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HUANCAVELICA
CRECIMIENTO POBLACIONAL
DEPARTAMENTO DE HUANCAVELICA
POBLACIN
(Habitantes)
Total
331,629
346,797
385,162
454,797
1972
1981
1993
2007
Ecuacin :
Pf = Po ( 1 + r
t )
1993
2007
2007
2007
1993
2007
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
r1 =
r2 =
r3 =
r4 =
r5 =
r6 =
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
r7 =
r8 =
r9 =
r10 =
=== >
r11 =
Pf
t Pf
t^2
454,797
385,162
346,797
331,629
1,518,385
0
(5,392,268)
(9,016,722)
(11,607,015)
(26,016,005)
0
196
676
1,225
2,097
r12 =
1981
331,629
401,717
379,042
356,452
366,863
346,797
340,477
381,031
359,432
362,613
352,167
363,703
372,585
1981
346,797
401,717
379,042
356,452
366,863
346,797
340,477
381,031
359,432
362,613
352,167
363,703
372,585
1993
385,162
424,588
410,608
395,971
402,808
389,484
385,162
411,863
397,945
400,036
393,110
400,750
406,499
2007
454,797
454,797
454,797
454,797
454,797
454,797
454,797
454,797
454,797
454,797
454,797
454,797
454,797
Po =
r =
454,797
1.29
Tasa
0.51%
0.77%
1.06%
0.92%
1.20%
1.29%
0.74%
1.02%
0.98%
1.12%
0.96%
0.85%
Curva seleccionada:
50,000
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
TIEMPO (Aos)
Censo
10
11
1972
1981
1993
2007
Ecuacin :
POBLACIN
(Habitantes)
Urbano
331,629
346,797
385,162
454,797
Rural
0
0
0
0
Pf = Po ( 1 + r ) ^ t
1993
2007
2007
2007
1993
2007
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
r1 =
r2 =
r3 =
r4 =
r5 =
r6 =
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
r7 =
r8 =
r9 =
r10 =
=== >
r11 =
x*y
t*Pf
-144.0
-78.2
0.0
-222.2
b=
r12 =
y
Pf
5.540
5.586
5.658
16.784
x^2
t^2
676
196
0
872
Tasa
----0.50%
0.72%
0.91%
0.88%
1.05%
1.19%
0.69%
0.87%
0.88%
1.04%
0.86%
1.08%
Curva seleccionada:
1,972
331,629
382,194
354,404
331,629
334,896
315,731
300,180
357,670
336,353
334,928
317,043
337,212
312,167
1,981
346,797
399,675
377,878
359,685
362,315
346,796
334,025
380,462
363,485
362,341
347,866
364,174
343,884
Po =
r =
1,993
385,162
424,232
411,614
400,822
402,397
393,022
385,162
413,127
403,096
402,412
393,675
403,507
391,242
454,797 habitantes
1.04 %
2,007
454,797
454,797
454,797
454,797
454,797
454,797
454,797
454,797
454,797
454,797
454,797
454,797
454,797
1,985
1,990
1,995
2,000
2,005
TIEMPO (Aos)
Censo
10
11
12
100,000
50,000
0
1,980
1,985
1,990
1,995
2,000
2,005
TIEMPO (Aos)
Censo
10
1972
1981
1993
2007
Ecuacin :
Pf = A + B
t + C
POBLACIN
(Habitantes)
Urbano
331,629
346,797
385,162
454,797
Rural
0
0
0
0
t^2
t
-35
-26
-14
t^2
1,225
676
196
1
1
1
-35
-26
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
Pf
331,629
346,797
385,162
Det. Coef. =
Det. A =
1,225
676
0
331,629
346,797
454,797
Det. Coef. =
Det. A =
-35
-14
0
1,225
196
0
331,629
385,162
454,797
Det. Coef. =
Det. A =
-26
-14
0
676
196
0
346,797
385,162
454,797
Det. Coef. =
Det. A =
1972
1981
1993
=== >
1972
1981
2007
=== >
1972
1993
2007
=== >
1981
1993
2007
=== >
A1
B1
C1
A2
B2
C2
A3
B3
C3
A4
B4
C4
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
Pf
331,629
346,797
385,162
454,797
1,518,385
t Pf
(11,607,015)
(9,016,722)
(5,392,268)
0
(26,016,005)
2,097
(63,195)
(63,195)
1,996,017
8,093,770
(237,537,260)
t^2
1,225
676
196
0
2,097
Pf t ^ 2
406,245,525
234,434,772
75,491,752
0
716,172,049
Det. Coef. =
Det. B =
Det. C =
t^3
(42,875)
(17,576)
(2,744)
0
(63,195)
1.920E+8
1.144E+12
1.337E+10
11
12
1972
1981
1993
2007
1,981
346,797
345,469
1,993
385,162
383,834
=== >
A5 =
B5 =
C5 =
1,972
331,629
330,301
2,007
454,797
454,797
Sumatoria
1,518,385
1,514,401
2
3
4
5
331,629
331,629
330,939
331,560
346,797
347,089
346,797
346,958
384,794
385,162
385,162
385,033
454,797
454,797
454,797
454,797
A =
B =
C =
454,797.00
5,957.81
69.62
Curva seleccionada:
1,518,017
1,518,677
1,517,695
1,518,348
M TODO PARABOLICO
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
POBLACION (Hab)
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
1,980
1,985
1,990
Censo
1,995
TIEMPO (Aos)
2,000
2,005
Ecuacin :
1972
1981
1993
2007
Total
0
0
0
0
POBLACIN
(Habitantes)
Urbano
331,629
346,797
385,162
454,797
x
(35)
(26)
(14)
0
(75)
xy
-11607015
-9016722
-5392268
0
-26016005
x2
1225
676
196
0
2097
379596.25
-18.75
-28469718.75
1406.25
Rural
0
0
0
0
y2
109977793641
120268159209
148349766244
206840311209
585436030303
Pf = A + B .t
y
331,629
346,797
385,162
454,797
1,518,385
b =
a =
690.75
3552.245747376
446200.857763301
1,981
1,993
2,007
=== >
A5 =
B5 =
1.60 %
Ao
Censo
Aritmtico
Geomtrico
Parablico
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Sumatoria
Diferencia
454,797
462,074
469,467
476,978
484,610
492,364
500,242
508,246
516,377
524,639
533,034
541,562
550,227
559,031
567,975
577,063
8,218,686
-
454,797
460,670
466,543
472,417
478,290
484,163
490,036
495,909
501,782
507,656
513,529
519,402
525,275
531,148
537,022
542,895
7,981,534
(237,152)
454,797
459,510
464,271
469,082
473,943
478,854
483,816
488,830
493,895
499,013
504,184
509,408
514,687
520,020
525,409
530,853
7,870,572
(348,115)
454,797
460,824
466,991
473,297
479,742
486,327
493,050
499,913
506,915
514,057
521,337
528,757
536,316
544,015
551,852
559,829
8,078,020
(140,666)
Exponencial
Modificado
454,797
449,753
453,305
456,858
460,410
463,962
467,514
471,067
474,619
478,171
481,723
485,276
488,828
492,380
495,932
499,485
7,574,079
(644,607)
2,008
Censo
2,010
2,012
Aritmtico
2,014
TIEMPO (Aos)
Geomtrico
2,016
2,018
Parablico
2,020
Exponencial
DEPARTAMENTO DE HUANCAVELICA
DO ARITM TICO
0.51
0.77
1.06
0.92
1.20
1.29
%
%
%
%
%
%
0.74
1.02
0.98
1.12
%
%
%
%
0.96 %
0.85 %
Sumatoria
1,518,385
1,682,819
1,623,489
1,563,672
1,591,331
1,537,875
1,520,913
1,628,722
1,571,606
1,580,059
1,552,241
1,582,953
1,606,466
habitantes
%
Diferencia
--164,434
105,104
45,287
72,946
19,490
2,528
110,337
53,221
61,674
33,856
64,568
88,081
DO ARITM TICO
1995
2000
2005
2010
TIEMPO (Aos)
4
10
11
12
GEOM TRICO
0.50%
0.72%
0.91%
0.88%
1.05%
1.19%
0.69%
0.87%
0.88%
1.04%
0.86%
0.47%
1.08%
Sumatoria
1,518,385
1,660,898
1,598,693
1,546,933
1,554,405
1,510,346
1,474,164
1,606,056
1,557,731
1,554,478
1,513,381
1,559,690
1,502,090
Diferencia
--142,513
80,308
28,548
36,020
8,039
44,221
87,671
39,346
36,093
5,004
41,305
16,295
5,004
GEOM TRICO
1,995
2,000
2,005
2,010
EMPO (Aos)
5
10
11
12
1,995
2,000
2,005
2,010
EMPO (Aos)
5
10
11
12
2268
1034491122
Det. B =
Det. C =
13781745
163269
8190
3724787430
Det. B =
Det. C =
49038432
577632
10290
4679861130
Det. B =
Det. C =
61161947
712873
4368
1986553296
Det. B =
Det. C =
25905260
298510
454,797.00
6,076.61
71.99
454,797.00
5,987.60
70.53
454,797.00
5,943.82
69.28
454,797.00
5,930.69
68.34
t^4
1,500,625
456,976
38,416
0
1,996,017
454,797.00
5,957.81
69.62
Diferencia
--3,984
368
292
690
37
ARABOLICO
1,995
TIEMPO (Aos)
2
2,000
2,005
2,010
446,200.86
3,552.25
Tasa
Crecimiento
Curva
Elegida
454,797
460,670
466,543
472,417
478,290
484,163
490,036
495,909
501,782
507,656
513,529
519,402
525,275
531,148
537,022
542,895
1.29%
1.29%
1.29%
1.29%
1.29%
1.29%
1.29%
1.29%
1.29%
1.29%
1.29%
1.29%
1.29%
1.29%
1.29%
IM IENTO POBLACIONAL
2,012
2,014
TIEMPO (Aos)
Geomtrico
2,016
2,018
Parablico
2,020
Exponencial
2,022
2,024
Censo
PoblacinTotal
1972
1981
1993
2007
27283
26919
19738
19500
Ecuacin :
Pf = Po ( 1 + r
t )
Tasa ( % )
1,981
1,993
2,007
1,993
2,007
2,007
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
r1 =
r2 =
r3 =
r4 =
r5 =
r6 =
1,972
1,972
1,972
1,981
Tasa ( % )
1,993
2,007
2,007
2,007
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
1,981
1,993
2,007
Pf = Po + Po i t
Pf
0
(14)
(26)
(35)
-75
r12 =
1,972
t Pf
19,500
19,738
26,919
27,283
93,440
-1.15%
1,972
t^2
0
(276,332)
(699,894)
(954,905)
(1,931,131)
Censos
1,981
0
196
676
1,225
2,097
1,993
Tasa
1972
Censo
1
2
3
4
5
6
-0.15%
-1.32%
-0.82%
-2.22%
-1.06%
-0.09%
1981
27,283
20,567
36,172
27,283
87,861
31,001
20,106
26,919
20,281
29,652
24,743
46,207
26,919
19,946
7
8
9
10
11
12
-1.33%
-0.83%
-0.82%
-1.07%
-0.83%
-1.15%
36,574
27,424
27,410
31,216
27,548
32,560
29,852
24,829
24,821
27,039
24,905
27,776
Curva seleccionada:
50000
45000
40000
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
TIEMPO (Aos)
Censo
1995
65000
60000
55000
50000
45000
40000
1970
2 METODO GEOMETRICO
1975
1980
1985
1990
TIEMPO (Aos)
Censo
Censo
PoblacinTotal
1,972
0
1,981
0
1,993
0
2,007
0
FUENTE: INEI-Censos Nacionales: 1972, 1981,1993 y 2007
Ecuacin :
Pf = Po ( 1 + r ) ^ t
Tasa ( % )
1,981
1,993
2,007
1,993
2,007
2,007
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
r1
r2
r3
r4
r5
r6
=
=
=
=
=
=
1,972
1,972
1,972
1,981
Tasa ( % )
1,993
2,007
2,007
2,007
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
1,981
1,993
2,007
Censo
1,972
1,981
1,993
2,007
Poblacin
27,283
26,919
19,738
19,500
TOTAL
b= r=
x
t
-35
-26
-14
0
-75
y
Pf
4.44
4.43
4.30
4.29
17
0.00
-0.96%
Censos
1,972
1,981
1,993
2,007
Tasa
Censo
1972
----1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-0.15%
-1.53%
-0.95%
-2.55%
-1.23%
-0.09%
-0.76%
-0.72%
-0.49%
0.41%
1981
27,283
20,545
33,446
27,283
48,202
30,097
20,100
25,429
25,075
23,117
16,881
26,919
20,272
29,114
25,026
38,195
26,919
19,944
23,752
23,506
22,128
17,519
1995
11
12
-0.32%
-0.96%
21,797
27,367
21,182
25,083
Curva seleccionada:
Po =
r =
1,975
1,980
1,985
1,990
TIEMPO (Aos)
Row 161
Row 162
Row 163
Row 164
Row 170
Row 171
Row 172
Row 173
Row 165
Row
3 METODO PARABOLICO:
POBLACION (Hab)
47,000
Censo
1,972
1,981
1,993
2,007
PoblacinTotal
0
0
0
0
1,970 INEI-Censos
1,975
1,980 1981,1993 1,985
FUENTE:
Nacionales: 1972,
y 2007
Ecuacin :
Pf = A + B
t + C
Row 161
Row 170
t^2
TIEMPO (Aos)
Row 162
Row 163
Row 164
Row 171
Row 172
Row 173
t^2
-35
-26
-14
1,225
676
196
27,283
26,919
19,738
1
1
1
-35
-26
0
1,225
676
0
27,283
26,919
19,500
1
1
1
-35
-14
0
1,225
196
0
27,283
19,738
19,500
1
1
1
-26
-14
0
676
196
0
26,919
19,738
19,500
1972
Censos
1981
1993
=== >
1972
1981
2007
=== >
1972
1993
2007
=== >
1981
1993
2007
=== >
Tasa ( % )
Pf = A + B t + C t ^ 2
Pf
t Pf
t^2
0
-14
-26
-35
19,500
19,738
26,919
27,283
0
(276,332)
(699,894)
(954,905)
0
196
676
1,225
-75
93,440
(1,931,131)
2,097
2097
(63,195)
-63195
Determinacion de Coeficientes
(468,631)
1,996,017
14,596,067
Censos
1972
1981
Row 165
Pf
1
1
1
Mnimos cuadrados :
1,990
1993
2007
Row
1972
27,283
45,094
27,283
27,283
36,531
28,201
1981
1993
26,919
44,730
26,919
22,993
26,919
24,754
19,738
37,549
24,670
19,738
19,738
21,460
Curva seleccionada:
A =
B =
C =
M ETODO PARABOLICO
71000
69000
67000
POBLACION (Hab)
65000
63000
61000
59000
57000
55000
1960
1965
Censo
1970
1975
1980
1985
TIEMPO (Aos)
1990
4 METODO EXPONENCIAL:
4.1 DATOS HISTORICOS A NIVEL DISTRITAL:
Censo
PoblacinTotal
1,972
0
1,981
0
1,993
0
2,007
0
FUENTE: INEI-Censos Nacionales: 1972, 1981,1993 y 2007
Ecuacin :
Pf = A + B .t
Mnimos cuadrados :
y
27283
26919
19738
19500
93440
x
-35
-26
-14
0
-75
xy
-954905
-699894
-276332
0
-1931131
Determinacion de Coeficientes
-1752000
1406.25
b =
a =
23360
-18.75
Censos
1,972
1,981
1,993
2,007
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1.29
Ao
Censo
Aritmtico
Geomtrico
2,007
2,008
2,009
2,010
2,011
2,012
2,013
2,014
2,015
2,016
2,017
2,018
2,019
2,020
2,021
2,022
Sumatoria
Diferencia
19,500
19,752
20,006
20,264
20,526
20,791
21,059
21,330
21,606
21,884
22,167
22,453
22,742
23,036
23,333
23,634
344,082
-
19,500
19,483
19,466
19,450
19,433
19,416
19,399
19,382
19,366
19,349
19,332
19,315
19,298
19,282
19,265
19,248
309,985
(34,097)
19,500
19,581
19,661
19,743
19,824
19,906
19,988
20,071
20,153
20,237
20,320
20,404
20,488
20,573
20,658
20,743
321,849
(22,233)
Tasa ( % )
-0.15%
-1.32%
-0.82%
-2.22%
-1.06%
-0.09%
Tasa ( % )
r7
r8
r9
r10
=
=
=
=
-1.33%
-0.83%
-0.82%
-1.07%
Tasa ( % )
=== >
r 12
r11 =
Tasa ( % )
===>
1993
-1.15%
2007
19,738
19,913
23,907
22,011
28,311
22,898
19,738
-0.8%
Sumatoria
19,500
19,500
19,500
19,500
19,500
19,500
19,500
93,440
80,261
109,231
93,537
181,879
100,318
79,290
Diferencia
--13,179
15,791
97
88,439
6,878
14,150
23,977
22,048
22,044
22,944
22,080
23,226
19,500
19,500
19,500
19,500
19,500
19,500
Po =
r =
109,903
93,801
93,775
100,699
94,033
103,062
19,500 habitantes
-0.09 %
1985
1990
TIEMPO (Aos)
1995
2000
2005
2010
16,463
361
335
7,259
593
9,622
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
TIEMPO (Aos)
Poblacin urbana
27,283
26,919
19,738
19,500
Poblacin Rural
-27,283
-26,919
-19,738
-19,500
Tasa ( % )
-0.15%
-1.53%
-0.95%
-2.55%
-1.23%
-0.09%
Tasa ( % )
r7 =
r8 =
r9 =
r10 =
-0.76%
-0.72%
-0.49%
0.41%
Tasa ( % )
=== >
r11 =
x^2
t^2
1,225
676
196
0
2,097
r 12
-0.3%
xy
t * Pf
-155
-115
-60
0
-331
Tasa ( % )
===>
1993
-0.96%
2007
19,738
19,912
24,197
22,304
28,006
23,197
19,738
21,685
21,564
20,874
18,407
Sumatoria
19,500
19,500
19,500
19,500
19,500
19,500
19,500
19,500
19,500
19,500
19,500
93,440
80,228
106,257
94,112
133,903
99,713
79,282
90,366
89,644
85,619
72,307
Diferencia
--13,212
12,817
672
40,463
6,273
14,158
3,074
3,796
7,821
21,133
20,388
22,331
19,500
19,500
82,868
94,282
10,572
842
19,500 habitantes
0.41 %
1,980
1,985
1,990
1,995
2,000
2,005
TIEMPO (Aos)
Row 163
Row 164
Row 172
Row 173
Row 165
Row 166
Row 167
Row 168
Row 169
2,010
Poblacin urbana
27,283
26,919
19,738
19,500
1,980
1,985
Poblacin Rural
-27,283
-26,919
-19,738
-19,500
1,990
1,995
2,000
2,005
2,010
TIEMPO (Aos)
Row 163
Row 164
Row 172
Row 173
Row 165
Row 166
Det. Coef. =
Det. A =
Row 167
Row 168
Row 169
Determinacion de Coeficientes
2268
3829854
Det. B =
Det. C =
-3767649
-60261
Det. Coef. =
Det. A =
8190
159705000
Det. B =
Det. C =
-3826967
-57307
Det. Coef. =
Det. A =
10290
200655000
Det. B =
Det. C =
1233918
100632
Det. Coef. =
Det. A =
4368
85176000
Det. B =
Det. C =
1293236
97678
Tasa ( % )
A1
B1
C1
A2
B2
C2
A3
B3
C3
A4
B4
C4
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
Pf t ^ 2
19,500.00
-1,661.22
-26.57
19,500.00
-467.27
-7.00
19,500.00
119.91
9.78
19,500.00
296.07
22.36
t^3
t^4
0
3,868,648
18,197,244
33,421,675
0
(2,744)
(17,576)
(42,875)
0
38,416
456,976
1,500,625
55,487,567
(63,195)
1,996,017
nacion de Coeficientes
Det. Coef. =
Det. B =
Det. C =
1.920E+8
-1.300E+10
9.928E+8
Coeficientes
=== >
A5 =
B5 =
C5 =
19,500.00
-67.68
5.17
2007
19,500
19,500
19,500
19,500
19,500
19,500
Sumatoria
93,440
146,873
98,372
89,514
102,688
93,915
Diferencia
--53,433
4,932
3,926
9,248
475
19,500.00
(67.68)
5.17
TODO PARABOLICO
1980
1985
TIEMPO (Aos)
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Poblacin urbana
27,283
26,919
19,738
19,500
Poblacin Rural
-27,283
-26,919
-19,738
-19,500
x2
1225
676
196
0
2097
y2
744362089
724632561
389588644
380250000
2238833294
nacion de Coeficientes
690.75
-259.3282663771
18497.5950054289
Coeficientes
=== >
A5 =
B5 =
18,497.60
(259.33)
Exponencial
Modificado
19,500
18,238
17,979
17,720
17,460
17,201
16,942
16,682
16,423
16,164
15,904
15,645
15,386
15,126
14,867
14,608
265,845
(78,237)
Curva
Elegida
19,500
19,581
19,661
19,743
19,824
19,906
19,988
20,071
20,153
20,237
20,320
20,404
20,488
20,573
20,658
20,743
0.41%
25,000
20,000
POBLACION (Hab)
15,000
10,000
25,000
20,000
POBLACION (Hab)
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2,006
Censo
PoblacinTotal
1972
1981
1993
2007
2919
2290
1885
1774
Ecuacin :
Pf = Po ( 1 + r
t )
Tasa ( % )
1,981
1,993
2,007
1,993
2,007
2,007
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
r1 =
r2 =
r3 =
r4 =
r5 =
r6 =
1,972
1,972
1,972
1,981
Tasa ( % )
1,993
2,007
2,007
2,007
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
1,981
1,993
2,007
Pf = Po + Po i t
Pf
0
(14)
(26)
(35)
-75
r12 =
1,972
t Pf
1,774
1,885
2,290
2,919
8,868
-1.48%
1,972
t^2
0
(26,390)
(59,540)
(102,165)
(188,095)
Censos
1,981
0
196
676
1,225
2,097
1,993
Tasa
1972
Censo
1
2
3
4
5
6
-2.39%
-1.69%
-1.12%
-1.47%
-0.87%
-0.42%
1981
2,919
10,950
4,330
2,919
3,664
2,546
2,080
2,290
4,699
3,159
2,503
2,876
2,290
1,991
7
8
9
10
11
12
-1.87%
-1.26%
-1.18%
-0.91%
-1.29%
-1.48%
5,125
3,172
3,022
2,598
3,232
3,679
3,449
2,637
2,559
2,321
2,668
2,883
Curva seleccionada:
0.2
0.1
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
TIEMPO (Aos)
0.5
0.6
2 METODO GEOMETRICO
2.1 DATOS HISTORICOS A NIVEL DISTRITAL:
Censo
PoblacinTotal
1,972
0
1,981
0
1,993
0
2,007
0
FUENTE: INEI-Censos Nacionales: 1972, 1981,1993 y 2007
Ecuacin :
Pf = Po ( 1 + r ) ^ t
Tasa ( % )
1,981
1,993
2,007
1,993
2,007
2,007
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
r1
r2
r3
r4
r5
r6
=
=
=
=
=
=
1,972
1,972
1,972
1,981
Tasa ( % )
1,993
2,007
2,007
2,007
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
1,981
1,993
2,007
Censo
1,972
1,981
1,993
2,007
Poblacin
2,919
2,290
1,885
1,774
TOTAL
b= r=
x
t
-35
-26
-14
0
-75
y
Pf
3.47
3.36
3.28
3.25
13
0.01
-1.18%
Censos
1,972
1,981
1,993
2,007
Tasa
Censo
1972
----1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-2.66%
-2.06%
-1.41%
-1.61%
-0.98%
-0.43%
-2.00%
-1.26%
-1.10%
0.79%
1981
2,919
4,558
3,676
2,919
3,129
2,501
2,064
3,592
2,769
2,616
1,345
2,290
3,576
3,049
2,568
2,705
2,290
1,986
2,996
2,470
2,367
1,445
11
12
-1.08%
-1.18%
2,596
2,688
2,354
2,416
Curva seleccionada:
Po =
r =
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
0
TIEMPO (Aos)
3 METODO PARABOLICO:
3.1 DATOS HISTORICOS A NIVEL DISTRITAL:
Censo
1,972
1,981
1,993
2,007
PoblacinTotal
0
0
0
0
Pf = A + B
t + C
t^2
t^2
Pf
1
1
1
-35
-26
-14
1,225
676
196
2,919
2,290
1,885
1
1
1
-35
-26
0
1,225
676
0
2,919
2,290
1,774
1
1
1
-35
-14
0
1,225
196
0
2,919
1,885
1,774
1
1
1
-26
-14
0
676
196
0
2,290
1,885
1,774
1972
Censos
1981
1993
=== >
1972
1981
2007
=== >
1972
1993
2007
=== >
1981
1993
2007
=== >
Tasa ( % )
Pf = A + B t + C t ^ 2
Pf
t Pf
t^2
0
-14
-26
-35
1,774
1,885
2,290
2,919
0
(26,390)
(59,540)
(102,165)
0
196
676
1,225
-75
8,868
(188,095)
2,097
2097
(63,195)
-63195
Determinacion de Coeficientes
(55,045)
1,996,017
1,773,197
Censos
1972
1981
1993
2007
1972
1981
2,919
2,654
2,919
2,919
2,781
2,905
1
2
3
4
5
1993
2,290
2,025
2,290
2,348
2,290
2,322
1,885
1,620
1,811
1,885
1,885
1,859
Curva seleccionada:
A =
B =
C =
M ETODO PARABOLICO
8000
7500
7000
POBLACION (Hab)
6500
6000
5500
5000
4500
4000
1970
1975
Row 276
1980
Row 277
1985
Row 278
1990
TIEMPO (Aos)
Row 279
1995
Row 280
4 METODO EXPONENCIAL:
4.1 DATOS HISTORICOS A NIVEL DISTRITAL:
Censo
PoblacinTotal
1,972
0
1,981
0
1,993
0
2,007
0
FUENTE: INEI-Censos Nacionales: 1972, 1981,1993 y 2007
Ecuacin :
Pf = A + B .t
Mnimos cuadrados :
y
2919
2290
1885
1774
8868
x
-35
-26
-14
0
-75
2217
-18.75
xy
-102165
-59540
-26390
0
-188095
Determinacion de Coeficientes
-166275
1406.25
b =
a =
Censos
1,972
1,981
1,993
2,007
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0.41
Ao
Censo
Aritmtico
Geomtrico
2,007
2,008
2,009
2,010
2,011
2,012
2,013
2,014
2,015
2,016
2,017
2,018
2,019
2,020
2,021
2,022
2,023
Sumatoria
Diferencia
1,774
1,781
1,789
1,796
1,803
1,811
1,818
1,826
1,833
1,841
1,849
1,856
1,864
1,872
1,879
1,887
1,895
31,175
-
1,774
1,759
1,743
1,728
1,713
1,697
1,682
1,666
1,651
1,636
1,620
1,605
1,590
1,574
1,559
1,543
1,528
28,067
(3,108)
1,774
1,788
1,802
1,817
1,831
1,845
1,860
1,875
1,890
1,905
1,920
1,935
1,950
1,966
1,981
1,997
2,013
32,150
975
2,008
Censo
2,010
2,012
Aritmtico
2,014
TIEMPO (Aos)
Geomtrico
2,016
2,018
Parablico
asa ( % )
-2.39%
-1.69%
-1.12%
-1.47%
-0.87%
-0.42%
Tasa ( % )
r7
r8
r9
r10
=
=
=
=
-1.87%
-1.26%
-1.18%
-0.91%
Tasa ( % )
=== >
r 12
r11 =
Tasa ( % )
===>
1993
-1.48%
2007
1,885
2,668
2,322
2,104
2,235
2,018
1,885
-1.3%
Sumatoria
1,774
1,774
1,774
1,774
1,774
1,774
1,774
8,868
20,091
11,585
9,300
10,549
8,628
7,730
Diferencia
--11,223
2,717
432
1,681
240
1,138
2,402
2,153
2,125
2,031
2,164
2,237
1,774
1,774
1,774
1,774
1,774
1,774
Po =
r =
12,750
9,736
9,480
8,724
9,838
10,573
1,774 habitantes
-0.87 %
DO ARITM ETICO
0.4
TIEMPO (Aos)
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
3,882
868
612
144
970
1,705
Poblacin urbana
2,919
2,290
1,885
1,774
Poblacin Rural
-2,919
-2,290
-1,885
-1,774
asa ( % )
-2.66%
-2.06%
-1.41%
-1.61%
-0.98%
-0.43%
Tasa ( % )
r7 =
r8 =
r9 =
r10 =
-2.00%
-1.26%
-1.10%
0.79%
Tasa ( % )
=== >
r11 =
x^2
t^2
1,225
676
196
0
2,097
r 12
-1.1%
xy
t * Pf
-121
-87
-46
0
-254
Tasa ( % )
===>
1993
-1.18%
2007
1,885
2,588
2,374
2,165
2,226
2,035
1,885
2,353
2,120
2,072
1,588
Sumatoria
1,774
1,774
1,774
1,774
1,774
1,774
1,774
1,774
1,774
1,774
1,774
8,868
12,496
10,873
9,426
9,834
8,600
7,709
10,715
9,132
8,830
6,152
Diferencia
--3,628
2,005
558
966
268
1,159
1,847
264
38
2,716
2,066
2,095
1,774
1,774
8,790
8,973
1,774 habitantes
0.79 %
DO GEOM ETRICO
0
TIEMPO (Aos)
78
105
Poblacin urbana
2,919
2,290
1,885
1,774
Poblacin Rural
-2,919
-2,290
-1,885
-1,774
Det. Coef. =
Det. A =
Determinacion de Coeficientes
2268
4624242
Det. B =
Det. C =
79575
3903
Det. Coef. =
Det. A =
8190
14529060
Det. B =
Det. C =
141920
11710
Det. Coef. =
Det. A =
10290
18254460
Det. B =
Det. C =
88445
12145
Det. Coef. =
Det. A =
4368
7748832
Det. B =
Det. C =
26100
4338
Tasa ( % )
A1
B1
C1
A2
B2
C2
A3
B3
C3
A4
B4
C4
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
Pf t ^ 2
1,774.00
35.09
1.72
1,774.00
17.33
1.43
1,774.00
8.60
1.18
1,774.00
5.98
0.99
t^3
t^4
0
369,460
1,548,040
3,575,775
0
(2,744)
(17,576)
(42,875)
0
38,416
456,976
1,500,625
5,493,275
(63,195)
1,996,017
cion de Coeficientes
Det. Coef. =
Det. B =
Det. C =
1.920E+8
2.186E+9
2.398E+8
Coeficientes
=== >
A5 =
B5 =
C5 =
1,774.00
11.39
1.25
2007
Sumatoria
1,774
1,774
1,774
1,774
1,774
1,774
Diferencia
8,868
8,073
8,794
8,926
8,730
8,860
--795
74
58
138
8
1,774.00
11.39
1.25
DO PARABOLICO
1985
w 278
1990
TIEMPO (Aos)
Row 279
1995
Row 280
2000
Row 281
2005
Row 282
2010
Poblacin urbana
2,919
2,290
1,885
1,774
Poblacin Rural
-2,919
-2,290
-1,885
-1,774
x2
1225
676
196
0
2097
y2
8520561
5244100
3553225
3147076
20464962
cion de Coeficientes
690.75
-31.5888526963
1624.7090119435
Coeficientes
=== >
A5 =
B5 =
1,624.71
(31.59)
Exponencial
Modificado
1,774
1,593
1,562
1,530
1,498
1,467
1,435
1,404
1,372
1,340
1,309
1,277
1,246
1,214
1,182
1,151
1,119
23,473
(7,702)
Curva
Elegida
1,774
1,788
1,802
1,817
1,831
1,845
1,860
1,875
1,890
1,905
1,920
1,935
1,950
1,966
1,981
1,997
2,013
0.79%
POBLACIONAL
hquispe:
no se elige esta menor
diferencia por tener una
tendencia decreciente que n
refleja la tendencia de la
ciudad ...
POBLACIONAL
hquispe:
no se elige esta menor
diferencia por tener una
tendencia decreciente que n
refleja la tendencia de la
ciudad ...
2,014
TIEMPO (Aos)
Geomtrico
2,016
2,018
Parablico
2,020
Exponencial
2,022
2,024