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7/6/2015 05:44

they face large losses in the not too distant future. complicated. And having read the IMF's new report. No doubt they thought that this would force the Greek government to cancel the referendum. Neither of the documents referred to are current.com/article/3303525-a-new-deal-for-greece Frances Coppola. But this too has now been superseded. Perhaps the No vote is best seen as a protest against seemingly unending depression. But there has been a much more interesting development in recent days. But the entire bailout programme expired on June 30th anyway. The day after the announcement. the report is highly critical of the current Greek government: But significant changes in policies since then-not least. more comprehensive debt sustainability analysis. 2015 11:22 PM ET | 54 comments | Includes: EU. FEU. turning in a resounding NO vote in Sunday's referendum. If Greece's creditors don't restructure the debt and refocus the programme on restoring growth. The EU negotiators withdrew the June 25th offer as soon as the referendum was announced. The report undermines the EU creditors' entire case. unemployment and misery. turning in a resounding No vote in Sunday's referendum. lower primary surpluses and a weak reform effort that will weigh on growth and 7/6/2015 05:44 . So the Greeks have rejected an offer that no longer exists. The UK's Telegraph published this translation from Greek Analyst: And the paper asked. The second document referred to on the ballot paper is the fudged debt sustainability analysis that accompanied the June 25th offer. Though exactly what they have rejected is unclear.A New Deal For Greece | Seeking Alpha 2 of 19 http://seekingalpha. On first reading. frankly. the IMF produced another. They were wrong. Allegedly this was because European members of the IMF board objected to its publication prior to the referendum. 5. replacing it with a subtly altered version from the "institutions" and dangling the carrot of debt restructuring if Greeks vote to accept the terms. Perhaps the No vote is best seen as a protest against seemingly unending depression. rendering the June 25th offer obsolete. It wasn't published until July 2nd. though it will undoubtedly annoy Greece's creditors. Coppola Comment (70 clicks) Profile| Send Message| Follow (137 followers) A New Deal For Greece Jul. The ballot paper is. "Does this make sense to you?" No. it doesn't. It appears that the Greeks have given a bloody nose to the EU. unemployment and misery. GREK by: Frances Coppola Summary It appears that the Greeks have given a bloody nose to the EU. I'm not surprised. to say the least. I have considerable sympathy for this.

There is some truth in this. among other things.be it sovereign or private . A programme that is unable to meet any of its targets right from the start is not fit for purpose. the more they owe". Both of these are actually symptomatic of a severe demand squeeze caused by sharply falling real incomes. The continuing fall in GDP makes the debt burden bigger. while deflation makes it more difficult to pay off. Fisher's short paper "The Debt Deflation Theory of Great Depressions" describes how a debt crisis . a qualified and highly experienced project manager .I would have questioned the scope and assumptions long ago. Fisher describes it thus: "The more the debtors pay.5 percent of GDP. Nor did the previous one. And he explains how devastating the effects can be: (click to enlarge) What we have seen in Greece in recent years is a fine example of this.A New Deal For Greece | Seeking Alpha 3 of 19 http://seekingalpha. it makes matters worse. But embedded in the text (p. And as Irving Fisher reminds us. These charts prove that he is right. In fact these charts from the IMF's report show that the programme had failed to meet targets from the start: (click to enlarge) In 2013 the growth target was missed by a mile on the downside and the primary balance was also slightly below target. of debt coming down to 124 percent of GDP in 2020 and to "substantially below" 110 percent of GDP in 2022.becomes an economic disaster. deflation need not be a problem at all. Fisher says that it is the combination of high debt with deflation that is particularly toxic. On the contrary. Written at the height of the US Great Depression. and a debt crisis may be quickly resolved. True. austerity is not the right medicine for a debt deflation. Coming on top of the very high existing debt.4) is this admission that the programme was ALREADY off track before Syriza came to power: The 2014 primary fiscal balance fell short of the program target by 1. Greece's economic performance has significantly declined under the present government. This conclusion holds whether one examines the stock of debt under the November 2012 framework or switches the focus to debt servicing or gross financing needs. That is a considerable shortfall. Blaming the present government entirely for the failure to meet programme targets is thus unjustified.com/article/3303525-a-new-deal-for-greece privatization-are leading to substantial new financing needs. mostly due to the uncertainty caused by its attempt to renegotiate the terms of the current programme. Or. a toxic spiral develops. Yanis Varoufakis says Greece is in "debt deflation". Greece's economy has experienced a collapse on a similar scale to that in the US in 1929-32: 7/6/2015 05:44 . But inadequate reforms do not fully explain Greece's terrible growth performance. by monetary tightness caused by very high real interest rates and no monetary offset from the ECB. The slippage has principally been blamed on the Greeks not implementing the agreed reforms.and I am. It amounts to the same thing. Nor do they explain the deflation shown in the right-hand chart. By itself. These were above the thresholds agreed to in November 2012. these new financing needs render the debt dynamics unsustainable. But when over-indebtedness is combined with deflation. But if I were running this programme . This programme has NEVER met its targets. And this was on top of the slippage identified in the previous programme review: Debt/GDP was projected to fall from 175 percent of GDP at end-2013 to about 128 percent of GDP in 2020 and further to 117 percent of GDP in 2022. if you like.

A New Deal For Greece | Seeking Alpha 4 of 19 http://seekingalpha. the damage to Greece's already weak supply side in recent years. So unless Eurozone creditors agree to a huge extension of existing maturities and concessions on interest payments. If the medium-term primary surplus target were to be reduced to 2½ percent of GDP. nevertheless. Doubling the maturity and grace on existing EU loans and offering similar concessional terms on new borrowing. The IMF's Q&A on alternative scenarios is revealing. The second of these is highly unlikely: real incomes for Greek households are falling sharply. costly market financing is replacing highly subsidized official sector financing. unemployment and starvation. real GDP growth of 1½ percent in steady state. Greece must therefore run a substantial trade surplus to have any chance at all of meeting these targets. this means that the private sector really doesn't want the Greek debt it unloaded on to the public sector back any time soon. would be vital to preserve gross financing needs within a safe range-the average GFN during 2015-2045 would be 11¼ percent of GDP. And this is where the fun starts. In such a scenario. This. Or indeed ever. As FT Alphaville's Joseph Cotterill puts it. Greek businesses are understandably unwilling to borrow to invest and Greek banks have high and rising proportions of non-performing loans on their balance sheets.. and more realistic privatization proceeds of about €½ billion annually-debt servicing would rise and debt/GDP would plateau at very high levels (see Figure 4i).. The IMF has now admitted that watering down the primary surplus targets makes the debt unsustainable: In particular. given Greece's long-standing competitiveness problem. Greece's debt would remain above 100 percent of GDP for the next three decades. The IMF concedes that these targets are unachievable in practice. debt would still be unsustainable even with a persistent primary surplus of 3% of GDP for decades. And it succeeded in this aim. Crikey. say because this is all that the Greek authorities could credibly commit to. the provision of concessional financing for a prolonged period (10 years) would keep the GFN stable and below the 15-percent threshold over the next three decades. the first objective of the present Greek government was to get the primary surplus targets reduced. as in the US's Great Depression. But even these new policy targets are unrealistic. is economically illiterate. and the fact that it is locked into the Euro at far too high a real exchange rate. For still lower primary surpluses or growth. if primary surpluses or growth were lowered as per the new policy package-primary surpluses of 3. debt servicing and debt/GDP rises unsustainably. And it wouldn't make much of a dent in Greece's debt/GDP anyway. the chances of this are very low. either the external sector or the private sector must be in deficit. as specified above. lowering the primary surplus target even further in this lower growth environment would imply unsustainable debt dynamics.5 percent of GDP. on growth: What if growth were lower-closer to the historical pattern of about 1 percent per year? . Gross financing needs and debt-to-GDP would surge owing to the need to pay for the fiscal relaxation of 1 percent of GDP per 7/6/2015 05:44 . Frankly.. then in addition to concessions and rescheduling there would have to be actual losses for Eurozone governments who made the mistake of bailing Greece out in 2010: However. it did not manage to persuade the creditors to consider further debt relief. The 2012 programme makes no attempt to restore the Greek economy. Rather. So even real GDP growth of 1% per annum is a tall order. First.. it envisaged Greece running primary surpluses of over 4% of GDP for many years from 2016 onwards and achieving the highest TFP growth in the Euro area. for an economy as deeply depressed as Greece. it is narrowly focused on achieving debt sustainability. over time. And if primary surpluses were much lower than this. To achieve this. Unsurprisingly. we might not now be in this dreadful situation. then the debt-to-GDP trajectory would be unsustainable even with the 10-year concessional financing assumed in the previous scenario. about that primary surplus: What if primary surplus targets could not exceed 3 percent of GDP over the medium term? In that case. and the primary surpluses are insufficient to offset the difference. This implies that either Greece must also run a substantial trade surplus or Greek households and businesses must take on debt. The decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio.Real GDP growth of about 1 percent would still require strong assumptions about labor market dynamics and structural reforms that yield TFP growth at the average of euro area countries. The debt dynamics are unsustainable because as mentioned above. But crucially. Now.com/article/3303525-a-new-deal-for-greece (click to enlarge) And in Greece today. It was never remotely achievable and I think the worse of both the IMF and the previous Greek government for agreeing to such targets. debt deflation is accompanied by bankruptcies. For a sovereign to run a substantial primary surplus AND achieve positive growth. Had it supported the Greek government in its efforts to bring debt sustainability to the negotiating table. For this the IMF must bear much of the blame. would be very gradual.

that future may be closer than they think.Unfollow | Send Message 7/6/2015 05:44 . 11:49 PMReplyLike15 Harm Elderman . But in reality. for instance.. the Greek government had already won. premium contributor Comments (1186) | + Follow Following .1 billion) or any other similar operation. The debt-to-GDP ratio would decline immediately. any substantial deviation from the package of reforms under consideration-in the form of lower primary surpluses and weaker reforms-would require substantially more financing and debt relief. premium contributor Comments (13954) | + Follow Following . Jun 30 Mario Draghi And The Holy Grail Thu. The message from the IMF to the EU negotiators is clear: "We've had enough of this. Indeed. Jun 4 An Anthem For Europe Tue.Unfollow | Send Message I must admit that i have read quite a lot about Greece and must say that this article is one of the best. and attempts to make it payable through harsh austerity only make matters worse. Share this article with a colleague Tweet Like Share 16 About this article Expand Collapse More articles by Frances Coppola » Never Mind Greece. 5 Jul.. but "flattens" afterwards amid low economic growth and reduced primary surpluses. the IMF suggests that as Greece's debt is nearly all held by the official sector. contributor . Jun 10 Oh Dear.com/article/3303525-a-new-deal-for-greece year with new borrowing at market terms. Greece's official creditors must now construct a New Deal for Greece. full write-off of the stock outstanding in the GLF facility (€53. Glad to see a NEW author who get's it ! Please keep up the good work. a haircut would be needed. along with extended concessional financing with fixed interest rates locked at current levels. Jun 2 Comments (54) Register or Login to rate comments » Interesting Times . In such a case.. Professor Sinn. they face large losses in the not too distant future.. A lower medium-term primary surplus of 2½ percent of GDP and lower real GDP growth of 1 percent per year would require not only concessional financing with fixed interest rates through 2020 to cover gaps as well as doubling of grace and maturities on existing debt but also a significant haircut of debt. nevertheless. are able to bring the GFN-to-GDP trajectory back to safe ranges for the next three decades. Thus. In their own interests. there is no systemic risk and hence no reason for the IMF to involve itself any further in a programme which has no chance whatsoever of returning Greece's debt/GDP to a sustainable level. Jun 18 Bringing Back The Griffin Wed.A New Deal For Greece | Seeking Alpha 5 of 19 http://seekingalpha. debt that can't be paid won't be.. To make matters worse. The stock and flow treatment. Restructure this debt NOW or we are out. contributor ." The result of the Greek referendum gives democratic legitimacy to the Greek government's demands for debt restructuring and relaxation of programme targets. thanks to the IMF belatedly applying its own rules.. given the damage done to the Greek economy by the bank closure and capital controls. If Greece's creditors don't restructure the debt and refocus the programme on restoring growth. In the end.. possibly another article as a follow up for those who don't understand the ramifications as to how bad this really is. Thu. Look At China Tue.

Instead of looking hard at who and what brought Greece to its predicament since Karamanlis took over from Papadopoulos in 1974. 11:54 PMReplyLike7 sphereless . In the end. 6 Jul.. thanks to the IMF belatedly applying its own rules.Unfollow | Send Message You are dealing with a government that will not allow the regulation reform for economic growth.com/article/3303525-a-new-deal-for-greece Ow come on. Culturally Greece has shown their cards by electing a communist government. they probably won't get it back no matter how this plays out. debt that can't be paid won't be. 05:17 AMReplyLike0 jyard01 .A New Deal For Greece | Seeking Alpha 6 of 19 http://seekingalpha. The Greek Government had won? If they consider Greece deteriorating at rocket speed with a middle class which will be wiped out (what's left of it). Do we really know how all this debt is going to play out? And the Krugmanites still say pile it on? The same experts who got us into the debt game keep crying for more. the electorate has once again voted for a sentimental journey." . Its economy has always been weak in Europe. I am so worn out by the word "austerity". 5 Jul. then oh yes Greece definitely won. The creditors will never get a their money back with out playing hardball. but to throw more money after bad makes no sense.. Too bad. If they consider all that a victory (!?). the Germans need to cut their losses and try and make an example to deter the rest of the Southern neighbors. Greece is doomed for decades.Unfollow | Send Message 7/6/2015 05:44 . premium contributor Comments (176) | + Follow Following . In my view. contributor . Usually those that throw it around are inclined to endless government spending regardless of the value one gets from allocating those funds. premium contributor Comments (257) | + Follow Following . but now. but so be it. poverty will increase. contributor .. a bank system which will fail at any moment. 12:20 AMReplyLike4 shaxmatist1 . 11:56 PMReplyLike10 Andreas Hopf . it's like a boat without an engine on the middle of the ocean... 5 Jul." The Tsipras-Varoufakis administration is all about regaining "dignity" after "oppression" by "terrorist" forces. "But in reality. and attempts to make it payable through harsh austerity only make matters worse. contributor . premium contributor Comments (193) | + Follow Following .Unfollow | Send Message One of the best summaries of the greek situation I have read. They have been presented with a 'lose/lose' situation by the EU Commission. Drifting forever. the Greek government had already won. 6 Jul. unemployment will get a lot worse than it already is and so forth a victory. They also assign the word to any cut in the growth of spending. spending is not going down anywhere. contributor .Unfollow | Send Message "You are dealing with a government that will not allow the regulation reform for economic growth. premium contributor Comments (11057) | + Follow Following .

let their pensions disappear. 6 Jul. 12:07 AMReplyLike12 justaminute .go ahead. Hard and painful.Unfollow | Send Message Greece has defaulted.Unfollow | Send Message Sure that would be a great path to follow!!! One question though: Who's on the hook for all Greek Counterparty Credit Risk sitting on banks' balance sheets in various EU countries? NOT ME 6 Jul. It's a message that needs to be sent not so much to the greeks. Cuts demanded by the Troika only serve to reduce government revenue. Greece needs to be flogged. we'll support you anyway. Cut them off the grid. Tough love but thats the road they chose in yesterdays referendum. 6 Jul.A New Deal For Greece | Seeking Alpha 7 of 19 http://seekingalpha. If the cost if a tens of thousands of Greek lives. 03:29 AMReplyLike2 Amouna . it's cheaper than contagion that would happen in rest of Europe and US. contributor . insulted . premium contributor Comments (917) | + Follow Following . contributor . premium contributor Comments (236) | + Follow Following . Thats basically an open invitation to Italy to default on their debts as well . For the good of the rest of Europe. premium contributor Comments (1931) | + Follow Following . contributor . May I suggest you read more and speak less? 6 Jul. but more importantly to bigger debtor nations .if you dont pay your debts. premium contributor Comments (983) | + Follow Following . harassed.in fact Greeks need to be starved. Pain for Greece has just started . Your suggestion that the government of Greece is 'communist' is utter crap. you will suffer. 04:55 AMReplyLike0 yestoeverything . EU. Economics 101 says that you cannot austerity yourself out of massive debt. Spain (even USA for that matter). The worst outcome would be to mumble and shuffle feet then just keep throwing more money at Greece. The message needs to be clear . 05:17 AMReplyLike0 RM13 .weeds of socialism and marxism sprouting from Hellenic peninsula need to be exterminated. contributor . dont pay your debts.Unfollow | Send Message 7/6/2015 05:44 . the Germans need to cut off the money taps going to Greece.com/article/3303525-a-new-deal-for-greece I agree. Might as well cut losses and move on.Italy. Current left wing government has no intention of putting together a plan that would stimulate growth or create green shoots.Unfollow | Send Message Hogwash. let their banks fail.

. However. 12:23 AMReplyLike0 6228371 . It seems like there is a good chance for Greece to be kicked out of the Eurozone. but doubt that is in the cards. America gets QE and Greece gets austerity. Otherwise disaster is likely to occur. http://bit.Unfollow | Send Message A well-written article. 6 Jul. it basically blames Greece's problems on everyone except Greece. 12:17 AMReplyLike9 Interesting Times . Someone should have sent Greek officials some of these as a reminder of what might happen if Greece leaves the Euro.. premium contributor Comments (236) | + Follow Following . premium contributor Comments (650) | + Follow Following .Unfollow | Send Message @LUCKY Why can't we blame the creditors ? After all they did lend the money.Unfollow | Send Message It is crazy that Greece voted no. what do you think will happen? Imo it is likely they will need even greater austerity than they would have needed by staying in the Eurozone. contributor . premium contributor Comments (5677) | + Follow Following ..ly/1BeAdKq 6 Jul. 6 Jul. 05:31 AMReplyLike0 luckylalo . 6 Jul. premium contributor Comments (13954) | + Follow Following .Unfollow | Send Message Greece has not defaulted. Sad to see you take some glee in the suffering of your fellow human beings. So what did they use as an excuse to lend more? As some have posted "just cut your losses and move on". others will line up with a pen asking 7/6/2015 05:44 . When Greece has its own currency.com/article/3303525-a-new-deal-for-greece I agree.interesting. contributor . yes. contributor . Only the creditor can declare a default.A New Deal For Greece | Seeking Alpha 8 of 19 http://seekingalpha. It isn't that easy. Currently Greece is in arrears. 05:07 AMReplyLike0 yestoeverything . if it were this would have been over 6 years ago !! You give them a break. and like i have posted. contributor .

This vote and its results leads to a lose-lose scenario for the entire world. there culture is turning much faster to the left then the US's most Democrat state). 01:59 AMReplyLike1 Rainbow Investments . But what scares me is the potential for an angry mob mentality to blame the rest of Europe instead of their government and then spiral deeply left and voila. etc. contributor . 6 Jul.Unfollow | Send Message The only way to prevent the Euro from unravelling is to make a strong example out of Greece by kicking them out of the Eurozone. I think the author covered quite a few areas in short order. The Spain. None of this ends well. 12:31 AMReplyLike1 justaminute .Unfollow | Send Message One can only hope that the adults do kick Greece out of the Euro. you have a European Venezuela. You cannot have a welfare state that isn't heavily supported by industry. Europe is swamped in labor regulations that make California look like an Ayn Rand dream state (you can't fire anyone. nor should it. I bet we see Portugal turning hard left politically next which will create another Greece like negotiation. their benefits and pensions are ludicrous.com/article/3303525-a-new-deal-for-greece where do they sign for the extension/write down ? No. 50 year and 100 year bonds seem to be becoming a nice vehicle to kick cans down the road. I truly feel bad for the 40% of Greeks who understand the issue is with their own society and government structure. and in a possible follow up as i suggested. 6 Jul. contributor . premium contributor Comments (917) | + Follow Following . 01:00 AMReplyLike6 aretailguy . 6 Jul. The worst thing they can do is open the door to all the other Southern pals. Yeah it's a lot. premium contributor Comments (193) | + Follow Following . BOTH sides need to be careful. contributor 7/6/2015 05:44 . Don't feel to sorry for the Greeks.Unfollow | Send Message They are both to blame. 12:45 AMReplyLike1 sphereless . The euro is and was a bad idea from my perspective. It will not change the outcome at some point. and it's not going to be pretty.. contributor . Lots of unrest for decades to come in that scenario. could keep us informed. premium contributor Comments (1444) | + Follow Following . about creating wealth and turning up the freedom and turning down the central planning. but 30 year. But make no mistake. Hopefully the Greeks and their other Euro pals learn a lesson about borrowing and lending. but since rule of law was thrown out the window by all parties involved a while back and the Greeks currently have a communist government probably a good idea to cut your losses. I hope this becomes a series since the Author seems to be spot on !! 6 Jul. then Italy. 6 Jul. 12:52 AMReplyLike3 J Mintzmyer . contributor .. premium contributor Comments (4970) | + Follow Following . this is going to be a blue print for something down the road. the folks here in the USA will be facing these questions soon my friend. the people are going to suffer.A New Deal For Greece | Seeking Alpha 9 of 19 http://seekingalpha.Unfollow | Send Message Anyone can blame anyone they want.

They have too much to lose. 12:19 AMReplyLike2 Interesting Times .. Having Greece bring economic devastation to the rest of Europe will no longer be tolerated. and the aid to Greece to dry up. ' Imo the Euro is likely to rally quite a bit from here as people expect Greece to be kicked out of the Eurozone. 05:16 AMReplyLike0 justaminute . Is this the canary we have been waiting for ? Many unanswered questions. 05:06 AMReplyLike0 6228371 . The Portuguese implemented a lot of austerity measures and paid the debt to the creditors. The ‘southern pals’ are not made equal. Imo the Euro and gold are likely to rally quite a bit this week." Agreed.com/article/3303525-a-new-deal-for-greece . This could get very ugly worldwide..Unfollow | Send Message The creditors will cave. It all continues until some force 7/6/2015 05:44 . At least the rest of Europe has decided they won't be held captive any longer by Greece. Tonight. contributor . i read quite a few articles that were either dead wrong on the vote. contributor . or merely scratched the surface on the ramifications of what lies ahead.A New Deal For Greece | Seeking Alpha 10 of 19 http://seekingalpha. 6 Jul.Unfollow | Send Message "This could get very ugly worldwide. 6 Jul. contributor .Unfollow | Send Message I can assure you that there is little sympathy in Portugal for leftist ideas like the ones that took the Greeks where they are now.Unfollow | Send Message @J I agree in the long run the creditors will restructure.Unfollow | Send Message "This vote and its results leads to a lose-lose scenario for the entire world. 12:25 AMReplyLike1 justaminute . premium contributor Comments (27) | + Follow Following . while i was watching the USA win it's soccer game. Does it start an avalanche of others ? Does it run over the EU ? This seems like a lose/lose situation which makes it very scary. premium contributor Comments (5677) | + Follow Following . 6 Jul. But the current "leadership" in the world knows nothing other that endless printing and debt to solve any issue.. premium contributor Comments (917) | + Follow Following . premium contributor Comments (917) | + Follow Following . But here's the rub. contributor . 6 Jul. premium contributor Comments (13954) | + Follow Following . I truly feel bad for the 40% of Greeks who understand the issue is with their own society and government structure..

Maybe this bubble can be way more severe then the last one? Again. This is just another step toward the resolution. the left-wing government will not do this. 6 Jul.Unfollow | Send Message Written by a true analyst. 12:44 AMReplyLike1 Interesting Times . 01:21 AMReplyLike0 Harm Elderman ." may not be correct. . premium contributor Comments (2787) | + Follow Following . If they do. as i stated here or in another article.Unfollow | Send Message I think the creditors don't really give a rat's ass about Greece. but exactly the way Greece wants it . contributor . Not by investigative journalists. and not how Europe wants it. premium contributor Comments (13954) | + Follow Following . It is little different than any bubble that has occurred in history.. That is why i invited all of you to drop over on my blog so that this discussion can continue until we burnt it to death. Europe should cut all funding to Greece and wait and see what they come up with on their own. contributor . the IMF and/or WB re-structured the Third World Debts a few decades ago. 05:08 AMReplyLike0 aarc . contributor . Some don't even think we have a bubble.If memory serves right. Greece shut themselves in the foot with this NO. Darkest before dawn for Greece? 6 Jul. They will have to pay back .A New Deal For Greece | Seeking Alpha 11 of 19 http://seekingalpha. they can start paying back that money we have given them. were all GUESSING as to how severe it will be. and eventually you could postpone it for a few years but a most likely scenario is to keep them on a leash.. 6 Jul.com/article/3303525-a-new-deal-for-greece beyond the control of the money printers brings it to a halt. 6 Jul.. This debt/credit bubble will be brought to an end by an unseen\unpredicted event or series of events resulting in pain for everyone.Unfollow | Send Message @JYour preaching to the choir !! Now your comment "It is little different than any bubble that has occurred in history. premium contributor Comments (1186) | + Follow Following .. They rather have money. The country needs reforms. 12:20 AMReplyLike1 7/6/2015 05:44 .. Viola! Those former Third World countries are now what we call the Developing Countries and their economies have improved massively they are now fondly called the 'Emerging Markets'. They were in such a tight bind that I was expecting they would never be able to recover from massive debt and decades-long recessions and stagnant economies.

premium contributor Comments (4970) | + Follow Following . they need to exit the Euro and deal with the consequences. or Italy continue to try to reform their structural issues? The Greek vote places the Eurozone in an awkward position. of the spiraling dependence on government spending to keep the economy even slightly stable?" Exactly." 7/6/2015 05:44 . http://bit. decimate Greece or turn the entire Euro into a sham/joke. When will the debtors take responsibility for their failed system? Greece's no vote must lead to a final deal proposal. 6 Jul. I say give them the Drachma. 12:40 AMReplyLike7 Andreas Hopf . and I truly hope the best for them.A New Deal For Greece | Seeking Alpha 12 of 19 http://seekingalpha. but the conclusion and tone is a bit disturbing. contributor . Ireland. If Greece refuses to cooperate.Unfollow | Send Message "Where is the discussion of Greece's excessive pension program. Perhaps I'm reading this incorrectly. 12:33 AMReplyLike1 J Mintzmyer . If Greece gets a free pass due to their "middle finger. premium contributor Comments (279) | + Follow Following . If they don't get their act together." then why should Spain. Unfortunately I think we'll see a European Argentina. Although if the majority of the Greek populace probably didn´t understand what they were voting for given that the ballot document was out-dated/overly-complex. of the spiraling dependence on government spending to keep the economy even slightly stable? Sometimes we can rationally blame creditors for being unfair or for providing deceptive financial instruments. but it seems to be another case of blaming creditors for the poor decisions of the debtors. Portugual.com/article/3303525-a-new-deal-for-greece fritz68 . does the referendum really give ´democratic legitimacy´ to the Greek government´s demands? Reminds me of the Scottish independence referendum last year when the economic realities (such as a massive discrepancy between projected and real oil revenues even without the collapse in the price of oil) were almost swept aside by emotional bravado and blind nationalism. premium contributor Comments (11057) | + Follow Following . of its ineffective tax structure. contributor .ly/1LNa7kb 6 Jul. Greece voted no. a European Venezuela. housing market issued to non-qualified buyers by bankers who fudged the paperwork. contributor . Where is the discussion of Greece's excessive pension program. such as the subprime ARMs in the U.S.Unfollow | Send Message Very good article. of its ineffective tax structure. If they don't get their act together. a European Venezuela. "Unfortunately I think we'll see a European Argentina.Unfollow | Send Message The write-up itself is sharp.

03:09 AMReplyLike1 Andreas Hopf . Except this seems to be the game creditors are playing with governments. And then when all is wrong. Seems to me that Europe never learned. premium contributor Comments (9998) | + Follow Following . 6 Jul. and demanded payment for WWI. premium contributor Comments (27) | + Follow Following . 12:43 AMReplyLike0 Andreas Hopf . 6 Jul. decade after decade.com/article/3303525-a-new-deal-for-greece Spot on. contributor . in a spiritual sense.Unfollow | Send Message Exactly. and how it is repaid next time we start financing 'extended growth' by stealing money from the future. hence it never left.Unfollow | Send Message 7/6/2015 05:44 . premium contributor Comments (5823) | + Follow Following . They left the eurozone. The Rhineland was Germany's manufacturing center. It is chronic now. contributor . They're fine. We need to normalize interest rates but cannot do it without what is called in this article 'unnecessary suffering'. feels like. 12:53 AMReplyLike2 Michael Clark .Unfollow | Send Message Why not go like Iceland did? They defaulted. If I am correct.and be aware of what (karmic) debt looks like.A New Deal For Greece | Seeking Alpha 13 of 19 http://seekingalpha. they find a Hero and act like crazy nationalists. 12:57 AMReplyLike8 shaxmatist1 . France took the Rhineland from Germany. which. and toxic. We are in the midst of a huge debt deflation all over the world. 6 Jul. contributor . premium contributor Comments (176) | + Follow Following . sink foreign aid and development funds into the pockets of cronies. nepotists and oligarchs. 05:12 AMReplyLike0 Michael Bryant . is a sin. Keep pumping loans to anyone who asks for a loan. 6 Jul. fine if they pay the loan back. We need to be aware of what we are doing -. We think we can survive this without pain by debasing the currency. 6 Jul. 6 Jul. contributor . But it is not working. But they do. premium contributor Comments (11057) | + Follow Following . contributor . contributor . with heavy implications. I call it necessary suffering. All else is Bravo Sierra.Unfollow | Send Message Creditors should not keep giving loans to borrowers who keep making bad decisions. Nothing can grow unless we offload all this debt we are currently protecting with low interest rates. since 1974. 04:44 AMReplyLike0 Rainbow Investments . if they don't run to the government for a bailout provided by taxpayers.Unfollow | Send Message Iceland never introduced the Euro and never was a member of the EU. premium contributor Comments (11057) | + Follow Following .Unfollow | Send Message Citizens should not keep voting for governments that. This led to Germany printing of money which led to a depression which then led to WWII.

3. Along the measures Germans took was the non-approval of the program by last government and exit to markets. Greek people must take it in the shorts and the EU must move on." Won because it created chaos that resulted in debt being unsustainable? Give me a break. Thats why Iceland recovered so well after defaulting on their external debt.A New Deal For Greece | Seeking Alpha 14 of 19 http://seekingalpha.After defaulting on loans it could never repay in 09 today Iceland enjoys a 4. premium contributor Comments (3257) | + Follow Following .Unfollow | Send Message Excellent Article Hope their is a follow up article 6 Jul.Unfollow | Send Message Greece should not have joined the EWG in 1981. lived within their means.their banks loaned too much money in other countries and those gambles went sour. premium contributor Comments (10) | + Follow Following . 04:45 AMReplyLike0 may be . 6 Jul. The last thing they need is a bailout of Portugal or Spain or God forbid. Do you really want to reward the misbehaving child? 7/6/2015 05:44 .businesses dont pay taxes. Then they spent their time doing meetings with the focus on Greece. They are no Iceland 6 Jul. Parenting 101.Unfollow | Send Message "But in reality. but get big pensions and big welfare handouts. Iceland's problems were external . Put an end to the madness. 01:45 AMReplyLike0 S12A34 . The article was a soup of misunderstandings and wishful thinking. their welfare programs were modest. contributor . Iceland wasnt in the eurozone 2. premium contributor Comments (11057) | + Follow Following . Internally they were fine people paid taxes.Unfollow | Send Message Correct. Greek economy was doing just fine last December until Germany decided to keep Greece in focus so that the markets do no concentrate on France and Italy. Creditors must take it in the shorts. Italy. 03:42 AMReplyLike1 june1234 . contributor .com/article/3303525-a-new-deal-for-greece 1. 6 Jul. Let Greece be the poster child of what happens to the country that does not toe the line with the EU. Greece and the rest of em should never have joined either . thanks to the IMF belatedly applying its own rules. premium contributor Comments (186) | + Follow Following . For stupid leftist in Greece is lose-lose. contributor . etc. contributor .5% unemployment rate . the Greek government had already won. Greece's problems are internal . contributor . people dont work.Unfollow | Send Message Greece is toast. 01:48 AMReplyLike2 aretailguy . premium contributor Comments (1444) | + Follow Following . make a decision and move on already. 03:48 AMReplyLike0 Andreas Hopf . Greece might want to follow that business model 6 Jul. For Germany is a win-win situation: If Greece does well they get the credit. In coordination with the leftists they overthrew the right coalition and established communists in power. If Greece does bad they get rid off them and say to hardliners that they cleaned the EU.

evolves -. This is the so-called natural way out of a depression. necessitates. when interest rates were lowered to encourage growth. premium contributor Comments (9998) | + Follow Following . death is painful. We would like to be able to think out way out of this. debt deadbeats. in that 7/6/2015 05:44 . But birth and death are painful. during which time everything grows. from 2001-2019. One of the things we MUST do during a DEFLATION SEASON -. but wait until nobody wants your drachma. but then the expansion ends.going inward. 01:52 AMReplyLike2 goofus . premium contributor Comments (11057) | + Follow Following . The Depression is Judgment Day.dreaming energy -sleeping energy -. This is the austerity that comes with the destruction of the debt that caused the depression. joy. change the scenario. we choose death also. We contracted back to the seed from 1965-1983. And we have 18 years of death.. 6 Jul. follows Growth or Inflation by natural law. reason. 6 Jul. We have 18 years of Life. You're partying now. We have a Judgment Day every 36 years. We are contracting back to the seed now. or Old Age. the end of expansion. expended -. The fact is... THE SAVING SEASON. αντίο. Birth is painful. One of the things we must do in a SAVING SEASON (continuing my thought) is destroy debt. fertility. Fisher then tries to think his way out of this. contributor . We need to understand this in Biblical terms. from 1911-1929.and this is followed by the end of growth. develops. contributor .A New Deal For Greece | Seeking Alpha 15 of 19 http://seekingalpha. we would like it to be different. 02:01 AMReplyLike3 Andreas Hopf . if we could just use our reason to 'fix' everything. weakness. People don't want to admit this. Fisher recognized this "Ultimately. of course." This is what a depression is. also higher interest rates rewards citizens with safe income from interest-bearing investments. negativity. Was not 1929-1947 a Judgment day on the world? Was not 1965-1983 a judgment on the world.there are two main seasons in fact. the INFLATION SEASON. individual evolution. this ain't the way to do it. self-judgment. By choosing life. Then comes recovery and a tendency for a new boom-depression sequence. expansion.. from Spending Energy to Conserving or Saving Energy -.Unfollow | Send Message The whole world is in a debt deflation depression currently. This discourages more unproductive debt after growth has ended. darkness. Why is this so? It just is. And then we expanded from the seed to High-Noon from 1983-2001. unemployment and starvation.going outward -.. and try to find a way to deflect the truth.. the DEFLATION SEASON. To lower rates when a Business Cycle ends (2001) is insane and immoral. This is all he needed to say. I wouldn't touch it with any kind of hedge after this referendum result. chief hooligan Varoufakis resigned to return to academia where his dignity will be restored by his gullible flock of Amazon students. to help them pay off their debts in currect in the growth season. This is why the transition from the SPENDING SEASON to the SAVING SEASON (2001) must be accompanied by an increase in interest rates. Night Energy -. contraction. Birth and death are linked. especially on the world America built from 1947-1965? Are we not in a Judgment Day now? The world we built from 1983-2001 is being torn apart brick by brick. Of course.energy is spent.com/article/3303525-a-new-deal-for-greece 6 Jul.. Depression. There is a lot of joy and wealth and excitement along the way. contributor . the scenario cannot be changed.since in a very real sense the Spending Season is Youth and Day Energy -. from 1947-1965. but only after almost universal bankruptcy. And it is going to get worse. premium contributor Comments (335) | + Follow Following . with a lot of necessary suffering. Expansion implies. during which time the emphasis has to be changed from Spending to Saving. Look at American history..Unfollow | Send Message At least.and the Saving Season is Maturity.. This is 'needless' suffering. Greece." He should have stopped here. 04:47 AMReplyLike1 Michael Clark . He adds something strange: "with a lot of needless cruelty. the indebtedness must cease to grow greater and begin to grow less. or the SPENDING SEASON. the individual fruit develops. contraction back to the seed. and fruition. expands. It is a law of heaven.Unfollow | Send Message If you want to go out with dignity. the individual life develops.

There are ways to mitigate the pain suffered during these depressions. premium contributor Comments (432) | + Follow Following . Greece can not have standard of living which is similar to the other EU currency members. Portugal will ask themselves this "are we idiots. 6 Jul. despair. unemployment.Unfollow | Send Message If the Greek debt is wiped off. three -3%. 6 Jul. starvation.Unfollow | Send Message If the Greek government really had ANY guts THEY (Greece) would be the ones to put the Ultimatum to the idiot lenders of the EU (who lent feloniously & now are really IN NO POSITION of strength): Greeks should say: We will give you $0. but it implies more socialism during the time of the Night of Suffering. Less intellectual ejaculation and attempts to trick nautre. I expect a coup. 03:27 AMReplyLike2 Vlad Hristov . somebody call Pyongyang. and the Right Brain for Night-Cycles. This is what would solve the Greek quagmire. 6 Jul. which is destined to be unproducive since business gowth has ended. the Sabbath. the Left Brain for Day-Cycles. For this very reason I don't think the creditors will forgive the debt. don't really give a hoot one way or the other. except exercising the "government manipulation" units. which included pain. They might be partying today but they will be rioting tomorrow. and after that Greece will be ok. contributor . 04:37 AMReplyLike1 7/6/2015 05:44 . The only way out of this phenomenon is the so-called 'natural way'.. contributor . When you are broke and have nothing to lose it is 100% IDIOTIC to sacrifice your own citizens to feed the loan sharks! 6 Jul. they should wipe our debts as well". 6 Jul. a tribe or as a national of equals. Coup. 02:40 AMReplyLike1 Hidden_Value . All the EU has to do is stall and the whole country will fall apart. Be a Master of Both Worlds of Both Sides of the Brain. again.. in my humble opinion.Unfollow | Send Message CIA has no interest in Greece.com/article/3303525-a-new-deal-for-greece it tempts already endebted borrowers to take on more debt.03 on the dollar (i. 02:47 AMReplyLike2 Faxbot . premium contributor Comments (89) | + Follow Following .and by the idea of the urgency of developing both sides of the brain. premium contributor Comments (3465) | + Follow Following . when all creation stops. i DONT think so. 04:21 AMReplyLike0 Halukcan .. and less capitalism (less of what central banks are trying to do now. premium contributor Comments (921) | + Follow Following . even more now. The likes of Italy. if the debt of greece got wiped. This is the Day of the Lord so often discussed in Biblical writing. contributor . This is what is means by Eternal Life -. Socialism by Night. YES. More sharing of resources and pooling energy together collectively to survive the Winter as a family. premium contributor Comments (134) | + Follow Following . 6 Jul. a proud Greek Nation. The world needs a distraction. contributor .percent payback) IN FULL PAYMENT as we are not only insolvent but realistically bankrupt.your choice as we. There is no way to have a painless debt deflation. a domino effect will ensue.Unfollow | Send Message Two weeks without a functioning banking system and the Greek government will fall. They need to deflate that on half. 02:53 AMReplyLike0 sethmcs . contributor . Stagnation/depression.e. I have commented on that before. in fact). Capitalism by Day.Unfollow | Send Message Quick. The CIA might even be arranging one now. You can then keep us in the European Union or expel us. Spain. Economic Depression is the Day of the Lord.A New Deal For Greece | Seeking Alpha 16 of 19 http://seekingalpha.

premium contributor Comments (2) | + Follow Following . Greece are/were surprise big spenders on defence which at one point hit over 6% of GDP. contributor .Unfollow | Send Message why would the BRICs want to fund Greece? The reason Germany lent so much money to Greece was to fund a HUMOUNGOUS trade deficit and fund exports to them and sll the other Mediterranean countries of the South of the Eurozone. Particulsrly after the Great Recession. contributor .Unfollow | Send Message So how do we think the US markets are going to react tomorrow? 6 Jul. Ie They wanted to keep German facotries operating at full tilt. As the US has discovered courtesy of the Middle Eastern Bush II excursions. 04:42 AMReplyLike0 seekingfoolishness .Unfollow | Send Message Not just profligate public sector spending got them into trouble as Giles Fraser in the Guardian points out.Unfollow | Send Message I feel that Greece should find an alternative funding source. So while the Greeks were stupid enough to borrow it the Germans were dumb enough to lend it. premium contributor Comments (148) | + Follow Following . 04:53 AMReplyLike0 yestoeverything . premium contributor Comments (2) | + Follow Following . premium contributor Comment (1) | + Follow Following . contributor . 04:42 AMReplyLike0 Edge Solutions . for example BRIKS.ly/1J05OwX 6 Jul. contributor . contributor .Unfollow | Send Message I wonder if there would be any merrit in Greece approaching BRIKS for funding as an alternative to the IMF 6 Jul. 05:16 AMReplyLike0 User 35362685 .com/article/3303525-a-new-deal-for-greece Deano647 . Basically they'r all gonna stew!!!! 6 Jul.Unfollow | Send Message 7/6/2015 05:44 .A New Deal For Greece | Seeking Alpha 17 of 19 http://seekingalpha. massive increase in debt always accompanies ramped up defence activity. 6 Jul. http://bit. contributor . premium contributor Comments (236) | + Follow Following . 04:41 AMReplyLike0 Edge Solutions . over double the EU average . premium contributor Comment (1) | + Follow Following .

4% -0.6% 10.5% SEEKING ALPHA PRODUCT UPDATES My Bet On Seeking Alpha's Future by David Jackson 7/6/2015 05:44 .5% DLBS 0% 31.6% -3.com/article/3303525-a-new-deal-for-greece Thank you for your great analysis.1% -16.4% DLBL 0% -6.5% 11.0% -26.3% FLAT 0% -6.A New Deal For Greece | Seeking Alpha 18 of 19 http://seekingalpha. knowing that they were fully backed by the IMF.4% 0.5% 12. Mostly French and German banks made predatory loans to many Greek governments.7% DJP 0% 2.3% -2. At the time these loans were made. 6 Jul.9% 10.3% -0.4% XXV 0% -0.5% -0. including the people in charge at those French and German Banks.6% 5.1% IVOP 0% 0. 05:09 AMReplyLike0 Guest Add Your Comment: Publish Relevant ETN Performance ETNs Today 3 Mths 1 Yr YTD DTUL 0% 5. And now.1% DFVL 0% -3.0% DTYL 0% -4. yet alone the Euro.7% 8.4% STPP 0% 10.5% 4.0% -6.8% -0. the people get to pay.8% 1.3% 16. who had very little say to begin with. it was apparent to anyone with a brain that Greece had no business being in the EU.4% 0.

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