ventura county
Market Overview a monthly real estate report | April 2010
The State of the Market
Breaking News – At the time of production of
this report, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger
signed AB 183, authored by Assembly member
Anna Caballero (D-Salinas) and Senator Roy
Ashburn (R-Bakersfield), which will provide
a tax credit of up to $10,000 to Californians
who are buying their first home or purchasing a
brand-new home. Consult your tax advisor and
see your local Prudential California Realty sales
professional for more details.
For the past few years, California has
experienced significant setbacks in housing
— including its dubious position as the state
with the second-highest foreclosure rate in the
nation.
According to the California Association of
REALTORS® recent study of 2009 and 2010
home sellers, 67% of California home owners
put their homes on the market in 2009 as a
result of difficulties related to meeting their
mortgage obligation. That’s a substantial
increase over 2008, when C.A.R. found 20%
of homeowners, or one in five, sold due to
financial difficulties.
Among the reasons for such sales cited in 2009
and 2010 were difficulty meeting mortgage
obligations (30%), job loss (18%) and resetting
adjustable loans (18%). Lower housing
prices rendered some home owners unable to
refinance; others saw home prices fall below
what they owed on their mortgages.
Not surprisingly, only 7.5% of surveyed sellers
reported they had a fixed-rate mortgage. 92.5%
had an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) with a
two-year, three-year or five-year fixed rate, or a
negative amortization ARM.
Nearly half of homes sold in 2009 were
distressed homes in some stage of foreclosure
or short sales. As a result of having such a high
number of distressed homes on the market,
homes that sold in 2009 averaged $20,958 less
than the original asking price and $32,315 less
than the median asking price.
Just as sellers found difficulties in meeting
mortgage obligations in 2009, buyers also
faced financing challenges. A startling 63%
of homes fell out of escrow prior to closing,
with nearly 70% of buyers unable to get an
acceptable mortgage, according to sellers
surveyed. More than 60% of sellers cited
buyers “backing out” as the primary reason the
home fell out of escrow. Other reasons cited
were buyer’s remorse (26%), lender withdrew
and did not fund (24%), and declining home
prices (18%).
Even homes that sold faced hurdles, failing
to close on time 50% of the time compared
to 36% of the time in 2008. Subsequently,
seller confidence in buyers’ ability to close
plummeted, with 75% of sellers reporting
concern, an increase from 54% in 2008.
Particularly hard-hit were first-time sellers
(59%). Nearly half of surveyed sellers had
owned their homes for two years or less,
compared to one-third in 2008. First-time
home sellers increased to 44% of all sellers,
compared to 33% in 2008.
After such a thrashing, one out of three sellers
surveyed moved out of California in 2009,
compared to one in four in 2008.
According to First American CoreLogic, 35%
of California mortgage holders are underwater
— meaning they owe more on their mortgage
than their home is worth. This makes it appear
that 2010 will be as challenging for sellers as
2009 was.
Good news for buyers
As difficult as the market is for sellers, buyers
are responding to extraordinary incentives —
including the most affordable home prices in
a decade, historically low government-aided
mortgage interest rates and a continuing supply
of distressed homes to keep sellers realistic
about pricing.
In addition, the federal tax credit for first-time
and move-up buyers is good until the end of
April 2010. Qualified buyers need only to have
a solid contract and take possession by June 31,
2010.
Proof that incentives are working is the increase
in first-time home buyers: 47% in 2009,
up from 35.9% in 2008. That’s the highest
percentage increase since 1995. Typically, says
the National Association of REALTORS®,
first-time home buyers make up about 40% of
the market.
In a recent survey of home buyers, C.A.R.
found that nearly 40% said they would not have
purchased without the tax credit incentive. One
reason for its strong appeal is that the Federal
Housing Administration (FHA) increased its
qualifying loan guarantee from $362,790 to
$729,750 for high-cost areas such as California.
Reflecting that move, the percentage of home
buyers using an FHA-insured loan increased to
32% in 2009 from 18.9% in 2008. These loans
also allowed first-timers to buy bigger. Most
purchased single-family homes (80%) at an
average 1,560 square feet, compared to 1,300
square feet in 2005.
Investors also jumped back in the pool, with
70% purchasing short sales and REOs (bank-
owned properties). The median price of a
typical investment property was $232,750,
with a median size of 1,367 square feet.
The momentum generated by first-time and
move-up buyers purchasing with government-
guaranteed loans and investors buying with
cash largely moved mostly homes priced under
$500,000, causing quick sales, multiple offers
and rising prices in “affordable” homes.
For that reason, the median California home
price is projected to increase to $280,000 in
2010 from $271,000 in 2009.
Like the rest of the nation, home sales
volume declined in February 2010 (-2.2%
from January), but curiously, the median
price rose 14.1% year-over-year, from
$245,230 in February 2009 to $279,840.
California Association of REALTORS®
chief economist Leslie Appleton-Young
explains the anomaly: “Supply continues
to lag demand at the more affordable end
of the market, with a 3.9-month supply of
homes priced below $300,000, compared
with the long-run average of more than
seven months. This contrasts sharply with
the nearly 15-month supply of homes for
sales priced at $1 million or more at the
upper end of the market.”
However, large inventories have been
chipped away. For homes priced under $1
million, inventories are between 3 and 8
months of supply, versus 4.5 to 15 months
a year ago. Homes priced $1 million and
above were at 27.9 months of supply on
hand a year ago, and at 15.7 months on
hand to date.
Overall, C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index
stands at 6.3 months on hand compared to
7.1 months’ supply a year ago.
Advice for buyers: Because of uncertainty
about what will happen in the marketplace
after the home buyer tax incentive is
removed, home buyers may be tempted to
wait and see if prices fall further — but that
possibility must be weighed against possible
rising mortgage interest rates or tighter loan
standards. Incentives are here now, and they
won’t last.
This is the time to go by the numbers.
Weigh as many calculations as you can,
including tax incentives to help with your
closing costs. Weigh the cost of renting vs.
the cost of home ownership, including at
tax time, when home owners get to take
advantage of mortgage interest rate and
property tax deductions, energy rebates and
other incentives.
Advice for sellers: Because buyers currently
have the most incentives, now is the time to
put the best possible price on your home.
Keep in mind that buyers taking advantage
of first-time and move-up buyer tax credits
must make their decision to buy quickly,
so be available and agreeable for contract
negotiations. The more negatives you can
overcome before a buyer sees your home,
the less there will be to negotiate, and the
higher the likelihood of agreeing on a price
and terms quickly and solidly.

Ventura county

Like other areas of Southern California, Ventura County is enjoying a healthy seller’s market in homes priced
under $1 million, and sales of homes priced under $3 million are also brisk. But the seller’s market quickly
changes to a buyer’s market in the higher price ranges.

*A balanced market is widely accepted as having six months of inventory on hand with market conditions favorable to both buyers and sellers.
A buyer’s market is characterized by conditions such as high inventories, falling prices, concessions by sellers, and incentives among other
indicators. A seller’s market has low inventories of homes for sale, escalating prices, and keen competition between buyers, including multiple
offers.

Detached homes stand alone and share no common walls with any other neighboring home. Attached homes share at least one common wall
with another home. The type of home ownership is determined by whether it is a condominium, townhome, duplex, co-operative or other.

With over 3,400 sales associates in 58 offices across Southern California and the Central Coast, Prudential California
Realty is the name to trust when buying or selling a home. Our agents close more than $12 billion in sales volume and well over
16,000 transactions each year. We also provide every aspect of domestic and international relocation to corporations around the
world. As one of the top five brokerages in the nation and the largest affiliate in the Prudential Real Estate international network,
we have the resources and connections to protect your interests and make sure your experience is a successful one.

Prudential California Realty is proud to be a member of HomeServices of America Inc., a Berkshire Hathaway affiliate.
For more information, visit www.prudentialcal.com.
 Inventory in Months’ Supply – March 4, 2010
Detached properties in Ventura MLS

Detached Properties - Inventory in Months

Under $300K 1.3
Detached homes are selling at a blistering pace in the
$300K - $399K 1.5
conforming loan ranges and above to $900K. Homes
$400K - $499K 2.5
priced $900K and over are in a buyer’s market, but one
$500K - $599K 3.1
that can easily recover if inventory levels remain under
$600K - $699K 2.9
control.
$700K - $799K 4.3
$800K - $899K 4.9
$900K and over 10.3
Inventory in Months’ Supply – March 4, 2010
0.0
Attached 2.0
properties in 4.0 6.0
Ventura MLS 8.0 10.0 12.0

Copyright © 2010, Real Data Strategies, Inc. All rights reserved. Use is by license agreement only.
Attached Properties - Inventory in Months

Under $300K 1.8

Attached homes are also selling briskly, but hit a wall of
$300K - $399K 2.9
excess inventory at $700K to $799K. Curiously, homes
$400K - $499K 3.3
priced between $800K and $899K are selling faster.
$500K - $599K 5.1
$600K - $699K 4.8
$700K - $799K 15.0
$800K - $899K 8.7
Pricing Reality – March 4, 2010
List prices per square foot by MLS status 19.5
$900K and over

Detached
0.0 properties
5.0 in Ventura15.0
10.0 MLS 20.0 25.0

Copyright © 2010, Real Data Strategies, Inc. All rights reserved. Use is by license agreement only.

Detached Properties - Pricing Realty for Sellers, per square foot

Sellers should carefully consider current buyer
ACTIVE $431 The large gap between listing price per square foot and
demand when pricing their home for sale.
When list prices per square foot of Backup
and Pending status properties are below that
those of solds and pendings underscores the seller’s
of Active properties, sellers should ask for
CONTINGENT-1ST pricing counsel from their Agent.
RIGHT $260 market in the affordable ranges.

CONTINGENT-BACK
UP $259

PENDING $257

RELEASE FROM
SHOWING $328

Pricing
SOLD Reality – March 4, 2010
$263
List prices per square foot by MLS status
Attached properties in Ventura MLS
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500

Attached Properties - Pricing Realty for Sellers, per square foot

Copyright © 2010, Real Data Strategies, Inc. All rights reserved. Use is by license agreement only.

Sellers should carefully consider current buyer

ACTIVE $285 demand when pricing their home for sale.
A large increase in pending price per square foot
When list prices per square foot of Backup
and Pending status properties are below that
suggests more expensive attached home properties are
of Active properties, sellers should ask for
CONTINGENT-1ST pricing counsel from their Agent.
RIGHT $211 selling.
CONTINGENT-BACK
UP $207

PENDING $479

RELEASE FROM
SHOWING $242

SOLD $220

$0 $200 $400 $600

Copyright © 2010, Real Data Strategies, Inc. All rights reserved. Use is by license agreement only.
 Monthly Listings Taken and Absorbed
Detached properties in Ventura MLS
12 months through February, 2010

Detached Properties - Monthly Listings Taken and Absorbed

12 Months through January 2010
900 700
New Listings Listings Absorbed
800
737
767
600
Inventory levels were lowest in December 2009 before
700 rising 56% in February 2010. However, absorption
653 619 640
599 624 500
600 570 571 601
554 rates have risen only 6% for the same period, which
494
500 400 should warn home sellers against “testing the market.”
400 300

300
200
200
100
100

0 0
2009/03 2009/04 2009/05 2009/06 2009/07 2009/08 2009/09 2009/10 2009/11 2009/12 2010/01 2010/02

New Listings 653 570 571 601 599 624 619 640 554 494 737 767
Listings Absorbed 539 594 556 573 567 556 534 547 510 487 440 514
Monthly Listings Taken and Absorbed
Attached properties in Ventura MLS
12 months through February, 2010

Attached Properties - Monthly Listings Taken and Absorbed

12 Months through January 2010
350 210
New Listings Listings Absorbed
300
295 Attached home inventories are up 42%, while
200
269
244
absorption rates are nearly flat at +0.4%. For the last
250 232 239
212
190 two months, more listings have been added to the
203 202
200 180
173 173 market than taken away.
161 180
150

170
100

160
50

0 150
2009/03 2009/04 2009/05 2009/06 2009/07 2009/08 2009/09 2009/10 2009/11 2009/12 2010/01 2010/02

New Listings 232 161 180 203 244 202 212 239 173 173 269 295
Listings Absorbed 176 195 181 181 189 200 179 203 183 190 171 196

Listings Sold by Calendar Quarter

All residential properties in Ventura MLS
9 quarters List Price Range (Less than $1 million) through December 31, 2009
Detached & Attached Properties - Listings Sold by Calendar Quarter
9 Quarters through December 31, 2009
Average Sale Price (Thousands) Homes Sold

$600 3,000
Avg Sale Price Listings Sold Units
After falling in 2008 and hitting bottom in Q1 2009,
$500 2,500
2,109
2,062 2,071 2,050 2,050 affordable home prices rose steadily in Q2 and Q3,
$400
1,764 1,734 2,000
only to pull back slightly in Q4 2009.
$300 1,500
1,046
1,006
$200 1,000

$516 $472 $461 $427 $383 $356 $390 $410 $399

$100 500
1-year avg. price trend: Up 3.9 % 1-year sales trend: Down 0.6 %
2-year avg. price trend: Down 22.8 % 2-year sales trend: Up 103.8 %

$0 0
2007/4 2008/1 2008/2 2008/3 2008/4 2009/1 2009/2 2009/3 2009/4

Listings Sold by Calendar Quarter

Detached properties in Ventura MLS
Based on data supplied by Ventura County Regional Datashare Multiple Listing Service and its member Associations of REALTORS, who are not responsible for its accuracy.
9 Analysis
quarters through December 31, 2009
dates are October 1, 2007 through December 31, 2009. Does not reflect all activity in the market place. Copyright © 2010, Real Data Strategies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Detached Properties - Listings Sold by Calendar Quarter

9 Quarters through December 31, 2009
Average Sale Price (Thousands) Homes Sold

$800 2,000
Avg Sale Price Listings Sold Units
1,707
1,642 1,630 1,637
Sales volume in Q4 2009 was nearly twice the pace
1,575
$600
1,465
1,387 1,500 of Q4 2007, but fell below the pace set in Q4 2008.
Prices were up for the year in 2009, but it remains to
$400
842 847 1,000 be seen whether average prices will sustain gains.

$757 $699 $607 $572 $498 $431 $499 $544 $519

$200 500

1-year avg. price trend: Up 4.4 % 1-year sales trend: Down 4.1 %
2-year avg. price trend: Down 31.4 % 2-year sales trend: Up 87.1 %

$0 0
2007/4 2008/1 2008/2 2008/3 2008/4 2009/1 2009/2 2009/3 2009/4

Based on data supplied by Ventura County Regional Datashare Multiple Listing Service and its member Associations of REALTORS, who are not responsible for its accuracy.
Analysis dates are October 1, 2007 through December 31, 2009. Does not reflect all activity in the market place. Copyright © 2010, Real Data Strategies, Inc. All rights reserved.

©2009 Prudential California Realty Independently owned and operated. Objective data used in this report provided by Real Data Strategies. Inc. Our company’s mailing materials are printed on paper certified by the
Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) as the product of sustainably managed forests. An independently owned and operated member of the Prudential Real Estate Affiliates, Inc. This is not intended as a solicitation if
your property is currently listed with another broker.