2009

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Application

Genetic Algorithm Optimizing Neural Network for Short-Term Load Forecasting
Wang Wu, Wang Guozhi, Zhang Yuanmin, Wang Hongling
Electro-information College, Xuchang University, Xuchang 461000, China
jhwlz@tom.com
need resume signal model and therefore widely used. Timeseries forecasting can be consider as a mathematical reflect
which computing future trend by historical data, the model
that use m historical data forecasting future trend ahead step
is given by:

ABSTRACT: Short-term load forecasting in power system is
necessary for management and contrl of power system. A new
method for short-term load forecasting was presented based on
neural networks optimized by genetic algorithm(GA) is proposed
in this paper, short-term load forecasting model for power system
was setup as sample sets for Elman neural network(Elman NN),
with GA’s optimizing and Elman NN’s dynamic feature, the
higher forecasting pricision was realized and the simulation
indicates the method is feasible and effective.

X (i ), X (i + 1),"" X (i + k )

KEYWORDS: Genetic Algorithm; Neural Network; Power
System; Short-Term Load Forecasting

I.

Where i = m + 1, m + 2,"", ( N − m − k ) / s is sample
date for ANN’s study, N is length of sample data, s is
slider amount often equal to 1.This paper adopt ANN which
is Elman Recurrent Network for time-series forecasting
because it can approach reflect nexus implicit in sample data
and it also has high generalize ability [9].

INTRODUCTION

Short-term load forecasting for power system often
concerned as forecasting by month, week or day, it is
necessary for management and control for power system and
the result deeply influence the power system’s safety and
economy. There was many factors influence forecasting and
the indexes of performance are variable, the trend is
stochastic, so, it is hard to enhance the precision of
forecasting and find an effective method is significant.
The traditional time-series method is hard to establish its
statistical characters and identify non-stable statue which
used in 80s mentioned as in [1]. In 1970s, Sijesen adopt
spectrum decompounds technique and applied to real system,
Toyoda utilize state space model and Kalman filter online
forecasting, Rahman adopt an expert system for short term
load forecast. Gray model and Artificial Neural Network
(ANN) successfully applied to load forecasting in 90s, as in
[2-5]. Support Vector Machines (SVM) also applied to
forecasting and studied wildly as in [6]. ANN was regard as
most prospective method for load forecasting as in [7], BP
neural networks was often adopted, but it is a static neural
network, have many shortcomings like it can step into local
minimum without integral optimization for the adoption of
nonlinear grades algorithm, learning with low efficiency and
convergence with low speed for the iterative times, the nodes
of hide layer was hard to make a decision and information
interchange with low speed for it has no feedback
connection. This paper adopts Elman dynamic neural
networks and optimizing with Genetic Algorithm, so the
high precision is acquired.
II.

III.

ELMAN RECURRENT NETWORK (ERN)

Elman proposed this network in 1990, the network model
add a continue layer as delay operator in hidden layer of feed
forward neural network, it can realize remember function
and make system adaptive and dynamic.
A. ERN’s network model
ERN’s network are four layers model which are input
layer, middle layer, continue layer and output layer, the
structure as shown in Fig. 1. In ERN’s network, input layer
for signal transfer and output layer for linear weighting.
Hidden layer can adopt linear or non-linear transfer function,
the continue layer which also called context layer and statue
layer, which remember the output value before and always
regard as delay operator. So the network was sensible with
historical data and inner layer’s feedback enhances network
process dynamic information [10].
y(k )

x(k )

w3
""

x1

xc1 ""

xn
w1

w2

SHORT-TERM LOAD FORECASTING PRINCIPLE

There was two methods used into time-series forecasting,
one is parameters forecasting method and another is nonparameters forecasting method as in [8]. ANN adopted
method is a non-parameters forecasting method which not
978-0-7695-3600-2/09 $25.00 © 2009 IEEE
DOI 10.1109/IFITA.2009.326

(1)

= p ( X (i − 1), X (i − 2), X (i − m))

u (k − 1)

Figure 1. Elman network structure

583

xcn

The load of power system often influenced by
temperature, environment, time area and holidays as in [12],
if take all these into account, the analysis and realization will
be more complex, in order to describe the method more
convenient, here only take care about NN’s forecasting
capability for historical data.
Take a week day for forecasting with divide one day into
four time segments, the unitary load data are proposed as
Table 2. With Monday to Saturday’s data as training sample,
every three days’ load as input vector and the fourth day’s
load as output vector. So the three group sample date get and
take Sunday’s data as testing sample.

B. ERN’s study process
ERN’s non-linear state space expression is given by:

y (k ) = g ( w 3 x(k ))

(2)

x(k ) = f ( w1 x c (k ) + w 2 u (k − 1))

(3)

xc (k ) = u (k − 1)

(4)

TABLE II.

m dimension output node vector,
n dimension middle layer node vector, r dimension input
Where y , x, u , x c are

vector and
3

2

WEEK

n dimension feedback statue vector respectively.
1

w , w , w are connection weights from middle layer to
output layer, input layer to middle layer and continue layer to
middle layer respectively. g (⋅) is transfer function of output
neuron, which are linear combination of middle layer’s
output. f (⋅) is transfer function of middle layer neuron,
Sigmoid function was often used [11].
ERN’s connection weights adjusted with error square
sum function is given by:
n

E ( w) =

Where

~


⎢ y k ( w) − y k ( w)⎥

k =1 ⎣

2

(5)

M entries output
X N +1 , X N + 2 , …… , X N + M

X 2 , X 3 , ……, , X N +1

X N + 2 , X N +3 , …… , X N + M +1

X K , X K +1 , … , X N + K −1

0.8113

Tuesday

0.4179

0.4477

0.6781

0.7802

Wednesday

0.4317

0.4525

0.6806

0.8001

Thursday

0.4357

0.4590

0.6819

0.8011

Friday

0.4401

0.4611

0.6901

0.8098

Saturday

0.4412

0.4645

0.6988

0.8112

Sunday

0.4415

0.4691

0.7201

0.8330

OPTIMIZE NN’S WEIGHTS BASED GA

Performance is 0.000275082, Goal is 0

1

10

0

Training-Blue

10

SEGMENT METHOD FOR SAMPLE DATA

……

0.6653

For ERN’s weight adjust adopt BP’s algorithm, training
is eyeless and maybe into local minimum, which make
network adaptive capability decrease, the precision decrease
and even halt search optimum. As simulation, the sample
data is little and have a good effect, but if applied this
method for a big sample space, it will show its
disadvantages. So the NN’s weight was trained by GA. GA
is a search algo-

C. Sample design, structure and training
Short-term load forecasting for power system is a
numeric serial arranged by time sequence, it is hard to
describe with certain functions or equations. The forecasting
method based on NN often by training networks with
historical data. When forecasting M entries future value by
the N historical data, take N entries adjacent sample as
slider window and reflect them as M entries value,
this M entries value denote M entries sample forecasting
value behind the slider window. We divide training
data K segment with length ( N + M ) overlapped each
other, inputs and outputs show in Table 1.

N entries input

Monday

0.4507

IV.

X 1 , X 2 , …… , X N

LOAD DATA
0.4213

By preceding design, the NN have 12 neuron input layer
and 4 neuron output layer as in [13]. Train step was 1000,
when middle layer has 19 neurons, the effect is best, we can
get the training error is 0.000275082 as Fig. 2 shows.

j
yk ( w) is target output vector.

TABLE I.

LOAD DATA OF POWER SYSTEM

-1

10

-2

10

-3

10

middle layer is 19

-4

10

……

X N + K , X N + K +1 , … X N + M + K −1

0

100

200

300

400
500
600
1000 Epochs

700

800

Figure 2. Performance of neural network training

584

900

1000

rithm based natural selection and nature gene, including
three element operators: selection operator, crossover
operator and mutation operator. GA often applied to NN for
training weight, designing network structure and find
optimum study rules, now the network structure determined
and we use GA adjust NN’s weight. Network in this paper
have 12 neuron in input layer, 4 neuron in output layer and
19 neuron in middle layer, we only optimize the weight from
input layer to middle layer 12×19=228 connection weights
and the weight from middle layer to output layer 19×4=76
connection weights, the continue layer to middle layer is
changed according to ERN’s dynamic feature. The algorithm
of the evolving neural networks used is as follows:
Step1. Encoding: programming wi j to binary code with

V.

Short-term load forecasting for power system concerned
as forecasting by week was presented with one day divided
into four segment periods, the sample data was presented.
Because BP neural networks have many shortcomings, so in
this paper, the ERN’s forecasting models was realized basis
of the short-term load forecasting theory for power system,
the strategy of sample design and network training were also
proposed. ERN training and ERN trained by GA was
simulated, the simulation shows that with ERN trained by
GA, the convergence quickly and more suitable for big
sample data space, the method in this paper is feasible and
effective. On the other hand, because there was many factors
influence forecasting and the indexes of performance are
variable, the trend is stochastic, so, it is hard to forecasting
more precise, also it’s a pity that this paper doesn’t take
weather, temperature, environment etc into account, if all
these are considered; the method will be more practical and
scientific and the application of this method will wildly
applied into management and control for power system and
enhance the power system’s safety and economy.

length is l .
Step2. Generate initial population: coding NN’s node,
make the weight wi j as bit string which denote individual,
many individuals generate population.
Step3. Fitness function computing: make NN’s energy
function E which is output nodes error as basis
function, F = C / E , here C is a constant.
Step4. Selection: adopt fitness-proportionate selection,10
percent of population which has max fitness into next
generation, other 90 percent determined by its fitness.
Step5. Crossover: with one-point crossover, crossover
rate equal to 0.8.
Step6. Mutation: with simple mutation and mutation rate
equal to 0.02.
Step7. With t = t + 1 and computing fitness.
Step8. If stop criteria satisfied, the process will stopped;
else, return to Step 4.
Step9. Find the excellent weights string as NN’s weights,
end the process.
Without changing NN’s structure and with table2’s data,
under NN’s weights optimized by GA, crossover rate equal
to 0.8, mutation rate equal to 0.02, training step 1000, the
performance as shown in Fig. 3, we can get the error is
0.000105934 which is more little than ERN without
optimized by GA.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT
It is a project supported by natural science research in
office of education, HeNan Province (2008A510014).
REFERENCES
[1]

[2]
[3]

[4]

[5]
[6]
[7]

Performance is 0.000105934, Goal is 0

1

10

[8]
0

10

Training-Blue

[9]
-1

10

[10]
-2

10

[11]
-3

10

optimized with GA without layer changed

[12]

-4

10

0

100

200

300

400
500
600
1000 Epochs

700

800

900

CONCLUSIONS

1000

[13]

Figure 3. Performance of NN training optimized by GA

585

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