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RMIT UNIVERSITY

Quantitative Analysis
Group Assignment 1

Its a pomb (Victoria)

Vincent Ly 3371551
Jiahua Sun

3326833

Jiarong Li

3326772

Ru liu

3335572

Jia Xin Li

3326970

Jimmy Ye

3074073

Lu Bai

3344794

Boris Lakic

3239323

Due on 25th August 2012


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Meeting minutesMeeting1
Date: Saturday, 18 Aug 2012
Time: 10:00 AM
Location: Swanston Library
Agenda:

Read the whole assignment


Discuss and collect ideas on how will we accomplish the assignment
Each member are assigned individual tasks:
Ru Lu
Lu Bai
Jiarong
Jiahua Sun
Jiaxin Li
Jimmy Ye
Vincent Ly
Boris Lakic

Meeting Minutes, Data Analysis


Meeting Minutes, Data Analysis
Seasonal Index
Data analysis Appendix
Data Analysis
Summary, Intro, Mythology
Teams manager
Finalise the report

Aim to complete assignment by Sunday, 19 Aug


Decide to complete the assignment on Wednesdayays, 22 Aug
Use student email to communicate with each other
Meeting Minutes---Meeting2
Date: 19 Aug 2011
Time: 10:00 AM
Location: Swanston Library
Agenda:

Discuss result/finding with group member.


Correct mistakes / Choose best answers.
Finalise the report.

Executive Summary
Pomberries, a newly developed berry, these berries have become extremely popular and are
widely used as topping for desserts, spread or simply eaten raw as fruit.
The purpose of this report is to analyse Its a Pomb, one of our clientss pomberry brand to
see if it is viable to enter the market in terms of its competitiveness. The process has been
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conducted through using the linear regressions models, backward elimination methods which
are with all predictors in the market to analysis the organizations benefit in the market in
period of 1991 to 2011. The report also analysed our brands resistance and vulnerability of
Pomberry rot a new disease which affected the berry industry during period of 2001 and its
impact during the year.
Throughout the research study, we have carefully followed articles from research papers such
as Using Regression Mixture Analysis in Education Research and Science, Research
Designs, and Regression Analysis (in our reference) which is relevant to our valuation, and
as such we can provide an intensify and accurate forecast result to our client.

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Table of Contents
Executive Summary............................................................................................... 2
1.

Introduction..................................................................................................... 4

2.

Methodology....................................................................................................... 5

3.

Result and Discussion................................................................................... 7


3.1 Volume of sales over time (1991-2011)........................................................7
3.2 Volume of Sales Estimation..........................................................................8
3.3 Seasonal Index........................................................................................... 10
3.4 Pomberry rots disease in 2001...................................................................13
3.5 Competitors prices.................................................................................... 15
3.6 Test for auto correlation.............................................................................. 16

4.

Recommendation.......................................................................................... 17

5.

Appendix..................................................................................................... 18

6.

References................................................................................................... 36

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1. Introduction
We are a statistical consultant within a large economic consulting agency, our aim is to
conduct a in depth analysis on Its a Pomb one of the nine pomberry brands, there will be
various data modelling techniques used to analyse the various aspects of Its a pombs
performance. These performance data are then compared with our potential competitors to
conclude its strengths and weaknesses.
The analysis will cover the trend of its sales and prices during different economic
environment as well as the comparison with other eight potential competitors. The intention
of these analyses is to assist better understanding of the brands vulnerability during different
time period.
Throughout the report, we also conducted a research on the Pomberry rot, a disease which
had caused loss production of Pomberies during year of 2001, this research will focus on the
sales volume fluctuation around Its a Pomb and its competitors.

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2. Methodology
Throughout this report, there are two main methods used to assists our research, mainly liner
regression model where it contained all predictors and times series model to estimate the
relationship between our own volume of sales ( Its a pomb) and our prices over time. We
must also have to investigate how competitors prices can influence our volume of sales
during t period under different scenarios and seasons (2001 disease outbreak)
The resources collected in this report were primarily from our lecture topic 2 to 3, also text
books, where it listed in our reference section. Beside the academic information, forecasting
data were provided on the learning hub. The data contains the volume of sales, prices of
different berries brands over a specific period (Jan 1991-Dec 2011).
Methods:
Section 3.1 We have constructed a line chart depicting the volume of sales for Its a Pomb
and discussed the fluctuation of sale volume during different economical environments.
According to Black (2010), components of time-series forecasting consisted of trend, cycles,
cyclical effects, seasonal effects and irregular fluctuations. However, trend and seasonal
effects are the components that we were using during this report.
Section 3.2 - We estimated an equation of a trend line, in terms of Y and T, where Y is the
volume sales in period of t and T is the trend. The reason we did that is to determine the
relationship between the sales and time period.
Section 3.3 By using the technical guidelines to get the average sales and seasonal index
then we conclude the seasonal reasons for higher sales or lower sales during the year. Also we
have compared the original p-value and seasonal index p value to make sure the predictor is
significant or not.
Section 3.4 We have added a dummy variable to get a new regression equation, by using
this regression we have concluded that the new variable is good or not though null hypothesis
method.

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Section 3.5- We now try to investigate the impact of competitors prices on our volume of
sales by doing a regression between volumes of sales (as independent variable) against all of
the above variables and prices of other berries brands (as dependent variables). The main
goal is to investigate the effect of other berries prices on our brands volume of sales over
time.
Section 3.6 A Durbin Watson test was performed to test for existence of auto correlation.

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3. Result and Discussion


3.1 Volume of sales over time (1991-2011).

Its a Pomb! (volume in tonnes)


14.00000
12.00000
10.00000
8.00000
6.00000

Its a Pomb! (volume in


tonnes)

4.00000
2.00000
0.00000

The above line chart illustrated the data about the volume of sales of Its a Pomb (in tonnes)
relative to the time interval from January 1991 to December 2011.
From the graph, we can see that the sales volume of Its a Pomb fluctuates over the years. In
the first 10 years (1991-2001), the sales volume fluctuates between 8.00 to 10.00 tonnes.
Specially, in October 1999, the sales volume reaches the peak of 10.20558tones, but in august
1996 the company just sold 8.14238tonnes which is the lowest point of sales volume in the
first 10 years.
On the other hand, the last 10 years (2001-2011), the sales volume tends to increase
(population increase could be an important factor) which almost fluctuates between 9.00 to
10.00 tonnes. In December of 2001, the sales volume reaches the highest point over this line
chart, 11.73583 tonnes. This rapid increase in volume may cause by a large increase in
quantity demanded. Then decreased rapidly in 2002, in October it even reaches the lowest
point of the last 10 years (8.86338 tonnes).
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Moreover, we can see the volume peaked during December months for the past 20 years,
those increases and decreases of sales volume may be influenced by the seasonal effect.
Simply by analysing the overall line chart, we can find out that the graph is in an uptrend
with steady increase in volume over time.

3.2 Volume of Sales Estimation.


A trend is the long-run general direction of a business climate over a period of several years
(Black, Asafu-adjaye, Khan, Perera, Edwards& Harris, 2009). For the question here, we need
to estimate the relationship between the Pomberries sales and the time period. Assume Y is
the dependent variable, which is the sales of Pomberries and X is the independent variable,
which represents the time trend.
Refer to the Excel output (Graph 3.2.1), by using the coefficients of trend variable and
intercept; we can determine the equation of the trend line, which would be:
Y= 0.0064T+8.6504
Moreover, Adjust R square= 0.5131, which means 51.31% of the variables in Y could be
explained by X. This number indicates that the estimated line fits the data points well. (3.2.2)
As the slope of the equation is 0.0064, even though we can see the data has a up and down
pattern but the general direction (trend) is increasing. (3.2.3)
Further, the Normal Probability plot looks nearly like a straight line; therefore, the estimated
errors are normally distributed. (3.2.4)
In order to make sure, the Durbin-Watson test to check whether the autocorrelation is present
or not, see the graph (3.2.5) (refer to appendix).
As shown in the graph, the Dw value is calculated as 1.365, which is less than the Du value
1.69, so we reject H0 (positive autocorrelations is represented). Errors are not independent.
Line of linear modal assumptions is violated; therefore, we cannot trust the estimates above
because computer assumes all linear assumption are satisfied.
3.2.1
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Coefficient
s
8.65041737
Intercept

7
0.00636097

X Variable 1

3.2.2

Regression Statistics
0.71771177
Multiple R

8
0.51511019

R Square

Adjusted R

0.51317063

Square

7
0.45074628

Standard Error

Observations

252

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3.2.3

Its a Pomb! (volume in tonnes)


14.00000
12.00000
10.00000
8.00000

f(x) = 0.01x + 8.65


R = 0.52

6.00000
4.00000
2.00000
0.00000
0.00000

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100.00000 200.00000 300.00000

Its a Pomb! (volume in


tonnes)
Linear (Its a Pomb! (volume
in tonnes))

3.2.4

Normal Probability Plot


14
12
10
8
Y

6
4
2
0
0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Sample Percentile

3.3 Seasonal Index


A seasonal index is an index number that indicates seasonal patterns if they exist. A seasonal
index of 100 means there is no seasonality for that period. A seasonal index greater than 100
indicates that observations in that period are higher than average and vice versa for seasonal
indices less than 100. Seasonal index calculation:
Average sales of each month/average sales of the entire period.

Date
Jan

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(average sales)
9.435757143

(seasonal index)
99.86280623

Feb

9.519904762

100.7533778

Mar

9.370311429

99.17016519

Apr

9.519295714

100.746932

May

9.366734762

99.13231174

Jun

9.30158381

98.44279029

Jul

9.22190381

97.59950148

Aug

9.224201429

97.6238182

Sep

9.26296619

98.03408288

Oct

9.332868095

98.77388577

Nov

9.585371905

101.4462457

Dec

10.24374333

108.4140827

Total

9.448720198

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Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.821744923

R Square

0.675264718

Adjusted R Square

0.672656402

Standard Error

0.36961169

Observations

252

ANOVA

df

SS

MS

Significance F

Regression

70.73515782

35.36757891

258.8891997

1.53257E-61

Residual

249

34.01658763

0.136612802

Total

251

104.7517454

Coefficients

Standard Error

P-value

Lower 95%

t Stat

Intercept

-0.529507332

0.829689552

0.638199349

0.523930423

-2.163611494

X Variable 1

0.006304128

0.000320107

19.69383576

1.08248E-52

0.005673666

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X Variable 2

0.091870595

0.008290333

11.08165275

1.8339E-23

We added SI to test for seasonality s existence.


Y=0.0063T+0.0919SI-0.5295
Y: Volume of sales
T: Trend
SI: Seasonal Index
Above average sales: During November and December every year (High seasonality index
=> major season of this brand)
Seasonal variation is a component of a time series which is defined as the changes in
inventory levels, profits, sales volume etc. caused by seasonality of the business (Groebner,
Shannon, and Fry&Smith2010)
In this case, we chose the grand total average as the base number for the seasonal index.
Thats mean if a seasonal index is100; there is no seasonality for that period, if a seasonal
index less than 100, that observation in that period is lower than the average, and vice versa.
The column of seasonal index shows that there are four months that exhibit above the average
sales which are February, April, November, and December. The highest seasonal index in this
case is 108.41 in December. It is likely that December is the berries season due to high
seasonal index. Furthermore, to analysis the seasonal effects, we add the seasonal index to the
original model as a seasonal predictor. According to the update Excel regression output, the
equation of the trend and seasonal index line can be determined to be:
Y=0.0063T+0.0919SI-0.5295
To decide whether the seasonal effects is a good predictor or not, we need to do the individual
significant test that can be computed for the regression coefficient using a p value test.
Ho:2 =0(not significant)
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0.075542478

Against
Ha:20(significant)
Decision rule
1) If p -value is less than 0.05, Reject Ho.
2) If p value is greater than 0.05, accept Ho.
Since p value represents how significant the errors of our equations are, we want it to be as
low as possible ( prefer to be less than 5%).
At p-value=0.05, the null hypothesis is rejected for seasonal index variable because the pvalue is less than 0.05, which is 1.83E-23.Therefore, it means that SI is a significant
predictor.

3.4 Pomberry rots disease in 2001


In the year 2001, the outbreak of a new disease affecting pomberries had a devastating impact
on the industry. Known as Pomberry rot, thousands of hectares of pomberry fields were
destroyed to contain the disease. Many pomberry brands were affected. For the overall
average of sales volume in 2001, all the brands which can resist to Pomberry rot have greater
sales performance than the brands which cannot resist to Pomberry rot. Due to the interaction
of supply and demand for berries, if the demand is assumed to be constant, and for brands
which are not resistant to Pomberry rot disease, the Supply these brands will decrease, and
consequently, the sales will decline. However, if the brand could resist to Pomberry rot
disease, the Supply of this brand will not be affected. In this case, if the Demand in the
market does not change, but the supply of berries from the brands which are not resistant to
Pomberry rot decline, their consumers will have to buy from immune brand, therefore, the
sale of the brand which could resist to Pomberry rot increase. We are trying to investigate the
effect of the outbreak on our brands volume of sales.
Firstly, a dummy variable was added as a predictor to indicate the occurrence of disease in
the trend and seasonal index model:
1 if the Pomberry rot was presented.
0 if the Pomberry rot was not presented.
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A regression analysis was performed on volume of sales against T, SI and D, the result is
listed below:
Y=-0.58118+0.006304T+0.091871SI+1.08517D
According to the results we obtained from our regression analysis, we can conclude that all of
these predictors are significant (P values are under 5%).
Thanks to the fact that our brand is immune to the rot disease, our sales are not influenced by
the disease. Due to the interaction between supply and demand of the market, we observed an
increase in sales during the year 2001.
Our analysis has proven our previous observations were right. We observed an increase in
sales during the year 2001 thanks to our brands resistance to the disease.

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.896517

R Square

0.803742

Adjusted R
Square

0.801368

Standard
Error

0.287918

Observations

252

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ANOVA

Significan
df

Regression

SS

84.19336

MS

28.0644

338.547

ce F

2.31E-87

0.08289
Residual

248

20.55838

Total

251

104.7517

Coefficien

Standard

ts

Error

Intercept

X Variable 1

X Variable 2

X Variable 3

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-0.58118

0.006304

0.091871

1.08517

0.646319

0.000249

0.006458

0.085167

Lower
t Stat

P-value

0.36940

0.89922

25.2817

1.36E-

70

14.2259

5.55E-

34

12.7416

6.08E-

29

95%

-1.85416

0.005813

0.079151

0.917426

Lower

Upper

Upper 95%

95.0%

95.0%

0.69179262

0.69179

1.85416

0.00679525

0.00581

0.00679

0.10459002

0.07915

0.10459

1.25291289

0.91742

1.25291

3.5 Competitors prices


The clients are interested in how prices influence the sales. According to the supply and
demand law, it would be reasonable to expect a decrease in sales if we increase our own
price. So the price of competitors may influence the volume of sales. We have to investigate
the effects of various competitors prices on our volume of sales. First off, we regressed
volume of sales against all possible variables (Trend, Seasonal Index, Dummy variable (2001
disease outbreak) , own price, and other competitors s prices) and we used backward
elimination method to eliminate the least significant predictor one by one in order to find
down the relevant competitors who may be competing in our categories .Our regression
results are listed below :
Regression 1: X13 (passion fruits) got the highest p value (0.721) Eliminate passion fruits.
Regression 2: X9 (pomania) got the highest p value (0.702) eliminate pomania.
Regression 3: X7 (pom poms) got the highest P value (0.701) eliminate pom poms.
Regression 4: X8(pomtastic) got the highest P value (0.380) eliminate pomtastic.
Regression 5: X8 (pompadour) got the highest P value (0.298) eliminate pompadour.
Regression 6: X7 (Pomeranian) got the highest p value (0.1224), eliminate Pomeranian.
Regression 7: All P values are under 5 %, accept this model.
Refer to appendix for regression trials.
Yt= -2.069+0.0060T+0.0884SI+1.0526D+0.11663P+0.15981P1+0.1719P2+0.0553P3.
Yt : Volume of sales ( its a pomp over time)
T: Trend
SI: seasonal index
D: dummy
P: own price (its a pomp)
P1: up Pompeii brands prices
P2: I cant believe its not pompous brands prices
P3: pomalicious brands prices
Refer to appendix for different regression trials
Of all the brands, up Pompeii, I cant believe its not pompous and pomalicious are the most
relevant brands. From the figures, we can see that all their p-value are less than = 0.05, so
these brands prices are significant predictors of our model. The variables such as passion
fruits, pomania, pom poms, pomtastic, pompadour, Pomeranian have been eliminated because
the p values are higher than 5% => we can conclude that these brands are not relevant brands
which are not competing in our categories.
The model shows that for one dollar increase in competitors price will result the increase in
the volumes of the sales of our own price. For example, a dollar increase in the price of up
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Pompeii would lead to increasing 0.15981tones of sales volume. I cant believe its not
pompous have the significant influence on which one unit increase in the price, result in
0.1719 tonnes of our own sales volume. This indicates that competitors prices in the same
market (budget) will have the biggest influences on volumes of sale. Therefore, competitors
prices are in a different market (premium) would have a minimal effect on sales volume.
Since Its a pomb , up pompeii and I cant believe its not pompous are competing in the same
category(budget). We can expect that up pompeii s prices and I cant believe its not
pompous s prices have strong influence on our volume of sales. Although, pomalicious is
competing in premium category, there may be a good chance that this brand is competing in
the same region with our brand. Therefore, according to our finding, pomaliciouss prices
also has a strong relationship with our volume of sales.

3.6 Test for auto correlation


A Durbin Watson test was performed to test for auto correlation. As shown in the graph 6.1.1,
the Dw value is 2.1233, which is greater than the value of Du 1.78, so we accept the model
(this model is free of auto correlation).

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4. Recommendation
According to our analysis, if our client wants to compete in budget category of the berries
market in Victoria. They should stock up on up Pompeii, I cant believe it s not pompous and
its a pomp brand. A few other factors should also be taken into consideration (Trend,
Seasonal Index, possible disease outbreak and the impact of other brands prices on our
volume of sales). The volume of sales tends to increase over time due to the growth of
population; we expect an increase in demand over time. The berries season is on December
every year, so we also expect a significant increase in demand for berries during December
months. Possible disease outbreak is a threat which can be eliminated by picking the right
brands which have strong resistance against diseases. Initial investment may be needed to
spend on brands research in terms of their resistance. Finally, the client also needs to notice
the impact of other brands prices on their sales. According to this research, its pomp, up
Pompeii, I cant believe its not pompous and pomaliciouss prices are significantly related.
We can increase the accuracy of the final equation by adding more independent variables like
the cost of growing berries, cost of transportations, inventory management cost.

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5. Appendix
3.2.5
Durbin Watson test

(et-etet

et-1

1)^2

et^2

0.0018
0.043552623

97

0.0435526

0.1040

0.0778

23

07

12

0.2789483

0.0713

0.2982

55

91

68

0.5461393

0.1051

0.0492

34

26

0.2218703

0.0825

0.0042

13

01

72

0.0653587

0.0063

09

84

0.0211

0.1452577

0.0216

0.0854

0.292396751

96

-0.278024227

0.2923967

0.3253

0.0772

-0.278948355

-0.546139334

-0.221870313

0.065358709

0.14525773

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51

97

0.2780242

0.0052

0.0421

27

92

38

0.2052752

0.0004

0.0509

06

17

34

0.2256861

0.0364

0.1734

85

95

-0.205275206

-0.225686185

-0.416527163

0.4165271
0.799161858

-0.15249912

0.6386

63

1.4779

0.7991618

0.9056

0.0232

58

59

56

0.1524991

0.1551

0.0582

72

84

0.2414199

0.0493

0.2149

01

86

0.241419901

0.463648922

0.4009977

0.0265

0.0566

0.238086766

45

85

0.118545788

0.2380867

0.0142

0.0140

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66

53

0.1185457

0.0134

5.83E-

88

86

06

0.0024148

0.0725

0.0738

0.27173383

09

33

39

0.2717338

0.4206

0.1420

0.376857148

21

0.002414809

0.3768571

0.0437

0.0281

0.167738127

48

31

36

0.1677381

0.1905

0.3650

0.604209106

27

07

69

0.6042091

0.4897

0.0091

0.095579916

06

05

36

0.0955799

0.0150

0.0007

0.026931063

16

09

25

0.0269310

0.0533

0.0665

0.257932042

63

61

29

0.2579320

0.5751

0.2504

42

08

27

0.50042698

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69.341

50.793

05

1.3651
DW

79

DU

1.69

DL

1.65

Competitors prices regression trials

Regression
1

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

0.912097
Multiple R

947

0.831922
R Square

664

Adjusted R

0.822741

Square

969

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Standard

0.260550

Error

267

Observations

252

ANOVA

df

SS

MS

Regression

13

79.97123522

6.151633479

90.6165253

Residual

238

16.15697317

0.067886442

Total

251

96.12820839

Coefficien

Standard

ts

Error

Upper
t Stat

P-value

95.0%

0.07675240

0.1535357

13

1.418372
Intercept

49

0.797930427

-1.77756411

0.006045
X Variable 1

215

0.0064945
0.000228108

26.5015172

0.087497

5.86E-73

84

1.93626E-

0.0994163

X Variable 2

157

0.006050394

14.4613993

34

21

X Variable 3

1.053559

0.079266088

13.29142207

1.59633E-

1.2097117

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X Variable 4

038

30

68

0.126473

0.00441085

0.2131446

41

366

0.043995983

2.874657092

0.168256
X Variable 5

706

0.2526716
0.042850642

3.92658543

0.00011288

0.175976
X Variable 6

92

79

0.2573077
0.041285078

4.262482461

2.9155E-05

61

0.65909117

0.0499440

0.441722392

83

0.12162499

0.0091073

1.553531251

75

0.014435
X Variable 7

654

0.032680376

0.033974
X Variable 8

265

0.021869058

0.011538
X Variable 9

038

0.032189634

0.0518749

0.358439549

0.72033213

46

0.39866091

0.0275780

0.845535948

87

0.020737
X Variable 10

565

0.024525942

0.020650
X Variable 11

966

0.020009889

1.032038009

0.058598
X Variable 12

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072

0.025122587

2.332485529

0.0187681
0.3031019

45

0.02050983

0.1080891

05

0.007098
X Variable 13

323

Regression
2

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

0.912048
Multiple R

741

0.831832
R Square

906

Adjusted R

0.823389

Square

37

Standard

0.260074

Error

027

Observations

252

ANOVA

28 | P a g e

0.019910643

0.356508988

0.72177527

0.0463219

23

df

SS

MS

98.5171256
Regression

12

79.96260695

6.663550579

Residual

239

16.16560144

0.0676385

Total

251

96.12820839

Coefficien

Standard

ts

Error

Upper
t Stat

P-value

95.0%

1.334229
Intercept

393

0.760832298

1.753644524

0.006040
X Variable 1

87

0.000227366

26.56890921

0.087399
X Variable 2

734

0.006033171

14.48653247

1.053710
X Variable 3

162

0.079120073

13.31786141

0.126027
X Variable 4

764

0.043897841

2.870933094

0.167266

0.1645641
0.08077329

32

2.71994E-

0.0064887

73

67

1.46787E-

0.0992847

34

17

1.22045E-

1.2095719

30

11

0.00445978

0.2125038

51

0.00011620

0.2513475

X Variable 5

01

0.042682283

3.918862814

21

X Variable 6

0.177014

0.041107142

4.306167804

2.42586E-

0.2579928

29 | P a g e

25

05

28

0.68679353

0.0507443

0.403701042

85

0.013079
X Variable 7

466

0.03239889

0.033904
X Variable 8

929

0.021828222

0.0090953

1.553261138

0.12168393

46

0.70208085

0.0508839

0.382972088

87

0.39899684

0.0275410

0.844926586

56

0.30825300

0.0189382

1.021071489

99

0.01793626

0.1086385

98

0.012279
X Variable 9

488

0.032063664

0.020684
X Variable 10

36

0.024480659

0.020379
X Variable 11

399

0.019958836

0.059478
X Variable 12

144

Regression
3

SUMMARY OUTPUT
30 | P a g e

0.024955312

2.383386091

Regression Statistics

0.911992
Multiple R

164

0.831729
R Square

707

Adjusted R

0.824017

Square

318

Standard

0.259611

Error

262

Observations

252

ANOVA

df

SS

MS

107.843337
Regression

11

79.95268657

7.268426052

Residual

240

16.17552182

0.067398008

Total

251

96.12820839

31 | P a g e

Coefficien

Standard

ts

Error

Upper
t Stat

P-value

95.0%

0.05213361

0.0132066

1.951728669

98

1.41432E-

0.0064846

73

34

1.04946E-

0.0992945

34

78

6.79347E-

1.2107693

31

95

0.00411447

0.2130381

52

1.418676
Intercept

876

0.726882224

0.006037
X Variable 1

817

0.000226822

26.61918077

0.087432
X Variable 2

164

0.006021843

14.51917005

1.055442
X Variable 3

855

0.078850056

13.38544199

0.126811
X Variable 4

656

0.043772069

2.897090709

0.167266
X Variable 5

053

0.2511961
0.042606336

3.925849318

0.00011296

73

1.44592E-

0.2593132

4.427897627

05

65

0.70717368

0.0513934

0.376101504

95

0.179470
X Variable 6

043

0.04053166

0.012127
X Variable 7

756

0.032245966

0.033941

0.0089812

X Variable 8

236

0.021789176

1.557710838

0.12061947

11

X Variable 9

0.024376026

0.38205313

0.0266714

32 | P a g e

0.021346
786

0.875728721

89

0.30556188

0.0187892

1.026771321

74

0.01843805

0.1080755

02

0.020455
X Variable 10

677

0.01992233

0.059052
X Variable 11

Regression
4

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

0.911937
Multiple R

789

0.831630
R Square

531

Adjusted R

0.824644

Square

246

Standard

0.259148

33 | P a g e

0.024886167

2.372896576

Error

425

Observations

252

ANOVA

df

SS

MS

119.037589
Regression

10

79.94315296

7.994315296

Residual

241

16.18505543

0.067157906

Total

251

96.12820839

Coefficien
ts

Lower
Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

1.478304
Intercept

034

0.708117303

0.03787956

2.8731933

2.087654162

02

7.56232E-

0.0055914

74

07

0.006037
X Variable 1

412

95.0%

0.000226415

26.66523292

0.087247

0.0754457

X Variable 2

163

0.00599102

14.56299046

6.874E-35

16

X Variable 3

1.055549

0.078708969

13.41079611

5.23004E-

0.9005045

34 | P a g e

X Variable 4

932

31

81

0.126119

0.00421697

0.0401243

83

0.00011537

0.0828679

04

1.31262E-

0.1002960

05

65

163

0.043655359

2.888973223

0.166566
X Variable 5

836

0.042489868

3.920154184

0.179954
X Variable 6

936

0.040438927

4.450042335

0.033851
X Variable 7

557

0.021749028

1.556462976

0.0766940
0.12091024

0.021388
X Variable 8

505

0.024332316

0.38026795

0.0693196

0.879016411

68

0.020608
X Variable 9

839

0.019882657

0.30099692

0.0597748

1.036523389

16

0.01630227

0.0111167

57

0.059866
X Variable 10

177

Regressio
n5

SUMMARY OUTPUT

35 | P a g e

15

0.024747705

2.419059786

Regression Statistics

0.91164177
Multiple R

0.83109072
R Square

Adjusted R

0.82480897

Square

Standard

0.25902667

Error

Observation
s

252

ANOVA

df

SS

MS

132.302418
Regression

79.89126207

8.876806897

Residual

242

16.23694632

0.067094819

Total

251

96.12820839

36 | P a g e

Lower
Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

1.63893828
Intercept

0.683809465

0.01729961

2.9859165

2.396776246

15

5.59132E-

0.0055858

74

76

6.00777E-

0.0754507

35

29

2.01804E-

0.9063836

31

78

0.00458580

0.0388835

19

0.00603146
X Variable 1

0.000226208

26.66339332

0.08724638
X Variable 2

0.005988205

14.56970581

1.06089056
X Variable 3

0.078437254

13.5253405

0.12478406
X Variable 4

0.043608432

2.861466512

0.16157076
X Variable 5

0.0786647
0.042088226

3.838858909

0.17862036
X Variable 6

0.040391431

4.422234127

0.00015785

36

1.47657E-

0.0990567

05

12

0.03344820
X Variable 7

95.0%

0.021733971

0.12511499

0.0762601

1.538982748

13

0.02074306

0.29762170

0.0598886

X Variable 8

0.01987273

1.043795199

66

X Variable 9

0.06005588

0.024735137

2.427958225

0.01591419

0.0113322

37 | P a g e

Regression
6

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

0.9112246
Multiple R

02

0.8303302
R Square

75

Adjusted R

0.8247444

Square

Standard

0.2590743

Error

79

Observations

252

ANOVA

df

38 | P a g e

SS

MS

32

148.649277
Regression

79.8181617

9.977270213

Residual

243

16.31004669

0.067119534

Total

251

96.12820839

Coefficien

Standard

ts

Error

Upper
t Stat

P-value

1.8590167
Intercept

66

0.650611897

0.00464234

0.5774581

2.857335954

09

3.42332E-

0.0064824

74

26

4.88043E-

0.0998322

36

1.76471E-

1.1999877

31

35

0.0060368
X Variable 1

84

0.00022619

26.68947652

0.0881619
X Variable 2

18

0.00592471

14.88037693

1.0475277
X Variable 3

77

0.077399705

13.53400212

0.1210431
X Variable 4

52

0.2066671
0.043468913

2.784591204

0.1605250
X Variable 5

17

0.042084049

3.814391029

0.00578155

03

0.00017318

0.2434210

99

0.1728176
X Variable 6
39 | P a g e

71

95%

0.2516370
0.040014401

4.318886906

2.286E-05

13

0.0336948
X Variable 7

25

0.021736689

1.550136022

0.0578303
X Variable 8

24

Regression
7

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

0.910303
Multiple R

512

0.828652
R Square

485

Adjusted R

0.823736

Square

777

Standard

0.259818

Error

108

Observations

252

40 | P a g e

0.024647607

2.346285544

0.0091215
0.12241025

49

0.01976585

0.1063805

ANOVA

Significanc
df

SS

MS

Regression

79.65687872

11.3795541

Residual

244

16.47132967

0.067505449

Total

251

96.12820839

Coefficien

Standard

ts

Error

t Stat

eF

168.572377

1.09805E-

89

P-value

Lower 95%

2.069001
Intercept

202

0.638180391

0.00135233

3.3260468

3.242031924

12

4.26034E-

0.0055897

74

35

0.006036
X Variable 1

548

0.000226839

26.61160826

0.088429
X Variable 2

477

0.0767308
0.005939196

14.88913201

1.052628

4.1804E-36

1.21685E-

0.8998722

X Variable 3

481

0.077551722

13.57324455

31

19

X Variable 4

0.116633

0.043500234

2.681205942

0.00783620

0.0309491

41 | P a g e

X Variable 5

086

96

0.159813

0.00019217

0.0766856

2.64125E-

0.0928635

05

18

0.02568862

0.0067808

067

0.042202347

3.78682892

0.171898
X Variable 6

834

0.040124868

4.284097217

0.055368
X Variable 7

245

0.024666988

3.6.1
Durbin Watson test for final equation

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression
Statistics

0.9103
Multiple R

04

0.8286
R Square

52

Adjusted

0.8237

R Square

37

42 | P a g e

2.244629334

Standard

0.2598

Error

18

Observati
ons

252

ANOVA

Signific
df

Regressio
n

Residual

244

SS

MS

ance F

79.656

11.37

168.5

88

955

724

1.1E-89

16.471

0.067

33

505

P-

Lower

Upper

Lower

Upper

value

95%

95%

95.0%

95.0%

96.128
Total

251

21

Standa
Coeffici

rd

ents

Error

t Stat

Intercept

43 | P a g e

-2.069

0.6381

3.242

0.001

0.811

3.326

0.811

03

352

3.32605

96

05

96

0.0060

0.0002

26.61

4.26E-

0.006

0.005

0.006

Variable 1

37

27

161

74

0.00559

483

59

483

0.0884

0.0059

14.88

4.18E-

0.07673

0.100

0.076

0.100

Variable 2

29

39

913

36

128

731

128

1.0526

0.0775

13.57

1.22E-

0.89987

1.205

0.899

1.205

Variable 3

28

52

324

31

385

872

385

0.1166

2.681

0.007

0.03094

0.202

0.030

0.202

Variable 4

33

0.0435

206

836

317

949

317

0.1598

0.0422

3.786

0.000

0.07668

0.242

0.076

0.242

Variable 5

13

02

829

192

94

686

94

0.1718

0.0401

4.284

2.64E-

0.09286

0.250

0.092

0.250

Variable 6

99

25

097

05

934

864

934

0.0553

0.0246

2.244

0.025

0.00678

0.103

0.006

0.103

Variable 7

68

67

629

689

956

781

956

(et-etet

et-1

1)^2

et^2

0.064

0.004

87

208

0.082

0.064

0.000

0.006

53

87

312

811

44 | P a g e

0.034

0.082

0.002

0.001

01

53

354

156

0.319

0.034

0.124

0.102

515

01

978

09

0.303

0.319

0.387

0.091

15

515

706

897

0.240

0.303

0.295

0.057

283

15

314

736

0.234

0.240

0.225

0.055

71

283

615

087

0.067

0.234

0.091

0.004

477

71

315

553

0.030

0.067

0.009

0.000

65

477

629

939

0.171

0.030

0.019

0.029

42

65

817

387

4.66E-

0.027

0.164

0.171

05

092

45 | P a g e

42

0.427

0.164

0.350

0.182

301

343

586

0.136

0.427

0.084

0.018

863

301

354

731

0.207

0.136

0.118

0.043

89

863

854

218

0.038

0.207

0.060

0.001

263

89

591

464

0.231

0.038

0.072

0.053

43

263

735

56

0.141

0.231

0.008

0.020

74

43

044

091

0.121

0.141

0.069

0.014

842

74

477

845

0.211

0.121

0.008

0.044

298

842

002

647

0.211

0.199

0.055

0.235
46 | P a g e

16

298

324

0.150

0.235

0.149

0.022

888

16

032

767

0.185

0.150

0.001

0.034

295

888

184

334

0.422

0.185

0.369

0.178

76

295

734

728

0.291

0.422

0.510

0.085

868

76

696

187

0.043

0.291

0.061

0.001

789

868

543

917

0.496

0.043

0.291

0.246

54

789

95

547

0.258

0.496

0.570

0.066

643

54

294

896

0.095

0.258

0.125

0.009

96

643

745

209

0.152

0.061

0.023

327

0.095

47 | P a g e

96

647

203

0.254

0.152

0.010

0.064

83

327

507

938

0.243

0.254

0.248

0.059

41

83

238

246

0.291

0.243

0.002

0.085

92

41

353

216

0.065

0.291

0.051

0.004

94

92

064

349

0.191

0.065

0.066

0.036

093

94

068

516

0.010

0.191

0.040

0.000

95

093

822

12

0.353

0.010

0.132

0.124

227

95

625

769

0.007

0.353

0.129

4.92E-

02

227

774

05

0.307

0.315

48 | P a g e

0.561

0.007

83

02

825

658

0.126

0.561

0.474

0.016

653

83

016

041

0.080

0.126

0.043

0.006

78

653

027

525

0.175

0.080

0.009

0.030

94

78

057

956

0.247

0.175

0.179

0.061

716

94

487

363

0.122

0.247

0.015

0.014

452

716

691

994

0.330

0.122

0.205

0.109

32

452

001

111

0.328

0.330

0.433

0.107

431

32

952

867

0.327

0.328

1.62E-

0.107

157

431

06

032

0.096

0.327

0.053

0.009

49 | P a g e

157

064

37

0.035

0.096

0.003

0.001

781

723

28

0.464

0.035

0.250

0.215

46

781

24

722

0.350

0.464

0.012

0.122

46

941

99

0.148

0.350

0.249

0.022

984

684

196

0.316

0.148

0.028

0.100

935

984

207

448

0.158

0.316

0.225

0.024

07

935

634

987

0.032

0.158

0.015

0.001

19

07

847

036

0.214

0.032

0.060

0.045

323

19

768

934

0.214

0.247

0.080

0.283
50 | P a g e

08

323

415

137

0.164

0.283

0.200

0.026

14

08

01

942

0.287

0.164

0.015

0.082

17

14

136

467

0.165

0.287

0.014

0.027

117

17

897

264

0.168

0.165

1.2E-

0.028

582

117

05

42

0.313

0.168

0.232

0.098

81

582

701

476

0.572

0.313

0.066

0.327

81

869

642

0.062

0.572

0.260

0.003

33

176

884

0.053

0.062

0.013

0.002

097

33

322

819

0.087

0.053

0.001

0.007

74

097

698

51 | P a g e

0.368

0.087

0.078

0.135

489

74

82

784

0.314

0.368

0.002

0.098

074

489

961

642

0.251

0.314

0.003

0.063

049

074

972

026

0.467

0.251

0.516

0.218

68

049

578

729

0.080

0.467

0.300

0.006

474

68

478

476

0.414

0.080

0.245

0.172

79

474

282

047

0.022

0.414

0.153

0.000

62

79

79

512

0.064

0.022

0.007

0.004

783

62

64

197

0.237

0.064

0.091

0.056

783

434

453

0.003

0.030

52 | P a g e

0.175

0.237

77

822

897

0.307

0.175

0.233

0.094

66

77

709

654

0.087

0.307

0.048

0.007

754

66

359

701

0.032

0.087

0.003

0.001

738

754

027

072

0.050

0.032

0.006

0.002

13

738

868

513

0.288

0.050

0.114

0.083

375

13

588

16

0.167

0.288

0.207

0.027

03

375

394

899

0.325

0.167

0.242

0.105

38

03

468

872

0.226

0.325

0.009

0.051

653

38

747

372

0.226

0.053

1.63E-

0.004
53 | P a g e

04

653

221

05

0.173

0.004

0.028

0.030

88

04

846

235

0.167

0.173

4.69E-

0.027

03

88

05

0.227

0.167

0.003

0.051

89

03

704

934

0.153

0.227

0.005

0.023

27

89

569

491

0.036

0.153

0.013

0.001

91

27

54

362

0.127

0.036

0.027

0.016

449

91

013

243

0.021

0.127

0.022

0.000

449

097

45

0.082

0.021

0.010

0.006

593

773

822

54 | P a g e

0.266

0.082

0.122

0.071

94

593

175

259

0.041

0.266

0.094

0.001

135

94

913

692

0.039

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135

06

585

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25

811

333

288

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176

55 | P a g e

0.508

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438

1E-04

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243

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161

56 | P a g e

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4.31E-

0.005

476

911

05

399

57 | P a g e

0.218

0.073

0.085

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13

476

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579

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58 | P a g e

0.139
46

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46

912

654

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525

59 | P a g e

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657

60 | P a g e

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61 | P a g e

0.480
375

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243

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62 | P a g e

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63 | P a g e

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1.38E-

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72

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71

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64 | P a g e

0.221

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214

949

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212

65 | P a g e

0.027

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1.3E-

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742

66 | P a g e

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622

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041

67 | P a g e

-0.428

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70 | P a g e

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71 | P a g e

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011

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769

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16.47

46

133

2.123
DW

362

DU

1.78

DL

1.57

DW>D

Accept this

model

72 | P a g e

73 | P a g e

6. References
Statrek, Important statistic formulas, Statrek 2012, viewed on 20th August 2012,
<http://stattrek.com/statistics/formulas.aspx>
McClave and Sincich (2011) First Course in Statistics, A: International Edition,
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McClave and Sincich (2009) First Course in Statistics, A: International Edition,
10th Edition
Devore, J.L. (2004). Probability and Statistics for Engineering and the Sciences (7th
Edition)Brook/Cole
Keller & Warrack. Statistics for Management and Economics (6th Edition)
Mathematical Statistics with Applications (3rd Edition) Wadsworth
Berenson et al. (2010). Basic Business Statistics, Second edition, Pearson
Black, K and J Asafu-Adjaye and N Khan and N Perera and P Edwards and M Harris
Australasian Business Statistics, 2nd Edition, Wiley, 2009
The Baike of Baidu 2011, Cow Disease, Baidu, China, viewed as 16th Aug, 2011
<http://baike.baidu.com/view/22501.html?wtp=tt>
Statistical Methods for Social Sciences(criminology research),viewed on 18th August 2012.
(research paper). <http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/sas/dae/rreg.htm>
Ding 2006, Using Regression Mixture Analysis in Education Research, Practical
Assessment, Research & Evaluation, viewed 20 August 2012,
<http://pareonline.net/pdf/v11n11.pdf>
Arayesh 2010, Regression analysis of effective factor on people participation in protecting
and revitalizing of pastures and forests in Ilam province from the view of users, African

74 | P a g e

Journal of Agricultural Research Vol. 6(2), viewed 20 August 2012,<


http://www.academicjournals.org/ajar/pdf/pdf2011/18%20Jan/Arayesh.pdf>
Science, Research Designs, and Regression Analysis: An Introduction, Viewed 20 August
2012 <http://www.polsci.org/pluemper/courses/gv547_m11.pdf>

75 | P a g e