So Donald Trump is serious about running for President.

There are some implications for the financial and investing communities.

But first, to address the well-founded skepticism after previous teases at runs
each election cycle since 2000: Trump is running in the Republican primary
and has just filed the requisite documents with the Federal Election
Commission. He has the funds to tackle the ballot access requirements in each
state, and to hire the brains to strategize a successful run.
In those respects, Trump evokes a comparison to an equally iconoclastic
predecessor who ran twice for President in 1992 and 1996: H. Ross Perot.
Now, Trump has a big advantage over Perot in that while it is far easier to get
to the general election as a self-financing independent, it is far easier to
actually win if you are the nominee of one of the two major parties.

(Full disclosure): Perot's campaign committee was my first legal client ever,
and I was just one year into law school. I was one of his election law and
petition advisers and press people in New York in 1992. I was there. I know.)

Can He Win?

While a discussion of the mechanics and road map for his victory would take a
much longer treatment, I offer some quick pointers.
Remember that running to win the Republican nomination is about
delegates, not votes. Not all states are equal. Some states have more
delegates at the conventions than their populations might suggest.
Some states are "winner take all," meaning the popular vote winner, even if
less than 50% of the vote, gets all that state's delegates.

This feature alone is responsible for the establishment Republican favorites

(e.g., Dole, Bush, McCain, Romney) running up the score and vanquishing their
competitors rather early in the primary season.
Other states have a proportionate awarding of delegates based on the vote.
This is how a candidate with financial or organizational "staying power" can
survive early-primary defeats and remain in the race, because compiling
delegates can keep you in the contest while others drop out.
This is how Ron Paul got his delegate counts and watch for his son Rand to use
the same strategy to become one of the last candidates standing.

You think Republicans alone determine their nominee? There are 18 states in
which voters can choose the party primary they wish to vote in on primary
day. That's 18 states in which Democrats and independent voters can help
choose the GOP nominee. That's not counting states where one can switch or
enroll in a party on primary day or shortly before it. This means you can have
"party raiding" or "party infiltration," both of which were ruled legal in the
1970 Supreme Court case Rosario v. Rockefeller.

This is also how candidates like Chris Christie plan to win primaries by
appealing to cross-over voters.

Yet other states have a caucus system to award delegates, and organizing in
those caucuses trumps (no pun intended) a so-called "air war" aimed at rankand-file voters.
So can Trump win the general election?
Ignore the polls, which treat the general election as if it were one big
popular vote. It isn't. The presidential election is 50 different states voting for
delegates. And all that matters is winning in enough states to get to 270
electoral votes.
The result of the preceding point is that a smart Republican candidate should
write off so-called heavy-Democratic-leaning states (e.g., New York). Trump
might be the exception. His name recognition is strongest in New York.

Finally, what could this mean for the financial community?

Trump's defining characteristic is an apparent emotional strength to avoid

chasing the approval of others. The lack of a need to be a member of "the
club" means Trump will force initiatives through Congress no matter their
unpopularity with a certain establishment clique. Simply put, Trump won't
care about being well-received by Congress.
An extension of this theme is that Trump's iconoclastic nature will be wellreceived by much of the electorate outside the major establishment
metropolitan areas like New York, Chicago, Washington and Boston. Trump
could actually sell himself as a populist and rail against the entrenched
interests and "too big to fail" institutions.
Trump cannot be controlled. That is a game-changer. He would be unlike
what anyone else has seen in the last 20-25 years?

 Congressional opposition from the establishment -- of both parties -- would

be fierce, but no one would be better than Trump at highlighting this point
and galvanizing grassroots public support and outrage against such opposition.
Trump, being no crony, might present an unique opportunity to open up the
financial industry to new players and new ways of doing things.
The ultimate result? It's possible a President Trump would be the most
democratic, populist President many of us have ever seen. He could usher in a
new era of truly open and free competition. That simple point alone could
spark an economic revival.

Can this actually happen? Can we have a President Trump?

He has the finances and the temperament to pull it off. The biggest question
and challenge for him will be being able to withstand the criticism and abuse
one takes as a candidate these days.

Should he be able to complete those points, a Trump candidacy could open up

and democratize the markets in ways we have yet to conceive.

Thank you,
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