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propability

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1. Three light bulbs are chosen at random from 15 bulbs of which 5 are defective. Find

the probability that

(i) none is defective, ANS 0.2637

(ii) exactly one is defective , ANS 0. 4945

(iii) at least one is defective. ANS 0.7362

2. Of 10 girls in a class, 3 have blue eyes. If two of the girls are chosen at random, what

is the probability that

(i) both have blue eyes, ANS 0.06667

(ii) neither has blue eyes, ANS 0.4667

(iii) at least one has blue eyes? ANS 0.5333

3. Three bolts and three nuts are put in a box. If two parts are chosen at random, find the

probability that one is a bolt and one a nut. ANS 0.6

4. A class consists of 6 girls and 10 boys. If a committee of 3 is chosen at random from

the class, find the probability that

(i) 3 boys are selected, ANS 0.2142

(ii) exactly 2 boys are selected, ANS 0.4821

(iii) at least one boy is selected, ANS 0.96429

(iv) exactly 2 girls are selected. ANS 0.26 79

5. A coin, weighted so that P(H)=2/3 and P(T)=1/3, is tossed. If heads appears, then a

number is selected at random from the numbers 1 through 9; if tails appears, then a

number is selected at random from the numbers 1 through 5. Find the probability that an

even number is selected.

ANS = 58/135.

6. Three machines A, B and C produce respectively 50%, 30% and 20% of the total

number of items of a factory. The percentages of defective output of these machines are

3%, 4% and 5%. If an item is selected at random, find the probability that the item is

defective. ANS 0.037

7. 2% of the population has a certain disease. A test to detect who has the disease (event

D) has been developed. It turns out that 90% of those who have the disease test positive

(event +), while 95% of those who do not have the disease (event DC) test negative (event

-). (i) What is P(D +)? ANS 0.018

(ii) What is P(DC +)? ANS 0.049

(iii) What is P(+)?ANS 0.067

(iv) What is P(D ! +)? ANS 0.2686

1

8. Suppose a test for TB has the following properties: if the person tested has TB, 99% of

time the test will return a positive result; if a person tested does not have TB, 95% of the

time the test will return a negative result. Among the test group, 2% actually have TB.

(i) What proportion of the tests will return a positive result? ANS 0.0688

(ii) What proportion of those tested positive actually have TB? ANS 0.2878

Gender

Male

Female

Smoker

103

139

Nonsmoker

278

345

(a) What is the probability that a randomly selected person in the study is female?

ANS 0.5595

(b) What is the probability that a randomly selected smoker is female?

ANS 0.5744

10. In a certain college, 25% of the boys and 10% of the girls are studying mathematics.

The girls constitute 60% of the student body. If a student is selected at random and is

studying mathematics, determine the probability that the student is a girl.

ANS 3/8.

11. The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is P(D) = 0.83; the

probability that it arrives on time is P(A) = 0.82; and the probability that it departs and

arrives on time is P(D

A)=0.78. Find the probability that a plane (a) arrives on time

given that it departed on time, and

ANS: 78/83

(b) departed on time given that it has arrived on time.

ANS: 78/82

12. In a certain college, 4% of the men and 1% of the women are taller than 6 feet.

Furthermore, 60% of the students are women. Now if a student is selected at random and

is taller than 6 feet, what is the probability that the student is a woman?

ANS0.2727

13. Three machines A, B and C produce respectively 60%, 30% and 10% of the total

number of items of a factory. The percentages of defective output of these machines

2

are respectively 2%, 3% and 4%. An item is selected at random and is found

defective. Find the probability that the item was produced by machine C. ANS: 0.16

14. . Suppose that the life of a certain type of electronic component has an exponential

distribution with a mean life of 500 hours. If X denotes the life of this component,

a) find the probability that the component will last at least 600 hours.

ANS: 0.3

b) If the component has been in operation for 300 hours, find the probability that the

component will last an additional 600 hours

ANS: 0.3

15. Let x be the number of times a certain machine malfunctions on any one day. The following is a distribution table for x:

X

Prob(x)

0

0.17

1

0.29

2

0.27

3

0.16

4

0.07

5

0.03

6

0.01

ANS: 1.8

b) Find the standard deviation of x

ANS: Variance = 1.8, std dev = 1.3416

16. The annual rate of return on stock indexes is approximately normal with a mean yearly return of 12% and standard deviation of 16.5%.

a) In what range do the middle 95% of all yearly returns lie?

ANS = -20.34% to 44.34%

b) In what proportion of years does the index gain 25% or more?

ANS = 0.215

17. The length of human pregnancies from conception to birth varies according to the distribution that is approximately normal with mean 266 days and standard deviation 16

days.

a) What percent of pregnancies last less than 240 days?

ANS = 5.2%

b) What percent of pregnancies last between 240 and 270 days?

ANS = 55.66%

3

ANS 279.46

18. The time x (minutes) for a lab assistant to prepare the equipment for a certain experiment is believed to have a uniform distribution over the interval a = 20 and b = 30; that

is, its corresponding density curve has constant height over the interval [20, 30].

a) What is the probability that preparation time exceeds 27 minutes?

ANS 0.3

ANS 25

c) What is the probability that preparation is within 2 minutes of the mean time?

ANS 0.4

19. Suppose that the error in the reaction temperature, in oC, for a controlled laboratory

experiment is a continuous random variable X having the density function

f ( x)

kx 4

0,

0 x 2

elsewhere.

Find the following probabilities:

(a) P( X 2)

(b) P( X 3.5)

(c) P( X 3)

(d ) P(1 X .5)

ANS: a) 0.9996 , b) 0.999999 , c) 0 d) 0.0183 )

4.

ANS: mean= , std dev =

21. Let Z have a standard normal distribution N(0,1). Find the following probabilities:

(a) P(0 Z 1.43)

(b) P(0 Z )

(c ) P ( Z

ANS: a) 0.4236 b) 0.5 c) 0.0537 d) 0.8594

1.61)

(d ) P( 1.52

1.43)

22. The shelf life, in days, for bottles of a certain prescribed medicine is a random

variable having the density function

f ( x)

20,000

, x 0

( x 100) 3

0,

elsewhere.

Find the probability that a bottle of this medicine will have a shelf life of

(a) at least 200 days;

ANS: 1/9

ANS: 0.079

23. A continuous random variable X that can assume values between x = 2 and x = 5 has

a density function given by

2(1 x)

f ( x)

27

Find

(a) P( X 4)

ANS: a) 16/27,

(b) P(3

4)

b) 1/3

24. Let X denote the amount of time for which a book on two-hour reserve at a college

library is checked out by a randomly selected student, and suppose that X has density

function

f ( x)

x

,

2

0,

otherwise.

(b) P(0.5

Calculate (a) P( X 1)

ANS: a) 0.25, b) 0.50, c) 0.4375

1.5)

(c) P(1.5

X)

25. Suppose the reaction temperature X (in oC) in a certain chemical process has a

uniform distribution with A = - 5 and B = 5.

Compute:

(a) P( X 0)

(b) P( 2 X 2)

(c) P( 2 X 3)

ANS: a) 0.5 b) 0.4

c) 0.5

(d) Find the mean of X. ANS 0

26. Let X be a random variable with a standard normal distribution. Find

(i) P( 0.81 X 1.13) ANS 0.6618

(ii) P(0.53 X 2.03) ANS 0.2769

(iii) P(X

27. Let X be normally distributed with mean 8 and standard deviation 4. Find:

(i) P(5 X 10). ANS 0.4648

(ii) P(10 X 15), ANS 0.2685

(iii) P( X

(iv) P( X

5) . ANS 0.2266

28. Suppose the temperature T during June is normally distributed with mean 68o and

standard deviation 6o. Find the probability that the temperature is between 70o and 80o.

ANS: 0.3467

29. Suppose the heights H of 800 students are normally distributed with mean 66 inches

and standard deviation 5 inches. A student is invited to a basketball tryout if his/her

height belongs to the top 20% of the group. Find the minimum height that qualifies a

student for the tryout.

ANS 70.207

30. Suppose 30% of all electrical fuses manufactured by a certain company fail to meet municipal building standards. What is the probability that in a random sample of 10 fuses exactly 3 will

fail to meet municipal standards?

ANS: 0.2668

31. A bin of 10 light bulbs contains 4 that are defective. If 3 bulbs are chosen at random without

replacement from the bin, what is the probability that at least 2 bulbs in the sample are defective?

ANS: 0.33

Use the following for Questions 32 to 34: Suppose that a college determines the

following distribution for X = number of courses taken by a full-time student this

semester.

Value of X

Probability

3

0.07

4

?

5

0.25

6

0.28

Answer: 0.4

33.What is the average number of courses full-time students at this college take this

semester?

Answer: 4.74

34.What is the standard deviation of the number of courses full-time students at this

college take this semester?

Answer: 0.94

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