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China’s Economic Growth: 1952–2010

Authors(s): Gregory C. Chow and Kui‐Wai Li
Source: Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 51, No. 1 (October 2002), pp. 247256
Published by: The University of Chicago Press
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/344158
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0013-0079/2003/5101-0012$10. and total factor productivity by estimating a Cobb-Douglas production function using official Chinese data. and very similar results were obtained. It is an extension of Gregory C. Data on Capital Stock and Output The construction of our capital stock series is based on Chow’s 1993 study (tables 6 and 7). Section IV presents the decomposition of growth of aggregate output into its three components and provides projections of GDP up to 2010.42 on Sat. as with the construction of that series. Section V contains some concluding remarks.2 We have chosen the series with an initial capital stock of 2. That series provides a value of capital stock of 14. Introduction This article attempts to account for China’s economic growth in terms of labor.57.jstor. Section III provides estimates of the parameters of a Cobb-Douglas production function. 26 Mar 2016 18:00:50 UTC All use subject to http://about. Chow Princeton University Kui-Wai Li City University of Hong Kong I. and hereafter) at the end of 1952 because.org/terms . Chow’s earlier work in 1993 and has two purposes: to find out whether the parameters of the production function have changed and to use the production function to forecast GDP growth up to 2010. in which several capital stock series were used to estimate aggregate production functions. II. we continue to use aggregate net investment in this study to construct a capital stock series for the entire economy. All rights reserved.China’s Economic Growth: 1952–2010* Gregory C. If net investment (called “accumulation” in official statistics) data in 䉷 2002 by The University of Chicago.112 at the end of 1978.213 (all such numbers in 100 million yuan.00 This content downloaded from 39. capital. although there was a change in the national income accounting system in 1994 from using an old and narrower definition of national income to using a measure of GDP that conforms to the standard definition of national income accounting. The estimation of a capital stock series is discussed in Section II.1.1 Official data on labor force and national output are readily available.

9394. we could construct a capital stock series from 1978 onward simply by adding them to the initial capital of 14.96K t⫺1 ⫹ RGI t . 0. after 1994. as estimated above. We first estimated the implied depreciation rates for 1993–98 by solving equation (1) for the coefficient of K t⫺1 given the initial estimates of capital stock and RGI. 0. and “accumulation” in current prices can be treated as “accumulation” in constant prices. 0. prices of investment goods remained almost constant. (2) Real consumption can be obtained by deflating nominal consumption by the consumption price index. 26 Mar 2016 18:00:50 UTC All use subject to http://about.” to the new GDP. There are two problems.42 on Sat. when economic reform started. we try to improve on the assumption of a constant rate of depreciation.” which equals “consumption” plus “accumulation. we deflate the net export of goods and services by the implicit GDP deflator. For the estimation of capital stock after 1993.9492. Second. as in Chow.7 We sum the depreciation values from all the provinces for 1993. (1) where real gross investment RGIt at period t is obtained by using the following national income accounting identity in real terms based on GDP data in the Statistical Yearbook of China (hereafter SYC ):4 GDP p Consumption ⫹ Gross Investment ⫹ Net Export of Goods and Services.5 To obtain the real value of net exports. prices of investment goods began to change. we tentatively use a rate of depreciation equal to 4% (to be revised below) and apply the equation K t p 0.9450. From 1952 to 1978. 1994.1. First.248 Economic Development and Cultural Change constant prices were available. but an appropriate price index is not readily available. Net investment (NI) equals GI less total provincial depreciation (Dep). however. and 1996–98 and estimate a depreciation value for 1995 by averaging the 1994 and 1996 figures. The capital stock equation for period 1993–98 is K t p K t⫺1 ⫹ RNI t (3) where real net investment (RNI) is obtained by RNI p RGI # (NI/GI). 0.jstor. The coverage of the new GDP and GNP is broader than the former “national income” statistic by the inclusion of some service items that were previously excluded.3 After 1978. which equals final consumption expenditure plus gross capital formation plus net export of goods and services.9520. For the period 1978–92.org/terms .57. official Chinese national income statistics were changed from “national income available. published “accumulation” data are in current prices. 8 (4) Gross investment (GI) is found in SYC.9549.112 at the end of 1978.6 Real gross investment (RGI) is obtained by subtracting real consumption and real net export of goods and services from the official real GDP figures in 1978 prices. and This content downloaded from 39. not constant prices. This yields 0.

Gregory C. It can also be seen from table 2 that the trend coefficients of 0.6% per year from 1978 to 1998. which equals zero from 1952 to 1977. (5) and under the assumption of constant returns. 26 Mar 2016 18:00:50 UTC All use subject to http://about. The estimates of the capital and labor coefficients in Chow based on the sample period 1952–80.” as the estimate of the trend coefficient is ⫺0. 31) statistic for testing this assumption is only 0.9937.42 on Sat.9 Real GDP is proportional to the index of real GDP converted to 1978 prices using the 1978 nominal GDP. including an exponential trend. The sum of the point estimates of the coefficients of ln K and ln L is very close to one. and. China’s Aggregate Production Function A Cobb-Douglas production function is estimated for the Chinese economy in the period 1952–98.16 Residuals of equation (6) are shown in the last column of table 1. Chow and Kui-Wai Li 249 0.org/terms . excluding the years 1958–69.57.10 The nominal-to-real GDP ratio gives the annual implicit price deflator used for deflating net export. We therefore apply the mean 0. III. and increases by one each year thereafter.946 to replace the coefficient 0. accordingly. the use of equation (6). we examine the extent of technical progress in the Chinese economy during the reform years beginning with 1978 by introducing a trend variable t. showing a constant return to scale as they sum to 0. are 0.1.0219. as can be detected by adding a trend variable.9358.11 Similar to Chow.15 The regressions in table 2 suggest that there is an average increase in total factor productivity of about 2. supporting the assumption that their parameter values actually sum to one. The reasons for excluding these abnormal and off-production frontier years were given in Chow. Table 1 exhibits the economic data used.14 Using equation (6) and after having detected no trend in the above sample period.13 For this period. Nominal GDP and labor force are found in SYC. Although the implied rates of depreciation might appear to increase slightly through the years 1993–98.3584. thus. China did not have technological progress. which is very similar to our coefficient of 0. strongly supporting this assumption and. respectively.0065 with a standard error of 0.0458. This is a new result to be added to Chow’s conclusion that “technological progress was absent in 1952–80.6284 in table 2.0262 and 0. respectively.6317 with a standard error of 0. there is no sufficient economic reason to abandon the simple assumption of a constant rate of depreciation. with a mean of 0. excluding 1958–69. (6) Table 2 summarizes the least squares estimates of equations (5) and (6).946. The F(1. gives ln GDPt p a 0 ⫹ a1 ln K t ⫹ a 2 ln L t ⫹ a 3 t. ln (GDP/L) t p a 0 ⫹ a1 ln (K/L) t ⫹ a 3 t.0263 estimated This content downloaded from 39.jstor. we revise our estimates for 1993-98 using equations (3) and (4).6353 and 0. equals one in 1978.12 Taking the log of both sides of the Cobb-Douglas production function. Chow found a capital coefficient of 0.96 in equation (1) to revise our estimates of capital stock from 1978 to 1992.0187.

0729 2. 1978 yuan).64 287.88 7.524.807.0837293 .592.85 1.993 8.993 7.32 10.TABLE 1 Economic Data Year RGDP L 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 799.993 13.993 2.614.2361 4. K p capital stock (100 million.037 44.094.505 64.598.94 116.0293702 ⫺.825.8197 4.6640 2.3225 3.1364 2.6373 6.391 56.160.62 1.0841383 .7947 6.712.jstor.99 344. 250 This content downloaded from 39.17 239.624.8168 3.20 2.203.10 8.68 193.52 1.7736 2.016008 ⫺. IPD p implicit price deflator.org/terms .1.066794 ⫺.575.111.7369 3.023415 ⫺.993 4.97 2.993 4.764.004742 ⫺.993 4.484.496 87.3725 4.0721603 .025.993 2.0159559 ⫺.492.115.9957 Dep 3.8670 2.993 14.653.993 6.9805 3.84 3.131.5554 6.013.18 2.452.5854 3.76 110.0115272 .0539845 .24 IPD K Residual ⫺.542.760.882.4334 5.601.98 181.12 5.380.9873 5.88 158.5590 2.68 5.993 14.034 24. current yuan).641 71.04 1.93 1.57.5295 4.00 103.7199 6.700.21 1.832.589.03 4.001545 ⫺.0859975 .476 .2328 2.31 1.0046278 .991.42 1.993 9.98 1.533 40.006527 .993.074.44 1.53 4.977.0518618 100. 1978 yuan).44 3.01 2.806 79.993 11.993 5.007434 ⫺.06427 ⫺.046.32 1.569.17 3.96 4. L p labor force (100 million).07 343.8834 3.119.5620 3.486.993 3.045429 ⫺.846.27 9.66 19.1024 4.627.39 128.0670675 .993 9.170.89 7.800.884 27.226.4799 6.981.444.425.42 on Sat.614.1915 3.648.88 109.24 2.989.182.1282 5.993 4.6600 2.25 1.718.088602 ⫺.0140107 ⫺.37 2.993.8850 6.5880 2. 26 Mar 2016 18:00:50 UTC All use subject to http://about.73 21.024.993 6.3909 6.5910 2.105.014768 ⫺.406.97 6.024562 ⫺.05 140.47 109.993 10.192.67 23.08 17.147.95 1.805.6436 4.125.591 22.925 50.5329 6.41 11.09 14.735.454.993 2.006048 .147.459 18.283.286 17.000783 ⫺.158.209.610.03 1.781.0152 4.843.212.56 107.129.354.349.741 33.990.9377 4.993 5.520.021606 ⫺.17 324.413.899.10 3.359 16.993 7.23 134.18 10.527.993 2.577.—RGDP p GDP (100 million.823.025393 ⫺.591.22 963.92 209.773.013125 ⫺.993 6.993 5.210.09 11.00 171.038171 Note.3771 2.6173 2.17 6.876.843 20. Dep p depreciation (100 million.448.6652 3.222.27 2.124 15.2783 5.73 12.61 8.0054 ⫺.753.942.910.839.284 36.005646 .91 16.491.26 347.644 30.132.073868 ⫺.349.012354 ⫺.017425 .223.20 1.03 9.0814 3.388.735.993 3.3018 2.993 12.32 911.1832 2.873.4432 3.9600 6.732.79 2.

6136 (. We find the sum of squares A of residuals from equation (6) using all observations 1952–98. yielding a coefficient of 0. per year. implying an average annual exponential rate of growth of 0.1960) ln K ln L .0262 (.6612 (. The Cochrane-Orcutt procedure is applied to estimate equation (6).5577 (0. IV. Accounting for China’s Economic Growth In table 1.jstor. Estimating a first-order autoregression for the residuals yields a coefficient of 0. 1978 yuan) in 1952 to 23.9979/.0465 .0263 (.633. 30) statistic for testing the stability of both the intercept and the first coefficient of equation (6) equals 1.7451 (.01 in 1998.17 Thus. The sum C of squared residuals for the 1978–98 period with 18 df is 0. with and without making this assumption are almost identical. By examining the Durbin-Watson (D-W) statistic of the residuals of equation (6).07315.1263. K p capital stock (100 million.32 (100 million.42 on Sat. The null hypothesis is that.6284 (.6%.129.0459 Note.4118 (. We also test whether the exponent of capital (and of labor under constant returns) remains unchanged after 1978 in the context of equation (6). s is the standard error of the regression.638 (shown in the last column of table 1). Chow and Kui-Wai Li 251 TABLE 2 China’s Aggregate Production Function: 1952–98 Intercept 1.0024) . Such parameter stability increases our confidence in using the equation for forecasting GDP growth for another decade.0468) for ln (K/L) and a trend coefficient of 0. Before economic reform began in 1978. we find that real GDP in China grew from 799. which equals 0. 1978 yuan). The F(2.1996) ln (K/L) Trend R 2/s .1.57. there was no increase in total factor productivity. the null hypothesis that the parameters of the Cobb-Douglas production function remained the same for the two subperiods cannot be rejected even at the 20% level (the critical value at the 20% level is 1.9946/. except for the trend term that starts in 1979.org/terms .4580) 1. the production function remains unchanged after 1978.6234 with a standard error of 0.2566. or 7. 26 Mar 2016 18:00:50 UTC All use subject to http://about.02283.03924. excluding 1958–69. with 32 degrees of freedom (df) to be 0.70). and the average annual exponential rate of growth from 1952 to 1978 (with real This content downloaded from 39. L p labor force (100 million).03028 (0.—Figures in parentheses are standard errors of the estimate. The prereform regression with 12 df has a sum B of squared residuals that is equal to 0. we have found a significant positive serial correlation.06727. This regression will be used to account for past output growth and to predict future output growth in the next section. with standard errors in parentheses.0040). and R2 is the adjusted R square.Gregory C. The estimate of the trend coefficient is thus robust against the assumption of constant returns to scale in aggregate production.0772) . indicating no remaining positive correlation.0258) .0025) . The D-W statistic of the residuals of this autoregression is 1.

0281). for example. or 54%.5577 (or 0.jstor. The three components add up to 0. The exponential rate of 0. the exponential rate of growth was 0. and to be reduced to zero. From 1978 to 1998.02776 times its coefficient 0. of the growth. Note that the coefficient 0. (The sum of the three differs from 100% because of rounding. We can simulate the path of China’s real GDP by using the estimated production function (eq. In equation (8) the coefficient 0.0303 results from the increase in total factor productivity.624.051 results from the increase in capital.01228) plus the exponential rate of growth of productivity of 0.252 Economic Development and Cultural Change GDP equal to 3. [3]). or 6. per year. We will use equations (3).4423 (or 0.3373 in equation (8) may be an underestimate.09267 is decomposed into the exponential rate of growth of capital of 0. [6]) corrected for autoregressive residuals and the capital formation equation (eq.1.0303.051/0. and 0. Let us consider what the growth in the decade following 1999 would be if growth in total factor productivity were to remain constant at 0. accounting for 0. the labor and investment functions can be constructed as follows: L t p (L t⫺1 ) # (1 ⫹ 0.09352. 26 Mar 2016 18:00:50 UTC All use subject to http://about. While capital accumulation is very important.3373RGDPt⫺1.09267 because the regression representing the CobbDouglas production function does not explain real GDP in the beginning and terminal years (1978 and 1998) exactly.0281 in equation (7) tends to be an overestimate because of the tight birth-control policy introduced in 1980 and that the coefficient 0.09352.05096) plus the exponential rate of growth of labor of 0.09352 exponential rate of growth explained.0281.0303. or 9.10) was only 0.09138 times its coefficient 0.012 results from the increase in labor.) This study has implications for China’s future growth. leaving only 13% to labor. This content downloaded from 39. which is slightly different from the observed increase of 0. productivity increase is also important. If we were to adjust the rate of investment upward to.0%. to be reduced by half to 0. 0. The importance of capital accumulation and increase in productivity in accounting for China’s economic growth in the postreform period of 1978–98 is a major conclusion of this article. 0.7%.3373 is the ratio of the sum of net investments to the sum of real GDP in 1978–98. or 32%. (8) The labor growth rate in the 1978–98 period is 0. 0. (7) It p 0.012 of the exponential growth rate of GDP—reducing it to half only means an effect of ⫺0. of the growth.0151. the stock of capital would be increased only slightly in the next decade since investment is a small fraction of capital.05814. According to the estimated production function of the 0.6 as much as the increase in capital stock.09267.09352. per year. The effect of the former on the future growth rate is small because labor accounts for only 0.03/0. as suggested by the higher investment rates in later years. accounting for 0.org/terms . and (8) for the simulation exercise.57. (6). and proportional increase in GDP would be about 0. (7).42 on Sat.036.006 on the exponential growth rate.

40 34. With zero productivity growth. Table 3 reports the results of three simulations. we repeat the same exercise except for the trend coefficient.79 36. this exponential growth rate would be further reduced to 0.0836 or an average annual growth rate of 8.09 .0836 .0495 .0664.03028 TFP p .57.012.962.698. Chow and Kui-Wai Li 253 TABLE 3 Simulated Real GDP: 1999–2010 Year 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Exponential growth Annual growth TFP p .320. 26 Mar 2016 18:00:50 UTC All use subject to http://about. which is reduced to 0.484.01514 TFP p . 1978 yuan).0.20 44.715. and so on. labor.806.Gregory C.122.0687 24.69 26.0303. This possible limitation was addressed in Chow. and capital in 1998 as initial values. Since there is no reason to expect sizable reduction in productivity growth.307. The first is obtained by simulating the model forward from 1999 to 2010 using historical values of real GDP. and its result is not seriously affected by biases in levels of the variables as long as the biases are persistent.05 69.33 30. which also both applied in the past.357.52 48.72% from 1998.5732 to make the estimated real GDP from the production function equal to the actual real GDP in 1998.72 31.org/terms . two for 2000. In the second and third simulations.82 33.037.12 27.94 51.15 30.699.27 39.72 28.12 26.319.83 29. one can expect annual growth in real output to be in the neighborhood of 7% or higher. implying an exponential rate of 0.915. Second.180.41 36.853.75 42.553.005.94 52. The time trend takes the value one for 1999.71 55.0664 .0495.379. The first is the accuracy of Chinese official data.579.04 .60 .70 62.470.—TFP p Total factor productivity.823.53 41. the independent variables have changed by This content downloaded from 39.0151 and 0.42 on Sat.1. respectively.85 40.00 32.0872 24.0 25. Concluding Remarks Before concluding.629.249. while the intercept is adjusted to 2.25 47.18 Here we wish to point out.00 38.206. Table 3 shows that under the assumption of total factor productivity growing at the past exponential rate of 0.88 43. V. the exponential rate of GDP growth up to 2010 would be reduced to 0. This conclusion is based on a stable relation between output and inputs and on a high investment rate.0507 Note.16 38.190. first. that this study is concerned with past trends of the important variables.18 44.393.96 27.430.89 36.607. real GDP in 2010 would be 69.576.847.540.198.037 (100 million.99 33.299.89 57. we would like to address briefly three possible limitations of this study.035.927.jstor. When total factor productivity growth is reduced by half.

By using such a simple model we are not able to isolate the contributions of human capital. using the levels of the variables is appropriate in order to estimate a cointegrating vector that represents the long-run stable relationship between output and inputs as desired.1. including those by Gary Jefferson. the adjustments might not eliminate all upward biases. Third. and Sherman Robinson. Shantong Li and Fan Zhai. Output and investment may be simultaneously determined. Thomas Rawski.org/terms . One such issue is the possible endogeneity of the explanatory variables. Zhang. the production function should be estimated using the levels of the variables rather than first differences or some other transformations. additional This content downloaded from 39. How these changes have contributed to the Solow residual is a topic beyond the scope of this study and remains an important topic for further research. Although the State Statistical Bureau has made attempts to adjust the possibly inflated data reported from provincial sources to meet output growth targets. A second econometric issue is whether.5 (labor) to 40 (capital). but investment is only a very small fraction of capital stock. a study using official data is valuable in providing an analysis of what these frequently used data imply concerning China’s economic growth process. 26 Mar 2016 18:00:50 UTC All use subject to http://about. In this case. but this problem may not be serious because both capital stock and labor supply appear to be exogenous and not influenced by output. Given the first two observations stated above.19 Neither does our model decompose the sources of growth by industrial sectors. We recognize that there have been important institutional changes leading to an increase in productivity and that technology has also been improved partly through foreign investment. which is mostly predetermined. It has been suggested that recent figures of Chinese output have been inflated partly because of political pressure.254 Economic Development and Cultural Change factors of 3. These biases in opposite directions cancel out to some extent. income data may be biased downward because some township and village enterprises may have underestimated their output and because output from the underground economy is missing from official data. as does the study by Shanggen Fan.42 on Sat. The second limitation of this study concerns econometrics issues. and improvement in allocation efficiencies to output growth as do other studies. technological change. This study only isolates the Solow residual after explaining the growth of output by the growths in physical capital and number of laborers.jstor.57. a skeptic has to explain in what way possible inaccuracies in Chinese official data can affect our study of the decomposition of aggregate output trends.20 There is a trade-off between the number of parameters and the accuracy of their estimates because of possible misspecification. as seen in table 1. Xiaobo Zhang. and Xiaolu Wang. making the effects of errors of measurement small because the downward bias of a regression coefficient depends on the ratio of the variance of the explanatory variable to the sum of this variance and the variance of the error of measurement. and Y. The third limitation of this study is the lack of explanation for the change in total factor productivity. in view of the possibility that some variables may be integrated of order one. On the other hand.

we do not need to forecast variables that determine changes in human capital. as it was found in works by Chow and also by N. For forecasting the near future.57. and David N. Using these two parameters alone.03 from 1978 to 1998. Chow and Kui-Wai Li 255 measurement errors. Weil. the valuable comments from an anonymous referee. and sectorial composition. it is unlikely that the 0. May 2000. City University of Hong Kong. The 0.1. For the purpose of forecasting. Thus. we need only two parameters. and the loss of degrees of freedom when more parameters are used. the elasticity of output with respect to capital and the coefficient of trend. Notes * The authors are indebted to the excellent assistance of Queenie Y.012. e. however. Alwyn Young and Paul Krugman) and whether the lack of such would inhibit future growth in these countries.6 figure is correct.03.6.6 times log(capital/labor) on time. Financial support from the Center for Economic Policy Study at Princeton University to Gregory Chow and from the University Grants Committee of the City University of Hong Kong to Kui-Wai Li is gratefully acknowledged. There was a substantial total factor productivity growth at the annual rate of about 0. one finds total factor productivity to have zero growth from 1952 to 1978 and to grow at an average exponential rate of approximately 0. Even if total factor productivity growth is to be reduced somewhat.Gregory C. who estimated the classic Solow growth model with a Cobb-Douglas production function using data for approximately 70 countries.6 figure is well supported empirically. Under the assumption of constant returns to scale. the estimate of the second parameter is also well supported.42 on Sat. 26 Mar 2016 18:00:50 UTC All use subject to http://about. David Romer.22 As far as China is concerned. historically). the 0.g.jstor.21 If the 0.01514 column in table 3 can serve as a very conservative estimate of China’s output growth even after allowing for the limited effect of a possible reduction in the growth of the labor force (labor’s contribution to the exponential growth rate was only 0. in the next decade the Chinese economy would still manage to grow at a substantial rate of at least 7% because of the expected high rate of capital formation of over 30% of GDP and the high capital elasticity of about 0. There has been a debate on whether substantial growth in total factor productivity occurred in selected East Asian countries (see. by regressing log(output/labor) minus 0. This content downloaded from 39. allocation efficiency. and one may allow for a slightly different trend in the growth of total factor productivity. this article has reached the following conclusions.03 figure will be reduced substantially from its past trend by as much as a half in the period ending 2010. and Anloh Lin.6 and 0.6 figure for the coefficient of capital is unlikely to change. Hence. respectively. participants in a seminar at Yale University. Since China still has plenty of opportunity to adopt new technology from abroad and to carry out additional institutional reforms.. technology.org/terms . which are estimated to be about 0. Wu of the APEC Study Center. which is strongly supported by the data. P. Jin Zhang. Gregory Mankiw. we have been able to obtain a reasonably accurate decomposition of output growth in China.03 in China during the period 1978–98. the TFP p 0.

Shantong Li and Fan Zhai. Chow. Ibid. This content downloaded from 39. and Y. table 7. 4. p.. We have estimated eq. 13–53. 7. 1999. 14. 1999. 824. 1999. Ibid. “A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth. “Capital Formation. 5. Ibid. 21. 51). Shanggen Fan. 1985). Xiaobo Zhang. 3. 53 (International Food Policy Research Institute. Chinese State Statistics Bureau. “A Tale of Two Cities: Capital Factor Accumulation and Technical Change in Hong Kong and Singapore.. pp. 66). SYC. January 15–16.. Olivier J. Ibid. 1992). The Chinese Economy (New York: Harper & Row. “Sources of China’s Economic Growth in the Past Twenty Years” (both papers presented at the Workshop on Economic Growth in China. Beijing. Ibid. See Gregory C. 2000). 6.jstor. 66). and Sherman Robinson.org/terms . Measurement Issues. and found regression results very similar to the one reported in table 1 using the official series without adjustment. Ibid. 1996. p. p. 93) that the data on employed persons since 1990 have been adjusted in accordance with a new survey on population. Statistical Yearbook of China (hereafter SYC. October 1999). and “Capital Formation” (n. Chow. Paul Krugman.42 on Sat. 58.” Journal of Comparative Economics 23 (1996): 146–80. p. 67.. Chow. 13. Mass. 17. Blanchard and Stanley Fisher (Cambridge. table 7. D.. table 7. 67. Ibid. SYC. It was stated in SYC (1997. eq. “Past and Future Sources of Growth for China. p. Ibid. p. 1 above). 1997–99). and David N. and “The Tyranny of Number: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience. 4.. p. 1 above). 2.. 67. 1997. Thomas Rawski. See Chow. 1995. 67. Gregory C. p. 72. 1994 (SYC.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 110 (August 1995): 641–80. 9.1.: MIT Press. Washington. 1998. Gary Jefferson.” EPTD Discussion Paper no. 22. 1996 (SYC. 55. David Romer. 822. ed. This is possible because nominal depreciation values of individual provinces are available for 1993 (SYC. “Capital Formation and Economic Growth in China. 18. 8. F p [(A ⫺ B ⫺ C)/2]/[(B ⫹ C)/30].C. 12. 16. “An Analysis of the Chinese Economy in the Next Twenty Years”. and Xiaolu Wang.. Ibid. “Chinese Industrial Productivity: Trends. (6) using the old labor data up to 1995 (SYC.” 19. Zhang. 51). and 1998 (SYC.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 108 (August 1993): 809–42. 15.16. 41). 1996).” Foreign Affairs 73 (November–December 1994): 62–78. p. “Capital Formation” (n. Beijing: Chinese State Statistics Bureau. p. “The Myth of Asia’s Miracle.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 107 (1992): 407–38. 20. pp. 1997 (SYC.57. 10. Alwyn Young. and an adjusted labor series by eliminating the jump from the new series (SYC. 11. Ibid. Gregory Mankiw. 1999). p. N. p. p.” in NBER Macroeconomic Annual 1992. There is a big jump in the reported labor force between 1989 and 1990. Weil. and Recent Developments. 26 Mar 2016 18:00:50 UTC All use subject to http://about.256 Economic Development and Cultural Change 1.