11 views

Uploaded by azida90

Probability

save

- 0_uji Data Demografi_Lampiran 17
- Full TA Critical Review of the Observational Methodext 01
- Tema 01
- Bahan kuliah 3
- ISOM111Fall09_06sol
- UNIT I - Random Variables
- SSAE
- ABE Introduction to Quantitative Method
- Notes for BAyesian decision theory
- Tutorial+2+Mth3003
- njc probability lecture notes student edition
- feb 12 - 16 7th
- Appleby-Probabilities Are Single-case or Nothing (2005)
- S3 all
- Permutation Combination Probability
- 2
- 10 1 Probability
- Revision sheet for unit II.docx
- Assignment IV Probability
- Continous Distribution
- Quantitative Techniques for Management
- 5. Comp Networking- IJCNWMC- Paper to _IJCNWMC
- Statistics and Probability
- 64912 Rogerson Statistical Methods Intro
- burford-gradprojectfall2017
- Introduction to Probability Chapters1-12
- Intro to Probability Midterm 1
- Against the Gods-The Remarkable Story of Risk
- Causes of Contractors Failure in 4
- Statistical Methods
- Patient Satisfaction a Strategic Tool
- 3184041
- Antenatal Education and Postnatal Support Strategies
- Postgraduate Nurse Education
- The Personal Pain Plan
- Postpartum Safety
- Suspected Fetal Anomalies
- OBSTETRIC EMERGENCY _IN PRIMARY CARE.pptx
- Long Acting Contraception
- Iron Deficiency Anaemia
- Severity of Acute Pain After Childbirth, But Not Type of Delivery, Predicts Persistent Pain and Postpartum Depression
- PENYUSUAN Dari Perspektif Tauhid
- A Nurse Guide to Professional Boundaries
- Multiple Pregnancy
- Patient Satisfaction
- Improving Childbirth Practice for Parents to Be
- Shortening the Second Stage of Labor
- Childbirth Education Outcome
- Measures of Satisfaction With Care During Labour
- April 2012 Official
- Spontaneous Pushing to Prevent Postpartum Urinary Incontinence a Randomized, Controlled Trial
- Amalan Komunikasi Dan Status Pengetahuan Sikap Serta Amalan Kesihatan
- Regional Anesthesia and Analgesia for Labor and Delivery
- The Impact of Mothers’ Group Education on Labor Process
- Childbirth Education Then and Now
- Early Skin to Skin
- A Comparison of Perceptions of Labor and Delivery for First-time Mothers With and Without Prenatal Education
- Fetal Skull and Its Significant in Labor
- Effectiveness of Antenatal Care Package on Knowledge of Pregnancy Induced Hypertension
- Childbirth Education Outcome
- eBoost Street
- Monociclo MIPS-VHDL tercer entrega arquitectura de computadores
- Politzer 1939 Rationalisme LP
- Calculo SN
- Qué Es Física Cuántica
- NTU Composite Column
- Rotary Slips
- Lexico de Radiologia de La a-K Radiologia (2)-1
- TS Chap 10 : Cours sur les Lois de Probabilités
- Técnicas de Medidas de Condutividade,Permissívidade Elétrica e Permeabilidade Magnética Em Alta Frequência – Relativas à Faixa de Microondas.
- 01wget
- Actividad 3 Sistemas Lineales de Ecuaciones, Rectas, Planos y Espacios Vectoriales_208046_17
- K9142029077_084792A.103__20151118_125437
- Trabalho Felipe Linhas de Transmissao
- NTC CRITERIOS de la cdmx
- CHAPTER-3(1)Hydrology.doc
- PO1 Notas Aula
- BTD -QB
- Apuntes Curso de Investigación
- Ejercicios Propuestos (Ic-hipotesis)_clase 11-09-2015
- Chapt11 Lecture
- Drug Delivery Gels
- Organigramas TEMA 01
- newsoutl
- Aula 12 - Dissipacao Energia
- 314060995-Actividad-2-Tarea-Colaborativa-Final-1ra-Unidad-Mate-Financiera-2 (1).pdf
- Usando Gmdh Redes Neuronales Para Modelar La Potencia y El Par de Un Motor Stirling
- vhdl
- rn(57)
- Guideline for Heat Inactivation of HAV in Berries PDF

You are on page 1of 23

**Dr Azmi Mohd Tamil
**

Dept of Community Health

Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia

Sample Spaces

4

**A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes.
**

However, some sample spaces are better than others.

4

**Consider the experiment of flipping two coins. It is
**

possible to get 0 heads, 1 head, or 2 heads. Thus, the

sample space could be {0, 1, 2}. Another way to look

at it is flip { HH, HT, TH, TT }. The second way is

better because each event is as equally likely to occur

as any other.

4

**When writing the sample space, it is highly desirable
**

to have events which are equally likely.

but you can get a sum of 4 by rolling a 3-1. However. 11. 6. 4. The following table illustrates a better sample space for the sum obtain when rolling two dice. 5. each of these aren't equally likely. 12 }. 3. 8.Sample Spaces 4 Another example is rolling two dice. The only way to get a sum 2 is to roll a 1 on both dice. The sums are { 2. or 31. 9. 2-2. . 7. 10.

Example First Die 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Second Die 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 .

P(E) = n(E) / n(S) . 4 4 This gives us the formula for classical probability. if the events are equally likely.Classical Probability Sum Freq Relative Freq 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1 1/36 2/36 3/36 4/36 5/36 6/36 5/36 4/36 3/36 2/36 1/36 4 The relative frequency of a frequency distribution is the probability of the event occurring. The probability of an event occurring is the number in the event divided by the number in the sample space. however. This is only true.

Empirical Probability 4 Empirical probability is based on observation. The empirical probability of an event is the relative frequency of a frequency distribution based upon observation. 4 P(E) = f / n .

4 The probability of an event which must occur is 1.Probability Rules 4 All probabilities are between 0 and 1 inclusive 0 <= P(E) <= 1 4 The sum of all the probabilities in the sample space is 1 4 The probability of an event which cannot occur is 0.P(E) . P(E') = 1 . 4 The probability of an event not occurring is one minus the probability of it occurring.

.Mutually Exclusive Events 4 Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same time. 4 If two events are mutually exclusive . Mutually Exclusive : P(A and B) = 0 4 If two events are mutually exclusive. then the probability of them both occurring at the same time is 0. then the probability of either occurring is the sum of the probabilities of each occurring.

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) .Specific Addition Rule 4 Only valid when the events are mutually exclusive.

A and B are mutually exclusive A A' Total B 0 0.7 0.Example 1 4 Given: P(A) = 0.3 Total 0.20.8 1 .1 0.70.2 0. P(B) = 0.2 0.7 B' 0.

the intersection needs to be subtracted. To compensate for that double addition. When P(A) and P(B) are added. 4 General Addition Rule P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) . the probability of the intersection (and) is added twice. there is some overlap.P(A and B) .Non-Mutually Exclusive Events 4 In events which aren't mutually exclusive.

15 A A' Total B 0.25 0.70.Example 2 4 Given P(A) = 0.7 B' 0.20. P(B) = 0.55 0.15 0.05 0.8 1 .2 0.3 Total 0. P(A and B) = 0.

then the probability of them both occurring is the product of the probabilities of each occurring. Rolling the 2 does not affect the probability of flipping the head. 4 If events are independent.Independent Events 4 Two events are independent if the occurrence of one does not change the probability of the other occurring. 4 An example would be rolling a 2 on a die and flipping a head on a coin. .

Specific Multiplication Rule 4 Only valid for independent events P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B) .

P(B) = 0.2 0.14 0.56 0.06 0.8 1 .70.20.24 0.Example 3 4 P(A) = 0. A A' Total B 0.3 Total 0.7 B' 0. A and B are independent.

Dependent Events 4If the occurrence of one event does affect the probability of the other occurring. then the events are dependent. .

Conditional Probability 4The probability of event B occurring that event A has already occurred is read "the probability of B given A" and is written: P(B|A) 4 General Multiplication Rule P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B|A) .

8 1 .70.20.40 B 0.18 0.62 0. P(B|A) = 0.12 0.7 B' 0.2 0.3 Total 0.08 0.Example 4 4 P(A) A A' Total = 0. P(B) = 0.

P(B|A) = P(B) .P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B) 3.Independence Revisited 4 The following four statements are equivalent 1.P(A|B) = P(A) 4.A and B are independent events 2.

19 males smoke out of 60 males. . you're told that you have a smoker and asked to find the probability that the smoker is also male. Yes No Total Male 19 41 60 Female 12 28 40 Total 31 69 100 •What is the probability of a randomly selected individual being a male who smokes? This is just a joint probability. "Do you smoke?" was asked of 100 people.31666. it includes all the cases.19 •What is the probability of a randomly selected individual being a male? This is the total for male divided by the total = 60/100 = 0. this is a marginal probability. so 19/31 = 0.. Since no mention is made of smoking or not smoking. The number of "Male and Smoke" divided by the total = 19/100 = 0. •What is the probability that a randomly selected smoker is male? This time.60. you're told that you have a male . What is the probability that the male smokes? Well.6129 (approx) .31.think of stratified sampling.The question. the total who smoke divided by the total = 31/100 = 0. •What is the probability of a randomly selected individual smoking? Again. so 19/60 = 0.. Results are shown in the table. There are 19 male smokers out of 31 total smokers. since no mention is made of gender. •What is the probability of a randomly selected male smoking? This time.

05(0. and 10% of Chompieliens' product is defective.20 Total 0.934 0.50) = 0.30-0.020 = 0.30) = 0. 7% of Brochmailians' product is defective.There are three major manufacturing companies that make a product: Aberations.180 0.279 0.021 0. Aberations has a 50% market share.020 0. Brochmailians.025 0.20-0.50 Brochmailians 0.50-0.00 .30 Chompieliens 0. and Brochmailians has a 30% market share.475 0.021 = 0. 5% of Aberations' product is defective.07(0.20) = 0.025 = 0.066 •What is the probability a randomly selected product is defective? •What is the probability that a defective product came from Brochmailians? 1.10(0. This information can be placed into a joint probability distribution Company Good Defective Total Aberations 0. and Chompielians.

30)=0. 7%. but since the marginals must add to be 1. and 10% defective rates don't go into the table directly.066 •What is the probability that a defective product came from Brochmailians? P(Brochmailian|Defective) = P(Brochmailian and Defective) / P(Defective) = 0. The "good" probabilities can be found by subtraction as shown above.318 (approx).00. they have a 20% market share. or by multiplication using conditional probabilities.318 would have to equal the P(Brochmailians)=0.The percent of the market share for Chompieliens wasn't given. This is because they are conditional probabilities and the table is a joint probability table. •Are these events independent? No.93(0. but P(Defective|Brochmailians).025 would have to be P(Aberations)*P(Defective) = 0. If they were. 0. If 7% of Brochmailians' product is defective. •What is the probability a randomly selected product is defective? P(Defective) = 0. the P(Aberations and Defective)=0. but it doesn't.279. . then P(Brochmailians|Defective)=0. The joint probability P(Defective and Brochmailians) = P(Defective|Brochmailians) * P(Brochmailians).066=0. These defective probabilities are conditional upon which company was given.033.30. and it doesn't.50*0. the 7% is not P(Defective). That is.066 = 7/22 = 0. Also.021/0. then 93% is good. Notice that the 5%.

This is given in the problem. the part of D in B. and D instead of Aberations. C. P(D|B) is not a Bayes problem. Brochmailians. B.Bayes' Theorem Let's use the same example. ie: A. but shorten each event to its one letter initial. the part of D in A. Bayes' formula finds the reverse conditional probability P(B|D). It is based that the Given (D) is made of three parts. and the part of D in C. Chompieliens. P(B and D) P(B|D) = ----------------------------------------------------P(A and D) + P(B and D) + P(C and D) Inserting the multiplication rule for each of these joint probabilities gives P(D|B)*P(B) P(B|D) = -----------------------------------------------------------P(D|A)*P(A) + P(D|B)*P(B) + P(D|C)*P(C) . and Defective.

- 0_uji Data Demografi_Lampiran 17Uploaded byTUTIK SISWATI
- Full TA Critical Review of the Observational Methodext 01Uploaded byh
- Tema 01Uploaded byalexandru_bratu_6
- Bahan kuliah 3Uploaded byhidayatunnisa
- ISOM111Fall09_06solUploaded bygavinse
- UNIT I - Random VariablesUploaded byShubham Vishnoi
- SSAEUploaded byApril Rose Ramayan Luib
- ABE Introduction to Quantitative MethodUploaded byOrnellaNaliniJogie
- Notes for BAyesian decision theoryUploaded byJohn Josewa
- Tutorial+2+Mth3003Uploaded bynasonex91
- njc probability lecture notes student editionUploaded bybhimabi
- feb 12 - 16 7thUploaded byapi-389591300
- Appleby-Probabilities Are Single-case or Nothing (2005)Uploaded bybhpliao
- S3 allUploaded byGary Osborne
- Permutation Combination ProbabilityUploaded byd_r_a_c_o_2
- 2Uploaded byAnisa Berliana
- 10 1 ProbabilityUploaded byapi-25931785
- Revision sheet for unit II.docxUploaded byFor, rkl
- Assignment IV ProbabilityUploaded bykamaranj
- Continous DistributionUploaded byanil_singh_62
- Quantitative Techniques for ManagementUploaded byShiean Purpleyum
- 5. Comp Networking- IJCNWMC- Paper to _IJCNWMCUploaded byTJPRC Publications
- Statistics and ProbabilityUploaded byRaiza Joy Sarte
- 64912 Rogerson Statistical Methods IntroUploaded byMeenakshi Mohan
- burford-gradprojectfall2017Uploaded byapi-430812455
- Introduction to Probability Chapters1-12Uploaded byaseck_2
- Intro to Probability Midterm 1Uploaded byNghia Dam
- Against the Gods-The Remarkable Story of RiskUploaded byAmadaLibertad
- Causes of Contractors Failure in 4Uploaded byrasputin0780803494
- Statistical MethodsUploaded byGuruKPO

- Patient Satisfaction a Strategic ToolUploaded byazida90
- 3184041Uploaded byazida90
- Antenatal Education and Postnatal Support StrategiesUploaded byazida90
- Postgraduate Nurse EducationUploaded byazida90
- The Personal Pain PlanUploaded byazida90
- Postpartum SafetyUploaded byazida90
- Suspected Fetal AnomaliesUploaded byazida90
- OBSTETRIC EMERGENCY _IN PRIMARY CARE.pptxUploaded byazida90
- Long Acting ContraceptionUploaded byazida90
- Iron Deficiency AnaemiaUploaded byazida90
- Severity of Acute Pain After Childbirth, But Not Type of Delivery, Predicts Persistent Pain and Postpartum DepressionUploaded byazida90
- PENYUSUAN Dari Perspektif TauhidUploaded byazida90
- A Nurse Guide to Professional BoundariesUploaded byazida90
- Multiple PregnancyUploaded byazida90
- Patient SatisfactionUploaded byazida90
- Improving Childbirth Practice for Parents to BeUploaded byazida90
- Shortening the Second Stage of LaborUploaded byazida90
- Childbirth Education OutcomeUploaded byazida90
- Measures of Satisfaction With Care During LabourUploaded byazida90
- April 2012 OfficialUploaded byazida90
- Spontaneous Pushing to Prevent Postpartum Urinary Incontinence a Randomized, Controlled TrialUploaded byazida90
- Amalan Komunikasi Dan Status Pengetahuan Sikap Serta Amalan KesihatanUploaded byazida90
- Regional Anesthesia and Analgesia for Labor and DeliveryUploaded byazida90
- The Impact of Mothers’ Group Education on Labor ProcessUploaded byazida90
- Childbirth Education Then and NowUploaded byazida90
- Early Skin to SkinUploaded byazida90
- A Comparison of Perceptions of Labor and Delivery for First-time Mothers With and Without Prenatal EducationUploaded byazida90
- Fetal Skull and Its Significant in LaborUploaded byazida90
- Effectiveness of Antenatal Care Package on Knowledge of Pregnancy Induced HypertensionUploaded byazida90
- Childbirth Education OutcomeUploaded byazida90

- eBoost StreetUploaded byepyonic
- Monociclo MIPS-VHDL tercer entrega arquitectura de computadoresUploaded byJuan Pablo Gómez
- Politzer 1939 Rationalisme LPUploaded byjeanmariepaul
- Calculo SNUploaded byRicardo Novondo
- Qué Es Física CuánticaUploaded byCarlos Roldan
- NTU Composite ColumnUploaded bybsitler
- Rotary SlipsUploaded byMEREUEULEU
- Lexico de Radiologia de La a-K Radiologia (2)-1Uploaded bypractica uno
- TS Chap 10 : Cours sur les Lois de ProbabilitésUploaded byexos2math
- Técnicas de Medidas de Condutividade,Permissívidade Elétrica e Permeabilidade Magnética Em Alta Frequência – Relativas à Faixa de Microondas.Uploaded byedeinstein
- 01wgetUploaded byKenneth Paul
- Actividad 3 Sistemas Lineales de Ecuaciones, Rectas, Planos y Espacios Vectoriales_208046_17Uploaded byDiego F. Monroy
- K9142029077_084792A.103__20151118_125437Uploaded byKennedy Gakami Karionkei
- Trabalho Felipe Linhas de TransmissaoUploaded bySuely Bruno Ramalho
- NTC CRITERIOS de la cdmxUploaded byOrlando Castañeda
- CHAPTER-3(1)Hydrology.docUploaded bydoel.xyz
- PO1 Notas AulaUploaded byAdm Quarto Periodo
- BTD -QBUploaded byMatthew Smith
- Apuntes Curso de InvestigaciónUploaded byElver Luyo Valera
- Ejercicios Propuestos (Ic-hipotesis)_clase 11-09-2015Uploaded byIng Edwin Musayon
- Chapt11 LectureUploaded byAdar Os
- Drug Delivery GelsUploaded bynikki
- Organigramas TEMA 01Uploaded byAngeles Ramos
- newsoutlUploaded bypepito_perez_hell
- Aula 12 - Dissipacao EnergiaUploaded byJosé Ferreira
- 314060995-Actividad-2-Tarea-Colaborativa-Final-1ra-Unidad-Mate-Financiera-2 (1).pdfUploaded byAntonio Es Ram
- Usando Gmdh Redes Neuronales Para Modelar La Potencia y El Par de Un Motor StirlingUploaded byRonald Chiara
- vhdlUploaded byTeresa Greco
- rn(57)Uploaded byLorenzo Carrieri
- Guideline for Heat Inactivation of HAV in Berries PDFUploaded bymike