Professional Documents
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Decision Making
Speed and accuracy are at the heart of making right decision for your business. Every successful
organisation has to go through a comprehensive market research process which enables
management to make the right decision. Market research can be done in many ways through
online surveys, forums, blogs, group discussions using World Wide Web and of course through
in-person interviews as well. Currently Big data, Google Analytics and Microsoft CRM
Dynamics are also great tools to extract useful information which can impact on decision
making. These online tools not only provide real time responses from the potential audience but
also ensure the accuracy of data by minimising the risk of human errors.
provides many channels to communicate with the customer without going out in snow or rain.
Some of these channels are email, webinar, social media, member portals, online newsletters and
text or multimedia messaging through the smart phone. Enterprise organisations normally use
customer relationship management systems (CRM) to hold valuable data for understanding
customer behaviours and future needs.
Conclusion
I think, it is impossible to attain long term business success without leveraging the benefits of
information technology in this digital age. The companies have to bear a reasonable cost to
achieve this success because using an innovative approach in business strategy, employing
highly trained IT professionals and making right decisions at right time are the prerequisite of
business success. As IT solutions continue to increase the productivity, efficiency and
effectiveness of business operations and communication, business will continue to rely on
Information Technology for success.
What is the importance of IT in your organisation? Can you think of any more area where IT is
helpful in business success? The sole purpose of this article is awareness to those who still do not
know much about modern IT. It is the first publication of my life, so if you see any deficiency in
the article then please let me know with your comments.
Anders Borg, Swedens former Finance Minister, gives his perspective on what to look out for in
the economic year ahead, from reforms in China to the threat of Brexit.
2016 will be a challenging and difficult year for the global economy.
Global growth is picking up somewhat after a number of weak years. A global GDP growth rate
of 3.5%, the latest IMF forecast, is lower than the 4.5% average that preceded the decade before
the great recession, but it is better than the average over the past five years.
The US and UK recoveries are self-sustained, but weaker than during a normal post-crisis period.
In the Eurozone, expansionary policy is still called for and further steps to support growth could
be expected. In the US and Europe alike, investments levels are low, productivity growth is very
weak and the export sector is only providing a small contribution to the recovery. At the same
time growth is slowing in Asia and world trade is likely to grow at a slower rate than GDP. It is a
recovery without a real upturn in the business cycle, threatened by a range of factors.
One: the year of political populism?
2016 could become a year marked by political populism. Weak economic activity and low
productivity growth mean that real wages and consumption are likely to continue to be
disappointing. When reality is coming short of expectations, there are grievances to be exploited.
Donald Trump, Jeremy Corbyn, Alexis Tsipras, Nigel Farage, Marine Le Pen, Bernie Sanders,
Pablo Iglesias Turrin and many others are taking advantage of stagnating living standards and
increasing economic insecurity.
A number of factors are reinforcing populism and discontent. Job security is undermined by
global competition, digitalisation and robotisation. New work opportunities ahead are more
likely to be short-term contracts, part-time jobs, self-employment without full social benefits and
full job security. The so-called Uber class of insecure workers is a new reality to be dealt with.
The demands for education, expert knowledge and social skills have taken a quantum leap
upwards and increased the threshold for people seeking to enter the labour market. Unionisation
is on the retreat. Increased insecurity in labour markets, the weaker negotiation power of the
unions and low productivity are setting narrow limitations for wage negotiations and real wages.
In a period when most advanced economies needs strong governments to implement far-reaching
structural reforms, voters are favouring short-termism and asking for simple solutions. To restore
political trust, governments needs to deliver real wage increases, more jobs and better welfare.
This can only happen if growth is revitalised by reforms to increase labour market flexibility and
to improve the business climate.
There is a clear risk that the fear of political populism will undermine the way leaders deal with
long-term challenges and thereby creates a vicious negative spiral where disappointment further
weakens trust in governments.
Two: global insecurity and the refugee crisis
US presidential elections will be a major political event during 2016. From a global perspective,
the key issue is whether the next president will be able to restore the US as a global force for
stability after the apparent lethargy of President Obamas administration. Another period of a
United States that lacks direction in its foreign policy, combined with a reluctance to engage with
military forces in difficult regions, will create deep security problems.
Europe needs to step up its ability to deal with emerging security issues, although that is an
unlikely outcome without leadership from the USA. The tragic events in Paris have created a
momentum for a coalition bringing the US, France, the United Kingdom and, unexpectedly, also
Russia together for a push-back of the Daesh ambition of establishing a Caliphate. It seems
necessary for the US and Europe to be ready to actively counter extremist Islamic terrorism in
the Middle East, North Africa and Afghanistan in the medium term as well as in the long run. To
leave large areas and regions under the control of Daesh, Boko Haram, Al-Shabaab or the
Taliban is a global security risk.
The refugee crises in Europe will remain a major factor during 2016. UN estimates indicate that
over one million people have entered Europe with the intention of claiming asylum during 2015.
On a global level, UNHCR has stated that the number of forcibly displaced people reached
almost 60 million in 2015, an increase of some 40% since 2014.
Germany, Sweden, Hungary, Austria and Italy have been the most affected countries in Europe
(Hungary and Sweden with the highest per capita numbers, and Germany with the highest
number in absolute terms). In the last few weeks, the inflows have decreased. Partly that could
be due to temporary harsh weather. The fact that the European Union has made a broader
political agreement with Turkey could also be a factor.
In addition, Daesh will face a stronger counter insurgency efforts during 2016. If Daesh is
pushed back and insecurity reduced in Syria and Iraq that is likely to further improve the
situation. It should however be pointed out that some 4 million refuges from the conflict in
Syria-Iraq remain in the neighbouring countries (in Turkey 2.2 million, in Lebanon 1.1 million
and in Jordan 650,000 people).
The historical pattern has been that it takes a few years before the refugee numbers normalise
after a period of conflict. The intensified challenge from the Taliban in Afghanistan could also
increase the number of people claiming asylum in Europe (about 100,000 people have come
from Afghanistan to Europe during 2015). The number of refugees coming to Europe is most
likely going to be lower in 2016, but they will remain much higher than the long-term average
for both 2016 and 2017.
The short term economic consequence of the high migration flows will be somewhat higher GDP
growth in Germany and Sweden, due to a temporary increase in public expenditure. The
consequences of a growing population is positive in the long term, reducing the demographic
pressure of an ageing population. Increased internal globalisation, to use the term coined by
Angela Merkel, is potentially a more diversified work force and a more creative economy.
In the short term, the task of integrating such a large number of people will be a challenge. In
Sweden the historical experience has been that people from Syria have integrated well into the
labour market. However, to be able to integrate a large number of people coming from a much
less developed country (GDP per capita in Syria was 5000 USD before the conflict, which is
slightly more than 10% of the level in Sweden and Germany) will be complicated. To strengthen
integration, countries need to increase labour market flexibility, boost spending on early
education efforts and active labour market measures and streamline welfare services, but both in
Germany and Sweden this will be very difficult. Looking ahead it is likely that unemployment
will be somewhat higher in 2017 and 2018. and this will dampen wage pressure and inflation
pressure somewhat.
In the long run, Russia is likely to be a declining power under the current regime. Low fertility
rates and premature alcohol-related death among men, combined with excessive dependence on
natural resources rather than productivity and innovations, are undermining the long-term
prospects. But in the short run, any neighbouring country that shows signs of weakness face the
risk that Russia will try to exploit the situation. President Putin has been a master of navigating
the age of populism and could revert to the anti-western rhetoric at any point of time.
For the coming years investments in Russia will be perceived as risky. A solid recovery in Russia
will only come if foreign investors become convinced that the U-turn in Russian politics of late
2015 is the first step towards a Russia that is open for co-operation and ready to reform its
archaic economic structures. Until then most investors will hibernate and hope for a thawing in
the Russian tundra.
Five: weak growth, choppy markets
Global growth will be weak next year. Furthermore, we are also likely to see substantial turmoil
in financial markets. The combination of the recovery in the US and, even if weaker, in Europe,
as well as a deceleration of growth in China is creating uncertainty for the financial markets. The
extraordinary monetary policy measures over the last few years have pumped short-term money
into the global financial system. In combination with low liquidity in markets, partly due to the
new regulatory structures that are reshaping banking everywhere, this has set the tone for
turbulence.
The key factor deciding the degree of turbulence will be inflation in the US and reforms in
China. If inflation is picking up in the US and the Federal Reserve is perceived to be behind the
curve, this could push US rates higher and reinforce the appreciation of the dollar. The best guess
is that inflation will remain subdued in the US. A weak consumer recovery and very low resource
utilisation is unlikely to give a demand-driven inflation push. The potential for accelerated
productivity growth out of the broad technology-driven shift that is now taking place should also
keep cost pressure under control.
The traditional models that the Federal Reserve and other central banks are using to forecast
inflation are backward-looking and are unlikely to capture the fast moving technological
development that we are now seeing. On the back of higher than expected productivity it is also
possible for the unemployment rate to gradually go lower without pushing a traditional wage and
inflation spiral.
2016 could potentially be a year when the implications of the digital transformation become a
dominant theme. The potential is clearly there. Many start-up companies have been printing very
strong growth numbers for years, but the macro-economic impact has so far been on the weaker
side because the growth has come from a low level. Every year this is gradually changing. When
more and more people do their shopping and banking online that will also mean that the broader
implications becomes more pronounced. The pressure on existing firms to adapt to increased
competition is likely to mean that prices and profit margins are being squeezed.
A more problematic impact could be that employment growth is held back during the recovery.
So far that has not been the case in the advanced economies. The labour market in the US has
been strong, but that has also been the trend in the United Kingdom, Germany and the Nordic
countries.
Six: Chinas reforms
If inflation expectations in the US are a key factor shaping the financial year of 2016, reforms in
China are on another scale. If China is able to gradually move forward with rebalancing the
economy from investments to consumption, that could open a path towards more sustainable
growth and a gradual return of optimism in the Chinese business sector.
The Chinese government has many times, not least at the last meeting in Davos and at the Dalian
summit, stated its ambition to push forward with reforms to open the economy and continue the
transformation towards a well-functioning market economy. The downside risk seems to be that
these reforms are dependent on the ability to deal with resistance from special interest groups,
including state-owned enterprises and more conservative centres of power. For the global
economy, it is key to monitor any sign that reforms are being accelerated and that resistance to
change is being pushed backwards.
Any sign that a credit contraction is hampering growth would imply that it is necessary for the
Peoples Bank of China, PBOC, to push monetary policy in an expansionary direction. In such a
scenario, the RMB would weaken and that would imply second round depreciation in the rest of
Asia. In any such scenario we would also see continued turbulence on commodity markets as
well. Commodity prices are likely to contribute to the low-inflation environment. It will take
time before we see the recovery of the super-cycle.
It is important to underline how important China is for the rest of the emerging market countries.
Growth in Asia, Latin America and Africa has been bolstered by the growing demand for iron
ore, copper and oil from China. If China succeeds in dealing with domestic challenges, that
would also contribute to reviving optimism in emerging markets.
It is, however, important to underline that the renaissance in emerging markets has a more
fundamental basis than just being derivative of China. India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, the
Philippines, Brazil, Mexico Colombia, Nigeria, Ethiopia and East Africa have been able to
accelerate growth out of their own power. Political reforms have improved governance. Barriers
to trade have been reduced. The regulatory burden and the cost of doing business have been
reduced. The education level of the workforce has improved. The mobile revolution has made
information accessible almost everywhere and increased political transparency.
Emerging economies will be under market pressure during 2016. If the Federal Reserve
accelerates rate hikes and the PBOC depreciates the RNB this would create tensions for the
global economy. In this rather difficult environment, it would be a critical moment if external
pressure translated into a push for economic reforms. If the governments in Brazil, Turkey,
Nigeria or Russia would see market pressure as an argument for reinforcing structural reforms
that could be game changer. So far the response has been far from convincing.
It is important to take on board the fundamental optimism that globalisation is bringing to
emerging markets. According to the IMF forecast for 2016 there will be more than 3.4 billion
people living in countries with a GDP growing faster than 6%. A growth rate of 6% means that
the total economy will triple in two decades. That is the fastest transformation out of poverty that
humanity has ever experience. Whether 2016 will bring a revival of the fundamental emerging
market story or a year of disappointment is an open question, and the more market pressure is
seen as an argument for reform the better the outcome will be.
2016 is likely to be a difficult year. Growth is increasing, lead by the recovery in the US and
other advanced economies, but populism, geopolitical risks and market turmoil are likely to cast
some shadows over the optimism.
Author: Anders Borg, Chair, Global Financial System Initiative, World Economic Forum
Image: A sign showing distances to cities all over the world is seen outside City Hall in San
Bernardino, California January 23, 2015. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson
5.Role of world bank and imf in development of business
his article explains the role of the three important international organizations, namely, World
Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Trade Organization in facilitating trade.
The excerpts of the functions and objectives are taken from their respective websites.
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
The purposes of the IMF are clearly expressed in Article I of its constitution, the Articles of
Agreement:
To give confidence to members by making the general resources of the Fund temporarily
available to them under adequate safeguards
To shorten the duration and lessen the degree of disequilibrium in the international
balances of payments of members
World Bank
The World Bank is a vital source of financial and technical assistance to developing countries
around the world.
We are not a bank in the ordinary sense but a unique partnership to reduce poverty and support
development. We comprise two institutions managed by 188 member countries: the International
Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development
Association (IDA). The IBRD aims to reduce poverty in middle-income and creditworthy poorer
countries, while IDA focuses exclusively on the worlds poorest countries. These institutions are
part of a larger body known as the World Bank Group.
Together these two institutions provide low-interest loans, interest-free credits and grants to
developing countries for a wide array of purposes that include investments in education, health,
public administration, infrastructure, financial and private sector development, agriculture, and
environmental and natural resource management.
World Trade Organization (WTO)
The World Trade Organization (WTO) is the only international organization dealing with the
global rules of trade between nations. Its main function is to ensure that trade flows as smoothly,
predictably and freely as possible.
Where countries have faced trade barriers and wanted them lowered, the negotiations have
helped to open markets for trade. But the WTO is not just about opening markets, and in some
circumstances its rules support maintaining trade barriers for example, to protect consumers
or prevent the spread of disease.
At its heart are the WTO agreements, negotiated and signed by the bulk of the worlds trading
nations. These documents provide the legal ground rules for international commerce. They are
essentially contracts, binding governments to keep their trade policies within agreed limits.
Although negotiated and signed by governments, the goal is to help producers of goods and
services, exporters, and importers conduct their business, while allowing governments to meet
social and environmental objectives. The systems overriding purpose is to help trade flow as
freely as possible.
6.Major product effect the global business
Global oil prices have fallen sharply over the past seven months, leading to significant
revenue shortfalls in many energy exporting nations, while consumers in many importing
countries are likely to have to pay less to heat their homes or drive their cars.
From 2010 until mid-2014, world oil prices had been fairly stable, at around $110 a barrel. But
since June prices have more than halved. Brent crude oil has now dipped below $50 a
barrel for the first time since May 2009 and US crude is down to below $48 a barrel.
The reasons for this change are twofold - weak demand in many countries due to insipid
economic growth, coupled with surging US production.
Added to this is the fact that the oil cartel Opec is determined not to cut production as a way to
prop up prices.
So who are some of the winners and losers?
Image captionThe falling rouble and plunging oil revenue are some of President Putin's biggest
challenges
Russia is one of the world's largest oil producers, and its dramatic interest rate hike to 17% in
support of its troubled rouble underscores how heavily its economy depends on energy
revenues, with oil and gas accounting for 70% of export incomes.
Russia loses about $2bn in revenues for every dollar fall in the oil price, and the World Bank has
warned that Russia's economy would shrink by at least 0.7% in 2015 if oil prices do not recover.
Despite this, Russia has confirmed it will not cut production to shore up oil prices.
"If we cut, the importer countries will increase their production and this will mean a loss of our
niche market," said Energy Minister Alexander Novak.
Falling oil prices, coupled with western sanctions over Russia's support for separatists in eastern
Ukraine have hit the country hard.
The government has cut its growth forecast for 2015, predicting that the economy will sink into
recession.
Former finance minister, Alexei Kudrin, said the currency's fall was not just a reaction to lower
oil prices and western sanctions, "but also [a show of] distrust to the economic policies of the
government".
Given the pressures facing Moscow now, some economists expect further measures to shore up
the currency.
"We think capital controls as a policy measure cannot be off the table now," said Luis Costa, a
senior analyst at Citi.
Image captionRussia's economy is forecast to fall into recession in 2015 if oil prices do not
regain ground
While President Putin is not using the word "crisis", Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has been
more forthright on Russia's economic problems.
"Frankly, we, strictly speaking, have not fully recovered from the crisis of 2008," he said in a
recent interview.
Because of the twin impact of falling oil prices and sanctions, he said the government had had to
cut spending. "We had to abandon a number of programmes and make certain sacrifices."
Russia's interest rate rise may also bring its own problems, as high rates can choke economic
growth by making it harder for businesses to borrow and spend.
The government's caution is understandable. A petrol price rise in 1989 saw widespread riots that
left hundreds dead.
Image captionSaudi Arabia is not expected to cut production to prop up oil prices in the short
term
Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter and Opec's most influential member, could support
global oil prices by cutting back its own production, but there is little sign it wants to do this.
There could be two reasons - to try to instil some discipline among fellow Opec oil producers,
and perhaps to put the US's burgeoning shale oil and gas industry under pressure.
Although Saudi Arabia needs oil prices to be around $85 in the longer term, it has deep pockets
with a reserve fund of some $700bn - so can withstand lower prices for some time.
"In terms of production and pricing of oil by Middle East producers, they are beginning to
recognise the challenge of US production," says Robin Mills, Manaar Energy's head of
consulting.
If a period of lower prices were to force some higher cost producers to shut down, then Riyadh
might hope to pick up market share in the longer run.
However, there is also recent history behind Riyadh's unwillingness to cut production. In the
1980s the country did cut production significantly in a bid to boost prices, but it had little effect
and it also badly affected the Saudi economy.
Image captionSome Opec members need oil to be above $120 a barrel to avoid hard spending
choices
Alongside Saudi Arabia, Gulf producers such as the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have also
amassed considerable foreign currency reserves, which means that they could run deficits for
several years if necessary.
Other Opec members such as Iran, Iraq and Nigeria, with greater domestic budgetary demands
because of their large population sizes in relation to their oil revenues, have less room for
manoeuvre.
They have combined foreign currency reserves of less than $200bn, and are already under
pressure from increased US competition.
Nigeria, which is Africa's biggest oil producer, has seen growth in the rest of its economy but
despite this it remains heavily oil-dependent. Energy sales account for up to 80% of all
government revenue and more than 90% of the country's exports.
The war in Syria and Iraq has also seen Isis, or Islamic State, capturing oil wells. It is estimated it
is making about $3m a day through black market sales - and undercutting market prices by
selling at a significant discount - around $30-60 a barrel.
7. http://trade.gov/fta/
https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/10thi_e/10thi06_e.htm
http://dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/Pages/benefits-of-ftas.aspx
http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2000/08/the-benefits-of-free-trade-a-guide-forpolicymakers
8.
http://defence.pk/threads/top-10-pakistan-exports-and-imports-to-and-from-other-
countries.364652/
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/exports
http://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/117931-Pakistan-succeeds-in-growing-its-apparelindustry