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4 0 1: introd

countrie s wi thi n i t, i nclu.di ng traditional as well as modern ene rgy

carri ers. The data we can now p rovi de a re path. - bre aki n g i n tw o
re gards. Fi rst, the y pro -vi de much more rel iabl e estimate s than
previousl y exi sted on prefossi l f u e l e r a e n e rg y c o n s u n i p t i o n ,
m a k i n g m u c h g re a t e r u s e o f c o n t e m p o r a r y s o u rc e s t h a n p i o n e e r i n g
w o r k . ' S e c o n d , w e h a v e e s t a b l i s h e d a c o n s i s t e n t m e t h o do l o g y fo r
q u a n ti fy i n g th e e co no m i c c on s u m p ti on of e ne rg y t ha t c an b e u s e d
f o r c ro s s - c o u n t r y c o m p a r i s o n a n d a g g re g a t i o n o f o u r d a t a s e t s . '
The se data, focusi ng on ene rgy as an input i nto the economy, can
the n be c o m b i n e d w i t h a v a i l a b l e l o n g t i m e - se r i e s o f G D P , c a p i t a l
s t o c k s , a n d l a b o r to sh e d n e w l i g ht o n w ha t w e ch a ra c te ri z e a s
" th re e i n d us t ri al re vo l u t i o n s" that have occurred ove r the past two
ce nturi es, and the ir vari ed i mpact on energy use in society.
What dc..) these numbers show? We can see in fi gure 1 .1 that the
path of t h e m o d e rn e c o n o m y h a s n o t b e e n a s t r a i g h t f o r w a rd s t o r y
o f a c o n s t a n t rate of increase in the use of energy. Instead, the overall
trajectory of energy use within Europe follows a logistic S-shaped
curve. It is possible to discern three phase s. The fi rst phase, .15001800, was marked by li ttle growth in overall energy consumption, and
even slightly fallingper capita energy con sumption in the sixteenth
and the eighteenth centuries. The second phase, 1800-1970, is the
I ndustrial Age , which saw expl osive expansi on in e nergy u. se, exce pt
for duri ng the World Wars and inte rwar pe ri od. Howe ver, i n dustriali zation took place at di ff e rent moments and at di ff e rent
spee ds in the countries of Europe, and the curve in fi gure 1.1, which
aggregates the European experience as a 'whole, makes this change
appear smoother than i t m i g h t se e m f ro m a n a t i o n a l o r re g i o n a l
p e r s p e c t i v e . T h e t h i rd p e r i o d , 1970-2008, is exceptional in. that it
was marked by stabilization in energy consumpti on pe r capi ta. It
see ms that after around 1970, economi c grow th has no longer been
accompanied by the same level of increase in energy use. Ri se s i n
consumpti on have been mode st, and in per capita te rms, change d
little. At the end of the twentieth century, we seem to have entered a
new phase in the relationship between energy and economic growth.
The main thing we set out to explain in this hook is why the shape
of this curve looks the way it does.
In so doing, we need to investigate the relation between energy and
eco-.. n o mi c g row t h. T hi s re l a ti o n i s i nfl u e n ce d by th e ki n d s o f
e ne rg y ca rr i e rs involved in the aggregate energy consumption at any
point in time. Industrialization has not been just one change in the
energy regime, but many: the transition to the fi rst fossi l fuel, coal ,
has been foll owe d by the adoption of oil and natural gas, and the
diff usion of electricity. This has aff ected energy c o n s u m p t i o n a s w e l l
a s e c o n o m i c g ro w t h . Fo r i n s t a n c e , a s t h e m a i n s h i ft
Martin,1988; Schurr and Netschert, 1978, for the United States; Smil, .1994 ; Fouquef,
2008.
7

Etemad, 1991; Reddy, and Goldemberg. 1990.