REDRAWING THE CONSTITUENCIES

We have converted the geographical constituency map (left) into a diagramatic map (right) in order to give each seat equal size. This adjustment gives us a more accurate view of the political landscape though at the cost of geographical realism. With 74 seats, London appears larger than all of Scotland with its 59. Reshaping the map in this way means that your constituency might not appear where you would expect to find it
1

Lib Dem seats under threat
The Lib Dems deserve the reputation for being ‘sticky’, winning unwinnable seats and then steadily increasing their majorities, and so with the Clegg surge following the first debate, dislodging any of their sitting MPs looks much tougher than a month ago when at least a third of their 63 sitting MPs appeared vulnerable We have identified 12 seats where, on today’s standing of the parties, Labour supporters might wish to vote tactically to help the Liberal Democrats fend off a Tory threat (pink band). The remainder of Lib Dem seats do not have enough Labour strength to counter the Conservatives, and so Labour supporters shouldn’t bother (yellow band)
1

Tory seats that could go Lib Dem
6

16 19

These are now not nearly so safe as David Cameron’s strategists would have thought a month ago, as they expected to hold everything they had, and be hauling in another hundred plus
1

1

There are eight seats where on current levels of support a tactical vote by Labour could tip the balance to turn them into Liberal Democrat seats (yellow panel), while it is not worth voting for the Lib Dems in the seats highlighted in light blue in the list below

15 6 10 5 8 13 14 19 4 11

Tories’ top Labour targets...
...but now vulnerable to Lib Dem swing
When the Tories’ target list of 130 seats held by Labour was drawn up months ago, those requiring a swing of 5% and less were thought ‘in the bag’, and the ‘battleground seats’ needed between 5% and 9%. Now many could be ‘in play’ and vulnerable to a Lib Dem assault We have identified two which on today’s standing of the parties would be expected to go to the Liberal Democrats (strong yellow on panel below) and another 26 (pale yellow) where there is a chance they might win. In these seats Lib Dems should stick with their party in the hope that there is no further erosion between now and polling day. In another 12 in the table and in all other Labour held seats if they want to have Nick Clegg help Labour to stay in power after the election, no matter who leads Labour, they should cast a tactical vote for Labour to increase Labour’s chances of holding on to that seat
38 40 9 3 6

1

14

35

8 20 5 7 18 9 12 13 11

17 3 2 4 18 7 9

16 10 1 3 15 2

17 12

20

37 33 17 24 10

36 26 30

KEY

KEY

KEY

2 20 21 8 28 14 29 12 22 19

34 27 25 13 7 5 31 16 4 11 23 15 32 1 18

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

York Outer Eastleigh Carshalton & Wallington Portsmouth South Chippenham Argyll & Bute Truro & Falmouth Cheltenham Torbay Colchester Romsey & So’ton North

0.5 1.2 3.0 8.1 4.8 13.1 9.3 0.7 6.1 15.7 0.5

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Taunton Deane Somerton & Frome Brecon & Radnorshire Sheffield Hallam Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Oxford West & Abingdon Cornwall North Berwick Upon Tweed Bath

3.4 1.2 10.3 16.3 13.1 13.5 7.0 23.7 13.6

KEY

39

CONSTITUENCY

LIB DEM 2005 LEAD

CONSTITUENCY

LIB DEM 2005 LEAD

CONSTITUENCY Weston-Super-Mare Bournemouth West Wells Chelmsford Ludlow Harborough Devon Central Solihull Totnes Somerset North Suffolk South

TORY 2005 LEAD

CONSTITUENCY Meon Valley Broadland Norfolk South Poole Wantage Aldershot Devon West & Torridge Cambridgeshire South East Eastbourne

TORY 2005 LEAD

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

4.2 7.5 5.7 9.1 4.3 8.0 4.9 0.2 5.7 11.5 13.6

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

4.8 13.9 13.3 14.2 15.4 15.0 5.3 15.6 1.3

Local knowledge
Only three people in ten, living in marginal constituencies, know that they do so

Three-way battle
There are just three seats where our factoring in the impact of Clegg’s post-debate surge throws up a tough decision for Labour supporters, in St Albans (a), Reading East (b) and Filton & Bradley Stoke (c) Using the swing from when the election was called - when the standing of the parties was 38% Conservative, 30% Labour and just 20% for the Liberal Democrats - to 33% Tory, (down five), 27% Labour (down three), and 30% Lib Dem (up ten points), these three could all fall to Liberal Democrats, with Labour supporters voting power

1

Unusual seats
And then there are the quirky seats, eight of them, and in a very closely hung parliament, every vote will count. They are not in any way predictable on the uniform swing model

MAP CONSTITUENCY KEY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Ealing Central & Acton Northampton North Stirling Plymouth Sutton & Devonport Bristol North West Edinburgh South West Brentford & Isleworth Warrington South Colne Valley Pendle Southampton Test Luton South Bridgend Aberconwy Dulwich & West Norwood Exeter Blackburn Poplar & Limehouse Ipswich Nottingham South

LABOUR LIB DEM SWING 2005 LEAD REQUIRED

MAP CONSTITUENCY KEY 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 Wirral South Bedford Tooting Bradford West Gower Leeds North East Westminster North Nottingham East Dudley North Elmet & Rothwell Reading West Dover Keighley Warwick & Leamington Tynemouth Pudsey Morecambe & Lunesdale Bolton West Sefton Central Bolton North East

LABOUR LIB DEM SWING 2005 LEAD REQUIRED

2.2 9.0 10.9 11.1 5.7 16.5 8.3 9.2 2.5 5.3 19.2 14.7 17.9 3.9 19.7 17.3 19.4 10.8 11.8 19.2

3 1 1 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8

9.3 8.0 12.2 8.3 16.9 15.5 6.6 24.2 11.1 11.4 11.5 10.4 10.5 10.3 11.6 11.7 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.0

8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 17 14 15 16 19 15 19 13 21 12 12 16

Extra swing requiring tactical voting from Labour supporters

41
Tactical voting unlikely to help, vote Labour

Don’t know

30

Yes

7

KEY

Q: As far as you know, do you live in a marginal constituency? By marginal constituency I mean a constituency where the current MP has only a narrow majority

Swing achieved

CONSTITUENCY

1 Barking 2 Bethnal Green & Bow
a 5 2 6 1

Being targeted by BNP Won by Respect in 2005 Won by Ind Lab in 2005 Being targeted by Greens Speaker's seat - no major party candidates Respect 2nd in 2005 Being targeted by BNP Independent (KHHC)

3

8

3 Blaenau Gwent 4 Brighton Pavilion 5 Buckingham 6 East Ham 7 Stoke-on-Trent Central 8 Wyre Forest

c b

4

29
Party leaders
Gordon Brown is regarded highly for his leadership abilities and yet continues to suffer in wider popular opinion, raising interesting questions around what matters most to voters

No

The state of the parties
2005 GENERAL ELECTION RESULT 2010 GENERAL ELECTION PROJECTION (NOT FORECAST) CHANGE IN VOTING INTENTION SEATS WON IN 2005 STATE OF THE PARTIES SEATS SHORT OF OVERALL MAJORITY
N.B. BASED ON UNIFORM NATIONAL SWING

Con

Labour

Lib Dem

Other

N. Ireland seats

Lab-Con swing

Q: In choosing between Gordon Brown, David Cameron or Nick Clegg, who do you think...
...would be best in a crisis? ...is most capable?

An Ipsos MORI poll asked voters whether they liked or disliked the candidates both personally and politically. The results were condensed into a net percentage gain or loss. This is how they fared

33.2 2.0 209 283 -43

36.1 -9.4 349 249 -77

22.7 5.3 62 85

8.0 2.1 12 15

18 18 18 18

0.0 5.0

...best understands world problems?

+32
Clegg

35.2 26.7 28.0 10.1

33

12

6 10

33

17 5 10

14 23

6 11

Brown

Cameron

TORIES + LIB DEMS = 68 MAJORITY

LABOUR + LIB DEMS = 50 MAJORITY

40

36
• Brown • Cameron • Clegg • None • Don’t know

45

-28

-2
GRAPHIC: PETE GUEST
SOURCE: IPSOS MORI, REUTERS BASE: 1,018 ELECTORS 18+ IN MARGINAL SEATS, 23-26 APRIL 2010

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