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NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll

Embargoed for release Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 6:00AM
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll tracks voter preferences and attitudes on a weekly basis throughout
the 2016 election cycle. Results are released every Tuesday at 6:00AM and are among registered voters.
Results for the week of July 18, 2016 through July 24, 2016 are among a national sample of 12,931 registered voters (+/- 1.2%),
4,035 registered Republican voters (+/-2.1%) and 4,093 registered Democratic voters (+/-2.0%). Complete error estimates can be
found in the methodology section below.

TOPLINE RESULTS
Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?

7/18--7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16 – 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28-1/3

Foreign
Policy
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
4
4
4
4
5
5
4
5
5
4
5
5
6

The
environment
7
7
8
8
8
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
9
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
8
8
8
8

Terrorism
26
23
22
21
21
23
12
12
13
13
12
12
14
14
16
17
19
18
12
13
13
14
16
16
15
17
19
21
23
23

Immigration
7
8
8
9
9
7
7
7
7
6
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
8
8
8

Health
care
13
12
13
13
15
14
17
17
15
16
16
15
16
15
15
14
15
13
15
16
16
16
15
14
16
13
15
13
13
14

Jobs and the
Economy
28
29
29
31
28
29
37
35
36
36
35
36
33
32
32
31
32
32
36
35
35
34
33
34
32
32
33
29
28
27

Education
8
8
9
8
9
9
10
11
10
12
11
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
11
10
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
8
9

Other
7
8
7
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
5
6
5
5
5
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
5

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
7/18—7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16 – 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2—5/8
4/25—5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Strongly approve
28
27
27
28
30
30
29
27
27
27
28
28
27
26
28
27
28
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
27
25
26
26
23
23

Somewhat approve
21
22
22
22
22
21
22
24
23
23
23
23
24
24
24
23
24
24
24
23
23
23
22
24
23
22
24
22
22
25

Somewhat disapprove
11
12
12
11
12
12
12
12
12
13
13
12
13
13
12
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
14
12
12
12

In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?
7/18---7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16—5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 - 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28

Republican
31
29
27
28
28
28
28
29
28
29
28
32
28
28
29
30
29
30
30
31
32
31

Democrat
32
33
33
34
35
34
35
35
33
34
35
35
36
35
34
34
35
33
36
35
36
35

Independent
36
36
38
37
36
36
36
36
37
35
35
31
35
36
35
35
35
36
32
33
31
33

No answer
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2

Strongly disapprove
39
38
38
38
35
37
36
37
37
36
35
36
36
37
37
37
35
35
35
36
37
37
39
38
38
40
36
40
42
40

No answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

31
30
30
31
28
31
33
30

35
35
35
34
34
34
32
34

33
33
33
33
36
33
34
34

1
2
2
2
1
2
2
2

As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? [AMONG IND OR DON’T KNOW FOR
PARTY]
7/18—7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16 – 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4 – 4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Republican
Party
32
37
32
33
32
32
33
33
32
31
33
32
32
35
33
33
31
31
31
31
32
34
38
34
35
34
33
36
36
37

Democratic
Party
26
26
26
26
29
28
28
26
28
29
28
32
27
27
30
28
29
28
28
27
29
28
28
28
30
26
27
26
26
24

Neither
39
34
39
37
36
36
36
37
37
37
36
35
38
35
34
35
38
37
39
41
36
36
33
35
33
37
39
37
36
37

No answer
2
3
4
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
1
3
3
3
4
2
4
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
1
1

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote?

7/18—7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5

Hillary Clinton,
the Democrat
46
46
47
48
49
48
49
48

Donald Trump,
the Republican
45
45
44
43
41
42
42
44

No
answer
9
9
10
9
10
10
9
9

5/23—5/29
5/16– 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8

47
47
48
49

45
43
45
44

8
9
7
7

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates for whom would you vote?

7/18—7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
6/2—6/5

Donald
Trump, the
Republican
41
40
38
38
36
38
38
40

Hillary
Clinton, the
Democrat
39
39
40
41
42
42
42
39

Gary
Johnson,
the
Libertarian
10
10
11
9
9
9
9
9

Jill Stein,
the
Green
Party
5
5
6
5
5
5
5
4

No
answer
6
7
6
6
7
7
6
8

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Donald Trump?

7/18—7/24
7/4—7/10
6/6—6/12
5/9 – 5/15

Strongly
favorable
17
14
15
14

Somewhat
favorable
23
22
22
23

Somewhat
unfavorable
13
13
12
13

Strongly
unfavorable
46
49
49
49

No
answer
1
2
2
1

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Mike Pence?

7/18—7/24
7/15—7/18

Strongly
favorable
15
11

Somewhat
favorable
17
15

Somewhat
unfavorable
11
9

Strongly
unfavorable
18
17

Don’t know
enough to say
37
48

Do you think the Republican Party…

7/18—7/24
7/11—7/17
6/13—6/19
5/23—5/29

Is united
now
9
8
7
9

Is divided now
but will unite
by November
32
31
27
34

Will still be
divided in
November
57
59
61
55

No
answer
3
3
5
3

How closely have you been following the Republican National Convention?

7/18—7/24

Very
closely
22

Somewhat
closely
42

Not very
closely
22

Not closely at
all
13

No answer
1

No answer
1
1

Compared to past Republican National Conventions, how interested are you in this week’s Republican National Convention?

7/18—7/24

More interested
41

Less interested
26

About the same level of
interest
32

No answer
2

The following questions were added on Thursday, July 21 after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention.
From what you saw or heard about this week’s Republican National Convention, is your opinion of the Republican Party more
favorable or less favorable? [AMONG THOSE WHO HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING RNC]

7/21—7/24

More favorable
25

Less favorable
36

My opinion didn’t change
37

No answer
1

Do you think the views expressed by the speakers at the Republican National Convention are representative of the views of most
Republican Party leaders or not? [AMONG THOSE WHO HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING RNC]
Yes, they are
representative
54

7/21—7/24

No, they are not
representative
41

No answer
4

Do you think Donald Trump and the Republicans have gone too far or not far enough in attacking Hillary Clinton during the
Republican National Convention this week? [AMONG THOSE WHO HAVE BEEN FOLOWING RNC]

7/21—7/24

Too far
48

Not far enough
47

No answer
5

Did you happen to watch Donald Trump’s speech at the Republican National Convention?

7/21—7/24

Yes, I watched
his speech
42

No, I did not watch his speech but
followed coverage of it in the news
36

No, I did not watch his speech or
follow coverage of it in the news
21

No
answer
1

From what you have heard or read, how would you rate Donald Trump’s speech at the Republican National Convention? [AMONG
THOSE WHO WATCHED OR FOLLOWED SPEECH]

7/21—7/24

Excellent
26

Good
23

Just okay
16

Poor
13

Terrible
21

No
answer
1

Don’t
know
enough
to say
26

No
answer
1

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Melania Trump?

7/21—7/24

Strongly
favorable
18

Somewhat
favorable
22

Somewhat
unfavorable
15

Strongly
unfavorable
17

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Ted Cruz?

7/21—7/24
2/29 – 3/6

Strongly
favorable
5
9

Somewhat
favorable
18
24

Somewhat
unfavorable
30
27

Strongly
unfavorable
46
37

No answer
2
3

METHODOLOGY
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking data for the week of July 18, 2016 through July 24, 2016 was conducted online among a
national sample of 12,931 adults aged 18 and over who say they are registered to vote. Respondents for this survey were selected from the nearly
three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this week has been weighted for age, race, sex, education,
region, and voter registration status using the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Current Population Survey to reflect the demographic
composition of the United States. An additional smoothing parameter for ideology based on previous Election Tracking interviews is included. The
smoothing parameter was derived from aggregated data on ideology by region collected from previous weeks (May 1-June 26) of the Weekly
Election Tracking poll.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error
can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and
measurement error.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate.
The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 1.2 percentage point for registered voters.
To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence
intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in
much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.
Group
Total RVs

Unweighted N
12931

Plus or minus
1.2

Republican RVs
Democrat RVs

4035
4093

2.1
2

Male
Female

6204
6727

1.6
1.7

18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+

699
1389
1819
2682
3443
2899

4.7
3.5
3.1
2.5
2.2
2.5

White
Black
Hispanic
Other

9982
993
996
960

1.3
4
4.5
4.3

Post-Convention RVs

4480

2