MANPOWER INC.

EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK SURVEY FIRST QUARTER 2001

THE NATIONAL OUTLOOK 1986-2001
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES % increase % no change % decrease % don’t know net % +/net % seasonally +/adjusted

MINING CONSTRUCTION MFG.–DURABLE GOODS MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE

22 24 29 27 27 27 23

60 58 56 59 59 53 65 70 60 65 58

12 14 10 9 8 16 6 3 7 6 10

6 4 5 5 6 4 6 5 5 5 5

10 10 19 18 19 11 17 19 21 18 17

15 27 24 22 22 30 18 22 26 22 25

EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 22 SERVICES PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION ALL INDUSTRIES 28 24 27

UNITED STATES

REGIONAL, SEASONAL PATTERNS LEAD TO RECORD HIRING NEEDS
While demand for new employees remains unfulfilled, strong regional patterns emerge from company hiring plans for the first quarter. Although all geographic areas matched or exceeded previous seasonal records, regional and industry patterns heavily influenced the outlook at the outset of the coming year. Manufacturing – both Durable and Non-Durable – indicate hiring that will fall slightly below levels of the year-ago quarter and some sectors that are historically sluggish at this time reflect changes in staffing strategies. Construction, for example, after only three positive wintertime outlooks from 1977-94, now anticipates such a position for the fifth time since then. Similarly, Wholesale & Retail Trades, normally reducing bloated holiday workforces, now undertake staffing on a year-around basis and expectations are positive for the seventh consecutive year at the post-holiday period. A gradual transformation to 12-month hiring is also apparent in the Education field, which customarily concentrated recruiting at the year-end quarter. The sector is presently among the nation’s leading industries.

THE OUTLOOK BY INDUSTRY 1986-2001
MINING
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

CONSTRUCTION

MANUFACTURING - DURABLE GOODS
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30

MANUFACTURING - NON-DURABLE GOODS

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

TRANSPORTATION & PUBLIC UTILITIES
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30

WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

FINANCE, INSURANCE & REAL ESTATE
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30

EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

SERVICES
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

THE NORTHEAST OUTLOOK 1986-2001
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES % increase % no change % decrease % don’t know net % +/net % seasonally +/adjusted

NORTHEAST
50 59 53 57 62 53 61 66 59 65 58 0 16 11 11 7 13 8 4 7 8 10 17 5 6 6 5 4 7 3 7 4 5 33 4 19 15 19 17 16 23 20 15 17 33 21 21 19 23 33 15 26 27 18 25

MINING CONSTRUCTION MFG.–DURABLE GOODS MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE

33 20 30 26 26 30 24

EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 27 SERVICES PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION ALL INDUSTRIES 27 23 27

CONNECTICUT MAINE MASSACHUSETTS NEW HAMPSHIRE NEW JERSEY NEW YORK PENNSYLVANIA RHODE ISLAND VERMONT

The record levels of demand expressed in the third and fourth quarters of 2000 now carries over to the highest first quarter total in the survey history. The present net hiring strength is considerably beyond any previous result for a like period. Both Education and Services employers report plans that exceed the year-earlier survey by more than double the net hiring strength. Expectations in the Transportation & Public Utilities field are substantially greater than any other similar quarter. Wholesale & Retail Trades, after very aggressive recruiting efforts throughout 2000 now shun the traditional post-holiday layoff policy. The net hiring strength is double that of the record seen one year ago. Construction firms, normally facing winter slowdowns, instead seem to be spreading their hiring activity more evenly during the year. Present intentions are greater than seasonally expected.

THE MIDWEST OUTLOOK 1986-2001
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES % increase % no change % decrease % don’t know net % +/net % seasonally +/adjusted

MIDWEST
71 61 60 59 64 57 73 74 62 74 61 29 18 11 8 7 19 4 2 6 5 11 0 2 4 4 5 3 3 4 4 2 4 -29 1 14 21 17 2 16 18 22 14 13 -16 29 20 24 19 27 15 22 26 19 23

MINING CONSTRUCTION MFG.–DURABLE GOODS MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE

0 19 25 29 24 21 20

EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 20 SERVICES PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION ALL INDUSTRIES 28 19 24

ILLINOIS INDIANA IOWA KANSAS MICHIGAN MINNESOTA MISSOURI NEBRASKA NORTH DAKOTA OHIO SOUTH DAKOTA WISCONSIN

Staffing in the Midwest leaped to a new order of magnitude in mid-1997 and variations since then have been primarily seasonal in character in this region where weather conditions play havoc with business operations in many industries. Thus, industries such as Construction, which appears weak, is actually much stronger than seasonally anticipated. Expectations are now positive in this quarter for the first time in the survey’s 25-year history. Nearly the same is true of Wholesale & Retail Trades, where traditional pruning of massive numbers of holiday help no longer dominates the staffing picture. A small positive was recorded only in 1996. Among Durable Goods Manufacturers, however, a curtailment beyond seasonal expectations to the lowest first quarter level since 1993 is clearly discernable. Education employers, who until the mid-1990s customarily limited almost all recruiting to year-end, now are among the regional leaders. Services firms, victims of perhaps the greatest personnel shortage over an extended period, express the most active intentions.

THE SOUTHERN OUTLOOK 1986-2001
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES % increase % no change % decrease % don’t know net % +/net % seasonally +/adjusted

SOUTH
63 59 54 61 59 54 67 71 62 64 59 11 7 8 8 10 13 6 4 5 5 8 2 4 6 4 6 4 6 6 5 5 5 13 23 24 19 15 16 15 15 23 21 20 19 32 29 22 18 31 17 17 26 23 26

MINING CONSTRUCTION MFG.–DURABLE GOODS MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE

24 30 32 27 25 29 21

EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 19 SERVICES PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION ALL INDUSTRIES 28 26 28

ALABAMA ARKANSAS DELAWARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA FLORIDA GEORGIA KENTUCKY LOUISIANA

MARYLAND MISSISSIPPI NORTH CAROLINA OKLAHOMA SOUTH CAROLINA TENNESSEE TEXAS VIRGINIA WEST VIRGINIA

Removing seasonal trends, staffing in the South has very gradually increased from mid-1997 to early 2000 and reached a new plateau three quarters ago, capped now by its highest first quarter in history. Durable Goods Manufacturing is the first quarter area leader for the sixth time in eight years. In no other region is the Construction industry as optimistic. The net hiring strength is substantially greater than in any like period. Unlike the forecast in most other areas, Transportation & Public Utilities lags below the like periods of recent years. Services firms continue the substantial seasonal levels of the past two quarters and Wholesale & Retail Trades continues to express a critical need for additional personnel. Notable in the South is the position of Education employers. Net hiring strength conforms more closely to seasonal patterns, thus avoiding the expression of the serious shortage that exists in other parts of the country.

THE WESTERN OUTLOOK 1986-2001
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES % increase % no change % decrease % don’t know net % +/net % seasonally +/adjusted

WEST
50 53 48 54 47 46 57 62 52 57 52 11 20 8 9 10 19 6 4 9 6 11 17 4 7 8 8 6 8 6 9 9 7 11 3 29 20 25 10 23 24 21 22 19 14 16 32 24 29 25 27 27 25 29 27

MINING CONSTRUCTION MFG.–DURABLE GOODS MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE

22 23 37 29 35 29 29

EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 28 SERVICES PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION ALL INDUSTRIES 30 28 30

ALASKA ARIZONA CALIFORNIA COLORADO HAWAII IDAHO MONTANA NEVADA NEW MEXICO OREGON UTAH WASHINGTON WYOMING

While the outlook in the West has never been brighter at this season, the region nonetheless gives up its national leadership position to the South as the new year begins. On a deseasonalized basis, results from mid-1999 through early 2000 were unchanged, but the higher level is now sustained on a rather steady plateau for a fourth consecutive quarter. Almost every sector has been expressing increasing worker shortages over the past 2-3 years, although the decline in Construction hiring from that of the past two first quarters is noteworthy and the plans of Services firms are marginally below those of one year ago. Uniquely among regions in the present survey, Finance, Insurance & Real Estate firms maintain a high level forecast that existed throughout 2000, while requirements of Public Administration units declined beyond seasonal expectations three months ago. These agencies now anticipate a greater need than in any first quarter in two decades.

WORLD HEADQUARTERS 5301 North Ironwood Road Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53217 www.manpower.com

The quarterly Employment Outlook Survey has been conducted as a public service of Manpower Inc. for 25 years. The survey was designed and is administered by Manpower’s International Research Department, utilizing a statistically representative sample of 16,000 public and private employers from among ten industrial sectors in 489 U.S. markets. The first quarter 2001 survey is a measurement of employment plans for the permanent workforce. The survey results reflect the intentions of the sample employers interviewed. Some of these intentions may change unexpectedly upon the conclusion of this survey.

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