NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll

Embargoed for release Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 6:00AM
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll tracks voter preferences and attitudes on a weekly basis throughout
the 2016 election cycle. Results are released every Tuesday at 6:00AM and are among registered voters.
Results for the week of July 11, 2016 through July 17, 2016 are among a national sample of 9,436 registered voters (+/- 1.4%), 2,595
registered Republican voters (+/-2.6%) and 3,115 registered Democratic voters (+/-2.4%). Complete error estimates can be found in
the methodology section below.

TOPLINE RESULTS
Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?

7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16 – 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28-1/3

Foreign
Policy
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
4
4
4
4
5
5
4
5
5
4
5
5
6

The
environment
7
8
8
8
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
9
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
8
8
8
8

Terrorism
23
22
21
21
23
12
12
13
13
12
12
14
14
16
17
19
18
12
13
13
14
16
16
15
17
19
21
23
23

Immigration
8
8
9
9
7
7
7
7
6
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
8
8
8

Health
care
12
13
13
15
14
17
17
15
16
16
15
16
15
15
14
15
13
15
16
16
16
15
14
16
13
15
13
13
14

Jobs and the
Economy
29
29
31
28
29
37
35
36
36
35
36
33
32
32
31
32
32
36
35
35
34
33
34
32
32
33
29
28
27

Education
8
9
8
9
9
10
11
10
12
11
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
11
10
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
8
9

Other
8
7
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
5
6
5
5
5
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
5

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16 – 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2—5/8
4/25—5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Strongly approve
27
27
28
30
30
29
27
27
27
28
28
27
26
28
27
28
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
27
25
26
26
23
23

Somewhat approve
22
22
22
22
21
22
24
23
23
23
23
24
24
24
23
24
24
24
23
23
23
22
24
23
22
24
22
22
25

Somewhat disapprove
12
12
11
12
12
12
12
12
13
13
12
13
13
12
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
14
12
12
12

In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16—5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 - 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14

Republican
29
27
28
28
28
28
29
28
29
28
32
28
28
29
30
29
30
30
31
32
31
31
30

Democrat
33
33
34
35
34
35
35
33
34
35
35
36
35
34
34
35
33
36
35
36
35
35
35

Independent
36
38
37
36
36
36
36
37
35
35
31
35
36
35
35
35
36
32
33
31
33
33
33

No answer
1
2
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2

Strongly disapprove
38
38
38
35
37
36
37
37
36
35
36
36
37
37
37
35
35
35
36
37
37
39
38
38
40
36
40
42
40

No answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

30
31
28
31
33
30

35
34
34
34
32
34

33
33
36
33
34
34

2
2
1
2
2
2

As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? [AMONG IND OR DON’T KNOW FOR
PARTY]
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16 – 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4 – 4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Republican
Party
37
32
33
32
32
33
33
32
31
33
32
32
35
33
33
31
31
31
31
32
34
38
34
35
34
33
36
36
37

Democratic
Party
26
26
26
29
28
28
26
28
29
28
32
27
27
30
28
29
28
28
27
29
28
28
28
30
26
27
26
26
24

Neither
34
39
37
36
36
36
37
37
37
36
35
38
35
34
35
38
37
39
41
36
36
33
35
33
37
39
37
36
37

No answer
3
4
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
1
3
3
3
4
2
4
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
1
1

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote?

7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16– 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8

Hillary Clinton,
the Democrat
46
47
48
49
48
49
48
47
47
48
49

Donald Trump,
the Republican
45
44
43
41
42
42
44
45
43
45
44

No
answer
9
10
9
10
10
9
9
8
9
7
7

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates for whom would you vote?

7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
6/2—6/5

Donald
Trump, the
Republican
40
38
38
36
38
38
40

Hillary
Clinton, the
Democrat
39
40
41
42
42
42
39

Gary
Johnson,
the
Libertarian
10
11
9
9
9
9
9

Jill Stein,
the
Green
Party
5
6
5
5
5
5
4

No
answer
7
6
6
7
7
6
8

Do you think Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy?
7/11—7/17

Yes
28

No
69

No answer
3

How serious a problem do you think racial discrimination against blacks is in this country?

7/11—7/17
7/8—7/10

Extremely
serious
23
27

Very serious
25
25

Somewhat
serious
26
25

Not so serious
18
16

Not serious at
all
7
6

No answer
1
1

How confident are you in Hillary Clinton’s ability to make the right decisions when it comes to race relations in this country?

7/11—7/17
7/8—7/10

Extremely
confident
9
11

Very
confident
17
17

Somewhat
confident
21
19

Not so
confident
16
16

Not confident
at all
35
35

No answer
2
1

How confident are you in Donald Trump’s ability to make the right decisions when it comes to race relations in this country?

7/11—7/17
7/8—7/10

Extremely
confident
8
7

Very
confident
13
12

Somewhat
confident
18
20

Not so
confident
15
14

Not confident
at all
45
46

No answer
1
2

How confident are you in Barack Obama’s ability to make the right decisions when it comes to race relations in this country?

7/11—7/17
7/8—7/10

Extremely
confident
16
18

Very
confident
20
19

Somewhat
confident
16
16

Not so
confident
13
11

Not confident
at all
34
35

No answer
1
1

In general, do you think the police in most communities are…

7/11—7/17
7/8—7/10

More likely to use deadly
force against a black
person
43
46

More likely to use
deadly force against
a white person
2
2

Race doesn’t affect use of
deadly force
53
50

No answer
2
2

Do you approve or disapprove of the Black Lives Matter movement?

7/11—7/17
7/8—7/10

Strongly
approve
20
21

Somewhat
approve
21
24

Somewhat
disapprove
14
15

Strongly disapprove
31
27

Don’t know
enough to say
12
13

No answer
1
1

Do you think the Republican Party…

7/11—7/17
6/13—6/19
5/23—5/29

Is united
now
8
7
9

Is divided now
but will unite
by November
31
27
34

Will still be
divided in
November
59
61
55

No
answer
3
5
3

Will still be
divided in
November
34
33
38

No
answer
3
6
3

Do you think the Democratic Party…

7/11—7/17
6/13—6/19
5/23—5/29

Is united
now
34
21
16

Is divided now
but will unite
by November
29
40
43

Does Bernie Sanders’ endorsement of Hillary Clinton make you more likely to vote for her, less likely or does it not make any
difference?

7/11—7/17

More likely
12

Less likely
11

Makes no
difference
75

No answer
2

METHODOLOGY
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking data for the week of July 11, 2016 through July 17, 2016 was conducted online among a
national sample of 9,436 adults aged 18 and over who say they are registered to vote. Respondents for this survey were selected from the nearly
three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this week has been weighted for age, race, sex, education,
region, and voter registration status using the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Current Population Survey to reflect the demographic
composition of the United States. An additional smoothing parameter for ideology based on previous Election Tracking interviews is included. The
smoothing parameter was derived from aggregated data on ideology by region collected from previous weeks (May 1-June 26) of the Weekly
Election Tracking poll.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error
can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and
measurement error.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate.
The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 1.4 percentage point for registered voters.
To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence
intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in
much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.
Group
Total RVs

Unweighted N
9436

Plus or minus
1.4

Republican RVs
Democrat RVs

2595
3115

2.6
2.4

Male
Female

4768
4668

1.8
2.0

18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+

469
969
1378
2121
2541
1958

5.8
4.1
3.6
2.9
2.5
3.0

White
Black
Hispanic
Other

7186
729
761
760

1.6
5.1
4.7
5.1