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Figure 1: Oil price volatility, 1987 to 2009: Number of days during which oil prices shifted more than five percent.3
45
40
2008: 39 days
1990: 38 days
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Figure 3: Between 2002 and 2009, share of worldwide demand for power tools
grew from 22 percent to 33 percent among emerging markets (Asia Pacific,
Latin America, and Africa and the Middle East).
100%
90%
80%
16%
15%
18%
3%
3%
5%
4%
8%
6%
70%
60%
Latin America
39%
44%
50%
41%
40%
North America
39%
32%
10%
0%
Africa/
Middle East
Europe
30%
20%
Asia Pacific
2002
2006
27%
2009
Figure 4: Projected shift in regional share between 2010 and 2013 for large
(>$10 billion) companies.4
6%
4%
2%
0%
North
America
Western
Europe
Middle East/
Africa
Japan
Eastern
Europe
Latin
America
Asia
-2%
-4%
-6%
United States
$1.25M
$2.20
$4.50
39.25%
Mexico
$925K
$1.05
$2.15
28%
Poland
$975K
$1.10
$2.25
19%
Tax Paid
$4,735,804
$4,735,804
$7,329,941
Tax Paid
$2,544,024
$2,129,314
$4,673,338
$9,412,944
Tax Paid
$1,284,447
$927,491
$1,382,435
$3,594,373
Tax Rate
39.25%
28%
19%
25.93%
Changing Demographics:
The Growing Importance
of Regional Manufacturing
Strategies
Expected Shifts in
Regional Supply and
Demand
Are executives prepared for the shifts
we have just described? To find out,
Accenture and MIT analyzed the
survey data (focused on companies
in 17 different industries ) obtained
by Accenture. We compared current
revenue and manufacturing distribution
by region to the 2013 projections
that each surveyed company
provided to our researchers.
Figure 9: 2010 share of revenue and supply from the United States by company size.
Share of Demand
Share of Supply
Less than
$250M
$250M$500M
$500M$1B
$1B-$5B
$5B-$10B
Greater than
$10B
Figure 10: 2010 share of revenue from the United States by company size and industry.
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Automotive/Transportation Equipment
Biotechnology/Life Sciences
Chemical/Process
Electrical/Electronic Equipment
Industrial Goods
Metal Fabrication
Paper/Wood/Printing
Less than
$250M
$250M$500M
$500M$1B
$1B-$5B
$5B-$10B
Greater than
$10B
Figure 11: 2010 distribution of revenue and manufacturing supply by region for companies $10B or larger.
Demand
Supply
North
America
Western
Europe
Japan
Eastern
Europe
Middle
East/Africa
Latin
America
Asia
Figure 12: Projected shift in regional share between 2010 and 2013 for companies whose revenue exceeds $10 billion.
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
North
America
Western
Europe
Middle
East/Africa
Japan
Eastern
Europe
Latin
America
Asia
-4%
-6%
-8%
Figure 13: Projected shift in regional share between 2010 and 2013 for two industries.
8%
6%
4%
2% North
America
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
Western
Europe
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
Middle
East/
Africa
Japan
Eastern
Europe
Latin
America
Asia
North
America
Western
Europe
Middle
East/
Africa
Japan
Eastern
Europe
Latin
America
Asia
Figure 14: Projected shift in regional share between 2010 and 2013 for the software industry.
15
Demand Growth
Supply Growth
Software
10
5
Eastern
Euopr
Europe/
Russia
South
America
Western
Europe
United Mexico/
States/ Central
-5 Canada America
China
Japan
India
Middle
East/
Africa
Australia Other
Asia
pacific
-10
-15
Figure 15: Projected shift in regional share of supply and tax rate. For the purpose of this figure, APAC does not include
China and India.
4
Supply Growth
China
3
2
Western
Europe
APAC
1
0
Tax Rate
Eastern
Europe
Australia
Japan
India
-1
Mexico/
Central
America
-2
-3
-4
South
America
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
-5
-6
United
States/
Canada
Middle
East/
Africa
45
Supply Shift
10
1: Regional Distribution
Centers Become More
Attractive
As oil prices increase, outbound
transportation costs become more
expensive and, as a consequence, it
becomes more necessary to minimize
11
2. Sourcing and
Production Move Closer
to Demand
As cheaper manufacturing costs
(frequently associated with offshoring)
are offset by higher transportation
costs, it may be necessary to move more
manufacturing and sourcing activities
onshore. This can be determined
through total landed cost analyses that
consider unit costs, transportation costs,
inventory and handling costs, duties
and taxation, and the costs of finance.
Landed cost assessments are a good
way to calculate the cost of sourcing
or manufacturing in one location and
serving customers in other locations.
In a total landed cost assessment, the
impact of sourcing and production costs
generally diminishes as transportation
costs increase.
Revisiting the previous example, we can
see that, as oil prices increase, so does
the need for production to move closer
to demand. In this case, the advantages
of cheaper manufacturing in Mexico are
offset by higher transportation costs
(Figure 17).9
Figure 16: Oil cost increases from $75 per barrel to $200 per barrel change the optimal number of distribution centers
from five to seven. In particular, the Las Vegas DC is replaced by facilities in Los Angeles, Albuquerque and Portland.
$75/barrel
$200/barrel
Figure 17: As oil prices rise, manufacturing moves closer to market demand. The percentages represent the proportion of
demand satisfied from manufacturing at a specific plant.
$75/barrel
$200/barrel
23%
22%
78%
23%
Juarez,
Mexico
Philly Plant
54%
Juarez,
Mexico
Philly Plant
Omaha
Plant
12
14% Cost
Increase
3.5% Cost
Increase
13
14
Conclusions and
Recommendations
15
16
17
References
Are Manufacturers Really Bringing
Back Work to the US? SCDigest, August
24, 2010; Hagerty, J. R. U.S. Factories
Buck Decline, The Wall Street Journal,
January, 19 2011.
14
Ibid.
10
11
12
Lohr, S. Was Japan Only the WarmUp For China? The New York Times,
January 23, 2011
13
18
ACC11-1145
About Accenture
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