The parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, spread by triatomine vectors, affects over 100 mammalian species
throughout the Americas, including humans, in whom it causes Chagas’ disease

© All Rights Reserved

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The parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, spread by triatomine vectors, affects over 100 mammalian species
throughout the Americas, including humans, in whom it causes Chagas’ disease

© All Rights Reserved

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Acta Tropica

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/actatropica

Trypanosoma cruzi vectorhost contact rates

Kamuela E. Yong a,b,e , Anuj Mubayi a,c , Christopher M. Kribs a,d,

a

Simon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational & Modeling Sciences Center, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA

School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA

School of Mathematical and Natural Sciences, Arizona State University, Phoenix, AZ 85069, USA

d

Mathematics Department, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX 76019, USA

e

Mathematics/Science Subdivision, University of Hawai'i West O'ahu, Kapolei, HI 96707, USA

b

c

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Article history:

Received 15 May 2015

Received in revised form 25 June 2015

Accepted 29 June 2015

Available online 26 July 2015

Keywords:

Trypanosoma cruzi

Agent-based model

Contact rates

Host irritability

a b s t r a c t

The parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, spread by triatomine vectors, affects over 100 mammalian species

throughout the Americas, including humans, in whom it causes Chagas disease. In the U.S., only a few

autochthonous cases have been documented in humans, but prevalence is high in sylvatic hosts (primarily raccoons in the southeast and woodrats in Texas). The sylvatic transmission of T. cruzi is spread by the

vector species Triatoma sanguisuga and Triatoma gerstaeckeri biting their preferred hosts and thus creating

multiple interacting vectorhost cycles. The goal of this study is to quantify the rate of contacts between

different host and vector species native to Texas using an agent-based model framework. The contact

rates, which represent bites, are required to estimate transmission coefcients, which can be applied to

models of infection dynamics. In addition to quantitative estimates, results conrm host irritability (in

conjunction with host density) and vector starvation thresholds and dispersal as determining factors for

vector density as well as hostvector contact rates.

2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

At the core of infectious disease transmission are contact processes, through which a pathogen is passed from infective to

susceptible individuals, whether members of the same population (directly transmitted infections) or host and vector. Implicit in

such processes are the movements of individuals, which determine

which others are in close enough proximity for the pathogen to be

spread. For vector-borne infections in particular, vector dispersal in

search of hosts on which to feed is the engine that drives the spread

of the disease. For many disease vectors, such as mosquitoes, feeding contacts and dispersal are completely aligned: each bloodmeal

typically involves a new host, since hosts are plentiful. Other vectors, however, nest with individual hosts, only leaving in search of

a new one when the old host dies or fails to return to the nest.

For these vectors, the acts of feeding and dispersal are distinct,

and occur with markedly different frequencies, raising the question of which gives the better measure of disease transmission

Arlington, Box 19408, Arlington, TX 76019-0408, USA.

E-mail address: kribs@uta.edu (C.M. Kribs).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.actatropica.2015.06.025

0001-706X/ 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

and spread (since repeated contacts between the same host and

vector have limited transmission potential). This is the case with

the triatomine vectors responsible for the spread of the protozoan

parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas disease.

T. cruzi, which is native to the Americas from the southern U.S.

down to the southern cone, is carried by numerous species of triatomine vector, most of the genus Triatoma (and each limited to a

particular habitat), and transmitted to over 100 mammalian host

species. Triatomine bugs pass through ve distinct instar stages

before reaching adulthood, requiring at least one bloodmeal at

each stage. Unlike mosquitoes and many other disease vectors, triatomines opportunity to feed is limited by host availability and

irritability (Schoeld, 1982; Schoeld et al., 1986): nymphs typically remain in the nest or den where they hatch, while adults often

disperse in search of new hosts (Guerenstein and Lazzari, 2009;

Noireau and Dujardin, 2010). Primary hosts such as raccoons (Procyon lotor) and opossums (Didelphis spp.) typically have multiple

sleeping places throughout their range and move within that territory to forage, returning to a given den only after several days

(Rabinowitz and Pelton, 1986; Shirer and Fitch, 1970). (Woodrats

move less but have been known to use as many as 5 different nests

separated by hundreds of meters (Merkelz and Kerr, 2002).) In

addition, when too many vectors attempt to feed on a given host,

22

that host takes measures to defend itself, including leaving the den

altogether. Since only adult triatomines have wings, and those are

more efcient for gliding than ying, it is easier for a host to defend

itself against them than against insects such as mosquitoes. Indeed,

et al., 2003) indicated that host

irritability plays an important role in vector demographics. When

hosts return to a given den or nest often enough, if there are few

enough vectors there, they may all be able to feed often enough to

survive, mature and reproduce, but when a nest overpopulates, or

a host is gone too long, adult triatomines will disperse in search of

another host, making use of chemical, thermal, and even infrared

cues to detect hosts and infested nests (Lazzari et al., 2013). It is the

successful move to a new host, called host switching, that allows T.

cruzi to spread, within and even between host populations.

Several modeling studies have already examined the structure underlying hostvector contacts for T. cruzi, in particular

how the contact rates saturate in host or vector populations, as

a function of the average vector-to-host ratio (Kribs-Zaleta, 2004,

2006, 2009, 2010a,b; Pelosse and Kribs-Zaleta, 2012). (Transmission dynamics are even further complicated by the fact that some

hosts, as opportunistic feeders, sometimes prey on the vectors they

nd nearby, but this study focuses on classical vector-initiated

hostvector contacts.) This saturation can affect vector population

dynamics, T. cruzi transmission dynamics, and even which strain

of T. cruzi is advantaged in a cycle where multiple cocirculating

strains compete for access to hosts. However, answers to all of

these questions require estimates of the basic hostvector contact rates and related quantities, which remain extremely difcult

to measure directly in situ. Laboratory studies have investigated

individual vector species preferred feeding frequencies (and average time to defecation, which is key to gauging the efciency of

classical stercorarian transmission of T. cruzi) but cannot take into

account the real availability of hosts. One notable study included

both lab and eld components, measuring the mating duration

and frequency, egg size, number and weight, laying and hatching

times, hatch proportion and number of ovipositions, developmental periods and longevity of each stage including adults, feeding

preferences on eleven host species including nonmammalian vertebrates, feeding and defecation times, volume and weight of

bloodmeals, time to starvation, intraspecic parasitism, T. cruzi

infection prevalence, nocturnal ight activity levels, and host association of three triatomine species (Triatoma sanguisuga, Triatoma

gerstaeckeri, Rhodnius prolixus), in some cases as a function of temperature (Pippin, 1970). However, it did not capture hostvector

contact frequencies in the eld. (It also revealed some discrepancies

between laboratory and eld-based measures of the same quantities.) A recent study provided a comprehensive review of host and

vector demographics and T. cruzi prevalence in species present in

the U.S. (Kribs-Zaleta, 2010a), but the average hostvector contact

rates could only be back-estimate assuming observed prevalences

represented endemic steady states, and even then the rates incorporated probability of infection given a contact. In cycles where

multiple contact-related transmission avenues exist (e.g., stercorarian and oral), direct estimates of these rates remain key to

understanding T. cruzi transmission.

Given the difculties inherent in direct measurement, mathematical models offer one potential way to estimate contact rates

using the basic behavioral tendencies measured in laboratory studies. Compartmental models have long been used to describe the

collective behaviors of populations using relatively little biological

information; however, in recent years agent-based modeling has

developed as a means of using more detailed information at the

individual level to build up emergent properties of systems comprising many individuals (DeAngelis and Gross, 1992; Grimm and

Railsbeck, 2005). As Gaff wrote (Gaff, 2011), Agent-based models,

also called individual-based models, are computer-based models

that represent the individuals of the population. The activity of

these agents can be compiled to obtain population-level measures

of a biological system at a given scale. Gaff, for instance, developed an agent-based model (ABM) of deertick interaction (Gaff,

2011) in which tick vectors (Ixodes spp.) passed through four life

stages (egg, larva, nymph, adult), with each transition requiring a

single bloodmeal, and found that the ABM predicted signicantly

lower infection rates than a classical ordinary differential equations

(ODE) model with analogous parameter values, due to the ABMs

discrete, limited host interactions for each vector (contrasted with

the continuous hostvector interactions implied by the ODE system). ABMs have also been used to study T. cruzi transmission to

humans (Chagas disease). A group of French researchers (Barbu

et al., 2010; Slimi et al., 2009) used a spatially explicit cellular

automaton model with discrete individuals to study spatial infestation patterns of a Mexican rural village by the T. cruzi vector

Triatoma dimidiata, nding that the constant inux from the forest surrounding the village made the villages periphery the most

important place to apply vector control (insecticide). Galvo et al.

(2008) used a within-host ABM to study the impact of T. cruzi at

the cellular level on cardiac tissue regeneration following a bone

marrow stem cell transplant. Devillers et al. (2008) used an ABM

to study the competition for hosts between two T. cruzi types in

South America, nding that sylvatic reservoir hosts were necessary in order to explain the observed prevalences in humans. The

present study thus proposes to use known information about the

behaviors of individual sylvatic hosts and vectors to study the basic

contact mechanisms (vector feeding and host switching) responsible for the spread of T. cruzi in sylvatic reservoir cycles, through the

framework of an ABM. Model simulations will use the contexts of

raccoons and (separately) woodrats (Neotoma micropus), common

hosts in the southern U.S., and their associated vectors T. sanguisuga

and T. gerstaeckeri (Kjos et al., 2009), although the model structure

can be applied to other hosts and vector species as well.

The primary research questions are thus: How often do

vectorhost contacts really occur? and what impact does host

irritability have on that rate? (A related question is, how often

does host switching occur within a given cycle?) Underlying these

questions is the more complex issue of how best to use these baseline rates to describe the rate at which T. cruzi actually spreads.

The following section details the model structure, built around the

key elements of host and adult vector movement and demographics, and vector feeding and maturation. Later sections present and

interpret results obtained from simulations; this study will focus

on the relationship among host irritability and vector dispersal and

starvation, and how that relationship drives contact rates.

2. Model

The ABM developed for this study was coded in NetLogo 5.0.3

(Wilensky, 1999). The model description in this section follows

the ODD (Overview, Design concepts, Details) protocol for describing ABMs (Grimm et al., 2006, 2010) using the complete required

format.

2.1. Purpose

The ABM developed for this study uses information from the

scientic literature about the demographics and movement of individual hosts (raccoons or woodrats) and vectors (T. sanguisuga

and/or T. gerstaeckeri), and about the feeding preferences of vectors, to estimate the rates at which vectors feed on hosts and switch

hosts in the eld, as a function of host irritability level (maximum

number of bites tolerated by a host in one night) and transmission

cycle (host species). The resulting estimates will inform the current understanding of how the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi spreads

at the population level in sylvatic settings.

2.2. Entities, state variables, and scales

The entities (agents) in the model include hosts (raccoons and

woodrats), vectors (T. sanguisuga and T. gerstaeckeri), and homes

(raccoon dens and woodrat nests). Hosts have counters for the

number of vectors of each species trying to bite them on that time

step (for purposes of determining host irritability the counters are

reset at each time step). Vectors likewise have counters marking

whether or not they try to bite a given host type during the present

time step; hunger counters, marking the number of turns (days)

since last feeding; variables recording the types of patch in which

they currently and most recently resided, for purposes of marking

host type switching across cycles (not implemented in this study);

and two lists describing their personal feeding histories, marking

the time-index and host-ID at each feeding (stored to a global list

at death). Homes have counts of the number of juvenile vectors

of each species living there, as well as a host absence counter,

which also serves as a hunger counter for the juveniles. For simplicity, homes are assumed permanent, created at setup and never

destroyed. All agents also have (x, y) coordinates (for homes these

are xed).

The world consists of a 75 75 grid, with opposite boundaries

identied for continuity (left to right and top to bottom, as is commonly done, but note this creates a torus geometry). Cell diameters

were set at 10.4 m, since this reects the approximate average minimum distance between woodrat nests as well as mean distance

traveled daily by a woodrat (Rogers et al., 2010; Raun, 1966; Thies

et al., 1996); thus the model simulates an area of about 60 ha or

150 acres. Each patch (grid cell) has a landscape property taking

on one of the three possible values (permanent over the course

of a simulation): wooded (raccoon habitat), prickly pear cactus

(woodrat habitat), or neither. For the purpose of this study, simulations were run with all cells of the same landscape type (wooded

for raccoons, or prickly pear for woodrats).

The time step used is one day, since hostvector contacts only

occur when hosts return to their sleeping places to rest after foraging. Each simulation was run for 100 days.

2.3. Process overview and scheduling

Following setup (q.v.), each day the following ve routines occur

in the order given below, until either the specied number of days

passes or there are no more vectors, whichever occurs rst:

vectors of each type move (disperse if hungry enough);

host births and deaths;

vector natural death, feeding, and starvation;

homes (nests and dens) are updated: primarily juvenile vector

birth, death and maturation.

Basic principles: In accordance with research literature, raccoons

are assumed to be solitary and have several sleeping places across

their territory, while woodrats have relatively few and may share

a nest (generally of the other gender, as for breeding, but in this

model gender is not made explicit, and nests may simply hold up

to two woodrats at a time). Juvenile vectors of either species are

assumed incapable of dispersal (since they have no wings and are

commonly found in nests or dens), while adult vectors are assumed

to disperse only to avoid starvation. Hosts are assumed to be able

23

more than a given number of bites per night (the host irritability

threshold). Bites by juvenile vectors are assumed to provoke less

irritation than bites by adult vectors, by a given factor.

Emergence: The models primary outputs are measures of vector feeding and host-switching rates, at the population level but

compiled from individuals.

Adaptation: In foraging from day to day, hosts are assumed to

seek (and nd) the least-recently visited site within a days range;

hosts are also assumed able to defend themselves against excessive

bites per night. Adult vectors are assumed to get hungry a certain

number of days after feeding (threshold 1), disperse in search of

a (new) host after another period (threshold 2), and nally starve

if they have not fed after another period (threshold 3); when dispersing, adult vectors are also assumed able to nd occupied homes

within a days travel radius.

Sensing: Hosts are assumed to be able to detect which part(s) of

their home ranges (represented by dens or nests) within a single

days travel have had longest to replenish food sources. Vectors

are assumed to be able to detect their own hunger thresholds, and

dispersing vectors are assumed to be able to detect hosts located

within a single days travel of their present locations.

Interaction: The primary interactions of interest involve vectors

feeding on hosts, within the connes of a den or nest, subject to the

host irritability threshold (thereby making competition for access

to hosts an indirect interaction between vectors). Births of new

hosts or juvenile vectors require the presence of an adult of the

given species, an indirect interaction.

Stochasticity: In setup (q.v.), the spatial conguration of landscape types (but not the numbers of cells of each landscape type)

is random, as are which specic nests and/or dens are infested

with vectors (but not the numbers of each that are infested),

which nests/dens serve as initial locations for the hosts, and which

infested nests/dens serve as initial locations for the adult vectors.

The initial value for each homes host absence counter is taken

from a uniform distribution bounded above by the vector dispersal

threshold. Initial numbers of juvenile vectors of each species in

infested homes are drawn from exponential distributions with the

corresponding expected means.

During runtime, juvenile vector births, survival, and maturation,

adult vector survival, and host birth and survival are all taken from

binomial distributions; once the numbers are determined, which

host or adult vector dies is random. Newborn hosts are placed

randomly in a home of the appropriate type with room for them.

Host movement (from one home to another), when not triggered

by host irritability (excessive bites), is determined stochastically

with a given probability, and when either (a) there are multiple

homes within a days travel for that host with maximal host absence

counter, or (b) there are no unoccupied homes within a days travel

but there are homes with room for the given host, the home to

which the host moves is chosen randomly. When an adult vector

disperses without reaching an occupied home immediately, its distance traveled in a day is drawn from an exponential distribution,

and its direction is random. When too many vectors attempt to

bite a given host, which adult vectors are denied feeding is chosen

randomly.

Observation: At the end of each simulation, the collected individual feeding histories (timestamp and host ID for each successful

feeding, as well as timestamps of birth and death, from which one

can determine feeding and host-switching rates) of all adult vectors

are stored for analysis, as well as the collected dispersal results. In

addition, NetLogos Behavior Space allows one to tabulate the number(s) of agents in various states at each time step. In this study

the numbers of vector bites, hosts, and vectors were recorded at

each time step in order to calculate total instantaneous per-host or

per-vector contact rates.

24

2.5. Initialization

Setup begins by assigning each grid cell a landscape type

(wooded raccoon habitat, prickly pear cactus woodrat habitat, or

neither): each of the two habitat types has a preset percentage of

cells, and the corresponding number of cells is then chosen randomly from the grid and assigned. Next appropriate numbers of

woodrat nests and raccoon dens are created, based in each case on

the number of homes per host and number of hosts, of the given

type. Each home is randomly placed on a grid cell of the appropriate habitat type not already occupied by a home. Since homes will

later be seeded with vectors, each homes host absence counter is

assigned by a draw from a uniform distribution on [0, th ], where th is

the vector dispersal hunger threshold (if the host absence counter

exceeded th , the adult vectors would all have left).

Next hosts are created (raccoons and woodrats), each according

to the preset densities (and habitat size), and placed randomly in

unoccupied homes (woodrats are allowed to be placed up to 2 in

a nest, as with breeding pairs although no genders are assigned

explicitly). Their bite counters are initialized to 0.

Homes are then infested with juvenile vectors according to preset infestation percentages for each home type. The number of

juvenile T. sanguisuga in an infested nest is drawn from an exponential distribution whose mean is calculated as follows: The given

per-area vector density is multiplied by the area of the total grid

(in m2 ), scaled down by the [preset, initial] proportion of vectors

which are juveniles, by the proportion of the grid which consists of

woodrat habitat, and by the [preset, initial] proportion of vectors in

a nest which are T. sanguisuga. The numbers of juvenile T. gerstaeckeri in an infested nest, and of juvenile T. sanguisuga in an infested

den, are calculated similarly. Analogous (but simpler) calculations

yield the [deterministic] numbers of adult vectors of each species

in the entire grid; the corresponding adult vectors are then created

and randomly placed in homes already infested with juveniles of

the given species, once their counters and lists are initialized (to 0).

Their patch types are also then set to mark their initial host species

afliation.

Finally, the global result lists that will store dispersal outcomes

and vector feeding histories are initialized (as empty).

2.6. Input data

The model does not use input data to represent time-varying

processes. However, in order to explore the effect of the host

irritability threshold on vector feeding rates, host irritability was

varied across experiments (each experiment consisting of 100 simulations using identical parameter values), set at either 2 or 10 bites

per night. In addition, one set of experiments was run with raccoons

as the only hosts and T. sanguisuga as the only vectors, while a different set of experiments involved woodrat hosts only, and both

species of vector (since both are found in woodrat nests).

Model parameters, available as user inputs in interactive mode,

are summarized in Table 1 and addressed in the following subsection.

2.7. Submodels

1. Move hosts

(a) Move woodrats

Each woodrat is polled in turn to determine whether the

total number of attempted vector bites (calculated as the

sum of three quantities: the number of adult T. sanguisuga

in the present nest which wish to feed as evidenced by their

woodrat bite counters [being positive], the number of adult T.

gerstaeckeri in the nest which wish to feed, and the total number of juvenile vectors in the nest, rescaled both for relative

the host irritability threshold. If not, then a random draw

(from a uniform distribution on the unit interval) is compared with the set probability of switching nests (if less, host

dispersal should occur regardless of irritability). When either

of the two trigger conditions is met, if any unoccupied nests

are within a days travel, the woodrat moves to a randomly

chosen one from among those longest-unoccupied (i.e., with

greatest host absence counter). Otherwise, when dispersing,

the woodrat moves to any randomly chosen nest with no

more than 1 woodrat presently occupying it.

(b) Move raccoons

Raccoons decide whether, and where, to move according to

the same algorithm as for woodrats, except that dens have no

T. gerstaeckeri, and raccoons have different travel distances

and probabilities than woodrats.

2. Move vectors

(a) Move T. gerstaeckeri

Each adult vector, in turn, disperses if its hunger counter

meets or exceeds the dispersal hunger threshold. If any occupied nests are within a days travel (distance drawn from

an exponential distribution with the given mean) the vector enters the nearest one. In this case, the vectors previous

and current patch types, and the global list of dispersal outcomes, are updated. If no occupied nests are within reach,

the vector travels a random distance (from the exponential

distribution) in a random direction.

(b) Move T. sanguisuga

T. sanguisuga disperse like T. gerstaeckeri except that they

are assumed to prefer raccoons over woodrats, so when dispersing, if there is an occupied den within a days travel the

vector enters the nearest one; if not, then the vector checks

for occupied nests as before.

3. Update hosts

(a) Update woodrats

First the number of woodrats to be born is drawn from a

binomial distribution where n is the number n of woodrats

on the grid and p is the baseline birth probability scaled by

the logistic factor (1 N/K) (where K is the carrying capacity). The given number of newborn woodrats is created, each

randomly placed in a nest with room for it, and its counters

initialized to 0.

Next the number of woodrats to survive is likewise drawn

from a binomial distribution with a given probability. The

number to die is then calculated by subtraction, and the given

number of woodrats are chosen randomly to die.

(b) Update raccoons

Raccoon births and deaths are determined similarly to

woodrats, but with their own probabilities.

4. Update vectors

(a) Update T. gerstaeckeri (TG)

First, the number of natural deaths of adult TG vectors on

the grid is determined (by subtracting from the total number

a random draw from a binomial distribution with given survival probability). For the given number of deaths, the vectors

are selected randomly, their feeding histories are ended and

appended to the global lists of feeding histories (host IDs and

times), and they die.

Next, the surviving vectors and woodrats woodratTG

bite counters are reset to 0, and each vector is examined

concurrently to determine if (a) its hunger counter meets

or exceeds the feeding hunger threshold and (b) there is a

woodrat there. If so, its bite counter, and the corresponding one of a (randomly chosen if not unique) woodrat there

are incremented by 1. Once all adult TG have been polled,

any woodrats with positive TG bite counters are polled

25

Table 1

User input parameters (App. refers to Appendix).

Parameter

Denition

Value

Reference

grid size

cell diameter

percent wooded

percent prickly

raccoon dns

woodrat dns

dens/raccoon

nests/woodrat

den infest prop

nest infest prop

vec density

juvprop

nestGprop

Length & width of a grid cell

Proportion of cells which are raccoon habitat

Proportion of cells which are woodrat habitat

Initial density of raccoons

Initial density of woodrats

Ratio of dens per raccoon

Ratio of nests per woodrat

% of dens initially infested with vectors

% of nests initially infested with vectors

Vector population density

[Initial] proportion of vector pop. which are juveniles

[Initial] proportion of vectors in a woodrat nest which

are T. gerstaeckeri

75 cells

10.4 m

0 or 100

100 or 0

rac

0.08 acre

wr

9.3 acre

9.25

2.1

70.5%

70.5%

vec

128 acre

0.4785

0.4

N/A

Raun (1966), Rogers et al. (2010), Thies et al. (1996)

N/A

N/A

Kribs-Zaleta (2010a)

Kribs-Zaleta (2010a), Raun (1966)

Shirer and Fitch (1970), App.

Merkelz and Kerr (2002)

App.

Eads et al. (1963), Pippin (1970)

Burkholder et al. (1980)

Eads et al. (1963), Pippin (1970), App.

Eads et al. (1963), Pippin (1970), App.

tb

leaving due to irritation

# of juvenile vector bites equiv. to an adult bite

Daily probability a raccoon changes den

Daily probability a woodrat changes nest

Maximum distance a raccoon travels in one day

maximum distance a woodrat travels in one day

bites

210 night

(varies)

2.06

0.685

0.25

990 m

27.14 m

Castanera

et al. (2003)

7 days

14 days

Galvo et al. (2001), Pippin (1970)

36 days

Time since last feeding before a vector disperses to

seek a new host

Maximum adult vector survival time without feeding

(starvation threshold)

Average daily dispersal distance for adult vectors

1000 m

App.

RaccoonCC

WoodratCC

prb

pw

b

prs

pw

s

Density carrying capacity for woodrats

Daily prob. that a raccoon births one child

Daily prob. that a woodrat births one child

Daily raccoon survival probability

Daily woodrat survival probability

rac

0.144 acre

wr

21 acre

0.00246

0.00492

0.99891

0.99727

Kribs-Zaleta (2010a)

Kribs-Zaleta (2010a)

Kribs-Zaleta (2010a), App.

Kribs-Zaleta (2010a), App.

Kribs-Zaleta (2010a), App.

Kribs-Zaleta (2010a), App.

psb

0.137

0.355

pssj

juvenile

Daily probability that an adult T. gerstaeckeri hatches a

juvenile

Daily survival probability for T. sanguisuga juveniles

0.99818

psj

0.99586

juv starv

psd

g

pd

pssa

g

psa

Daily maturation prob. for T. sanguisuga juveniles

Daily maturation prob. for T. gerstaeckeri juveniles

Daily survival probability for T. sanguisuga adults

Daily survival probability for T. gerstaeckeri adults

31.5 days

0.00122

0.00276

0.99999

0.99650

Kribs-Zaleta (2010a), Pippin (1970), App.

Pippin (1970), App.

Kribs-Zaleta (2010a), App.

Pippin (1970), App.

juv intense

mr

mw

dr

dw

tw

th

ts

g

pb

woodrats, the number of adult T. sanguisuga in that nest with

hunger counter meeting or exceeding the feeding hunger

threshold is added to the total number of juvenile vectors

in the nest rescaled for relative intensity and frequency of

bite; if the sum exceeds the host irritability threshold, then

the host is considered irritated, and the number of successful

adult TG feeding is set at the host irritability threshold multiplied by the proportion of desired bites which were adult TG

(the product is rounded down to a whole number). The number of unsuccessful TG biters (calculated by subtraction) is

then determined, and that many attempted biters then have

their bite counters reset back to zero.

Finally, the adult vectors are again polled concurrently: the

successful biters have their hunger counters reset and their

feeding histories updated, and those who did not feed have

their hunger counters incremented, and those whose hunger

counters meet the starvation threshold have their feeding

histories retired and appended to the global lists, and then

they die.

Castanera

et al. (2003), Pippin (1970), App.

Rogers et al. (2010), Shirer and Fitch (1970)

App.

Rogers et al. (2010), Shirer and Fitch (1970)

Raun (1966), Rogers et al. (2010)

First, natural death of adult vectors is determined, as for

TG but with a different survival probability. Next, host and

vector TS bite counters are reset. Then the vectors are polled

concurrently to see if their hunger counters meet or exceed

the feeding threshold. If a woodrat is present there, the

vector tries to bite it (host and vector bite counters are incremented); if a raccoon is present there, the vector tries to bite

it (order is irrelevant since woodrats and raccoons do not

share habitat). Following this, woodrats are polled concurrently to see which have positive TS bite counters. For those

that do, their host irritability is determined, by comparing

to the irritability threshold the number of attempted bites

(calculated as the sum of the woodrats two species-specic

vector bite counters plus the total number of juvenile vectors

there, rescaled as before). For irritated hosts, the number of

successful TS biters is calculated as the irritability threshold multiplied by the proportion of attempted bites made

by adult TS. The appropriate number of unsuccessful biters

are chosen at random and their bite counters reset. Then

26

have no attempted TG bites to tally). Finally, each adult TS

is polled concurrently either to reset or to increment their

hunger counter, and those who did not feed and now have

a hunger counter at the starvation threshold die as detailed

for TG.

5. Update homes

(a) Update nests (juvenile vectors)

Woodrat nests are polled concurrently: if unoccupied,

their host absence counters are incremented, and if the host

absence counter meets the juvenile starvation threshold, the

juveniles in the nest die. If occupied, the host absence counter

is reset to zero. Next, the number of juvenile vectors of each

species in that nest is incremented by a draw from a binomial

distribution with n the number of adult vectors of the given

species in the nest, and p the species birth rate. Next, the

number of juvenile vectors of each species in the nest surviving to the next time step is determined by a draw from a

binomial distribution with given probability. Then the number of juvenile vectors of each species there maturing into

adults is also determined by a draw from a binomial distribution with given probability; the corresponding adult vectors

are created, with properties appropriately initialized, and

the number of juveniles there of that type is decremented

correspondingly.

(b) Update dens (juvenile vectors)

The host absence counter and juvenile vector population

of each raccoon den are updated concurrently in a similar

way as for nests, but with different probabilities and no T.

gerstaeckeri.

Parameter estimates given in Table 1 are discussed in more

detail in Appendix, and in a separate literature review (Rogers et al.,

2010).

3. Results

Initial analysis was made from 20 simulations for each of the

four scenarios (raccoon or woodrat cycles; host irritability threshold tb = 2 or 10 bites per host per night), and then extended to 100

simulations. In all simulations the host populations held steady

near their initial [equilibrium] values (and will therefore not be further discussed), but the vector densities varied substantially over

time. Juvenile biting rates were computed (and are here reported)

in units of adult-equivalent bites, and should be multiplied by the

equivalence factor of 2.06 given in Table 1 to get the number of

juveniles per host or vector per night that fed.

Raccoons: The relatively low host density (compared to

woodrats) coupled with a low host irritability threshold severely

curtails vectors ability to feed, with mass starvation dropping adult

vector density from 10,000 over the entire grid to a steady mean

(across simulations) of just 662.5 (tb = 2) or 1630 (tb = 10). The juvenile TS population, which starts out in growth mode, undergoes

a similar reset, dropping an order of magnitude from a high of

nearly 20,000 to a nal mean of 2023 (tb = 2) and 3900 (tb = 10).

The resulting per capita biting rates for juvenile TS fall during the

initial growth period but recover when the adult population undergoes starvation, thereafter leveling out at a fairly steady 0.000978

(tb = 2) and 0.003654 (tb = 10) adult bites per juvenile per day. The

per capita adult TS biting rates, on the other hand, begin low and

then rise when the juvenile population begins to starve as well,

settling at a markedly higher 0.03735 and 0.04600 adult bites per

adult per day. From the hosts perspective, meanwhile, we see three

phases: if tb = 2, the average host receives 1.51.75 bites per night

(less than the maximum of 2 since raccoons spend some nights

juveniles, and nally nearly all adults. Graphs for all of these trends

are given as an example in Fig. 1 (for tb = 2; the overall shape is similar for tb = 10). The fact that the total number of bites an average host

received per night for tb = 10 remained well above 9 throughout

the reset period underlines the key role played by host irritability

in controlling vector density, and the average interval between

bites for a given vector, which may be calculated as the reciprocal of the corresponding per capita rate, offers a key measure of

survivability when compared with the starvation threshold (from

Table 1, 36 days for adults and 31.5 days for juveniles): The interval

remains well above 100 days for juveniles over time for both tb = 2

and tb = 10, indicating that the relative scarcity of raccoons and the

consequent infrequency of their visits to each den are not enough

to sustain substantial juvenile populations (caveat: this model does

not take into account the visits to these same dens made by other

hosts such as opossums and skunks), while for adult vectors the

mean feeding interval drops from over 120 days to under 27 days for

both tb values, indicating arrival at a sustainable level. In summary,

under such difcult feeding conditions vector densities inevitably

drop, with adult bites dominating juvenile feeding at the nal

levels.

Woodrats: The relative abundance of woodrats meant in simulations that regardless of irritability threshold they visited infested

nests often enough to prevent the mass juvenile starvation that

occurred in raccoon dens, with the result that the juvenile populations of both TS and TG showed steady growth (although it was

concave down for tb = 2 and concave up for tb = 10). It should be

noted that this is in part a limitation of the model, which for

computational efciency calculated [successful] juvenile bites but

determined juvenile starvation on a per-nest, not per-juvenile,

basis. Under low irritability threshold (tb = 2), the adult vector densities for both species still underwent a starvation reset between

23 and 37 days; the TS mean dropped from 6053 to a more or less

level 1540 vectors across the grid, while the TG density quickly

returned to growth mode which continued past 100 days. With

hosts both plentiful and more bite-tolerant (tb = 10), the simulations showed consistent and accelerating growth for juvenile and

adult vector densities of both species, suggesting that the true value

of tb is lower. Per capita biting rates for tb = 2 for both juvenile

and adult TS declined steadily over time, with respective means

of 0.02680 and 0.009870 bites per day per vector over the 100

days, both too low to beat starvation, suggesting a struggle at

least in the short term for TS under these conditions. The TG

rates leveled off for both juveniles and adults at tb = 2, but at even

lower levels, 0.006354 and 0.00207 bites per vector per day, suggesting that most vectors do starve, compensating for the high

reproduction rate. Mean per-host juvenile biting rates were 0.5333

(TS) and 0.3003 (TG) per night over 100 days, and around 0.01

for adults. The per capita biting rates for a high biting threshold

(tb = 10), meanwhile, declined over time due to competition with

growing numbers, but at rates of 0.06445 and 0.0678 bites per

vector per night for TS (resp. juveniles and adults) and 0.04261

and 0.04873 for TG, all well above the critical rate to avoid starvation. Although the juvenile bites dominate the adult bites in

absolute number due to their higher densities, the totals per host

per night still fall well short of the bite ceiling, suggesting that if

woodrats were able to tolerate so many bites per night their associated vector densities would be markedly higher. For comparison

purposes, the mean adult vector densities for both species and both

irritability thresholds are graphed in Fig. 2 (note vertical scales

differ).

Lastly, we consider the outcomes of the adult vector dispersals

motivated by hunger. Fig. 3 presents the six histograms showing the

frequency of duration of dispersals from 1 to 23 days (with 23 days,

the last bar, representing starvation); underneath each histogram

20 000

0.0008

15 000

0.0006

10 000

0.0004

5000

0.0002

20

40

60

80

1.5

1.0

0.5

20

100

27

40

60

80

100

20

10 000

0.04

8000

0.03

40

60

80

100

1.5

6000

1.0

0.02

4000

0.5

0.01

2000

20

40

60

80

100

20

40

60

80

100

20

40

60

80

100

Fig. 1. Graphs of mean (top) juvenile and (bottom) adult TS densities and biting rates over time, for 100 days, on raccoons with tb = 2 bites/raccoon/day: left, vector densities;

center, per-vector biting rates; right, per-host biting rates (rates in adult bites per day).

Fig. 2. Graphs of mean adult vector densities over time for 100 days associated with woodrats with (top) tb = 2, (bottom) tb = 10: left, TS; right, TG.

successful dispersals. As can be seen in the gure, although the

increase in host tolerance reduces both the proportion of failure

and the mean length of successful dispersal, it has a much more

dramatic effect on vectors associated with woodrats than on those

associated with raccoons. In both vector species, starvation prior to

nding a new host becomes extremely rare, and it takes on average

much less time to nd one. This is consistent with the signicant

difference seen in vector densities and biting rates as woodrat tolerance increases, relative to the impact of tb on raccoon-associated

vectors.

A preliminary look at the results of the simulations performed

for this study suggests that in practice dispersal in search of hosts

is not only common (consistent with observations in the literature, e.g., Pippin, 1970) but usually does result in switching to a

new host (rather than nding the previous one in a new location).

Although this model ignores territoriality in hosts, which may limit

vectors ability to disperse far enough to switch, the fact that the

overwhelming majority of bloodmeals involve a different host than

the previous bloodmeal helps explain the spread of parasites such

as T. cruzi within a host population.

4. Discussion

The preliminary results reported in this manuscript offer both

quantitative and qualitative descriptions of vectorhost interactions that are impractical to obtain via eld studies yet critical

to understanding the sylvatic transmission of parasites like T.

cruzi within and between reservoir cycles. To our knowledge, no

other studies of any kind have tried to estimate actual sylvatic

hostvector contact rates in the eld. In addition to offering baseline estimates of contact rates, the simulations made using the

agent-based model described herein conrm host irritability as a

main limiting factor (in conjunction with host density) for vector

population density, which in turn affects the contact rates per vector or per host. The relative scarcity of hosts like raccoons constrains

vector growth even for high bite tolerance, while the relative abundance of hosts like woodrats allows host irritability to play a crucial

role in the growth or decline of vector densities, as well as more

specically the success or failure (and duration) of vector dispersal,

which is the root of the host-switching that spreads the parasite.

Simulations of the transmission cycle involving raccoons and

T. sanguisuga showed that starvation/host unavailability would

28

TS/raccoon

TS/woodrat

TG/woodrat

0.07

0.05

0.06

0.15

0.04

Irritability

threshold 2

0.05

0.10

0.03

0.03

0.02

0.02

0.05

0.01

0.01

5

10

15

20

10

15

20

10

15

20

%starve: 16.36%

%starve: 3.98%

%starve: 4.52%

0.12

0.15

Irritability

threshold 10

0.04

0.25

0.10

0.05

10

15

20

0.10

0.20

0.08

0.15

0.06

0.10

0.04

0.05

0.02

5

10

15

20

10

15

20

%starve: 14.45%

%starve: 0.13%

%starve: 1.31%

Fig. 3. Frequency of duration of adult vector dispersals from 1 to 23 days for each vector/host combination (the last bar represents starvation/failure) and tb = 2 vs. 10, along

with failure proportion (%starve) and mean duration of successful dispersals (MDSD).

the densities reported in association with woodrats, regardless of

host irritability threshold; this suggests that the actual vector densities in raccoon dens are much lower, although further work is

needed to estimate true vector densities when other hosts such

as opossums and skunks which sometimes use the same dens as

raccoons (not necessarily at the same time) are included.

The decline in vector densities when woodrats bite tolerance

is limited to 2 per night, combined with their growth when that

tolerance is raised to 10, suggests that woodrats actual tolerance

is somewhere in between the two values, and further ne tuning

can produce an estimate of the irritability threshold consistent with

observed densities. The difference in densities and biting rates for T.

sanguisuga and T. gerstaeckeri in woodrat nests is also worth noting,

with values for the latter species (TG) consistently rising over time

in situations where those for the former species (TS) continue a

decline despite being more common in nests.

Quantitatively, then, the per-host contact rates approach the

host irritability threshold, except when both that threshold and

host density are high; likewise, when vector densities reach sustainable levels, the per-vector contact rates are on average just

high enough to avoid starvation, but not high enough to avoid

the need for dispersal. The exception was the scenario with

high host density (woodrats) and high bite tolerance (tb = 10), for

which the TS mean biting rates hovered around the frequency

(14 days)1 matching the dispersal threshold while TG mean

biting rates were approximately (22 days)1 over the 100-day

simulations.

Further work using this model will examine in detail the rates

at which individual vectors change hosts, as well as the rates of

host type switching, the mechanism for spreading parasites across

cycles.

Acknowledgments

KY was supported by NSF grant DMS-0946431; AM and CK

acknowledge the support of NSF grant DMS-1020880. The authors

(Rogers et al., 2010) a preliminary version of the present study.

Appendix. Parameter estimation

A.1. Host densities and homes

As noted in the main text, cell diameters were set at 10.4 m in

the model since this reects (Rogers et al., 2010) the approximate

minimum distance between woodrat nests in one study (Merkelz

and Kerr, 2002), the mean distance between nests in another study

(Thies et al., 1996), and the mean distance traveled daily by a

woodrat in a third (Raun, 1966). With a 75 75 grid, the resulting area is about 60 ha or 150 acres. Population densities can be

multiplied by the proportion of this area which contains suitable

habitat, in order to gure absolute population sizes.

Woodrat population density estimates vary by more than an

order of magnitude, cf. reviews in (Kribs-Zaleta, 2010a; Rogers

et al., 2010). (Some of the variation in published estimates may be

explained by seasonal uctuations.) Here we use 9.3 woodrats/acre

(23 woodrats/ha), which is both the mean found across all studies considered in (Kribs-Zaleta, 2010a) and the density found in

(Raun, 1966), although the cross-study mean found in (Rogers et al.,

2010) is lower, 5.79 woodrats/acre. Likewise the studies reviewed

in (Kribs-Zaleta, 2010a) found raccoon densities varying from 0.002

to 0.083 raccoons/acre in sylvatic sites and up to 0.5 raccoons/acre

in peridomestic settings and national parks in the U.S.; we here use

the average of 0.08 raccoons/acre (0.2 raccoons/ha) in sylvatic sites

given in (Kribs-Zaleta, 2010a).

The southern plains woodrat, Neotoma micropus, lives primarily

in shortgrass landscapes dominated by prickly pear cactus, where

they make their nests (and which serves as primary food source)

(Box, 1959; Braun and Mares, 1989; Conditt and Ribble, 1997; Raun,

1966). These woodrats live generally alone in single nests, although

males may range over multiple nests, some of them shared with

females (Braun and Mares, 1989; Merkelz and Kerr, 2002; Raun,

1966). An extensive 20-month study by Merkelz and Kerr found

the study (Merkelz and Kerr, 2002). They also found a roughly 1:1

sex ratio, with 24% of recaptured females and 69% of recaptured

males found at multiple nests. Overall they tagged 180 rats at 86

nests, for a nests/woodrat ratio of 2.1.

The probability of a woodrat changing nests from one day to

the next (for reasons other than host irritability) was estimated

at 1/4 by supposing that half of woodrats are female and do not

normally change nests, while the other half are male and change

nests on average every 2 days. We found no empirical estimates in

the literature for this quantity. The only major study of woodrat nest

use (Merkelz and Kerr, 2002) made 239 captures at 86 nests over

2292 trap-nights during 20 months, so each nest was checked an

average of 2292/86=26.65 times, for an average frequency of 1.33

times per month, not often enough to derive estimates for daily

change rates.

Shirer and Fitch (1970) studied the movements of four adult

raccoons, observed respectively in 4, 7, 12, and 14 different locations, for an average of 9.25 dens per raccoon. They also studied

four juvenile raccoons but did not disentangle the number of locations recorded for each. A literature review did not nd any data

on the proportion of raccoon dens (or opossum or skunk, which

often share dens, not necessarily simultaneously) infested with triatomines, so we use the proportion for woodrat nests as a proxy.

A.2. Vector density

Eads et al. (1963) dismantled 80 woodrat nests and found 390

Triatoma in 58 of 80 nests (72.5%): by life stage, 372 juveniles and

18 adults total, which gives a paltry 6.4 (mean) juveniles and 0.31

adults per infested nest, and 4.875 total vectors per overall nest; by

species, 226 T. sanguisuga, 133 T. gerstaeckeri, 31 Triatoma neotomae

by species (T. neotomae specialize in woodrats but are rare in Texas,

more common in Mexico), which gives T. sanguisuga a 1.7:1 advantage over T. gerstaeckeri (63.0%/37.0% excluding T. neotomae) in

nests. On rst glance the small numbers might seem to contradict

Burkholder et al.s estimated density (it would take 26.25 nests per

acre to replicate the observed 128 bugs/acre), but in fact Eads et al.

observe that what it really means is that adults are frequently out

foraging and not in the nest all the time. So we should expect to see

lots of dispersal in our simulations.

Pippin (1970) searched 142 nests and found 229 bugs in 85

nests (68.5%): by life stage, 213 nymphs and 16 adults total, or

2.5 juveniles and 0.19 adults per infested nest (range 122 total),

1.612 total vectors per overall nest; by species, 123 + 9 =132 T. sanguisuga (nymphs + adults), 90 + 7 =97 T. gerstaeckeri, for a 1.36:1

ratio T. sanguisuga:T. gerstaeckeri (57.6%/42.4%). The study includes

the following passage supporting the notion of widespread adult

dispersal:

The bugs were rarely found in the rats nests. The preferred

habitat appeared to be in cracks and crevices in tunnels and runways leading to the nest or in debris covering the nest. Nymphs

were occasionally found under logs and debris as far as 90 m

from the nest of any known host. The condition of most of the

bugs indicated they had not fed for some time. This was true

even when the bugs were within 60 cm of an occupied nest.

We take the averages from these two papers of 70.5% for nest

infestation proportion and 60%/40% T. sanguisugaT. gerstaeckeri ratio. Our estimates of 128 vectors/acre, 9.3 woodrats/acre,

2.1 nests/woodrat and 70.5% nest infestation, however, produce

an expected average 9.3 vectors per infested nest, compared to

Eads et al.s 6.71 and Pippins 2.69. Since the latter two studies

concentrated around nests, we interpret the difference to indicate

adults dispersed away from nests, and use the higher gure to seed

the model (all vectors begin in nests but adults may eventually

29

infested nest, we suppose a mean (of 6.4 and 2.5) 4.45 juveniles

and 9.3 4.45 = 4.85 adults, making juveniles represent 47.85% of

the vector population.

A.3. Host irritability, vector feeding and dispersal

et al., 2003) estimated

bites of the rst through third instars to contribute only 1/10 as

much to host irritability as an adult vectors bite, and bites of fourth

and fth instars to contribute 0.8 times as much. (In comparison,

Pippin found Pippin, 1970, Table 8 that the volume of blood taken

per bloodmeal increased by about 1/2 an order of magnitude per

instar stage for T. sanguisuga, and half as much for T. gerstaeckeri.)

They also estimated host irritability at between 2 and 10 bites per

day per host (described as vector density but given in units of per

day). Their results indicated that differentiating between nymphs

and adults contributions to host irritability was crucial to reproducing observed patterns in experimental data (although precise

differences between nymph stages were not), and that the host

irritability threshold does play an important role in vector density.

Here, we use Pippins (1970, Table 5) data on mean duration of

each instar stage for T. sanguisuga under varying (1830 C) and

constant (27 C) temperatures, and T. gerstaeckeri under varying

temperatures, to estimate 45% of juveniles in the rst three instars

and 55% in the last two, together with relative irritation factors

et al. (2003), to estimate an overall irritation factor of 0.485 for juveniles relative to adult bites, or

2.06 juvenile bites irritation-equivalent to 1 adult bite. (Data for

T. gerstaeckeri under constant temperature exhibited a markedly

different pattern, with only 24.3% of a juveniles life spent in the

rst three instars.) In comparison, a similar stagewise average of

bloodmeal size weighted by mean stage duration using Pippins

data produces an equivalence factor of 1.24 or 1.56 for T. sanguisuga

and 1.77 or 2.48 for T. gerstaeckeri juvenile bloodmeals to 1 adult

bloodmeal.

Although we found no direct studies of preferred feeding frequency for T. sanguisuga or T. gerstaeckeri, a 7-day interval is

consistent with results from the literature for other triatomine

species. Borges et al. reported a feeding frequency of once per week

for Triatoma brasiliensis (Borges et al., 2005). Other studies reported

mean times between bloodmeals ranging from 6.24 to 10.74 days

for some South American triatomines (Canals et al., 1999), 49 days

for some domestic South American triatomines (Catal, 1991), or

1.73.4 days for peridomestic populations of Triatoma infestans in

Argentina during spring and summer (Lpez et al., 1999). Ceballos

et al. (2005) wrote of Triatoma infestans, Mean daily feeding rates

decreased signicantly from 34% in spring to 23% in summer to 14%

and 18% in fall and winter, respectively; mean feeding intervals

were 2.9, 4.3, 7.0 and 5.6 days, respectively.

Pippin (1970) captured 698 T. gerstaeckeri using outdoor light

traps at night and found that only 2 had recently fed. He wrote that

their general appearance was similar to bugs which had not fed for

1421 days. This is consistent with Galvo et al.s study of Triatoma

infestans and the closely related Triatoma melanosoma (Galvo et al.,

2001), which found that the peak vector dispersal time was 14

days after feeding. The ten unfed females which Pippin then tested

for longevity survived from 4 to 22 days with a mean of 13. If we

suppose that bugs within less than 4 days of starvation were not

attracted to the traps, this allows up to at least 22 days survival postdispersal before starvation. (Note that the data in Pippins Table

12 for survival on one feeding, with means well over 100 days for

adults of both species, were collected under eld conditions during

the winter, beginning on November 1, 1966; the discrepancy with

the lower values here is consistent with other results from Pippin

which suggest that the bugs go dormant in the winter. Whether

30

assume that dispersal initiates 14 days after feeding, and starvation

occurs 36 days after feeding.

Pippin studied starvation longevity of adults in the lab, and of

adults and instars of all stages in the eld over the winter (beginning November 1); for T. sanguisuga there was a consistent factor

of 4.5 between lab longevity and outdoor winter longevity for both

sexes of adult, so applying the same factor to the winter survival of

nymphs, the average extrapolated starvation longevity for juveniles

is 31.5 days, consistent with the estimate above for adults.

A literature review found no studies with information on dispersal distances for T. sanguisuga or T. gerstaeckeri. Schoeld,

Lehane and colleagues conducted several studies on dispersal of

South American species including T. infestans and T. sordida and

found, in general, that of the bugs they released to disperse, about

half went nowhere (remaining 5 m or less from the release spot)

and the other half ew 50 m or more (most of them ew 100 m

or more and were lost to the researchers); in one case a vector

was found to have traveled 1350 m (Lehane and Schoeld, 1978;

Schoeld et al., 1991, 1992). Another set of researchers studying Triatoma dimidiata in Mexico (Ramirez-Sierra et al., 2010) bounded its

single-ight distance at between 95 m and 120 m, although the context of dispersal to houses in a small village from its periphery may

not represent the vectors maximum capacity. Aware of the possible effect of dispersal distance, we take a mean of 1000 m, but note

that preliminary simulations using much lower values resulted in

near-universal failure to nd new hosts.

A.4. Rates converted to probabilities

The vector reproduction rates (per capita per year) were calculated by taking the expressions given in Kribs-Zaleta (2010a, Supp.)

and removing the 60% survival-to-maturity probability. Likewise

vector longevities in the same source were broken down into timeto-maturation and adult lifespan. For each vector species, the 60%

survival-to-maturity proportion was then converted into a juvenile

j

mortality rate j by setting +m

= 0.6 (where m is the maturaj

were taken directly from Kribs-Zaleta (2010a). All base rates are

given in Table A1.

To convert these rates into daily probabilities, rst the units

were converted to days1 (by dividing per-year rates by 365.24).

Then for each rate, say , the probability of a given transition/event occurring or not occurring was determined using a

simple differential equation dx

= x, whence the proportion of

dt

the population which has not made the transition after T units of

time is x(T)/x(0) = eT , and the proportion that has made the transition (e.g., reproducing, maturing, dying) is then 1 eT . (Survival

is thus dened in terms of not dying.) These proportions were used

Table A1

Conversion of baseline event rates from literature into probabilities of the events

occurring in a single day (T.s. = T. Sanguisuga, T.g. = T. gerstaeckeri).

Parameter

Probability (1 day)

Raccoon birth

Woodrat birth

Raccoon death

Woodrat death

T.s. birth

T.g. birth

T.s. juv. death

T.g. juv. death

T.s. maturation

T.g. maturation

T.s. adult death

T.g. adult death

0.9/year

1.8/year

0.4/year

1/year

54/year

160/year

1.5/(2.25 year)

1.5/(361.9 day)

1/(2.25 year)

1/(361.9 day)

1/(525 day)

1/(285.2 day)

0.00246

0.00492

0.00109

0.00273

0.137

0.355

0.00182

0.00414

0.00122

0.00276

0.00190

0.00350

corresponds to the probabilities in a Poisson waiting process with

parameter .

Finally, since starvation and natural mortality [due to causes

other than starvation] are modeled separately in the ABM, we

adjusted the vector survival probabilities by increasing them to

offset the observed starvation rates, which were remarkably consistent across simulations. T. sanguisugas daily per capita starvation

rate in the model was observed at 0.00189, accounting for nearly

all adult deaths (total mortality estimated at 0.00190, cf. Table A1),

so the adult daily survival probability [due to other causes] rose to

0.99999.

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