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Safriyana (F34130002)

Task 3
System Analysist and Decision Making (Prof. Dr. Ir. Marimin, M.Sc)
CHAPTER 4
G.1. Choose the right answer!
1.
2.
3.
4.

A. Uncertainty from the considered of criteria value.


B. Possibility from considered event.
D. All methods (a, b, and c) can apply.
A. Priority of decision alternative choosed with the maximum value of the minimum
payoffs value for each alternative.
5. C. Priority of decision alternative choosed with the minimum value of the maximum
payoffs value for each alternative.
G.2. Answer it shortly!

Subcontract
New facilities
Do nothing

0,1
Low
$ 10
-$ 120
$ 20

0,5
Medium
$ 50
$ 25
$ 40

0,4
High
$ 90
$ 200
$ 60

1.

a. Maximax solution is $ 200 (build new facilities)


b. Maximin solution is $ 20 (do nothing)
c. Minimax regret solution
Alternatives

States of Nature

Low
Medium
High
Subcontract
20 - 10 = $ 10
50 - 50 = $ 0
200 - 90 = $ 110
New facilities 20 - (-120) = $ 140 50 - 25 = $ 25
200 - 200 = $ 0
Doing nothing
20 - 20 = $ 0
50 - 40 = $ 10
200 - 60 = $ 140
From the minimax regret solution table, we get that the minimum solution are ($
110, $ 140, $ 140) or equal to $ 110 (subcontract).
d. Hurwicz Solution
0,1
0,5
0,4
Alternatives
Hurwicz Solution
Mediu
Low
High
m
Subcontract
$ 10
$ 50
$ 90
0,1 (10) + 0,5 (50) + 0,4 (90) = $ 62
New facilities -$ 120
$ 25
$ 200 0,1 (-120) + 0,5 (25) + 0,4 (200) = $ 80,5
Doing nothing
$ 20
$ 40
$ 60
0,1 (20) + 0,5 (40) + 0,4 (60) = $ 46
The conclusion from hurwicz solution is $ 80,5 (build new facilities)
e. Equal Likehood Solution
0,333
0,333
0,3333
3
3
Alternatives
Equal Likehood Solution
Low Medium High

$ 800 000
$ 280 000
Subcontract

$ 10

$ 50

$ 90

0,33333 (10) + 0,3333 (50) + 0,3333 (90) = $ 50


$ 200
000(-120) + 0,3333 (25) + 0,3333 (200) = $
0,33333
New facilities
-120
$ 25
$ 200
35
Doing nothing
$ 20
$ 40
$ 60 $0,33333
(20) + 0,3333 (40) + 0,3333 (60) = $ 40
233 000
From the equal likehood solution table,
get that the maximum solution are ($
$ 40we000
50, $ 35, $ 40) or equal to $ 50 (subcontract).
2.
$ 220 000
0,6
$ 20 000

0,4

0,4

With expansion

0,6

Without expansion

Do nothing
Small facilities

Success

High

EV without expansion = 0,4 (233 000) + 0,6 (200 000) = $ 213 200
Promotion
EV with expansion = 0,4 (280 000) = $ 112 000 Fail
EV do nothing = 0,4 (800 000) + 0,6 (40 000) = $ 344 000
Big facilities
EV promotion = 0,6 (0,6 (200 000) + 0,4 (20 000)) = $ 76 800
The maximum value of payoffs is $ 344 000 with the alternative decision is the
retailer build the new big facilities and do nothing for the two states of nature.
3. There are two possibilities of states of nature, are good economic condition and bad
economic condition. But, the decision maker has no control over it and the decision
maker is uncertain which state of nature will occur. Usually, states of nature divide to 2
variables (good and bad, high and low, rich and poor, etc) or 3 variables (good, netral,
and bad; high, medium, and low, etc).
4. The sum of decision alternatives depend on how many the alternatives that the retailer
can take over the probabilities of it and its payoffs value. The three decision
alternatives usually use by, are doing subcontract with other company, build new
facilities, and do nothing. The alternatives choose based on the demand (known as
states of nature, divide to low-high or low-medium-high).
5. In the minimax regret decision making, regret means that the decision maker would
have regret over not to make a decision that really wanted by because the decision
maker choose the minimum payoffs value of the payoffs he can receive.