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2009 International

International Forum

Forum on

on Information

Information Technology

Technology and

and Applications

Application

**Genetic Algorithm Optimizing Neural Network for Short-Term Load Forecasting
**

Wang Wu, Wang Guozhi, Zhang Yuanmin, Wang Hongling

Electro-information College, Xuchang University, Xuchang 461000, China

jhwlz@tom.com

need resume signal model and therefore widely used. Timeseries forecasting can be consider as a mathematical reflect

which computing future trend by historical data, the model

that use m historical data forecasting future trend ahead step

is given by:

**ABSTRACT: Short-term load forecasting in power system is
**

necessary for management and contrl of power system. A new

method for short-term load forecasting was presented based on

neural networks optimized by genetic algorithm(GA) is proposed

in this paper, short-term load forecasting model for power system

was setup as sample sets for Elman neural network(Elman NN),

with GA’s optimizing and Elman NN’s dynamic feature, the

higher forecasting pricision was realized and the simulation

indicates the method is feasible and effective.

X (i ), X (i + 1),"" X (i + k )

**KEYWORDS: Genetic Algorithm; Neural Network; Power
**

System; Short-Term Load Forecasting

I.

Where i = m + 1, m + 2,"", ( N − m − k ) / s is sample

date for ANN’s study, N is length of sample data, s is

slider amount often equal to 1.This paper adopt ANN which

is Elman Recurrent Network for time-series forecasting

because it can approach reflect nexus implicit in sample data

and it also has high generalize ability [9].

INTRODUCTION

**Short-term load forecasting for power system often
**

concerned as forecasting by month, week or day, it is

necessary for management and control for power system and

the result deeply influence the power system’s safety and

economy. There was many factors influence forecasting and

the indexes of performance are variable, the trend is

stochastic, so, it is hard to enhance the precision of

forecasting and find an effective method is significant.

The traditional time-series method is hard to establish its

statistical characters and identify non-stable statue which

used in 80s mentioned as in [1]. In 1970s, Sijesen adopt

spectrum decompounds technique and applied to real system,

Toyoda utilize state space model and Kalman filter online

forecasting, Rahman adopt an expert system for short term

load forecast. Gray model and Artificial Neural Network

(ANN) successfully applied to load forecasting in 90s, as in

[2-5]. Support Vector Machines (SVM) also applied to

forecasting and studied wildly as in [6]. ANN was regard as

most prospective method for load forecasting as in [7], BP

neural networks was often adopted, but it is a static neural

network, have many shortcomings like it can step into local

minimum without integral optimization for the adoption of

nonlinear grades algorithm, learning with low efficiency and

convergence with low speed for the iterative times, the nodes

of hide layer was hard to make a decision and information

interchange with low speed for it has no feedback

connection. This paper adopts Elman dynamic neural

networks and optimizing with Genetic Algorithm, so the

high precision is acquired.

II.

III.

ELMAN RECURRENT NETWORK (ERN)

**Elman proposed this network in 1990, the network model
**

add a continue layer as delay operator in hidden layer of feed

forward neural network, it can realize remember function

and make system adaptive and dynamic.

A. ERN’s network model

ERN’s network are four layers model which are input

layer, middle layer, continue layer and output layer, the

structure as shown in Fig. 1. In ERN’s network, input layer

for signal transfer and output layer for linear weighting.

Hidden layer can adopt linear or non-linear transfer function,

the continue layer which also called context layer and statue

layer, which remember the output value before and always

regard as delay operator. So the network was sensible with

historical data and inner layer’s feedback enhances network

process dynamic information [10].

y(k )

x(k )

w3

""

x1

xc1 ""

xn

w1

w2

SHORT-TERM LOAD FORECASTING PRINCIPLE

**There was two methods used into time-series forecasting,
**

one is parameters forecasting method and another is nonparameters forecasting method as in [8]. ANN adopted

method is a non-parameters forecasting method which not

978-0-7695-3600-2/09 $25.00 © 2009 IEEE

DOI 10.1109/IFITA.2009.326

(1)

= p ( X (i − 1), X (i − 2), X (i − m))

u (k − 1)

Figure 1. Elman network structure

583

xcn

**The load of power system often influenced by
**

temperature, environment, time area and holidays as in [12],

if take all these into account, the analysis and realization will

be more complex, in order to describe the method more

convenient, here only take care about NN’s forecasting

capability for historical data.

Take a week day for forecasting with divide one day into

four time segments, the unitary load data are proposed as

Table 2. With Monday to Saturday’s data as training sample,

every three days’ load as input vector and the fourth day’s

load as output vector. So the three group sample date get and

take Sunday’s data as testing sample.

**B. ERN’s study process
**

ERN’s non-linear state space expression is given by:

y (k ) = g ( w 3 x(k ))

(2)

x(k ) = f ( w1 x c (k ) + w 2 u (k − 1))

(3)

xc (k ) = u (k − 1)

(4)

TABLE II.

**m dimension output node vector,
**

n dimension middle layer node vector, r dimension input

Where y , x, u , x c are

vector and

3

2

WEEK

**n dimension feedback statue vector respectively.
**

1

**w , w , w are connection weights from middle layer to
**

output layer, input layer to middle layer and continue layer to

middle layer respectively. g (⋅) is transfer function of output

neuron, which are linear combination of middle layer’s

output. f (⋅) is transfer function of middle layer neuron,

Sigmoid function was often used [11].

ERN’s connection weights adjusted with error square

sum function is given by:

n

E ( w) =

Where

~

⎡

⎤

⎢ y k ( w) − y k ( w)⎥

⎦

k =1 ⎣

∑

2

(5)

M entries output

X N +1 , X N + 2 , …… , X N + M

X 2 , X 3 , ……， , X N +1

X N + 2 , X N +3 , …… , X N + M +1

X K , X K +1 , … , X N + K −1

0.8113

Tuesday

0.4179

0.4477

0.6781

0.7802

Wednesday

0.4317

0.4525

0.6806

0.8001

Thursday

0.4357

0.4590

0.6819

0.8011

Friday

0.4401

0.4611

0.6901

0.8098

Saturday

0.4412

0.4645

0.6988

0.8112

Sunday

0.4415

0.4691

0.7201

0.8330

OPTIMIZE NN’S WEIGHTS BASED GA

Performance is 0.000275082, Goal is 0

1

10

0

Training-Blue

10

SEGMENT METHOD FOR SAMPLE DATA

……

0.6653

**For ERN’s weight adjust adopt BP’s algorithm, training
**

is eyeless and maybe into local minimum, which make

network adaptive capability decrease, the precision decrease

and even halt search optimum. As simulation, the sample

data is little and have a good effect, but if applied this

method for a big sample space, it will show its

disadvantages. So the NN’s weight was trained by GA. GA

is a search algo-

**C. Sample design, structure and training
**

Short-term load forecasting for power system is a

numeric serial arranged by time sequence, it is hard to

describe with certain functions or equations. The forecasting

method based on NN often by training networks with

historical data. When forecasting M entries future value by

the N historical data, take N entries adjacent sample as

slider window and reflect them as M entries value,

this M entries value denote M entries sample forecasting

value behind the slider window. We divide training

data K segment with length ( N + M ) overlapped each

other, inputs and outputs show in Table 1.

N entries input

Monday

0.4507

IV.

X 1 , X 2 , …… , X N

LOAD DATA

0.4213

**By preceding design, the NN have 12 neuron input layer
**

and 4 neuron output layer as in [13]. Train step was 1000,

when middle layer has 19 neurons, the effect is best, we can

get the training error is 0.000275082 as Fig. 2 shows.

j

yk ( w) is target output vector.

TABLE I.

LOAD DATA OF POWER SYSTEM

-1

10

-2

10

-3

10

middle layer is 19

-4

10

……

X N + K , X N + K +1 , … X N + M + K −1

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1000 Epochs

700

800

Figure 2. Performance of neural network training

584

900

1000

**rithm based natural selection and nature gene, including
**

three element operators: selection operator, crossover

operator and mutation operator. GA often applied to NN for

training weight, designing network structure and find

optimum study rules, now the network structure determined

and we use GA adjust NN’s weight. Network in this paper

have 12 neuron in input layer, 4 neuron in output layer and

19 neuron in middle layer, we only optimize the weight from

input layer to middle layer 12×19=228 connection weights

and the weight from middle layer to output layer 19×4=76

connection weights, the continue layer to middle layer is

changed according to ERN’s dynamic feature. The algorithm

of the evolving neural networks used is as follows:

Step1. Encoding: programming wi j to binary code with

V.

**Short-term load forecasting for power system concerned
**

as forecasting by week was presented with one day divided

into four segment periods, the sample data was presented.

Because BP neural networks have many shortcomings, so in

this paper, the ERN’s forecasting models was realized basis

of the short-term load forecasting theory for power system,

the strategy of sample design and network training were also

proposed. ERN training and ERN trained by GA was

simulated, the simulation shows that with ERN trained by

GA, the convergence quickly and more suitable for big

sample data space, the method in this paper is feasible and

effective. On the other hand, because there was many factors

influence forecasting and the indexes of performance are

variable, the trend is stochastic, so, it is hard to forecasting

more precise, also it’s a pity that this paper doesn’t take

weather, temperature, environment etc into account, if all

these are considered; the method will be more practical and

scientific and the application of this method will wildly

applied into management and control for power system and

enhance the power system’s safety and economy.

length is l .

Step2. Generate initial population: coding NN’s node,

make the weight wi j as bit string which denote individual,

many individuals generate population.

Step3. Fitness function computing: make NN’s energy

function E which is output nodes error as basis

function, F = C / E , here C is a constant.

Step4. Selection: adopt fitness-proportionate selection,10

percent of population which has max fitness into next

generation, other 90 percent determined by its fitness.

Step5. Crossover: with one-point crossover, crossover

rate equal to 0.8.

Step6. Mutation: with simple mutation and mutation rate

equal to 0.02.

Step7. With t = t + 1 and computing fitness.

Step8. If stop criteria satisfied, the process will stopped;

else, return to Step 4.

Step9. Find the excellent weights string as NN’s weights,

end the process.

Without changing NN’s structure and with table2’s data,

under NN’s weights optimized by GA, crossover rate equal

to 0.8, mutation rate equal to 0.02, training step 1000, the

performance as shown in Fig. 3, we can get the error is

0.000105934 which is more little than ERN without

optimized by GA.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

It is a project supported by natural science research in

office of education, HeNan Province (2008A510014).

REFERENCES

[1]

[2]

[3]

[4]

[5]

[6]

[7]

Performance is 0.000105934, Goal is 0

1

10

[8]

0

10

Training-Blue

[9]

-1

10

[10]

-2

10

[11]

-3

10

optimized with GA without layer changed

[12]

-4

10

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1000 Epochs

700

800

900

CONCLUSIONS

1000

[13]

Figure 3. Performance of NN training optimized by GA

585

**Niu Dongxiao, Cao shuhua, Zhao Lei. “Power Load Forecast
**

Technology & Application,”. Beijing: China Electric Power

press,1998, pp. 188-204

D.P.Sijesen. Short Term Load Forecasting in Power System.proc.25th

Annual ISA Conf. Philadelphia. PA. oct., 1970, pp. 26-29

J.Toyoda,M.Chen,Y.Inoue. “An Application of state Estimation to

Short-Term Load Forecastin,”. IEEE Trans.Power Appar. Syst. Vol.

PAS-89. 5, 1970, pp. 1678-1688

S.Rahman,R.Bhatnagar. “An expert System Based Algorithm for

Short -Term Load Forecast,” IEEE Trans. On power systems. 3,1988,

pp. 392-399.

Dongxiao Niu. “Adjustment gray model for load forecasting of power

systems,” IEEE Trans on PWRS, 1990, pp. 1535-1547

Wang Xihuai, Zhu Shifeng, “Ship Power Load Forecasting Using

Support Vector Machine,” Proceedings of CSEE. 10. 2004, pp. 36-39

Khotanzad A. Afkhami-Rohani R,Maratukukulam D. “ANNSTLFArtificial Neural Network Short-time Load Forecaster-generation

three,”.IEEE Trans. On Power Systems, 4.1998, pp. 1413-1422

Pandit S M, Wu S M. “Time series and system analysis with

applications,”. New york: John Wiley,1993, pp. 56-103

Narendra K S,Parthasarathy K. “Indentification and Control for

Dynamic Systems Using Neural Networks,” IEEE Trans,Neural

Networks ,1990, pp. 4-27

[Chen Haoyong, Wang Xifan. “A Genetic Algorithm with Annealing

Selection for Reactive Power Optimization,” Electric Power, 2, 1998,

pp., 3-6

Krishnakumar K and Goldberg D E. Control System Optimization

Using Genetic Algorithms.J.Guidance, Control, Dyn,1994, pp. 735740

J.A. Feldman et al., “Computing with Structured connectionist

Networds,” Comm.ACM, Feb,1988.

R.J.Williams and D.Zipser,:A learning Algorithm for Cont- inually

Running

Fully

Recurrent

Neural

Networks,:

Neural

Computation,Vol.1,1989,pp.270-280.

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