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PP 7767/09/2010(025354)

RHB RESEARCH INSTITUTE SDN. BHD.

马来西亚 RHB Research


技术分析 Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group
Company No: 233327 -M

每日交投策略
MARKET DATELINE

2010 年 5 月 20 日

市场技术解读
预期将出现更多调整!

图 1∶富时大马综合指数(FBM KLCI)(日线图) 图 2∶富时大马综合指数(单日线图)

本地股市的交投指引∶

♦ 由于德国在隔夜出人意表地禁止一些投资工具的“裸卖空”(naked short-selling),这触发了排山倒海式的抛售活动,
从而导致全球股市于周三暴跌。

♦ 随着德国金融监管当局宣布暂时禁止该国 10 家最大的金融机构股票的卖空交易,以及特定的欧元区政府债务和信用违约掉
期交易(credit default swaps),印尼耶加达指数和印度 Sensex 指数便分别以 3.69% 和 2.77% 的跌势带头急挫。

♦ 与其为了防止金融市场出现动荡走势,这些措施却被市场视为欧洲金融市场的情况可能比预期来得更严重的讯号。除此外,
投资者也对可能会在本周进行表决的美国金融改革的进展感到紧张。

♦ 事实上,在欧洲股市于午市猛跌超过 2% 后,抛风也进一步恶化。

♦ 在本地,随着大资本股项遭到抛风欺压,富时大马综合指数(FBM KLCI)也重挫了 21.94 点或 1.65% 至 1,308.23 点。


总交投量也从周二的 6 亿 9 千 100 万股,扩大至 7 亿 8 千 200 万股。下跌股以 5 对 1 的比率遥遥领先上涨股。

技术解读∶

♦ 在母熊转强下,富时综指也加剧了其下跌动力,并迈向 1,300 点心理大关下滑。

♦ 随着它以一根巨大利淡阴烛跌破 1,315.63 点的近日低点,卖压步伐看来将会在今日加剧。

♦ 再加上看淡的短期动力解读,它即将试叩 1,300 点。一旦丢失这道关卡,这将会确认一个悲观的中期趋势。这主要基于 10


日移动平均线将会在接下来往下跌破 40 日移动平均线。

♦ 换言之,富时综指已准备进一步回调至 1,250 点,接下来则是试叩 1,200 点重要心理大关。

♦ 强力障碍线维持在 40 日和 10 日移动平均线(即 1,334 点)

请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露( IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES)


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2010 年 5 月 20 日

每日交投策略∶

♦ 经过昨日双位数的跌势后,富时综指的图表如今已转为更黯淡。

♦ 一如所料,该指数将在今日试探 1,300 点关键心理大关。

♦ 然而,从大部分指标的当前利淡讯号看来,加上跌破近日的 1,315.63 点低点,我们认为,主要指数可能会穿破 1,300 点重


要扶持水平。

♦ 事实上,若市场在今日进一步走低,那么 10 日移动平均线将会往下跌破 40 日移动平均线(即 1,334 点)以触发一个“死


亡交叉”(dead cross),届时,这将反映出富时综指的中期展望已出现一个重大的“卖出”讯号。

♦ 换言之,我们预料该指数将会在今日跌破 1,300 点,并在近期内进一步回调至 1,250 点和 1,200 点的心理关口。

♦ 有鉴于此,在市场出现更多调整前,投资者应减仓离场。

表 1 ∶每日统计 表 2∶主要海外指数及原产品
5月 5月 5月 5月 5月 变动 变动
收盘
股市摘要 13 日 14 日 17 日 18 日 19 日 本地主要指数 (点) (%)
上升股 富时大马综合指数 1,308.23 -21.94 -1.6
396 293 187 336 135
下跌股 富时大马 100 指数 8,563.14 -149.16 -1.7
253 371 557 295 689
平盘 富时大马创业板 3,932.74 -52.45 -1.3
285 260 194 287 175
无交易 各大海外指数
443 453 439 460 379
道琼斯工商指数 10,444.37 -66.58 -0.6
市场资本 纳斯达克指数 2,298.37 -18.89 -0.8
总成交量 标准与普尔 500 1,115.05 -5.75 -0.5
(百万股) 906 682 633 691 782 伦敦金融时报指数 5,158.08 -149.26 -2.8
总成交值 恒生指数 19,578.98 -365.96 -1.8
(百万令吉) 1,040 1,084 1,009 1,144 1,403 雅加达综合指数 2,729.48 -104.71 -3.7
东京日经 225 指数 10,186.84 -55.80 -0.5
外汇 首尔综合指数 1,630.08 -13.16 -0.8
令吉兑美元 3.1950 3.1835 3.2265 3.2100 3.2510 上海综合指数 2,587.81 -6.97 -0.3
曼谷综合指数 765.54 5.43 0.7
资料来源∶RHBInvest &彭博社( Bloomberg) 富时新加坡海峡时报指
数 2,774.54 -69.81 -2.5
台湾加权指数 7,559.16 -26.14 -0.3
印度 Sensex 指数 16,408.49 -467.27 -2.8
主要原产品
纽约商品交易所
(NYMEX)原油期货
(每桶/美元) 69.87 0.46 0.7
MDEX 原棕油 – 第 3
个月 (每公吨/令吉) 2,435.00 -10.00 -0.4
美国利率 目前 最新
10 年 4 月
隔夜联邦基金利率 0-0.25% 无变动
27 日-28 日
下个联邦公开市场操作
2010 年 6 月 22 日-23 日
委员会(FOMC)会议

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2010 年 5 月 20 日

图 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(日线图) 图 4∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(单日线图)

技术解读∶

♦ 在母熊昨日全面掌控下,吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)在市场日益担心欧洲和美国将进一步收紧金融管制之际,加剧了利淡
动力,并暴跌将近 2%。

♦ 从 1,325 点高峰,母熊便一路压低市场,然后才在午盘面对更为强劲的抛压。这是因为海外股市,尤其是欧洲股市的行情全
线告急。

♦ 收盘时,FKLI 的 5 月份期约狂泻 26.50 点至 1,304.00 点。

♦ 在 10 日和 40 日移动平均线于周二触发利淡交叉后,该指数于昨日划出一根巨大的利淡阴烛,从而确认其中期“卖出”讯
号。

♦ 从如此黯淡的技术进展看来,该指数确实有可能会在今日跌破 1,300 点当前扶持线。

♦ 值得谨慎的是,一旦失守 1,300 点大关,这将会确认 FKLI 的当前调整波浪。

♦ 这轮下跌波段的当前下跌目标为 1,270 点。不过实际上,我们认为,这轮调整的目标将达到 1,200 点心理关口。

♦ 至于强力阻力水平分别位于 10 日移动平均线(即 1,331 点)和 40 日移动平均线(即 1,334 点)。

每日交投策略∶

♦ 昨日的显著回档走势仍是预料中事,基于我们一直放眼它将会在近日内试探 1,300 点。

♦ 不过,我们认为,交易员应维持“作空”部位,鉴于一旦失去 1,300 点,这将会带动它试探 1,270 点或更低。

♦ 期货指数在今日的交投波幅应位于 1,288 点至 1,304 点之间。

表 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)收盘
FKLI (月份) 变动
合约 开盘 最高 最低 收盘 (点) 结算 成交量 未平仓宗数
10 年 5 月 1323.00 1325.00 1303.50 1304.00 -26.50 1304.00 11543 21684
10 年 6 月 1323.00 1325.00 1304.00 1304.50 -26.00 1304.50 1374 1208
10 年 9 月 1322.50 1325.00 1306.00 1306.00 -25.00 1305.50 234 260
10 年 12 月 1323.00 1326.00 1308.00 1308.00 -24.00 1307.50 94 190

资料来源∶大马交易所( Bursa Malaysia)

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2010 年 5 月 20 日

图 5∶美国道琼斯工商指数(DJIA)(日线图) 图 6∶美国纳斯达克指数(Nasdaq)(日线图)

美国股市的交投指引∶

♦ 在德国出人意表地禁止特定股项和债券的卖空活动后,这造成了金融市场不明朗,结果华尔街股市于周三一连第 2 日走低。

♦ 投资者也抛售工业股,主要担心近日创下 4 年新低的欧元可能会打击这些公司的盈利。表现最差的道指成份股,Caterpillar
下滑了 2.8%,至于波音(Boeing)和 3M 则分别滑跌 2.2% 和 1.1%。

♦ 不过,经过早盘的强力抛压后,市场便在趁低吸购活动下转头复苏,基于美国参议院准备表决是否要结束金融改革的辩论。

♦ 经过连跌 6 日后,美国轻质原油期货的 6 月份期约终于展开温和的反弹,即将届满的期约回弹了 0.46 美元或 0.6% 至每桶


69.87 美元。

技术解读∶

道琼斯工商指数 (Dow Jones Industrial Average 或 DJIA)

♦ 在触底于 10,324.66 点低点后,美国道琼斯工商指数(US DJIA)于午盘强力复苏。闭市时,它收窄了 3 位数的早盘跌势


至 66.58 点或 0.63% 至 10,444.37 点。

♦ 这也使到它形成一根潜在的“锤头线”(hammer),显示该指数在经历了近日的跌势后,可能会在今日反弹。

♦ 可是,鉴于整体技术解读维持看淡,因此我们仍对任何的反弹感到质疑,而强力阻力水平料将维持在 21 日移动平均线(即
10,850 点)。

♦ 其实,一旦卖压恢复或者如果它无法突围 10,850 点,那么这将会逆转昨日的临尾复苏动力,而带领它下探至 10,150 点。


换言之,我们还是继续看淡道指。

纳斯达克指数 (Nasdaq Composite 或 Nasdaq)

♦ 纳斯达克指数(Nasdaq Composite Index)以一根潜在的“启明星型态”(morning star)收窄跌势。该指数于昨日报


收于 2,298.37 点,共跌了 18.89 点或 0.82%。

♦ 虽然它今日可能会复苏,但从它近日跌破 2,330 点关口的走势和惨淡的短期动力指标解读看来,任何的复苏走势将不强且无


法持久。

♦ 所以,只要它还是无法收复 2,330 点关口,那么它仍可能会进一步下挫至 2,190 点。

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2010 年 5 月 20 日

每日技术焦点∶
图 7∶ IOI 集团( IOICorp)(日线图) 图 8∶ IOI 集团(单日线图)

IOI 集团 IOI Corporation (1961)

可能会跌破 4.85 令吉当前扶持水平…

♦ 虽然 IOI 集团在 2009 年 1 月初未能突围 3.88 令吉阻力线,但该股重新整顿,并终于在 2009 年 4 月一举冲破该道关卡。

♦ 之后,该股便恢复其稳健的上升趋势,并在 2009 年 8 月一再攻下另一道位于 4.85 令吉阻力线。

♦ 这轮稳健的上升趋势一直持续下去,直到它在 2010 年 1 月写下一年半以来的新高,即 5.60 令吉。

♦ 从此以后,其升势便不断受牵制于 5.60 令吉。

♦ 从 5 月初起,卖压动力便显著加强,而该股也在 10 日移动平均线向下跌破 40 日移动平均线后,便大幅回调。

♦ 它连跌 3 日,并于昨日记录了一根巨大利淡阴烛,猛挫了 26 仙或 4.9% 至 5.00 令吉。图表显示今日极有可能会出现跟进


卖压动力。

♦ 当前支撑水平位于 4.85 令吉,不过从当前极为悲观的动力解读和图表形态看来,它可能会在近日跌破该道扶持线,并会在


近期内延伸其跌势。

♦ 下一道主要支撑水平落在 3.88 令吉阻力转为支撑水平(resistance-turn-support level)。

技术解读∶

♦ 10 日移动平均线(10-day SMA): RM5.331

♦ 40 日移动平均线(40-day SMA): RM5.423

♦ 支撑水平: IS = RM4.85 S1 = RM3.88 S2 = RM2.96

♦ 阻力水平: IR = RM5.60 R1 = RM6.40 R2 = RM7.20

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
opinions and information contained herein are based on generally available data believed to be reliable and are subject to change without notice, and may differ or
be contrary to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to be
construed as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered herein. RHBRI does not warrant the accuracy of anything stated herein in any
manner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against RHBRI. RHBRI and/or its associated persons
may from time to time have an interest in the securities mentioned by this report.

This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives
of persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. RHBRI recommends that investors independently evaluate
particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The appropriateness of a particular investment or
strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives. Neither RHBRI, RHB Group nor any of its affiliates, employees or agents accepts
any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this report.

RHBRI and the Connected Persons (the “RHB Group”) are engaged in securities trading, securities brokerage, banking and financing activities as well as providing
investment banking and financial advisory services. In the ordinary course of its trading, brokerage, banking and financing activities, any member of the RHB
Group may at any time hold positions, and may trade or otherwise effect transactions, for its own account or the accounts of customers, in debt or equity
securities or loans of any company that may be involved in this transaction.

“Connected Persons” means any holding company of RHBRI, the subsidiaries and subsidiary undertaking of such a holding company and the respective directors,
officers, employees and agents of each of them. Investors should assume that the “Connected Persons” are seeking or will seek investment banking or other
services from the companies in which the securities have been discussed/covered by RHBRI in this report or in RHBRI’s previous reports.

This report has been prepared by the research personnel of RHBRI. Facts and views presented in this report have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect
information known to, professionals in other business areas of the “Connected Persons,” including investment banking personnel.

The research analysts, economists or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based
upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues.

Technical recommendation framework for stocks and sectors are as follows: -

Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.

Technical Time Frame:


Immediate-term = short time frame within a contra period.
Short-term = moderate time frame within two to three contra periods. For tracking purposes, we refer to 10 trading days.
Medium-term = medium time frame usually refers to two to three weeks period. For tracking purposes, we refer to 20 trading days.

Technical recommendations are generally short-term in nature and may differ from RHBRI’s equity fundamental view and recommendation on the same company.

RHBRI is a participant of the CMDF-Bursa Research Scheme and will receive compensation for the participation. Additional information on recommended
securities, subject to the duties of confidentiality, will be made available upon request.

This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of RHBRI and RHBRI accepts no liability whatsoever for the
actions of third parties in this respect.

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