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You are on page 1of 9

:

First name:

UID:

Econ 41

Anastasia Burkovskaya

27 April 2016

Midterm exam

Version 1

You are allowed to use a simple calculator and a hand-written cheat sheet.

Please, turn off your cellphone and put it away. Any type of cheating will be

reported to the Office of the Dean of Students. You have 1 hour and 15

minutes to finish the exam.

Good luck!

1

**1. Four cards are randomly chosen from a deck of 52 cards. What is the
**

probability that the person gets one Queen and three Kings?

(a)

4 C3

52 C4

(b)

(4 C 3 ) 2

52 C4

(c)

4 C1

52 C4

(***)

**(d) none of the above
**

2. Two cards are drawn at random from a regular deck of cards. What is the

probability of receiving in order a spade and a heart?

(a)

(b)

(c)

132

52 P2

(***)

52 C2

52 P2

132

52 C2

**(d) none of the above
**

3. Suppose that the outcome space is Ω = {a, b, c, 1, 5, 9, d}. Which of the

following is a partition of Ω?

(a) {a, 1, 9}, {2, c, d}, {b, 5}

(b) {a, b, c}, {c, 1, 5}, {5, 9, d}

(c) {a, b, c, d}, {1, 5}

**(d) none of the above (***)
**

Questions 4–6 are based on the following information:

Events A1 and A2 form a partition of Ω. Suppose that P (B ∩ A1 ) = 0.3,

P (B|Ac1 ) = 0.5 and P (A2 ) = 0.4.

4. What is P (A1 )?

(a) 0.3

(b) 0.6 (***)

(c) 0.8

(d) none of the above

2

5. What is P (B)?

(a) not enough information

(b) 0.3

(c) 0.5 (***)

(d) none of the above

6. Which events are pairwise independent?

(i) A1 and B

(ii) A2 and B

(iii) A1 and A2

(a) all of them

(b) (i) and (ii) (***)

(c) (i)

(d) none of them

7. Two fair coins are tossed. Event A denotes that the first coin is H, event

B is that the second coin is H, and event C is that there is exactly one

H. Which of the following is true?

(i) A, B and C are mutually independent

(ii) A ⊥

⊥B

(iii) A ⊥

⊥ C and B ⊥

⊥C

(a) (i), (ii), (iii)

(b) only (ii) and (iii) (***)

(c) only (iii)

(d) only (ii)

3

**Questions 8–12 are based on the following information:
**

Widgets are manufactured in three factories: A, B and C. The proportion

of defective widgets for each factory is the following: 2% in A, 5% in B

and 10% in C. Factory A produces 50% of all widgets, B produces 30%

of all widgets, and C produces 20%.

8. What is the proportion of defective widgets in the total number of widgets?

(a) 4.5% (***)

(b) 9%

(c) 17%

(d) none of the above

9. A customer complains that her widget is defective. What is the probability

that it was produced in factory C?

(a) 0.10

(b) 0.20

(c) 0.44 (***)

(d) none of the above

10. Now suppose that the manager decides to reduce the production and stops

using factory C, thus, only factories A and B operate. What is the probability that a random widget is produced in factory A?

(a) 0.5

(b) 0.625 (***)

(c) 0.8

(d) none of the above

11. A randomly chosen widget is defective. Given that only factories A and B

are producing widgets, what is the proportion of defective widgets now?

(a) 2.5%

(b) 3.1% (***)

(c) 7%

(d) none of the above

4

**12. The manager finds a defective widget. What is the probability that it was
**

produced in factory A if only A and B produce all the widgets?

(a) 0.4 (***)

(b) 0.3

(c) 0.2

(d) none of the above

Questions 13–21 are based on the following information:

Suppose that random variables X ⊥

⊥ Y and have the following cdfs:

0, if x < 2

0.5, if 2 ≤ x < 4

FX (x) =

c , if 4 ≤ x < 6

1

1, if x ≥ 6

0, if y < 0

1

FY (y) = 12

(y 2 + y), if 0 ≤ y ≤ 3

1, if y > 3

**13. It is known that P (X = 6) = 2P (X = 4). What is the value of c1 ?
**

(a)

1

6

(b)

1

3

(c)

2

3

(***)

**(d) none of the above
**

14. What is P (2 < X < 4)?

(a) 0 (***)

(b)

1

6

(c)

1

2

(d) none of the above

5

15. What is P (4 < X 2 ≤ 36)?

(a)

1

2

(b)

2

3

(***)

(c) 1

(d) none of the above

16. What is EX?

(a)

7

3

(b)

29

3

(c) 12

(d) none of the above (***)

17. What is V (X)?

(a)

50

3

(b) 7

(c)

29

9

(***)

**(d) none of the above
**

18. What is P (−1 < Y < 2)?

(a)

6

12

(b)

7

18

(c)

23

64

(***)

**(d) none of the above
**

19. What is pdf of Z = 2 ln Y ?

(a)

1

0.5z

12 (2e

(b)

1

12 (2z

(c)

1

z

24 (2e

+ 1)

+ 1)

+ e0.5z ) (***)

(d) none of the above

6

20. What is EY ?

(a)

41

24

(b)

189

144

(c)

15

24

**(d) none of the above (***)
**

21. What is V (Y )?

(a) 0.61 (***)

(b) 1.83

(c) 4.125

(d) none of the above

Questions 22–23 are based on the following information:

Suppose that X, Y and Z are independent and EX = 3, V (X) = 2,

EY = 0, EY 2 = 1, EZ = 0.5 and EZ 2 = 1.

22. What is E(3X 2 + 5Y − Z 2 )?

(a) 27

(b) 32 (***)

(c) 37

(d) none of the above

23. What is V (3X + Y − Z)?

(a) 19.75 (***)

(b) 18.25

(c) 6.25

(d) none of the above

24. Suppose that X ∼ U [0, 2]. What is P (min(X, X 2 ) < 1.21)?

(a) 0.43

(b) 0.55

(c) 0.61 (***)

(d) none of the above

7

**25. Suppose that X ∼ exp(1). What is E(e−2X )?
**

(a)

1

3

(b)

1

2

(***)

(c) 2

(d) none of the above

Questions 26 and 27 are based on the following information:

A student has to take 5 exams. Probability to pass each of them is 0.3

and passing each exam is independent on passing other exams. We are

interested in how many exams the student passes.

26. Which distribution should be used in order to describe this uncertain

situation?

(a) Bernoulli

(b) Uniform

(c) Poisson

(d) none of the above (***)

27. How many exams does the student pass in expectation?

(a) 1.5 (***)

(b) 2

(c) 3.5

(d) none of the above

28. Suppose that A ⊥

⊥ B, P (A) > 0 and P (B) > 0. What of the following is

FALSE?

**(a) A and B are mutually independent
**

(b) P (A|B c ) = P (A)

(c) Ac ⊥

⊥B

(d) A ∩ B = ∅ (***)

8

**29. Suppose that A ⊥
**

⊥ B. Which of the following is true?

(i) P (A|B) = P (A|B c )

(ii) P (A|A ∪ B) = P (A)

(iii) P (A|A ∩ B) = P (B|A ∩ B)

(a) all of the above

(b) (i)

(c) (i) and (iii) (***)

(d) none of the above

30. Three fair coins are tossed in a row. What is the probability of exactly

two heads?

(a)

1

8

(b)

1

4

(c)

3

8

(***)

(d) none of the above

9

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