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Quantitative Introduction to Risk and

Uncertainty in Business

9-1

Chapter Nine

Sampling Distributions

9-2

10/15/2015

Statistical Inference

Converts data to information

collecting sample data and calculating the

corresponding sample statistics.

We expect our estimates to be close,

but how close?

9-5

Sampling Distribution

of the Mean

Lets investigate the throwing of a fair die

Let x = the # of spots on one throw

9-9

10/15/2015

Sampling Distribution

of the Mean

Lets now investigate the throwing of two fair dice

We will also calculate x .

distribution of x two time i.e. n=2.

9-12

9-13

10/15/2015

Sampling Distribution

of the Mean

We can now create a distribution of x.

We call this

the sampling distribution of

x.

9-16

Sampling Distribution

of the Mean

We can calculate the parameters of the

distribution of x .

9-19

10/15/2015

Sampling Distribution

of the Mean

Compare the distribution of x

9-21

Sampling Distribution

of the Mean

Note also that

x

2

x

2

n

9-22

10/15/2015

Sampling Distribution

of the Mean

Lets investigate how the sampling distribution

of the mean changes as we

increase the sample size, n.

9-23

n=5

n=10

n=25

9-26

10/15/2015

Sampling Distribution

of the Mean

These relationships define the

sampling distribution of x .

x

2

x

2

n

standard error

n

9-31

The sampling distribution of the mean of a

random sample drawn from any population is

approximately normal for a sufficiently large

sample size.

The larger the sample size, the more closely the

sampling distribution of x will resemble a normal

distribution.

9-33

10/15/2015

Sampling Distribution

of the Mean

Lets look at Example 9.1

the amount of soda in each 32-ounce bottle is

actually a normally distributed random variable

with a mean of 32.2 ounces and a standard

deviation of 0.3 ounces.

9-34

Sampling Distribution

of the Mean

If a customer buys one bottle, what is the

probability that the bottle

will contain more than 32 ounces?

P X 32 ?

32.2

0.3

X 32 32.2

P X 32 P

0.3

P Z 0.67

1 P Z 0.67 1 0.2514 0.7486

9-39

10/15/2015

Sampling Distribution

of the Mean

If a customer buys a carton of four bottles, what is

the probability that the mean amount of the four

bottles will be greater than 32 ounces?

0.3

x 32.2

x

0.15

P X 32 ?

4

X x 32 32.2

P X 32 P

0.15

x

P Z 1.33

1 P Z 1.33 1 0.0918 0.9082

9-44

Sampling Distribution

of the Mean

9-47

10/15/2015

Sampling Distribution

of the Sample Proportion

Lets define the sample proportion of a

population to be the number of successes in a

sample of n.

X

P

n

9-49

Sampling Distribution

of the Sample Proportion

P is approximately normally distributed provided

np and n(1-p) are greater than or equal to 0.5.

E P p

p1 p

V P p2

n

p p1 p n

standard error of the

proportion

9-54

10

10/15/2015

Sampling Distribution

of the Sample Proportion

Lets investigate Example 9.2

received 52% of the votes cast.

One year after the election, the representative

organized a survey that asked a random sample

of 300 people whether they would vote for him in

the next election.

9-56

Sampling Distribution

of the Sample Proportion

If we assume that his popularity has not changed,

what is the probability that more than half of the

sample would vote for him?

P P 0.50 ?

n 300

p 0.52

P p

0.50 0.52

P P 0.50 P

p1 p n

.0288

P Z 0.69

1 P Z 0.69 1 0.2451 0.7549

9-61

11

10/15/2015

Statistical Inference

9-64

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