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Making Connections: Mathematical Modelling With Exponential and Logarithmic Equations

Countless freshwater lakes, lush forests, and breathtaking landscapes make northern Ontario a popular summer vacation destination. Every year, millions of Ontarians go there to enjoy summer life in the peaceful setting of a cottage, a campground, or a small town. Suppose you live and work in northern Ontario as an urban planner. As towns grow, you will need to pose and solve a variety of problems such as the following. • How much commercial development should be encouraged or permitted? • When and where should a highway off-ramp be built? • Which natural landscapes should be left undisturbed? These and other related problems may require applying and solving exponential and logarithmic equations. Careful planning and development can ensure that the natural beauty of our northern landscape is preserved, while meeting the needs of a growing population. Take a journey now to Decimal Point, a fictional town located somewhere in northern Ontario. You have been assigned to perform some urban planning for this friendly community.

7.5 Making Connections: Mathematical Modelling With Exponential and Logarithmic Equations • MHR 393

Example 1

Select and Apply a Mathematical Model

The population of Decimal Point has been steadily growing for several decades. The table gives the population at 5-year intervals, beginning in 1920, the year the town’s population reached 1000.
Time (years) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Population 1000 1100 1180 1250 1380 1500 1600

a) Create a scatter plot to illustrate this growth trend. b) Construct a quadratic model to fit the data. c) Construct an exponential model to fit the data. d) Which model is better, and why? e) Suppose that it is decided that a recreation centre should be built once the town’s population reaches 5000. When should the recreation centre be built?

Solution
Method 1: Use a Graphing Calculator
a) Clear all equations and Stat Plots from the calculator. Enter the data in lists L1 and L2 using the list editor.

Turn Plot1 on. From the Zoom menu, choose 9:ZoomStat to display the scatter plot.

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b) Use quadratic regression to determine a quadratic equation of best fit, and store it as a function, Y1, by following these steps: • Press o. • Choose CALC, and then select 5:QuadReg. • Press O 1 for [L1], followed by G. • Press O 2 for [L2], followed by G. • Press s. Cursor over to Y-VARS. Select 1:Function and press e.

CONNECTIONS Your calculator may display a value for r 2, which is called the coefficient of determination. It indicates how close the data points lie to the curve of the model. The closer r 2 is to 1, the better the fit. You will learn more about the coefficient of determination if you study data management. Technology Tip
2

s

The equation of the curve of best fit is approximately y 0.15x2 15.4x 1006, where y is the population after x years. c) To determine an exponential equation of best fit, follow the same steps as above, except choose 0:ExpReg instead of 5:QuadReg. Store the exponential equation of best fit in Y2.

If r does not automatically appear: • Press O 0 for [CATALOG]. • Press a v to quickly scroll to the items beginning with the letter D. • Choose Diagnostics On. • Press e twice. You may need to repeat the regression step to see r 2. This can be done quickly by using O e for [ENTRY] until the regression command appears, and then pressing e.

The equation of the exponential curve of best fit is approximately P 1006(1.016)t, where P is the population after t years. d) Note that both regression analyses yield equations with very high values of r 2, suggesting that both models fit the given data well. To examine the scatter plot and both model graphs, press x to open the graph editor. Then, ensure that Plot1, Y1, and Y2 are all highlighted. For clarity, the line style of one of the functions can be altered (e.g., made thick).

CONNECTIONS The value of r showing on the screen represents the correlation coefficient, which measures the strength and direction of the relationship between x and y.

Press f to see how well the two curves fit the given data.

7.5 Making Connections: Mathematical Modelling With Exponential and Logarithmic Equations • MHR 395

It appears that either model fits the data equally well, since the functions are virtually indistinguishable. Are these models equally valid? Zoom out to see how the models extrapolate beyond the given data. Zoom out once:

The models appear to diverge here.

Technology Tip

s

When you press r, the cursor will trace the points of the scatter plot, the function Y1, or the function Y2. You can toggle between these by using the up and down cursor keys. Use the left and right cursor keys to trace along a function graph or set of points.

What meaning does the part of the graph to the left of the origin have? Do you think this a valid part of the domain for this problem? Zoom out again, and then use the ZoomBox operation to explore this region. Use the TRACE operation to track the coordinates of each model.

An anomaly occurs when extrapolating the quadratic model back in time. This model suggests that the population of the town was actually once larger than it was in year zero, and then decreased and increased again. This contradicts the given information in the problem, which states that the town’s population had been growing for several decades. The exponential model gives a more reasonable description of the population trend before year zero due to its nature of continuous growth. Therefore, the exponential model is better for describing this trend.

Method 2: Use Fathom

®

a) Open a new collection and enter the data into a Case Table.

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Create a scatter plot of Year versus Population. Technology Tip s To create this New Graph: • Click and drag the graph icon from the menu at the top. • Click and drag the Year attribute onto the horizontal axis. • Click and drag the Population attribute onto the vertical axis.

b) Create a dynamic quadratic model by following these steps: • Click and drag three sliders from the menu at the top. Label them a, b, and c. • Click on the graph. From the Graph menu, choose Plot Function. • Enter the function a*Year^2 b*Year c and click on OK. Adjust the sliders until a curve of best fit is obtained. Hint: What should the approximate value of c be (think about when x 0)? Technology Tip s

You can adjust the scales of the sliders by placing the cursor in various locations and then clicking and dragging. Experiment with this, noting the various hand positions that appear and what they allow you to do.

The quadratic curve of best fit is given approximately by P 0.15t2 15.5t 1006, where P is the population after t years.

7.5 Making Connections: Mathematical Modelling With Exponential and Logarithmic Equations • MHR 397

c) An exponential equation can be written in terms of any base. Therefore, it is possible to determine an equation to model the population, P, of this town as a function of time, t, in years, in terms of its initial population, 1000, and its doubling period, d:
t _

P

1000

2d

Create a dynamic exponential model with a single slider, d. Adjust d until the curve of best fit is obtained.

The doubling period is approximately 43.5 years. The exponential equation of the curve of best fit is approximately P 1000 2 43.5 .
t _

d) Note that both models fit the data well. To see how well they perform for extrapolation, adjust the axes of each graph.

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e) Use either exponential algebraic model to determine when the recreation centre should be built for Decimal Point by solving for t when P 5000. P 5000 5000 _ 1006 5000 _ log 1006 5000 log _ 1006 __ log 1.016 1006(1.016)t 1006(1.16)t 1.016t log(1.016)t Apply the power law of logarithms and divide both sides by log 1.016. Use a calculator to evaluate. Divide both sides by 1006. P 5000 5 log 5 log 5 1000 1000 2 43.5
t _ t _

2 43.5

t _ t _

2 43.5 Divide both sides by 1000. Take the common logarithm of both sides. Apply the power law of logarithms. Multiply both sides by 43.5 and divide both sides by log 2. Use a calculator to evaluate.

( (

) )
t

log (2 43.5 ) t (_) log 2 43.5 t 101

t 101

log 5 43.5 _ log 2

( )
t

Both models indicate that the recreation centre should be built approximately 101 years after the population of Decimal Point reached 1000. Because the population reached 1000 in 1920, the recreation centre should be built in the year 2021.

7.5 Making Connections: Mathematical Modelling With Exponential and Logarithmic Equations • MHR 399

Example 1 illustrates the important distinction between curve-fitting and modelling. A well-fit curve may be useful for interpolating a given data set, but such a model may break down when extrapolated to describe past or future trends. The town of Decimal Point is enjoying a fiscal surplus, a pleasant situation in which financial revenues exceed expenses. How should the town’s funds be invested in order to earn the best rate of return? The compound interest formula modelling the future amount, A, of an investment with initial principal P is A P(1 i)n, where i is the interest rate per compounding period, in decimal form, and n is the number of compounding periods.

Example 2

Investment Optimization

Decimal Point has a surplus of $50 000 to invest to build a recreation centre. The two best investment options are described in the table.
Investment Option Interest Rate Conditions Lakeland Savings Bond 1 6 _ % compounded annually 4 2% of initial principal penalty if withdrawn before 10 years Northern Equity Mutual Fund 6% compounded semi-annually none

a) Construct an algebraic model that gives the amount, A, as a function of time, t, in years, for each investment. b) Which of these investment options will allow the town to double its money faster? c) Illustrate how these relationships compare, graphically. d) If the town needs $80 000 to begin building the recreation centre, how soon can work begin, and which investment option should be chosen?

Solution
a) Determine the number of compounding periods and the interest rate per compounding period for each investment. Then, substitute these values into the algebraic model. Use a table to organize the information.
Lakeland Savings Bond Number of compounding periods, n Interest rate per compounding period, i A P(1 i)n n t 0.0625 Northern Equity Mutual Fund n 2t 2 periods per year

1 6 _ % per year 4 A

6% per year 0.03 A

50 000(1.0625)t

50 000(1.03)2t

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b) To determine how long it will take for each investment to double in value, substitute A 100 000 and solve for t. Lakeland Savings Bond A 100 000 2 log 2 log 2 t 50 000(1.0625) (1.0625)t log (1.0625)t t log 1.0625 log 2 __ log 1.0625 11.4 The Lakeland investment will take approximately 11.4 years to double in value. Take the common logarithm of both sides. Use the power law of logarithms. Divide both sides by log 1.0625.
t

Northern Equity Mutual Fund 100 000 2 log 2 log 2 t t 50 000(1.03)2t (1.03)2t log (1.03)2t 2t log 1.03 log 2 __ 2 log 1.03 11.7 Take the common logarithm of both sides. Use the power law of logarithms. Divide both sides by 2 log 1.03.

50 000(1.0625)t

The Northern Equity investment will take approximately 11.7 years to double in value.

Therefore, the Lakeland Savings Bond will allow the town to double its money slightly faster. c) The two investment relationships can be compared graphically using graphing software.

Note that f(x) corresponds to Lakeland Savings Bond and g(x) to Northern Equity Mutual Fund and that both are functions of x, measured in tens of thousands of dollars ($10 000).

7.5 Making Connections: Mathematical Modelling With Exponential and Logarithmic Equations • MHR 401

d) The graph indicates that both accounts will reach $80 000 after about 8 years. The Lakeland account earns interest faster, but is it the best choice for preparing to build the recreation centre? The penalty for early withdrawal must be considered. The exponential model can be adjusted for withdrawals that happen within the first 10 years by subtracting 2% of the initial principal. The adjusted equation becomes A 50 000(1.0625)t 0.02(50 000)

2% penalty for early withdrawal or A 50 000(1.0625)t 1000.

Applying a vertical shift to the original amount function can reveal the effect of this penalty.

The function q(x) represents the adjusted amount function for the Lakeland account. It is unclear from the graph which account will reach $80 000 first. Apply algebraic reasoning to decide. Substitute A A 80 000 81 000 1.62 log 1.62 log 1.62 t 80 000 and solve for t. 1000 1000 Add 1000 to both sides. Divide both sides by 50 000.
t

Lakeland Savings Bond (penalty adjusted) 50 000(1.0625)t 50 000(1.0625) 50 000(1.0625) (1.0625)
t t t

log (1.0625) t log 1.0625 log 1.62 __ log 1.0625 7.96

Take the common logarithm of both sides.

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The Lakeland account will reach $80 000 in value after 7.96 years, after adjusting for the early withdrawal penalty. Northern Equity Mutual Fund A 80 000 1.6 log 1.6 log 1.6 t 50 000(1.03)2t 50 000(1.03)2t 1.032t log (1.03)2t 2t log 1.03 log 1.6 __ 2 log 1.03 7.95 Take the common logarithm of both sides.

The Northern Equity account will reach $80 000 in value after 7.95 years. Since the time difference between these two accounts is so small, it does not really matter which one is chosen, from a purely financial perspective. Other factors may be considered, such as the additional flexibility afforded by the Northern Equity account. If the township finds itself in a deficit situation (where expenses exceed revenues), for example, and if some of the money in reserve is required for other, more urgent, purposes, then the Northern Equity account may be preferable.
Reasoning and Proving Representing Selecting Tools

Problem Solving Connecting Reflecting

Communicating

<

KEY CONCEPTS

Different technology tools and strategies can be used to construct mathematical models that describe real situations. A good mathematical model • is useful for both interpolating and extrapolating from given data in order to make predictions • can be used, in conjunction with other considerations, to aid in decision making Exponential and logarithmic equations often appear in contexts that involve continuous growth or decay.

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7.5 Making Connections: Mathematical Modelling With Exponential and Logarithmic Equations • MHR 403

Communicate Your Understanding
C1 Refer to Example 1. Two regression models were proposed and one was found to be better. a) What was the basis for rejecting the quadratic model? b) Consider a linear model for the data. Is it possible to construct a line that fits the given data reasonably well? c) Would a linear model be valid for extrapolation purposes? Explain why or why not. C2 Explain the difference between curve-fitting and mathematical modelling. Identify any advantages either procedure has over the other. C3 Refer to Example 2. Suppose that instead of an early withdrawal penalty, the investment agency provids a bonus of 2% of the principal if it is not withdrawn before 10 years have elapsed. How could this be reflected using a transformation, and when will it apply?

A

Practise
3. Refer to the two exponential models developed in Example 1: P 1006(1.016)t P 1000 2 43.5
t _

For help with questions 1 to 3, refer to Example 1. 1. Plans for Decimal Point call for a highway off-ramp to be built once the town’s population reaches 6500. When should the off-ramp be built? 2. The town historian is writing a newspaper article about a time when Decimal Point’s population was only 100. Estimate when this was.

a) Use both models to predict i) the town’s population after 100 years ii) how long it will take for the town’s population to reach 20 000 b) Do these models generate predictions that are identical, quite close, or completely different? How would you account for any discrepancies?

B

Connect and Apply
5. Suppose two other investment options are available for Decimal Point’s reserve fund:
Investment Option Interest Rate Conditions Rural Ontario Investment Group 1 6 _ % compounded 2 semi-annually no penalty Muskoka Guaranteed Certificate 6% compounded monthly 1% of initial principal penalty if withdrawn before 10 years

For help with questions 4 and 5, refer to Example 2. 4. Suppose that the Reasoning and Proving Representing Selecting Tools Lakeland Savings Bond group waives Problem Solving the early withdrawal Connecting Reflecting Communicating penalty. How might this affect the investment decision for the town? Provide detailed information.

Should either of these investments be considered? Justify your reasoning. 404 MHR • Advanced Functions • Chapter 7

6. Use Technology The table gives the surface area of seawater covered by an oil spill as a function of time.
Time (min) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Surface Area (m2) 0 2 4 7 11 14 29

8. Refer to question 7. Suppose that a penalty for early withdrawal of 5% of the initial investment is applied if the withdrawal occurs within the first 4 years. a) Write an equation for the adjusted value of the investment as a function of time. b) Describe the effect this adjustment would have on the graph of the original function. 9. Use Technology
Reasoning and Proving a) Prepare a cup of Representing Selecting Tools hot liquid, such as Problem Solving coffee, tea, or hot Reflecting Connecting water. Carefully Communicating place the cup on a stable surface in a room at normal room temperature.

a) Create a scatter plot of surface area versus time. Describe the shape of the curve. b) Perform the following types of regression to model the data: i) linear ii) quadratic iii) exponential (omit time 0 for this regression) Record the equation for the line or curve of best fit in each case. c) Assuming that the spill is spreading isotropically (equally in all directions), which model do you think makes the most sense for t 0? Explain why. d) Use the model that you chose in part c) to predict i) the size of the oil spill after 10 min ii) the length of time it will take for the spill to reach a diameter of 30 m e) Describe any assumptions you must make. 7. A $1000 investment earns 8% interest, compounded quarterly. a) Write an equation for the value of the investment as a function of time, in years. b) Determine the value of the investment after 4 years. c) How long will it take for the investment to double in value?

b) Record the temperature of the liquid as it cools, in a table like the one shown. Collect several data points.
Time (min) 0 2 4 Temperature (°C)

c) Create a scatter plot of temperature versus time. Describe the shape of the curve. d) Create the following models for the data, using regression: i) quadratic ii) exponential Record the equation for each model. e) Which of these is the better model? Justify your choice. f) Use the model that you chose in part e) to estimate how long it will take for the liquid to cool to i) 40°C ii) 30°C iii) 0°C Justify your answers and state any assumptions you must make.

7.5 Making Connections: Mathematical Modelling With Exponential and Logarithmic Equations • MHR 405

10. Chapter Problem Decimal Point is hosting Summer-Fest: a large outdoor concert to celebrate the start of summer. The headline act is a rising rock group from Australia.
Live, from Australia:

✓Achievement Check
11. Use Technology The table shows the population growth of rabbits living in a warren.
Time (months) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Number of Rabbits 16 18 21 24 32 37 41 50

Koalarox!
Featuring

Rocco Rox on lead guitar! Boom Boom Biff on drums! When: July 1, 8:00 p.m. Where: Integer Island

During sound checks, the band’s sound crew is responsible for setting various acoustic and electronic instruments to ensure a rich and balanced sound. The difference in two sound levels, 1 and 2, in decibels, is given by the I2 logarithmic equation 2 10 log _ , 1 I1 I2 where _ is the ratio of their intensities. I1 a) Biff’s drum kit is miked to produce a sound level of 150 dB for the outdoor venue. The maximum output of Rocco’s normal electric guitar amplifier is 120 dB. What is the ratio of the intensities of these instruments? Explain why Rocco’s signal needs to be boosted by a concert amplifier.

CONNECTIONS A warren is a den where rabbits live. a) Create a scatter plot of rabbit population versus time. b) Perform the following types of regression to model the data: i) linear ii) quadratic iii) exponential Record the equation for the line or curve of best fit in each case. c) Assuming that the rabbit population had been steadily growing for several months before the collection of data, which model best fits the situation, and why? d) Use the model to predict when the population will reach 100. e) Do you think this trend will continue indefinitely? Explain why or why not.

()

b) After a few heavier songs, the band plans to slow things down a bit with a couple of power ballads. This means that Rocco will switch to his acoustic guitar, which is only one ten-thousandth as loud as his normally amplified electric guitar. By what factor should the sound crew reduce Biff’s drums to balance them with Rocco’s acoustic guitar? CONNECTIONS You first compared sound levels using the decibel scale in Chapter 6. Refer to Section 6.5.

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C

Extend and Challenge
14. Use your data from question 13. A piecewise linear function is a function made up of two or more connected line segments. Could the data be modelled using a piecewise linear function? If so, do so. If not, explain why not. 15. Math Contest A cyclist rides her bicycle 1 1 1 over a route that is _ uphill, _ level, and _ 3 3 3 downhill. If she covers the uphill part of the route at a rate of 16 km/h, and the level part at a rate of 24 km/h, what rate would she have to travel during the downhill part of the route in order to average 24 km/h for the entire route? 16. Math Contest A circle with radius √2 is centred at the point (0, 0) on a Cartesian plane. What is the area of the smaller segment cut from the circle by the chord from ( 1, 1) to (1, 1)? 17. Math Contest The quantities x, y, and z are z positive, and xy _ . If x is increased by 50%, 4 and y is decreased by 25%, by what percent is z increased or decreased?

12. a) Find some data on the Internet, or elsewhere, that could be modelled by one or more of the following: • a line of best fit • a quadratic curve of best fit • an exponential curve of best fit b) Describe the nature of the data. c) Use Technology Perform regression analysis for each type of curve. Record the equation in each case. How well does each line or curve fit the data? d) Which is the best model and why? e) Pose and solve two problems based on the data and your best model. 13. Use Technology a) Find some data on the Internet, or elsewhere, that could be modelled by a logistic curve. b) Describe the nature of the data. c) Perform logistical regression analysis. Record the equation. How well does each line or curve fit the data? d) Which is the best model and why? e) Pose and solve two problems based on the data and your best model. CONNECTIONS

Certain types of growth phenomena follow a pattern that can be modelled by a logistic function, c which takes the form f(x) __ , where a, b, and c are constants related to the conditions 1 ae bx of the phenomenon, and e is a special irrational number, like π. Its value is approximately 2.718. The logistic curve is sometimes called the S-curve because of its shape. Logistic functions occur in diverse areas, such as biology, environmental studies, and business, in situations where resources for growth are limited and/or where conditions for growth vary over time. Go to www.mcgrawhill.ca/links/functions12 and follow the links to learn more about logistic functions and logistic curves.

y

0

x

7.5 Making Connections: Mathematical Modelling With Exponential and Logarithmic Equations • MHR 407