U.N.

SecurityCouncilSeat:ChinaOutsmartsIndia
SreeramChaulia,IndoAsianNewsService,NewDelhi,India,May30,2008
ThesymphonyofSouthSouthcooperationattherecentconclaveofforeignministersofBRIC(Brazil,Russia,India,and
China)atYekaterinburg,Russia,wasjarredbyChina'srefusaltoendorseIndia'sbidforapermanentseatintheUnited
NationsSecurityCouncil.Inthejointcommuniquissuedattheendofthemeeting,ChinesedelegatesscotchedRussian
proposalsofsupportingIndia'scauseofenteringtheeliteleagueattheCouncil.
TherearetwowaysofinterpretingthelatestChineseattempttocutIndiadowntosizeandreminditofthehurdlesfacing
itsglobalambitions.OnereactionisofdismaythatChinawentbackonapriorcommitmenttorecommendIndiafora
permanentseatattheSecurityCouncil.InNovember2006,IndianForeignMinisterPranabMukherjeeclaimedthat
ChinesePresidentHuJintaohad"reiterated"thatBeijingwasinfavorofNewDelhi'sinclusionasapermanentmemberof
theCouncil.Thus,theYekaterinburgdramacouldbeseenasavoltefaceactofbacktrackingbyChina.
Thesecond,morerealistic,readingofthesituationisthatIndianofficialshavebeenapplyingaglossyspintothe
chameleonicChinesepositionsofthepast,whichneverovertlypledgedapprovalofapermanentSecurityCouncilseatfor
NewDelhi.ItisworthrecallingthatChinesePremierWenJiabao's2005visittoIndiadidnotyieldanydefinitivecomment
thatChinawouldbehappytosecondIndia'sgoalofbaggingapermanentseatattheCouncil.
Likewise,despitetheassertionofIndianForeignSecretaryShivshankarMenonthatPresidentHuhad"assured"Indiaona
bilateralvisitin2006thatChina"wouldnotbeanobstacle"toNewDelhi'spushforpermanentmembershipoftheSecurity
Council,noconcreteguaranteewasgiveninwritingattheJointDeclaration.
Thus,thefirmrefusalofChinatosignacommuniquatYekaterinburgthatunambiguouslychampionedapermanentseat
forIndiaattheSecurityCouncilisactuallyconsistentwithBeijing'shideandseekstrategyontheissue.MorethanChina
deludingIndiabyrescindingonitspastpromises,itappearstobeacaseofIndiaallowingitselftobedeludedbybuilding
makebelievecastles.
ThelastfewyearshavewitnessednumeroussummitsandgovernmentalexchangesbetweenIndiaandChina.Chinais
nowIndia'slargesttradingpartner,withtheannualvolumeoftradestandingat$40billionandexpectedtotouch$60
billionby2010.Thepoliticalsideoftherelationshiphasalsoimproved,withusageofphraseslike"strategicpartnership"
bybothsides.India'scontainmentoftheTibetanupsurgeinMarch2008wasapplaudedbyChinawithappreciativepats.
ThefactthatChinaevenacceptedreliefaidfromIndiaforrehabilitatingearthquakevictimsinSichuanearlierthismonth
suggeststhatAsia'sgiantsaregettingalong,ifnotcavortingtogether.
Yet,inapuzzlingdisconnectwiththesetrends,themilitarycompetitionbetweenthetwocountriesisintensifying.India
hasbeennotingwithgreatconcernChina'srapidlyexpandingspaceweaponsprogram.ThediscoveryofasecretChinese
nuclearsubmarinebaseontheHainanIslandandtheexposureofamassivenuclearmissilesiteincentralChinaremind
NewDelhiofitsvulnerabilitytooverwhelmingattack.Thecontinuingimpasseoverthedisputedborderbetweenthetwo
countriesstandsinsharprelieftotheexpansionofcommercialgoodstrafficacrosstheNathuLapassthathadbeenclosed
sincethe1962war.
ThesecontradictorylogicsintheIndiaChinarelationshiparefueledbythedisentanglementoftheprivatesectorfromthe
stateinbothcountries.TheenormouscorporateinterestsofIndiaandChinaviewtheircounterpartsacrosstheMcMahon
Lineascompatriotswithwhombusinesscanbedoneformutualbenefit.Economicliberalizationandprivatesectorbooms
inbothcountrieshaveunleashedanappetiteforeconomicinteractionthatdoesnothavetowaitforresolutionofmilitary
andstrategicconflicts.WhetherornotChinaissympathetictoIndiabecomingapermanentmemberoftheSecurity
Councilisimmaterialtoexportersandimportersofthetwocountries,aslongastheirprofitsflow.
Althoughstatesdisallowthegainsoftradefromgettinglostintheacrimonyofmilitarystrategicrivalry,theyare
essentiallypoliticalactorswithpoliticalends.So,evenastheIndianandChinesechambersofcommercemayraisetoasts
toeachother,thestandoffoverapermanentseatforIndiaattheSecurityCouncilwilldogitsrelationswithChina.
NewDelhineedstodropitsblinkersandopenlyadmitthatChinaisnotsanguineaboutIndiajoiningthefivepermanent
members(theUnitedStates,Russia,China,Britain,andFrance)attheSecurityCouncil.OptimisticIndiandiplomats
arguethatChinahasindicatedinprivatesettingsthatitsmainobjectionisthatIndia'sbidisknottedwithJapan'sattempt
togarnerapermanentseat.Thisisaredherring,becauseChinesemilitaryjournalsandthinktanksarecloselymonitoring
India'seconomic,technological,andmilitaryadvances.ToassumethatChina'sstrategicplanningisTaiwanorJapan
centricmissesthechangingrealityofNewDelhi'sriseandthediscomfortitisgeneratinginBeijing.
From1955,whenIndianPrimeMinisterJawaharlalNehruconcededanofferforapermanentseatattheSecurityCouncil
toChina,NewDelhihaspermitteditselftobeoutsmartedbyBeijingonthiscontentiousissue.Itisnowhightimetostop
livinginillusionsandtoacknowledgethatChinaisoneoftheobstaclestoIndia'squestforglobalstature.

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