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Carbon assessment and anticipated carbon project in a degraded

mangrove forests in Pasang Kayu area of the Mamuju Utara district, West
Sulawesi province
Iwan Tri Cahyo Wibisono1, Saepul Ichwan2, Muh.Ilman3, Nyoman Suryadiputra4

Extended summary
A study was carried out by Wetlands International Indonesia Programme in June-July 2010,
supported by Marathon oil and Carbone. It focused on 4,835 hectares of mangrove ecosystem
lying along Pasangkayu coastal area. The study aimed to estimate carbon stock in study area
and projected future CO2 emission as the impact of anticipated carbon project.
From GIS work, total carbon stock of study area in 2004 estimated to be reaching 310,737.34
ton (1,139,370 ton CO2 eq). From this amount, 44.02 % of total carbon stock or 136,781.45
ton C 501,532 t CO2 eq) was stored within dense mangrove forest. Meanwhile sparse
mangrove forest stored about 38.98% of total carbon or 121,136.23 ton C (or 444,166 t CO2
eq). This condition has clearly showed that the existence of mangrove forest is very important
as carbon reservoirs. While shrubs stored only about 26,462.18 ton C and settlement area
stored 335.39 ton C.
Based on GIS analysis, total carbon stock in 2009 was remained only 182,850.62 ton
(670,452 ton CO2 equivalent) compared to 310,737.34 t C (or 1,139,370 t CO2) in 2004.
This means about 127,886.72 ton of C stocks was gone from the project area within 20042009. This carbon reduction was mainly due to conversion of mangrove (dense and sparse)
forests into aquaculture ponds.

Forestry and rehabilitation specialist, Wetlands International Indonesia Programme

GIS specialist, Land Management Grant College (LMGC)-Institut Pertanian Bogor (IPB)
Coastal socio economic specialist, Wetlands International Indonesia Programme
Programe Director, Wetlands International Indonesia Programme

Figure 1. The change of carbon driven by land cover change 2004-2009

Calculation result found that annual CO2 emission from deforestation within 2004-2009 was
90,051.65 ton. Conversion from mangrove forest to aquaculture pond was the main driver of
CO2 emission. Meanwhile, CO2 emission from degradation within the same period was only
5,011.08 ton.
Within 2004-2009, land cover improvement was occurred, mainly generated by natural
vegetation re-growth or succession. Based on calculation, vegetation improvement (regrowth, succession) positively contributed to the offset of 1,279.13 ton CO2 annually.
Under BAU (Business As Usual) scenario, it is assumed theres no intervention at all applied
in the study area. In this regards, emission projection in the future is estimated by using
historical data (annual CO2 emission from deforestation, annual CO2 emission from
degradation and annual CO2 offset from re-growth). From emission accounting, it is
estimated that some 494,685 ton CO2 will be emitted at the end of 40 years, driven by
deforestation. Some 47,608.27 ton CO2 emission will also be released to the atmosphere due
to degradation within 40 year. However, it is estimated that natural re-growth potentially will
be able to sequester some 51,165.23 ton CO2 in year 40th. It is therefore can be concluded that
a total of 491,101.89 ton of net CO2 emission will be released to the atmosphere in the end of
40 years project period.
Adopting VCS 2008, three options of carbon credit project scenarios can potentially be
proposed namely REDD, ARR or REDD+ARR. In this paper, however, calculation only
focuses on REDD+ARR.
Based on calculation within 40 year ahead, 50% cut of deforestation rate still contributed to
247,329.42 ton CO2 emission. While from the 50% of deforestation rate cut, it still
contributes to 87,281.83 ton CO2 emission. Re-growth maintained by project potentially will

contribute offset 51,165.23 ton CO2. By carbon enhancement intervention through replanting,
project potentially projected to offset: 284,131.85 ton CO2 from mangrove replanting,
19,772.87 ton CO2 from rehabilitation of open area along the beach, and 20,141.00 ton CO2
from rehabilitation program conducted in village.
Under REDD+ ARR, this study estimated some 40,599.70 ton CO2 cumulatively to be
sequestered through trees living biomass within 40 year. While without intervention, CO2
emission will be at 491,101.89 ton. Therefore it can be concluded that REDD + ARR project
has potential to avoid 531,701 ton CO2 emission within 40 year.

Figure 2. Cumulative avoided CO2 emission from REDD +ARR project

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