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# 10/15/2015

## OPRE 6301/SYSM 6303

Quantitative Introduction to Risk and
9-1

Chapter Nine
Sampling Distributions

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Statistical Inference
Converts data to information

## We can estimate population parameters by

collecting sample data and calculating the
corresponding sample statistics.
We expect our estimates to be close,
but how close?

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Sampling Distribution
of the Mean
Lets investigate the throwing of a fair die
Let x = the # of spots on one throw

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Sampling Distribution
of the Mean
Lets now investigate the throwing of two fair dice

## For each die, we note the value of x.

We will also calculate x .

## This is equivalent to sampling from the same

distribution of x two time i.e. n=2.
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Sampling Distribution
of the Mean
We can now create a distribution of x.

We call this
the sampling distribution of

x.
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Sampling Distribution
of the Mean
We can calculate the parameters of the
distribution of x .

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Sampling Distribution
of the Mean
Compare the distribution of x

## with the distribution of x .

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Sampling Distribution
of the Mean
Note also that

x

2
x

2
n

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Sampling Distribution
of the Mean
Lets investigate how the sampling distribution
of the mean changes as we
increase the sample size, n.

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n=5

n=10

n=25
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Sampling Distribution
of the Mean
These relationships define the
sampling distribution of x .

x

2
x

2
n

standard error

n
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## Central Limit Theorem

The sampling distribution of the mean of a
random sample drawn from any population is
approximately normal for a sufficiently large
sample size.
The larger the sample size, the more closely the
sampling distribution of x will resemble a normal
distribution.
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Sampling Distribution
of the Mean
Lets look at Example 9.1

## The foreman of a bottling plant has observed that

the amount of soda in each 32-ounce bottle is
actually a normally distributed random variable
with a mean of 32.2 ounces and a standard
deviation of 0.3 ounces.

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Sampling Distribution
of the Mean
If a customer buys one bottle, what is the
probability that the bottle
will contain more than 32 ounces?

P X 32 ?

32.2

0.3

X 32 32.2
P X 32 P

0.3

P Z 0.67
1 P Z 0.67 1 0.2514 0.7486
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Sampling Distribution
of the Mean
If a customer buys a carton of four bottles, what is
the probability that the mean amount of the four
bottles will be greater than 32 ounces?
0.3
x 32.2
x
0.15
P X 32 ?
4
X x 32 32.2

P X 32 P

0.15
x
P Z 1.33
1 P Z 1.33 1 0.0918 0.9082
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Sampling Distribution
of the Mean

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Sampling Distribution
of the Sample Proportion
Lets define the sample proportion of a
population to be the number of successes in a
sample of n.

X
P
n

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Sampling Distribution
of the Sample Proportion
P is approximately normally distributed provided
np and n(1-p) are greater than or equal to 0.5.

E P p
p1 p
V P p2
n

p p1 p n

## We refer to this as the

standard error of the
proportion

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Sampling Distribution
of the Sample Proportion
Lets investigate Example 9.2

## In the last election, a state representative

One year after the election, the representative
organized a survey that asked a random sample
of 300 people whether they would vote for him in
the next election.
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Sampling Distribution
of the Sample Proportion
If we assume that his popularity has not changed,
what is the probability that more than half of the
sample would vote for him?

P P 0.50 ?

n 300

p 0.52

P p
0.50 0.52
P P 0.50 P

p1 p n
.0288

P Z 0.69
1 P Z 0.69 1 0.2451 0.7549

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Statistical Inference

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