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3/12/2015

Week

05

Model
Development
TI141317 Simulasi Sistem Industri

Contents

How do you prepare to do a simulation study?

What are the steps for doing a simulation study?

What are typical objectives for a simulation study?

What is required to successfully complete a


simulation project?

What are some pitfalls to avoid when doing


simulation?

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Contents

See Chapter One Why When What Simulation

Selecting an Application

Pre-eliminary activities

Software Selection
Personal Identification

Defining the Objective


Defining the Scope Of Work
- Model Scope
- Level Of Detail
- Data Gathering Responsibilities
- Planning Experimentation
- Form of results

Simulation Procedure

Defining Project Requirements


Pitfalls Why simulation projects fail

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Preliminary Activities

The decision to use simulation itself requires


some consideration. Is the application
appropriate for simulation? Are other
approaches equally as effective yet less
expensive? Hence we should know WWW
of simulation, what, why, when.
(see chapter one presentation)

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Preliminary Activities
1. Selecting an Application
Is the process well defined?

Is process information readily available?


Does the process have interdependencies?
Does the process exhibit variability?
Are the potential cost savings greater than the cost of
doing the study?
If it is a new process, is there time to perform a simulation
analysis?
If it is an existing process, would it be less costly to
experiment on the actual system?
Is management willing to support the project?
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Preliminary Activities
2. Personal identification

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Management assign a project leader who works alone


or with a project team

It may be more cost effective to hire a simulation


consultant than to do the simulation in-house

A simulation specialist should be assigned to lead and


an engineer (manager) who works closely with the
specialist should be assigned

Personnel must be identified and trained

The process owner should take an active role in the


project

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Preliminary Activities
3. Software selection

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Simulation software cant make a simulation succeed, but


it can make it fail

Selecting the right simulation software requires that an


assessment first be made to the simulation requirements.

Alternative products should be evaluated against those


requirements

Selection criteria: quality, features and capability, ease


of use, services, and cost

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Simulation Software

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Software
Arena
AutoMod
Awe Sim
Enterprise Dynamics
Extend
Flexsim
GPSS/H
Micro Saint
ProModel (MedModel, ServiceModel)
Quest
ShowFlow
SIGMA

Supplier
Rockwell Software
Brooks-PRI Automation
Frontstep, Inc.
Incontrol Enterprise Dynamics
Imagine That, Inc
Flexsim Software Products, Inc.
Wolverine Software Corporation
Micro Analysis and Design
ProModel Corporation
DELMIA Corporation
Webb Systems Limited
Custom Simulation

Simprocess

CACI Products Company

Simul8

Visual8 Corporation

SLX

Wolverine Software Corporation

Visual Simulation Environment

Orca Computer, Inc.

Witness

Lanner Group, Inc.

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Simulation Software

Feature

Spreadsheet

Programming
language

Specialist simulation
software

Range of application

Low

High

Medium

Modeling flexibility

Low

High

Medium

Duration of model build

Medium

Long

Short

Ease of use

Medium

Low

High

Ease of model validation

Medium

Low

High

Run-speed

Low

High

Medium

Time to obtain software skills

Short (medium for


macro use)

Long

Medium

Price

Low

Low

High

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Simulation Procedure
Step 1 : Define objective, scope, and requirements
Step 2 : Collect and analyze system data

Step 3 : Build the model


Step 4 : Validate the model
Step 5 : Conduct experiments

Step 6 : Present the result


(Each step need not be completed in its entirely before moving to
the next step)

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Simulation Procedure
Define objective, scope, and requirements

Collect and analyze system data

Build model

Validate model

Conduct experiment

Present result
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Defining The Objective


The objective of a simulation defines the purpose
or reason for conducting the simulation study.
It should be realistic and achievable, given the
time and resource constraints of the study

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Defining The Objective


Simulation objectives can be grouped into the
following general categories :

Performance analysis

What is the all-around performance of

the system in terms of resource utilization, flow time, output


rate, and so on?

When pushed to the maximum, what


is the processing or production capacity of the system and
where are the bottlenecks?

Capacity/constraint analysis

Configuration comparison

How well does one system

configuration meet performance objectives compared to


another?

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Defining The Objective


Optimization What setting for particular decision
variables best achieve desired performance goals ?

Sensitivity analysis - Which decision variables are


the most influential on performance measures, and
how influential are they?

Visualization How can system dynamics be most


effectively visualized?

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Defining The Objective


Examples of Specifics Objectives

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Design Decisions

What are the optimum number and size of waiting areas, storage
areas, queues, and buffers?

What is the optimum unit load or batch size for processing?

Where are the bottlenecks in the system, and how can they be
eliminated?

Operational Decisions

What is the best schedule for preventive maintenance?

What is the best priority rule for selecting the jobs and tasks?

How many personnel should be scheduled for a particular shift?

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Test Yourself
For each of the following systems, define one possible objective:

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A manufacturing cell

A fast-food restaurant

An emergency room of a hospital

A tire distribution center

A public bus transportation system

A post office

A rental car agency at a major airport

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Defining The Objective


It is always best if objectives can be clearly,
completely, and precisely stated.
To be effective, an objective should be one that
Has high potential impact

Is achievable
Is specific
Is quantifiable
Is measurable

Identifies any relevant constraints

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Defining the Scope of Work


The scope of work is important for guiding the study
as well as providing a specification of the work to be
done upon which all can agree

An important part of the scope is a specification of


the models that will be built. When evaluating
improvements to an existing system, it is often
desirable to model the current system first. This is
called an as-is model.
As-is model results are statistically compared with
outputs of the real-world system to validate the
simulation model
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Defining the Scope of Work


As-is model can be used as a benchmark or baseline
to compare the result of to-be models.
To ensure that the budget and schedule are realistic,
a detailed specification should be drafted to include:
Model scope
Level of detail
Data-gathering responsibilities
Experimentation

Form of results

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Defining the Scope of Work


Determining Model Scope
Model scope refers to what system elements should be
represent in the model

Determining the scope of a model should be based on


how much impact a particular activity has on achieving the
objectives of the simulation
Decision regarding model scope relates to the model
boundaries
A common tendency for beginners is to model the entire
system, even when the problem area and all relevant
variables are actually isolated within a smaller subsystem

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Defining the Scope of Work


In addition to limiting the model boundaries, other
system elements may be excluded from a model due to
their relevance.
The determination of what elements can be eliminated
should be based on their relevance to the objectives of
the study

Activity
A

Activity B

Activity C

Activity
D

Activity E

Scope of model

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Defining the Scope of Work


Deciding on Level of Detail
The level of detail determines the depth of a model.
Real world system can be modeled as a single black
box or white box model
Too much detail makes it difficult and time-consuming to
develop and debug the model. Too little detail may make
the model unrealistic by oversimplifying the process.

Level of detail is determined largely by the degree of


accuracy required in the result

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Defining the Scope of Work


One-to-one
correspondence

Level of detail

Minimum
required

Model development time


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Defining the Scope of Work


Assigning DataGathering Responsibilities
In any simulation project, data gathering is almost always
the most difficult and time-consuming task.

Identifying data requirements and who will be responsible


for gathering the data is essential if this activity is to
succeed
If the modeler is responsible for gathering data, it is
important to have the full cooperation of those who
possess the data, including equipment vendors, engineers,
technicians, direct labor personnel, and supervisors.

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Defining the Scope of Work


Planning the Experimentation
The basic premise is that you are not ready to improve a
system until you understand how the current system
operates.
Once a model of the current system is built, it is easier to
visualize what changes need to be made for the modified
system. Both system may even be modeled together in the
same simulation and made to run side by side
The number and nature of the scenarios or alternative
configurations is influenced by the time constraints of the
study

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Defining the Scope of Work


Determining the Form of Result
The form of results to be presented can significantly affect
the time and effort involved in the simulation study

The key to determining the kind and quantity of information


to present to the decision maker or stakeholder is to ask
what decision is being made with the simulation and what
the background is of the person(s) who will be making the
decision.
Simulation animation can effectively compare alternative
scenarios.

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Defining Project Requirements


Resource, budget, and time requirements can be
determined for the project with the scope of work
defined
The primary task at this point is to develop a budget
and schedule for the project.
The time to perform a simulation project will vary
depending on the size and difficulty of the project

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Defining Project Requirements

A simulation schedule should be based on realistic


projections of the time requirements, keeping in mind that:
data gathering and analysis can take over 50 percent of the
overall project time
model building usually takes the least amount of time (10 to 20
percent)
once a base model is built, several additional weeks may be
needed to conduct all of the desired experiments, especially if the
purpose of the project is to make system comparisons
At least several days must be allowed to clean up the model and
develop the final presentation
Simulation project follow the 9010 rule, where the first 90 percent
takes 10 percent of the time, and the last 10 percent takes the
other 90 percent

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Reasons Why Simulation Projects Fail

Unclear objectives

Unskilled modelers

Unavailable data

Unmanaged expectations

Unsupportive management

Underestimated requirements

Uninvolved process owner(s)

The best way to ensure success is to make sure that everyone


involved is educated in the process and understands the benefits and
limitations of simulation
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Simulation Procedure
Discussed in a separate chapter
Define objective, scope, and requirements

Collect and analyze system data

Build model

Validate model

Conduct experiment

Present result
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Simulation Procedure
Define objective, scope, and requirements

Collect and analyze system data

Build model

Validate model

Conduct experiment

Present result
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Simulation Studies

Key modelling process:

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A conceptual model; a description of the model that


is to be developed
A computer model; the simulation model
implemented on a computer
Solutions and/or understanding; derived from the
result of the experimentation
An improvement in the real world; obtained from
implementing the solutions and/or understanding
gained

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Simulation Studies Build Model

Real world
(problem)

Solutions/
understanding

Conceptual
model

Computer
model

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Simulation Studies Build Model

Conceptual modeling
Develop an understanding of the problem

situation
Determine the modeling objectives
Design the conceptual model: inputs, outputs,

and model content


Collect and analyze the data required to

develop the model

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Simulation Studies Build Model

Model coding
In model coding the conceptual model is

converted in to a computer model


Coding is defined in its most general sense and

does not strictly mean computer programming


The assumption here is that the simulation is

built and performed on a computer

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Simulation Studies Build Model

Experimentation
Experiments are performed with the simulation

model in order to obtain a better


understanding of the real world and/or to find
solutions to real world problems
It is a process of whatif analysis, that is,
making changes to the models inputs, running
the model, inspecting the result, learning from
the results, making changes to the inputs and so
on

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Conceptual Modeling
The conceptual model is a non-software specific
description of the simulation model that is to be
developed, describing the objectives, inputs,
outputs, content, assumptions and simplifications of
the model

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Conceptual Modeling

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Objectives: the components that are represented in


the model and their interconnections
Assumptions made either when there are
uncertainties or beliefs about the real world being
modeled
Simplifications incorporated in the model to enable
more rapid model development and use (ways of
reducing the complexity of the model)

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Conceptual Modeling
The content of the model should be described in terms of
two dimensions (Robinson, 1994):

The scope of the model: the model boundary or


the breadth of the real system that is to be
included in the model
The level of detail: the detail to be included for
each component in the models scope

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Conceptual Modeling
Requirements of the conceptual model:

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1.

Validity: a perception, on behalf of the modeler, that the


conceptual model will lead to a computer model that is
sufficiently accurate for the purpose at hand

2.

Credibility: a perception, on behalf of the clients, that the


conceptual model will lead to a computer model that is
sufficiently accurate for the purpose at hand

3.

Utility: a perception, on behalf of the modeler and the


clients, that the conceptual model will lead to a computer
model that is useful as an aid to decision-making within the
specified context

4.

Feasibility: a perception, on behalf of the modeler and


clients, that the conceptual model can be modeled

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Representing the Conceptual Modeling

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Component list
Process flow diagram
Logic flow diagram
Activity cycle diagram
Petri nets
Event graphs
Condition specification
The Unified Modelling Language (UML)
Rich picture (Soft System Methodology)

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Component List

A list of the components in the model with some


description of the detail included for each

It does not provide a visual representation of the


conceptual model and it is difficult to capture
complex logic and the process flow

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Component List

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Example: component list for Single Server Queue

Component

Detail

Customers

Time between arrivals (distribution)

Queue

Capacity

Service desk

Service time (distribution)

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Process Flow Diagram

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The conceptual model is represented as a process


flow or process map, showing each component of
the system in a sequence and including some
description of the model detail
A process might be shown as a box and a queue as
a circle
It is still difficult to capture more complex logic

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Process Flow Diagram

Example: Process Flow Diagram for Single Server Queue

Customers
(interarrival time)
Queue
(capacity)

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Service
(service time distribution)

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Logic Flow Diagram

It uses standard flow diagram symbols to represent


the logic of the model rather than the process flow

The process flow is not always obvious, however,


these diagrams can quickly become large, complex
and cumbersome for models of any reasonable
scale

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Logic Flow Diagram

Example: Logic Flow


Diagram for Single
Server Queue

Customer Arrives

Space in queue?

No

Queue for service

Server available?

No

Customer served

Customer leaves

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Activity Cycle Diagram

ACD are used as a specific means for representing


discrete-event simulation models (Hill, 1971)

Circles represent dead states, where an item waits


for something to happen

Rectangles represent active states, where an item is


acted upon

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Activity Cycle Diagram

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ACD provide a convenient means for identifying the


events in a simulation and so their main use has
been to act as a basis for programming simulation
models
ACD are probably less useful if a simulation
package is to be employed

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Activity Cycle Diagram


The basic conventions for drawing an ACD are as
follows:
1. Each entity and resource has an activity cycle.
2. Each cycle consists of activities and queues.
3. Activities and queues alternate in a cycle.
4. Activities are depicted by rectangles and
queues by circles.
5. A cycle is closed.

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Activity Cycle Diagram

Example: ACD for Single Server Queue

Queue

Customer arrival

Service

Outside

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Activity Cycle Diagram

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Activity Cycle Diagram

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Activity Cycle Diagram

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Activity Cycle Diagram

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Activity Cycle Diagram

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Activity Cycle Diagram

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Activity Cycle Diagram

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Activity Cycle Diagram

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Relationships between ACD, the activity


orientation and process orientation

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Building Arena from ACD

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Building Arena from ACD

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Building Arena from ACD

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Building Arena from ACD

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Building Arena from ACD

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Building Arena from ACD

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Building Arena from ACD

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Arena Simulation and Output Reports

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Arena Simulation and Output Reports

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Arena Simulation and Output Reports

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Building Arena from ACD

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Building Arena from ACD

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Building Arena from ACD

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Building Arena from ACD

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Building Arena from ACD

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Building Arena from ACD

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Building Arena from ACD

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Building Arena from ACD

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