Peter Brown, Assistant

Director,
Quinnipiac University Polling
Institute
(203) 582-5201

Rubenstein Associates, Inc.

Public Relations
FOR RELEASE: MAY 12, 2010

SPECTER-SESTAK DEM PRIMARY TOO CLOSE TO CALL,

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY PENNSYLVANIA POLL FINDS;
TOOMEY HAS BIG LEAD IN REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak continues his stretch run in the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate primary and now
trails incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter by a too-close-to-call 44 – 42 percent among likely
Democratic primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 14
percent of Democrats are undecided, and 29 percent of those who name a candidate say they
might change their mind.
The Democratic winner is likely to face Republican Pat Toomey who holds a 60 – 9
percent lead over Peg Luksik among likely Republican primary voters.
In the Democratic primary for Governor, Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato gets
38 percent of likely voters, trailed by state Auditor General Jack Wagner with 11 percent, State
Sen. Tony Williams with 10 percent and Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel with 9
percent. But 32 percent remain undecided and 56 percent of those choosing a candidate say they
might change their mind.
The Democratic winner seems destined to face Attorney General Tom Corbett who leads
State Rep. Sam Rohrer 57 – 14 percent in the GOP gubernatorial primary, compared to his 58 – 7
percent lead in Quinnipiac University’s April poll.
The Specter-Sestak race has narrowed from a 47 – 39 percent Specter lead May 4 and a
53 – 32 percent Specter lead April 7.
“Sen. Arlen Specter has a history of winning close elections and he’ll need that to
continue because his once commanding lead is gone. His margin over Sestak is too close to call,”
said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
-more-
Quinnipiac University Poll/May 12, 2010 – page 2
“The intangibles are clearly on Sestak’s side. He has the momentum and the anti-
incumbent wave sweeping the country is a good omen for the challenger,” Brown added.
“Troubling for Specter is that one in seven likely primary voters are undecided and incumbents –
especially 30-year incumbents who have switched parties – rarely get much of the undecided
vote.”
Specter does better among women, 44 – 38 percent, while men go 47 percent for Sestak
and 44 percent for Specter.
Specter’s support is slightly weaker than Sestak’s as 34 percent of the incumbent’s voters
say they might change their mind, compared to 25 percent of the challenger’s backers.
Specter remains better known than Sestak, with a 50 – 33 percent favorability. By
comparison, Sestak gets a 42 – 10 percent favorability, with 46 percent saying they don’t know
enough about him to have an opinion.
“Faced with these numbers, Pennsylvania TV viewers can expect to see as many television
commercials as Specter can afford in the final week, trying to convince that 46 percent who don’t
know enough about Sestak that he is not their kind of guy,” said Brown.
Onorato’s lead over the rest of the Democratic gubernatorial field is little changed from
last week when he received 36 percent, Hoeffel 9 percent, Wagner and Williams 8 percent each.
“Dan Onorato’s lead over the Democratic field hasn’t really grown over the past week, but
with only seven days until the actual voting, his chances of winning the Democratic nomination
for Governor certainly are better than the rest,” said Brown. “Although more than half of likely
voters say they might change their mind, the odds that enough of them do, and all go to the same
candidate other than Onorato seem very, very small.”
From May 5 – 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 945 Pennsylvania likely Democratic
primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points, and 995 likely Republican
primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent. The sample is drawn from registered
voter lists based on people who have voted in recent elections.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public
opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the
nation as a public service and for research.
For more data or RSS feed– http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or
follow us on Twitter.

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1a. If the Democratic primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for
Dan Onorato, Jack Wagner, Tony Williams or Joe Hoeffel? (If undecided q1a) As of today,
would you say that you lean a little more toward Onorato, Wagner, Williams or Hoeffel?
(This table includes "Leaners".)

LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS

Tot Men Wom

Onorato 38% 40% 36%

Wagner 11 13 10
Williams 10 9 10
Hoeffel 9 13 7
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - -
DK/NA 32 23 37

TREND: If the Democratic primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for
Dan Onorato, Jack Wagner, Tony Williams or Joe Hoeffel? (If undecided q1a) As of today,
would you say that you lean a little more toward Onorato, Wagner, Williams or Hoeffel?
(This table includes "Leaners".)

LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS

May 12 May 4 Apr 7
2010 2010 2010

Onorato 38 36 20
Wagner 11 8 13
Williams 10 8 5
Hoeffel 9 9 15
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - -
DK/NA 32 37 47

1aa. (If express choice q1a) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your
mind before the primary?

LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS......

CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q1a..........
CAND CHOICE Q1a.........
Tot DO JW TW JH

Made up 42% 45% 40% 31% 44%

Might change 56 53 57 68 56
DK/NA 2 2 3 1 -

TREND: (If express choice q1a) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change
your mind before the primary?

LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS

CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q1a
May 12 May 4 Apr 7
2010 2010 2010

Made up 42 36 27
Might change 56 60 70
DK/NA 2 4 2

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2a. If the Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, would you
vote for Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak? (If undecided q2a) As of today, would you say that
you lean a little more toward Specter or Sestak? (This table includes "Leaners".)

LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS

Tot Men Wom

Specter 44% 44% 44%

Sestak 42 47 38
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - -
DK/NA 14 8 17

TREND: If the Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, would
you vote for Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak? (If undecided q2a) As of today, would you say
that you lean a little more toward Specter or Sestak? (This table includes "Leaners".)

LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS

May 12 May 4 Apr 7
2010 2010 2010

Specter 44 47 53
Sestak 42 39 32
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - -
DK/NA 14 14 15

2aa. (If express choice q2a) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your
mind before the primary?

LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS

CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q2a.
CAND CHOICE Q2a
Tot AS JS

Made up 70% 66% 74%

Might change 29 34 25
DK/NA 1 1 1

TREND: (If express choice q2a) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change
your mind before the primary?

LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS

CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q2a
May 12 May 4 Apr 7
2010 2010 2010

Made up 70 63 62
Might change 29 35 37
DK/NA 1 2 2

3a. Is your opinion of - Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
Tot Men Wom

Favorable 50% 53% 48%

Unfavorable 33 37 31
Hvn't hrd enough 11 7 14
REFUSED 5 3 6

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TREND: Is your opinion of Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard
enough about him?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
May 12 May 4 Apr 7
2010 2010 2010

Favorable 50 57 60
Unfavorable 33 31 26
Hvn't hrd enough 11 9 12
REFUSED 5 4 2

4a. Is your opinion of - Joe Sestak favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
Tot Men Wom

Favorable 42% 49% 37%

Unfavorable 10 10 10
Hvn't hrd enough 46 38 51
REFUSED 2 3 2

TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Sestak favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
May 12 May 4 Apr 7
2010 2010 2010

Favorable 42 43 33
Unfavorable 10 11 6
Hvn't hrd enough 46 44 58
REFUSED 2 2 2

5a. Is your opinion of - Dan Onorato favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS

Tot Men Wom

Favorable 43% 48% 41%

Unfavorable 9 12 8
Hvn't hrd enough 44 38 48
REFUSED 3 3 3

TREND: Is your opinion of Dan Onorato favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
May 12 May 4 Apr 7
2010 2010 2010

Favorable 43 46 27
Unfavorable 9 5 6
Hvn't hrd enough 44 46 64
REFUSED 3 3 2

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6a. Is your opinion of - Jack Wagner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
Tot Men Wom

Favorable 19% 23% 17%

Unfavorable 6 7 6
Hvn't hrd enough 72 67 76
REFUSED 2 4 2

TREND: Is your opinion of Jack Wagner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
May 12 May 4 Apr 7
2010 2010 2010

Favorable 19 17 20
Unfavorable 6 6 5
Hvn't hrd enough 72 75 73
REFUSED 2 2 2

7a. Is your opinion of - Joe Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
Tot Men Wom

Favorable 15% 22% 11%

Unfavorable 7 9 6
Hvn't hrd enough 76 67 82
REFUSED 2 2 2

TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
May 12 May 4 Apr 7
2010 2010 2010

Favorable 15 15 18
Unfavorable 7 6 4
Hvn't hrd enough 76 77 75
REFUSED 2 2 2

8a. Is your opinion of - Tony Williams favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
Tot Men Wom

Favorable 16% 17% 16%

Unfavorable 10 12 8
Hvn't hrd enough 72 70 74
REFUSED 2 1 2

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TREND: Is your opinion of Tony Williams favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard
enough about him?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
May 12 May 4 Apr 7
2010 2010 2010

Favorable 16 17 6
Unfavorable 10 7 3
Hvn't hrd enough 72 73 90
REFUSED 2 3 1

9a. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you trust more to do in office what they
say they will do during the campaign, Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak?

LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS

Tot Men Wom

Specter 40% 42% 39%

Sestak 33 38 30
NO DIFF(VOL) 10 11 9
DK/NA 17 9 23

TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you trust more to do in office what
they say they will do during the campaign, Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak?

LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS

May 12 May 4 Apr 7
2010 2010 2010

Specter 40 42 43
Sestak 33 31 26
NO DIFF(VOL) 10 7 6
DK/NA 17 20 25

10a. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe most shares your values,
Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak?

LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS

Tot Men Wom

Specter 40% 39% 40%

Sestak 38 43 34
NO DIFF(VOL) 5 5 4
DK/NA 18 13 22

TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe most shares your values,
Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak?

LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS

May 12 May 4 Apr 7
2010 2010 2010

Specter 40 41 42
Sestak 38 34 26
NO DIFF(VOL) 5 3 4
DK/NA 18 22 27

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11a. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you see as more consistently liberal,
Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak?

LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS

Tot Men Wom

Specter 35% 35% 35%

Sestak 33 41 29
NO DIFF(VOL) 3 3 3
DK/NA 29 21 34

TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you see as more consistently liberal,
Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak?

LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS

May 12 May 4 Apr 7
2010 2010 2010

Specter 35 35 35
Sestak 33 29 26
NO DIFF(VOL) 3 3 2
DK/NA 29 33 36

12a. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would be more likely to win
the November general election if nominated, Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak?

LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS

Tot Men Wom

Specter 54% 54% 54%

Sestak 29 32 27
NO DIFF(VOL) 1 2 1
DK/NA 16 12 19

TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would be more likely to win
the November general election if nominated, Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak?

LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS

May 12 May 4 Apr 7
2010 2010 2010

Specter 54 60 58
Sestak 29 23 21
NO DIFF(VOL) 1 1 1
DK/NA 16 17 20

1b. If the Republican primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for
Tom Corbett or Sam Rohrer? (If undecided q1b) As of today, would you say that you lean
a little more toward Corbett or Rohrer? (This table includes "Leaners".)

LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS

Tot Men Wom

Corbett 57% 60% 55%

Rohrer 14 15 14
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - -
DK/NA 28 25 31

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TREND: If the Republican primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for
Tom Corbett or Sam Rohrer? (If undecided q1b) As of today, do you lean a little more
toward Corbett or Rohrer? (This table includes "Leaners".)

LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS

May 12 Apr 7
2010 2010

Corbett 57 58
Rohrer 14 7
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - -
DK/NA 28 35

1ab. (If express choice q1b) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your
mind before the primary?

LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS

CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q1b.
CAND CHOICE Q1b
Tot TC SR

Made up 43% 40% 56%

Might change 54 57 41
DK/NA 3 4 3

TREND: (If express choice q1b) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change
your mind before the primary?

LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS

CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q1b
May 12 Apr 7
2010 2010

Made up 43 32
Might change 54 64
DK/NA 3 4

2b. If the Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, would you
vote for Pat Toomey or Peg Luksik? (If undecided q2b) As of today, would you say that you
lean a little more toward Toomey or Luksik? (This table includes "Leaners".)

LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS

Tot Men Wom

Toomey 60% 68% 53%

Luksik 9 7 10
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - -
DK/NA 31 24 37

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2ab. (If express choice q2b) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your
mind before the primary?

LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS

CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q2b.
CAND CHOICE Q2b
Tot PT PL

Made up 51% 53% 34%

Might change 48 46 62
DK/NA 1 1 5

3b. Is your opinion of - Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS

Tot Men Wom

Favorable 48% 58% 39%

Unfavorable 4 4 3
Hvn't hrd enough 47 37 57
REFUSED 1 1 2

4b. Is your opinion of - Peg Luksik favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about her?

LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS

Tot Men Wom

Favorable 12% 15% 9%

Unfavorable 6 6 5
Hvn't hrd enough 81 77 84
REFUSED 2 2 2

5b. Is your opinion of - Tom Corbett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS

Tot Men Wom

Favorable 57% 63% 52%

Unfavorable 7 7 6
Hvn't hrd enough 34 28 38
REFUSED 3 2 4

TREND: Is your opinion of Tom Corbett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS

May 12 Apr 7
2010 2010

Favorable 57 51
Unfavorable 7 3
Hvn't hrd enough 34 44
REFUSED 3 2

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6b. Is your opinion of - Sam Rohrer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS

Tot Men Wom

Favorable 19% 22% 17%

Unfavorable 3 3 3
Hvn't hrd enough 76 74 78
REFUSED 2 1 2

TREND: Is your opinion of Sam Rohrer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS

May 12 Apr 7
2010 2010

Favorable 19 8
Unfavorable 3 2
Hvn't hrd enough 76 88
REFUSED 2 2

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