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Carbon Dioxide emissions in

Nigeria?

Population and Carbon Dioxide emissions?

In the past century the amount of carbon dioxide emissions has increased

drastically in the world, many believe that it may be due to the massive increase in

the worlds population. There are more people using up the earths resources, more

people driving cars and more people living in homes. This contributes to the amount

of smoke and carbon dioxide breathed out during respiration. I have never come

across data dating back to the 60's on both Urban Population and Carbon Dioxide

Emissions worldwide. This data showed me the constant rise in the worlds

population and the constant increase in the carbon dioxide emission in relation to

urban population and we can see the rise .Urban population refers to people living

in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices. It is calculated using World

Bank population estimates and urban ratios from the United Nations World

Urbanization Prospects.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), urban population accounted for

54% of the worlds population in 2014. Meaning 54% of the worlds population are

living in urbanized areas of their various countries.

Statement of Task

The main purpose of this investigation is to find the correlation between Urban

Population and Carbon dioxide emission in Nigeria over the span of 20 years. The

type of data that will be collected are urban Population percentage and Carbon

dioxide emissions total which have been collected over 60 years and stored on Gap

Minder

Plan of Investigation

I used three mathematical procedures to carry out my investigation and analyse the

data, a scatter plot of the data, calculation of the least squares regression line and

correlation coefficient. I will also a Chi Squared test to show the dependency of

Carbon Dioxide emissions on Urban Population in Nigeria over 20 years.

Mathematical Investigation

Collected Data

Table 1:

total and the total of the carbon dioxide emissions in Nigeria. From the table you

can see the increase of Carbon Dioxide emissions till 2006, I think the reduction

after 2006 is due to the wide spread awareness of global warming and its effects on

the environment.

Figure 1

Figure 1: This figure shows the relationship between Urban Population and Carbon

Dioxide Emissions in Nigeria. (Graph by Plotly)

Figure 2

Figure 2 is the same scatter plot as the last, but this time there is a line of best fit.

As we can see the line has positive linear correlation. This shows that there is a

relation between two variables used in the data and they do have an effect on one

another.

Correlation Coefficient

A number between +1 and 1 calculated so as to represent the linear

interdependence of two variables or sets of data

Results:

X Values

= 940.28

Mean = 40.882

(X - Mx)2 = SSx = 485.321

Y Values

= 1536909

Mean = 66822.13

(Y - My)2 = SSy = 12012917320.367

X and Y Combined

N = 23

(X - Mx)(Y - My) = 1631752.632

R Calculation

r = ((X - My)(Y - Mx)) / ((SSx)(SSy))

r = 1631752.632 / ((485.321)(12012917320.367)) = 0.6758

Linear Regression

Linear regression is an approach for modelling the relationship between a

scalar dependent variable y and one or more explanatory variables (or

independent variables) denoted X.

Figure 3

equation is in the y intercept form. It can be fitted as a line of best fit as seen

in Figures 2 and 3

The equation of the regression line is:

y = 70631.125 + 3362.216x

The graph of the regression line is:

y = -70631.125 + 3362.216 x

XY

33.215

59337.667

1970900.609 1103.23622

41

5

33.904

70741.000

2398402.864

1149.48121

6

34.593

42438.000

1468057.734

1196.67564

9

35.282

45371.333

1600791.370 1244.81952

91

4

35.994

45243.000

1628476.542

1295.56803

6

36.706

64878.000

2381411.868

1347.33043

6

37.419

60056.333

2247247.924 1400.18156

53

1

38.131

46654.667

1778989.107 1453.97316

38

1

38.843

34914.000

1356164.502

39.545

40417.667

1598316.641 1563.80702

52

5

40.246

40186.667

1617352.600 1619.74051

08

6

40.948

40179.333

1645263.327 1676.73870

68

4

41.649

44784.667

1865236.595 1734.63920

88

1

42.351

79174.333

3353112.176 1793.60720

88

1

43.031

83343.333

3586346.962 1851.66696

32

1

43.711

98116.333

4288763.031 1910.65152

76

1

44.390

93129.667

4134025.918

1970.4721

13

45.070

97038.333

4373517.668

2031.3049

31

45.750

104034.333

4759570.734

2093.0625

75

46.400

93316.667

4329893.348

2152.96

8

47.050

90610.667

4263231.882

XX

1508.77864

9

2213.7025

Finding A and B

y = a + bx

y = 70631.125 + 3362.216x (This is the linear regression line, it can be used as a

line of best fit Figure 2 and 3).

Data Understanding

The graph in Figure 1 showed the rise and then fall of Carbon Dioxide emissions. In

Figure 2 and 3 the same graph is shown but this time they both have the line of best

fit and Figure 3 also had the regression calculation. The line showed a positive linear

correlation. Also from calculating my correlation coefficient which was 0.6578

meaning there was a strong correlation.

Limitations

There was only one limitation in my investigation and that was I was unable to get

sufficient data. I was only able to collate data from 1987 till 2009. If I had data

dating till 2014, then it will help support my investigation.

Conclusion

From my investigation I believe I received a concrete answer to my studies and was

able to come to the conclusion that Carbon Dioxide emissions in relation to Urban

Population were rising from 1987 till 2006 where they peaked and they gradually fell

from 2006 to 2009 and this can be attributed to the wide spread awareness of

global warming in the world. For a 3rd world country such as Nigeria which my

investigation was focused on this was a remarkable improvement in the effort to

reduce the damage of greenhouse gases such as Carbon Dioxide and its effects on

the environment. My line of best fit and correlation coefficient gave positive results

which reinforced my conclusion of the increase of Carbon Dioxide emissions with the

continuous increase in Urban Population.

Bibliography

Gapminder, can, T. and Documentation, territories (no date) Data. Available at:

http://www.gapminder.org/data/ (Accessed: 18 March 2016).

Linear regression (2016) in Wikipedia. Available at:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_regression (Accessed: 18 March 2016).

Citations, Quotes & Annotations

Gapminder, can, T. and Documentation, territories (no date) Data. Available at:

http://www.gapminder.org/data/ (Accessed: 18 March 2016).

(Gapminder, can, and Documentation, no date)

Linear regression (2016) in Wikipedia. Available at:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_regression (Accessed: 18 March 2016).

(Linear regression, 2016)

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