In this paper, we simulate CLSE and WCLSE for the offspring mean in a subcritical branching process with immigration, in the case Poisson distribution and then we compare them.

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In this paper, we simulate CLSE and WCLSE for the offspring mean in a subcritical branching process with immigration, in the case Poisson distribution and then we compare them.

© All Rights Reserved

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162-168

TI Journals

ISSN:

2222-2510

www.tijournals.com

Conditional Least Squares Estimators for the Offspring Mean in a

Subcritical Branching Process with Immigration

Hossein Samimi *

Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematical Sciences, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran.

Neda Emami

Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematical Sciences, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran.

*Corresponding author: smimi@guilan.ac.ir

Keywords

Abstract

Generation-dependent immigration

Subcritical branching process

CLSE estimator

WCLSE estimator

In this paper, we simulate CLSE and WCLSE for the offspring mean in a subcritical branching process with

immigration, in the case Poisson distribution and then we compare them.

1.

Introduction

We consider a discrete time branching process Z n , n 0 , Z (0) 0 with immigration which is called Galton-Watson process [4]. This process

can be defined recursively by

z (n 1)

Z n

ni

(1.1)

n 1.

i 1

Assuming that X ni , n , i 1 and n ,n 1 are independent sequences of nonnegative integer valued random variables with finite means a and

n and finite variances b and n respectively. Two families

X ni , n , i

1 and

X ni have a

common distribution for all n and i. We can interpret X ni as the number of offspring of the ith individual in the (n1)th generation and n is the

number of immigrating individuals in the nth generation. Also Z(n) can be considered as the size of nth generation of the population. The

branching process (1.1) is called subcritical, critical, and supercritical if a < 1; a = 1; and a > 1, respectively. The independent assumption of

families X ni and n means that reproduction and immigration processes are independent. Immigration rate may depend on the time of

immigration. This makes the process Z(n) inhomogeneous in time. In this article, we investigate the conditional least squares estimators (CLSE)

and the weighted CLSE of the offspring mean in the case when the process is subcritical which have obtained in Rahimov [5][6][7], using

numerical method by R package. Finally, we compare their behavior from each other.

2.

Preliminary

We assume that A (n), B2 (n) are mean and variance of Z(n), respectively, and they are finite for each n 1.We also assume that the immigration

flow is inhomogeneous, i.e., the random variables n ,n 1 have different distributions and, furthermore, n E [ n ] and n var[ n ] are

finite for each n 1. Variables n and n , as n are assumed to be regularly varying of the form

n n L n , n n L n ,

(2.1)

We estimate offspring mean a based on observations of the population sizes

observable. We assume that the immigrating individuals k , k 0 follow known distributions. Let (n) for each n 0 be -algebra generated

by Z (k), k 0,1,..., n . We obtain from (1.1)

E (Z(n) | (n 1)) aZ(n 1) (n), n 1.

(2.2)

By using this almost sure equality we can represent Z(n) by the following stochastic regression equation:

(2.3)

where the error term (n) has zero mean, i.e., E (n) | (n 1) 0 . Also, Using (1.1), we obtain that

var (n) | (n 1) Z (n 1) b (n).

The conditional variance of the error is effected by Z (n) and the immigration variance. To overcome this, we used WCLSE [6]. If we assume

that the immigration mean n is known, then CLSE of a will minimize sum of squared errors

n

i 1

a(n)

n

i 1

n

i 1

Z 2 (i 1)

(2.4)

163

The Simulation of Conditional Least Squares Estimators and Weighted Conditional Least Squares Estimators for the Offspring Mean in a Subcritical Branc...

World Applied Programming Vol(5), No (12), December, 2015.

The estimator (2.4) minimizes the sum of squares of (n) which is defined from stochastic regression equation

Z(n) aZ(n 1) (n) (n),

by choosing Z (i 1) as the weight, we have on the set Z n 0, n 1

Z (n)

Z (n 1)

1

2

aZ (n 1) (n)

1

(n),

Z (n 1) 2

Z (n1) . Clearly, we still have E (n) | (n 1) 0 , but now the variance is equal to b (n) . If the immigration

Z (n 1)

Taking this into account, we derive the following WCLSE of the offspring mean when the immigration mean is known

n

a(n)

(Z(i) (i)) ,

Z (i 1)

i 1

n 2.

i 1

Now we state the main result concerning the consistency and the asymptotical normality of the WCLSE. We assume that there exist finite or

infinite limit

c lim

n

.

n

We denote

b

,

1 a

n

2

1

n

E k k n B (n) ,

nB (n) k 1

where k k k , 0 and A denotes the indicator of event A. Rahimov et. al. [7] proved the flowing theorem.

Theorem 2.1. Let a 1 , b 0, , (n) and n o ( 2 (n)) .

(a) (n) is strongly consistent estimator for the offspring mean a.

(b) If, in addition, n 0 as n for any 0 , then

n A (n)

d

N (0, d 2 ),

a(n) a

B (n)

d2

(1 )2 b (1 a) c (1 a 2 )

1

1

3.

Simulation

To study the behavior of estimators, defined above, we apply a number of simulations of discrete time branching processes with known offspring

mean. Then we used the computational procedure, to obtain an estimated value of the offspring mean. At first we simulate discrete time

branching stochastic process Z n , n 0, Z (0) 0 which is defined in (1.1). To investigate behavior of the offspring mean estimator, simulation

was conducted with the following specifications:

(1) Offspring distribution is Poisson with parameter a = 0.7 i.e. the process is subcritical.

(2) Immigration distribution is Poisson with parameter, (k) k .

Then we simulate WCLSE and CLSE of offspring mean.

Table 1 shows the population size of the process Z (n), n 0 is 345, in 100th generation. Table 2 and figure 1 show the results of the

conditional variance of error for above branching process.

Table 1. Population size of process after 100 generation, in the case the number of offspring of the each

individual X ni , n, i 1 and n are poisson distribution with parameters a=0.7 and (n) n respectively.

Generation

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Population

size

2

6

11

9

13

10

20

17

23

24

17

29

34

34

33

42

39

46

50

59

Generation

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

Population

size

76

66

68

62

87

94

94

88

79

94

112

110

114

102

113

135

119

131

124

135

Generation

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

Population

size

124

126

126

115

121

101

110

127

129

126

131

134

129

169

186

199

199

216

211

193

Generation

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

Population

size

184

200

197

189

225

210

220

208

221

218

241

241

244

237

252

283

291

287

280

290

Generation

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Population

size

293

314

268

280

311

313

290

281

316

317

298

318

323

314

310

310

290

316

317

345

164

Generation

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Conditional

variance

1.0

2.7

4.4

6.1

7.8

11.6

14.7

17.1

19.5

25.4

33.4

40.0

48.7

51.1

48.6

50.3

58.3

48.8

60.3

1.0

Generation

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

Conditional

variance

76.0

70.0

71.0

65.0

70.2

69.1

73.6

74.6

83.3

96.2

95.1

95.4

95.0

107.2

114.5

111.3

110.9

106.3

110.1

110.4

Conditional

variance

117.0

113.1

126.0

134.7

135.7

143.0

149.6

145.7

146.7

153.3

164.8

165.8

172.4

164.3

166.7

165.6

179.2

191.4

192.4

204.6

Generation

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

Generation

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

Conditional

variance

204.9

205.9

209.0

214.9

210.3

209.9

217.9

207.7

212.9

231.4

233.8

227.8

242.8

244.5

273.5

252.8

252.4

239.4

248.1

273.6

Generation

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Conditional

variance

278.4

268.2

257.3

254.8

278.9

282.0

285.8

283.3

275.9

265.7

274.4

274.0

282.0

286.5

295.2

317.9

312.6

331.8

339.8

328.2

It is clear that by increasing generation, the conditional variance of error is increasing too. By choosing Z (i 1) as the weight, we obtain

(n)

bZ (n 1)

(n)

(n)

var (n) | (n 1) var

| (n 1)

b

Z (n 1)

Z

(n

1)

Z (n 1) Z (n 1)

3.1. Comparison estimators

We consider the branching process Z n when n=5 and then generate m=100 simulations of Z n . Table 3 shows WCLSE of offspring mean

in each branching process.

Table 3. WCLSE for offspring mean in process Z (n), n 5.

m

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Estimator

0.6842105

0.5714286

0.9047619

0.4166667

0.1818182

1.0370370

0.6153846

0.8947368

0.5294118

0.6666667

1.0500000

-0.1111111

0.2000000

1.0434783

0.4615385

0.6818182

0.8421053

0.9166667

-0.5000000

1.2083333

m

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

Estimator

0.7500000

0.2307692

0.7000000

0.8571429

0.7500000

0.8333333

0.7222222

0.8235294

1.0833333

1.1923077

-0.2222222

0.6470588

0.7777778

0.4166667

0.8928571

0.7222222

0.8611111

0.2727273

0.7931034

0.9500000

m

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

Estimator

0.1250000

0.7741935

0.8235294

0.8666667

1.0000000

0.3636364

1.2000000

0.3000000

0.6842105

0.2142857

0.4444444

1.1428571

0.7333333

1.2142857

1.1724138

0.4000000

0.7727273

0.8461538

0.9047619

0.6400000

m

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

Estimator

0.3529412

0.5714286

1.0400000

0.3333333

1.3333333

0.7333333

0.1428571

0.5000000

0.7222222

1.2333333

0.7500000

1.0000000

-0.1111111

0.8125000

0.5833333

0.7857143

1.2857143

1.2307692

0.5789474

0.6956522

m

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Estimator

0.6842105

0.8095238

0.6666667

0.4285714

0.8750000

0.5833333

0.4615385

0.5000000

0.4444444

-0.4285714

0.7894737

0.8333333

0.8800000

0.6666667

0.6250000

1.2727273

0.8636364

0.6363636

0.3000000

0.9600000

165

The Simulation of Conditional Least Squares Estimators and Weighted Conditional Least Squares Estimators for the Offspring Mean in a Subcritical Branc...

World Applied Programming Vol(5), No (12), December, 2015.

Figure 2.WCLSE for offspring mean of process Z (n), n 5. (from 100 simulations)

According to the figure 2, estimators are in interval [-0.5,1.33] and WCLSE estimator dose not estimate the exact value of offspring. Table 4

shows CLSE of offspring mean in each branching process.

Table 4. CLSE of offspring mean in process Z (n), n 5.

m

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Estimator

0.53488372

0.57575758

0.83240223

0.40697674

0.22641509

0.95278970

0.65079365

0.66666667

0.38961039

0.95121951

1.05084746

-0.17241379

0.21428571

0.98285714

0.49230769

0.53608247

0.63184080

0.76515152

-0.42857143

1.11111111

m

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

Estimator

0.60674157

0.15686275

1.00000000

0.92682927

0.65079365

0.56834532

0.66666667

0.78160920

0.95967742

1.13461538

-0.26086957

0.52482270

1.29032258

0.44000000

0.68421053

0.56896552

0.68000000

0.39622642

0.62660944

0.74157303

m

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

Estimator

0.41666667

0.56749311

0.70400000

0.90099010

0.85714286

0.10169492

1.11255411

0.52173913

0.57723577

0.14285714

0.68965517

1.06060606

0.69369369

0.97297297

1.00958466

0.32911392

0.64705882

0.94845361

0.80141844

0.41104294

m

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

Estimator

0.13253012

0.58064516

0.98907104

2.60000000

1.30973451

0.66101695

0.52380952

0.39705882

0.59183673

1.17197452

0.59183673

0.96753247

0.02857143

0.76811594

0.56818182

0.81818182

1.27179487

1.07627119

0.36697248

0.49693252

m

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Estimator

0.42990654

0.69465649

0.81081081

0.39393939

0.87179487

0.52941176

0.45333333

0.26153846

0.80000000

-0.33333333

0.72000000

1.08000000

0.74011299

0.62337662

0.43478261

1.36000000

0.76543210

0.83050847

0.52173913

0.79274611

Figure 3. CLSE for offspring mean of process Z (n), n 5. (from 100 simulations)

Figure 3 shows estimators are in interval [-0.428,2.6] and CLSE estimator dose not estimate the true value of offspring mean. Now we compare

behavior of these estimators.

Table 5. Comparison between WCLSE and CLSE of offspring mean in process Z (n), n 5 .

Mean

Variance

Minimum

Maximum

MSE

CLSE

0.66640

0.1546

-0.4282

2.6000

1540.0

WCLSE

0.6830

0.1280

-0.5000

1.3333

1270.0

We consider the branching process Z n when n=1000 and then generate m=100 simulations of Z n . Table 6 shows WCLSE of offspring

mean in each branching process.

166

m

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Estimator

0.6990256

0.7003019

0.6997570

0.7004337

0.7009131

0.6999060

0.6998742

0.6988545

0.6995835

0.6991291

0.7012415

0.6992730

0.7000331

0.6999814

0.7013616

0.6993818

0.7003141

0.6994516

0.7004601

0.6999984

m

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

Estimator

0.7004998

0.6984579

0.6993844

0.7000426

0.6999592

0.7008784

0.7008152

0.6996649

0.6990598

0.7001634

0.7003149

0.7002103

0.7022974

0.7000129

0.6993251

0.7004083

0.6992261

0.7002838

0.6994177

0.7000287

m

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

Estimator

0.6991117

0.6997690

0.7000919

0.7002506

0.7001549

0.7004367

0.6995767

0.6990765

0.6995254

0.7003695

0.7011788

0.6996698

0.7002001

0.6989998

0.7000650

0.7001743

0.6991969

0.6994784

0.6989646

0.6990692

m

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

Estimator

0.7002165

0.7004876

0.7003610

0.6999838

0.7005713

0.6999416

0.7002857

0.6994377

0.7014634

0.7006525

0.6990392

0.7000828

0.7002303

0.6998042

0.6998279

0.7001710

0.6997215

0.7002638

0.6995332

0.6997596

m

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Estimator

0.7015747

0.7015014

0.7013668

0.6998179

0.6998254

0.7013401

0.6995560

0.7000568

0.7005608

0.7003955

0.6990901

0.7003916

0.7006321

0.7010765

0.6999474

0.6994453

0.7009078

0.7007193

0.7002488

0.7012894

Figure 4. WCLSE for offspring mean of process Z (n), n 1000. (from 100 simulations)

According to the figure 4, estimators are in interval [0.6984,0.7022] and WCLSE estimator is correct and very close to the true value. Table 7

shows CLSE of offspring mean in each branching process.

Table 7. CLSE of offspring mean in process Z (n), n 1000.

m

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Estimator

0.6991201

0.7004499

0.6989473

0.7001467

0.7008292

0.7001821

0.6996539

0.6992182

0.7000698

0.6995649

0.7011370

0.6985814

0.7002251

0.7003713

0.7015441

0.6997397

0.7008023

0.6991474

0.7001589

0.6998773

m

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

Estimator

0.6987908

0.6995482

0.6997619

0.6994819

0.7006255

0.7011260

0.6994767

0.6989743

0.7002381

0.7004117

0.7006797

0.7023530

0.6998834

0.6988572

0.7005806

0.6995218

0.7009119

0.6999050

0.7002009

0.6987908

m

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

Estimator

0.6992529

0.6992938

0.7003483

0.7002145

0.7002460

0.7004181

0.6994865

0.6990554

0.6993561

0.7005090

0.7008764

0.6995922

0.7003249

0.6992967

0.7001937

0.7008288

0.6991569

0.6998325

0.6985137

0.6993128

m

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

Estimator

0.7002998

0.7001329

0.7003547

0.6997684

0.7007078

0.6998983

0.7002949

0.6997725

0.7017657

0.7012172

0.6996542

0.7004307

0.7007013

0.6995736

0.6992675

0.7001672

0.6996045

0.7003807

0.6991838

0.6997979

m

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Estimator

0.7013553

0.7018311

0.7011115

0.6997741

0.6999352

0.7014095

0.6996042

0.7000216

0.7010455

0.7007435

0.6991696

0.7002680

0.7008469

0.7006862

0.6999745

0.6998211

0.7007357

0.7010149

0.7001507

0.7012116

According to the figure 5, estimators are in interval [0.6985,0.7023]. CLSE estimator is correct and very close to the true value. Now we

compare behavior of these estimators.

Table 9 illustrate that by increasing of generation size, estimators approach to the true value of offspring mean.

167

The Simulation of Conditional Least Squares Estimators and Weighted Conditional Least Squares Estimators for the Offspring Mean in a Subcritical Branc...

World Applied Programming Vol(5), No (12), December, 2015.

Figure 5. CLSE for offspring mean of process Z (n), n 1000. (from 100 simulations)

Table 8. Comparison between WCLSE and CLSE of offspring mean in process Z (n), n 1000.

CLSE

0.70001

0.0000051

0.6985

0.7023

0.000005

Mean

Variance

Minimum

Maximum

MSE

WCLSE

0.7000

0.0000051

0.6984

0.7022

0.000005

Table 9. Average and mean square of error(MSE) for WCLSE and CLSE estimator. (from 100 simulations)

CLSE

n

5

10

50

100

1000

Ave

0.66640

0.66791

0.69840

0.69993

0.70001

WCLSE

MSE

0.1540

0.0206

0.0003

6.570248e-05

5.000781e-05

Ave

0.6830012

0.6859120

0.6989908

0.7002092

0.7000001

MSE

0.1270

0.0204

0.0003

5.602685e-05

5.000685e-05

Figure 6 shows results of estimators when offspring mean is 0.7 and immigration rates are (n) n and (n) log(n) . Although the WCLSE and

CLSE can be negative for lower generations, from figure 6, the estimator places around 0.7 (for the subcritical case) for larger generations

according to the rate of immigration.

As we present in part 2, WCLSE has asymptotically normal distribution and Shapiro-Wilk normality test confirms this assertion (p-value=0.15).

If we note

D (n)

n A (n)

d

N (0, d 2 ),

a(n) a

B (n)

168

4.

Concluding remark

In this paper, we simulate CLSE and WCLSE for offspring mean in a subcritical branching process in the case poisson process. The results show

both of them, estimate the parameter correctly especially when the generations increase.

Acknowledgment

The authors would like to thank University of Guilan for supporting this paper.

References

[1]

[2]

[3]

[4]

Atanasov D, Stoimenova V, Yanev N (2009), Offspring mean estimators in branching processes with immigration. Pliska Stud. Math. Bulgar. 6982.

Heyde, C. C, Seneta E (1974), Notes on Estimation theory for growth and immigration rates in a multiplicative process. J. Appl. Probab. 11:572577.

Klimko L. A, Nelson P. I (1978). On conditional least squares estimation for stochastic processes. Ann. Statist. 6:629642.

Haccou P, Jagers P, Vatutin V (2005). Branching processes: variation, growth, and extinction of populations. Cambridge University Press, New York. ISBN

978-0-521-83220-5.

[5] Rahimov I (2008). Asymptotic distributions for weighted estimators of the offspring mean in a branching process. Adv. Appl. Probab. 39:10541069.

[6] Rahimov I (2009). Limit distributions for weighted estimators of the offspring mean in a branching process. TEST 18:568583.

[7] Rhimov I (2012). Conditional least squares estimators for the offspring mean in a subcritical branching process with immigration. ISSN 0361-0926.

[8] Rahimov I, Omar. M. H (2009). Bootstrap for critical branching process with non-stationary immigration. Pliska Stud. Math. Bulgar. 229244.

[9] Wei C. Z, Winnicki J (1989). Some asymptotic results for branching processes with immigration. in Stochastic Process. Applic. 31:261282.

[10] Wei, C. Z, Winnicki J (1990). Estimation of the mean in the branching process with immigration. Ann. Statist. 18:17571773.

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