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BACKGROUND: The impact of oil in daily life is quite evident. Oil is considered as a
strategic energy for economic timeline. The price of oil has an effect on cost of production in
diversified ways such as with the increase in oil prices, there is an increase in the costs of
transportation of export, import and goods for local expenditure.
It is widely believed that one of the key channels by which unanticipated energy price
changes affect real economic activity is through the effect on the demand for energy-intensive
durable goods such as automobiles. Indeed, casual evidence suggests a strong negative
association between both the quantity and fuel economy of automobiles sold and the price of
oil. Thus, when the price of the oil increases, it evidently alarms the automobile industry
because the auto-companies are in competition with one another to fulfil the new demands for
more fuel proficient consumer mindful at condensed price. There are no reservations that
profit margin of the companies are affected by this. Furthermore, rise in oil price also affects
the kind of means of transportation demanded by the buyer and the way those vehicle motors
are designed.
Oil prices have halved since June 2014, likely bringing an end to a four-year period of high
and stable prices and perhaps, to the commodity super cycle that began in late 1990s.
During one of a review from Global auto sales will decline in (2009), the automobile industry
catastrophe, currently worldwide phenomena, started during 2008. The automotive sector is
going through a crisis condition in US and Canada because of the Automobile products Trade
Agreement. Nevertheless, all auto makers worldwide, especially in Japan and Europe are also
facing the same crisis.
The global oil crisis has affected Pakistan economy severely. Automobile sector has been
greatly impacted by the oil price shocks. There had been consistency in the Gross Profit
Margin of Pakistans Automobile industry. It raised from FY01 (6.83) to FY03 (13.73). Then
had a downward slope for two consecutive years to 12.7 (FY05), then remained stable for
two more consecutive years (FY05-FY07). Since FY07 there has been a constant downward
slope, reaching 6.14 (FY09). The diminishing Profit Margin was because of the ever
escalated cost of goods sold. The risen up cost is primarily due to the global oil price shocks.
The objective of our study is to determine the impact of local oil prices on Pakistans
Automobile sales.

OBJECTIVE: The study aims to evaluate the impact of change in oil prices on sales of
automobile. The actual sales of cars (800cc to 1600cc) is taken as proxy for sales of cars.

Article No.1

September 9, 2015: Carmudis report on Car Financing in Pakistan provides a look into
current and future state of the flourishing car financing market and how consumer attitudes
towards credit have transformed (Car financing in Pakistan, 2015)d in recent years. The
findings in this report are based on studies by governmental institutions and authorities and
interviews with financial institutions, car dealers, and banking experts throughout Pakistan.

In May 2015, the IMF stated that Pakistan made significant progress by fulfilling targets
under its $6.6 billion loan program. The countrys economy is on a high with low crude oil
prices and $14 million in remittances from 6 million workers abroad. Following a 4.1%
expansion during the last fiscal year, the IMF predicted a 4.5% growth in the economy
starting July 1st of this year that was mainly driven by increased domestic demand in car
sales and construction of 20% and 5% respectively. Based on a 2014 study conducted by
Nielsen,78% of respondents in Pakistan plan to buy a new or used car in the next two years.
Results from the report also showed that 89% of Pakistani respondents plan to upgrade their
vehicles when they are financially sound. Car sales in Pakistan peaked in FY2012, reaching
over 157,000 units, and are beginning to increase once again along with the rise of consumer
lending amidst the healing economy. Due to the rapid decline in international oil and
commodity prices, auto demand in Pakistan has gone up and has had a trickledown effect on
car financing demand in the country.
about Carmudi:Carmudi was founded in 2013 and is currently available in Bangladesh,
Cameroon, Congo, Ghana, Indonesia, Ivory Coast, Mexico, Myanmar, Nigeria, Pakistan,
Philippines, Qatar, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, United Arab

Emirates, Vietnam, and Zambia. The vehicle marketplace offers buyers, sellers and car
dealers the ideal platform to find cars, motorcycles and commercial vehicles online.

Article No.2

Jan 20 2015: The fall in oil prices comes at a good time for the automotive industry. Global
light vehicle sales recovered nicely from the 2009 recession with Chinas fast growing market
providing much of the growth.
However, global sales show little improvement over the last year due to a moderating China
vehicle market, a weak European recovery, and economic troubles in Eastern Europe and
South America. In this environment, lower oil prices will help drive vehicle sales through
stronger economic growth for most countries, and by lowering operating costs, making
personal transportation more affordable for all consumers.
The light vehicle market already had a strong growth outlook with IHS Automotive
forecasting over 760 million sales between 2014 and 2021, a 33% increase over the previous

eight year period, and lower oil prices will contribute to even more upside potential. The
direct impact of low oil prices alone on vehicle purchases is difficult to quantify, but IHS
Automotive estimates sales could rise an additional 5-7 million units over the forecast



The largest beneficiaries will likely be the US market where lower gas prices will improve
consumer confidence quickly, and developing markets like India and ASEAN where lower
ownership costs will bring new buyers. However, low oil prices may also lead to government
changes in fuel subsidy and tax policies in many countries, so cost savings may not reach
consumers fully.
The largest impact from low oil will likely be on the types of vehicles purchased, and the
automotive industry may need adjust accordingly. In recent years, many countries have

implemented policies to direct consumers toward more fuel efficient vehicles in order to
address pollution concerns and reduce dependence on imported oil.
Manufacturers, assuming stronger demand for improved fuel efficiency as a result of these
policies, invested heavily in engine and transmission technologies, and have created many
product options, offered at a price premium, that improve fuel economy and lower carbon
emissions. The expectation was that consumers would invest in these technologies because
the higher fuel economy would result in lower operating costs.
However, lower gasoline prices change the return on investment calculation for consumers
dramatically, and with oil prices now falling, demand for these technologies will likely fall as
well. Lower fuel prices raise the consumers payback period the time needed to earn back
the investment in the fuel saving technology and many consumers will determine the added
cost is not worth it.
As an example, the total annual operating cost as gasoline prices change for a typical midsized car, with 24 miles per gallon fuel economy, being driven 12,000 and 20,000 miles per
year. As gas prices fall, annual operating costs also fall. Car buyers, who are assumed to be
rational, will calculate their own usage/cost relationship to determine whether a technology
investment is warranted.

The prospective car buyers investment calculation will be based on many factors, but
expected length of ownership will be critical. A consumer could purchase a midsize car with
a hybrid engine, rather than the usual gasoline only engine, for $3,000 more and improve
their fuel economy 25%. The chart on the right reveals the payback period in years for this
investment. For a consumer driving 12,000 miles per year, and gas prices at $3.50 per gallon,

it will take 8.7 years to pay back this investment from fuel savings, already a substantial
amount of time for most car buyers. At gas prices of $1.00 lower, the payback period
increases to over 12 years far too long for all but the most high-mileage drivers.
The more miles driven each year, the shorter the payback period, but even for these high use
consumers the investment choice becomes less rational as gas prices fall. For countries
with higher priced gasoline such as Europe or Japan, the change in the payback period from
falling prices is less dramatic, but still negatively impacts the return on investment. So, we
can expect far fewer consumers willing to pay for fuel efficient technologies. Electric vehicle
sales, which are generally the most expensive technology/fuel efficiency investment relative
to basic gasoline engine options, will likely suffer the most.
Vehicle size will likely be impacted as well. In a lower oil price environment, more
consumers will choose larger sized vehicles over smaller sizes. Knowing this oil price/vehicle
size relationship, there may be some trouble on the horizon for the industry. Besides
investments in improved fuel economy, the industry has also been focused on building
smaller sized vehicles in many markets in order to meet expected consumer demand and
government regulations for fuel efficiency and lower emissions.
The expectation was for oil prices to continue to rise leading consumers in most mature
markets to demand smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles. However, consumers will likely
prefer larger products than currently forecasted the longer oil stays as low levels. The
industry has a long lead time from product conception to the showroom floor, generally 3 5
years for many manufactures, so planning decisions for new vehicles may need immediate reevaluation. Overall, new low oil prices may require adjustments to longer-term product
plans, but will also benefit the industry through stronger sales and lower ownership costs by
reducing the cost of personal transportation.
Author: Michael Robinet is the Managing Director of Automotive Consulting and Tim
Armstrong is Vice President at IHS Automotive.
Image: A picture shows a charging station in front of a Mercedes electric car.
REUTERS/Thomas Peter

Posted by Tim Armstrong and Michael Robinet - 16:34

Article No.3
Do Oil Prices Affect The Auto Industry?

June 25, 2015: In economic theory the use of complementary goods is associated with the
use of another good, while substitute goods are goods viewed by consumers as similar or
comparable in some way. (Johnston, 2015)Within the auto industry, vehicles and petroleum
are considered complimentary goods whereas gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs are similar










reasonable substitutes. Understanding these two distinct categories of goods is helpful in

thinking about how price changes affect the demand for different types of goods. With the
significant decline in the price of oil over the past year, this distinction is essential in
understanding how the auto industry has and will be affected.
As gasoline is a petroleum-based product, price changes in crude oil directly affect its price.
A decrease in the price of gasoline means automobile owners have more disposable income to

use for other purchases. Owners who may have been trying to stretch out the lifetime of their
vehicle may just decide that the extra income they save from lower fuel prices can be used to
finance the purchase of a new vehicle now. For those who were unable to afford the expenses
of vehicle ownership, depressed fuel prices makes driving a lot cheaper and consequently,
vehicle ownership becomes much more attractive. (For more, see: Companies Affected Most
By Low Oil Prices.)
Yet, the affect of lower fuel prices on vehicle consumption will vary depending on different
markets. Consumers in a high fuel-tax nation such as Norway, although experiencing the
exact same absolute price change as consumers in the lower fuel-tax US, face a lower overall
percentage change in the price. The price change will thus not appear as significant in
Norway as it does in the US, and this consumer perception should result in more significant
changes in American vehicle purchases than Norwegian ones.












consumer uncertainty about the future direction of prices increases, and consequently current
price changes have a limited affect on new vehicle purchases. From this perspective, changes
in automobile sales may reflect consumer expectations of fuel prices more so than current
prices. While the recent increase in overall automobile sales could reflect expectations that
prices will remain low, most industry experts are directly crediting the increase to the recent
plunge in fuel prices arguing that American automobile consumers are much more shortsighted than some would like to think. (For more, see: How Low Can Oil Prices Go?)
While overall automobile sales in the US have increased due to the lower fuel prices, it has
been the gas-guzzlers that have been growing more rapidly than their more fuel-efficient
substitutes, as one would expect. Lower fuel prices make the difference in the cost of driving
a low fuel-economy vehicle versus a high fuel-economy vehicle less significant and thus
consumers opt for the advantages extra space and greater feeling of safety that come with
owning the bigger, less fuel-efficient vehicles.
American automobile manufacturers are not indifferent to the types of vehicles consumers
purchase, and the trend towards SUVs, trucks and bigger cars are a real boon for the industry
for a couple reasons. Firstly, US automakers have generally offered vehicles with lower fuel

economy than their foreign counterparts and are thus going to benefit more from the trend
towards these vehicle types. The other reason is that profit margins on smaller vehicles are
generally less than those on larger ones, while losses are generally suffered on electric vehicle
While American automakers are soaking up the higher profits now, there is some worry that
they could face penalties from regulators in the future. New fuel economy standards are to
take effect in 2016 and the federal government is aiming to see new vehicles with a fuel
economy of no more than 54.5 miles per gallon over the next decade. While enjoying high
profits now, without a plan to improve overall fuel-efficiency in their vehicles, automanufacturers could face heavy fines in the future. Future regulations and/or subsidies that
incentivize the purchase and manufacture of greener vehicles could be a potential limiting
factor in the substitution effects of lower fuel prices. (For more, see: How New Fuel
Efficiency Standards Will Affect Americans.)
Based on an understanding of complementary and substitute goods, the American auto
industry is exhibiting expected effects from the recent plunge in the price of oil. Lower fuel
prices make driving cheaper, consequently making automobile ownership more appealing.
The reduced cost of driving also means the difference between the gas-guzzlers and the
smaller fuel-economy substitutes less significant, creating a shift in consumer preferences
towards bigger and more powerful vehicles. While American automakers are enjoying the
significantly higher profits from this trend, they would be wise to invest these increased
earnings in strategies that improve the fuel-efficiency of their vehicles in order to comply
with greener standards.
By Matthew



Article No.4
Big Feature: Will plunging oil prices boost sales of gas-guzzling cars?

Petrol prices are falling and some experts believe this could boost car sales
Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) this week issued its strongest ever set of sales figures.
The car firm, which employs more than 6,000 people at its Halewood factory, sold a total of
462,678 vehicles in 2014, a 9% increase on 2013 sales.


The figures should mean that JLR owner Tata Motors will be able to publish a strong set of
financial results for 2014.
It represents a dramatic improvement on JLRs fortunes just a few years ago when it was
losing hundreds of millions of pounds annually.
The company expects the growth momentum to continue as new models roll off the
production lines of its five factories around the world helping sales to break through the
500,000 mark in 2015.
The firm has a keen eye on the North American market. The total number of cars sold in the
US is growing robustly at the moment, but JLRs figures havent quite kept pace with the
overall market. Car sales in the US were 16.5m in 2014, up 11% and the third highest figure
ever and the best since 2005. Sales of Land Rovers, however, were up just 3%, while Jaguar
sales fell 7%, implying it is in fact losing market share in the US. In a bid to address this
problem, JLR used this weeks Detroit Motor Show to unveil its new Jaguar sports utility
vehicle (SUV).
Some analysts in the US believe falling petrol prices are helping with both overall sales in the
US and renewed consumer interest in bigger engines, pointing to official data that shows the
average petrol consumption of cars sold last year fell.
If its true that lower petrol prices are responsible for sparking a return to bigger engined cars,
then it raises questions about the sustainability of that trend and whether it will happen in
Glasss, the car industrys bible for vehicle prices, this week predicted a return to popularity
for both new and second-hand bigger engined vehicles in the UK.
Rupert Pontin, Glasss head of valuations, said: While no-one could call petrol and diesel
prices exactly cheap, they are certainly falling to a level where some consumers wont place
fuel economy as high on their list of priorities as we have seen in recent years. Bigger engine
cars are suddenly more viable.
Professor Peter Wells is a co-director of Cardiff Business Schools Centre for Automotive
Industry Research. He specialises in assessing the sustainability of the industry. Referring to

the rising US fuel consumption figures, he told ECHO Business: It seems to indicate that
there has been some market impact there.
He warned that if a longer term trend developed it could hold back the development of
electric cars. Prof Wells added: The business case for electric vehicles is already weak, so
this is going to further undermine the case.
If you look at the environmental performance of the total fleet, these changes will be
potentially significant.
While the current dip in oil prices is still too recent to amount to a long term trend, there is
some reason to believe that they may be here to stay. He explained: We are beginning to see
the impact of the US shift into shale gas.
Ultimately, the US will cease to be a net oil importer and that will have profound
consequences in the balance of power for the politics of the oil market. This may turn out to
be the first sign of that. Its also going to impact on the global flow of money. Its already
impacted on Russias currency and economy.
Consumers here will see cheaper petrol pump prices, cheaper flights and cheaper electricity.
Its going to tempt us into consumption that, in the end, is not going to be sustainable. These
sorts of developments make it more difficult.
However, a spokesman for Britains Society of Motor Manufacturers (SMMT) says the
industry believes a resurgence in the popularity of big gas guzzlers in Britain is unlikely.
He said: We dont expect the fall in oil prices to have much of an effect, if any, in the UK.
If petrol prices fall, psychologically thats going to make consumers feel a bit better off,
which you would think would increase their confidence somewhat. But beyond that, we dont
expect lower prices to have much of an effect.
Consumers, the SMMT believes, are increasingly wedded to the idea of fuel efficiency.
The SMMT spokesman added: One thing we have seen a clear trend for is increasing engine
efficiency and we expect that to continue in the long term.


He points to official figures that show CO2 emissions from vehicles in the UK have fallen by
25% in the past decade. At the same time, cars have become 25% more efficient.
The spokesman said: The fall in oil prices is a relatively recent thing compared to the cycle
for new models which are planned years in advance. The Jaguar SUV has been in
development for some years.
If you look at the buying trends over the last 10 years, this type of crossover SUV segment
has been growing strongly.
The crossover is smaller than the traditional SUV and offers similar miles per gallon to
He added: People are down (Gleeson, 2015)sizing. They are moving into something smaller
and are more interested in improved emissions.

Article No.5
Gas prices boost bigger vehicle sales


Full size pickups gain sales momentum, but is it fleeting?

The rebound of the U.S. automotive market in 2014 has been marked by particularly strong
sales of pickup trucks and (Doron Levin, 2014)sport utility vehicles, consistent with the
affection many American motorists have for large vehicles.
Moderating fuel prices nationwide are stoking sales, as well as demand for new vehicles to
replace those that have been on the road an average of 11 years. Consumer confidence has
been at multi-year high levels, and the jobs picture has improved steadily as well.
Hybrids and battery-powered cars, by contrast, lately have struggled with a few exceptions,
notably Nissans Leaf electric vehicle, up nearly 25% through the first ten months of the year.
Toyotas popular Prius hybrid is down more than 11% for the year.
Overall, vehicle sales rose 6% in October from a year ago and are on track to reach a total of
between 16.4 million and 16.5 million by the end of the year. Ford Motor Co F -1.31% said
utility vehicles and trucks accounted for 72% of its sales for the month, up from 68.5 percent
a year ago.
Fred Diaz, Nissans senior vice president of sales and marketing for North America, told the
Wall Street Journal when you look at the economic indicators, everything is either positive
or neutral. We all know there still is a huge pent-up demand out there.
Gasoline prices are averaging below $3 a gallon nationwide for the first time in three years.
The drop alleviates worry that consumers will get hit in their pocketbooks each time they fill
up; it also provides extra cash to household budgets. But the low fuel prices also could
portend economic trouble.
Initially, (a lower oil price) will provide a boost to an economy that already has some
momentum, Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial told the Associated Press.
Its like a tax cut. The problem is that it will come back to haunt us in 2015 to the extent it
reflects a weakening global economy.
Of the five top-selling vehicle models in October, three were fullsize pickups Ford F150,
Chevrolet Silverado and Ram one was a small crossover, the Honda CR-V. Toyota Camry
was the only car to crack the top five.

Through the first 10 months of the year, vehicles classified as light trucks accounted for
51.6% of the U.S. market, while 48.4% were passenger cars.
Minivans, up nearly 6% this year, are half as popular proportionately as they were a decade
ago. Minivans have been overtaken by new crossover models that provide more room for
passengers. Crossovers are based on car architectures, making them lighter than minivans or
truck-based sport-utility vehicles. The minivan sector is dominated by Fiat Chrysler
Automobiles FCA 0.00%, whose Dodge Caravan and Chrysler Town and Country models
account for half the market.
Federal and state regulators have tightened fuel-efficiency restrictions while providing
incentives to manufacturers of alternative-fuel vehicles such as the Leaf to reduce
consumption of energy. The initiatives have worked to make vehicles lighter and to make
their propulsion systems more energy efficient.
But the government hasnt stifled American preferences for big vehicles.

H: There is no relation between local oil prices and Pakistans Automobile sales.
H1: There is relationship between local oil prices and Pakistans automobile sales

The research is exploratory in nature and relied on secondary research and data collection,
reviewing available literature and data. The objective function is therefore estimated by
regressing sales of automobile on oil prices in a linear form using year wise data for the price
period 2005 to 2014.
SALES AUTO t = a + b (OIL PRICE t) + Ut
SALES AUTO = No. Of cars sold in year = t

OILPRICE = price of petroleum in Rs in year t

a and b are intercepts and slope coefficients respectively.
and Ut is random error term.
The model as specified above is estimated using SPSS software in a linear form.

The data analysis was done through SPSS, Regression analysis is done to find out the
relationship between the two variables. The annual local oil prices were compared with the
annual automobile sales. The statistical tool used is regression and ANOVA.


Here, domestic oil prices is independent and Pakistans Automobile Sales is dependent

Null hypothesis (H): there is no relationship between oil prices and sales of automobile.
Alternative hypothesis (H1): decrease in oil prices increases sales of automobile.


Model Summary

R Square

Adjusted R




Std. Error of
the Estimate

The independent variable is annual prices of oil.

Sum of


Mean Square












The independent variable is annual prices of oil.



Std. Error



annual prices of












Coefficient of determination (R) is very low that is R =- 0.038 means price of petroleum
does not explain sales of automobile.
F statistics is 0.673 which is also very low and significant at 5% level of significance.
The slope of co-efficient of independent variable oil prices also turns to be negative i-e
-359.538 and insignificant at 5% level of significance. However the negative signs of slope
co-efficient shows that sales of vehicles (cars) increases with decrease in oil prices.
The null hypothesis: that there is no relationship between oil price and automobile sales
cannot be rejected


This research will help automobile manufacturers to study the relationship between the oil
prices and their sales. So that they can make better decisions to face any sales fluctuation due
to oil.

The data was obtained through secondary source from the internet free of cost. The sources of
data used were Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) for sales of cars and
the Pakistan Energy Book ministry of petroleum, government of Pakistan, for oil prices.

This study required two weeks to complete. Week one was allocated to literature review and
collection of data from secondary sources. Week two was spent on formulation of hypothesis
and testing the hypothesis by analysing the data.

Although the research has reached its aims, there were some unavoidable limitations which
are as follows:
The primary data was hard to collect. Cause no company would allow us to give their
organizations sales data directly to us. Limited access to data is an obstacle or barrier in good
research analysis.


Lack of reliable data:

Secondary data is less reliable source of data which not only limits the scope of our analysis
but it is also a significant obstacle in finding a trend and a meaningful relationship.
Lack of prior research studies on the topic:
Citing prior research studies forms the basis of literature review and helps lay a foundation
for understanding the research problem. It was a big obstacle in finding the data on such
research topic in which we have little or no prior research.
Longitudinal effects:
Unlike professor, who can literally devote years [even a lifetime] to studying a single topic,
the time available to investigate a research problem and to measure change or stability over
time is pretty much constrained by the due date of assignment.

The model has been estimated as given below
SALESAUTO t = 165670 359.5*OILPRICE t + Ut



t stat






R = -0.038 and F = 0.673

In the above estimated model the tstat and the corresponding p-value shows that slope
coefficient (-359.5) is insignificant at 5% level of significance. This means that decrease in
oil price has no effect on the sales of automobile. The significant value of F indicated that
there is no linear relationship between the two variables. Therefore the hypothesis of no
relationship between oil prices cannot be rejected at 5% level of significance.


(2015). Car financing in Pakistan.
Doron Levin. (2014). Gas prices boost bigger vehicle sales. Fortune.
Gleeson, B. (2015, January 15). Will plunging oil prices boost sales of gasguzzling cars? Retrieved from
Johnston, M. (2015). Do Oil prices affect the Auto Industry? Investopedis.
Robinet, T. A. (2015). The Impact of Lower Oil Prices on the Auto Industry. The
World Economic Forum.