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You are on page 1of 14

Quantitative Introduction to Risk and

Uncertainty in Business

12-1

Chapter Twelve

Inference about a Population

12-2

3/23/2016

Student t Distribution

11-3

Student t Distribution

In addition to mean, m, and standard deviation, s,

the Student t distribution also requires degrees of

freedom, n, be specified.

11-4

3/23/2016

Student t Distribution

P(t t A ,n ) P

11-5

Student t Distribution

11-6

3/23/2016

Student t Distribution

11-7

Estimating m when

s is unknown

When s is unknown, we must estimate the

standard deviation with its point estimator s.

11-8

3/23/2016

Estimating m when

s is unknown

When s is unknown, we must estimate the

standard deviation with its point estimator s.

When we use the point estimator s, we must

use the Student t distribution so we do not

overestimate our confidence in the results.

11-9

Estimating m when

s is unknown

Substitute into the probability equation

s

s

P x t 2,n

m x t 2,n

1

n

n

11-10

3/23/2016

Estimating m when

s is unknown

Substitute into the probability equation

s

s

P x t 2,n

m x t 2,n

1

n

n

interval estimate of m when the population

standard deviation is unknown.

11-11

Estimating m when

s is unknown

Substitute into the probability equation

s

s

P x t 2,n

m x t 2,n

1

n

n

x t 2,n

s

n

11-12

3/23/2016

Estimating m when

s is unknown

Substitute into the probability equation

s

s

P x t 2,n

m x t 2,n

1

n

n

x t 2,n

s

n

s

n

11-13

Estimating m when

s is unknown

Substitute into the probability equation

s

s

P x t 2,n

m x t 2,n

1

n

n

which is a measure of how frequently the

interval will include m.

11-14

3/23/2016

Estimating m when

s is unknown

Lets investigate the interval estimate using the

data from Example 10.1. Doll Computers

11-15

Test statistic

x m

s n

with n=n-1 degrees of freedom

12-16

3/23/2016

Lets investigate Example 12.1

12-17

Sample proportion

x

n

P p

p(1 p) / n

12-18

3/23/2016

Test statistic

P p

p(1 p) / n

np and n(1-p) are greater than 5.

12-19

Confidence Interval

p z 2 p(1 p) / n

12-20

10

3/23/2016

Lets investigate Example 12.5

12-21

Sample size to estimate the proportion

B z 2 p(1 p) / n

12-22

11

3/23/2016

Sample size to estimate the proportion

B z 2 p(1 p) / n

By rearranging the formula algebraically

z 2 p(1 p)

12-23

So, if we want our error to be no larger than 0.03

1.96 p(1 p)

0.03

12-24

12

3/23/2016

Problem: we need an estimate of the proportion

Method 1

p 0.5

It is the most conservative value we can choose

12-25

Problem: we need an estimate of the proportion

Method 1

p 0.5

It is the most conservative value we can choose

2

32.672 1,068

n

0.03

12-26

13

3/23/2016

Problem: we need an estimate of the proportion

Method 2

Set the proportion to the best estimate you have

12-27

Problem: we need an estimate of the proportion

Method 2

Set the proportion to the best estimate you have

2

26.132 683

n

0.03

12-28

14

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