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25 avril 2010

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

Weekly Markets Update

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Weekly Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

25 avril 2010

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

Fundamental Outlook: Risk correction fails to materialize, so far
Last Friday's sell-off in risky assets suggested this past week might see a broader correction lower in risk, but it only lasted a few hours at the start of this past week. Markets quickly shrugged off the fraud indictment of a US investment bank and took some solace in ongoing US corporate earnings surprises (more below). Greece funding concerns weighed on the EUR and risk appetites most of this past week, but news on Friday that Greece has requested access to the EU/IMF loan package has allowed a mild relief rally to unfold. Whereas last week risky assets (stock, commodities, JPY-crosses) finished out at the bottom of recent ranges, this past week sees them closing nearer to recent range highs. The key word here is 'range' and we're still stuck in them. The most puzzling development of this past week is not that we're back at recent range highs, but that we're not above them. Incoming economic data has mostly been surprising to the upside (e.g. better ZEW, Eurozone PMI's, IFO, US durable goods and housing reports) and would seem to suggest the global recovery is gaining momentum, which should have seen risk assets test higher. That's the dog that isn't barking. Perhaps we're just impatient and the market needs more time to digest recent news before the risk rally can extend, but it certainly feels as though markets are at a critical inflection point. In last week's update, we outlined many of the market internals that supported a correction lower in risk, and those factors may still see that downside scenario play out. In light of this week's developments, though, we have to focus on the upside potential for risk trades, and we will be ever-mindful of recent range highs (especially USD/JPY 95.00, AUD/JPY 87.50, and S&P 500 1227 61.8% retracement). Looking ahead to next week, talk is that a deal may be struck as soon as this weekend among US lawmakers hashing out financial regulatory reform. US banks don't seem to be in line for serious punishment, at least not according to the KBW Bank index, which is set to close at its highest level yet in the current rally. Details of any FinReg deal will be important, so we'll stay flexible on this. Also likely over the weekend will be loads of Greece supportive comments coming from G-20/IMF/World Bank officials meeting in Washington. As of Friday's close, Greek CDS's (and other Eurozone peripheral nations') show little sign of buying into the rescue package as the end of the funding concerns, so we're also wary about the bounce in EUR(more below). We don't expect any material changes from the Fed when they release their statement on Wednesday. On Friday, markets seemed to latch on to talk that the Fed might begin selling some balance sheet assets in the near future, sending US Treasuries lower and yields higher, supporting USD/JPY. However, we don't think any asset sales are imminent in light of recent Bernanke comments suggesting he thinks the Fed's balance sheet holdings are appropriate. As always, we'll be alert for any additional credit tightening moves out of China. Lastly, next week will be month-end, and we fully expect the usual disjointed moves around the month-end fixings. Overall, with US stocks having gained for the month, USD-selling is likely to be dominant as asset managers rebalance currency hedges. Weaker Q1 GDP may give the Tory party, and GBP a short-term boost At just +0.2% q/q, UK Q1 GDP expanded at only half the expected pace. Unsurprisingly the data knocked sterling lower. It will also have knocked the spirits of the incumbent labour government which has been spinning the line that its careful management has helped steer from the worst recession in living memory. Opinion polls released earlier in the week indicated that the preferred election outcome as far as the market was concerned was for a majority government of any persuasion. If the poor GDP data help the Tory party extend its lead in the weekend opinion polls then sterling could regain its losses. Exit polls following the latest televised debate from the leaders of the three main political parties imply that the Tory's Cameron and the Lib-Dem's Clegg both performed equally well. Overall, polls suggest while more people appear likely to vote for the Tory party on May 6, the surge in popularity of Clegg over the past week means that the election could be a three horse race. While a hung parliament would not be a surprise for the market, fears that this would lead to more inter-government bickering, which could delay action on budget deficit reduction, would reduce the chances of a significant and sustained sterling recovery this year. 2 Weekly Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

25 avril 2010

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

Greece enters the next phase of its funding crisis Greece has entered into the next phase of its funding crisis and admitted that it needs to accept loans from the EU and the IMF in order to avoid default in the coming months. The markets initially warmed to the announcement that the Greek government had given up pretending that it could still sell its debt on the open market. However, since Greek bond yields had several weeks ago risen above levels at which the government could realistically afford to issue, Greece's decision was inevitable. It is also nothing to celebrate. The risk of default this year had been effectively cancelled out earlier in the month when the EU made it clear that funds were on offer. The risk of default next year or after the next recession can only be cancelled out when Greece can prove that it can live within its means. This week the EU warned that the 2009 budget deficit could be as large as 14% of GDP. With this in mind, the fear of the Greek people is that more austerity measures will be piled on top of those which have already been announced. The civil unrest that has been sparked by these austerity measures suggest that there is still a risk that Greece will be unable to tolerate further budget slashing measures. This implies that the risk of default may merely be delayed. While official rhetoric continues to suggest that default or an exit from EMU (and a competitive devaluation) are not on the table, the market is likely to stay skeptical until such time that the Greek budget deficit begins to show signs of improvement. Insofar as budget reform is a lengthy process, downside pressure on the EUR could persist for months. Pressure on the EUR may also appear from other parts of the EMU. The Irish government announced a blood curdling austerity budget at the end of last year which involved 20% pay cuts for some public sector workers. The Irish will now be asked to contribute to the Greek bail-out as will Portugal and Spain. Germany may have an opportunity to express its sentiments on Chancellor Merkel's recent caving in on the topic of EMU bailout at the May 9 regional elections. Given prospects for only weak growth in EMU this year, the risk of disgruntlement on the topic of the Greece aid is high. EUR/USD may still have a long way to fall. US corporate earnings well ahead of expectations This past week was a busy one for US earnings reports. We have now seen just about 30% of the S&P 500 report 1Q10 results and the outcomes remain encouraging. Bottom-line earnings (the well advertised EPS numbers) are coming in 22% above the consensus estimates and 48% higher than 1Q09 to boot. This compares with a beat of roughly 5% for the 4Q09 reporting period when earnings rose nearly 100% from the financial crisis driven 4Q08 period. More importantly is the fact that sales numbers (or top-line results) have come in 3% higher than what the market had anticipated. This includes an 8% beat for the financial sector where just about half of the 76 companies have reported. This semblance of organic growth dovetails with what we saw in 4Q09 when sales beat by about 1.5% after a few very difficult quarters. The positive earnings results along with what was another very strong durable goods report (the core business spending number that feeds into GDP was up 4% on the month) suggest businesses will continue to add a considerable amount to US economic growth. The better tone to business spending should continue to put downward pressure on the unemployment rate as employers look to add jobs in order to take the pressure off of the current workforce - which has ratcheted up productivity to a near 6% annual rate! In the near-term, these trends should continue to drive equity markets and interest rates higher. The areas investors would do well to be in should 2010 correlations remain intact are long both AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY. Both have moved about 95% of the time with equities and 85% of time with US rates. CAD/JPY looks to have formed a nice inverted head and shoulders on the 4hour charts and we will look for a break north of 94 to elicit considerable upside here. Meanwhile, AUD/JPY continues to find formidable resistance into 87.50 and thus we will look for a break through there before becoming overly optimistic.

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Weekly Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

25 avril 2010

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

Key data and events to watch next week
The calendar in the United States kicks off with the Case-Shiller home price index and consumer confidence on Tuesday. Wednesday is the highlight of the week with the FOMC rate decision and press statement. We expect the Fed to stand pat on rates but the potential for a shift in the statement is non-trivial. The usual initial jobless claims numbers are due Thursday while the first cut of 1Q GDP, Chicago PMI and the University of Michigan confidence index are due Friday. The data flow slows down in the Eurozone next week but keep in mind that headline risk with regards to the Greek bailout could be quite prevalent. Tuesday kicks it off with French consumer confidence, German GfK confidence and German import prices. German CPI is due on Wednesday while Thursday brings Eurozone consumer confidence and German employment. Eurozone employment and French PPI round out the week on Friday. It is extremely light in the UK next week with home loans on Tuesday and consumer confidence on Thursday the only noteworthy releases. Japan has a busier than usual week ahead. Tuesday starts the week with retail trade. On Thursday we'll see manufacturing PMI, employment, consumer prices and industrial production. Friday closes out the week with the BoJ rate decision and housing starts. Canada is characteristically light. Home prices are up on Wednesday while monthly GDP is due Friday. Look for BOC Governor Carney to speak on Thursday as well. It is pretty busy down under. Australia sees PPI and business confidence on Tuesday, CPI on Wednesday, leading indicators on Thursday and new home sales on Friday. The highlight in New Zealand is the RBNZ rate decision on Wednesday. The bank is expected to leave rates on hold at 2.5% until its July meeting.

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Weekly Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

25 avril 2010 EURUSD

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

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Weekly Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

25 avril 2010

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

The Technical out look for the EUR/USD Sunday, April the 25th, 2010, level 1.3377 Position Strategy: current position FLAT, Enter SHORT on a break of 1.3202 or near 1.3437/44 stop 1.3354 or 1.3590 target 1.3111/47 first for 1.3000 next Enter LONG on a break of 1.3584 with a stop 1.3355 target 1.3566 The EUR/USD has dropped to as low as 1.3202 last week before recovering strongly. As noted before, the break of 1.3267 confirm that the correction from 1.3266 have completed with three waves up to 1.3692 already and we are in now in the resumption of the down trend and further decline is expected between 1.3111/47, the 61.8% projection of 1.4578 to 1.3443 from 1.3815 at 1.3111 or the 150.0% projection of 1.5143 to 1.4217 from 1.4578 at 1.3147. While recovery from 1.3202 might continue, we expect upside to be limited by first by 1.3437/44 levels, the long term trend indicator (the light green line on the chart) and Fibonacci retracement, secondly by 1.3493 and bring fall resumption. But as said previously there is no sign of bottoming: it’s only a correction of the bear trend. The first sign of bottoming will be a break of 1.3447 and 1.3584 will be the second and 1.3692 the confirmation. On the downside, break of 1.3201 will target 1.3111/47 and then to the 1.3 psychological level The trading strategy will be to sell on rally (1.3437/44) or on a break of 1.3202 Furthermore in an Elliott Wave point of view, in the bigger picture, the break of 1.3267 support confirms that whole medium term decline from 1.5143 has resumed. As discussed before, the three wave consolidation from 2008 low of 1.2329 has completed at 1.5143 already and fall from there is resuming whole down trend from 2008 high of 1.6039. We'd expect fall from 1.5143 to break through 1.2329 low eventually. On the upside, break of 1.3692 resistance is needed to be the first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish and the EURO IS IN A BEAR TREND as far that 1.4217 is not broken up In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 has made an important top at 1.6039 in 2008. Subsequent price actions are so far viewed as a correction only, in form of three waves. First wave has completed at 1.2329 while secondly should have completed at 1.5143. Fall from 1.5143, as the third wave of correction, is in progress and should extend to 1.1639 support, and possibly further to 100% projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.5143 at 1.1424. Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 to conclude the correction and bring another long term up trend.

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Weekly Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

25 avril 2010 USD/CHF:

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

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Weekly Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

25 avril 2010

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

The technical outlook for USD/CHF Sunday, April the 25th, 2010, level 1.0728 Position Strategy: Current position FLAT Enter LONG on a break 1.0850 or near 1.0695/1.0664 stop 1.0750 or 1.0556target 1.0897 /1.0911 Enter SHORT on a break 1.0556 stop 1.0664 target 1.0435 USD/CHF surged to as high as 1.0849 last week before treating. The development suggests that correction from 1.0898 has already completed with three waves down to 1.0434 already. Retreat from 1.0849 is expected to be brief and should be contained first by 1.0695 Fibonacci retracement and by 1.0664 Fibonacci retracement and long term trend indicator( light green line on the chart) and will bring another rise to retest 1.0898 resistance. Only a break of 1.0556 will indicate that a top is in place at 1.0849. Decisive break of 1.0898 will confirm that whole medium term rise from 0.9916 has resumed and will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 0.10131to 1.0898 from 1.0506 at 1.0911 a break of this level should then target 100% projection of 1.0131 to 1.0897 from 1.0434 at 1.1200 next. Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the three waves corrective structure of the fall from 1.0897 to 1.0434 affirmed the view that whole rally from 0.9916 is still in progress. USD/CHF's strong break of medium term falling trend line also affirms the view that whole correction from 1.2296 has completed with three waves down to 0.9916. Break of 1.0898 will confirm rally resumption and we should then be seeing another medium term rise towards 1.1963/2296 resistance zone. On the downside, though, break of 1.0434 will invalidate this view and turn outlook mixed. Furthermore, we're neutral in the long term outlook for the moment and would wait for further evidence from the markets before taking a stance.

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Weekly Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

25 avril 2010 EUR/CHF:

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

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Weekly Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

25 avril 2010

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

The technical outlook for EUR/CHF Sunday, April the 25th, 2010, level 1.4354 Position Strategy: Current position : SHORT at 1.4309 stop 1.4387 target 1.4143 first for 1.4005next Enter LONG if we break 1.4387 with a stop 1.4310 target 1.4466. Despite dipping to 1.4292 briefly, there was no follow through selling and EUR/CHF recovered back into familiar range. Outlook is turned neutral again and more choppy sideway trading might be seen. On the downside, break of 1.4292 will argue that rebound from 1.4143 is completed at 1.4465 already and turn bias to the downside for this support first. On the upside, a move above 1.4386 will suggest that stronger recovery might be seen and another high above 1.4466 would be seen before corrective rise from 1.4143 completes. But after all, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 1.4557 support turned resistance to limit upside and bring fall resumption sooner or later. Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the strong break of 1.4135 (2008 low) confirms that whole long term down trend from 1.6287 has resumed. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 1.6368 to 1.4315 from 1.5138 at 1.3869. On the upside, break of 1.4557 spike low resistance is needed to be first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish. In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. We'd expect such down trend to extend towards 100% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.2984 in the longer run.

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Weekly Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

25 avril 2010 GBP/USD:

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

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Weekly Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

25 avril 2010

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

The technical outlook for GBP/USD Sunday, April the 25th, 2010, level 1.5375 Position Strategy: Current position: Flat, Enter SHORT near 1.5618 or on a break of 1.5190 stop 1.5650 or 1.5295 target 1.5042 first for 1.4780 next The GBP/USD dipped to as low as 1.5192 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week and more sideway trading might be seen. Another rise cannot be ruled out yet. However, upside is expected to be limited by 50% retracement of 1.6456 to 1.4780 at 1.5618 to conclude the whole three wave consolidation from 1.4780 and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, a move below 1.5192 will argue that such consolidation from 1.4783 is completed and will flip intraday bias to the downside for retesting 1.4780 low first. A break o this last level will confirm that whole decline from 1.6456 has resumed for 1.4364/37 (200% projection of 1.6875 to 1.5829 from 1.6456 at 1.4364 or 61.8% projection from 1.6456 to 1.4783 from 1.5381 at 1.4337and 76.4% retracement from 1.3500 to 1.6875 at 1.4337). Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, there is no change, we're holding on the bearish view that medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043 already. Fall from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the down trend from 2.1161 and should target a new low below 1.3503. On the upside, break of 1.5815 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (1985 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503 should have completed and the whole fall from 2.1161 is likely resuming for 61.8% projection (2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043) at 1.2310 next.

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Weekly Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

25 avril 2010 AUD/USD

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

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Weekly Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

25 avril 2010

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

The technical outlook for AUD/USD Sunday, April the 25th, level 0.9272 Position Strategy: Current position FLAT, have been stopped on SHORT position from 0.9189 at 0.9257 Enter LONG if we break 0.9327 with a stop 0.9189 target 0.9836 next Enter SHORT on a break 0.9157 stop 0.9257 target 0.9001 The AUD/USD's consolidation from 0.9380 continued last week but after all it's still contained inside near term rising channel, green line on the chart. But last week the AUD/USD rally after braking of the support at 0.9190 and closed over the minor support at .9263, now further rally is still in favor and decisive break of 0.9404 high will confirm medium term rally resumption. On the downside, however, now a break of 0.9157 support will indicate that rise from 0.8577 has completed and deeper decline should be seen to 0.9001 support and below. Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the AUD/USD is still trading well inside the rising channel, green line on the chart, with the lower band now at 0.9198 and rise from 0.6008 should still be in progress. A break again of 0.9327 resistance will affirms the view that rise from 0.8577 will resume such rally and break of 0.9404 will confirm. If we treat the rise from 0.8577 as the fifth wave in the rise from 0.6008 with equal length as the first wave from 0.6008 to 0.7267, upside target will be 0.9836, which is close to 2008 high of 0.9849. On the downside, break of 0.9001 support will, however, suggests that AUD/USD's rally might have completed prematurely and would turn focus back to 0.8577 support instead. In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new uptrend which will extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 cluster support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.

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Weekly Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

25 avril 2010 USD/JPY

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

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Weekly Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

25 avril 2010

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

The technical outlook for USD/JPY Sunday, April the 25th, 2010, level 93.95 Position Strategy: Current position LONG at 93.63 stop 93.29 target 94.68 for 97.06 next Enter SHORT at 91.66 with stop 0.9257 target 89.67 USD/JPY's correction from 94.68 was supported by 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 94.68 to 89.75 at 91.66 and rebounded strongly since then. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for a test on 94.68 resistance first. Break there will confirm that whole rally from 88.13 has resumed and should target 100% projection of 84.81 to 93.74 from 88.13 at 97.06 next. On the downside, below 93.33 minor support will delay the bullish case and bring more sideway trading first. But after all, downside should be contained by 91.66 support and finally bring rally resumption. Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole down trend form 124.13 is completed at 84.81 on bullish convergence condition in daily AO and Stochastic. We'd expect stronger rally towards 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone for confirming this bullish case. On the downside, break of 88.13 support is needed to indicate that rebound from 84.81 is finished. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish. In the long term picture, downside momentum is clearly diminishing and bullish convergence condition in weekly oscillators; the long term down trend in USD/JPY might have reversed. Focus now turns to 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone and decisive break there will also break the lower high lower low pattern since 124.13. This will suggest that a long term bottom is in place and another rising leg of the sideway pattern that started at 79.75 in 1995 should then be in progress for upper side of the range at 147.68.

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Weekly Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

25 avril 2010 EUR/JPY

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

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Weekly Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

25 avril 2010

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

The technical outlook for EUR/JPY Sunday, April the 25th, 2010, level 125.7 Position Strategy: Current position : LONG at 125.63 stop at 124.55 target 127.67/91 first for 128.41next Enter SHORT on a break 123.14 stop 124.10 target 121.05 The EUR/JPY dipped to 123.15 last week but was supported above near term rising trend line, light brown line on the chart, now at 123.25 and turned sideways. While Friday's rebound was strong, EUR/JPY and broke the 125.60 resistance now turn support and went as far as 126.05. But the rally is still limited well below 127.67/91 resistance zone, outlook remain mildly bullish to neutral. Some more sideway trading could be seen initially this week first. On the upside, note that decisive break of 127.91 will confirm that whole rise from 119.64 is still in progress and has resumed for the upper band of t the descending channel now at 128.41. On the downside, note that break of 123.14 support will now indicate that choppy rise from 119.64 is possibly a correction in the larger down trend only and has completed at 127.91 already. Focus will then be shifted for 121.05 support for confirming the bearish case. Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, price actions from 112.10 are treated as correction to long term down trend from 2008 high of 169.96, no doubt. Question is whether such correction is completed at 139.21 already and another rise would still be seen. The momentum of the rise from 119.64 is not strong enough to confirm the bullish case yet and we'll stay neutral. On the upside, another rise above 127.91 will reaffirm the bullish case that rise from 112.10 is resuming for another high above 139.21 before completion. On the downside, break of 121.05 support, however, will revive that case that EUR/JPY has already topped out in medium term at 139.21 and will pave the wave for another low below 112.10 instead. In the long term picture, the uptrend from 88.96 (00 low) was completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Fall from 169.96 should develop into a three wave correction with first wave completed at 112.10. Second wave from 118.10 might still be in progress but after all, we'd expect another long term fall to 118.10 and beyond after the third wave starts.

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Weekly Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

25 avril 2010 GBP/JPY

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

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Weekly Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

25 avril 2010

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

The technical outlook for GBP/JPY Sunday, April the 25th, 2010, level 144.45 Position Strategy:Current position : Flat Enter SHORT on a break of 142.42 or near 144.80/145.05 stop 142.30 or 145.30 target 140.08 first for 134.53/33 next Enter LONG on a break of 145.10 stop 143.27 target 150.68/151.23 first for 163.05 next The GBP/JPY dropped sharply to as low as 139.36 last week but rebounded strongly since then. Nevertheless, upside is still limited below 145.04 resistance and hence, consolidation from there might still continue. Below 142.42 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for the 38.2% retracement of 132.13 to 145.04 at 140.08 first and to 61.8% retracement of 132.13 to 145.04 at 137.04 next and possibly further to 134.53/134.33 support zone. On the upside, however, decisive break of 145.04 will confirm that rise from 132.13 has resumed and should then target 150.68 resistance next. Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, in the bigger picture, the choppy fall from 163.05 might have completed with three waves down to 132.13 already and the corrective structure in turn argue that whole medium term rally from 2009 low of 118.18 is still in progress. However, upside of the current rise from 132.13 is still limited by the near term falling channel and well below 150.68 resistance thus there is no confirmation yet. We'll turn neutral first. On the upside, above 145.04 again will affirm the bullish case and the rise from 132.13 is resuming medium term rally from 118.18. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 163.05 to 132.13 at 151.23 will affirm this case and set the stage for another high above 163.05. On the downside, however, break of 134.53/33 support zone will revive the case that GBP/JPY has topped out at 163.05 and will turn outlook bearish again for 118.18. In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction from 118.81.

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25 avril 2010 USD/CAD

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

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Weekly Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

25 avril 2010

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

The technical outlook for USD/CAD Sunday, April the 25th, 2010, level 0.9990 Position Strategy: Current position Flat, Enter SHORT near 1.0162 now with a stop at 1.0214 target 0.9830 or on a break of 0.9929 stop 1.0005 target 0.9830 first for 0.9444 next Enter LONG on a break of 1.0214 stop 1.0005 target 1.0302 The USD/CAD's down trend resumed last week and edged lower to 0.9929 before recovering. Initial bias remains neutral this week as consolidation from 0.9929 might continue. Nevertheless, upside is expected to be limited well below 1.0214 resistance and bring fall resumption or the upper band of the descending channel now at 1.0162, green line on the chart. Break of 0.9929 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1723 to 1.0205 from 1.0779 at 0.9841, which is close to 0.9823 support. On the upside, note that decisive break of 1.0214 resistance is needed to indicate that USD/CAD has bottomed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, In the bigger picture, whole medium term fall from 1.3063 is still in progress. It's unclear whether such fall is resuming the long term down trend from 1.6196 (2002 high) or it's part of a consolidation pattern that started at 0.9056 (2007 low). In either case, fall from 1.3063 is now expected to continue towards 100% projection of 1.3063 to 1.0784 from 1.1723 at 0.9444 next. On the upside, break of 1.0779 resistance is needed to confirm medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook remains bearish even in case of strong rebound. In the longer term picture, while long term down trend from 1.6196 (2002 high) has made an important low at 0.9056, the sustained trading below the long trend indicators now at 1.0153, green line on the chart, again argues that the long term trend has not reversed yet. Fall from 1.3063 is either resuming the long term down trend or is part of a sideway consolidation pattern that started at 0.9056 (2007 low). We'll stay neutral for the moment until the fall from 1.3063 finally confirms whether it's impulsive or corrective in nature.

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25 avril 2010 GOLD

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

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25 avril 2010

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

The technical outlook for GOLD: Sunday, April the 25th, 2010, level 1156.1 Position Strategy: Current position Flat, have been stopped on my SHORT from 1138.3 at 1150.6 Enter SHORT on a close below 1135.2 stop 1150.6 target 1024.3 first for 1084.8 next Gold's choppy recover from 1124.3 continued last week and reached as high as 1157.9. Further rise would probably be seen initially this week. However, since the recovery from 1124.3 is looking corrective in nature, we'd expect upside to be limited by 1170.7 resistance and bring one more fall to continue the whole consolidation. Below 1135.2 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 61.8% retracement if 1084.8 to 1170.7 at 1117.6 and will bring deep fall towards 1084.8 support. Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the lack of impulsive structure of the rise from 1044.5 so far suggests that it's the second leg of the whole consolidation pattern that started at 1227.5. At this moment, there is no confirmation that rise from 1044.5 is completed yet and another rise might still be seen. However, even in that case, strong resistance should be seen above 100% projection of 1044.5 to 1145.8 from 1084.8 at 1186 to complete the rise and bring the another fall to retest 1044.5 before consolidation from 1227.5 completes. Meanwhile, break of 1084.8 support will indicate that the third falling leg has likely started and will then target a new low below 1044 before completing consolidations from 1227.5. In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.

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25 avril 2010 CrudeOIL

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

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25 avril 2010

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

The technical outlook for OIL Sunday, April the 25th, level 85.02 Current position : LONG at 85.02 stop 83.70 target 86.39 Enter SHORT on a break 81.73 stop 82.9 target 80.37 first for 76.22 next

Crude oil's rebound from 80.53 resumed towards the end after initial setback and closed strongly at 85.02. Further rise would be in favor to retest 87.00/09 the 61.8% projection of 69.50 to 83.16 from 78.56 at 87.00 and 6 April high but after all, sustained break there is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, another fall would still be seen before consolidation from 87.09 concludes. On the downside, below 81.73 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 87.09 at 80.37 or possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 76.22. Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, in the bigger picture, that medium term rise from 33.20 is viewed as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27. Our preferred view is that rise from 33.2 is in form of a three wave structure (73.23, 65.05, ?) and should be near to completion. Strong resistance is expected around 90 psychological level, which coincide with 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 and 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 73.23 from 65.05 at 89.79, and bring reversal. Hence, even though another rally cannot be ruled out, upside potential should be limited. On the downside, break of 69.50 support will break the series of higher low pattern from 33.2 and will be an important indication that the trend has reversed. In such case, we'll turn bearish on crude oil. In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 1998 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we still prefer the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 Fibonacci resistance zone and bring reversal for another low before completing the whole correction from 147.27.

.

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25 avril 2010 DOW JONES INDU. Future June 2010

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

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Weekly Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

25 avril 2010

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

The technical outlook for DJI: Sunday, April the 25th, 2010, level 1142.6 Current position LONG at 10381.4 stop profit 10915 target 11211.75 The Dow rally last week and reached as high as 11151.15 and we are now trading above the target at 11135.9 and by the way confirm the rally resumption and we are heading now to the next target at 11211.75. On the down side, the lower band of the ascending channel now at 11000.70, green line on the chart will bring support and a close under 10917.15 support will be the primary sign of top in place. Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the count suggests that the bear market ended in Mar 09.The anticipated 50% retracement rally was actually the start of a new 70-80 year super cycle bull market. The three waves up are only Major waves 1-2-3 of Primary wave I of Cycle wave I of this bull market. The downtrend from 10723.4 to 9789.9 is wave 4 conclude with alternation with the Jun/July downtrend, and hold the 10% correction, and we are now Major wave 5.Following our count: we are perhaps still in 3 of 5 of I and with the clear of 11135.9 we may reach 11211.77. For remember Wave I is the start of a super bullish super cycle of 50-70 years and will be followed by a wave II in correction that may be very profound.

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25 avril 2010

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

TRACK RECORD
Currency
EUR/USD CHF/USD EUR/CHF GBP/USD AUD/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY GBP/JPY USD/CAD

Long/Short
Flat Flat Short Flat Flat Long Long Flat Flat

Open price

Current Price

Stop

Target

Open P&L pips 0

from April 16th, 2010 Closed P&L Pips 197 74

Total P&L pips 197 74 -44

1.431

1.4354

1.4387

1.4143

-44 0 0 -57 -117 130 151 203 66

-57 -117 162 158 203 66

93.63 125.63

93.95 125.7

93.3 124.55

94.68 127.67

32 7 0

TOTAL
Markets Gold Oil Dow Jones

-5 Long/Short
Flat Long Long 85.02 10381.4 85.12 11142.6 10915 11211.75 Open price Current Price Stop Open P&L points 0.00 0.10 761.20

647
Close P&L pts -12.3 1.4

642
Total P&L pts -12.30 1.50 761.20

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25 avril 2010

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

Economic Calendar

Monday, Apr 26, 2010
GMT Ccy Events Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Apr Consensus Previous 9.5% 7.2% 14:30 USD

Tuesday, Apr 27, 2010
GMT Ccy Events PPI Q/Q Q1 PPI Y/Y Q1 NAB Business Confidence Q1 Small Business Confidence Apr German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey May Consensus Previous 0.6% -0.6% --3.2 4.2% 1.1% --33 106.3 38 --0.4% -1.5% 18 45.8 3.2 2.6% 1.0% 1.199 -34 106.3 000 13 01:30 AUD 01:30 AUD 01:30 AUD 05:00 JPY 06:00 EUR

06:00 EUR German Import Price Index Y/Y Mar 06:00 EUR 06:00 CHF 06:45 EUR 07:30 EUR German Import Price Index M/M Mar UBS Consumption Indicator Mar French Consumer Confidence Indicator Apr Italian Consumer Confidence Index s.a. Apr

08:30 GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase Mar 10:00 GBP U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Apr

30

Weekly Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

25 avril 2010

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]
-0.15% 0.8% -53.7 9 -3.7 2667 -----0.6% 3.6% -5.0% 0.32% -0.7% 145.32 52.5 6 -3.3 2667.9 -741K -1743K -3103K -50 0.9% 4.2% -4.0%

13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 s.a. M/M Feb 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Feb 13:00 USD 14:00 USD 14:00 USD 14:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Feb Consumer Confidence Apr Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Apr Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaks in Washington D.C.

17:00 EUR French Total Jobseekers Change Mar 17:00 EUR 20:30 USD 20:30 USD 20:30 USD French Total Jobseekers Mar API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (APR 23) API U.S. Gasoline Inventories (APR 23) API U.S. Distillate Inventory (APR 23)

21:00 USD ABC Consumer Confidence (APR 25) 23:50 JPY 23:50 JPY 23:50 JPY Retail Trade s.a. M/M Mar Retail Trade Y/Y Mar Large Retailers' Sales Mar

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Weekly Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

25 avril 2010

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

Wednesday, Apr 28, 2010
GMT ----Ccy EUR EUR EUR EUR Events German CPI M/M Apr P German CPI Y/Y Apr P German HICP M/M Apr P German HICP Y/Y Apr P CPI Q/Q Q1 CPI Y/Y Q1 Consensus Previous 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 1.3% 0.8% 2.8% 0.6% 2.9% 0.7% 3.0% -85.0 -----0.25% 2.50% 0.5% 1.1% 0.6% 1.2% 0.5% 2.1% 0.6% 3.2% 0.7% 3.6% 42.5 84.1 13.6% 7.5% 1894K 3587K 2096K 0.25% 2.50%

01:30 AUD 01:30 AUD

01:30 AUD CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Q/Q Q1 01:30 AUD CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Y/Y Q1 01:30 AUD CPI RBA Weighted Median Q/Q Q1 01:30 AUD CPI RBA Weighted Median Y/Y Q1 03:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence Apr 07:30 EUR Italian Business Confidence Apr 11:00 USD 13:00 CAD 14:30 USD 14:30 USD 14:30 USD 18:15 USD 21:00 NZD 32 MBA Mortgage Applications (APR 23) Canada House Price Index Y/Y Feb DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (APR 23) DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (APR 23) DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (APR 23) FOMC Interest Rate Decision RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

Weekly Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

25 avril 2010 22:45 NZD

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]
----321M -347 3.00B 3.32B

Trade Balance (NZD) Mar

22:45 NZD Trade Balance (YTD) (NZD) Mar 22:45 NZD 22:45 NZD Imports (NZD) Mar Exports (NZD) Mar

33

Weekly Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

25 avril 2010

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

Thursday, Apr 29, 2010
GMT Ccy Events Conference Board Leading Index Feb Money Supply M3 Y/Y Mar Consensus Previous ---10K 8.0% -0.2% -0.1% --99.4 -0.12 -15 -8 3 -442K 4613K --15 -0.2% -5.1% -31K 8.0% -0.2% -0.4% 0.0% 2.1% 97.7 -0.32 -15 -10 1 -0.64 456K 4646K 5.9% -15 00:00 AUD 03:00 NZD

07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Apr 07:55 EUR 08:00 EUR 08:00 EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. Apr Eurozone M3 s.a. (3M) Mar Eurozone M3 s.a. Y/Y Mar

08:00 EUR Italian Hourly Wages M/M Mar 08:00 EUR Italian Hourly Wages Y/Y Mar

09:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Apr 09:00 EUR Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Apr

09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Apr F 09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Apr 09:00 EUR 12:30 USD 12:30 USD 12:30 USD 22:45 NZD 23:01 GBP 34 Eurozone Services Confidence Apr Chicago Fed National Activity Index Mar Initial Jobless Claims (APR 24) Continuing Claims (APR 17) Building Permits M/M Mar GfK Consumer Confidence

Weekly Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

25 avril 2010 Survey Apr 23:15 JPY 23:30 JPY 23:30 JPY 23:30 JPY 23:30 JPY

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Apr Tokyo CPI Y/Y Apr Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food Y/Y Apr Tokyo CPI Ex Food Energy Y/Y Apr National CPI Y/Y Mar

--2.1% -2.1% -1.6% -1.1% -1.2% -1.1% 4.9% 0.48 0.7% 0.8% 31.1% -----

52.4 -1.8% -1.8% -1.2% -1.1% -1.2% -1.1% 4.9% 0.47 -0.5% -0.7% 31.3% -82.0B 435.8B 140.4B 201.2B

23:30 JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food Y/Y Mar 23:30 JPY 23:30 JPY 23:30 JPY 23:30 JPY National CPI Ex Food Energy Y/Y Mar Jobless Rate Mar Job-To-Applicant Ratio Mar Household Spending Y/Y Mar

23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Mar P 23:50 JPY 23:50 JPY 23:50 JPY 23:50 JPY 23:50 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Mar P Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (JPY) (APR 23) Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (JPY) (APR 23) Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (JPY) (APR 23) Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (JPY) (APR 23)

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Weekly Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

25 avril 2010

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

Friday, Apr 30, 2010
GMT -Ccy JPY Events BoJ Interest Rate Decision Consensus Previous 0.10% -0.4% 1.9% -0.4% --5.8% 0.826M --0.6% 1.9% 0.4% 1.5% 0.2% 1.4% 0.6% 1.4% 1.5% 10.0% 1.99 0.10% -5.2% 0.4% 1.6% -0.7% 74.9% -9.3% 0.794M -20.3% -0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 10.0% 1.93

01:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales M/M Mar 01:30 AUD Private Sector Credit M/M Mar 01:30 AUD 01:30 JPY 04:00 JPY 05:00 JPY 05:00 JPY 05:00 JPY Private Sector Credit Y/Y Mar Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y Mar Vehicle Production Y/Y Mar Housing Starts Y/Y Mar Annualized Housing Starts Mar Construction Orders Y/Y Mar

06:45 EUR French Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q (1Q P) 06:45 EUR 06:45 EUR 08:00 EUR 08:00 EUR 09:00 EUR 09:00 EUR 09:00 EUR 09:00 EUR French PPI M/M Mar French PPI Y/Y Mar Italian PPI M/M Mar Italian PPI Y/Y Mar Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) M/M Apr P Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) Y/Y Apr P Italian HICP M/M Apr P Italian HICP Y/Y Apr P

09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Apr 09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Mar 09:30 CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator Apr

36

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25 avril 2010

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]
8.6% 0.4% --3.4% 3.1% 0.5% 0.9% 0.5% 60.0 71.0 --8.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.4% 5.6% 1.6% 1.8% 0.5% 0.5% 58.8 69.5 62 0.5

10:00 EUR Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. Mar 12:30 CAD 12:30 CAD GDP M/M Feb Industrial Product Price M/M Mar

12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Mar 12:30 USD 12:30 USD 12:30 USD 12:30 USD 12:30 USD 13:45 USD GDP (Annualized) Q1 A Personal Consumption Q1 A Core PCE Q/Q Q1 A GDP Price Index Q1 A Employment Cost Index Q1 Chicago PMI Apr

13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Apr F 14:00 USD 20:15 USD NAPM-Milwaukee Apr Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index Apr Apr

37

Weekly Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

25 avril 2010

[WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) covering the subject Currencies, Futures, Commodities & Securities. No part of said person's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. In addition, said analyst has not received compensation from any subject company in the last 12 months.

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T i i s R Ac l e t r l e s a b e re e rch hs J i n e a l s a

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