Airborne Integrated Systems for Safety Improvement, Flight Hazard Protection and All Weather Operations

Why FLYSAFE? Aviation accidents, efficiency and the role of atmospheric hazards
Leibniz Universität Hannover
FLYSAFE Final Forum, NLR, Amsterdam, 25 March 2009

FLYSAFE Consortium Leibniz Universität Hannover

Final Forum 25 March 2009, NLR, Amsterdam

Page 1 FLY_210UNI_Final_Forum_A03.ppt

Motivation
Worldwide number of commercial jet aircraft accidents More than 5000 fatalities (1998-2007)

FLYSAFE Consortium Leibniz Universität Hannover

Final Forum 25 March 2009, NLR, Amsterdam

Page 2 FLY_210UNI_Final_Forum_A03.ppt

Motivation
Accident rate is low Significant decrease of accident rate over the last 20 years Much has already been achieved! Unchanged/slow decrease since about 1998

FLYSAFE Consortium Leibniz Universität Hannover

Final Forum 25 March 2009, NLR, Amsterdam

Page 3 FLY_210UNI_Final_Forum_A03.ppt

Motivation
Volume of air traffic still increasing Doubling expected until 2020

FLYSAFE Consortium Leibniz Universität Hannover

Final Forum 25 March 2009, NLR, Amsterdam

Page 4 FLY_210UNI_Final_Forum_A03.ppt

Motivation
Low, near constant accident rate Increasing air traffic volume expected.

Risk of unacceptable increase Risk of unacceptable increase of absolute number of accidents! of absolute number of accidents!

FLYSAFE FLYSAFE (NG-ISS, WIMS) (NG-ISS, WIMS)
Development of new integrated systems. Reduce accident rate. Prevent increase of absolute number of accidents!
FLYSAFE Consortium Leibniz Universität Hannover Final Forum 25 March 2009, NLR, Amsterdam Page 5 FLY_210UNI_Final_Forum_A03.ppt

Causes of aviation accidents

Possible FLYSAFE benefits

FLYSAFE Consortium Leibniz Universität Hannover

Final Forum 25 March 2009, NLR, Amsterdam

Page 6 FLY_210UNI_Final_Forum_A03.ppt

Weather related accidents
Weather impact: 43.8% non-fatal, 13.3% fatal accidents (heavy a/c > 27 t) Strong mass group and flight phase dependence of weather related accidents Large a/c: Most accidents during en route (>55%) Small a/c: Most accidents during approach and landing (~27% each)

FLYSAFE Consortium Leibniz Universität Hannover

Final Forum 25 March 2009, NLR, Amsterdam

Page 7 FLY_210UNI_Final_Forum_A03.ppt

Weather related accidents
Flight phase dependency of weather related accidents (a/c > 27 t)

En Route
27 001 to 272 000 Kg
LST 1% HAIL 5% WAKEV 1% TSP 6% PREC LVIS 2% 1% ICE 1% AQUA/ICY 31%

Landing
27 001 to 272 000 Kg WAKEV 1%

WIND 27%

Slippery runway

Wind
LST 1% TSP 1%

Turbulence
TURB 83%

Turbulence Low vis
PREC 23% LVIS 16%

FLYSAFE Consortium Leibniz Universität Hannover

Final Forum 25 March 2009, NLR, Amsterdam

Page 8 FLY_210UNI_Final_Forum_A03.ppt

The role of weather in air traffic delays
Weather impacts safety and efficiency of air traffic Cb as a threat => aircraft changing their route => delay is produced Relation between safety and efficiency! The WIMS also generate efficiency benefits and help to reduce delays! Detailed studies on the role of weather in air traffic delays: Determine the general role of weather in air traffic delays Quantify the weather impact on delays using new methods Investigate what knowledge about actual and future weather is required where and over which time scales and with which accuracy to reduce weather-related delays

FLYSAFE Consortium Leibniz Universität Hannover

Final Forum 25 March 2009, NLR, Amsterdam

Page 9 FLY_210UNI_Final_Forum_A03.ppt

The role of weather in air traffic delays
WEATHER PHENOMENA Visibility In-flight icing Wind Thunderstorms Turbulence Snow and ice Volcanic ash Sandstorms Wake vortices

EFFICIENCY
strong moderate weak strong

SAFETY
moderate weak

FLYSAFE Consortium Leibniz Universität Hannover

Final Forum 25 March 2009, NLR, Amsterdam

Page 10 FLY_210UNI_Final_Forum_A03.ppt

The role of weather in air traffic delays
2 Actual Modelled versus actual punctuality, R = 0.7 and modelled punctuality Literature survey of the weather impact on efficiency Weather: 65% of all delays

Most studies/reports based on the analysis of delay codes not always unambiguous Successful quantification/forecast of the weather related delays using a multivariate linear regression model Valuable input from WIMS possible Deviation

FLYSAFE Consortium Leibniz Universität Hannover

Final Forum 25 March 2009, NLR, Amsterdam

Page 11 FLY_210UNI_Final_Forum_A03.ppt

The role of weather in air traffic delays
Actual and modelled punctuality Literature survey of the weather impact on efficiency Weather: 65% of all delays Most studies/reports based on the analysis of delay codes not always unambiguous Successful quantification/forecast of the weather related delays using a multivariate linear regression model Valuable input from WIMS possible Deviation

FLYSAFE Consortium Leibniz Universität Hannover

Final Forum 25 March 2009, NLR, Amsterdam

Page 12 FLY_210UNI_Final_Forum_A03.ppt

The role of weather in air traffic delays
Questionnaire to ATM, ATC and airport operators Weather situations with strongest impact:

Possible FLYSAFE benefits

FLYSAFE Consortium Leibniz Universität Hannover

Final Forum 25 March 2009, NLR, Amsterdam

Page 13 FLY_210UNI_Final_Forum_A03.ppt

The role of weather in air traffic delays
Questionnaire to ATM, ATC and airport operators (cont’d) Radar images including Cb + lightning information Short term weather info updates Better access to wind charts (at different flight levels) Continuous information on Turbulence conditions Icing at different flight levels CAT and wind shear

The WIMS exactly meet the requirements named
FLYSAFE Consortium Leibniz Universität Hannover Final Forum 25 March 2009, NLR, Amsterdam Page 14 FLY_210UNI_Final_Forum_A03.ppt

Weather impact on aviation Summary
Weather contributes to one third of nonfatal accidents Weather contributes to every sixth fatal accident Turbulence prime cause for most weather related nonfatal injuries Low visibility prime cause for most weather related fatal injuries Weather impacts efficiency and can cause delays Weather impact can be modeled FLYSAFE products (NG-ISS / WIMS) reduce negative impacts!

FLYSAFE Consortium Leibniz Universität Hannover

Final Forum 25 March 2009, NLR, Amsterdam

Page 15 FLY_210UNI_Final_Forum_A03.ppt

Sign up to vote on this title
UsefulNot useful