Y2-HL WORKSHEET-PROBABILITY

1. M99-P1 A bag contains 2 red marbles, 3 blue marbles and 4 green marbles. A marbles is chosen at random from the bag and is not replaced. A second marbles is chosen. Find the probability of choosing one green marbles and one blue marble in any order. 2. M99-P1 In a bilingual school there is a class of 21 pupils. In this class, 15 of the pupils speak Spanish as their first language and 12 of these 15 pupils are Argentine. The other 6 pupils in the class speak English as their first language and 3 of these 6 pupils are Argentine. A pupil is selected at random from the class and is found to be Argentine. Find the probability that the pupil speaks Spanish as the 1st language.

1

3. M99-P1
A biased die with four faces is used in a game. A player pays 10 counters to roll the die. The table below shows the possible scores on the die, the probability of each score and the number of counters the player receives in return for each score. Score Probability No of counters players recive 1 2 3 4

1 2
4

1 5
5

1 5
15

1 10
n

Find the value of n in order for the player to get an expected return of 9 counters per roll. 4. M99-P2- Bayes Theorem as well A new blood test has been shown to be effective in the early detection of a disease. The probability that the blood test correctly identifies someone with this disease is 0.99, and the probability that the blood test correctly identifies someone without that disease is 0.95. The incidence of this disease in the general population is 0.0001. A doctor administered the blood test to a patient and the test result indicated that this patient had the disease. What is the probability that the patient has the disease?

5.M99-P2-Binomial distribution The quality control department of a company making computer chips knows that 2% of the chips are defective. Use the normal approximation to the binomial probability distribution, with a continuity correction, to find the probability that, in a batch containing 1000 chips, between 20 and 30 chips (inclusive) are defective.

Y2-HL WORKSHEET-PROBABILITY

2
(Total 7 marks)

6. M99-P2 Poisson Thm A supplier of copper wire looks for flaws before despatching it to customers. It is known that the number of flaws follow a Poisson probability distribution with a mean of 2.3 flaws per metre. (a) (b) Determine the probability that there are exactly 2 flaws in 1 metre of the wire.
(3)

Determine the probability that there is at least one flaw in 2 metres of the wire.
(3) (Total 6 marks)

7. N99-P1 The local Football Association consists of ten teams. Team A has a 40 % chance of winning any game against a higher-ranked team, and a 75 % chance of winning any game against a lowerranked team. If A is currently in fourth position, find the probability that A wins its next game. 8. M00-P1 In a game a player rolls a biased tetrahedral (four-faced) die. The probability of each possible score is shown below. Score Probability 1 2 3 4 x

1 5

2 5

1 10

Find the probability of a total score of six after two rolls. 9. M00-P1 The probability distribution of a discrete random variable X is given by P(X = x) = k  2  , for x = 0,1, 2, ......   3 Find the value of k.
x

10.N00-P1

Y2-HL WORKSHEET-PROBABILITY
The box-and-whisker plots shown represent the heights of female students and the heights of male students at a certain school. F e m a le s

3

M a le s 150 (a) (b) 160 170 180 190 200 210 H e ig h t (c m )

What percentage of female students are shorter than any male students? What percentage of male students are shorter than some female students?

(c)

From the diagram, estimate the mean height of the male students.

11.N00 -P1
Given that events A and B are independent with P(A ∩ B) = 0.3 and P(A ∩ B′ ) = 0.3, find P(A ∪ B). 12.N00 -P2-Binomial Distribution A satellite relies on solar cells for its power and will operate provided that at least one of the cells is working. Cells fail independently of each other, and the probability that an individual cell fails within one year is 0.8. (a) (b) For a satellite with ten solar cells, find the probability that all ten cells fail within one year.
(2)

For a satellite with ten solar cells, find the probability that the satellite is still operating at the end of one year.
(2)

(c)

For a satellite with n solar cells, write down the probability that the satellite is still operating at the end of one year. Hence, find the smallest number of solar cells required so that the probability of the satellite still operating at the end of one year is at least 0.95.
(5) (Total 9 marks)

13 M00 -P1

Y2-HL WORKSHEET-PROBABILITY
A girl walks to school every day. If it is not raining, the probability that she is late is raining, the probability that she is late is

4
1 . If it is 5

2 . The probability that it rains on a particular day is 3

1 . 4
On one particular day the girl is late. Find the probability that it was raining on that day. 14.M 00 -P1 In a school,

1 of the students travel to school by bus. Five students are chosen at random. Find 3

the probability that exactly 3 of them travel to school by bus. 15. M01-P1 Given that P( X ) =
2 1 , P(Y X ) = P(Y X ′) = , , find 3 4

(a)
(b)

P(Y′); P(X′ ∪ Y′).

16.M01-P1 X is a binomial random variable, where the number of trials is 5 and the probability of success of each trial is p. Find the values of p if P(X = 4) = 0.12. 17. M01-P2 In a game, the probability of a player scoring with a shot is

1 . Let X be the number of shots the 4 player takes to score, including the scoring shot. (You can assume that each shot is independent of the others.)
(a) (b) (c) Find P(X = 3).
(2)

Find the probability that the player will have at least three misses before scoring twice.
(6)

Prove that the expected value of X is 4. (You may use the result (1 – x) = 1 + 2x + 3x + 4x ......)
(5) (Total 13 marks)
–2 2 3

Y2-HL WORKSHEET-PROBABILITY
18.N01-P1 A coin is biased so that when it is tossed the probability of obtaining heads is tossed 1800 times. Let X be the number of heads obtained. Find (a) (b) the mean of X; the standard deviation of X.

5

2 . The coin is 3

19.N01-P1 The probability that a man leaves his umbrella in any shop he visits is

1 . After visiting two shops 3 in succession, he finds he has left his umbrella in one of them. What is the probability that he left

his umbrella in the second shop? 20. N01-P2 Two women, Ann and Bridget, play a game in which they take it in turns to throw an unbiased six-sided die. The first woman to throw a '6' wins the game. Ann is the first to throw. (a) Find the probability that (i) (ii) (iii) Bridget wins on her first throw; Ann wins on her second throw; Ann wins on her n throw.
(6)
th

(b)

1 25 p. Let p be the probability that Ann wins the game. Show that p = + 6 36
(4)

(c) (d)

Find the probability that Bridget wins the game.
(2)

Suppose that the game is played six times. Find the probability that Ann wins more games than Bridget.
(5) (Total 17 marks)

21.M02-P1

Y2-HL WORKSHEET-PROBABILITY

6

The probability that it rains during a summer’s day in a certain town is 0.2. In this town, the probability that the daily maximum temperature exceeds 25 °C is 0.3 when it rains and 0.6 when it does not rain. Given that the maximum daily temperature exceeded 25 °C on a particular summer’s day, find the probability that it rained on that day. 22. M03-P1 When a boy plays a game at a fair, the probability that he wins a prize is 0.25. He plays the game 10 times. Let X denote the total number of prizes that he wins. Assuming that the games are independent, find (a) 23. N03-P1 On a television channel the news is shown at the same time each day. The probability that Alice watches the news on a given day is 0.4. Calculate the probability that on five consecutive days, she watches the news on at most three days. 24. M04-P1 Robert travels to work by train every weekday from Monday to Friday. The probability that he catches the 08.00 train on Monday is 0.66. The probability that he catches the 08.00 train on any other weekday is 0.75. A weekday is chosen at random. (a) Find the probability that he catches the train on that day. E(X) (b) P (X ≤ 2).

(b)

Given that he catches the 08.00 train on that day, find the probability that the chosen day is Monday.

25.M04-P2
Jack and Jill play a game, by throwing a die in turn. If the die shows a 1, 2, 3 or 4, the player who threw the die wins the game. If the die shows a 5 or 6, the other player has the next throw. Jack plays first and the game continues until there is a winner. (a) (b) (c) Write down the probability that Jack wins on his first throw.
(1)

Calculate the probability that Jill wins on her first throw.
(2)

Calculate the probability that Jack wins the game. (3)
(Total 6 marks)

Y2-HL WORKSHEET-PROBABILITY 26. M05-P2
Bag A contains 2 red and 3 green balls. (a) Two balls are chosen at random from the bag without replacement. Find the probability that 2 red balls are chosen.

7

(2)

Bag B contains 4 red and n green balls. (b) Two balls are chosen without replacement from this bag. If the probability that two red 2 balls are chosen is , show that n = 6. 15
(4)

A standard die with six faces is rolled. If a 1 or 6 is obtained, two balls are chosen from bag A, otherwise two balls are chosen from bag B. (c) (d) Calculate the probability that two red balls are chosen.
(4)

Given that two red balls are chosen, find the probability that a 1 or a 6 was obtained on the die.
(3) (Total 13 marks)

27. M05-P1 A team of five students is to be chosen at random to take part in a debate. The team is to be chosen from a group of eight medical students and three law students. Find the probability that (a) only medical students are chosen; (b) all three law students are chosen.

28. M05-P1

6 Given that (A ∪ B)′ = ∅, P(A′|B) = 1 and P(A) = , find P(B). 3 7

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