Socio-Political Research Unit Socio

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SPEC BAROMETER RESULTS SEPTEMBER 2007

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BROAD OBJECTIVES
The Social Political Economic and Cultural (SPEC) Barometer is carried out by the Steadman Group on quarterly basis in Kenya with the following broad objectives: • To assist policy-makers, advocacy and interest groups, media practitioners, and ordinary citizens to make more accurate assessments of the state of public opinion. To provide systematic and representative data for short and longer term tracking so as to measure changes over time in public attitudes and behaviour patterns on a variety of sectoral, regional and national issues. To promote, in general, understanding and the use of accurate information based on reliable, scientific surveys, and in so doing, promote more informed public debate on policy issues.
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SPECIFIC SURVEY OBJECTIVES
Specifically, the objectives of this part of the survey were to: • track the level of approval of the government and President’s performance track the popularity of various political parties track the popularity of various presidential aspirants

• •

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POLL METHODOLOGY
SAMPLE SIZE: 2040 adults aged 18 years and above

SAMPLE DISTRIBUTION:

Sample distributed population proportion to size across the 8 provinces

FIELDWORK DATES: The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 27th August and 4th September 2007

METHOD:

All interviews carried out at household level

QUALITY CONTROLS: Field supervisors made a minimum of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers’ calls,
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"Which political party do you feel closest to, if any?" (Time series)

60%

ODM-Kenya PaNu

NARC FORD-K

KANU ODM

50%
37% 30% 25% 30% 26% 23% 20% 17% 16% 18% 24% 19% 14% 10% 24% 19% 21% 35% 32% 36% 33%

38%

24% 17%
17%

230%
17%

19%

19%

21%
13%

10%
2% 1% 6% 4% 1% 7% 3% 1% 4% 1% 2% 1%

0%

1% 0% 0%

2% 0% 0%

0% 0%

1% 0% 0%

1% Mar-06

Sept-05

Oct-05

Nov-05

Dec-05

Jul-06

Oct-06

Dec-06

Mar-07

Sept-07

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ODM remains the most popular single party and at a slightly higher level compared to March (45% now compared to 34% for ODM-Kenya then).

Total support for Narc and Narc-K, combined, has dropped significantly in the last three months, now being less than that of ODM for the first time (34% compared to 38%).

The number of those who do not identify with any party has increased from 13% to 21% during this same period.

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