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LANGAT DAM SAFETY STUDY: OVERTOPPING PREVENTION

LEE CHONG YOU

A project report submitted in partial fulfilment of the


requirements for the award of the degree of
Bachelor (Hons.) of Civil Engineering

Faculty of Engineering and Science


Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman

April 2013

DECLARATION

I hereby declare that this project report is based on my original work except for
citations and quotations which have been duly acknowledged. I also declare that it
has not been previously and concurrently submitted for any other degree or award at
UTAR or other institutions.

Signature :

_________________________

Name

____LEE CHONG YOU____

ID No.

_______0908105___________

Date

____ 5 April 2013

______

APPROVAL FOR SUBMISSION

I certify that this project report entitled LANGAT DAM SAFETY STUDY:
OVERTOPPING PREVENTION was prepared by LEE CHONG YOU has met
the required standard for submission in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the
award of Bachelor of Engineering (Hons.) Civil Engineering at Universiti Tunku
Abdul Rahman.

Approved by,

Signature : _________________________
Supervisor : Ir. Pan Wang Fook
Date

: _________________________

The copyright of this report belongs to the author under the terms of the
copyright Act 1987 as qualified by Intellectual Property Policy of University Tunku
Abdul Rahman. Due acknowledgement shall always be made of the use of any
material contained in, or derived from, this report.

2013, Lee Chong You. All right reserved.

Specially dedicated to
my beloved grandmother, mother and father

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I would like to thank everyone who had contributed to the successful completion of
this project. I would like to express my gratitude to my lectures, research supervisor
and advisor of Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman for their invaluable advice, guidance
and enormous patience throughout the development of the research.
In addition, I would also like to express my gratitude to my loving parent for
their love and greatest support to me during my toughest time. Besides, I would like
to express my thousand thanks to my friends who had helped and given me
encouragement.

LANGAT DAM SAFETY STUDY: OVERTOPPING PREVENTION

ABSTRACT

A hydrological dam safety assessment was carried out for Langat dam (CA= 41 km 2)
by evaluating the performance of the bellmouth spillway in light of an extreme
meteorological event of the PMP/PMF magnitude. It is important that the flood rise
does not exceed or overtop the embankment dam crest level.
Langat dam (CA= 41 km2) is a small catchment regulating water supply
embankment dam that supply raw waters to Langat Mile 10 Water Treatment Plant
(WTP) downstream on the main stem of Sg. Langat. It is one of part of a parallel
reservoir operation in Sg. Semenyih basin.
This study adopts inland type of PMPs as derived previously by SMHB
(2012). A catchment routing procedure is used to translate the PMPs to PMFs for 1to 120-hour duration.

The results of the PMPs/PMFs are comparable to the

Creager type of catchment area-PMP relationship of various dams in Malaysia.


A conventional reservoir routing procedure by modified Puls technique is then
carried out for all PMP/PMF durations, i.e. 1- to 120-hour. In general, the flood rises
for all durations are marginally lower than the ECL, +223.8 m msl. It is therefore
concluded that Langat dam (CA= 41 km2) with its ample surcharge capacity is safe
from the onslaught of a PMP/PMF event. However, the provision of wave run-up,
normally an additional 1 m or so free board is no longer available. Therefore it is
recommended that a parapet wall of 1.0 m in height can be installed along the dam
crest on the water edge could be of help to mitigate simultaneous PMP/PMF event
with higher wave run-up.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

DECLARATION

APPROVAL FOR SUBMISSION

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

ABSTRACT

TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF TABLES

13

LIST OF FIGURES

15

LIST OF SYMBOLS / ABBREVIATIONS

18

INTRODUCTION

20

1 Background

20

2 Description of the Project

22

3 Objectives

27

LITERATURE REVIEW

28

1 Problem Statement

28

2 Tasks and Assignments

32

METHODOLOGY

33

1 Methodology of Hydrological Dam Safety Assessment

33

2 Pmp Review and Study

36

2.1 Rationale of PMP

37

3.2.1.1 Hydrometeorological Approach......................40


3.2.1.2 Hershfield Technique......................................47
Data Requirement for Hershfield Type PMP
2.2 Adopted PMP Convention by SMHB/B&P

50
54

8
2.3 Areal Reduction Factor (ARF)
3 Probable Maximum Flood
3.1 Introduction

77
78
78

3.2 Hp 11 Hydrological Procedure (Taylor And Toh, 1976)81


3.3 Rorb Win Model Description

83

3.4 Comparison of PMFs

89

4 Reservoir Routing
4.1 Basic of Reservoir Routing Equation

91
93

4.2 Modified Puls Or Storage Indication Routing Method 94


4.3 Spillway Configuration

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS


1 PMP/PMF Catchment Routing
2 Reservoir Routing

CONCLUSION
1 Conclusion

96

98
98
102

111
111

REFERENCES

112

APPENDICES

116

The estimated PMPs for both dams were somewhat lower than the inland
(and coastal) PMP series of SMHB/B&P. This was perhaps due to the
larger catchment in the storm depth-catchment area relationship. The
smaller the catchment area would have higher exposure to the spatial
distribution of the storm precipitation. This is evidenced in the depth-areaduration curve shown in Figure 2 (DAD curve for envelopment of east
coastal storm)

126

B4 Putrajaya: Perang Besar Reservoir, Angkasa-GHD, 1998

127

B9 Short Duration Rainfalls in Selangor, Desa and Rakhecha 2002

136

9
The PMP was estimated using statistical approach,
presummedly
methodology.

Hershfields
Table

below

shows

statistically
the

PMPs

calculated up to 24 hour and the percentage


distribution to the shorter durations. ...................143
Rainfall duration....................................................143
Relationship of PMP..............................................143
PMP (%).................................................................143
(mm)........................................................................143
3................................................................................143
67%..........................................................................143
322............................................................................143
6................................................................................143
83%..........................................................................143
399............................................................................143
12..............................................................................143
94%..........................................................................143
452............................................................................143
1-day........................................................................143
100%........................................................................143
481............................................................................143
Excerpted from JPZ (1998)...................................143

CHAPTER

INTRODUCTION

20

1 Background

20

2 Description of the Project

22

3 Objectives

27

LITERATURE REVIEW
1 Problem Statement

28
28

10
2 Tasks and Assignments

METHODOLOGY

32

33

1 Methodology of Hydrological Dam Safety Assessment

33

2 Pmp Review and Study

36

2.1 Rationale of PMP

37

3.2.1.1 Hydrometeorological Approach......................40


3.2.1.2 Hershfield Technique......................................47
Data Requirement for Hershfield Type PMP

50

2.2 Adopted PMP Convention by SMHB/B&P

54

2.3 Areal Reduction Factor (ARF)

77

3 Probable Maximum Flood


3.1 Introduction

78
78

3.2 Hp 11 Hydrological Procedure (Taylor And Toh, 1976)81


3.3 Rorb Win Model Description

83

3.4 Comparison of PMFs

89

4 Reservoir Routing
4.1 Basic of Reservoir Routing Equation

91
93

4.2 Modified Puls Or Storage Indication Routing Method 94


4.3 Spillway Configuration

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS


1 PMP/PMF Catchment Routing
2 Reservoir Routing

CONCLUSION
1 Conclusion

96

98
98
102

111
111

REFERENCES

112

APPENDICES

116

11
The estimated PMPs for both dams were somewhat lower than the inland
(and coastal) PMP series of SMHB/B&P. This was perhaps due to the
larger catchment in the storm depth-catchment area relationship. The
smaller the catchment area would have higher exposure to the spatial
distribution of the storm precipitation. This is evidenced in the depth-areaduration curve shown in Figure 2 (DAD curve for envelopment of east
coastal storm)

126

B4 Putrajaya: Perang Besar Reservoir, Angkasa-GHD, 1998

127

B9 Short Duration Rainfalls in Selangor, Desa and Rakhecha 2002

136

The PMP was estimated using statistical approach,


presummedly
methodology.

Hershfields
Table

below

shows

statistically
the

PMPs

calculated up to 24 hour and the percentage


distribution to the shorter durations. ...................143
Rainfall duration....................................................143
Relationship of PMP..............................................143
PMP (%).................................................................143
(mm)........................................................................143
3................................................................................143
67%..........................................................................143
322............................................................................143
6................................................................................143
83%..........................................................................143
399............................................................................143
12..............................................................................143
94%..........................................................................143
452............................................................................143
1-day........................................................................143
100%........................................................................143
481............................................................................143
Excerpted from JPZ (1998)...................................143

12

13

LIST OF TABLES

TABLE

TITLE

PAGE

Table 2.1: Partial List of Dam Failure and Main


Reasons ......................................................................29
Table 3.2: 5-Day Depth Area Curve/Table for 1986
Storm

in

East

Coast

Peninsular

Malaysia

November 1986..........................................................45
Table 3.3: 5-Day Depth Area Curve/Table for 1986
Storm

in

East

Coast

Peninsular

Malaysia

November 1986..........................................................45
Table 3.4: Coastal and Inland PMP (Short- and
Long-Duration) adopted by SMHB.........................55
Table 3.5: Recorded Rainfall (NAHRIM 2008).....58
Table 3.6: Comparison of PMP of Coastal and
Inland PMP Values...................................................61
Table 3.7: Coastal and Inland PMPs (LongDuration) adopted by SMHB...................................63
Table 3.8: World Highest Precipitation..................64
Table 3.9: Temporal Storm Pattern: Fraction .....71
Table 3.10: Temporal Storm Pattern: Inland PMPs
for various Durations ..............................................72
Table 3.11: Temporal Storm Pattern: Fraction.....73
Table 3.12: Creager Type Curve: Catchment Area
Versus Peak PMPs/PMFs For Various Dams in
Malaysia.....................................................................90
Table 4.13: Creager Type Curve: Catchment Area
Versus Peak PMPs/PMFs For Various Dams in
Malaysia...................................................................101

14
Table

4.14: Results

of PMP/PMF

Reservoir

Routing: 1- to 120-hour Duration.........................102

15

LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE

TITLE

PAGE

Figure 1.1: Sungai Langat Basin with Semenyih and


Langat Dams 1/5.......................................................23
Figure 1.2: Sungai Langat Basin with Semenyih and
Langat Dams 2/5.......................................................23
Figure 1.3: Sungai Langat Basin with Semenyih and
Langat Dams 3/5 (source: www.syabas.com.my)...24
Figure 1.4: Dams :

Sungai Langat Basin with

Semenyih and Langat Dams 4/5..............................24


Figure 1.5: Sungai Langat Basin with Semenyih and
Langat Dams 5/5.......................................................25
Figure 1.6: Morning Glory or Bell mouth Spillway
of Langat dam...........................................................26
Figure 2.7: PMP/PMF Routing and Reservoir
Routing Flow Diagram in Dam Safety Assessment
Undertaking (source: www.noaa.gov).....................32
Figure 3.8: 1-Day Depth Duration Area DAD Curve
for Storms in East Coast Peninsular Malaysia after
maximization and transposition..............................43
Figure 3.9: 5-Day Depth Area Curve for 1986
Storm

in

East

Coast

Peninsular

Malaysia

(November 1986 27th November to 1st December


1986, near Kuala Terengganu )...............................44
Figure 3.10: 5-Day Depth Area Curve for 1986
Storm in East Coast Peninsular Malaysia..............45
Figure 3.11: Selangor PMP: 1-day (Desa, Noriah,
and Rakhecha, 2001).................................................52

16
Figure 3.12: Johor PMP: 1-day (Desa And
Rakhecha, 2007)........................................................53
Figure 3.13: World Highest Precipitation: Depth Vs
Duration.....................................................................65
Figure 3.14: Peninsular Malaysia PMP: 1-day (Al
Mamun and Hashim, 2004; originally published in
NWRS (2000))............................................................67
Figure 3.15: Temporal Storm Pattern (west coast 3
hours): HP No: 1 (1982)............................................74
Figure 3.16: Temporal Storm Pattern (west coast 6
hours): HP No: 1 (1982)............................................74
Figure 3.17: Temporal Storm Pattern (west coast 12
hours): HP No: 1 (1982)............................................75
Figure 3.18: Temporal Storm Pattern (west coast 24
hours): HP No: 1 (1982)............................................75
Figure 3.19: Temporal Storm Pattern (west coast 72
hours): HP No: 1 (1982)............................................76
Figure 3.20: Temporal Storm Pattern: Bell Shape
Curve 3-, 12-, and 24- Hour.....................................76
Figure 3.21 Areal Reduction Factor: ARF (NWS,
USA)...........................................................................77
Figure 3.22: Representation of sub catchment in
RORB model..............................................................84
Figure

3.23:

Regionalized

k-catchment

area

relationship................................................................87
Figure 3.24: PMF-Catchment Area Creager Curve:
Malaysia Dam Inflows..............................................89
Figure 3.25: Discharge Hydrograph Routing Effects
.....................................................................................92
Figure 3.26: Reservoir Storage Routing Indicator 96
Figure 4.27: PMP/PMF Catchment Routing: 1- to
120-hour.....................................................................99
Figure 4.28: Creager Type Catchment Area-PMF
Relationship.............................................................100

17
Figure 4.29: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing:

hour duration..........................................................103
Figure 4.30: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing:

hour duration..........................................................104
Figure 4.31: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing:

hour duration..........................................................105
Figure 4.32: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: 12
hour duration..........................................................106
Figure 4.33: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: 24
hour duration..........................................................107
Figure 4.34: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: 48
hour duration..........................................................108
Figure 4.35: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: 72
hour duration..........................................................109
Figure 4.36: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: 120
hour duration..........................................................110

18

LIST OF SYMBOLS / ABBREVIATIONS

Xt

Rainfall for return period t, mm

Sn

Standard deviation of a maximum annual series

Xm

PMP values for any duration, mm

Km

Frequency factor attributed to Hershfield, normally 15 is adopted

catchment area, km2

Inflow, m3/s

Outflow/ discharge, m3/s

Storage, m3

S1

Storage in the reservoir at time step number t, m3

S2

storage in the reservoir at time step number t + 1, m3

Fitted parameter

RORB calibrated parameter, ND

BCM

Billion Cubic Meter

CA

Catchment area, km2

DAD

Depth Area Duration

ECL

Embankment Crest Level, m

FSL

Full Service Level, m

HTC

Humid Tropic Centre

ICUH

International Conference of Urban Hydrology

IDF

inflow design flood

JPS

Jabatan Pengairan dan Saliran

MMS

Modular Modelling System

MSMA

Manual Saliran Mesra Alam

MCM

Million Cubic Meter

NWRS

National Water Resources Strategy

19
NWS

National Weather Service

ODEs

Ordinary Differentia Equations

PMF

Probable maximum flood

SDF

Spillway design flood

SDW

Serangoon Sewage Disposal Work

ABM/BOM

Australia Bureau of Meteorology

ACE

area capacity elevation

ARF

Areal Reduction Factor

B&P

Binnie and Partners

20

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

Background

A dam is defined as an artificial barrier together with appurtenant works constructed


for the purpose of holding water or any other liquid material. Dam is normally
located in the upper part/portion of a watershed that draining waters to the outlet of
interest. It blocks almost the entire width of the river cross section by placing a
monolithic and heavy man-made structure at this site. They can be built from many
different materials, including earth, rock, tailings from mining or milling, concrete,
masonry, steel, timber, miscellaneous materials (such as plastic or rubber) and any
combination of these materials.
In Malaysia, the most common type of dam are embankment earth fill dam,
their construction is principally from required excavation using the available
materials from the construction. Earth fill dams typically have a water-impermeable
clay core, and a water cut-off wall from their base to bedrock to prevent underground
seepage. During construction, the stream or river will be diverted either through the
dam-site by means of a conduit, or around it by means of a tunnel. Normally a earth
fill dam will built with some supplementary structures as spillways for discharging
water from behind the dam. If sufficient spillway capacity is not provided, an earth
fill dam may be damaged or even destroyed by the erosive water flowing over its
crest. Unless special precautions are taken, such dams are also subject to serious
damage or even failure, due to water seepage.

21
A dam/reservoir can serves many beneficial purposes such as providing water
for Irrigation, Hydro-power, Water-supply, Flood Control, Navigation, Fishing and
Recreation. Dams may be built to meet the one of the above purposes or they may be
constructed fulfilling more than one. For dam that serves more than one purpose is
called Multipurpose Dam. Even through dams and reservoirs serve a number of
different functions, but most of the dams in Malaysia are use for water supply
purpose.
For a water supply purpose dam, in normal day, water will stored in reservoir
until the time when water supply is needed, the reservoir operator will releases
waters through series of outlets/valves to the downstream for augmenting low flow
regime in the river. The released waters are then diverted for beneficial uses further
downstream. The reservoir schemes are operated based on three modes of operation,
they are namely, (1) direct supply, (2) regulating reservoir, and (3) pump storage
scheme.
Another major use of dams is power generation as hydroelectric. Hydropower
development contributes roughly 10% of the global energy sector. It is dubbed
mostly as renewable and yet cleans and low carbon emission technology with non
consumptive usage of precious water resources.
There are three (3) types of reservoir operations for power generation,
namely, (1) run-of-river, (2) reservoir storage, and (3) peaking power mode of
operation. Virtually no or minimum storage created by the low level/elevation intake
structure is required for run-of-river type of power production. The energy is only
attributed to the magnitude of runoff that passing through the turbine chamber at the
intake. A low weir or head intake is sufficed for this type of simple configuration.
To increase the head in the power equation, the waters could be diverted further
downstream to the power or turbine house. This type of arrangement is suitable for
steep topography and mountainous terrain.
Similar to water supply with option of reservoir storage facility, the flow
fluctuation is moderated by the storage reservoir at the upper catchment of a
watershed. Not only excess waters during high flow can be reserved for latter days

22
power generation but it is also providing adequate hydraulic head for the same
purpose.

Description of the Project

The Sungai Langat drains a catchment of some 1,240 km 2 at the stream flow gauging
station at Dengkil (downstream of its confluence with the Sungai Semenyih) and
around 1,815 km2 at the mouth of the estuary.
The Sg. Langat Basin forms the southern boundary of the State of Selangor
and partially intrudes into the neighbouring State of Negeri Sembilan. The upper
catchment comprises generally rugged mountain terrain with multiple land use
classification. The lower catchment of the Sungai Langat basin is low lying, swampy
land with some disused mining land.
The Langat dam was one of the first major water supply reservoir schemes in
the state of Selangor and subsequently Kuala Lumpur when the capital was upgraded
to federal territory status. The dam was commissioned in 1979 and in the vicinity on
another tributary of Sungai Langat, the Semenyih dam in 1984 located in the upper
reaches of the catchments, they serve as regulating reservoirs to augment flows at the
intakes of the downstream treatment works during periods of low flow.

Their

primary purpose is therefore water supply. An augmentation scheme for the Sg.
Semenyih was recently undertaken to provide an additional raw water supply (70
Mld) at the existing Semenyih WTP from a series of nearby abandoned mining
ponds. The scheme is mainly for emergency use, but can also augment low flows at
the Semenyih WTP.
To improve operating flexibility of the two major WTPs in the basin, that is
Langat Mile 10 and Semenyih WTPs, an interconnected raw water pumping transfer
from the Sg. Semenyih to the Sungai Lui , an upstream tributary of the Sungai
Langat, was also constructed. Figures 1.3 to 1.7 shows the location, birdeye view
and schematic of the dam body.

23

Figure 1.1: Sungai Langat Basin with Semenyih and Langat Dams 1/5
Location Map [Source: Lembaga Urusan Air Sungai Selangor (LUAS)]

Figure 1.2: Sungai Langat Basin with Semenyih and Langat Dams 2/5
Contour map

24

Figure 1.3: Sungai Langat Basin with Semenyih and Langat Dams 3/5 (source:
www.syabas.com.my)

Figure 1.4: Dams : Sungai Langat Basin with Semenyih and Langat Dams 4/5
Schematic diagram of Langat Dam (Source: www.syabas.com.my )

25

Figure 1.5: Sungai Langat Basin with Semenyih and Langat Dams 5/5
Google earth map

Langat dam/reservoir (CA= 41 km2) is located in the upper catchment of the


Sg. Langat basin at river mile 24. The reservoir drains a catchment area of about 41
km2 on the eastern slopes of the central mountain range. The reliable yield based on
conjunctive operation of the reservoir and intake downstream at Mile 10 (with a
combined catchment area of 295 km2) was estimated in the design report (Binnie dan
Rakan; 1976) to be 387 Mld. This allowed for a compensation release at the Mile 10
intake of 90 Mld.
The gross reservoir storage is 35.4 million m3, of which 1.3 million m3 is
allocated to dead storage. The dam is about 61 m high with its full supply level (FSL)
at +221.0 m msl. The surcharge volume above +221.0 m msl is ample with the dam
embankment crest level (ECL) at +223.8 m msl.

26
The dam is equipped with outflow structures, such as water outflow pipe by
drawing water at different elevation of the intake tower. The sluicing valve is
operated by Larnar butterfly valve. The outlet serves to releases water from the
reservoir in time of need to augment low flow at the Mile 10 water supply intake.
The spillway is located on the left bank of the dam abutment with a fairly large
diameter bell mouth or morning glory spillway, i.e. 27.4 m in diameter. During an
extreme meteorological event, the torrential flow of PMP/PMF magnitude will be
evacuated via the bell mouth spillway so that the danger of dam overtopping is
avoided at all cost. PMP/PMF convention is therefore used to design the spillway
capacity.
The morning glory or bell mouth spillway of Langat dam is shown in Figure
1.8.

Figure 1.6: Morning Glory or Bell mouth Spillway of Langat dam


( Source: self taken pictures )

27
3

Objectives

The objectives of this study are:


a) Assessment of the hydrological safety of existing Langat reservoir/dam in the
light of a meteorological extremity, such as occurrence of a PMP/PMF event.
b) Recommendation of appropriate and cost effective remedial and mitigation
measures, if any, in case of inadequacy in the hydrological infrastructure
assessment carried as per objective (a).
It is utmost important to ensure the dam/reservoir structure, especially earthfill
and rockfill type could withstand the onslaught of torrential storm which in a way
results in exceptionally high inflows into the reservoir water body.

28

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

Problem Statement

Dam safety is a vital important issue and must be kept in focus at all times as any
failure of dam can lead to high hazard potential. Dam safety must be given high
priority during the process while planning, design, construction, operation and even
during maintenance. Safety assessment of the dam/reservoir structures are one of
post construction operation and maintenance (O&M) undertaking that are being
carried out regularly to ensure that the reservoir structure are always functioning
well. Although dams are constructed according to careful survey, design, and
construction stages, there are still many cases of serious dam accidents have occurred
in the world. Therefore safety assessments during the post construction operation and
maintenance are very important.
Dam safety assessments that carried out according to the O&M protocol are
focus on few issues including natural catastrophes such as earthquake event, heavy
precipitation events that lead to eventual high floods, evidences of animal burrowing
of the dam/reservoir structure, in the case of earth and rock fill dam structures, etc.
An inspection program seeks to identify the current status of the
dam/reservoir structures in light of calamity that might impair the structural integrity
of the structure itself. An inspection checklist gives the full safe/health status to the
dam/reservoir scheme for continuous operation in many years to come until the next

29
due inspection, which in the Malaysias Dam Inspection Guideline, calls for 5-year
interval for any major dam structures.
Dam failures can happened due to varies factors such as overtopping which
caused by water spilling over the top of a dam, structural failure of materials used in
dam construction, cracking caused by movements like the natural settling of a dam,
internal erosion and also inadequate maintenance after built. The results of the dam
failure could be far reaching and jeopardizing the structural integrity of the
dam/reservoir.
Table 2.1 shows some dam failure cases and the main reasons of failure.
Table 2.1: Partial List of Dam Failure and Main Reasons

Source : Centre for the Assessment of Natural Hazards and Proactive Planning
Overtopping is the most common reason causing dam failure among the
others and often led to serious hazard. Overtopping can occur when the water level in
the reservoir rises rapidly and most of the time without prior and/or even with a short
time warning. The examples are flash floods, heavy storm/rainfall, a landslide occurs
in the upper catchment of the dam/reservoir that send torrential water wave toward
the dam embankment at the downstream. Overtopping can also happen when the

30
spillway is too small or becomes blocked. If the amount of water coming into the
reservoir is greater than the amount that the spillway was designed for, or if the
spillway becomes blocked, the floodwater might start to overtop the dam crest.
Failure of dam by overtopping show up that the importance to have an
accurate assessment of their safety feature such as emergency action can be planned
and implemented ahead of probable catastrophic events. One of these measures is the
hydrological inspection and evaluation that plays a role in the overall inspection
program to estimate the overtopping probability of the dam during PMP(probable
precipitation) scenario. Amongst the dam structural appurtenances, spillway capacity
is one of the most significant factors that affect the ability of a dam to pass the
maximum flood. The performance of a spillway on the onset is crucial to the
dam/reservoir structure itself. Overtopping over the dam crest occurs if the reservoir
cannot adequately and sufficiently attenuate the inflows into the reservoir in case of
an extreme PMP/PMF event. Therefore, assessment and appraisal are carried out on
the existing spillway capacity in light of a PMP/PMF event during the hydrological
inspection.
Overtopping criteria is rather important if the dam is of embankment fill type,
such as conventional earthfill and rockfill dams (not so extent, if the dam structure is
concrete buttress dam). Potential risk of damages, mainly erosion of the downstream
face of the dam is higher than ever if the torrential inflows are allowed to over spill
the crest. The high velocity flow, in the magnitude from 15 to 30 m/s could induce
cavitation (implosive bubble formation) on the downstream surface of the
embankment dam. This negative pressure is created as a result of high velocity,
according to Bernoulli equation, induces suction forces that might rip apart or erode
the surface of the dam. With time, the dam structure could be rendered unsafe and
running into the risk of collapse. A vivid tunnel spillway accident during high flows
in Glenn Canyon dam in 1986 has demonstrated the vulnerability of the spillway
against the onslaught of cavitation as the flood waters pass through it at an
exceptionally high velocity.

31
The design parameter, PMPs used in the earlier design of dam/reservoir
structures are subjects of review during each inspection interval. Unfortunately,
during the earlier design of the dam/reservoir structure, the hydrological information
at the dam/reservoir sites or in the vicinity might not be adequate, thus prevented a
thorough and comprehensive assessment at the time of detail design stage. This is
especially true for the dam/reservoir structures that were been designed and built in
the earlier 1950s where the hydrometric collection and sampling program are
generally lacking and inadequate at the earlier years of Independence. As such it is a
pressing need for a comprehensive assessment of the hydrological safety criteria of
the dam/reservoir structures in the light of climatological/meteorological extremities.
An illustrative example of the inadequacy of the hydrological assessment is
the PMPs that are adopted in the dam/reservoir design. The PMPs are mostly
inconsistent as they are subjects to the knowledge and experiences accumulated by
individual designer, i.e. consulting engineers/specialists experiences. Even for the
same dam, most if not all of the time, the PMPs are reported and derived differently
by different engineering specialists.
In summary, the hydrological assessment of the dam safety is an essential
part of the dam inspection program, in light of a new and updated set of PMP using
concurrent and latest observed hydrological information.

It is therefore utmost

important to carry out this special task of the hydrological investigation.

32
2

Tasks and Assignments

Tasks to fulfill the objectives of this Study are as follows:

Derivation of PMPs by reviewing various studies and works that were carried
out earlier in Malaysia, notably, major flood mitigation studies carried out in
Kelantan (SSP/SMHB, 1997), Interstate Raw Water Transfer from Pahang to
Selangor (NK/SMHB, 2000), SMHB/RB/JPZ (NWRS, 2000), NAHRIM
(2008) and other scholastic researches/reports by various institutions of
higher learning in Malaysia.

PMP to PMF routing using one of the acceptable PMP/PMF rainfall runoff
routing techniques, i.e. a modified version of synthetic unit hydrograph
approach of HP 11 (Taylor and Toh, 1976), and

Conventional reservoir (modified Puls) routing procedure to estimate the


flood rise during a PMP/PMF event. The reservoir helps to moderate the
humongous inflows by attenuating the peak discharge of an inflow
hydrograph.

Figure 2.1 shows the step-by-step approach in assessing hydrological aspect of


dam safety program.

Figure 2.7: PMP/PMF Routing and Reservoir Routing Flow Diagram in Dam Safety
Assessment Undertaking (source: www.noaa.gov)

33

CHAPTER 3

METHODOLOGY

Methodology of Hydrological Dam Safety Assessment

For this project report, the methodology that used for assessing the hydrological dam
safety primarily focuses on the review of the spillway capacity and dam overtopping
likelihood. The assessment basically involved few steps which are:
1. Derivation of PMPs at the project/study site,
2. Translation of PMPs to PMFs/SDFs using a catchment rainfall runoff or
response function model and
3. A conventional reservoir routing technique to estimate the flood rise over the
dams full supply level (FSL).
The derivation of PMPs in this study is carried out mostly by reviewing the
available past studies and findings in Malaysia. The prevailing PMP convention is
duly reviewed and adopted as appropriate. Catchment response and convolution
lumped parameter model is used to translate PMPs to PMFs for various durations.
Finally, the derived PMFs are then appropriately routed through a lumped parameter
reservoir. The final results of this exercise/undertaking are to ensure that the dam is
not overtopped passing its embankment crest level (ECL).

34
Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP), by definition, according to WMO
(1986, 2009) is the greatest depth (amount) of precipitation, for a given storm
duration, that is theoretically possible for a particular area and geographic location.
PMP is generally derived based on mostly observed maximum rainfall records with
the provision of storm maximization and transposition technique in tandem. Many
floods calculation that are typically evaluated in dam engineering include frequency
based storms (e.g. 2-year or average flow through a 500-year or higher flood) and the
Probable Maximum Flood (PMF), which is developed based mostly on the
occurrence of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP).
Spillway Design Flood (SDF) or Inflow Design Flood (IDF) is another term
that is important in dam/reservoir design. Dams/reservoir structures are mainly
designed or required to safely pass the typically Spillway Design Flood (SDF) or
Inflow Design Flood (IDF). In this regard, it is often used interchangeably with the
term PMF. The magnitude of this type of extreme flows typically range from the
100-year flood in the past to the contemporary adoption of PMF. The selection of a
SDF/IDF/PMF is normally dependent on the classification of hazard category of the
dam structure and the potential for loss of life or property damage that would result
from a dam failure during a given magnitude of flood.
In the past, without or due to limited knowledge and understanding on the
hydrological aspect of dam/reservoir design, the dams are designed based mostly on
the observed floods and past empirical experiences. With the current design
philosophy after acquiring many design experiences worldwide, PMFs are mostly
selected for the purpose of dam/reservoir structure design to ensure the safety of the
downstream riparian users in time of dam breach or failure.
Hydrologic analysis for estimating the SDF/IDF/PMF for dams includes:

Delineating the watershed or drainage boundary contributing to the dam

Developing theoretical precipitation amounts and distribution over the storm


duration

Estimating infiltration to compute runoff volume

Computing runoff distribution based upon a synthetic hydrograph theory

35

Routing of the inflow through the impounding water body (lake, reservoir,
etc.)

In addition to estimating the SDF/IDF/PMF, hydrology for dam projects could


include evaluation of flood protection provided by the structure. Also, many dams
provide water supply and the hydrologic analysis for these structures could extend to
drought hydrology for sizing reservoirs and defining releases to address
environmental concerns.
The tasks of hydrologic analysis to be carried out in the dam safety assessment
can range from simplified equations and methods to relatively complex
computer/mathematical models, including commonly used models developed by the
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and Natural Resources Conservation Service
(NRCS). Currently, these computer models are being interfacing with Geographic
Information Systems (GIS). This has also helped engineers and scientists to develop
watershed parameters more quickly and accurately.
A thorough knowledge of hydrologic analysis for dams/reservoir should be
developed as well as to understand of the hydrologic cycle and flood events and their
interactions and also should be proficient in reading and interpreting topographic
maps and conversant in computer models. In addition, an understanding of working
GIS knowledge is now considered an essential part of dam assessment assignment.
And therefore, a working knowledge of the GIS system is also highly recommended.

36
2

Pmp Review and Study

PMP review and study is one of the main task in this report, this segment of the study
aims to summarize the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) convention used in
the dam/reservoir design in Malaysia. These conventions were mostly adopted by
local dam engineering specialists in their respective undertakings in order to design a
sustainable dam/reservoir.
To design a sustainable dam/reservoir and ensure the safety of the
downstream community of a dam/reservoir, dams are always designed based on
probable maximum precipitations (PMPs) that can possibly occur during the design
life of a reservoir/dam scheme. PMP data is utmost important especially while
derivation of the Spillway Design Flood (SDF). The review and assessment of PMPs
is imperative in light with the proliferation of reservoir and dam development
activities in Malaysia. Besides, as nowadays there are a lots of telemetric stations
were installed at various strategic locations along the river, therefore there is ample
long-term hydrometric information (i.e. rainfall) is made available. This important
and vast database of records could be of use for a thorough PMP assessment which
can greatly improve the accuracy of the result obtained.
The understanding of the PMPs is vital and critical to the development of a
reservoir/dam scheme. This undertaking in general, is suitable for review and
assessment of the PMPs for flood mitigation feasibility study.

37
2.1

Rationale of PMP
The importance of PMP/PMF in dam/reservoir project is its vast and broad

implication to the public safety and disaster prevention downstream of a major water
retaining and regulating structure, such as reservoirs etc. These gigantic structures
should be able to withstand in terms of structural integrity, the torrential forces of
extreme storm event so that disastrous failure such as dam breaching, especially if it
is located in the upland or headwater region or catchment of the populated town or
urban habitat could be avoided.
The assessment of the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is important
in order to derivate the hydrological calculations and hydrological estimation, for
example Probable Maximum Flood (PMF), which in turn is used to design the
reservoir outflow structures, such as spillways, bottom outlets etc. The PMFs derived
from the PMPs is the design flood inflow into the reservoirs where no risk of failure
of dam structure should be allowed to occur.
PMP data within a region is possible to obtain or estimated through
meteorological methods and historical records. The historical observed and sampled
data consists of point precipitation amounts measured at rain gages throughout the
region being studied, or a region with very similar meteorological and topographical
characteristics.
Review and appraisal of the past PMPs segmental studies of various
dam/reservoir designers in Malaysia is crucial to derive the design parameters for
subsequent engineering undertaking. Specifically, methodologies adopted by one of
the major dam designers in Malaysia, SMHB (formerly Binnie & Partners, B&P,
UK). The consulting form have been active and had have carried out major
consultancy works in dam and reservoir design and supervision in Malaysia for over
the past 40 years. The consultant is also the principal engineering consultant for
Semenyih dam in the earlier 1980s.

38
As mentioned previously, the PMP derivation is needed for calculation of
PMF where both the structural safety and integrity of the dam structure as well as the
impact of the torrential flood flows on the safety and hazard mitigation the
downstream riparian users, i.e. populated cities or suburban centres.
It is the intention that the extreme flood flow could safely pass the major
structures, spillway and/or other emergency outlet structures, without damaging
impact on their structural integrity in the event of an extreme event or occurrence of
PMP magnitude.
In Malaysia, the PMP values adopted by specialist dam designer engineering
consultant, SMHB and Binnie and Partners (B&P) group (SMHB/B&P) have been
the primary sources and references for other dam and reservoir designers as well.
Besides methodology espoused by SMHB/B&P, there are a few further major
undertakings on PMP estimation since 1990, i.e. in the Pahang Selangor Water
Transfer

project

(NK/SMHB,

2000),

National

Water

Resources

Study

(SMHB/RB/JPZ, 2000), and an ongoing review undertaken by NAHRIM (2008).


This review primarily addresses on the issues and techniques of PMP
derivation in Peninsular Malaysia and with no coverage or citation for the Borneo
states of Sarawak and Sabah. In the context of this report, comparison and review
are then made as appropriate with respect to the Semenyih reservoir in the original
PMP values for detailed reservoir design.
In the context of this study, the terminology, PMP is defined by the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO 332, 1986 and WMO 1045, 2009) as the
greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration meteorologically possible for a
given basin of a particular time of year, with no allowance made for long-term
trends. Utility of the PMP to generate the PMF is the industrial standard for dam
design worldwide.

39
The development of PMPs for a given basin or catchment can be
complicated, lest time consuming, and requires the expertise input of professional
hydro-meteorologists. However at the operational level, as recommended by WMO
332 and 1045 (1986; 2009) guideline, PMPs can be estimated by both (a)
hydrometeorological and (b) statistical approaches.
The latter is a useful mean for making quick and ballpark estimates and
where other pertinent and comprehensive meteorological data, such as dew point,
and wind records, are lacking to warrant a sophisticated and thorough a hydrometeorological type of analysis.
Other than derivation of PMPs based on the prevailing WMO 332 and 1045
(1986; 2009) manual/guideline, some dam/reservoir projects in Malaysia also
adopted the Australia Bureau of Meteorology (ABM) on both short and long duration
PMP derivation (Bulletin 53; ABM, 2003).
The techniques recommended the estimation of PMPs based on the
climatologic homogeneous zones using several derived depth area duration (DAD)
curves while taking into consideration of the topographic and geographic features.
These techniques are sometimes adopted by Malaysias engineering consultants
based on the premise that the derived PMPs from Australia database and condition
could be transposed to humid tropics region, such as Malaysia as well. As such
PMPs estimates espoused by ABM are generally higher than other techniques
adopted in Malaysia.
As mentioned earlier, two (2) general techniques as described in WMO 332
(1986) are currently being used in Malaysia for derivation of PMPs for reservoir/dam
projects. They are

Hydrometeorological approach by storm maximization and transposition

Hershfield and its variants (Desa et al, 2001; Desa and Rekhecha, 2007);
Statistical/frequency point analysis approach; mainly for checking and
verification purpose.

40

Bulletin 53 (1996, 2003 new addendum) of Australia Bureau of Meteorology


(ABM) is also been used by some dam designers mainly on PMPs derivation and
checking and confirmation.
Brief introduction on these two techniques are presented as follows:

3.2.1.1 Hydrometeorological Approach


The basis of the PMP derivation using the hydrometeorological approach is mostly
based

on

vast

database

of

historical

observed

records

of

maximum

rainfall/precipitation in a specific region. For example, the derivation of PMPs for


Malaysia may not only be based on observed rainfall records in Malaysia per se, but
might also take into consideration regional occurrences of extreme storm events such
as in Indonesia, Thailand or Singapore etc.
Alternatively, as mentioned earlier for dam engineering projects in Malaysia,
the PMP procedures developed by the Australias Bureau of Meteorology (BOM),
which are originally derived based on exclusively observed records in Australia, are
being adopted by Malaysian Designers from time to time.
The prerequisite of a PMP study using hydrometeorological approach is the
availability of storm records for various durations and other meteorological
measurements, such as relative humidity, wind direction, etc. these information in
fact is not available in most of the countries due to expensive outlay and investment
in acquisition of such records.
The first methodological step of the procedure is to extract the highest rainfall
records from the database. These records could be acquired with a modest fee from
the JPS TIDEDA database system and MMS principal rainfall station records.
Other organizations such as large scale oil palm and rubber estate and plantation do

41
have their own rainfall monitoring and sampling programs in place. Their database
might be traced back to the earlier years of burgeoning plantation activities.
However, the information is rather difficult to come by on time.

Most of the

hydrological assessments carried out in Malaysia lest along the organized PMP/PMF
studies do not have the privilege of acquiring such database from various private
entities.
In terms of observed rainfall records, the eastern coastal regions of the
peninsula (Kelantan, Terengganu, Pahang and Eastern Johor) are aggravated by the
annual Northeast Monsoon (from November and extending to January next year).
The rainfall records in this region therefore always provide a good and reliable
source of highest rainfall records for meaningful PMP analysis. The brief procedure
of PMP derivation at the operational level is presented in the following subsection.
The maximum rainfall records for durations starting from 1 day to 5 days are
tabulated and plotted spatially on a regional map. Contours/isohyet or equal
magnitude of rainfall storm depth are then delineated as appropriate. Each associated
influential areas are attributed to a particular rain storm depth are then duly prepared.
This type of plot is termed as PMP depth-area duration curves (DAD).
Normally, depth area curve for duration of more than 1-day could be easily
available in Malaysia as majority of rainfall stations are of non-recording type where
the rainfall depths are measured within a day, i.e. gauging and reading manually at
8.00 am daily.

Three (3) critical processes are required before the derived PMPs

could be adopted.

Envelopment of depth area duration curves: to encompass the highest value

Maximization of precipitable water by determining the state of saturation of


the atmospheric waters at the project site: probable extreme meteorological
condition

Transposition of the derived PMPs to project site by ratios of mean annual


rainfall, maximum rainfall depths for the same duration/periods, etc,

42
Envelopment or the maximization process is then carried out manually and
literally to envelop a highest single curve that encompasses all possible highest
values for that specific duration. An example of envelopment is shown in Figure 3.1
for 1-day rainfall records in the east coast of Peninsula Malaysia (courtesy of
NK/SMHB [2000] Study).
On the other hand, Figure 3.2 and figure 3.3 shows the plot of rainfall deptharea map for 5-day total maximum observed rainfall for some 24 recording and nonrecording type of rainfall stations in the vicinity of Kuala Terengganu during the
months of November to early December in 1986. The enveloping catchment areas
are then delineated for each rainfall depth interval in the form of depth-area table as
shown in Tables 3.2 and 3.3.
Another key step in the derivation of PMP is to maximize the storm of the
individual duration by a factor that relies on both (a) the maximum dew point
temperature and (b) elevation of the project site relative to the mean seal level
(MSL). The former factor generally reflects the increase in precipitable water as a
result of higher dew point temperature. Coefficients ranging from 1.5 to 3.0 are not
uncommon and they are then factored to the derived PMP value for specific duration.
The maximum 24 hour average dew point temperature is normally adopted to
represent the maximum precipitable water scenario.
Transposition is also an essential step is to be taken into consideration by
transposing the PMP from a region where they are being derived to the project sites
of interest which is always located some distances landward in Malaysia where most
of the dams are located.

43

24 hr PMP Rainfall
800
700
600

Rainfall (mm)

500
400
300
200
100

1967

1970

1971

1972

1981

1982

1983

1986

0
1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

Area (km2)
Figure 3.8: 1-Day Depth Duration Area DAD Curve for Storms in East Coast
Peninsular Malaysia after maximization and transposition
Source: NK/SMHB, 2000

44

Figure 3.9: 5-Day Depth Area Curve for 1986 Storm in East Coast Peninsular
Malaysia (November 1986 27th November to 1st December 1986, near Kuala
Terengganu )
Source: SMHB/SSP, 1999, Sg. Kelantan Flood Mitigation

45

Figure 3.10: 5-Day Depth Area Curve for 1986 Storm in East Coast Peninsular
Malaysia

Table 3.2: 5-Day Depth Area Curve/Table for 1986 Storm in East Coast
Peninsular Malaysia November 1986
Station No
5031062
5033069
5102040
5130065
5230041
5230042
5232065
5518035
4923001
4516031
4620045
5322044
5328044
5320038
5520001
5522047
4734079
5221047
5029034
5824080
5824079
4930038
5524002
5722057

Total 5-day Rainfall mm


1408
898
1014
315
849
1149
1224
377
341
35
91
1041
1234
446
203
672
1037
1344
1376
1385
877
1372
1100
743

Source: SMHB/SSP, 1999 Sg. Kelantan Flood Mitigation


Table 3.3: 5-Day Depth Area Curve/Table for 1986 Storm in East Coast
Peninsular Malaysia November 1986

46
27th November to 1st December 1986, near Kuala Terengganu
Rainfall
depth mm

Next
rainfall mm

Surface
area km2

Difference
in area km2

1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
780

1450
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900

202
1146
1879
3084
4871
5711
6104

202
944
733
1205
1787
840
393

Rainfall
mm

Time
Area km2

1425
1363
1319
1253
1179
1145
1125

202
1146
1879
3084
4871
5711
6104

24 hour
33
33%
470
450
435
413
389
378
371

48 hour
20
53%
755
723
699
664
625
607
596

Rainfall
volume
MCM
288
1274
916
1386
1876
798
330
72 hour
17
70%
998
954
923
877
825
801
788

Accumulated
volume
MCM
288
1562
2479
3864
5741
6539
6869
96 hour
17
87%
1240
1186
1148
1090
1025
996
979

Average
rainfall mm
1425
1363
1319
1253
1179
1145
1125
120 hour
13
100%
1425
1363
1319
1253
1179
1145
1125

Generally the transposition of a storm from the east coastal regions of


Peninsular Malaysia will result in reduction in precipitation if it traverses across over
a topographic barrier such as at the main range of the Peninsular Malaysia, i.e.
Banjaran Titiwangsa, which is located in the middle of peninsula. A barrier of such
altitude normally blocks the storm surge during prevailing northeastern monsoon but
on occasion, the monsoonal torrents do spill over to the west coast. Events on
1971 Kuala Lumpur flood and some major flooding events in the northern states of
Kedah and Perlis were the remnant of the monsoon during the months from October
to January next year. For this reason, to transpose maximum rainfall to the west
coastal region of Peninsula Malaysia is normally not adopted in most of the dam
design in the west coastal region. However it is rather common to use PMPs of the
east coastal region as a check and reference.
A review of the available topographic mapping generally would indicate the
extent and influences of the topographic feature and land form pertaining to the
transposition of PMPs. Sometimes a coefficient essentially based on the ratio of the
elevation between project sites and the region where PMPs have been derived could
then be adjusted as deemed necessary.

47

Another technique noteworthy of comparison is the long-term or event based


maximum storm records of the region where PMPs have been derived and the project
sites, if available. It is however of high certainty that the transposition of PMPs
derived in the coastal region to project sites inland without adjustment based on
topographic and observed maximum rainfall depth is unduly conservative.
The derivation of the hydrometerological approach depends strongly on the
availability of the rainstorm records. For a longer duration of more than 24 hour or 1
day, records are mostly available in Malaysia. However for less than 24 hour
duration, observed records are generally lacking due to expensive capital as well as
operating costs of acquiring recording type of rainfall depth. Due to scarcity of the
short duration rainfall records, it is sometimes reasonable to adopt short duration
PMP procedure published by ABM in Australia.
Several dam (outlet structures and spillways) designs in Malaysia have been
based on this premise and principle of PMP transposition from Australia to Malaysia,
i.e. Kenyir, Pergau, Kelinchi, Kinta, Ahning, Prang Besar (Putrajaya), Batu Hampar,
Bengoh, Jelai, and dam design projects mostly associated with Australian
consultants.

3.2.1.2 Hershfield Technique

48

The procedure by Hershfield (WMO, 1986; 2009) is a statistically based


methodology relying on the theoretical background of frequency or probability
analysis of occurrence or non-occurrence of events of specific level of severity. It
resembles a general frequency factor equation (Chow et al., 1988) as shown below.

X t = Xn + KS n
X t = rainfall for return period t
Xn = mean of a maximum annual series
Sn = standard deviation of a maximum annual series
K = normalized frequency factor
The frequency factor varies with different type of probability distribution
commonly used in the hydrologic frequency analysis.
Similarly, in the Hershfield analogy, if the maximum observed rainfall (
and the frequency factor ( K m ) are substituted for

Xt

Xm

and K respectively, then a

frequency factor type of equation is formed.


Both

Xn

and

Km

factors represent the arithmetical mean and the number

of standard deviations deviated from the sample or annual maximum series


respectively. Hershfield found out that

Km

varies depending on the number of

extreme data that could be obtained from the sample and to a certain extent the
magnitude of maximum rain storm recorded by the station.
Hershfield recommended a frequency factor of 15 as the universal maximum
value to be adopted after analyzing thoroughly a vast maximum rainfall records
database worldwide. Since its advent in the earlier 1960s, subsequent revisions,
modifications, and improvements have also been carried out (Koutsoyiannis, 1999),
and locally in Malaysia, Desa and Rakhecha (2007, 2009). The commonly adopted
frequency factor originally proposed by Hershfield is found to be overly conservative
and modification should be made to suit local climatic and meteorological
variability. Therefore, some of these adjustments made in subsequent studies take

49
into account on the data quantity, such as the length of the records, maximum records
rainfall, etc.
APPENDIX A shows the adjustment factors as proposed in WMO 332 and
1045 (1986, 2009).
The Hershfield form of the PMP equation is presented as follows:

X m = X m + K m Sn
X m = PMP values for any duration (mm)
X m = Mean or first moment of annual maxima series (sample) (mm)
K m = Frequency factor attributed to Hershfield, normally 15 is adopted (ND)
S n = Standard deviation or second moment of annual maxima series (sample) (mm)

ADJUSTMENT OF

Xn

AND

Sn

FOR MAXIMUM OBSERVED EVENT

Outliers are often found to have occurred at some time during much shorter period of
record, say, 30 years. They may have an appreciable effect on the mean and standard
deviation of the annual maximum series. However, the magnitude of this effect is
less prominent for long records as compared to short records. In short, PMP varies
with the presence of outliers. Hershfield (WMO, 1986, 2009) recommended that
adjustments for both

Xn

and

Sn

with lengths of annual maximum series. These

factors could be referred in WMO 332 (1986, 2009) publication on estimation of


PMPs.

50
DATA REQUIREMENT FOR HERSHFIELD TYPE PMP
Data requirement for Hershdield type of PMP estimation procedure is simple and
straightforward. First of all, long-term annual maxima series for various durations
are obtained from digital hydrometric library. In Malaysia they are acquired mostly
from JPS TIDEDA system database using PEXTREME/PMOVE built-in routine.
The short duration annual maxima series (arbitrarily defined as less than 24
hour storm duration) could also be extracted from these long-term database of
automatic (or known as recording) rainfall stations where the rainfall depth register is
of small time step resolution.
On the other hand, long duration series (i.e. equal or greater than 1 day) are
obtained mostly from non-recording stations where daily observed rainfall depths of
each station are duly recorded daily.
DERIVATION OF PMP USING HERSHFIELD PROCEDURE
Hershfield procedure is carried out conveniently using an Excel spreadsheet setup.
The step-by-step procedure is described as follows:

Annual maxima storm series of varying durations, i.e. from 15-minutes to 6day

are summarized in a table format;

The mean ( X n ) and standard deviation ( S n ), i.e. first and second moments
of the sample of the annual maxima series for each duration are then
computed respectively;

The PMPs for each individual duration are then calculated using Hershfield
equation (these PMP values are Unadjusted PMPs);

The adjusted values of

X n m

and

S n m

are then estimated from Figures 4.2

and 4.3 of WMO 332 (1986) to the mean and standard deviation of the annual
maxima series after excluding the maximum observed records in the series;
and

The PMPs for each individual duration are then repeated using adjusted
X n m

and

S n m

(results as Adjusted PMPs).

51

Due to the tediousness and elaborated data requirement of hydrometeorological


approach, sometimes, the Hershfield procedure is carried out (as historical rainfall
records are relatively easier to acquire) in most feasibility and preliminary design
studies. It is sometimes also been used for cross checking purpose vis--vis other
published PMPs of other studies.
One of the advantages of the Hershfield procedure, inter alia, is the considerably
less time input is needed to derive PMPs vis--vis the hydro-meteorological
approach. Above all, it is also easier to understand (as it is a form of probability or
frequency analysis commonly used in the statistical science and hydrology, Chow et
al, 1988) and is practical and robust. However, a major drawback of this simple
approach is its point values of PMP estimation and thus suitable area-reduction
factors (ARF) are applicable for adjusting the point values to transpose to various
sizes of basin area.
Alternatively, various type of regionalization techniques, such as cluster analysis,
index rainfall, and geostatistical approach of Kriging, etc.
A relatively simpler approach is none other than an areal wide isohyetal PMP
maps that could also be produced with adequate point rainfall stations as shown in
the contour map for rainfall in the states of Selangor and Johor (see Figures 3.4 and
3.5).
For comparison purpose, it is considered adequate and sufficient to provide such
a check in line with the good practices of the hydrological design for a sizable project
where failure of the engineering structures will have detrimental effects on the
downstream riparian users.

52

Figure 3.11: Selangor PMP: 1-day (Desa, Noriah, and Rakhecha, 2001)

53

Figure 3.12: Johor PMP: 1-day (Desa And Rakhecha, 2007)

54
2.2

Adopted PMP Convention by SMHB/B&P

As one of the premier dam designers, SMHB (and its predecessor, Binnie and
Partners) generally adopts a uniform set of PMP values derived from their past
numerous dam design experiences in Singapore and Malaysia (i.e. Seletar, Upper
Pierce, Langat, Semenyih, Terip, Linggiu; Durian Tunggal before 1990; Selangor,
Tinggi, , Chereh, Teriang, Jus after 1990).
Specifically, three (3) specific reports/studies formed the basis of PMP
derivation at that time before 1990. They were (1) SSP/HH (1979), (2) B&P (1980),
and (3) SSP/SMEC (1985) for project locations in southern Johor and Singapore.
These PMP values have since being adopted for almost all reservoir design projects
undertaken by SMHB/B&P.
Notable major dam project undertakings were Seletar and Upper Pierce dams
in Singapore, Semenyih, Langat, Tinggi, and Selangor dams in Selango, Linggiu and
Juasseh dams in Johor, Terip and Teriang dams in Negri Sembilan, Chereh dam in
Pahang, Durian Tunggal and Jus dams in Melaka, Gerugu dam in Sarikei, Sarawak,
etc.
The PMP in the context of SMHB/B&P lexicon is arbitrarily divided into
both short- and long- storm duration. By definition, the dividing line is at the 24hour duration. However, there is also exception where 6-hour duration is sometimes
used to define the boundary between the short and long durations as being adopted
by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM) in their dam design projects in
Malaysia. However it should be borne in mind that the demarcation is simply
adopted for convenience by various organizations.
The PMP values adopted by SMHB/B&P are further classified into two
series, i.e. (1) Coastal and (2) Inland. This purportedly takes into consideration the
vast difference in meteorological and geographical factors, as their names implied at
both peninsular coastal, comprising of primarily east coastal region and inland,

55
mainly interior part of the Peninsular regions. For short duration PMPs, the values
adopted as Coastal PMP are based mostly on the Singapore rainstorm of 1978.
After adjustment for an appropriate transposition factor, it is transposed
inland (specifically for Semenyih reservoir design project), this series is therefore
known as Inland PMP. This series was used in most of the dam design projects
undertaken by SMHB/B&P since then, including recent Tinggi and Selangor dams in
Selangor, and Teriang dam which is now under construction, in Negri Sembilan.
Table below shows both coastal and inland PMPs derived and adopted by
SMHB/B&P for duration ranges from 1- to 120-hour.
Table 3.4: Coastal and Inland PMP (Short- and Long-Duration) adopted by
SMHB
Duration (hour)
Coastal PMP (mm)
Inland PMP (mm)
1211/190.5#
188
3338
300
6440
391
12584
518
24777
692
Long Duration PMP (arbitrarily defined for this review)
481356
908
721593
1067
1202030
1360
# 19.5 mm or 7.5 in is originally quoted but 211mm is back calculated from 188 mm

56
SHORT-DURATION PMP
The basis of the PMP derivation for SMHB/B&P was based on the premise of actual
measured records of maximum rainfall both in Malaysia and Singapore. Some
notable highest rainfall records are presented as below (as quoted from SMHB,
1992). These measured records formed the basis of short duration PMP series for
dam/reservoir design (see Table 3.1: Recorded Maximum Rainfall, NAHRIM
2008).

Near Kuantan in late December 1926, with the bulk of the rainfall falling
between 27th and 31st of December including 631 mm (24.85 inches) within one
day at the Jeram Kuantan Estate;

In Singapore on 17th July 1941 when in a very intense but relatively short storm
65.6 mm was recorded in 30 minutes, 120 mm in 60 minutes and 147 mm in 2
hours;

In Singapore on 9th and 10th December 1969 when 478 mm was recorded in 24
hours;

Near Mersing between 29th December and 4th January 1971 when 541 mm
occurred in a 24 hour period and a total of 1453 mm (1600 mm and1800 mm are
being reported elsewhere) was measured in 120 hours; and

In southern Johor and Singapore on 2nd and 3rd of December 1978 when 537 mm
was recorded in a 24-hour period at Serangoon Sewage Disposal Works with
values been recorded concurrently at two other stations on Singapore.
The December 1978 storm in southern Johor and Singapore was primarily

selected as basis for short duration PMP derivation because it was the most severe
recorded storm in the southern region of the Peninsula Malaysia other than the
highest recorded storm in Jeram, Pahang (unfortunately actual water depth was not
accurately quantified). These short duration PMPs are derived by maximizing the 24hour rainstorm during 2nd and 3rd December, 1978 in both southern Johor and
Singapore.
A 24-hour record of rainfall (536.5 mm) was recorded at the Serangoon Sewage
Disposal Works (SDW) station. In addition, observed rainfalls of about 533 mm

57
were also recorded concurrently at both Kim Chuan Road Sewerage Works and
Sembawang Agricultural Research Station in Singapore.
From screening the up-to-date observed records, there are no recent recorded
extreme storm events that exceed the derived PMP values to warrant revision or
review of the short term duration PMPs. Although in the recent NAHRIM (2008)
study highest long-duration observed rainfalls were found in the state of Kelantan
and Terenggnau (see Table 3.5). Nevertheless, the highest values were of single
station to be rather representative of an areal wide storm event.
For convenience, in some design undertakings also adopt in to Australias ABM
short duration PMP enveloping curves for humid tropics region (NK/SMHB, 2000).
This is presumably based on the premises and assumptions that the observed
maximum storm records in Australia could be transposed to regions in South East
Asia as well. These values are higher than the SMHBs short duration PMPs.

58
Table 3.5: Recorded Rainfall (NAHRIM 2008)

STORM MAXIMIZATION OF SHORT DURATION STORM


The storm depth is commonly maximized based on the ratio/index of maximum
precipitable water in the air column to the actual precipitable water during the storm
(as a function of maximum and persistent dew point temperature for 12-hour at 1000
mb).
Based on an average of the recorded values at Paya Lebar Airport and Changi
Airfield/Airport the 24-hour persisting 1000 mb dew point temperature at the
beginning of December 1978 storm was 23.8o C. At this dew point temperature the
precipitable water in the atmosphere prior to the storm was estimated at 73.5 mm.

59
The period of dew point temperature was searched based on hourly records
from 1955 to 1978 presumably from the historical database of the Paya Lebar Airport
station and Changing Airfield.
Coupled with the consideration of the limiting influence of the maximum sea
temperature, it was deduced that the estimated maximum 24-hour persisting dew
point temperature could not be possibly more than 28oC (as originally presented in
PUB, 1980). At this dew point temperature, the corresponding precipitable water
was 106.8 mm.
The storm-maximizing factor is then calculated simply as an index of the
ratio of the maximum precipitable water to the prevailing precipitable water content
prior to the storm, i.e. 106.8/73.5= 1.45. Therefore the maximum rainfall that could
possibly occur in 24 hours is 1.45 *536.5 mm, i.e. 777 mm. For PMP of less than
24-hour duration, similar methodology/technique was applied in terms of
maximization to derive 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-hour duration PMPs.

TRANSPOSITION OF SHORT DURATION STORM


Transposition is another ensuing major step in PMP studies. Transposition of storms
from one location to others is subjected to various important contributing
meteorological as well as geographical and topographical factors such as, presence of
topographic barrier, elevation adjustment, distances from the storm center, and
meteorological factors etc.
However in SMHB/B&P practices, primarily due to scarcity of the
meteorological data and high uncertainties in the chosen transposition technique,
estimation of PMP values at the coastal region (assuming that Singapore is located in
the geographically similar coastal region) might not be able to carry out after all. As
such, SMHB/B&P adopted both short- and long-duration PMP values without taking
into account the transposition factor for PMP derivation in mostly coastal region.

60
Though it is a conservative measure, but it should be acceptable in the absence of
both concrete authoritative recommendations and limitations in understandings and
knowledge of PMP derivation in Malaysia.
Nevertheless, for interior region, the consensus amongst the experts in
various SMHB/B&P branch office hydrological groups opined that by adopting
coastal PMP without taking into account the transposition effect was somehow
unduly conservative. Therefore, some forms of downward adjustment should be
made for such purpose. An example of the application of transposition technique was
demonstrated in the derivation of PMP values for Semenyih dam.
In this particular study, the PMP derived from 1978 storm in Singapore was
transposed to the Semenyih dam site. By taking into consideration the highest
persistent dew point temperature in the State of Selangor (assuming PKM Petaling
Jaya station is representative of the whole state of Selangor, at 26.7 oC; precipitable
water 95 mm), the transposing factor was estimated as 0.89 (95/106.8=0.89). This
amounting to some 11% reduction was primarily considered justifiable due to
relatively lower historical persistent dew point temperature in the state of Selangor.
By making the same assumption that the PMP at the Semenyih dam site is
having the same probability of occurrence in the northern catchment, the PMP series
was also subsequently been adopted for the detailed design studies of both Tinggi
(formerly known as Buloh) and Selangor dams in the Sg. Selangor basin
respectively. Table 3.6 shows the adopted coastal and inland PMP values by SMHB
for various durations, i.e. 1- to 24-hour.

61
Table 3.6: Comparison of PMP of Coastal and Inland PMP Values
Duration (hour)
1-

Coastal PMP (mm) *


Inland PMP (mm) #
211 (190.5 mm or 7.5 in)
188
&
3337
300
6439
391
12582
518
24777
692
Col3 *transposition factor, 0.89; * based on Singapore 1978 storm; # Semenyih dam
design; & in original text
It should be reiterated that the adopted PMP values by SMHB though not
strictly are based on WMO (1986, 2009) guideline per se, for which incorporating
rather complex maximization and transposition approaches, nevertheless the general
principles on maximization and transposition techniques are duly and consistently
obeyed. In addition, the WMO approaches require some detailed meteorological as
well as topographic information for which most of the times are unavailable.
This essentially precludes an elaborate and thorough PMP studies in line with
the WMO 332, 1045 (1986, 2009). This is particularly true for the case in Malaysia,
as most of these meteorological parameters and data are difficult to come by in the
earlier years of 1960s and 1970s. These two series of PMP are adopted for designs
and studies undertaken by SMHB subsequently.
Other transposition approaches for subsequent dam design assignment was
also undertaken, such as those adopted in the recent Kelantan River Flood Mitigation
Plan (SSP/SMHB, 1997), based mostly on the assumptions of reducing storm
intensity and volumes when a storm travels in land from the coast to the dam
catchments mostly located in the interior region of Kelantan. Analyses of the rainfall
data immediately after the storm did support such observation. In this study, several
transposition factors were derived, such as based on the ratios of annual rainfall, wet
seasonal rainfall, maximum 5-day rainfall, and multiple regression approach of 5-day
100-year maximum rainfall.

62
These transposition factors were estimated ranges from as high as 0.92 to as
low as 0.40. After diligent deduction, a medium value of 0.70 and 0.85 was finally
selected for Kemubu and Lebir dams respectively (SSP/SMHB, 1997).

LONG-DURATION PMP
Long duration PMP adopted by SMHB/B&P is based on the maximization of the
December 1970 and January 1971 storm records of Mersing and Air Tawar rainfall
stations near Endau. These values have also been previously used earlier studies by
SSP/SMEC (1985; as quoted in SMHB, 1985) flood studies on Sg. Batu Pahat basin.
SSP/SMEC (1985) study used maximum rainfall records at Mersing
Meteorological Station for their works but it was reported later by SMHB (1985) that
recent investigation indicated several other rainfall stations recorded maximum
rainfall in excess of those reported by SSP/SMEC (1985).
Notably, the highest total rainfalls were at Air Tawau School near Endau with
maximum 5- and 7-day total of 1453 mm and 1632 mm respectively. Other rainfall
stations nearby, JPT Setor in Endau, about 5 km from the Air Tawar School station
also recorded higher rainfall, i.e. 1600 mm for 5-120 hour within a 7-day duration.
This infers unrestricted total records from automatic station at JPS store in Endau, 5
km away from Air Tawar School. The 120-hour or 5-day PMP was 2030 mm if
maximization factor (i.e. about 1.27) was taken into consideration (SMHB, 1986).
Table 3.7 shows the long duration PMPs adopted by SMHB in its respective
dam design assignment.

63
Table 3.7: Coastal and Inland PMPs (Long-Duration) adopted by SMHB
Duration (hour)
Coastal PMP (mm)
Inland PMP (mm)
(1)
(2)
(3)
Short Duration PMP
24-*
777
* 692
Long Duration PMP
48-#
1356
# 908
72-#
1593
# 1067
120-#
2030
# 1360
col 2* 0.89; # col 2*0.67

MAXIMIZATION OF LONG DURATION STORM


For 120-hour storm, a maximization factor of 1.40 has been used. It is therefore
assumed that storms between 24- to 120-hour duration would have adopted the same
factor.

TRANSPOSITION OF LONG DURATION STORM


For transposition, a factor of 0.67 was applied for PMP duration of more than 24
hour. This factor was adopted based on the USBR recommendation in their review of
PMP estimates for the Batu, Gombak, and Klang Gates dams (as quoted in SMHB,
1994; USBR, 1984).

64
3.2.6

REVIEW ON OTHER PMP STUDIES IN MALAYSIA

A fair and reliable source of PMP studies is from the past studies carried out by
various engineering consultants in Malaysia. The results of PMPs needless to say, are
also based on the consultants engineering intuitions and their relative accumulated
experiences especially in reservoir/dam engineering design and construction projects.
These are good sources for reference and therefore, accorded with priority to
review their findings as appropriate. A short summary of PMP estimates of various
reservoir/dam projects in Malaysia is presented previously in Table 3.5.
Of particular interest to this study, PMP reports and studies in Peninsula
Malaysia, particularly in the State of Selangor (of which seven (7) existing
dams/reservoirs are located including Batu and Klang Gates dam under the
jurisdiction of Kuala Lumpur are located) are also utmost relevant in this review.
In addition comparison to the world maximum value is also imperative.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) maintains a register of record of
maximum precipitation throughout the world (see Table 3.8). Figure 3.6 shows the
world maximum PMPs as varied with the storm duration.
Table 3.8: World Highest Precipitation
Duration
1
8
15
20
42
60
2.17
2.75
4.5
6
9
10
18.5
24
2
3
4
5

Units
min

hours

days

Duration
(minute)
1
8
15
20
42
60
130.2
165
270
360
540
600
1110
1440
2880
4320
5760
7200

Rainfall
(mm)
38
126
198
206
305
401
483
559
782
840
1,087
1,400
1,689
1,825
2,467
3,130
3,721
4,301

Source: WMO 1986

65

10000

0.5173

y = 42.929x
2
R = 0.9962

mm

1000

100

10
1

10

100

1000

10000

min

Figure 3.13: World Highest Precipitation: Depth Vs Duration

It is undoubtedly that during the course of dam and reservoir engineering


design in Malaysia, PMP/PMF derivations for various projects are primarily hinged
on the practices and conventions that are familiar to the engineering consultants.
Fragmentation and diversification of opinion are the norms as the PMPs
derived respectively vary from consultants own experiences in their undertakings.
Thus this appears to be subject of contention and judgement. For example,
SMHB/B&P relies mostly on the storm records in the Southern Johor in their

66
deliberation of PMP values for various dam/reservoir projects in Malaysia, whilst
some other consultants rely mostly on the practices of ABM. Opinions and PMPs are
thus greatly varied from one consultancy practices to the others. Recent NAHRIM
(2009) shows that the maximum observed rainfalls in the east coastal region of
Kelantan and Terengganu have surpassed the observed maximum in Mersing, Air
Tawar in the southern state of Johor.
One of the first unified attempts/efforts made to present a comprehensive
review and derivation of the PMP in Malaysia, was a paper presented in the 1-day
Specialty Seminar by Jabatan Pengairan dan Saliran and Humid Tropic Center
(JPS/HTC) using Hershfield statistical methodology (WMO 1986, 2009) and
subsequent several publications was made by the same authors for PMPs in the states
of Selangor and Johor.
Under the auspice of National Water Resources Study 2000-2050
(SMHB/RB/JPZ, 2000), a peninsular wide PMP study was carried out as part of the
baseline or background design parameters for future dam/reservoir schemes in
Malaysia. PMPs for various durations, starting from 1- to 120-hour were derived
using storm maximization of point rainfall station throughout Peninsular Malaysia.
Regionalization of the point rainfall stations was carried out by mapping the
isohyetal line or contour ranging from 1- to 120 hour. Figure 3.7 shows a 24-hour
PMP contour map for peninsular Malaysia.

67

Figure 3.14: Peninsular Malaysia PMP: 1-day (Al Mamun and Hashim, 2004;
originally published in NWRS (2000))

68
Other than local interests and efforts in PMP derivation, a paper on the
estimation of PMP based on proxy (i.e. radar satellite) data was also available for
review. In this paper, the results of PMPs derived in Malaysia were compared to the
observed radar reading. This paper was originally presented in a workshop on
satellite weather forecasting in Uruguay (http\\www.unesco.org.uy) and subsequently
a full paper and results were published in Elseviers Journal of Hydrology. In this
study, comparison and references on PMP values were also made on a small
subcatchment of Sg. Terengganu basin in the eastern coastal region of the Peninsula
Malaysia. Due its relevance to the PMP study, this particular paper was reviewed as
appropriate and pertinent information is therefore excerpted for comparison purpose.
SMHB/B&P PMP estimations for various dam design projects undertaken in
Malaysia were based largely on the findings and opinions of SSP/HH (1979), B&P
(1980), and subsequent review on Bekok dam by SSP/SMEC (1985) for both shortand long-duration events.
Alternatively, Statistical approach, i.e. Hershfield technique, suitable for
regions with scarce hydrometric data (dew points, wind records, etc), is sometimes
used for checking and verification as deemed appropriate. With sufficient and
significant in length of the historical rainfall records, Hershfield technique can be
performed readily. As a result, collaborated efforts by JPS/HTC to estimate 24-hour
PMP based on statistical technique in Selangor and Johor were materialized.
In addition, a detailed hydrological study was also carried for the detailed
design of the Perang Besar dam in the new Government Administrative Center of
Putrajaya in southern Selangor. Besides, independent reviews on the PMP using
hydro-meteorological or traditional approach was also undertaken in a hydrology
study by Nippon-Koei/SMHB in earlier 2000. The results obtained by this specific
study basically confirmed the earlier SSP/SMHB (1996) study on PMP derivations in
the state of Kelantan using east coastal observed storms.

69
The following reports/studies are reviewed and the results of PMP derived and
used in their respective reservoir or dam design projects are presented in the
following subsections accordingly.
1

Langat Miles 24 Dam Stage II Design, March 1976

Dams on Sg. Bekok and Sg. Semberong, Detailed Investigation and Design:
Hydrology, SSP and Howard Humphrey, October 1979

Modifications to the Seletar and Upper Peirce Reservoirs to Provide Additional


Storage, PUB, B&P, 1980

Klang River Basin integrated Flood Mitigation Projects, Malaysia, Final Report,
Kinhill Engineer Pty Ltd in association with Ranhill Bersekutu Sdn Bhd,
November 1994

Kelantan River Flood Mitigation Plan Feasibility Study, SSP/SMHB, 1999

Putrajaya: Perang Besar Reservoir Design Study, Angkasa-GHD, 1998

Radar and Storm Model-based Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation in


the Tropics, P.J. Hardaker and C.G. Collier, 1999, www.unesco.org.uy

National Water Resources Study 2000-2050, Hydrology Chapter on PMP


Derivation, SMHB/RHB/ZAABA, 2000

Pahang-Selangor Raw Water Transfer Project Engineering Services and Detailed


Engineering Design: Hydrology, August 2000

10 Probable Maximum Precipitation for 24 Hours Duration over Southeast Asian


Monsoon Region- Selangor Malaysia, Desa, Noriah, Rakhecha. Extreme of the
Extreme Rainfall in Selangor, JPS/HTC Seminar, September 2000
11 Short Duration Extreme Rainfall in Selangor, Desa and Rakhecha, ICUH 2002.
Proceeding 2002
12 Gelami Dam Design Hydrological Study, JPS, 2002
13 Sg. Kelinchi Dam Water Resources Study, SSP/MM, 2001
14 Feasibility Study on Water Resources Development for Seremban and Port
Dickson, SSP/SMEC, 1990
APPENDIX B summaries some of the PMPs adopted by above mentioned studies.

3.2.7

TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF PMP

70

Temporal pattern of the PMPs is needed for convoluting the inflow hydrographs to
the reservoir. This can be accomplished by knowing the temporal or time distribution
of the PMP pattern in a region. Normally to carry out the task of deriving temporal
pattern of storm rainfall occurrence requires task of searching through the recorded
rainfall database. The observed temporal distribution could therefore be used to
represent the PMPs in a given watershed or basin. Fortunately in Malaysia, these
temporal patterns are being well documented in the JPS standard engineering manual
of practices. Several pattern or arrangement of rainfall is available as follows:
(1) Bell shape time distribution of PMPs for all durations is generally acceptable for
this purpose in reservoir/dam design.
(2) Patterns up to 6-hour time interval such as tabulated in the MSMA Manual (JPS,
2000)
(3) Patterns from 3 hour up to 24-hour obtained from JPS Hydrological Procedure
No: 1 (Fadhillah et al, 1982)
Tables 3.9 and 3.10 show the fractions and inland PMP distributions for bell
shaped temporal pattern from 3- to 48 hour, whereas Tables 3.11 show the PMP
temporal fractions for 3- and 6-hour duration in MSMA (2000).

Temporal pattern

presented in the Hydrological Procedure No: 1 (Fadhillah et al, 1982) is shown in


Figures 3.8 to 3.12.
Experiences showed that amongst the tree temporal patterns as mentioned
above, bell shape pattern is commonly associated with PMP/PMF undertakings.
Most if not all dam/reservoir design projects in Malaysia are based on this form of
distribution which convolutes the highest PMF for a given PMP distribution.
Figure 3.13 shows the bell shape temporal pattern of the PMPs adopted in
this study.

71

Table 3.9: Temporal Storm Pattern: Fraction


time hour
FRACTION
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0

TOTAL

3 hour
storm time hour

6 hour
storm time hour

0.043
0.072
0.485
0.286
0.071
0.043

0.020
0.023
0.029
0.043
0.074
0.411
0.211
0.075
0.036
0.035
0.022
0.021

1.000

0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0

1.000

0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0

12 hour
storm time hour
0.010
0.010
0.012
0.011
0.014
0.015
0.017
0.026
0.033
0.041
0.061
0.350
0.151
0.060
0.037
0.038
0.018
0.018
0.017
0.018
0.011
0.011
0.010
0.011
1.000

1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0
17.0
18.0
19.0
20.0
21.0
22.0
23.0
24.0

24 hour
storm time hour
0.010
0.010
0.012
0.011
0.014
0.015
0.017
0.026
0.033
0.041
0.061
0.350
0.151
0.060
0.037
0.038
0.018
0.018
0.017
0.018
0.011
0.011
0.010
0.011
1.000

2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
28.0
30.0
32.0
34.0
36.0
38.0
40.0
42.0
44.0
46.0
48.0

48 hour
storm
0.010
0.010
0.012
0.011
0.014
0.015
0.017
0.026
0.033
0.041
0.061
0.350
0.151
0.060
0.037
0.038
0.018
0.018
0.017
0.018
0.011
0.011
0.010
0.011
1.000

72
Table 3.10: Temporal Storm Pattern: Inland PMPs for various Durations

time hour
mm
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0

Total

3 hour
storm time hour
300
12.9
0.5
21.6
1.0
145.5
1.5
85.8
2.0
21.3
2.5
12.9
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0

300

6 hour
storm time hour
391
7.8
0.5
9.0
1.0
11.3
1.5
16.8
2.0
28.9
2.5
160.7
3.0
82.5
3.5
29.3
4.0
14.1
4.5
13.7
5.0
8.6
5.5
8.2
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
391

12 hour
storm time hour
518
5.2
1.0
5.2
2.0
6.2
3.0
5.7
4.0
7.3
5.0
7.8
6.0
8.8
7.0
13.5
8.0
17.1
9.0
21.2
10.0
31.6
11.0
181.3
12.0
78.2
13.0
31.1
14.0
19.2
15.0
19.7
16.0
9.3
17.0
9.3
18.0
8.8
19.0
9.3
20.0
5.7
21.0
5.7
22.0
5.2
23.0
5.7
24.0
518

24 hour
storm time hour
692
6.9
2.0
6.9
4.0
8.3
6.0
7.6
8.0
9.7
10.0
10.4
12.0
11.8
14.0
18.0
16.0
22.8
18.0
28.4
20.0
42.2
22.0
242.2
24.0
104.5
26.0
41.5
28.0
25.6
30.0
26.3
32.0
12.5
34.0
12.5
36.0
11.8
38.0
12.5
40.0
7.6
42.0
7.6
44.0
6.9
46.0
7.6
48.0
692

48 hour
storm
908
9.1
9.1
10.9
10.0
12.7
13.6
15.4
23.6
30.0
37.2
55.4
317.8
137.1
54.5
33.6
34.5
16.3
16.3
15.4
16.3
10.0
10.0
9.1
10.0
908

73
Table 3.11: Temporal Storm Pattern: Fraction
JPS MSMA (2000) for 3- and 6-hour Duration
time hour
FRACTION
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0

3 hour
storm
0.06
0.22
0.34
0.22
0.12
0.04

time hour

6 hour
storm

0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0

0.160
0.160
0.205
0.205
0.055
0.055
0.040
0.040
0.025
0.025
0.015
0.015

Example for 391 mm 6 hour storm


time hour
mm
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0

sum

3 hour
storm
300
18.0
66.0
102.0
66.0
36.0
12.0

300.0

time hour
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0

6 hour
storm
391
62.6
62.6
80.2
80.2
21.5
21.5
15.6
15.6
9.8
9.8
5.9
5.9
391.0

74

Figure 3.15: Temporal Storm Pattern (west coast 3 hours): HP No: 1 (1982)

Figure 3.16: Temporal Storm Pattern (west coast 6 hours): HP No: 1 (1982)

75

Figure 3.17: Temporal Storm Pattern (west coast 12 hours): HP No: 1 (1982)

Figure 3.18: Temporal Storm Pattern (west coast 24 hours): HP No: 1 (1982)

76

Figure 3.19: Temporal Storm Pattern (west coast 72 hours): HP No: 1 (1982)

300.0
250.0

mm

200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

hr
3h

12 h

24 h

Figure 3.20: Temporal Storm Pattern: Bell Shape Curve 3-, 12-, and 24- Hour
24 Hour @ 0.5 and 1 Hour Time Step Increment

77
2.3

Areal Reduction Factor (ARF)

Areal Reduction Factor (ARF) is defined as Ratio of a mean areal rainfall for a given
duration and given return period to a mean point rainfall for the same duration and
same return period in the same area. Areal reduction factor (ARF) is a key quantity
in the design that used to adjust the PMP values from point to areal or catchment
wide domain. The adjusted PMP values will then used for generating PMF values.
The main reason to adjusting the PMP values is to prevent hydrologic extremes or in
overestimate of PMPs. This reduction accomplished by multiplying the point PMP to
an appropriate reduction coefficient.
Figure 3.14 shows ARFs for duration ranging from 0.5- to 24 hour that are
originated from US National Weather Services (NWS) and are also being widely
adopted in Malaysia.
For a smaller reservoir catchment area, the reduction factors are negligible.
They are ranging from 0.83 to 0.98 for durations starting from 0.5- to 24-hour. It is
therefore proposed that no reduction factor will be taken into account in the
derivation of PMFs.

Figure 3.21 Areal Reduction Factor: ARF (NWS, USA)

78
3

Probable Maximum Flood

3.1

Introduction

Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is derived from observed maximum rainfall


records with some stringent rule and provision of storm maximization and
transposition procedure in tandem (WMO, 1986, 2009).

Theoretically, the

magnitude of precipitation (or rainfall) on par with the PMP event is perhaps never
observed in the life time of a reservoir/dam structure. As discussed earlier, PMPs are
basically reviewed from time to time with additional observed maximum records
over the years. However, there is no guideline on the span or interval of such review
should be taken place.
Based mostly on practical experiences in Malaysia, PMPs are derived based
on the historical maximum rainfall records mostly in the east coastal regions of the
Peninsular Malaysia. These states are from the northeastern corner of Kelantan,
proceeding down to the southern tip of the Peninsular Malaysia, including the states
of Terengganu, Pahang, and most of the eastern seaboard of the state of Johor. These
particular regions experience the most heaviest downfalls during the monsoonal
months from November to earlier February of next calendar years (known as
Northeastern Monsoon, locally). The storms can run for a span of several days to a
week with intermittent rainfall events of various intensities.
The observed records that were collected over the years, both recording and
non recording maximum rainfalls alike. These records provide the basis of PMP
derivation. Major undertakings were carried out in the Kelantan Flood Mitigation
Project (SMHB/SSP, 1997) and Interstate Raw Water Transfer from Pahang to
Selangor (NK/SMHB, 2000).
The PMPs as mentioned earlier, are seldom observed in real world or else the
adoption of such PMP values in dam and reservoir design would be considered a
gross underestimatation. It is generally according to the world wide practices in dam
design, adopted for the design of the dam structure (in addition, this methodology is

79
also applicable in the nuclear power facility design) out of concern for public safety
in light of the occurrence of the exceptionally heavy rainfall events.
The outlet structures (sluice gates and spillways) of a dam shall be able to
evacuate an extreme flood of PMP magnitude. To estimate the incoming flood into a
reservoir, an appropriate technique is needed to translate the PMPs into probable
maximum flood (PMF). In turn it is adopted for the spillway design of a dam.
The objective of this segment of the study is to address the mechanisms and
procedures on the translation of the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) using Probable
Maximum Precipitation (PMP) derived and addressed earlier in the PMP issue. The
technique is termed as convolution. The Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is
defined by the World Meteorological Organization (1986; 2009) as a quantity of
precipitation that is close to the physical upper limit for a given duration that is
meteorologically possible over a particular basin.
By the same definition, PMF is the flood that may be expected from the most
severe combination of critical meteorological and hydrologic factors/conditions that
are reasonably possible in a particular catchment basin/area (Chow et al, 1988). The
Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) is derived from the Probable Maximum
Precipitation (PMP) is the design flood inflow into reservoirs where involve in
spillways design. So that, designing spillways using PMF is to avoid the overtopping
of dams and avoid from failure of dam structure.
It is always necessary to determine the largest flood possible at a location
when designing a dam for maximum reliability as well as safety. In the case where
the risk of dam overtopping is deemed unacceptable, an estimate of the PMP is used
to generate the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) at the dam site. The translation of
PMP to PMF is akin to a conventional rainfall runoff routing technique, has become
the standard for the dam worldwide.
As mentioned earlier, rainfall runoff modelling approach has been the
convention as well as industrial standard in assessing the quantitative flooding

80
impacts of extreme storm events in a watershed/basin. The mathematical modelling
tools are also being frequently used to assess the magnitude of flood flows and stages
for a given probability of rain storm occurrence in a river basin or channel.
On further elaboration, they are also being routinely used to generate rainfall
induced runoff hydrograph for special hydraulic structure design such as dams and
outlet structures, etc.
The modelling approaches perform the task of translating and routing of
PMPs into PMFs of various rainstorm durations. Out of many hydrological rainfall
runoff techniques available worldwide and on occasion of those have been adopted
from time to time, two approaches or models are the most commonly used in
Malaysia. They are:
1. HP 11: Unit flood hydrograph type (Taylor and Toh, 1976)
2. RORB: Rainfall runoff model for basin scale (Laurensen and Mein,
1985)
Unit hydrograph UH approach similar to the technique espoused in HP 11
(1980) was also been used in the design study of some dams in the earlier 1960s
when computer modeling tools are basically not available at that time. A unit
hydrograph of specific duration was generated using an effective rain storm volume
of 1 cm. Unit hydrographs were also developed for other storm durations up to 48
hour as well. The last step of the derivation using HP 11 (Taylor and Toh, 1976)
technique was the convolution of the hydrograph.
The unit hydrograph for any duration could then be then used to convolute
the PMFs for given PMPs value of specific duration by assumption of superposition
of rainfall depth.

81
3.2

Hp 11 Hydrological Procedure (Taylor And Toh, 1976)

HP 11 (Taylor and Toh, 1976) was a modified Snyder type of synthetic unit
hydrograph approach that use for simple flood estimate procedure for a small
basin(maximum catchment area up to 518 km2) in Peninsular Malaysia. This is
therefore supposedly the upper limit of the catchment area draining the stream flow
station used in the calibration exercise.
The advantages of this unit hydrograph based model is that it can be used to
distribute runoff from storms of varying temporal pattern and also the fact that the
calibrating parameters required are kept to minimum but generally includes essential
topographic and geographic/geometric properties, such as the catchment slope,
catchment area, reach lengths, etc.
The performance of HP-11 (Taylor and Toh, 1976) was generally deemed
satisfactory and acceptable in PMP/PMF translation as adequate understandings of
the mechanisms of runoff generation mainly in Peninsular Malaysia. The output of a
HP 11 (Taylor and Toh, 1976) is the 10 mm-unit hydrographs for various storm
durations by the catchment geophysical characteristics, such as time of
concentration, general catchment slope etc. Subsequently hydrographs are derived
using convolutional approach.
This procedure is a variant of the time honored Clark Hydrograph technique
(Subramanya, 1994) where in the unit hydrograph derivation for catchments without
actual observed rainfall and runoff records are unfortunately unavailable. It is a
shortcoming in Malaysia as well as worldwide that the data sets that is used for
calibration is not readily available. Therefore recourses are then made to correlate
geographic properties that are readily measured from topography map to the
hydrograph. Compared to other much more sophisticated model, it does not seem to
make much difference in the hydrographical variables.

82
The steps for estimating the design flood hydrograph are as follows:
1. For a topographical map, compare the topography of the catchment
with similar catchments studied in the investigation and select the
appropriate hydrographical group. Compute L, Lc, A and S for the
catchment.
2. Calculate Lg for the catchment using equation below with n equal to
0.35, and C t values can obtained from appendix c table 1.
Lg = Ct x (LLc/ S1/2)n
3. Calculate the design storm for the catchment using D.I.D.
hydrological procedure No.1 (Heiler 1973). The design storm should
be calculated for a range of durations. Experience suggests that the
critical duration giving highest peak discharge is often similar to the
catchment lag time.
4. Calculate Q from equation below.
Q = 0.33P
Q = P2/(P +6)
5. Calculate qp from the following equation, if the total hydrograph is
required calculate T b and T p from the appropriate values can obtained
in appendix C table 2.
qp = (Dp x A x640 x Q) / (Lg + D/2)
6. Add the design base flow component of 5 cusecs per square mile.

83
3.3

Rorb Win Model Description

The following description of RORB WIN model is mainly for the completion of the
literature review. Due to time constraints and other restrictions arise during the
course of preparation of this report it is therefore not adopted in this study.
RORB (Laurenson and Mein, 1985) is an originally a DOS based
(subsequently WINDOW version; downloadable from Sinclair Knight Merz [SKM];
an international consulting engineering firm) computer or mathematical model that is
been routinely used to translate storm/rainfall excess through a network of
concentrated or lumped non linear storages. The storages are arranging in such a way
to represent the river topology and network schematically.
It is defined as an event based type of pseudo spatially varied rainfall runoff
model. Application of this rainfall runoff model involves division of the entire basin
or catchment into several sub catchments so that each one of them can be
representative of spatial difference such as hydrometrical, topographic and
geographical features. Most of the time, both spatial and temporal rainfall pattern can
be suitably taken account by division of catchment area or basin.
Gross storm rainfall depth is assumed to descend uniformly within the sub
catchment. Net rainfall or excess is generated by taking into account the infiltration
and other losses that might incur. Normally, two types of loss models are available.
The first type is the first time off or initial and continued reduction of a specific
quantum of rainfall depth being treated as loss tem within the sub catchment before
runoff is generated. This offers flexibility in modelling exercise. Figure 3.15 shows
the sampled subdivision of the catchment area at the dam site. The outlet represents
the location of the dam site.

84

Figure 3.22: Representation of sub catchment in RORB model


Source: www2.mainroads.wa.gov.au

The initial and continued loss model due to infiltration and/or other processes
is best suited for a homogeneous sub catchment of uniform vegetation and at the
same time, the infiltration rates and other loss rates in the hydrologic balance
equation could be confidently measured or estimated. The second type of loss model
is also based mostly on premise of land use characteristics of the sub catchment if the
rainfall runoff coefficient could be known or assumed a priori. It works reasonably
well if the runoff characteristic of the sub basin is confidently assessed and
quantified. The second type runoff coefficient based loss model can be used to
represent urbanized areas in terms of runoff generation and furthermore, on the
extreme end of the spectrum in the hydrological estimation and forecasting, such as
prediction of the most probable extreme runoff scenario.
Once the gross storm rainfall is acted on by the loss model to produce rainfall
excess, this in turn is converted or convolute into a direct runoff hydrograph.
Addition of the base flow hydrograph would therefore produce a complete runoff
hydrograph in response to the rain storm.

85
The hydrograph generated by an individual sub catchment is then routed
through a network of dendric river or channel nonlinearly. Storage is used to
represent the effect of overland and subsurface and channel reach routing. On any
branch the hydrograph from the first sub catchment is transferred or routed through
the first storage. The hydrograph from the second sub catchment is then added to it
and the process is then repeated.
At the confluence the hydrograph is stored until other hydrographs from the
other tributaries have been computed the same way. The hydrographs are then
combined and proceed to further downstream until reaching the outlet of interest or
entire basin or catchment. At this instance, the complete outflow hydrograph is
obtained by adding the predetermined base flow. Oftentimes, the base flow is only
representing a smaller percentage in terms of the extremely and relatively larger
flood flow.

So it can be mostly neglected in the construction of the inflow

hydrograph.
The modelling approach of RORB is based on the premise of water balance
within a sub catchment or a channel reach which can also conveniently represent the
entire homogeneous hydrological unit. The water balance is shown as follows:

Where:
S = storage
I = inflow
Q = outflow/discharge
Reach/sub catchment storages in the context of RORB modelling
representation are assumed to be governed by a storage-discharge (S and Q)
relationship or equation of the form.

86
S = 2500kQ m
S = storage
Q = outflow discharge
k , m = fitted parameters

The coefficients, k and m, are termed as calibrated catchment/watershed


parameters that will be derived from the results of the calibration process.
The coefficient k value is in fact a multiplicative value or product of two
other coefficients, kr and kc coefficients in the original RORB model. The overall k
value for a specific catchment is best obtained from the calibration exercise and it is
found to be intimately related to the time of travel or time of concentration for one
drop of rainfall to travel through the dendrical overland and channel network to the
outlet of interest.
A low value of k suggests faster and perhaps flashy response of the runoff
hydrograph. On the other hand, higher k is indicative of the opposite, where
attenuation of the hydrograph is prevailing.
The exponent m is a measure of basin hydrograph response in linearity. Unity
value of m represents the rainfall runoff mechanism of the catchment is linear.
Deviations and/or variations that are too far off from the unity value are rarely
observed throughout the experiences and literature since the inception of RORB. As
recommended by Laurensen and Mein (1985), the exponent m is often assumed 0.8.
A higher m value indicates the change of shape of both rising and receding limbs, i.e.
as graphically shown as fatness of the hydrograph.
Over the years experiences in Malaysia (NK/SMHB, 2000) shows that k
value can be related to an enveloping curve that correlates the PMF/flood discharge
(of 100-year return period) to the catchment or basin areas. For a smaller catchment
such as Semenyih dam, 57 km2, the RORB parameter, k is approximately 6.0,
considering shorter length of the tributary rivers to the dam site. Figure 3.16 shows a
regionalized k-catchment area relationship in NK/SMHB (2000) study.

87

1000

Peninsula
Malaysia
Sarawak
Malaysia

kc

100

10

1
10

100

1000

10000

100000

Area (km2)

Figure 3.23: Regionalized k-catchment area relationship


Source: NK/SHMB (2000)

Other studies such as in McNamara (1987) and JASA/SMHB (2003), k value


is correlated to the catchment area using a power equation as shown below.

88
McNamara (1987)
k =11.9 A 0.29
JASA/SMHB (2003)
k = 7.10 A 0.357
k = RORB calibrated parameter, ND
A = catchment area km 2

These two formulas estimated rather higher k value which in effect, would
provide a rather higher attenuation of flood generation. Besides, they are basically
calibrated using a much larger area river basin.
In most of the flood studies carried out in Malaysia, the exponential m value
remains a constant, i.e. 0.80. It is perhaps due to difficulty in obtaining observed
concurrent rainfall and runoff records that makes such calibration a tedious task.
Notwithstanding, m value is not affecting the fatness or peakiness of the peak
discharge of the hydrograph generated by RORB modelling.
On the other hand, a computerized RORB model has also been used in
Malaysia for flood related studies since its inception in the late 1980s. Experiences
accumulated using RORB by engineering designer communities are numerous in
Malaysia. This model is mainly mentioned in literature review in the segment of the
report. It is not adopted in this study as some of the information is not forthcoming
at the time of writing this report in this study.
It has been used recently in the design study of two proposed dams, i.e.
Telemong and Kelau dams in the state of Pahang (NK/SMHB, 2000). Other projects
where RORB modelling undertaking has been an extensive modelling component
and was part of the assignment are in Sg. Sarawak basin, RORB was used in
consecutive flood management studies in the earlier 1980s (McNamara, 1987) and
2000s (JASA/SMHB, 2003).

89
Results of various RORB modelling studies throughout Malaysia help in a
way to gain confidence in parameter estimations in a watershed. In this study, RORB
is selected for PMF estimation.

3.4

Comparison of PMFs

Comparison of estimated PMFs is normally made with other earlier studies within
the hydrometeorological homogeneous region. It is carried out by plotting
logarithmically the catchment area (x-axis) and maximum PMF (in y-axis).
In Malaysia, considering the smaller size of the river basin, a modified
Creager type of double logarithmic plot of catchment area versus PMFs is presented
in Figure 3.17 (also see Table 3.12).

Figure 3.24: PMF-Catchment Area Creager Curve: Malaysia Dam Inflows

90

Upper line denotes envelopment by eye fitting

Table 3.12: Creager Type Curve: Catchment Area Versus Peak PMPs/PMFs
For Various Dams in Malaysia

91
Dam
Ulu Ai
Ahning
Batang Ai
Liwagu
kenyir
Bakun
Pelagus
Murum
Kemubu
Lebir
Neggerri
Pergau
Tekai
Kelau
Telemong
Batu
Klang Gates
Langat
Puah
Tembat
Pedu
Muda
Durian Tunggal
Klang Gates
Semenyih
Pedas
Sungai Terip
Tengengor
Jus
Batu Hampar
Bengoh
Semenyih
Bengoh
Machap
Segamat
Upper Layang
Kahang
Kinta
Beris
Machap
Machap ACE report
Batu
Air Itam

Catchment area (km ) PMF (m /s)


355
5550
120
2580
1200
6122
2318
17400
2600
12700
14750
44800
21020
42500
2750
18800
5630
18125
2480
11600
3740
12500
89
2924
1230
7300
331
5660
360
5350
50
915
77
1610
41
1245
410
6690
101
3028
171
2650
984
6235
42
2265
77
1716
57
1215
6
1076
26
340
6553
13580
23
755
14
492
127
2420
57
1542
127
2197
77
1407
68
1465
31
735
62
1324
148
2398
116
1838
77
1349
77
724
50
879
5
708

Estimated PMF (m /s)


4034
2191
8008
11602
12377
32885
40143
12774
19121
12052
15188
1851
8121
3878
4066
1338
1706
1197
4375
1988
2674
7162
1213
1706
1441
406
926
20827
864
653
2262
1441
2262
1706
1591
1022
1510
2465
2149
1706
1706
1338
366

%
27
15
31
33
3
27
6
32
5
4
22
37
11
31
24
46
6
4
35
34
1
15
46
1
19
62
172
53
14
33
7
7
3
21
9
39
14
3
17
26
136
52
48

Reservoir Routing

Routing by definition in the hydrological term and setting, is a process used to


predict the temporal and spatial variations of a flood hydrograph as it moves through

92
a river reach or reservoir. The outputs/effects of storage and flow resistance within a
river reach and/or reservoir are reflected by changes in hydrograph shape and timing
as the flood wave moves from upstream to downstream of the river reach or
reservoir.
Figure 3.18 shows the major changes that occur to a discharge hydrograph as a flood
wave moves downstream.

Figure 3.25: Discharge Hydrograph Routing Effects

As a time varied flood wave approaches and passes through a reservoir, the
characteristics of unsteady flow wave become significant. An accounting procedure
of inflow and outflow rates and coupled with the water storage characteristics by
routing a flood hydrograph through the reservoir must therefore be strictly observed.
Several analytical and graphical methods route flood hydrographs through
reservoirs or other detention facilities. Nevertheless, all of the methods require
reliable descriptions of the following three items/inputs:

93

an inflow runoff hydrograph for the passage of the flood

the storage capacity versus water elevation of the reservoir

the performance characteristics of outlet facilities associated with the operation


of the facility
By definition, when both the inflow and outflow from a reservoir (or any type of

storage facility) are equal, a steady-state condition exists. If the inflow exceeds the
outflow, the additional discharge or flow is therefore stored in the system and raising
up the water level in the reservoir. Conversely, when the outflow exceeds the inflow,
water is taken from storage. All in all, this rhythm of adding and drawing waters
from the storage is reflected in the rise and fall of the water level above the crest
level of the dam structure.

4.1

Basic of Reservoir Routing Equation

Quantitatively, this statement of flow continuity can be written in the form of water
balance equation as follows. Qualitatively, it is the rate of change of storage volume
in a reservoir is the summation and quantification of all inflows from various sources
and appropriately deducting the amount of outflow via outlet structures, such as
spillways or bottom outlet of a reservoir/dam. It is assumed that other losses such as
seepage through the dam body are negligible.

Where :

94

Various routing methods are available for solving the storage discharge and
elevation of a flood routing problem routine in a reservoir. These methods are

Puls technique

Goodrich

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs), i.e. Runge Kutta 4th order

For the purpose of this study, only modified Puls technique is used for reservoir
routing exercise. Other names have been used for same technique in various
literatures, i.e. level pool technique, storage indication routing, etc.

4.2

Modified Puls Or Storage Indication Routing Method

Amongst many methods/techniques for routing floods through reservoirs, the


modified Puls method is perhaps a relatively simple and straightforward procedure

95
suitable for the assignment. Since the outflow discharge (Q) is a function of storage
alone, it is therefore convenient to rearrange the standard routing equation as follows
(Subramaya, 1994):

dS
= I Q
dt
Descretizing continuity equation
I1 + I 2 Q1 + Q2 S 2 S1

=
2
2
t
2S2
2S

+ Q2 = ( I1 + I 2 ) + 1 Q1
t
t

or
Q t I + I
Q t

S 2 + 2 = 1 2 t + S1 1
2 2
2

LHS = RHS
Q t

S +
VS Q graph
2

The right hand side quantity is the storage and discharge variables based on
current time step. It is the sum of the known variables from previous time step
carried over at the left hand side. Once the quantity is being known, prediction of the
discharges can therefore be made vie the prior relationship between storage indicator
curve accordingly. The storage indicator curve is described based on:
LHS = RHS
Qt

S +
VS Q graph
2

The initial values for terms in the right hand side are obtained from the
boundary or initial conditions which normally assume that the water level is at its full
supply level (FSL) prior to the onset of a PMP/PMF event. The solution of storage
indicator curve and outflow at the next time step needs another equation another
equation to describe the storage-discharge relationship.

96

Amongst the techniques available for reservoir routing, modified puls


reservoir routing is one of the simplest routing applications is the analysis of a flood
wave that passes through an unregulated reservoir. The inflow hydrograph is known
a priori, and it is desirable to estimate the outflow hydrograph from the reservoir.
Assumption for run is mostly at the conservative side, the reservoir storage is
considered full at its crest level prior to inflows by a PMP/PMF event, as previously
mentioned. This serves well as the initial condition for the reservoir routing routine.
To carry out the task of reservoir routing, a unique relationship between storage and
outflow has therefore to be developed a priori, as shown in Figure 3.19.

Figure 3.26: Reservoir Storage Routing Indicator


Source: Abstract from Engineering Hydrology Training Series Module 211 at
http://www.wsi.nrcs.usda.gov/products/w2q/H&H/docs/training_series_modules/rese
rvoir-flood-routing2.pdf
4.3

Spillway Configuration

97
Spillway and other outlet structures of a dam/reservoir define the outflow of the
PMP/PMF. Spillways are provided for both controlled and uncontrolled release of
flows from a dam/reservoir downstream such as rivers. They release floods so that
the water does not overtop the dam. They are safety valves that trigger releases of
torrential flows for which the reservoir could no longer hold. Except during flood
periods, water does not normally flow over a spillway.
In contrast, other intake structure, such as the bottom outlet which is
an intake that is used to release water on a regular basis for water supply,
hydroelectricity generation, environmental flow requirements, etc.
Sometimes, floodgates and fuse plugs may be designed into spillways to
regulate water flow and dam height. Other uses of the term spillway include
bypasses of dams or outlets of a channels used during high water, and outlet channels
carved through natural dams such as moraines.
TYPE OF SPILLWAY
The simplest form of the constructing a discharge stage curve is for ungated outflow
structures, in this case, spillways such as bellmouth, ogee type, etc.
All gated structures and spillway openings are open prior to the onset of a
PMP/PMF event. Unless the gates and other crest appurtenances such as piano key,
labrynth, fuseplug, etc are parts of dam raising effort to increase the usable/live
storage.

98

CHAPTER 4

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

The results of this study are presented in two (2) parts, namely, on the derivation of
PMP/PMF using an acceptable catchment routing procedure based on Snyder
synthetic hydrograph concept and on the results of reservoir routing and estimation
of flood rise using a simple approach attributed to Puls (Chow et al, 1988).

PMP/PMF Catchment Routing

The catchment routing adopted in this study is one of the simplest procedures based
on Snyder type of synthetic unit hydrograph approach. Firstly, the estimated 10 mm
unit hydrograph is derived for existing Langat dam catchment (CA= 41 km2) and
secondly, the rainfall induced outflow onto the lake surface area is also taken into
consideration. It is assumed that instantaneity of the PMPs of various durations
translates the rainfall into runoff and these are illustrated by a short duration sharp
peak discharge during the earlier hour of the PMP/PMF hydrographs with the
exception of long duration hour PMP/PMF such as 120-hour.

The PMP/PMF

hydrographs for 1- to 120-hour duration are shown in Figure 4.1.


A way to check if the estimated PMPs/PMFs are of reasonable value is to
check against results and findings of various previous undertakings in Malaysia. One
of these techniques is to plot the catchment area draining at the dam site versus the

99
peak PMP/PMF that is similar to a Creager type of curve. For a relatively smaller
catchment size, such as a Langat dam (CA=41 km2), the estimated PMP/PMF, of
about 1018 m3/s is within the same order of magnitude if compared to regressed
curve using various catchment area-peak PMP/PMF relationships. Comparison of
catchment area and peak PMP/PMF relationship is illustrated in Figure 4.2 (also see
Table 4.1).

Figure 4.27: PMP/PMF Catchment Routing: 1- to 120-hour

100

Figure 4.28: Creager Type Catchment Area-PMF Relationship

101
Table 4.13: Creager Type Curve: Catchment Area Versus Peak PMPs/PMFs
For Various Dams in Malaysia
c
Ulu Ai
Ahning
Batang Ai
Liwagu
kenyir
Bakun
Pelagus
Murum
Kemubu
Lebir
Neggerri
Pergau
Tekai
Kelau
Telemong
Batu
Klang Gates
Langat
Puah
Tembat
Pedu
Muda
Durian Tunggal
Klang Gates
Semenyih
Pedas
Sungai Terip
Tengengor
Jus
Batu Hampar
Bengoh
Semenyih
Bengoh
Machap
Segamat
Upper Layang
Kahang
Kinta
Beris
Machap
Machap ACE report
Batu
Tinggi
Langat 2012

Catchment area (km ) PMF (m /s)


355
5550
120
2580
1200
6122
2318
17400
2600
12700
14750
44800
21020
42500
2750
18800
5630
18125
2480
11600
3740
12500
89
2924
1230
7300
331
5660
360
5350
50
915
77
1610
41
1245
410
6690
101
3028
171
2650
984
6235
42
2265
77
1716
57
1215
6
1076
26
340
6553
13580
23
755
14
492
127
2420
57
1542
127
2197
77
1407
68
1465
31
735
62
1324
148
2398
116
1838
77
1349
77
724
50
879
40
1412
40
1080

Estimated PMF (m /s)


3907
2092
7879
11513
12300
33427
40993
12704
19194
11969
15165
1761
7992
3752
3938
1263
1620
1127
4245
1894
2565
7028
1143
1620
1362
372
867
20948
808
607
2161
1362
2161
1620
1508
959
1430
2360
2051
1620
1620
1263
1111
1111

%
30
19
29
34
3
25
4
32
6
3
21
40
9
34
26
38
1
9
37
37
3
13
50
6
12
65
155
54
7
23
11
12
2
15
3
30
8
2
12
20
124
44
21
3

102
2

Reservoir Routing

The primary purpose of reservoir routing is to determine the outflows of the


PMPs/PMPs as they pass through the reservoir. At the same time, the stage or flood
rise is also estimated from the outflow-stage rating relationship. It is desirable that
the maximum flood rise for various durations, i.e. from 1- to 120-hour is less than the
embankment crest level (ECL) of the dam, failing which, run into the risk of being
overtopped.
For Langat dam, the flood rises for all durations are marginally lower than the
ECL, +223.8 m msl. Therefore Langat dam is deemed safe from the onslaught of an
PMP/PMF event.
Table 4.2 shows the summary of the results of outflows and their
corresponding flood rises.
Table 4.14: Results of PMP/PMF Reservoir Routing: 1- to 120-hour Duration
Duration

Unit

Time

Base

hydrograph

to peak

Flow

Hour

Q
m /s /cm
1
53
3
36
6
25
12
15
24
8
48
4
72
3
120
2
FSL + 221.0 m msl
3

ECL + 223.8 m msl

tp Time tb
hour
hour
2
5
3
7
5
9
8
15
14
26
25
49
37
72
60
117

PMP
mm
211
338
440
584
777
1356
1593
2030

PMF
m3/s
1059
1080
947
723
504
415
369
254

Q
m /s
655
820
777
649
477
408
364
253
3

Flood rise
m msl
223.36
223.74
223.65
223.35
222.91
222.72
222.60
222.25

103

Figure 4.29: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: 1 hour duration

104

Figure 4.30: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: 3 hour duration

105

Figure 4.31: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: 6 hour duration

106

Figure 4.32: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: 12 hour duration

107

Figure 4.33: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: 24 hour duration

108

Figure 4.34: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: 48 hour duration

109

Figure 4.35: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: 72 hour duration

110

Figure 4.36: Langat Dam/Reservoir Routing: 120 hour duration

111

CHAPTER 5

CONCLUSION

Conclusion

A hydrological dam safety exercise is carried out with the objective to assess the
performance of the bellmouth spillway in light of an extreme meteorological event of
the PMP/PMF magnitude.
Langat dam (CA= 41 km2) is a small catchment water supply reservoir
scheme to supply raw waters to Langat Mile 10 Water Treatment Plant (WTP). This
study adopts inland type of PMPs as derived previously by SMHB (2012). A
catchment routing procedure is used to translate the PMPs to PMFs for 1- to 120hour duration. The results of the PMPs/PMFs are comparable to the Creager type
of catchment area-PMP relationship of various dams in Malaysia.
A conventional reservoir routing procedure by modified Puls technique is
then carried out for all PMP/PMF durations, i.e. 1- to 120-hour. In general, the flood
rises for all durations are marginally lower than the ECL, +223.8 m msl. It is
therefore concluded that Langat dam (CA= 41 km2) with its ample surcharge
capacity is safe from the onslaught of a PMP/PMF event. However, the provision of
wave run-up, normally an additional 1 m or so free board is no longer available.
Therefore it is recommended that a parapet wall of 1.0 m in height can be installed
along the dam crest on the water edge could be of help to mitigate simultaneous
PMP/PMF event with higher wave run-up.

112

REFERENCES

Atikah, (2009). Extreme Flood Event: A Case Study on Floods of 2006 and 2007 in
Johor, Malaysia. Technical Report. Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO,
USA.

Azmi J and Othman Z, (1989). Rational Method for Flood Estimation in Rural
Catchments in Peninsular Malaysia. (Revised and Updated), Hydrological Procedure
No. 5, Jabatan Pengairan dan Saliran, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Bureau of Meteorology (2003) The Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation


in Australia: Generalised Short-Duration Method, Bureau of Meteorology,
Melbourne, Australia, June 2003, (39pp).

Chow, V.T. (1951). A General Formula for Hydrologic. Frequency Analysis, Trans.
American Geophysical. Union, v. 32, no. 2, pp. 231-237.

Desa MN., A. B. Noriah, P. R. Rakhecha (2001) Probable maximum precipitation


for 24 h duration over southeast Asian monsoon regionSelangor, Malaysia.

Atmospheric Research, Volume 58, Issue 1, June 2001, Pages 41-54

113
Desa MN and PR Rekhecha, (2007) Probable maximum precipitation for 24-h
duration over an equatorial region: Part 2-Johor, Malaysia. Atmospheric Research
Volume 84, Issue 1, Pages 84-90

Fadhlillah Mohd b. Hj Mahmood, Salena, S, Leong, TM, and The SK (1982).


Estimation of the Design Rainstorm in Peninsular Malaysia (Revised and Updated),
Hydrological Procedure No.1, Jabatan Pengairan dan Saliran, Kuala Lumpur,
Malaysia.

Heng HH & CP Hii, (2010). Probable Maximum Precipitation Derivation in


Malaysia: Review and Comparison. International Journal of Hydro Climatic
Engineering, in press.

JASA/SMHB (2003), Sg. Sarawak Flood Mitigation Option Study, Final Report.
Department of Drainage and Irrigation, Sarawak.

Koutsoyiannis D, (1999) A probabilistic view of Hershfields method for estimating

probable maximum precipitation, Water Resources Research, 35(4), 1313-1322.

Laurenson EM and Mein,R (1985). RORB version 4 runoff routing programManual,


Monash University. Australia.

MASMA (2000). Urban Stormwater Management Manual for Malaysia. Jabatan


Pengairan dan Saliran, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

114
McNamara Cameron Consultants, (1987), Sungai Sarawak flood plain model study:
Report No. 86-1702 to Drainage and Irrigation Department., Government.of
Sarawak.

NAHRIM (2008).
Floods in Malaysia.

Derivation of Probable Maximum Precipitation for Design


Technical research publication (TRP) No. 1, Ministry of

Natural Resources and Environment, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

NK/SMHB. (2000). Nippon Koei in association with SMHB, 2000. PahangSelangor Raw Water Transfer Project Engineering Services and Detailed
Engineering Design: Hydrograph, Final Report. Malaysia, JBA, JKR.

Ong, (1987). Magnitude and Frequency of Floods in Peninsular Malaysia (Revised


and Updated) Hydrological Procedure No. 4, Jabatan Pengairan dan Saliran, Kuala
Lumpur, Malaysia.

SMHB (1992). Pahang Water Resources Study, EPU, Government of Malaysia


SMHB (1994). Johor Water Resources Study, EPU, Government of Malaysia.

SMHB/RB/JPZ (2000).

National Water Resources Study: 2000-2050, EPU,

Government of Malaysia.

SSP/HH (1980). Dams on Sungai Bekok and Sungai Sembrong, Feasibility Study.
Jabatan Pengairan dan Saliran, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

115
SSP/SMHB (1997). Kelantan River Flood Mitigation Project: Feasibility Study.
Jabatan Pengairan dan Saliran, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Subramanya K (1994). Engineering hydrology, 2nd edition, Tata- McGraw Hill


Publishing Company. Limited, New Delhi.

Taylor, M.A.W and Y.K.Toh (1976). Design Flood Hydrograph Estimation for
Rural Catchments in Peninsular Malaysia. Kuala Lumpur, Hydrological Procedure
No: 11. (HP 11) Jabatan Pengaliran dan Saliran, Ministry of Agriculture ,Malaysia.

116

APPENDICES

APPENDIX A: Adjustments for Hershfield PMP

(Attach the figure A1 to A5 in the following pages)

117

Figure A1: Km as a Function of Rainfall Duration and Mean Annual Series


(after Hershfield)

118

Figure A2: Adjustment Factor for Xn for to cater for Maximum Observed Rainfall

119

Figure A3: Adjustment factor for Sn to cater for Maximum Observed Rainfall

120

Figure A4: Factors to Adjust Xn and Sn Based on Length of Records

121

Figure A5: Adjustment of PMP based on number of readings


made over fixed interval records

122

APPENDIX B: Review of PMPs in Malaysia

(Attach the review B1 to B13 in the following pages)

123
B1

Langat Dam Design 1976

The design storm (note: it was not mentioned explicitly in the report that design
storm is PMP in present day terminology but for the purpose of reservoir design, one
would assume that PMP values were implied in the dam design practices in
Malaysia) adopted in the design of Langat dam was based on review of all the
maximum recorded rainfall of both short- and long-duration in both Singapore and
Malaysia.
Notably for short duration storm of less than 1 hour adopted was based entirely on an
earlier B&P study on envelopment of maximum recorded rainfall for Singapore and
East coastal region of Malaysia. The maximum 1-hour rainfall by envelopment was
190.5 mm (or 7.50 in). This subsequently is being adopted by SMHB/B&P in most
of their dam design undertaking latter years in Malaysia.
Due to steepness in topography of the Langat reservoir catchment (this was
translated into mainly the faster rising limb of the hydrograph) and relatively smaller
catchment area, the shorter duration PMP was deemed therefore far more important
that those of more than 24 hour.
Comparison between the available historical storm records of both east and west
coast indicated that the east coast were generally higher that those of the west coast.
The highest point 24-hour recorded rainfall was 754 mm and 263 mm at Kota Baru
JPS Store (in 1981, the highest point rainfall recorded was at the Pengkalan Chepa
airport, of about 981 mm) and Tanjung Karang JPS Store respectively. The design
report also included some important historical observed storm event experienced in
Malaysia. For brevity they are tabulated as below.
Maximum Recorded Rainfall Prior to 1976
Station
Rainfall (mm)
Mersing
Segamat
Tangkak
Sg. Sembrong
Mawai
Segamat
Labis
Pekan Nanas
Kuantan (east)
Mersing (east)
Subang Airport (west)
Ulu Langat Mile 22 (west)
Kepong
Serendah
( ) 120-hour

Remarks

287
7th January 1952
(B&P, 1959)
260
267
260 10th December 1969
B&P (1970)
437
318
468
257
327/ (868)
MMS
430 (679)
MMS
171 (293)
MMS
166 (333)
B&P (1971)
283
From USBR 1954
Study
268

124
Selection of the storm PMPs for spillway design was mainly accomplished by
comparing the design storms adopted in other studies such as design of Seletar,
Klang Gates, and the PMPs for dam projects in Batang Padang, Perak. In their
opinion, as the Langat reservoir was less exposed to the northeast monsoon than the
Seletar reservoir in Singapore and in additional, was at a higher elevation than the
Klang Gates catchment, therefore, after due consideration and deliberation, the
design storm of 432 mm was selected for 24-hour duration. On the other hand, for
short intensity design storm, 190.5 mm was adopted for 1-hour duration.

125
B2

Klang River Basin Flood Mitigation, Kinhill/Ranhill, 1994

PMP study for the design of three reservoirs/dams in the upper catchment of Sg.
Klang was carried out earlier in the 1960s by the dam designers, United States of
Bureau of Reclamation (USBR). Subsequently another study on comprehensive
flood mitigation program for Kuala Lumpur was commissioned a decade later. As
part of the flood mitigation strategy, review on PMPs was commenced systematically
for the existing Batu and Klang Gates dams.
The derived PMPs were then presented vis--vis other major dam design studies in
Malaysia. These two dams were a part of greater Kuala Lumpur flood prevention
project, and they were designed for storing excess flood waters before discharged
into Sg. Batu and Sg. Klang respectively. Subsequently over the years, they are also
being used and functioned as primary water supply reservoirs by providing sufficient
raw water sources to Sg Tua, Wangsa Maju and Bukit Nanas WTPs. The PMPs for
both dams were derived based on the maximization of the storm records of Air
Tawar School and Mersing during late 1970 to earlier 1971 as advocated by the
Binnie and Partner (latter, SMHB) group.
The rainfall records at that time were amongst the highest in the Peninsula. These
two stations recorded the highest observed rainfall for long durations, i.e. more than
1 day in Malaysia. Table Below shows the PMPs for both Batu and Klang Gates
dams and Inland PMPs for mostly long duration hour.
Comparison of PMP for Batu, Klang Gates, and Inland Dams
Duration
Batu Dam PMP
Klang Gates Dam PMP
(hour)
(mm) *
(mm)*

Inland Dam PMP


(mm)
ARF applicable
12
391
375
474
18
460
449
N/A
24
528
517
643
36
687
675
N/A
48
846
834
863
72
1164
1153
1067
* Data were originally obtained from USBR, 1984 and reproduced in the
Kinhill/RHB (1994) report
If assuming equal probability of occurrence of severe storm event could also be taken
place in the Sg. Semenyih basin and also at the same time considering that both dams
in Sg. Kelang basin were in close proximity and located in the same interior region
of Selangor, the PMP values estimated by USBR in the design of both Batu and
Klang Gates dams therefore can be transposed to other dam sites within the same
geographical regions as well. As shown in table above, PMPs estimated by USBR
was somewhat lower vis--vis SMHB/B&P inland PMP series especially for shorter
durations of say less than 24 hour. However they were compared reasonably well as
far as the long-duration PMP, 48- and 72-hour were concerned.

126
B3

Kelantan River Flood Study, SSP/SMHB, 1999

The derivation of PMPs was required for derivation of PMF for both Kemubu (on
Sg. Galas) and Lebir (on Sg. Lebir) dams on each major tributary in the upper
catchment of the southern Sg. Kelantan basin. Due to their relative larger sizes of
the dam catchment, logically only long-term duration PMP, i.e. more than or
equivalent to 1-day are of importance and was subsequently derived using hydrometeorological approach. By leaving the short duration PMP aside essentially
circumventing the problems encountered on the scarcity of pluviograph or automatic
recorder data on short-duration rainstorm in the whole Sg. Kelantan basin. The
primary data source for the PMP study was extracted from the JPS database in the
east coastal region of Peninsula, from Kelantan to the east coast of Johor.
Extensive search of the JPS extreme rainfall database was performed and it was
indicated that seven (7) major storms (Jan, 1967; Dec 1970, 1971, 1972, 1982, 1983,
and 1986) in the east coast regions i.e. the states of Kelantan and Terengganu were of
relevance. The maximization factors for various storms were estimated based on
precipitable water ratio of a reference extreme dew point temperature at 27 oC. The
12 hours persisting dew point temperature ranges from 22.0 oC to 24.6 oC.
Correspondingly, the maximization factors range from the lowest 1.23 (Dec 1972) to
the highest 1.55 (Dec 1970).
Explanations on the rationale of transposition factor were presented in the preceding
section 2.1 or in the reference, SSP/SMHB (1999). Comparison of mainly long
duration PMP is tabulated below. Columns 2 and 3 values are obtained after taking
into consideration the transposition factors, 0.70 and 0.85 for Kemubu and Lebir
dams sites respectively.
Comparison of PMP of Kemubu, Lebir, and Selangor Dams
Duration
Kemubu PMP (mm)
Lebir Dam PMP (mm)
(hour)
(1)
(2)
(3)
24
301
468
48
651
910
72
840
1190
96
980
1350
120
1100
1490
Col 2 and 3 values are obtained after taking into consideration the transposition
factors
The estimated PMPs for both dams were somewhat lower than the inland (and
coastal) PMP series of SMHB/B&P. This was perhaps due to the larger catchment in
the storm depth-catchment area relationship. The smaller the catchment area would
have higher exposure to the spatial distribution of the storm precipitation. This is
evidenced in the depth-area- duration curve shown in Figure 2 (DAD curve for
envelopment of east coastal storm)

127
B4

Putrajaya: Perang Besar Reservoir, Angkasa-GHD, 1998

The PMP used in the main dam design in the new administrative center of the
Government of Malaysia, Putra Jaya, was based on procedures outlined in the
Bulletin 53, 1994 of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM), Australia. This
procedure, as quoted ad verbum, is based on the Depth-Area-Duration (DAD)
method, which is used extensively in Australia and the United States. Its basic
assumption is that PMP is produced by large stationary thunderstorms positioned
over the catchment. The method was developed on the basis of data colleted
principally in the US, and assumed that the basis of data are similar throughout the
world, and thus it is implicitly in a way considered applicable in Malaysia.
The results of the short- and long-term duration PMP values adopted in the design of
Perang Besar dam and compare with the Inland PMP of SMHB/B&P are tabulated
below.
Comparison of Prang Besar PMP and Inland PMP
Duration
PMP (mm)
PMP (mm)
(hour)
Angkasa-GHD
SMHB Inland PMP
0.5
250
N/A
1
N/A
188
3
610
300
24
1100
692
72
1400
1067

%
Difference
N/A
N/A
+103%
+84%
+31%

Comparing with the PMP values adopted by SMHB in the design of Sg. Selangor
dam, it was obviously shown that the PMP values in Angkasa-GHD design were
consistently higher than the inland PMP series. The difference was considerably
prominent for the shorter duration PMP, i.e. for 3-hour and shorter duration by
interpolation to a certain extent.
In this regard, the Angkasa-GHD derived PMP was almost doubled that of
SMHB/B&P. However for longer durations, says for both 24- and 72-hours, the
difference somewhat reduced from more than 2 fold, i.e. +103% to +84% and +31%
respectively.
The vast difference in PMP magnitude estimated by ABM and SMHB/B&P is
subject of contention amongst the hydrological groups in Malaysia. This leads to the
question on the validity of adopting ABM in entirety (derived from adjusted storm
data of both USA and Australia) PMP estimation in Malaysia remains controversial
as obvious differences in meteorological condition is self-evident in the first place.
From the past studies, many arguments were presented with regard to the adoption of
ABMs PMP procedure in Peninsular Malaysia. Specifically, SMHB (1994) pointed
out that (it) is in their (SMEC/ABM) judgement and professional opinions, it is
valid to transpose generalized storm data from similar tropical regions of the United
States and northern Australia to Peninsular Malaysia. On the other hand, different
consultants/reviewers however held entirely different opinions and perceptions on
the derivation of the PMP. This is evidently shown in Table 1, for the same projects

128
and studies, the PMPs estimated by various consultants could vary tremendously
from one another.

129
B5
1999

Radar and Storm Model for PMP Estimation, Hardaker and Collier,

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the PMP in the tropics, an example quoted in
the paper was a subcatchment of Sg. Terengganu, Sg. Petong catchment (CA=120
km2), using meteorological parameterized storm model of Austin et al (as quoted in
the presentation, 1995) of UK Meteorological Office. In essence, most of the input
data are obtained from the Doppler weather radar.
Therefore, in a way that this proxy and indirect methodology offers an obvious
advantage vis--vis the conventional maximization and transposition methods that
requires bulk of measured rainfall records, primarily to construct a Depth-AreaDuration (DAD) curves for the largest storms ever recorded in the project area or at
its vicinity.
The preliminary results of the point PMP for 3-, 6-, 24-, 72-, and 120-hour duration
were estimated. The authors concluded that the estimated PMP using weather data
were of the same order of magnitude with the past studies (quoted from Mr. David
Mcdonald, Chief Hydrologist of Binnie and Partners of UK). The authors however in
their final remarks cautioned that the promising results obtained in their study were
of preliminary nature so the adoption of such methodology was still pending and
warranting a further in-depth investigation. For comparison purpose, the results are
compared with the SMHB PMP values as listed in the following table.
Comparison of PMPs of Hardaker & Colier and SMHB Coastal PMP
Duration
PMP (mm)
PMP (mm)
(hour)
Hardaker and Collier 1999
SMHB Coastal PMP
3
484
338
6
593
440
24
818
777
72
924
1593
120
1029
2030

%
Difference
+43%
+35%
+5%
-42%
-49%

The variation between these two methodologies is rather significant, ranging from
+43% to 49% of the PMP values adopted by SMHB. Specifically for long duration
PMP values, the difference is significant by almost half of SMHBs. The exception
was the 24-hour PMP that differed only by 5%. It should be noted that most of the
east coastal extreme rainfall only occurred during monsoon months of November to
Earlier January. This tropical storm surge, as it is preferably termed by the
meteorological experts, is the results of a regional cold front that is originated from
the northern hemisphere. This Siberian cold front reaches the equator sometimes at
the end of the calendar year.
The surge most likely lasts for several days. On the other hand, the storm cell model
calculated in this study is based on localized storm mechanisms and to somewhat
resemblance of a convective storm process. Therefore, it might be possible that this
is the reason for which lower PMP values were calculated for longer duration of
more than 24 hours.

130
B6

National Water Resources Study, SMHB/RHB/ZAABA, 2000

Hydrometeorological technique (maximization and transposition approaches) was


used to generate generalized isohyetal PMP maps of various durations (3-, 6-, 12-,
24-, 72-, 120-, and 168-hour) for Peninsula Malaysia. In this approach the maximum
rainfall recorded for various durations (mostly acquired from PKM database) are
maximized in situ using index of both prevailing dew point temperature during storm
and historical records of the maximum persistent dew point temperature.
Seven (7) isopleth maps for all durations mentioned above are then prepared
accordingly. Cautions are taken into account when generating the isopleth as a
differentiation should be made on the particular influence of Northeast Monsoon in
the east coast. For brevity, the following table presents the point PMP values for
all durations extracted directly from the isopleth maps at the Sg. Semeyih dam site.
Comparison with the SMHBs PMP (both Coastal and Inland) values is shown in
table below.
Comparison of PMPs of NWRS 2000-2050 and SMHB Coastal and Inland Series
Duration
PMP (mm)
PMP (mm)
PMP (mm)
%
(hour)
NWRS 2000SMHB Coastal
SMHB Inland
Difference
2050 Approx *
3
430
338
300 (261)
+65%
6
590
440
391 (352)
+68%
12
680
582
518 (474)
+43%
24
820
777
692 (643)
+28%
72
1300
1067 (1035)
+26%
120
1500
2030
1360 (1360)
+10%
168
1650
N/A
N/A
* choosing/interpolating to nearest contour as point value
( ) in col 3 indicates after applying the ARF
After reviewing the long duration rainfall records, the investigators concluded that
any storm coming from the northeast monsoon in the upper region of the east coast
of Peninsular Malaysia, i.e. Terengganu and Kelantan could also affect rainfall on the
west coast as evidenced in the 1971 storm, one of the worst storm event that affected
most part of Kuala Lumpur. The evidence of a storm closer to Johor Baru and
Kuantan in the southeast of the east coastal region can somehow affect the west coast
of the Peninsular Malaysia at the other side of the Banjaran Titiwangsa (main range)
was rather vividly clear. Figure 3 shows the isohyetal map of 24-hour PMP for
Peninsula Malaysia.

131
B7 Desa, Noriah, & Rakhecha. 2000, 2002, 2007
Humid Tropic Center (HTC) of JPS derived 24-hour PMPs for the State of Selangor
by making use of the relatively long-term rainfall records in the JPS TIDEDA
Database System. This study was essentially based on Hershfield technique using
some 32 rainfall stations of varying years of records ranging from 34 to 62 years of
long-term records to derive the 24-hour PMP for the state of Selangor. Subsequently
an isohyetal 24-hour PMP was prepared. This study opined that that the
recommended frequency factor (Km=15) by Hershfield (1965) was higher for
Malaysia condition (WMO, 1986). A review of such nature i.e. in search of a
common basis of the frequency factor is in line with the recommendation of WMO
332 (1986). Therefore an entirely new set of frequency factors was subsequently
derived using observed one-day highest rainfall of various station records and vital
statistics such as mean and standard deviation. The new Km values are ranging from
low 2.0 to as high as 8.4. Figure 4 shows the isohyetal map of 24-hour PMP in the
state of Selangor.
Three (3) point PMP values are of importance for comparison purpose due to their
proximities to the dam site and the upper Sg. Selangor basin. They are Ldg Escot
(3615001), Hospital Kuala Kubu Baru (3516023), and Ldg Batang Kali (3416025).
The calculated 24-hour PMP values are presented in the table below.
Comparison of PMP (SMHB and JPS/HTC)
Station Name
Station No.
24-hour PMP
using Km =
8.7 (mm)
(1)
(2)
(3)
Ldg Escot
3615001
378
Hospital KKB
3516023
367
Ldg Batang Kali 3416025
347

24-hour PMP
using Km =
15 (mm)
(4)
607
540
508

It is obviously indicated that the PMP value using Hershfield technique is some 50%
lower than the PMP series (if choosing Km equal 8.7) adopted by SMHB in the Sg.
Selangor dam design, i.e. 24-hour inland PMP of 692 mm. However if strictly
following the recommendation outlined in the WMO 332 (1973; 1986) manual on
the Km factor and no adjustment made to the mean and standard deviation of the
maximum storm annual series, the results presented in column 4 of the table above
are consistent and comparable to the SMHB PMP value vis--vis those of using a
lower Km value.
The statistical approach for any dam design assignments is always subjected to
controversies, uncertainties and criticisms under the pretext that PMPs derived in this
way is only representative of a point PMP value. Furthermore the length of records
that is used to derive the statistic oftentimes is rather short to be statistically
meaningful (Hersfield suggested a minimum of 20-year records by Hershield, as
quoted in WMO [1986]). As a result, some significant rainfall event might be missed
out entirely due to non-recording or error in instrumentation.
In addition, another important point that is subjected to further argument is the
conversion from point PMP to areal PMP, which is usually accomplished by

132
applying a reduction coefficient (Areal Reduction Factors; ARFs) based on both the
size of the catchment and the chosen duration. For longer durations and smaller
catchment areas, the reduction factor is approaching unity. The ARF curves are
mainly derived by U.S. National Weather Services (NWS) and presumably using
mostly storm information in the continental USA.
Thus the validity and subsequently suitability of such ARF factors application in
Malaysia is again doubtful. Although there was a study undertaken by the JPS in the
mid 1980s, however the results were inconclusive as the ARFs derived in this
study were based on very short records and therefore should be used with caution
(Ong and Liam, 1986). Furthermore, the author also explained the fact that the ARF
is considered rather low for tropical climatic condition such as in Malaysia where the
storms are mostly of Blitz type thunderstorm and short duration nature. This
probably explained low ARF factors vis--vis the US National Weather Services
(NWSs).
Subsequent work was also carried out for the state of Johor in the southern tip of the
Peninsula using the same methodology. Figure 5 shows the isohytal map for 24-hour
PMP storm distribution through out the state of Johor, which comprises of several
major river basins, such Sg. Johor, Sg. Muar, and Sg. Batu Pahat.

133
B8

Interstate Raw Water Transfer, Nippon-Koei/SMHB 2000

This study was an independent review and appraisal on the substantial bulk of works
that had been carried out previously in the Kelantan Flood Mitigation Study
(SSP/SMHB, 1999) on the adoption of PMP values for preliminary Kemudu and
Lebir dam design.
The purpose of this segment of the overall feasibility study for interstate water
transfer from Pahang to Selangor was to adopt PMP values in the design of both
Kelau (CA=331 km2) and Telemong (CA=360 km2) dams in the interior region of
Pahang. A good practice of verification of the past studies was normally carried out
during the course of the deriving appropriate PMP values for the purpose of dam
design. Selection of the storm event records in the east coast was logical as most of
the severe storm events in Malaysia occurred in the east coastal region (Kelantan,
Terengganu, Pahang, and Northeastern Johor) during northeast monsoon starting
from November till the middle February.
Eight major storms mostly in the east coast regions of Kelantan and Terengganu
during Northeast monsoon were identified for the preparation of Depth-AreaDuration curves (DAD). These were the most severe storm events occurred
throughout the instrumental sampling/recording period from as earlier as in the
1950s. As previously mentioned, selection of storm data for PMP derivation was
due to the fact that most of the severe storms in Peninsular Malaysia were taking
place in the east coast region during prevailing northeastern monsoon. Each
individual DAD curve was prepared using about 20 to 30 station records in the
vicinity of the storm epicenters. Both auto and manual recorded rainfall values were
utilized though in general, the auto-record data is scarce in the regions
notwithstanding with only relatively short period of records.
Long-duration PMP i.e.24- to 48 hour was then derived after appropriate adjustment
for unrestricted values. The PMP values were then enveloped, maximized and
transposed to the inland dam sites that are closer to each other. Similarly, short-term
PMP for less than 24-hour was also derived albeit using different approach for reason
explained earlier on the scarcity of auto-recording rainfall stations in the east coast
region as a whole. Therefore it was not being able to develop the DAD curves for
shorter duration from the amount of data available.
In such case, recourses are then made to adopt the short duration PMP derivation
based on procedure developed by Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM, 1985).
This technique is in turn, a procedure based on the method of adjusted United States
data as explained in earlier subsection. Studies on the maximum enveloping values
between these two continents (although of relatively different climatological
characteristics nevertheless lend support on the adoption of the vast USA database in
Australia continent, ABM, 1985).
It was concluded that pattern and nature of occurrence of short duration storm are the
same between these two continents of almost the same longitude. Based on this
similar argument, the short duration PMP methodology developed by joint US and
Australian meteorologists could be also used elsewhere in the Southeast Asia region.

134
Essentially it assumes that the extreme rainfalls for short durations and small area
will be produced by large, efficient, and virtually stationary thunderstorms or from
part of a meso-scale or synoptic-scale storm system with embedded cumulus cells
(as quoted ad verbatim from NK/SMHB, 2000; cf WMO, 1986).
As a check on the PMP values derived from the hydro-meteorological approach, the
estimated PMP values using Hearshfield technique were at least in the same order of
magnitude. Nine (9) rainfall stations in the vicinity the project site were used. The
results of 24-hour point PMP are comparable, ranging from 410 mm to highest 637
mm. These are compared with the areal PMP at both dam sites, i.e. 625 mm and 615
mm for Kelau and Telemong dam sites respectively.
Table below shows the comparison of PMPs derived in the Interstate Water Transfer
vis-a-vis SSP3 projects, the latter is representative of the Sg. Semenyih basin as both
basins are in the state of Selangor and are exposed to the similar meteorological and
climatic factors. .
Comparison of PMP Derived from Interstate Water Transfer Project vis--vis SSP3
Duration Kelau dam
Telemong
Inland PMP
ARF
Adjusted
(hour)
CA=331
dam
Selangor
km2
CA=360
Dam
2
km
1
270
260
188
0.75
141
2
310
300
N/A
0.87
N/A
3
370
350
300
0.90
261
6
480
460
391
0.92
352
12
530
520
518
0.93
474
24
625
615
692
0.95
643
48
905
895
908
0.97
863
72
1050
1040
1067
N/A
1035
120
N/A
N/A
1360
N/A
1360
N/A not available for duration more than 72-hour; * inland PMP
If conservatively assuming that the PMP values for both Kelau and Telemong dams
can
be transposed in toto to the Selangor dam site without further adjustment, the PMP
values for all durations except for shorter duration, are closely comparable. However
it should be borne in mind that, this is nevertheless a conservative approach by
assuming that both maximization and transposition factors are the same for the dam
catchments at both sides of the Banjaran Titiwangsa (main range of the Peninsular
Malaysia).
This in essence implies an equal opportunity or probability of extreme storm occurrence
in both the east and west coasts notwithstanding the nature of storm. Dominant storm in

135
the west coast region is often of the convective nature, which is typified by very intense
and heavy precipitation that last for a short duration, i.e. 2 to 6 hours and oftentimes
occurs during the two intermonsoon periods (from April to May and October to
November). While in the east coast region of Peninsular Malaysia and the coastal region
of Sabah and Sarawak, the monsoon storms during November to January are prevalent
and predominant and they are widespread as well as could last for a longer period, from
several days to a week. However it does not preclude the occasional occurrence of such
long duration storm or surge as preferably termed in the meteorological communities in
the west coast. .
Anecdotal observation of the historical concurrent extreme storm events in both east and
west coasts of the Peninsula Malaysia seemed to prove otherwise (as evidenced by less
devastating flood consequences and lesser rainfall). With the exception of well
documented 1971 storm event in the west coast, hardly any significant storms of the same
order of magnitude on a par with 1971 in latter years occurred in the west coast. The
consensus amount the hydrologists within the SMHB/B&P groups on the transposition of
east coast storm to the sheltered inland or west coast (by crossing the Banjaran
Titiwangsa) without appropriate transposition factors are considered as unduly
conservative (SMHB, 1992). To quote an example, the transposition methods used in
the Kelantan Flood Mitigation Feasibility Study (SSP/SMHB, 1999) were based on ratios
of 1-, 5-day total rainfall.

136
B9

Short Duration Rainfalls in Selangor, Desa and Rakhecha 2002

This recent study undertaken by Humid Tropic Center HTC was an extended study
on earlier 24-hour PMP derivation in Selangor and mainly focuses on the short
duration extreme rainfall. The purpose of this study was to provide pertinent
information on the characteristics of short duration rainfalls for the design of small
and moderately sized hydraulic structures in the urban areas. This implied that the
study was more of concern of low probability occurrence of extreme rainfall, such as
in the range of return periods from 2- to 100-year.
This study in essence, was a collation and documentation of the highest auto
recorded rainfall event for short duration in Selangor without further analysis to
derive PMPs. Therefore, at this preliminary stage, it did not take into consideration
of converting these observed rainfall records to PMPs by conventional maximization
technique using meteorological parameters.
Short duration of auto-recording rainfall data from 1971 to 1999) of 13 recording
rainfall stations in the state of Selangor are compiled in the respectively tables. The
severity of the extreme rainfall event was quantified as percent chance of occurrence
(or represented by return period in standard and conventional hydrological practices).
In the records, the stations in the state of Selangor received heavy falls of rain of the
order of 42 to 106 mm in 0.25 hour, 60-183 mm in 0.50 hour, 73 to 365 mm in 1
hour, 114 to 522 mm in 6 hour, and 132 to 523 mm in a 12-hour duration. In terms
of duration, the maximum rainfall converged to about 6 hour, which is evidently
represented by some 90% of the rainfall in the previous time periods. In the opinion
of the authors, the prevailing extreme rainfall events were mostly of short duration
nature.
In addition, it was also revealed that a majority of top 20 highest storm events were
mainly occurred during the inter monsoon season from April to May and October to
November. Table below summarizes the highest recorded rainfall for different
durations.
Highest Records Extreme Rainfalls for Various Durations in Selangor
No Name of the rainfall station
Duration (hour)
161
Pejabat Pos Manggis
42
60
73
119
2
Ibu Bekalan Enam Kaki
96
96
96
114
3
Pintu Kawalan P/S Teluk Gong 91
183
365
522
(1)
4
Setor JPS Kajang
54
71
89
165
5
Puchong Drop (2)
55
61
91
126
6
Pusat Penyelidikan JPS Ampang 54
68
96
125
7
Sek Keb Kg Lui (4)
99
99
142
197
8
Rumah Pam JPS Paya Setia
64
68
112
163
9
Setor JPS Tanjung Karang (5)
74
74
87
174
10 Kg Kalong Tengah (3)
68
68
76
226
11 Loji Air Kuala Kubu Baru
106
106
106
154
12 Ibu Bekalan Sg. Bernam
62
85
104
147

12154
169
523
171
316
136
197
169
175
227
154
165

137
13 Rumah Pam JPS Bagan Terap
101
102
102
132
132
Excerpt from Desa and Rakhecha (2002); ( ): ranking in terms of highest rainfall
When comparing the highest rainfall records vis--vis adopted PMP value at
Selangor dam, it should be in mind highest recorded point rainfalls in table above do
not take into account of conventional PMP derivation technique of storm
maximization (irrelevant for transposition in the context). The implication of these
findings was far reaching in such a way that a reassessment of the short duration
PMP rainfall in Selangor was most likely warranted.
From table above, it could be seen clearly that the first, second, and fifth highest
recorded rainfalls for 12-hour duration were located some distances from upland
catchment except for Sek Men Kg. Lui and Kg. Kalong Tengah station. Comparison
of these observed upland basin highest rainfall records vis--vis the Selangor PMP is
imperative to ensure that the PMP convention of SMHB/B&P is indeed adequate.
Table below summarizes highest records of rainfall stations in the upper catchment
in Selangor. Setor JPS Kajang and Sek Keb Kg. Lui are located in the Sg. Langat
basin, while the other two, Kg Kalong Tengah and Loji Air Kuala Kubu Baru
stations are within the upper Sg. Selangor catchment downstream of the Selangor
dam.
Comparison of Selangor Dam PMP and Higher Rainfall Records in Upper
Catchment
Duration
Setor JPS Sek Keb Kg
Kg Kalong
Loji Air Selangor Dam
(hour)
Kajang
Lui
Tengah Kuala Kubu CA=197 km2
Baru

54
99
68
106

71
99
68
106
1
89
142
76
106
188
2
N/A
3
300
6
165
197
226
154
391
12
171
197
227
154
518
The comparison in table above apparently is not in anyway unreasonable and
indicative of underestimation of the Selangor PMP by SMHB. If the observed
highest values are maximized by some coefficients, say, 50% higher due to moisture
saturation in the upper planetary boundary (by measuring the maximum persistent
dew point temperature and storm dew point temperature) do not exceed the PMP
values except 1-hour duration rainfall of Sekolah Kebangsaan. Kg. Lui station.
Figure 4 shows the 1-day PMP for the state of Selangor.
Only the highest rainfalls recorded for almost all durations in the downstream and
near the coastal region, such as Puchong Drop and Tanjung Karang, are exceeding
the Selangor PMP. It is not known at present the reasons of such highest PMP values
due to limitation on the knowledge in the area of expertise of meteorology.
However, this is not in anyway to ignore such highest records in the lower catchment
where no major water detention structures are most likely to be located especially in
the state of Selangor.

138
Nevertheless, counterchecking with neighboring stations is imperative to ascertain if
these values are not isolated event in the vicinity.

139
B10

Kelinchi Dam, SSP/MM 2001

The PMP derivation was part of the Kelinchi dam design study by SSP/MM (2001).
The Kelinchi reservoir is located within the upper catchment of Upper Muar
reservoir that serves as additional storage for raw water sources for Terip WTP in
Seremban. The major purpose of the reservoir is to facilitate water transfer across the
mountain range (via tunnel) to the Sg. Terip WTP. Besides, it is also served as extra
holding for raw water via pumping from upper Muar resrervoir downstream. PMP
was used to derive the PMF for spillway design. Table below is extracted from the
design report on PMP derived based on Hershfield technique.
Comparison of PMP
Upper Muar Dam
Duration (hour)
3.5
6.5
12.5
24.5

PMP (mm) Kelinchi Dam


Duration (hour)
315
400
525
689

3
6
12
24
120

PMP (mm)
337
394
521
692
1800

Excerpt from SSP/MM 2001


SSP dam review (2003) reported a 24-hour PMP value of 700 mm was used in the
reservoir routing exercise. Nevertheless the figure is agreeable to the Semenyih PMP.
In line with the recommendation by Hershfield on the derivation of Km factor,
SSP/MM (2001) slightly modified the Km values in their computations. This is
accomplished mostly by the reduction of Km with increased annual maximum
rainfall in the 2600 stations that were used in the original derivation of the Hershfield
equation. The Km factor is lower for short duration, i.e. 13 is adopted for 3- and 6hour duration respectively.
It is however, a blanket adoption/envelopment of such adjustment might not be
warranted in the humid tropic region, such as in Malaysia. This is due to the fact
almost 90% of the data selected by Hershfield in the derivation of statistically based
equation were from temperate climate such as USA. As such, if no reduction is made
on the Km factors, the calculated PMP could be even higher than those tabulated
above (see column 4). While taking into the conservative assumption into
consideration, the recommended Km factor of 15 was used without any justification
of downward adjustment.

140
B11

Gelami Dam Design JPS, 2002

The proposed Gelemi reservoir/dam is a rather small scheme water supply for the
aquaculture research station in the upper Sg teriang basin in Negeri Sembilan. The
proposed dam site is located on Sg. Gelami, one of the tributaries of Sg. Teriang
basin. The hydrology division of the JPS had carried out the detailed PMP study as
part of the assignment for engineering spillway design. The methodology adopted in
this study was of similar statistical approach of Hershfield (1965) with some
modification to the derivation of the frequency factor, Km. The modification was
based on a research technique published in Water Resources Research
(Koutsoyannis, 1999). Other than Km modification, the estimation by JPS also made
appropriate conventional adjustments for mean and standard deviation of the
maximum rainfall annual series for individual duration. For information, the Km
factor for most of the standard derivation as per recoomendation of WMO was 15
world wide as this was the highest enveloped value in the original Hershfield
analysis (WMO, 1986).
The modification by Koutsoyannis, (1999) was to recalculate the Km factors for
various durations based on robust statistical technique, L Moment. As a result, the
estimated Km factors for various durations were as low as 10.4 for 0.25-hour
duration to as high as 17 for longer duration, i.e. 120 hour. For comparison, for a 24hour duration PMP, Km is adjusted slightly upward to about 16 vis--vis 15, that is
normally in statistically based PMP studies.
Due to its close proximity to Sg. Semenyih basin, i.e. neighboring basin, comparison
of PMP vis--vis those adopted in the Semenyih dam design is considered
reasonable. The PMP for selected durations are summarized in table below.
Comparison of PMPs of JPS (2002) and SMHB Inland Series
Duration
Modified Km
PMP PMP (mm) % Difference
(hour)
factor
(mm)
SMHB
(JPS, 2002)
JPS
Inland
(2002)
((1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
3
12.394
315
300 (261)
6
13.645
356
391 (352)
12
14.958
460
518 (474)
24
15.947
598
692 (643)
72
16.679
774 1067 (1035)
120
16.974
941 1360 (1360)
( ) in col 3 indicates after applying the ARF

(5)
5.00%
-8.95%
-11.20%
-13.58%
-27.46%
-30.81%

PMP (mm)
without Xn
and Sn
adjustment
JPS (2002)
(6)
412
461
540
664
1069
1312

With the exception of 3-hour duration PMP, the estimated PMPs by JPS using
modified version of Hersfield methodology were mostly lower than SMHB, they
were varied from as low as 9% to as high as 30%. As mentioned above, the designer
adopted adjusted mean and standard deviation in the calculation. This adjustment
essentially lowered both the mean and standard deviation of the maximum rainfall
annual series for reason of shorter length of records vis--vis recommendation in
WMO 332 (1986).

141
If assuming that no adjustments were to be made, the estimated PMP for each
duration would then be slightly higher than before. For such purpose, the
recalculated PMP values without adjustments were shown in column 6 in the same
table as shown above.

142
B12

Kelinchi Dam Feasibility Study, SSP/SMEC, 1990

In this report, short duration PMPs were calculated at each potential dam site using
the Australia Bureau of Meteorology (ABM; Bulletin 53) generalized approach for
tropical region. As previously compared with other studies in Malaysia, in general
the ABM estimates were always higher than PMPs vis--vis using other techniques
that are being practiced in Malaysia.
The estimated PMPs were also adjusted by the elevation/moisture inflow barrier and
dew point/maximum atmospheric moisture factors. The adjustment procedures could
be further referred in the BOM bulletin 53 for short duration PMP estimation (recent
amendment of PMP was made in 1996 and issued as Bulletin 53). The estimated
PMPs by BOM were tabulated in the following table for comparison with the
Selangor PMPs (also applicable to Sg. Semenyih basin) for similar duration periods.
Short Duration PMP for Various Dam Sites in Negeri Sembilan
Duration
Kelinchi
Sikamat
Teriang
Gelami
(Hour)
dam
dam
dam
dam 1
(mm)
(mm)
(mm)
(mm)
1
349
352
342
342
2
627
634
611
611
3
836
848
816
816
Calculation based on ABM short duration methodology

Gelami Selangor
dam 2
(mm)
(mm)
352
188
634
N/A
848
300

143
B13

Jemelan Reservoir, Jurutera Perunding Zaaba (JPZ), 1998

The project comprises a small reservoir/dam development and its appurtenances on


Sg. Jemelan, Jerebu, Negri Sembilan. The small reservoir selected drains only about
7.2 km2 of Teriang Forested Reserve. For a smaller catchment, the PMP estimates of
interest to the derivation of PMF were of shorter duration, i.e. less than 1-day, for
example. This was primarily due to the fact that the flood peak rise in a shorter time
due to its relatively smaller catchment size and shorter time of concentration
The PMP was estimated using statistical approach, presummedly Hershfields
statistically methodology. Table below shows the PMPs calculated up to 24 hour and
the percentage distribution to the shorter durations.

PMP in Jelebu Negeri Sembilan


Rainfall duration
(hour)
3
6
12
1-day
Excerpted from JPZ (1998)

Relationship of PMP
PMP (%)
(mm)
67%
83%
94%
100%

322
399
452
481

Slightly lower PMPs were estimated for 12-hour and 1-day durations vis-vis the inland PMP series that was representative of the Semenyih basin. However
for shorter durations such as 3 to 6 hours, the differences between both studies were
basically marginal and on the same order of magnitude.
The significance of this review was that the proposed Jemelan reservoir site is
in close proximity (located in the southward direction) to the existing Semenyih
dam/reservoir site. The adopted PMPs for proposed Jemelan reservoir/dam could
therefore provide excellent insight/comparison on diversity of opinion on the PMP
derivation for engineering end eavors in Malaysia.

144

APPENDIX C: coefficient for HP11

(Attach the table C1 to C3 in the following pages)

145

Table C1

Table C2

146

Table C3

147