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RISK OF ISLAMABAD-RAWALPINDI

METRO BUS PROJECT


INTRODUCTION:
Islamabad is the Capital City of Pakistan and the ninth largest country. Located
within the Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT), the population of the city has grown
from 100,000 in 1951 to 1.30 million in 2012. The greater Islamabad-Rawalpindi
Metropolitan Area is the largest conurbation in Pakistan with a population of over
4.5 million inhabitants.
The concept of Metro Bus System is a rapid mode of transportation that can provide
the quality of rail transit with flexibility of buses. Metro Bus System has been
implemented in several cities throughout the world as a low-cost, rail-like method of
moving people quickly and efficiently.
THE NEED FOR METRO BUS SYSTEM:
Twin cities Islamabad and Rawalpindi are growing rate of more than 4% per annum,
with present growth trends it is expected that the population would increase up to
7.0 million in next twenty years. Currently private transport is the major means of
mobility between two cities comprising of Mazda, Toyota Hiace, and Suzuki vans
plying on various routes within and between two cities. Traffic volume of over
210,000 vehicles ply on three major corridors connecting two carrying around
525,000 passengers.
It is estimated that public transport demand of around 153,000 passengers is
required to cater daily basis between two cities. Interestingly this passenger
demand is concentrated around a corridor which is highly density and strategically
located to provide for a rapid transit system.
The government will execute the project through Rawalpindi Development Authority
(RDA). It will work in close coordination with the Capital Development Authority
(CDA) for the Islamabad part of the project Punjab Metrobus Authority (PMA) will
control the operational & maintenance of the project after its completion.

PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT


1. Plan Risk Management
In a mega project like Metro Bus Service Islamabad-Rawalpindi there may exist
number of different risk factors that need to be mitigated. Following are some
examples of the risks and their plans by Government.
S.
N
O.
1

2
3

RISK

PLAN

SOURCE

The Civil Aviation Authority


(CAA) has expressed concerns
that the elevated road to be
constructed for the Rs. 38
billion Metro Bus service will
be risk for the flights on the
runway of Benazir Bhutto
International Airport
Environment
Impact
Assessment
Hundreds of laborers working
on the Metro Bus Project in the
twin cities are not only
vulnerable
to
the
risks
involved in construction, and
health
hazards
but
also
exploitation owing to the
apathy of the government.

Neither
the
provincial
government nor the local
administration contacted CAA
for a No-Objection Certificate
(NoC) in this regard, but the
authority will raise the issue
on the appropriation forum
soon.
EIA
Report
prepared
by
NESPAK
Metro Bus Project Office look
after in such hazards and is
taking
care
of
security
measures.

Dawn News
(March 2014)

Tribune
(March 2014)
News Today
(January
2,
2014)

2. Perform Qualitative Analysis


Professionals of Nespak team comprising of VP A&P Division, PM Design BRTS,
Principal Engineer and Senior Engineer H&TE Division visited Turkey to study Bus
Rapid Transit System (BRTS) techniques from March 28 to April 6, 2012.
The purpose of the visit was to study the existing Bus Rapid Transit System in
Istanbul, and the techniques applied to resolve various issues and problems in its
implementation process. The team also studied the extension of BRTS in Istanbul
and the techniques applied there.
They met with representatives of the Ulasim Islanbul Transportation Company,
design consultant for Metro Bus Service Project in Lahore and ISBAK INC. dealing
with intelligent traffic control system in Istanbul. The delegates also visited
construction sites of mass transit projects such as Istanbul Metro, Istanbul Bus Rapid
Transit System and held meetings with their contractors.

3. Perform Quantitative Analysis:


The load pile tests are conducted to determine the underground formations to prove
that the soil is capable of sustaining the designed load of the infrastructure that
could be a bridge or even a high rise building.
During first 30 days time of the contract award these tests are being conducted
around Sixth Road and Chandni Chowk flyovers. The results of the load pile tests will
be utilized by the consultant and the contractor of the project.
4. Risk Scoring for Project
Risk Score
Impact on
Impacts
Schedule
on cost
A

CONSTRUCTION:
Construction-General

1
.
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
vi.
vii.
viii
.
ix.
2

Risk of unforeseen land resumption costs


Risk of unforeseen preparation cots
Risk of unforeseen increased supervision costs
Safety
Risk of costs and time overturns on major
structures
Material used cause unforeseen maintenance
costs
Interference with site by third parties
Availability of site
Way leaves and facilities

iii.
iv.
v.

Construction-Ground Conditions
Unforeseen ground conditions
Soil survey underestimates quantity of materials
needed
Over ordering due to soil survey overestimations
Third party services not where expected
Cost of samples

i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.

Construction- Environmental
Unpredicted environmental factors
Unexpected impact of environmental legislation
Pollution
Noise
Land contamination

i.
ii.

Medium
High
Negligible
Medium
Medium

Weak
Weak
Negligible
Weak
Weak

Weak

Weak

Weak
Weak

Weak
Negligible

Weak

Weak

Weak
Weak

Medium
Weak

Negligible
Weak
Negligible

Weak
Weak
Negligible

High
Weak
Weak
Weak
Weak

Weak
Weak
Weak
Medium
High

vi.
4
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
vi.
vii.
viii
.
ix.
x.
xi.
xii.
xiii
.
xiv
.
xv.
xvi
.
xvi
i.
xvi
ii.
xix
.
xx.
xxi
.
B
.

Waste disposal

Weak

Weak

Weak
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
High

Weak
Weak
Weak
Weak
Weak

Weak
Negligible
Weak

Medium
Weak
Negligible

Negligible
High
Weak

Negligible
Medium
Medium

Weak
Weak

Weak
Negligible

Weak

Medium

Weak
Medium

High
Weak

Failure of tests on materials and plant

Negligible

Weak

Improper work or material

Negligible

Negligible

High

High

Negligible
High

Weak
Medium

Medium
High
High
Weak
Medium
Medium
Medium

Medium
High
Medium
Medium
Medium
Weak
High

Construction- Civil Works


Control of labor
Price and quantity of material
Price and quantity of Labor
Price and quantity of plant
Risk that material source will be used by
competing works
Risk on price and availability of sub-contractors
Suitability of existing structures and works
Site access
Site communication
Adverse weather
Manufacturing testing and
materials and plant
Excavation cost overruns
Excavation safety

commissioning

Death or injury to workers


Loss or damage to property, plant & structures
Damage to other roads and structures

Suspension of work
Surface requiring reinstatement
Hire of equipment

of

FORCE MAJEURE:
1

i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
vi.
vii.

Physical damage
Earthquake
Flooding
Acts of God (other)
Fire
Weather
Terrorism