Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2001 | Midwestern United States | Northeastern United States

MANPOWER INC.

EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK SURVEY SECOND QUARTER 2001

THE NATIONAL OUTLOOK 1986-2001
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES % increase % no change % decrease % don’t know net % +/net % seasonally +/adjusted

MINING CONSTRUCTION MFG.–DURABLE GOODS MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE

28 35 30 26 24 28 23

68 54 53 60 64 57 64 72 59 67 59

3 7 12 8 7 10 7 5 5 3 8

1 4 5 6 5 5 6 3 6 4 5

25 28 18 18 17 18 16 15 25 23 20

24 18 14 17 16 17 15 18 21 18 18

EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 20 SERVICES PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION ALL INDUSTRIES 30 26 28

UNITED STATES

LONG-AWAITED HIRING SLOWDOWN LIES AHEAD
After more than three years of remarkably consistent demand for new workers, results indicate the long-awaited decline in new hiring activity among employers throughout the nation appears ahead in the second quarter. The present outlook is below like periods of the past three years and extends beyond seasonal expectations. All industries and regions shared in the decline, but Durable Goods Manufacturing and Wholesale & Retail Trades were hardest hit. Less deterioration is apparent in the fields of Education and Public Administration where budgets are usually quite firm and profit production is not a requirement as is the case in the private sector. While the retraction is clear, it represents only the emersion of a trend. The erosion of activity is occurring from very high historical levels and substantial staffing remains to be done.

THE OUTLOOK BY INDUSTRY 1986-2001
MINING
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

CONSTRUCTION

MANUFACTURING - DURABLE GOODS
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30

MANUFACTURING - NON-DURABLE GOODS

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

TRANSPORTATION & PUBLIC UTILITIES
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30

WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

FINANCE, INSURANCE & REAL ESTATE
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30

EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

SERVICES
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

THE NORTHEAST OUTLOOK 1986-2001
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES % increase % no change % decrease % don’t know net % +/net % seasonally +/adjusted

NORTHEAST
80 58 57 61 65 55 58 73 59 74 61 0 8 11 8 12 11 7 5 5 3 8 0 4 6 7 6 7 9 5 7 4 6 20 22 15 16 5 16 19 12 24 16 17 25 17 12 14 3 16 17 13 19 14 14

MINING CONSTRUCTION MFG.–DURABLE GOODS MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE

20 30 26 24 17 27 26

EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 17 SERVICES PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION ALL INDUSTRIES 29 19 25

CONNECTICUT MAINE MASSACHUSETTS NEW HAMPSHIRE NEW JERSEY NEW YORK PENNSYLVANIA RHODE ISLAND VERMONT

After a buoyant year 2000 that continued at the start of 2001, companies of the Northeast now indicate a sluggish outlook. Survey results foretell that the bold increase normally found in the springtime season will not materialize this year as net hiring strength merely matches that of three months ago. Only Construction and Public Administration surpass expectations of the year-ago quarter. Education employers, following very strong demand in the past two quarters, remain at the level of last year. The Services field alone appears optimistic, although its total benefits from seasonal increases. Government units will add staff at a slight increase from the levels of the past year and one-half. Among Durable Goods Manufacturers, the current net hiring strength is below that of the first quarter for the first time in the survey’s 25-year history.

THE MIDWEST OUTLOOK 1986-2001
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES % increase % no change % decrease % don’t know net % +/net % seasonally +/adjusted

MIDWEST
71 50 54 59 64 59 66 74 59 63 59 0 6 13 9 5 10 8 8 6 4 9 0 1 4 4 4 3 3 1 4 1 3 29 37 16 19 22 18 15 9 25 28 20 26 14 11 19 20 14 15 14 22 18 16

MINING CONSTRUCTION MFG.–DURABLE GOODS MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE

29 43 29 28 27 28 23

EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 17 SERVICES PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION ALL INDUSTRIES 31 32 29

ILLINOIS INDIANA IOWA KANSAS MICHIGAN MINNESOTA MISSOURI NEBRASKA NORTH DAKOTA OHIO SOUTH DAKOTA WISCONSIN

The second quarter is always highlighted by substantial hiring activity in the Construction industry and this year is no exception. Typical of the present Midwest situation, however, fewer of these firms will require more workers than in any like quarter in the past eight years. Plans among Durable Goods Manufacturers are sharply reduced from the year-earlier period. Only Transportation & Public Utilities and Public Administration report intentions for staff additions at a slightly greater pace than one year ago. Transportation & Public Utilities firms, often aggressive at this season, continue to maintain the optimism of the past three years. Among Services employers, some slippage is evident, but a serious need for people still exists only marginally below recent deseasonalized levels. Job opportunities in the Education field, rarely great at this season, will approximate those of second quarters of the past four years.

THE SOUTHERN OUTLOOK 1986-2001
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES % increase % no change % decrease % don’t know net % +/net % seasonally +/adjusted

SOUTH
63 57 55 65 67 58 70 76 59 69 62 4 6 9 7 5 8 5 5 5 4 6 0 6 5 5 5 4 5 3 5 4 5 29 25 22 16 18 22 15 11 26 19 21 27 18 18 14 17 22 14 14 22 17 19

MINING CONSTRUCTION MFG.–DURABLE GOODS MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE

33 31 31 23 23 30 20

EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 16 SERVICES PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION ALL INDUSTRIES 31 23 27

ALABAMA ARKANSAS DELAWARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA FLORIDA GEORGIA KENTUCKY LOUISIANA

MARYLAND MISSISSIPPI NORTH CAROLINA OKLAHOMA SOUTH CAROLINA TENNESSEE TEXAS VIRGINIA WEST VIRGINIA

Deterioration of the regional total in the South is less pronounced than in other areas, but no individual industry surpasses the second quarter of last year. Sectors normally active at this season are now more reserved. Services firms are the most optimistic, moving the Construction industry from its customary springtime leadership position for only the second time in nine years. Prospects in Durable Goods Manufacturing have not been lower since 1993. Transportation & Public Utilities companies continue at the level of a year ago. Erosion of activity from the 2000 period is slightest among Finance, Insurance & Real Estate companies and Services firms. Removing the variation due to seasonal trends, the South three months ago expressed its strongest hiring intentions of any quarter since 1978. But the momentum that slowly built over the previous five years to the peak of last quarter has diminished to a level not seen since mid-1997.

THE WESTERN OUTLOOK 1986-2001
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES % increase % no change % decrease % don’t know net % +/net % seasonally +/adjusted

WEST
84 50 46 51 52 51 59 59 51 58 53 0 8 12 10 11 13 7 1 8 2 9 8 6 8 8 8 8 7 7 11 7 8 8 28 22 21 18 15 20 32 22 31 21 10 24 19 20 20 16 18 31 20 27 19

MINING CONSTRUCTION MFG.–DURABLE GOODS MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE

8 36 34 31 29 28 27

EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 33 SERVICES PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION ALL INDUSTRIES 30 33 30

ALASKA ARIZONA CALIFORNIA COLORADO HAWAII IDAHO MONTANA NEVADA NEW MEXICO OREGON UTAH WASHINGTON WYOMING

The nation’s leading region during six consecutive quarters lost its leadership position three months ago and now regains a portion of the top position albeit at a level reduced by a greater amount than the other areas. Plans in Construction, Education and Public Administration surpass by a considerable margin those of other industries. The position of the latter two are more aggressive than their counterparts in other parts of the country. Wholesale & Retail Trades, after nearly five unbroken years of sharply elevated recruiting activity, now faces a hiring slowdown not seen since mid-1996. Expectations among Non-Durable Goods Manufacturers remain close to those of the past two quarters, while Durable Goods firms anticipate less energetic recruiting than in any quarter of the past two years.

WORLD HEADQUARTERS 5301 North Ironwood Road Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53217 www.us.manpower.com

The quarterly Employment Outlook Survey has been conducted as a public service of Manpower Inc. for 25 years. The survey was designed and is administered by Manpower’s Market Research and Analysis Department, utilizing a statistically representative sample of nearly 16,000 public and private employers from among ten industrial sectors in 488 U.S. markets. The second quarter 2001 survey is a measurement of employment plans for the permanent workforce. The survey results reflect the intentions of the sample employers interviewed. Some of these intentions may change unexpectedly upon the conclusion of this survey.

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