Professional Documents
Culture Documents
4/2010
Marian ZAHARIA
Professor PhD, Petroleum-Gas
University of Ploiesti
Irina Gabriela RADULESCU
Associate professor, Petroleum-Gas
University of Ploiesti
Rezumat:
Aderarea Romnia la Uniunea Europeana a
presupus mai multe schimbri economice i sociale cu
impact direct asupra comerului exterior. La nivel
regional, comerul exterior n Romnia a nregistrat o
tendin de cretere a schimburilor comerciale cu
statele membre ale UE, datorat faptul c UE a devenit
principalul partener comercial din Romnia n ultimii
ani.
Perioada iunie 2006 iunie 2010 cuprinde att
ultimii ani de cretere economic n Romnia ct i
primii ani ai actualei crize economice. Datorit
acestui fapt seriile de date statistice lunare surprind
momentul i efectele trecerii Romniei de la o relativ
cretere economic la recesiune. Influenele asupra
exporturilor FOB i importurilor CIF sunt relativ
diferite.
Lucrarea analizeaz pe de o parte, evoluia
comerului internaional cu bunuri al Romnie n
cadrul UE precum i cu rile care nu fac parte din
UE, iar pe de alt parte, evoluia ponderii acestora n
rezultatele totale ale comerului internaional cu
bunuri. Este prezentat evoluia deficitului FOB/CIF
De asemenea este evaluat corelaia dintre acestea i
rata medie lunar leu/euro n perioada analizat. Sunt
prezentate influenele ratei de schimb leu/euro asupra
importurilor FOB i a importurilor CIF
Abstract:
The Romanias adhesion to European Union
has implied several economic and social changes
with a direct impact to foreign trade. At regional
level, the foreign trade in Romania has registered a
growing bias of commercial exchanges with the EU
member states, giving the fact that the EU has
become the main commercial partner of Romania in
the last few years.
The period from June 2006 to June 2010
includes both the last years of economic growth in
Romania and the first years of actual economic
crisis. Thus, the monthly statistically data series show
the time and effects of Romania change from a
relative economic growth to recession. There are
different influences upon the structure of FOB
exports and CIF imports.
The paper analyses the evolution of
Romanian merchandise foreign trade in EU area and
also with the non-members states. It is also analysed
the weight as against total results of foreign trade
and the evolution of FOB/CIF deficit.
There is an estimation of the correlation
between and the lei/euro monthly exchange rates for
this period and also there are presented the
influences of lei/euro exchange rate upon FOB
exports and CIF imports.
Cuvinte cheie:
comer exterior, corelaie
parametric, ANOVA, testul F, trend
1. Introducere
Dinamica pieelor internaionale i
creterea complexitatea pieelor financiare a
determinat apariia de noi modele i practici
ale comerului internaional. Locul i rolul
1. Introduction
The dynamic of international
markets and the complexity growth of
financial markets determined the emergence
of new models and practices of international
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J u n -0 6
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valoarea lui
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(1)
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2
ca Even if on the whole, throughout the period
R2006
_ 2010 _ line = 0.1639 face
aproximarea
liniar
s
fie
totui under review, there is an evolution around a
nesatisfctoare.
linear growth (Chart 1) gave the equation:
O aproximare ct de ct bun este dat
de funcia polinomial:
FOBtotal _ 2006 _ 2010 _ line = 10.23 t 10769
FOBtotal _ 2006_ 2010_ poly = 105 t 6 + 0.075t 5
(1)
2
The value of R2006
_ 2010 _ line = 0.1639 makes
the linear approximation unsatisfactory.
An approximation somewhat better
(2)
is given by the polynomial function:
2
pentru care R2006
_ 2010 _ poly = 0.4733 .
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Jun-08
Feb-08
Dec-07
Aug-07
Jun-07
Apr-07
Feb-07
Dec-06
Oct-06
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0
Apr-08
y = 34.55x - 42058
R2 = 0.6468
Oct-07
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A p r-0 8
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y = 34.55x - 42058
R2 = 0.6468
Aug-06
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Chart 3 FOB evolutions Jul-08 to Nov-09
FOB
(5)
valoarea
lui
2
R2010
_ line
= 0.8915
confirmnd aceasta.
assumption.
3500
3000
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3000
y = 169.76x - 221630
R2 = 0.8915
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2500
1500
y = 169.76x - 221630
R2 = 0.8915
2000
Dec09
Jan10
Feb10
Jun10
1500
Dec09
Jan10
Feb10
Jun10
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6000
INTRA EU
EXTRA EU
INTRA EU
EXTRA EU
5 6
(6)
(6)
care
prin
valoarea
lui Considering the value of
2
2
RCIF _ 2006 _ 2010 = 0.6095 putem considera c RCIF
_ 2006 _ 2010 = 0.6095 , we can consider that
ofer un model acceptabil pentru trendul the function 6 is an acceptable model for the
intregii perioade analizate
entire period analyzed trend.
2.3. Evoluia deficitului FOB/CIF
Analiznd
evoluia
deficitului
FOB/CIF n perioada iunie 2006 iunie 2010
(graficul 6) observm c acesta are o evoluie
n oglid n comparaie cu evoluia
exporturilor FOB i a importurilor CIF.
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-500
-500
-1000
-1000
-1500
-1500
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-2500
-3000
-3000
FOB/CIF total
INTRA EU
EXTRA EU
FOB/CIF total
INTRA EU
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A p r-1 0
J u n -1 0
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EXTRA EU
(7)
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4.00
4.20
3.80
4.00
3.60
3.40
3.80
3.20
3.60
3.00
J u n -0 6
A u g -0 6
O c t-0 6
D e c -0 6
F e b -0 7
A p r-0 7
J u n -0 7
A u g -0 7
O c t-0 7
D e c -0 7
F e b -0 8
A p r-0 8
J u n -0 8
A u g -0 8
O c t-0 8
D e c -0 8
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A p r-0 9
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3.40
3.20
3.00
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O c t-0 6
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A p r-0 7
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D e c -0 7
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J u n -1 0
RON /EUR
LEU /EURO
LEU
/EURO
LEU /EURO
Exports FOB total
1
0.266405
Exports FOB
total
1
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that
Significance F = 0.42198 mult mai mare dect higher
significance = 0.05 ).
pragul de semnificaie = 0.05 ).
threshold
of
1
-0.541610491
RON /EUR
Imports CIF
total
Imports CIF
total
RON /EURO
1
-0.541610491
1
Dup cum se poate observa, dei nu
As is apparent, though not too
prea puternic, exist o corelaie invers ntre
strong,
there is an inverse correlation
cei doi indicatori. Continund analiza s-au
between the two indicators. Continuing data
obinut datele prezentate n tabelul 3.
analysis, we have obtained results which are
Tabelul 3 Analiza corelaiei dintre importurile CIF i presented in Table 3.
rata de schimb medie lunar leu/euro
ANOVA
df
Regr
essio
n
1.00
Resi
dual
47.00
Total
nte
rcept
LEU
/EU
RO
SS
48.00
71082
93.67
17123
815.9
6
24232
109.6
3
Coeffici
ents
Stand
ard
Error
MS
7108
293.
67
3643
36.5
1
t Stat
7860.39
892.0
1
8.81
1041.05
235.6
9
-4.42
Signi
fican
ce F
19.
51
5.85
E-05
Pval
ue
1.6
1E11
5.8
5E05
Low
er
95%
6065
.91
1515
.19
Upp
er
95%
9654
.88
566.
90
SS
MS
7108
293.
67
3643
36.5
1
Regr
essio
n
1.00
Resi
dual
47.00
Total
48.00
71082
93.67
17123
815.9
6
24232
109.6
3
Coeffici
ents
Stand
ard
Error
t Stat
892.0
1
8.81
235.6
9
-4.42
Inter
cept
LEU
/EU
RO
7860.3
9
1041.0
5
Signi
fican
ce F
19.
51
5.85
E-05
Pval
ue
1.6
1E
-11
5.8
5E
-05
Low
er
95%
Upp
er
95%
6065
.91
1515
.19
9654
.88
566.
90
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7860.39
7860.39
6000
5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
LEI /EURO
3.00
Im p o r t s C IF t o t a l
(8)
y = -1041x + 7860.4
4.00
4.50
Linear (Imports CIF total)
6000
5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
RON /EUR
3.00
Im p o r t s C IF t o t a l
3.50
y = -1041x + 7860.4
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