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Q2 2007

Manpower
Employment
Outlook Survey
United States

A Manpower Research Report


Q2/07
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Contents

United States Employment Outlook 1


Regional Comparisons
Sector Comparisons

Global Employment Outlook 13


International Comparisons – Americas
International Comparisons – Asia Pacific
International Comparisons – EMEA

About the Survey 20

About Manpower 21
United States Employment Outlook
More than 14,000 interviews Among the U.S. employers surveyed, 28% foresee an
increase in hiring activity, and 7% expect a decline in
have been conducted with staff levels during the second quarter of 2007. Fifty-nine
percent anticipate no change in the hiring pace, while
employers across the 6% are undecided about their April – June hiring plans.
United States to measure When seasonal variations are removed from the data, the
anticipated employment labor market story for April to June is similar to the first
quarter report. However, a look at the last three quarters
trends between April and shows that the demand for headcount is gradually
June 2007. All participants decreasing, and employers are not as upbeat about
their hiring plans compared with last year at this time.
were asked, “How do you Please note that throughout this report, the figure used
anticipate total employment in all graphs is the ‘‘Net Employment Outlook’’. This

at your location to change figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers


anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting
in the three months to the from this the percentage of employers that expect to
see a decrease in employment at their location in the
end of June 2007 as next quarter.
compared to the current
quarter?”

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
2nd Quarter 2007 28 7 59 6 21 18
1st Quarter 2007 23 11 60 6 12 19
4th Quarter 2006 28 8 58 6 20 20
3rd Quarter 2006 31 6 57 6 25 21
2nd Quarter 2006 30 6 58 6 24 21

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

The results of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey in the United States include Puerto Rico.

1
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

According to seasonally adjusted survey results, Employers in more than half of the industry sectors
employers across the 10 industry sectors surveyed foresee a weakening of the hiring pace during the
are more inclined to maintain or decrease the hiring second quarter of 2007 versus the same period last
pace versus boosting employment activity. year. Those sectors include Construction, Mining,
Durable Goods Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail Trade,
Employers in Durable and Non-Durable Goods
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate and Services.
Manufacturing, Education and Public Administration
Hiring in the Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing,
sectors expressed similar hiring intentions for the
Transportation/Public Utilities and Education sectors
first and second quarters of 2007. Confidence about
is expected to be similar to last year at this time.
hiring declined slightly since the first quarter in four
Only Public Administration employers anticipate slightly
industry sectors – Mining, Construction,
improved conditions for job seekers in the coming
Wholesale/Retail Trade and Services. Hiring managers
quarter versus the second quarter of 2006.
in two sectors, Transportation/Public Utilities and
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, foresee slightly more
hiring in the spring timeframe than in beginning months
of the year.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
Construction 36 7 52 5 29 16
Education 21 7 68 4 14 15
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 24 6 65 5 18 17
Manufacturing – Durables 30 9 56 5 21 17
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 28 8 59 5 20 18
Mining 33 5 57 5 28 26
Public Administration 26 4 63 7 22 16
Services 29 6 59 6 23 19
Transportation & Public Utilities 26 8 60 6 18 19
Wholesale & Retail Trade 29 8 57 6 21 20

At the overall national level, the margin of error on the data is +/– 0.8%.

Compared to the January to March period, employers A look across the regions shows that employers in the
in the Northeast and South expect to maintain a similar South predict the most rapid hiring pace, while those in
hiring pace for the second quarter. Those in the the Midwest report the most conservative hiring plans.
Midwest and the West are likely to experience slightly
weaker hiring conditions in the next three months.

Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know Net Employment Seasonally


Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
Midwest 27 7 62 4 20 15
Northeast 28 8 59 5 20 19
South 29 6 59 6 23 21
West 31 9 51 9 22 19

2
Regional Comparisons In seven out of 10 industry sectors surveyed in the
Midwest, employers expect to reign in their hiring plans
Midwest +20 (15)% in the second quarter. A slightly slower hiring pace is
anticipated for the Construction, Non-Durable Goods
In the Midwest, 27% of employers anticipate an increase
Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail Trade, Education,
in the hiring pace, while 7% expect to decrease staff
Services and Public Administration sectors. Mining
levels. The result is a Net Employment Outlook of
employers made a stronger statement, reporting a
+20%. The seasonally adjusted survey results indicate
moderate decrease in staffing plans. Employers in
that Midwest employers are taking a more conservative
Transportation/Public Utilities report a slightly more
approach to their hiring plans in the second quarter
positive approach to hiring, while Durable Goods
of 2007. Hiring activity is expected to be down slightly
Manufacturers and Finance/Insurance/Real Estate
from the first quarter and one year ago. A regional
employers expect to maintain the same hiring pace
comparison reveals that Midwest employers have the
they had during the first quarter.
most subdued hiring projections for the spring months.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 27 7 62 4 20 15
Construction 40 7 49 4 33 13
Education 18 7 72 3 11 12
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 21 5 69 5 16 15
Manufacturing – Durables 30 10 56 4 20 15
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 26 8 63 3 18 14
Mining 0 0 100 0 0 0
Public Administration 25 5 67 3 20 9
Services 26 6 64 4 20 16
Transportation & Public Utilities 23 8 65 4 15 16
Wholesale & Retail Trade 27 6 62 5 21 17

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

The Midwest Region comprises the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South
Dakota, Wisconsin.

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Northeast +20 (19)% Across the 10 industry sectors, hiring plans are varied.
Wholesale/Retail Trade and Services employers reveal
Twenty-eight percent of employers in the Northeast plan hiring intentions similar to those reported in the first
to increase staff levels, while 8% expect to reduce quarter. Construction, Transportation/Public Utilities and
headcount, thus the Net Employment Outlook is +20%. Education employers expect a slight up-tick in the
According to the seasonally adjusted data, employers hiring pace. Compared with the first quarter, a modest
anticipate continued labor market stability. For the gain in employer confidence is apparent among Non-
second quarter, employers are equally as confident Durable Goods Manufacturing and Public Administration
about hiring as they were during the first three months employers. Job prospects are not as promising in the
of the year. Compared with the second quarter of 2006, Durable Goods Manufacturing and Finance/Insurance/Real
hiring managers are slightly more likely to add staff. Estate sectors. Job seekers looking for Mining work are
likely to find a softer job market, as employers report a
moderate decline in hiring intentions.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 28 8 59 5 20 19
Construction 37 5 50 8 32 23
Education 18 6 70 6 12 12
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 25 7 62 6 18 16
Manufacturing – Durables 29 10 56 5 19 19
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 30 8 57 5 22 22
Mining 0 0 100 0 0 10
Public Administration 17 3 74 6 14 11
Services 30 6 59 5 24 22
Transportation & Public Utilities 23 7 64 6 16 18
Wholesale & Retail Trade 29 12 54 5 17 20

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

The Northeast Region comprises the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania,
Rhode Island, Vermont.

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South +23 (21)% Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing,
Education and Services employers express hiring
Twenty-nine percent of employers surveyed in the South intentions that are similar to the first quarter. Second
are likely to increase staff levels, while 6% expect to trim quarter hiring plans are more reserved in the Mining,
payrolls during the second quarter. This creates a Net Construction, Wholesale/Retail Trade and Public
Employment Outlook of +23%. Hiring plans are stable in Administration sectors. Job prospects are expected to
comparison to last quarter, while a year-over-year improve slightly in the Transportation/Public Utilities and
review shows that the hiring pace is expected to be Finance/Insurance/Real Estate sectors.
slower during the second quarter of 2007. Employers in
the South express the strongest hiring intentions when
compared with the three other regions surveyed.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 29 6 59 6 23 21
Construction 35 7 54 4 28 19
Education 24 4 69 3 20 23
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 24 3 67 6 21 20
Manufacturing – Durables 31 5 58 6 26 22
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 28 7 59 6 21 18
Mining 33 7 56 4 26 22
Public Administration 25 4 63 8 21 17
Services 31 5 58 6 26 22
Transportation & Public Utilities 27 6 62 5 21 22
Wholesale & Retail Trade 30 7 57 6 23 23

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

The South Region comprises the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland,
Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

West +22 (19)% Compared with the first quarter, job seekers are
likely to experience more positive employment
In the West, 31% of employers surveyed anticipate an conditions in the Construction, Transportation/Public
increase in payrolls during the second quarter of 2007, Utilities, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate and Public
while 9% plan to contract staff levels, resulting in a Net Administration sectors. Wholesale/Retail Trade
Employment Outlook of +22%. When seasonal variations employers foresee no change in their hiring forecast.
are removed from the data, a weakening trend in Employers in half of the industry sectors surveyed
employer confidence is apparent. Employers have have more conservative hiring plans for the next three
slightly less positive staffing plans when compared months versus first quarter. A slight decline in the
with first quarter hiring projections. The year-over-year hiring pace is likely in the Mining, Durable Goods
comparison shows a wider gap, with hiring plans that Manufacturing and Education sectors. Non-Durable
are moderately down from last year at this time. Goods Manufacturers expect hiring rates to dip
moderately. Services employers have the most notable
change in sentiment with considerably less positive
hiring expectations for the second quarter.

Net Employment Seasonally


Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 31 9 51 9 22 19
Construction 33 7 51 9 26 13
Education 23 12 60 5 11 12
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 29 11 54 6 18 16
Manufacturing – Durables 30 13 47 10 17 15
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 26 9 56 9 17 14
Mining 50 0 43 7 50 50
Public Administration 38 2 49 11 36 32
Services 31 6 52 11 25 20
Transportation & Public Utilities 30 10 50 10 20 21
Wholesale & Retail Trade 32 11 47 10 21 22

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

The West Region comprises the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah,
Washington, Wyoming.

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Sector Comparisons
Mining employers are most confident about hiring plans
for the second quarter of 2007, according to seasonally
adjusted survey results. Wholesale/Retail Trade, Services
and Transportation/Public Utilities employers have healthy
hiring plans for the spring months. Employer confidence
is more modest in the Construction and Public
Administration sectors, while Education employers are the
least optimistic about hiring for the April-June period.

Construction 29
16
14
Education
15
18
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
17
21
Manufacturing – Durables
17
20
Manufacturing – Non-Durables
18
28
Mining 26
22
Public Administration 16
23
Services 19
18
Transportation & Public Utilities 19
21
Wholesale & Retail Trade 20

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Construction +29 (16)%


Construction employers anticipate a continued slowing
of the hiring pace, extending a trend that was evident
throughout 2006. Based on seasonally adjusted data,
employer optimism for the second quarter is expected to
decline slightly from the first quarter and considerably
compared with a year ago at this time.

Those seeking construction jobs during the April through


June period are likely to find the most employment
activity in the Northeast while those in the Midwest
and West are expected to face challenges because
of weaker employer confidence.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

Education +14 (15)%


Confidence levels regarding hiring remain stable among
Education sector employers for the April through June
period but are still the weakest among the 10 industry
sectors surveyed. Hiring plans are similar to the first quarter
and a year ago at this time, according to seasonally adjusted
survey results.
The strongest job prospects are reported in the South, while
employers in the Midwest, Northeast and West express
the weakest hiring intentions.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

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Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
+18 (17)%
For the April to June period, employers in the
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate sector are slightly more
optimistic about hiring after two quarters of declining
confidence, according to seasonally adjusted survey
results. However, employers expect the second quarter
hiring pace to be slightly slower than a year ago at
this time.

Employers in the South report the strongest job


prospects, while those in the Midwest have the weakest
hiring intentions.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

Manufacturing – Durable Goods


+21 (17)%
Employer optimism in the Durable Goods Manufacturing
sector continues a decline that began in the first quarter.
Hiring expectations are now at their weakest point since
early 2004. According to seasonally adjusted survey data,
second quarter 2007 hiring activity is expected to be similar
to the first quarter but moderately slower than a year ago.

Job seekers are likely to find the most promising job


prospects in the South and the weakest hiring intentions
among employers in the Midwest and West.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Manufacturing – Non-Durable Goods


+20 (18)%
According to seasonally adjusted survey results,
continued hiring stability is expected in the Non-Durable
Goods Manufacturing sector in the second quarter.
Employer hiring plans are unchanged from the January
– March period and similar to a year ago.

By a wide margin, employers in the Northeast are most


likely to add staff, while those in the Midwest and West
report the weakest hiring plans.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

Mining +28 (26)%


For the second quarter of 2007, optimism about hiring
has slipped among employers in the Mining sector.
However, Mining still has the strongest outlook among all
sectors. When seasonal variations are removed from the
data, employers foresee slightly weaker hiring intentions
from the first quarter, while year-over-year comparisons
show a moderate downturn in staffing plans.

Job prospects are the most promising in the West,


while employers in the Midwest are more conservative
about hiring than the other three regions.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

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Public Administration +22 (16)%
According to seasonally adjusted survey data, employers
in the Public Administration sector remain optimistic about
their staffing plans. The hiring pace is expected to be
similar to the first quarter and shows improvement from
one year ago.

Regional hiring patterns show that employers in the West


expect to offer the most promising job prospects, while
those in the Midwest have the weakest hiring intentions.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

Services +23 (19)%


Hiring activity among Services employers is expected
to soften in the April through June period, according
to seasonally adjusted data. Employers foresee a slight
decline in employment activity from the first quarter
and last year at this time.

Among the regions, employers in the Northeast and


South report the strongest hiring intentions while those
in the Midwest are least likely to add staff.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Transportation & Public Utilities


+18 (19)%
Hiring intentions have improved since the start of 2007
among Transportation/Public Utilities employers, according
to seasonally adjusted survey results. Employers are
slightly more upbeat about hiring compared with the
first quarter, and hiring plans are similar to a year ago.

The strongest hiring activity is reported in the South,


while employers in the Midwest are more reserved
about adding staff than any other region.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

Wholesale & Retail Trade +21 (20)%


The Wholesale/Retail Trade sector has experienced little
fluctuation in hiring during the past three years, and the
second quarter of 2007 is no exception. On a seasonally
adjusted basis, Wholesale/Retail Trade employers foresee
a slight decline in hiring activity in the second quarter
compared with the first quarter and the same period
last year.
Job seekers are likely to find the most promising job
prospects in the South and the weakest hiring intentions
in the Midwest.

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Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook

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Global Employment Outlook
Nearly 50,000 employers have been interviewed across Asia Pacific are mixed, with employers in Singapore,
27 countries and territories to measure anticipated Australia and Japan reporting their most optimistic Net
employment trends* between April and June 2007. Employment Outlooks since the establishment of the
Employers in all of the 27 countries and territories survey in these countries. Employers in Taiwan, India
Manpower surveyed expect to add to their workforces and Hong Kong report weaker job prospects compared
in the next three months. to last year at this time.

Employers in Singapore, Peru, Argentina, South Africa In the Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) region, all
and India report the strongest Quarter 2 hiring plans, 13 countries surveyed report steady hiring activity for
while those in France, Italy, Austria and Belgium Quarter 2 2007. Hiring intentions are strongest in South
report the weakest hiring outlooks. A year-over-year Africa, Ireland, Switzerland and Norway, with employers
comparison reveals hiring is expected to improve in in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, South Africa and
14 of 24 countries and territories. Switzerland reporting their most optimistic Net
Employment Outlooks since the survey began in
Regionally, employers in the Americas continue to report
these countries.
positive Net Employment Outlooks, but hiring demands
have eased somewhat from both Quarter 1 and 12
* Comments in this section are based on seasonally adjusted data
months ago in the U.S. and Canada. Hiring outlooks in where available.

Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change Yr on Yr Change


Americas Quarter 2 2006 Quarter 1 2007 Quarter 2 2007 Q1 2007 to Q2 2007 Q2 2006 to Q2 2007
% % %
Argentina – 35 35 0 –
Canada 29 (21)1 3 (18)1 25 (17)1 22 (-1)1 -4 (-4)1
Costa Rica – 26 20 -6 –
Mexico 21 (19)1 17 (19)1 22 (20)1 5 (1)1 1 (1)1
Peru 31 52 48 -4 17
United States 24 (21)1 12 (19)1 21 (18)1 9 (-1)1 -3 (-3)1

Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change Yr on Yr Change


Asia Pacific Quarter 2 2006 Quarter 1 2007 Quarter 2 2007 Q1 2007 to Q2 2007 Q2 2006 to Q2 2007
% % %
Australia 20 (18)1 24 (24)1 31 (29)1 7 (5)1 11 (11)1
China 21 18 21 3 0
Hong Kong 25 (25)1 18 (19)1 24 (24)1 6 (5)1 -1 (-1)1
India 40 39 31 -8 -9
Japan 43 (24)1 18 (25)1 45 (26)1 27 (1)1 2 (2)1
New Zealand 26 (23)1 25 (24)1 32 (29)1 7 (5)1 6 (6)1
Singapore 19 (20)1 44 (46)1 53 (54)1 9 (8)1 34 (34)1
Taiwan 31 15 19 4 -12

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change Yr on Yr Change


EMEA* Quarter 2 2006 Quarter 1 2007 Quarter 2 2007 Q1 2007 to Q2 2007 Q2 2006 to Q2 2007
% % %
Austria 7 (6)1 6 (11)1 10 (7)1 4 (-4)1 3 (1)1
Belgium 8 (8)1 10 (11) 1
7 (8) 1
-3 (-3) 1
-1 (0)1
France 4 (4)1 3 (5) 1
5 (5) 1
2 (0) 1
1 (1)1
1 1 1 1
Germany 5 (3) 2 (5) 12 (10) 10 (5) 7 (7)1
1 1 1 1
Ireland 15 (15) 21 (23) 18 (19) -3 (-4) 3 (4)1
Italy -1 (-2)1 1 (3)1 7 (6)1 6 (3)1 8 (8)1
Netherlands 7 (8)1 6 (7)1 10 (11)1 4 (4)1 3 (3)1
1 1 1 1
Norway 16 (14) 9 (10) 17 (14) 8 (4) 1 (0)1
South Africa – 31 34 3 –
Spain 17 (14)1 13 (16)1 15 (12)1 2 (-4)1 -2 (-2)1
Sweden 16 (11)1 8 (13)1 15 (11)1 7 (-2)1 -1 (0)1
Switzerland 9 11 17 6 8
UK 13 (11)1 12 (15)1 14 (13)1 2 (-2)1 1 (2)1
*EMEA – Europe, Middle East and Africa.
1. Number in parentheses is the Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove seasonal variations.

Survey Respondents by Region


Research for the Quarter 2 Manpower Employment
Outlook Survey involved surveying nearly 50,000 human
resources directors and senior hiring managers from
public and private organizations worldwide. 46% of
respondents came from six countries in the Americas;
30% from eight countries and territories across Asia
Asia Pacific Pacific; and 24% from 13 countries in EMEA.
Americas 30%
46%

EMEA
24%

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International Comparisons – Hiring prospects in Peru and Argentina are the strongest
within the region. Conversely, Canadian employers
Americas report the weakest employment prospects in the region,
while employers in the U.S. report slightly weaker hiring
Nearly 23,000 interviews have been conducted across
prospects from three months ago. Costa Rican
Argentina, Canada, Costa Rica, Mexico, Peru and the
employers also anticipate a moderately weaker hiring
United States to measure employment prospects for
pace in the second quarter.
Quarter 2 2007. The data shows positive hiring
intentions across the region for the next three months; On the other hand, the momentum in the Mexican labor
however, the hiring pace is expected to be slightly market should continue, with employers reporting their
weaker quarter-over-quarter in four of the six countries most optimistic Outlook since the survey began there in
surveyed. Compared to this time last year the Net Quarter 3 2002.
Employment Outlooks across the Americas are mixed.
Argentina Canada
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Argentina joined the survey in Q1 2007.

Costa Rica Mexico


50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Costa Rica joined the survey in Q3 2006.

Peru USA
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Peru joined the survey in Q2 2006. 15


Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

International Comparisons – just four countries – Australia, Japan, New Zealand and
Singapore – indicate improved hiring plans compared to
Asia Pacific Quarter 2 2006. With the exception of India, all Net
Employment Outlooks are stronger quarter-over-quarter.
Over 14,000 interviews have been conducted across
the Asia Pacific region to measure anticipated hiring Employers in Singapore, Australia and Japan report the
activity between April and June 2007. most optimistic Outlooks since the survey began in
these countries in Quarter 3 2003.
Net Employment Outlooks across the Asia Pacific region
indicate solid hiring intentions for the next three months,
with employers in Singapore, India, New Zealand and
Australia reporting the strongest hiring expectations.
However, employer hiring plans are mixed when
year-over-year comparisons are made. Employers in

Australia China
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

China joined the survey in Q2 2005.

Hong Kong India


50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

India joined the survey in Q3 2005.

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Japan New Zealand
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

New Zealand joined the survey in Q2 2004.

Singapore Taiwan
60 50

50 40

40 30

30 20

20 10

10 0

0 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-10 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Taiwan joined the survey in Q2 2005.

17
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

International Comparisons – South African employers are again reporting the


strongest hiring expectations in the region, with
EMEA employers in Ireland, Switzerland and Norway also
reporting upbeat hiring plans for the next three months.
Almost 12,000 interviews have been conducted with
The weakest second quarter Outlooks in EMEA and
employers across 13 EMEA countries to measure
among employers globally are reported in France,
anticipated hiring activity for Quarter 2 2007.
Italy, Austria and Belgium. Both German and Italian
Employers across the region continue to report steady employers plan to increase the pace of hiring from both
hiring intentions, with all 13 countries surveyed Quarter 1 and last year, reporting their most optimistic
recording positive Net Employment Outlooks. Only Outlooks since the survey began in those countries in
Spanish employers anticipate weaker job prospects Quarter 3 2003.
compared to last year, while those in the remaining
countries report stable or improved hiring expectations.

Austria Belgium
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

France Germany
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Ireland Italy
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

18
Netherlands Norway
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

South Africa Spain


50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

South Africa joined the survey in Q4 2006.

Sweden Switzerland
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Switzerland joined the survey in Q3 2005.


No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.
UK
50

40

30

20

10

-10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook
-20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

19
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States

About the Survey Survey Question


The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted All employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked
quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or the same question, “How do you anticipate total employment
decrease the number of employees in their workforces during at your location to change in the three months to the end of
the next quarter. The survey has been running for more than June 2007 as compared to the current quarter?”
40 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of
Net Employment Outlook
employment activity in the world. Various factors underpin the
Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment
success of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey:
Outlook”. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of
Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area
employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and
of focus.
subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to
Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the see a decrease in employment at their location in the next
most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment
world, asking employers to forecast employment over the Outlook.
next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus on
retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past. Seasonal Adjustment
Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has derived Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for
all of its information from a single question. Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany,
Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands,
Independent: The survey is conducted with a representative
New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden,
sample of employers from throughout the countries in which it
United Kingdom and the United States to provide additional
is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from
insight into the survey data. These adjustments make it
Manpower’s customer base.
possible to review the data without the employment fluctuations
Robust: The survey is based on interviews with nearly
that normally occur at the same time each year, thus providing
50,000 public and private employers across 27 countries and
a clearer picture of the data over time. Manpower intends to
territories to measure anticipated employment trends each
add seasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in
quarter.This sample allows for analysis to be performed across
the future, as more historical data is compiled.
specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information.

Methodology
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted
using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest
standards in market research. The research team for the
27 countries and territories where the survey is currently
conducted includes Manpower’s Market Intelligence team;
the Organization Research and Analysis Division of Right
Management Consultants – an independent operating division
of Manpower Inc.; NOP World, Grupo IDM and DATUM
Research. The survey has been structured to be representative
of each national economy. The margin of error for all national,
regional and global data is not greater than +/- 4.3%.

In the United States, the national survey is conducted by


Manpower’s North American Market Intelligence Team and
includes 14,000 employers. With this number of interviews,
the margin of error for the United States survey is +/- 0.8%.

20
History of the Survey About Manpower Inc.
1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the
Survey launched in the United States and Canada. employment services industry; creating and delivering services
1966 Manpower’s UK operation launches the equivalent of that enable its clients to win in the changing world of work.
the United States survey, naming the report the Quarterly The $18 billion company offers employers a range of services
Survey of Employment Prospects. The survey adopts for the entire employment and business cycle including
the same forward-looking research format as the United permanent, temporary and contract recruitment; employee
States survey and is the first of its kind in Europe. assessment and selection; training; outplacement;
1976 2nd generation of Manpower’s Employment Outlook outsourcing and consulting. Manpower’s worldwide network
Survey launched in the United States and Canada. of 4,400 offices in 73 countries and territories enables the
Research methodology is updated to evolve with company to meet the needs of its 400,000 clients per year,
advancements in the field of market research. including small and medium size enterprises in all industry
sectors, as well as the world’s largest multinational corporations.
2002 Manpower UK’s Quarterly Survey of Employment
The focus of Manpower’s work is on raising productivity
Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research
through improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction across
methodology. Manpower’s operations in Mexico and
their total workforce, enabling clients to concentrate on their
Ireland launch the survey in their respective countries.
core business activities. Manpower Inc. operates under five
2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook
brands: Manpower, Manpower Professional, Elan, Jefferson
Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total
Wells and Right Management. More information on Manpower
18 countries and territories worldwide: Australia,
Inc. is available at www.manpower.com.
Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong
Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands,
Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom
and United States.
2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch the
About Manpower USA
In the United States, Manpower offers businesses a range
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
of HR services, in addition to providing administrative,
2005 Manpower operations in China, India, Switzerland and industrial and contact center personnel. Under the
Taiwan launch the Manpower Employment Outlook Manpower Professional brand, the company places
Survey. contract professionals on assignment in areas such as
2006 Manpower operations in Costa Rica, Peru and South information technology, scientific, finance, engineering and
Africa joined the survey program. Surveys in Australia, telecommunications. More information about Manpower’s
Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, US operation can be found at www.us.manpower.com.
Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore,
Spain and Sweden add seasonally adjusted data in the
third quarter.
2007 Manpower operations in Argentina launch the Manpower
Employment Outlook Survey. The survey in New Zealand
adds seasonally adjusted data in the first quarter.
Manpower Inc., 5301 N. Ironwood Rd., Milwaukee, WI 53217, USA
Tel: 414 961 1000
www.us.manpower.com

© 2007, Manpower Inc. All rights reserved.