Social Weather Stations 5/14/10 11:58 AM

12 May 2010

TV5-SWS 2010 EXIT POLL

PHILIPPINES
Exit Poll Sample of 35,825 voters from 731 out of 802 sampled voting centers
encoded as of 9:00 p.m. of May 11, 2010.
(Aired on TV5 at 9:30 p.m., May 12, 2010)

Updated May 13, 2010: Added Tables 3 to 8.

I. THE VOTES

Table 1. VOTES FOR PRESIDENT

Table 1.a VOTES FOR PRESIDENT, BY CLASS
Table 1.b VOTES FOR PRESIDENT, BY EDUCATION
Table 1.c VOTES FOR PRESIDENT, BY RELIGION
Table 1.d VOTES FOR PRESIDENT, BY AGE GROUP
Table 2. VOTES FOR VICE-PRESIDENT
Table 2.a VOTES FOR VICE-PRESIDENT, BY VOTES FOR PRESIDENT
Table 2.b VOTES FOR VICE-PRESIDENT, BY CLASS
Table 2.c VOTES FOR VICE-PRESIDENT, BY EDUCATION
Table 2.d VOTES FOR VICE-PRESIDENT, BY RELIGION
Table 2.e VOTES FOR VICE-PRESIDENT, BY AGE GROUP

II. THE VOTERS

Table 3. Voters' main reason for choosing their President: PLATFORM or PERSONALITY?
Table 4. When did voters decide on their choice for President?
Table 5. Was voting easier or harder now?
Table 6. Expected change in the quality of governance
Table 7. Expected change in personal quality of life
Table 8. Expected change in Philippine economy

I. THE VOTES

Table 1. WHO DID YOU VOTE FOR AS PRESIDENT?

Exit Poll Sample
of 35,825 voters
encoded as of 9PM,
May 11, 2010
AQUINO BENIGNO SIMEON III C. 'NOYNOY' 43
ESTRADA EJERCITO JOSEPH M. 'ERAP' 25
VILLAR, MANUEL JR. B. 'MANNY' 14
TEODORO GILBERTO JR. C. 'GIBO' 10
VILLANUEVA EDUARDO C. 'BRO. EDDIE' 4
GORDON RICHARD J. 'DICK' 1
ACOSTA VETELLANO S. 'DODONG' 1
MADRIGAL JAMBY A. S. 'JAMBY' 0.2
DE LOS REYES JOHN CARLOS G. 'JC' 0.2
PERLAS JESUS NICANOR P. 'NICK' 0.1
CAN'T ANSWER/REFUSED 1
100%
"Question. Sino po ang inyong ibinoto bilang PRESIDENTE, BISE-PRESIDENTE, at mga SENADOR?
(SHOW LIST)
Who did you vote for as PRESIDENT, VICE-PRESIDENT, and SENATORS? (SHOW LIST)"

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Table 1.a VOTES FOR PRESIDENT, BY CLASS (%)

Exit Poll Sample
of 35,825 voters
ABC D E
encoded as of 9PM,
May 11, 2010
AQUINO BENIGNO SIMEON III C. 'NOYNOY' 43 46 43 37

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ESTRADA EJERCITO JOSEPH M. 'ERAP' 25 20 27 33

VILLAR, MANUEL JR. B. 'MANNY' 14 13 15 16
TEODORO GILBERTO JR. C. 'GIBO' 10 13 9 8
VILLANUEVA EDUARDO C. 'BRO. EDDIE' 4 4 3 3
GORDON RICHARD J. 'DICK' 1 2 1 1
ACOSTA VETELLANO S. 'DODONG' 1 0.4 1 1
MADRIGAL JAMBY A. S. 'JAMBY' 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3
DE LOS REYES JOHN CARLOS G. 'JC' 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.05
PERLAS JESUS NICANOR P. 'NICK' 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
CAN'T ANSWER/REFUSED 1 1 1 1
100% 100% 100% 100%

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Table 1.b VOTES FOR PRESIDENT, BY EDUCATION (%)

Exit Poll
Sample
of
35,825 ELEM
NONE/ HS GRAD/ SOME COLLEGE CAN'T
voters GRAD/
SOME VOC/VOC/ SOME GRAD/ ANSWER/
encoded SOME
ELEM COLLEGE POST REFUSED
as of HS
9PM,
May 11,
2010
AQUINO BENIGNO
SIMEON III C. 43 38 40 44 47 42
'NOYNOY'
ESTRADA
EJERCITO JOSEPH 25 28 31 25 15 22
M. 'ERAP'
VILLAR, MANUEL
14 17 15 14 13 12
JR. B. 'MANNY'
TEODORO
GILBERTO JR. C. 10 9 8 10 16 9
'GIBO'
VILLANUEVA
EDUARDO C. 'BRO. 4 3 3 4 4 4
EDDIE'
GORDON RICHARD
1 1 1 1 3 1
J. 'DICK'
ACOSTA
VETELLANO S. 1 1 1 1 0.3 1
'DODONG'
MADRIGAL JAMBY
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
A. S. 'JAMBY'
DE LOS REYES
JOHN CARLOS G. 0.2 0.02 0.1 0.2 0.2 1
'JC'
PERLAS JESUS
NICANOR P. 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
'NICK'
CAN'T
1 3 1 1 1 8
ANSWER/REFUSED
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

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Table 1.c VOTES FOR PRESIDENT, BY RELIGION (%)

Exit Poll
Sample
of
35,825 OTHER
IGLESIA OTHER
voters NON-
CATHOLIC NI ISLAM CHRIS- REFUSED
encoded CHRIS-
CRISTO TIANS
as of TIANS
9PM,
May 11,
2010
AQUINO BENIGNO
SIMEON III C. 43 43 77 47 26 29 42

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'NOYNOY'
ESTRADA
EJERCITO JOSEPH 25 27 10 13 24 25 23
M. 'ERAP'
VILLAR, MANUEL
14 14 5 28 14 18 11
JR. B. 'MANNY'
TEODORO
GILBERTO JR. C. 10 11 3 7 12 13 9
'GIBO'
VILLANUEVA
EDUARDO C. 'BRO. 4 1 0.4 2 19 14 5
EDDIE'
GORDON RICHARD
1 2 1 0.5 2 1 1
J. 'DICK'
ACOSTA
VETELLANO S. 1 1 1 1 1 0.4 1
'DODONG'
MADRIGAL JAMBY
0.2 0.2 1 0.2 0.1 0 0.4
A. S. 'JAMBY'
DE LOS REYES
JOHN CARLOS G. 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.04 0.1 0 1
'JC'
PERLAS JESUS
NICANOR P. 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.02 0.1 0 0.2
'NICK'
CAN'T
1 1 1 1 1 0 7
ANSWER/REFUSED
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

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Table 1.d VOTES FOR PRESIDENT, BY AGE GROUP (%)

Exit Poll
Sample
of 35,825
voters 55 &
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 REFUSED
encoded ABOVE
as of 9PM,
May 11,
2010
AQUINO BENIGNO
43 41 43 42 44 44 42
SIMEON III C. 'NOYNOY'
ESTRADA EJERCITO
25 23 26 27 25 24 23
JOSEPH M. 'ERAP'
VILLAR, MANUEL JR. B.
14 15 15 13 14 14 12
'MANNY'
TEODORO GILBERTO JR.
10 13 9 10 9 10 9
C. 'GIBO'
VILLANUEVA EDUARDO
4 4 3 4 4 3 3
C. 'BRO. EDDIE'
GORDON RICHARD J.
1 2 1 2 1 2 0
'DICK'
ACOSTA VETELLANO S.
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
'DODONG'
MADRIGAL JAMBY A. S.
0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3
'JAMBY'
DE LOS REYES JOHN
0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 1
CARLOS G. 'JC'
PERLAS JESUS NICANOR
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3
P. 'NICK'
CAN'T
1 0.5 1 1 1 1 9
ANSWER/REFUSED
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

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Table 2. WHO DID YOU VOTE FOR AS VICE-PRESIDENT?

Exit Poll Sample
of 35,825 voters
encoded as of 9PM,
May 11, 2010

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BINAY JEJOMAR C. 'JOJO' 40.7

ROXAS MANUEL A. 'MAR' 38.3
LEGARDA LOREN B. 'LOREN' 10.6
FERNANDO BAYANI F. 'BF' 3.0
MANZANO EDUARDO B. 'EDU' 1.6
YASAY PERFECTO R. 'KIDLAT' 1.5
CHIPECO DOMINADOR JR. F. 'JUN' 0.5
SONZA JOSE Y. 'JAY SONZA' 0.2
CAN'T ANSWER/REFUSED 3.6
100%

"Question. Sino po ang inyong ibinoto bilang PRESIDENTE, BISE-PRESIDENTE, at mga SENADOR?
(SHOW LIST)
Who did you vote for as PRESIDENT, VICE-PRESIDENT, and SENATORS? (SHOW LIST)"

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Table 2.a VOTES FOR VICE-PRESIDENT, BY VOTES FOR PRESIDENT (Column %)

Exit Poll Sample
of 35,825 voters
AQUINO ESTRADA VILLAR TEODORO OTHERS
encoded as of 9PM,
May 11, 2010
BINAY 40.7 26.2 72.2 36.4 38.8 29.6
ROXAS 38.3 64.7 12.0 23.5 29.7 14.8
LEGARDA 10.6 5.2 9.4 31.8 9.5 7.0
OTHERS 10.4 3.9 6.4 8.3 22.0 48.5
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

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Table 2.b VOTES FOR VICE-PRESIDENT, BY CLASS (%)

Exit Poll Sample
of 35,825 voters
ABC D E
encoded as of 9PM,
May 11, 2010
BINAY JEJOMAR C. 'JOJO' 40.7 42.3 41.6 38.8
ROXAS MANUEL A. 'MAR' 38.3 41.0 39.1 33.2
LEGARDA LOREN B. 'LOREN' 10.6 7.4 10.8 15.6
FERNANDO BAYANI F. 'BF' 3.0 4.0 2.2 2.9
MANZANO EDUARDO B. 'EDU' 1.6 1.2 1.6 2.1
YASAY PERFECTO R. 'KIDLAT' 1.5 2.1 1.3 1.0
CHIPECO DOMINADOR JR. F. 'JUN' 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6
SONZA JOSE Y. 'JAY SONZA' 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
CAN'T ANSWER/REFUSED 3.6 1.5 2.6 5.6
100% 100% 100% 100%

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Table 2.c VOTES FOR VICE-PRESIDENT, BY EDUCATION (%)

Exit Poll
Sample
of
35,825 ELEM
NONE/ HS GRAD/ SOME COLLEGE CAN'T
voters GRAD/
SOME VOC/VOC/ SOME GRAD/ ANSWER/
encoded SOME
ELEM COLLEGE POST REFUSED
as of HS
9PM,
May 11,
2010
BINAY JEJOMAR C.
40.7 33.6 40.2 44.2 39.3 33.9
'JOJO'
ROXAS MANUEL A.
38.3 32.6 36.3 39.1 44.0 34.2
'MAR'
LEGARDA LOREN
10.6 15.8 13.6 9.2 6.6 10.3
B. 'LOREN'
FERNANDO
3.0 2.8 2.9 2.4 4.9 2.4

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3.0 2.8 2.9 2.4 4.9 2.4

BAYANI F. 'BF'
MANZANO
1.6 2.9 2.0 1.3 0.9 1.9
EDUARDO B. 'EDU'
YASAY PERFECTO
1.5 1.3 1.2 1.4 2.5 1.1
R. 'KIDLAT'
CHIPECO
DOMINADOR JR. 0.5 1.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6
F. 'JUN'
SONZA JOSE Y.
0.2 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.6
'JAY SONZA'
CAN'T
3.6 9.2 3.3 1.8 1.3 14.8
ANSWER/REFUSED
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

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Table 2.d VOTES FOR VICE-PRESIDENT, BY RELIGION (%)

Exit Poll
Sample
of
35,825 OTHER
IGLESIA OTHER
voters NON-
CATHOLIC NI ISLAM CHRIS- REFUSED
encoded CHRIS-
CRISTO TIANS
as of TIANS
9PM,
May 11,
2010
BINAY JEJOMAR C.
40.7 42.4 14.9 45.4 42.3 43.2 35.1
'JOJO'
ROXAS MANUEL A.
38.3 39.1 74.4 16.2 28.6 26.9 34.5
'MAR'
LEGARDA LOREN
10.6 10.1 4.5 29.4 9.6 14.1 10.1
B. 'LOREN'
FERNANDO
3.0 3.0 2.1 1.8 4.1 2.5 2.5
BAYANI F. 'BF'
MANZANO
1.6 1.7 1.0 0.7 1.6 1.3 1.7
EDUARDO B. 'EDU'
YASAY PERFECTO
1.5 0.5 0.4 1.5 8.8 8.9 1.6
R. 'KIDLAT'
CHIPECO
DOMINADOR JR. 0.5 0.4 0.3 1.8 0.4 0 0.7
F. 'JUN'
SONZA JOSE Y.
0.2 0.2 0.1 0.03 0.2 0 0.4
'JAY SONZA'
CAN'T
3.6 2.6 2.2 3.2 4.3 3.2 13.4
ANSWER/REFUSED
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

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Table 2.e VOTES FOR VICE-PRESIDENT, BY AGE GROUP (%)

Exit Poll
Sample
of 35,825
voters 55 &
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 REFUSED
encoded as ABOVE
of 9PM,
May 11,
2010
BINAY JEJOMAR C.
40.7 46.9 42.5 42.5 40.3 34.9 33.4
'JOJO'
ROXAS MANUEL A.
38.3 35.8 37.8 36.0 39.3 43.4 33.0
'MAR'
LEGARDA LOREN B.
10.6 10.2 10.9 11.6 10.3 10.0 10.7
'LOREN'
FERNANDO BAYANI F.
3.0 2.8 3.0 3.1 2.7 3.4 2.1
'BF'
MANZANO EDUARDO B.
1.6 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.6 2.0 1.8
'EDU'
YASAY PERFECTO R.
1.5 1.7 1.1 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.0
'KIDLAT'

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Social Weather Stations 5/14/10 11:58 AM

CHIPECO DOMINADOR
0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.7
JR. F. 'JUN'
SONZA JOSE Y. 'JAY
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.6
SONZA'
CAN'T
3.6 1.1 2.4 2.8 3.3 4.3 16.7
ANSWER/REFUSED
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

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I. THE VOTES

Table 3. IS PLATFORM OR PERSONALITY THE MAIN REASON FOR YOUR CHOICE OF CANDIDATE FOR
PRESIDENT?
Exit Poll Sample
of 35,825 voters
encoded as of 9PM,
May 11, 2010
PLATFORM 46
PERSONALITY 45
CAN'T ANSWER/REFUSED 9
100%

"Question. PLATAPORMA po ba o PAGKATAO ang inyong pangunahing dahilan sa pagpili ng kandidato

sa pagka-Presidente?
Is PLATFORM or PERSONALITY the main reason for your choice of candidate for President?"

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Table 4. WHEN DID YOU DECIDE ON YOUR VOTE FOR PRESIDENT?

Exit Poll Sample
of 35,825 voters
encoded as of 9PM,
May 11, 2010
ONLY NOW 14
MAY 1-9 13
IN APRIL 9
IN MARCH 6
IN FEBRUARY OR EARLIER 51
CAN'T ANSWER/REFUSED 6
100%
"Question. Kailan po kayo nakapagdesisyon sa inyong boto sa pagka-Presidente?
When did you decide on your vote for president?"

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Table 5. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS ELECTIONS, WAS VOTING EASIER OR HARDER FOR YOU NOW?
Exit Poll Sample
of 35,825 voters
encoded as of 9PM,
May 11, 2010
EASIER NOW 51
SAME AS BEFORE 7
MORE DIFFICULT NOW 31
FIRST TIME TO VOTE 4
CAN'T ANSWER/REFUSED 6
100%

Question. Kumpara sa mga nakaraang halalan, ang pagboto po ba ninyo ay MAS MADALI o MAS
MAHIRAP ngayon?
Compared to previous elections, was voting easier or harder for you now?

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Table 6. UNDER THE NEXT ADMINISTRATION, DO YOU THINK THE QUALITY OF GOVERNANCE...?

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Social Weather Stations 5/14/10 11:58 AM

Exit Poll Sample

of 35,825 voters
encoded as of 9PM,
May 11, 2010
WILL GET BETTER 57
WILL BE THE SAME AS NOW 15
WILL GET WORSE 2
CAN'T ANSWER/REFUSED 26
100%

Question. Sa ilalim ng susunod na administrasyon, masasabi ba ninyo na ang mangyayari sa kalidad ng

pamamahala ay …?
Under the next administration, do you think the quality of governance …?

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Table 7. IN THE COMING 12 MONTHS WOULD YOU SAY THAT YOUR QUALITY OF LIFE...?
Exit Poll Sample
of 35,825 voters
encoded as of 9PM,
May 11, 2010
WILL BE BETTER 49
SAME 23
WILL BE WORSE 2
CAN'T ANSWER/REFUSED 26
100%

Question. Sa darating na 12 buwan, masasabi ba ninyo na ang uri ba ng inyong pamumuhay ay ... (READ
OUT)?

In the coming 12 months would you say that your quality of life... (READ OUT)?

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Table 8. OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS, WOULD YOU SAY THAT THE ECONOMY OF THE PHILIPPINES
WILL...?
Exit Poll Sample
of 35,825 voters
encoded as of 9PM,
May 11, 2010
WILL BE BETTER 52
SAME 19
WILL BE WORSE 2
CAN'T ANSWER/REFUSED 27
100%

Question. Sa darating na 12 buwan, masasabi ba ninyo na ang ekonomiya ng Pilipinas ay … (READ

OUT)?
Over the next 12 months, would you say that the economy of the Philippines will... (READ OUT)?

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Background

Social Weather Stations, in cooperation with the School of Government of Ateneo de Manila University, conducted a
national exit poll sponsored by the PLDT-SMART Foundation, Inc., for exclusive broadcast by the Associated Broadcasting
Company (TV5), called the "TV5-SWS EXIT POLL."

The TV5-SWS Exit Poll adheres to the requirements set by the Fair Election Act's Section 5.5 on exit polls. This requires
interviewers to (a) stay at least 50 meters away from polling centers, (b) wear distinctive TV5-SWS Exit Poll clothing and
carry TV5-SWS Exit Poll identification cards; and (c) inform respondents that they may refuse to answer. The Act says
that the results "may be announced after the closing of the polls on election day, and must clearly announce the total
number of respondents, and the places where they were taken" and that the "announcement shall state that the same is
unofficial and does not represent a trend."

SWS previously conducted exit polls in the national elections of 1995, 1998, 2001 and 2004. Those previous polls were all
conducted on election-day, in the homes of a random sample of respondents who had already voted earlier in the day.
Conducting an exit poll in homes rather than at polling locations is valid under the Guidelines for Exit Polls and Election
Forecasts of the World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR), written by the WAPOR Exit Poll Committee of
which I was a member, and approved by the WAPOR Council in 2006.

This year, however, the TV5-SWS Exit Poll is conducted not in homes but at the polling centers, 50 meters away. This

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Social Weather Stations 5/14/10 11:58 AM

enables the interviews to be done, as in the developed countries, throughout the day. The interview results are
transmitted to the SWS office in Quezon City, and processed to produce the exit poll results for broadcast on TV5 as soon
as completed, and lawfully allowed.

SWS conducted the TV5-SWS Exit Poll with its own regular staff and a special complement of direct hires for added
interviewing and data processing capacity. Starting in mid-2004, SWS has accomplished all field and data processing
operations internally, without outsourcing.

The questionnaire for the TV5-SWS Exit Poll was designed in cooperation with the Ateneo School of Government (ASoG).
In addition to asking about the votes for President, Vice-President and Senator, it has several question items, in addition
to standard demographics (gender, age, education, socioeconomic class, religion, charismatic group, and home language)
to enable substantive analysis of the 2010 vote. The TV5-SWS Exit Poll analysis will be done by SWS in cooperation with
ASoG.

SWS is entirely responsible for the sampling of the TV5-SWS Exit Poll. The poll was conducted in 802 Voting Centers
(VCs) nationwide, covering all provinces from Batanes to Tawi-Tawi, and chartered cities of the Philippines. The regional
distribution of the TV5-SWS Exit Poll sample of VCs, after proportional allocation according to the official 2010 number of
Registered Voters (RVs) in the said provinces and cities, is as follows:

NCR - 96
CAR - 15
Region I - 45
Region II - 31
Region III - 88
Region IV- A - 107
Region IV-B - 23
Region V - 44
Region VI - 62
Region VII - 62
Region VIII - 38
Region IX - 29
Region X - 38
Region XI - 40
Region XII - 32
ARMM - 30
CARAGA - 22

Within each province/city, the sample-VCs are chosen with probability proportional to their number of RVs. In each VC,
SWS fielded normally two interviewers (sometimes one, if the VC is small); the total field group, including support staff, is
over 1,800 persons. SWS has 110 encoding stations at its main office to accommodate the incoming interview reports.

The interviewers of the TV5-SWS Exit Poll have been trained to behave in a strictly non-partisan manner at all times.
They are to approach voters to be interviewed at a steady pace throughout voting hours. They may not accept voters who
volunteer to be interviewed. For the sake of privacy, interviewees' names are not recorded; interviewees are given a
thank-you card with the name of their interviewer. The TV5-SWS Exit Poll aims for an average of 40 interviews per VC, or
a national sample of about 32,000 interviews. The national sampling error, though still to be ascertained, is expected to
be below 1%.

The results of each VC are weighted by its present number of RVs, multiplied by the actual voting turnout percentage in
the last presidential election year (2004), to progressively obtain provincial/city results, regional results, and national
results. However, the voting results for national positions may be reported at the national level only, at which the sample
is maximized; it is not necessary for an exit poll to reach conclusions about sub-jurisdictions.

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