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**Pattern recognition to forecast seismic time
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J. L. Justo

Universidad de Sevilla

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2004).050 deﬁned as a source of earthquakes with homogenous seismic and tectonic characteristics. Although clustering techniques have been successfully used to study different time series (Martínez-Álvarez. 0957-4174/$ . a line of faults. a great effort is being made to develop techniques that forecast these unpredictable natural disasters in order to take precautionary measures.5 in this work.05. clustering techniques are used to obtain patterns which model the behavior of seismic temporal data and can help to predict medium–large earthquakes. J. & Riquelme. 2005).*. Given this deﬁnition. consequently. This means that the process of earthquakes generation in each area is homogenous in space and time. it is usual to ﬁnd data that can be represented as time series in many research areas. Justo). crubio@lsi. showing a remarkable performance and the signiﬁcance of the obtained results. Troncoso b. In this paper. Spain Area of Computer Science. Sfetsos & Siriopoulos.Expert Systems with Applications 37 (2010) 8333–8342 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Expert Systems with Applications journal homepage: www. the clustering technique used in this paper shows that these time series exhibit some temporal patterns. Once these patterns are extracted. First. it is not possible to predict future values with reliability. this concept must not be confused with the . It may be linear. From a tectonic point of view.see front matter Ó 2010 Elsevier Ltd.elsevier. Hence. seismic and tectonic information. Justo a. All rights reserved. 1. Rubio-Escudero). This paper analyzes and forecasts earthquakes time series by means of the application of clustering techniques. Morales-Esteban a.us. A. Spain b a r t i c l e i n f o Keywords: Time series Earthquakes forecasting Clustering a b s t r a c t Earthquakes arrive without previous warning and can destroy a whole city in a few seconds. University of Seville. chronologically ordered. This work is included in this context. 1 These authors equally contributed to this work. All rights reserved. randomly orientated or not well deﬁned.1. To avoid dependent data. they are used to predict the behavior of the system as accurately as possible. an areal source may be an area where the faults are too numerous.es (J. the aim is to ﬁnd temporal patterns and to model the behavior of time series that comprise the occurrence of medium– large earthquakes. University of Seville. fmaralv@upo. Note that a group of smaller shocks preceding or following a larger one is denoted earthquake clustering by seismologists.com/locate/eswa Pattern recognition to forecast seismic time series A. Results from the Spanish seismic temporal data provided by the Spanish Geographical Institute and non-parametric statistical tests are presented and discussed.eswa. the time series is said to be chaotic. Morales-Esteban).es (F.2010. ali@upo. However. Nowadays. Troncoso. Pablo de Olavide University of Seville. patterns are discovered when medium–large earthquakes happen. 1997). the application to earthquake occurrences as a crucial step of prediction has not been widely exploited. If. Troncoso). is determined. jlj@us. Riquelme. causing numerous deaths and economical losses. F. 2007).1016/j. 2007. E-mail addresses: ame@us. A seismogenic area is * Corresponding author. since events related to earthquakes are apparently unforeseen. However.es (A. seismogenic areas are used as a data source. Then. making the modeling and subsequent prediction possible. Assuming that the nature of the earthquakes time series is stochastic.L. Rubio-Escudero c a Department of Continuum Mechanics. a priori unknown.L.es (C. Ó 2010 Elsevier Ltd. Martínez-Álvarez b. Martínez-Álvarez). such as a fault. earthquakes are classiﬁed into different groups and the optimal number of groups. both aftershocks and foreshocks have been removed from the earthquakes time series analyzed (Kulhanek. The use of historic seismic data in earthquake forecasting is absolutely prevalent nowadays and there is a well-known working group for the development of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Model (RELM) that surged to design multiple models for hazard estimations (Field. The study of the past behavior of a variable may be extremely valuable to help to predict its future behavior. Spain c Department of Computer Science. a seismogenic area may include one or several tectonic structures and its geometry is based upon historical. or a set of parallel faults that are near and at a considerable distance from the site in which the earthquake is generated. An aftershock is deﬁned as a minor shock following the main shock of an earthquake and a foreshock as a minor tremor of the earth that precedes a larger earthquake originating at approximately the same location.1. The challenge of ﬁnding successful methods to forecast earthquakes has been faced for over 100 years (Geller. Introduction A time series is a sequence of values observed over time and.es (A. doi:10. given a set of past values. C. To be precise. which are considered events with a magnitude greater or equal to 4.

2000). this does not have an effect on this study as only the registers from 1978 onwards are used. which states that the provided forecasts using the plate tectonic theory are more accurate than those based on past samples. and García Blanco (2004). Jauregui. Kafka. Cluster analysis is the basis of many classiﬁcation algorithms that provide models of systems (Xu & Wunsch. because this is the completeness date of the seismic catalogue for magnitudes greater or equal to the cutoff magnitude (Ranalli. similar to the National Seismic Hazard Map Frankel et al.0. which produces unreliable magnitude estimates. Thus. Cao. similar to Kafka and Levin (2000). using amplitude and period of waves. López and Muñoz (2003) reviewed how the magnitudes that appear in the Spanish bulletins and catalogues were calculated by the different authors that proposed them. The second one converts the deformation or moment rate into rate of earthquakes by applying the Seismic Hazard Inferred from Tectonics hypothesis. data recorded before 1962 were calculated using the earthquakes duration and after 1962. for Southern California. Owing to the development of these formulas. and Falcone (2009) presented a short-term forecast model based on the propagation of aftershock sequences simulating the spreading of an epidemic. Location errors have been reduced from an average error of 25 km in 1964 to 3 km in 1996 (see Giner. The Pattern Informatics model (Holliday et al. 2007) forecasts the regions where earthquakes are most likely to occur in a near future (5 to 10 years) by discovering zones with a high seismic activity. Seismicity-based forecasting methods Many authors have proposed different methods to predict the occurrence of earthquakes. 2005). and Martín Martín (1999). The rest of the work is divided as follows. 2002). / Expert Systems with Applications 37 (2010) 8333–8342 clustering techniques used in this paper.8334 A. Once aftershocks and foreshocks have been removed from the catalogue. Jones. (2007) have obtained forecasts of earthquakes with magnitude greater or equal to 5. a decade concretely. Description of the Spanish seismic data The database used for this study is the catalogue of Spanish Geographical Institute (SGI). generally. and Kagan (2007). was based on smoothed seismicity and predicted earthquakes with magnitude greater or equal to 5. geodetic and stress-direction data into the model. and Rong (2007). Bird and Liu (2007) proposed a two-step process for estimating long-term average seismicity of any region. the previous earthquakes of minor magnitude were used to forecast those with major one. such as spatial and temporal occurrences of earthquakes with magnitude greater or equal to 4. & Delgado. (2002). The second model is similar to the one proposed in Shen.0. from the maximum train of the S-waves. Jackson. The second method used a hidden Markov model for making predictions for the next day. Bennet.0. Finally. the last one is based on earthquake simulations (Ward. and Baglivo (2007). and Meagher (1972) deﬁned a formula based on trace duration between the arrival of the P-wave and the S-wave end. Magnitude estimates in the earthquake catalogue are not homogeneous. The Spanish seismic database is described in Section 3. Rueda. and Wiemer (2007) developed a method to spatially map the probability of earthquake occurrences in 24 h based on foreshock/aftershock statistics. Jackson. For this aim. Section 2 introduces the methods used to predict the occurrence of earthquakes. 3. The ﬁrst one. the novelty of this work lies on discovering clustering-based patterns and the use of them as seismological precursor in Spanish temporal data. The ﬁrst step incorporates all plate tectonic. Console. The model in Rhoades (2007) performed forecasts for one year based on the notion that every earthquake is a precursor in accordance with the scale. which are one of the main goals of the Artiﬁcial Intelligence. Chambers. The work in Ward (2007) added ﬁve different models to the RELM. geologic. encouraged some authors such as Tsumura (1967) to develop formulas based on the duration of their signals. The third is based on fault data analysis. Molina. using isoseismic maps. Equally remarkable was the work in Shen et al. 2. the experimental results are shown in Section 6. based on the arrival time of the waves to the stations and a model of the crust.. The year 1978 has been determined as the year of completeness for Spanish seismic data in Justo Alpañés. because the calculation of the registers obtained before 1962 was carried out using a different procedure. The earthquake location has been found with the application HYPO 71. The fundamentals that support the theory exposed in this work are presented in Section 4. 2007) and considers the size distribution of recent micro-earthquakes to be the most relevant information for predicting events of magnitude greater or equal to 5. two forecasting methods were provided in Ebel. the difﬁculty in measuring the maximum amplitude for analog data. The estimate of magnitude based upon amplitude was obtained from Lg-wave registers or. these algorithms are focused on extracting useful information to ﬁnd patterns in data. Campbell. Another forecast of ﬁve-years was provided by the Asperitybased Likelihood Model (ALM). during the forecasting period was the same as the average of those variables over the past 70 years. deﬁned as the year from which all the earthquakes of magnitude equal or larger to M have been recorded. The ﬁrst method was based on the assumption that the average of several statistical variables. 1969). and Jackson (2007) have developed a time-independent forecast for California by smoothed seismicity. The SGI has produced weekly and monthly catalogues for the area between 35N to 44N and 10W to 5E. in which the authors developed a method based on geodetically observed strain rate averaged over a time period. In this sense. . which has calculated the location and magnitude of Spanish earthquakes.0 for ﬁve-years in Southern California. which assumes a Gutenberg–Richter distribution of events (Wiemer & Schorlemmer. Kagan et al. Finally. Carrasco. ﬁnally. Morales-Esteban et al. similar to the model presented in Kagan. Section 5 presents how the pattern recognition has been performed. The equation for this estimate was corrected using a selection of earthquakes. (2007). Kagan. Lee. The authors in Murru. The forecasts were based on spatially smoothed historical earthquake catalogue using the methodology described in Kagan and Jackson (1994). 2007) has presented the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast version 1 composed of four types of earthquake sources with distributed seismicity. The working group on California Earthquake Probability (Petersen. the ﬁrst step is to determine the year of completeness of the catalogue for each area. The procedure used for the location of earthquakes is described in Mezcua. & Frankel. due to technological advances. but including smaller events and removing aftershocks. The main aim of this analysis is to generate grouping of data from a large dataset with the intention of producing an accurate representation of the behavior of a system. However. The authors in Helmstetter. The location of the older earthquake epicenters has been found graphically. whose magnitude had been measured by the United States Coast and Geodetic Survey (USCGS). Gerstenberguer. Formerly. The fourth model is a combination of the ﬁrst three models and.

Morales-Esteban et al. 2006. A high value of the parameter implies that the number of earthquakes of small magnitude is predominant and. in order to estimate the b-value. Wiemer. Fundamentals This section exposes all the mathematical fundamentals that support the methodology applied. The studies of both Gibowitz (1974) and Wiemer et al. 4. This hypothesis is equivalent to suppose that the probability density of the magnitude M is exponential: f ðM. They found an increase in b-value after large earthquakes in New Zealand and a decrease before the next important aftershock. The b-value of the Gutenberg–Richter law is an important parameter. The maximum likelihood method. r2 ðMÞ ¼ Pn i¼1 ðM i MÞ2 n ð4Þ and n is the number of events and Mi the magnitude of a single event. The a-value is the logarithm of the number of earthquakes with magnitude greater or equal to zero. They also demonstrated that for large samples and low temporal variations of b. It is assumed that the magnitudes of the earthquakes that occur in a region and in a certain period of time are independent and identically distributed variables that follow the Gutenberg–Richter law (Ranalli. 2005). and Wyss (2005). 1) deﬁned by: NðMÞ ¼ aM B . Zollo. & Persson. 2006) and it has been related with the physical characteristics of the area. implying a higher resistance of the material. Shi and Bolt (1982) pointed out that the b-value can be obtained by this method but the presence of even a few large earthquakes has a signiﬁcative inﬂuence on the results. Gutenberg–Richter law Earthquake magnitude distribution has been observed from the beginning of the 20th Century. where: 4. Gutenberg–Richter law for the earthquakes (removing foreshocks and aftershocks) from the SGI database. a low value shows that the relative number of small and large events is similar. Gutenberg and Richter used the least squares method to estimate coefﬁcients in the frequency–magnitude relation from (2). Other authors Schorlemmer. Kulhanek. 2. (2002) on the variation of the b-value over time refer to aftershocks.2. the standard deviation of the estimated b is: ^ ¼ 2:30b2 rðMÞ. Gutenberg and Richter (1954) transformed this power law into a linear law (see Fig. of magnitude greater or equal to M follows a power law distribution (see Fig. & Iannaccone. b. the maximum likelihood method was applied to obtain a value for b. Thus. / Expert Systems with Applications 37 (2010) 8333–8342 4. appears as an alternative to the least squares method. First. 1969). ð5Þ where b¼ b logðeÞ ð6Þ and M0 is the cutoff magnitude. (2005) infer that the b-value is a stress meter that . rðbÞ ð3Þ Magnitude Fig. which produces estimates that are more robust when the number of infrequent large earthquakes changes. 2002).1. N. the Gutenberg–Richter law is described. hence. deﬁned by: b¼ 1 . 1. In general. they showed that the b-value tends to decrease when many earthquakes occur in a local area during a short period of time. The b-value is a parameter that reﬂects the tectonic of the area under analysis (Lee & Yang. Thus. Marzocchi. In Utsu (1965). It is important to know how the sequence of b-values has been obtained. On the other hand. before presenting conclusions about its variation. a previous estimation of b is necessary. the parameter used to perform predictions – the b-value – is introduced and its relevance as an earthquake indicator is discussed. a. the analysis of its variation has often been used in earthquake prediction (Nuannin. the region has a low resistance. bÞ ¼ b exp½bðM M0 Þ. The b-value as seismic precursor 1200 Number of earth quakes 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Magnitude Fig. because it reﬂects the tectonics and geophysical properties of the rocks and ﬂuid pressure variations in the region concerned (Lee & Yang. Then. Nuannin et al. 2) expressing this relation for the magnitude frequency distribution of earthquakes as: log10 ðNðMÞÞ ¼ a bM: ð2Þ This law relates the cumulative number of events N(M) with magnitude greater or equal to M with the seismic activity. the maximum likelihood method has been selected for the estimation of the b-value in this work. Gutenberg and Richter (1942) and Ishimoto and Iida (1939) observed that the number of earthquakes. From all the aforementioned possibilities. therefore. M M0 ð7Þ where M is the mean magnitude of all the earthquakes in the dataset. and the size distribution factor. Number of earthquakes against magnitude (removing foreshocks and aftershocks) from the SGI database. Capuano. Lomaz. ð1Þ where a and B are adjustment parameters.8335 A.

Consequently. Each earthquake is represented by three features: the magnitude. each sample is considered only by the label assigned by the K-means algorithm in further analysis. the smallest dissimilarity is chosen as follows: bðjÞ ¼ minfdisðxj .2. The selection of an optimal number of clusters is still an open task. Dtj ¼ t k t k4 . G2 . with k ¼ 5j: ð12Þ ð13Þ Finally. i. the aim is to minimize intra-cluster variance deﬁned as the following squared error function: V¼ K X X jxj li j2 . They state: ‘‘A systematic study of temporal changes in seismic b-values has shown that large earthquakes are often preceded by an intermediate-term increase in b. a simpler law with easier interpretation is provided. Nuannin et al. This similarity is measured with respect to the centroid of the objects that belong to the cluster. 8l 2 C m g. the ith earthquake is deﬁned by: Ei ¼ ðM i . . i. The algorithm gathers n objects into K sets and increases the intra-cluster similarity at the same time.Cm) and deﬁned by: disðxj . 5 i¼k4 with k ¼ 5j. xl Þ.1. the earthquakes dataset is constructed as follows. (2005). 5. .2 detail the K-means algorithm and the silhouette index. with the aim of classifying the samples into different groups. Morales-Esteban et al. . Furthermore. speciﬁc sequences of labels are searched as precursors of medium–large earthquakes. it can only be applied when the average of each cluster can be deﬁned. The average dissimilarity of xj to all the other objects included in Ci. Thus. / Expert Systems with Applications 37 (2010) 8333–8342 depends inversely on differential stress. Then. (2005) presented a very detailed analysis on b-value variations. ð16Þ i where d(. On the contrary. bi is the b-value associated to the earthquake and ti is the date in which the earthquake took place.) is a distance measure. subsequently. the K-means algorithm is applied to the dataset. Gj ¼ fEk4 . To consider variations in b-value. Gj ¼ ðMj . K-means is applied several times in order to avoid that local minima are found and to reduce the dependency to the initial centers of clusters which are randomly selected.Cm) for every m – i and. . although in some cases a small increase in this value precedes the shock. 1 illustrates that the number of earthquakes with magnitude greater or equal to three follows an exponential law allowing the application of the Gutenberg–Richter law from (5).8336 A. Analogously. . In this sense. the silhouette index (Kaufmann & Rousseeuw. the b-value was calculated for a group of ﬁfty events. Thus. First of all. Sammonds. Recently. ð15Þ i¼1 xj C i where K is the number of clusters. Then the window was shifted by a time corresponding to ﬁve events.. . Ek g with k ¼ 5j and j ¼ 1. From the earthquake catalogue. . Meredith.e. the b-value and the date of occurrence. C m Þ. is evaluated as follows: aðjÞ ¼ X 1 dðxi . the optimal number of clusters has to be determined since the K- means algorithm needs this number as input data. As a previous step. . a(j). . 5. For each cluster. the average dissimilarity of xj to all the objects belonging to Cm with m – i is called dis(xj. (2005). bN=5c. The b-value is determined from (6) and (7) considering the ﬁfty preceding events Nuannin et al. Ci is the cluster i. results could be unclear and confusing. DS. He studied the earthquakes in the Andaman–Sumatra region. Pattern recognition in seismic temporal data The methodology proposed in order to discover knowledge from earthquakes time series is described in this section. several approaches have been developed in order to determine this number (Hamerly & Elkan. bi . Dtj Þ. Dbj . the K-means algorithm can classify datasets containing quantitative features. sizeðC i Þ x 2C i with xi – xj . For this purpose. Thus. with m – i: ð17Þ The next step consists in evaluating the dis(xj. Hence. its centroid is used as the most representative point. ð8Þ where Mi is the magnitude of the earthquake. li is the centroid of the cluster i and xj is the j-th object to be clustered. ð9Þ where N is the number of earthquakes in the dataset and b N/5c is the greatest integer less than or equal to N/5. t i Þ. C m Þ ¼ minfdðxj . 1990) provides a measure of the separation of clusters and can be used as a general-purpose method to determine the number of clusters. The K-means algorithm is an efﬁcient and simple method especially useful when large datasets are handled and it converges extremely quick in most practical cases. 5.5. Yan & Ye. the time elapsed from the ﬁrst earthquake and the ﬁfth one and the signed variation of the b-values in this time interval. 2007) and its application has been shown to be useful in many engineering applications. followed by a decrease in the months to weeks before the earthquake. Let be an object xj that belongs to cluster Ci. ð10Þ where Mj ¼ k 1 X Mi . with k ¼ 5j. . the cutoff magnitude is set to three.e. and Main (1992) clariﬁes the stress changes in the fault and the variations of the b-value surrounding an important earthquake. In this work. . The centroid of a group of elements is the center of gravity of all the elements in the cluster. a sliding time-window method was used. data are grouped into sets of ﬁve chronologically ordered earthquakes according to the methodology proposed in Nuannin et al. Thus. The K-means algorithm The K-means algorithm was originally presented by Macqueen (1968). xj Þ. GbN=5c g: ð14Þ The goal is to ﬁnd patterns in data that precede the apparition of earthquakes with a magnitude greater or equal to 4. 2003. ð11Þ Db ¼ bk bk4 . They conclude that earthquakes are usually preceded by a large decrease in b. a well-known validity index – silhouette index – is applied over clustered data for different numbers of clusters.1 and 5. Selecting the optimal number of clusters The number of clusters selected to carry out classiﬁcation is one of the most critical decisions in clustering techniques. Therefore. Hence. DS ¼ fG1 .. The onset of the b-value can precede earthquake occurrence by as much as seven years”. Fig. Each group Gj is represented by the mean of the magnitude of the ﬁve-earthquakes. 8m – ig: ð18Þ . the dataset is composed by the temporal sequence of all Gj. Once these labels have been obtained. Sections 5. . Choosing a large number of clusters does not necessarily imply better classiﬁcations.

5 are much more frequent in the West of Azores–Gibraltar fault than in the Alboran Sea. clusters 1. It can be noted an excellent adjustment of the data to the chosen number of clusters as nearly no negative values appear and the negative values indicate earthquakes with wrong cluster assignment. 3 shows the epicenters of earthquakes localized in these 27 seismogenic areas from the year 1978. It can be observed that the optimal number of clusters is three since the index reaches the maximum value for three clusters in both areas. the maximum likelihood method has been used to obtain the b-value of the Gutenberg–Richter law.5 have been classiﬁed into cluster 1 and characterized. geological.0. Table 2 shows the values of the centroids of the obtained clusters by using the K-means algorithm and the percentage of earthquakes that belong to each cluster for seismogenic areas ] 26 and ]27. Cluster 1 presents a decrease of the b-value. to determine how well an object xj is clustered the following silhouette index is applied: silhðjÞ ¼ bðjÞ aðjÞ : maxfaðjÞ.24%. a measure of quality of the results is provided and a statistical analysis is carried out with the aim of determining if the results obtained by the clustering are signiﬁcative. 4 presents the mean of the silhouette index values versus the number of clusters for the seismogenic areas ] 26 and ]27. bðjÞg ð19Þ Its value ranges from 1 to +1. their epicenters are represented by black solid. for earthquakes with magnitude greater or equal to 5.05 obtained from (3). 6. At present. the seismogenic area ]27 presents a higher rate of large earthquakes with a b-value of 0. the catalogue is complete for earthquakes with magnitude greater or equal to 3. seismic and gravimetric data. 2 and 3 are the labels assigned to the different clusters.0 due to the year of completeness for the Spanish seismic data is the year 1978. Notice that the maximum values were equal to 0. consequently.03.7532 for the areas ]26 and ]27.14 determined from (6) and (7) and a standard deviation of 0.38% and 56.0 the epicenters are marked with white circles. the magnitude of the centroid of the cluster 1 is greater to that of the cluster 2. The samples include 4017 earthquakes.0 and 7. Analogously.89E-04 in area ] 27). all earthquakes with magnitude greater or equal to 4. 5 shows the values of the silhouette index for all earthquakes from dataset which have been clustered. Seismogenic area ]26 is characterized by moderate seismicity with a Gutenberg–Richter b-value of 1. Twenty-seven areas are enumerated in Table 1. 6. 2007). classiﬁed into 3 clusters along with the evolution of the b-value from the year 1978 to 2007. Once the earthquakes have been clustered. The best clustering is achieved when the average of silh(j) over the n objects to be classiﬁed is maximized. Table 1 Seismogenic areas of Spain and Portugal. In spite of the annual rate of earthquakes per square kilometer being similar in both areas (3. and that of the cluster 2 is greater to that of the cluster 3 for both areas. Morales-Esteban et al. Then. thus. cluster 2 an increment close to zero and. (2005).0 and less than 4. respectively). The cutoff magnitude is equal to three and the b-value is determined from (6) and (7) considering the ﬁfty preceding events Nuannin et al. Dataset The seismogenic areas used in this paper were established by Martín Martín (1989) according to tectonic. Notice that the majority of the earthquakes belong to the cluster one and three for the area ]26 (34. whose magnitude varies between 3. respectively. by an increment of the b-value negative. the clustering process is described showing how the number of clusters is selected. it can be observed that all the earthquakes of magnitude greater or equal to 4. leading to a great accuracy. cluster 3 an increase of the b-value. therefore. Data clustering results Fig.75E-04 in area ]26 and 3.1. Moreover. the proposed methodology has only been applied to the under-water seismogenic areas ]26 and ]27 (Alboran sea and Western Azores–Gibraltar fault. when it is greater or equal to 4. a high value indicates that the rocks of the area have low strength and. When the magnitude is greater or equal to 3. where +1 and 1 indicates points with adequate or questionable cluster assignment.0. Fig.6901 and 0. 6. events of magnitude greater or equal to 4. the datasets used are detailed as well as the estimation of the b-value over these data. All the earthquakes of the dataset with magnitude greater or equal to 4. b(j) represents the dissimilarity of xj to its nearest neighboring cluster. DS.70 ± 0. It is known that the b-value reﬂects the tectonics of the region under analysis (Lee & Yang. / Expert Systems with Applications 37 (2010) 8333–8342 Thus. respectively) because there are not enough data in the remaining areas to carry out such an analysis.2. With reference to the b-value. Experimental results The patterns obtained by the application of the K-means algorithm to the seismic temporal data are presented in this section. then silh(j) is not deﬁned and a conventional choice is to set silh(j) = 0. the values 1. Second. Moreover. and ﬁnally. First. 2 and 3 are characterized as follows. respectively. 6 and 7 present the earthquakes temporal data. during the 29 year period from the year 1978 to the year 2007. From Fig. Figs.5 are also represented by a black circle. ﬁnally. Fig. 6. For both seismogenic areas. 2006) and.0 the epicenters are represented by dots. the number of earthquakes with small magnitude is more frequent (Lowrie. If cluster Ci is a set containing a single member.0 and less than 5.5 (black circles) are preceded by . In short.A. Area Description ]1 ]2 ]3 ]4 ]5 ]6 ]7 ]8 ]9 ]10 ]11 ]12 ]13 ]14 ]15 ]16 ]17 ]18 ]19 ]20 ]21 ]22 ]23 ]24 ]25 ]26 ]27 Granada basin Penibetic area Area to the East of the Betic system Quaternary Guadix–Baza basin Area of moderate seismicity to the North of the Betic system Area of moderate seismicity including the Valencia basin Sub-betic area Tertiary basin in the Guadalquivir depression Algarve area South-Portuguese unit Ossa Morena tectonic unit Lower Tagus Basin West Portuguese fringe North Portugal West Galicia East Galicia Iberian mountain mass West of the Pyrenees Mountain range of the coast of Catalonia Eastern Pyrenees Southern Pyrenees North Pyrenees North–Eastern Pyrenees Eastern part of Azores–Gibraltar fault North Morocco and Gibraltar ﬁeld Alboran Sea Western Azores–Gibraltar fault 8337 Foreshocks and aftershocks have been removed and only the earthquakes located between 35N to 44N and 10W to 5E have been selected. Finally.

7 2 0.5 occur. / Expert Systems with Applications 37 (2010) 8333–8342 Fig. When the set of the preceding ﬁve-earthquakes was classiﬁed into cluster 3.4 0.5 0. Consequently.6 0. 0. . a decrease of the b-value is a precursor of earthquakes of magnitude greater or equal to 4. The change of the membership from cluster 3 to cluster 1 entails that the b-value decreases in a short time (from 1 to 2 months) nearby the occurrence of the shock (see Table 2). Zone 26 Zone 27 1 0.2 0. 5.6 Silhouette Value Fig. When an earthquake of magnitude greater or equal to 4.8 1 Silhouette Value Fig. preceded by a ﬁve-earthquake group that belongs to the cluster 1. occurred from the year 1993 to 1994.2 0.8 1 1 Cluster ﬁve-earthquake groups that belong to the cluster 3. 2 3 −0. Therefore. the mean magnitude of this set is low and the increment of the b-value is positive according to the Table 2. Seismogenic areas of Spain and Portugal.8 0.6 Cluster Mean silhouette values 0. Selection of the optimal number of clusters. This only earthquake can be considered a separately case or an outlier for this area. Silhouette index for three clusters in areas ]26 and ]27. 4.4 3 2 3 4 5 6 7 Number of clusters 8 9 10 0 0. it can be noted that the sequence of labels that characterize the earthquakes with magnitude greater or equal to 4.8338 A. Morales-Esteban et al.5 for this area is 3–1. the group of ﬁve-earthquakes including this large earthquake belongs to the cluster 1.4 0. 3.5 for the area ]26. except for one earthquake.2 0 0.

59 21. 1–12 and 1–13. three earthquakes with magnitude greater or equal to 4.28 0. the membership of ﬁve-earthquake groups to clusters changes from cluster 3 to 1 when a moderate–large earthquake occurs. 7. . Fig.5 for the area ]27 are 2–1. the preceding ﬁve-earthquake groups are not classiﬁed into the cluster 2 but into the cluster 3.091 0. Area Cluster M Db Dt Membership (%) ]26 ]1 ]2 ]3 3.38 56. Clustering of earthquakes for the West Azores–Gibraltar fault.24 ]27 ]1 ]2 ]3 3. / Expert Systems with Applications 37 (2010) 8333–8342 Table 2 Centroids of the clusters.140 0.16 34. 7. in contrast to what it happens in the 1–12 sequence. Around the year 2000. Clustering of earthquakes for the Alboran sea. Thus. This period is characterized by short time intervals in which ﬁve–earthquake groups change their membership from cluster 2 to 1. However.035 0.39 3. it can be stated that the seismogenic area ]27 follows a similar pattern to area ]26 until the year 2000. It can be observed that most of preceding earthquakes classiﬁed into cluster 1 are. Therefore. a period of great tectonic activity take place where many earthquakes of magnitude greater or equal to 4. in which the b-value is nearly constant and probably no important stress changes occur. However.5 classiﬁed into cluster 1 also appeared in the last quarter of the year 2006. at the same time. That is. the sequences that characterize the earthquakes with magnitude greater or equal to 4.028 0.38 9.028 0.16 0. preceded by earthquakes that belong to the cluster 2.A.33 0. Let be 1–12 the subset of earthquakes classiﬁed into the cluster 1 and preceded by earthquakes belonging to the cluster 1 that are preceded by earthquakes classiﬁed into the cluster 2. 6.83 0.5 are 8339 recorded. Moreover.99 3.62 43.013 +0.519 34. From Fig. This sequence is denoted by 1–13.56 3. a decrease of the b-value is considered a precursor of moderate–large earthquakes for this area due to the change of Fig.54 3.79 It can be observed that several ﬁve-earthquake groups with small magnitude are classiﬁed into the cluster 2. all earthquakes of magnitude greater or equal to 4. from cluster 1 to 2 and from cluster 1 to 1.5 (black circles) are classiﬁed into cluster 1 and most of them are preceded by ﬁve– earthquake groups that belong to the cluster 2 or 1 (sequences of labels 2–1 and 1–1).047 0. Morales-Esteban et al.005 +0.

the speciﬁcity reaches values greater than 80% and 90% for the areas #26 and #27. such as normality of data.05. However. 2–1. two well-known indices are provided. when a group of small earthquakes is classiﬁed into the cluster 3 or 2 and the b-value begins to decrease. Moreover. respectively. It can stated that most of Hits are represented by sequences of labels 3–1. 2–1 and 1–12 are 0.56. which has a similar ratio to the ones in sequences 3–1 and 2–1 (0.60 versus 0. respectively. while the FP makes reference to the apparition of any of the considered sequences. Thus.5 appear are properly discarded.5 when any of the considered sequences of labels are present.5 classiﬁed into each sequence and the total occurrences of such sequence. the probability of making a mistake rejecting the null hypothesis is 5%. since sensitivities of 90. Therefore.3.56 and 1. In this context. In this context.00% and 79. Therefore. True negatives (TN) and false positives (FP) refer to the situation in which no earthquakes occurred. it can be noticed that several earthquakes with small magnitude. the false negatives (FN) represent the number of cases in which a medium– large earthquake also occurs but no proposed sequences of labels are found. 9 and 7. For instance. respectively). the null hypothesis assumes that these magnitudes are equally likely to occur. The WRS is a standard non–parametric test for two independent samples based on data ranking and it has been chosen because the required conditions to apply parametric tests. In short. TP þ FN TN Specificity ¼ : FP þ TN Sensitivity ¼ ð20Þ ð21Þ Table 4 measures the quality of the results obtained from the earthquakes temporal data distribution shown in Table 3.11 0. Sequences Area #26 Cases 1–11 1–12 1–13 1–2 1–3 Area #27 Hits Cases Ratio Hits 7 1 4 1 16 1 0 0 0 0 3 6 1 14 2 3 7 3 0 0 0. are not satisﬁed. Furthermore. the sequences of labels 3–1. the level of signiﬁcance is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis being true. Therefore. Quality of the results All earthquakes with a magnitude greater or equal to 4. In addition. The level of signiﬁcance has been set to 0. 1–13 and 1–12 versus the remaining sequences of two clusters. the sensitivity quantiﬁes the Table 3 Distribution of earthquakes into different sequences. respectively. 1–13 and 1–12 is not representatively enough for both areas separately. respectively.00% 82.31% 90. Parameters Area #26 Area #27 TP FN FP TN 9 1 15 71 23 6 5 47 Sensitivity Speciﬁcity 90.40 1 0. These indices are deﬁned by the following equations: TP . True positives (TP) identify the occurrence of earthquakes with magnitude greater or equal to 4. 2–1. The obtained performance is considered relevant for geophysical data analysts as the occurrences of earthquakes present a high level of uncertainty.56% 79. occurring before the year 1995 with a longer period of time among them. cluster 2.56 0. 6. The last column makes reference to the existing ratio between the number of earthquakes with magnitude greater or equal to 4. this large earthquake will be classiﬁed into the cluster 1. A null hypothesis is an assumption about the population to be tested. the sequence 1–13 is also considered to be representative.5. 6.11 3–1 3–2 3–3 17 6 35 9 0 0 3 4 10 4 0 0 0. Table 3 provides the distribution of all earthquakes for different clusters taking into consideration the cluster in which the preceding earthquakes are classiﬁed. This hypothesis is accepted or rejected by the test according to the p-value. the samples are the maximum magnitudes of the groups of ﬁve-earthquakes classiﬁed into the cluster 1 for all sequences of clusters 3–1. It can be observed that the method obtains good levels of accuracy. / Expert Systems with Applications 37 (2010) 8333–8342 membership of preceding earthquakes from cluster 3 to 1 in the sequence 1–13 and from cluster 2 to 1 in the sequences 1–12 and 2–1 (see Table 2). When the p-value is lesser or greater than a certain level of signiﬁcance the hypothesis is rejected or accepted. the sequence of labels 2– 1 only appears twice in area #26 and the sequence 3–1 only appears three times in area #27.65 0 0 Total 96 10 77 29 grade of reliability of the method when real events take place while the speciﬁcity measures the reliability of the method when sequences of labels are discarded. Note that the ratio corresponding to the sequences 3–1. 2–1.5 in a near future is forecasted and furthermore. are classiﬁed into cluster 3 implying a large increase of the b-value. sequence of clusters 2–1 or sequence of clusters 3–1.60 0 0 2–1 2–2 2–3 2 2 5 0 0 0 14 16 4 9 2 1 0. Table 5 shows the p-values obtained by the application of the WRS test to the samples for seismogenic areas #26 and #27. 1–13 and 1–12 come from the same distribution with equal medians. For instance.65 and 0. 2–1 and 1–12 (13. when the level of signiﬁcance is 0. the TN denotes that no proposed sequences appear. The test has been applied to all possible two–sequence combinations. respectively). On the other hand. 2–1.65. but also those cases in which earthquakes with a magnitude lesser than 4. as it was stated in the previous section. the sensitivity and the speciﬁcity.31% are reached for areas #26 and #27.05 as it is considered a typical level of signiﬁcance in most of statistical tests. 0.8340 A.4. not only medium–large earthquakes are detected with a good reliability.5 are classiﬁed into cluster 1 and most of these earthquakes were preceded by others belonging to cluster 3. Morales-Esteban et al. The Hits columns identify those earthquakes that have magnitudes greater or equal to 4. The test has been applied to the joining of all samples from both areas #26 and #27 since the number of the earthquakes classiﬁed into some of the sequences 3–1. These values are the highest ones among that of all sequences except for the sequence 1–13. the occurrence of an earthquake with magnitude greater or equal to 4. 1–12 and 1–13 are now going to be studied in order to provide a measure of the quality of the obtained results in the previous subsection. where the number in brackets represents the number of occurrences of Table 4 Results performance. In short.38% . Statistical analysis The well-known Wilcoxon rank-sum (WRS) test is applied in order to show that the magnitude distributions of the earthquakes that belong to the sequences 3–1.

163–191..0 3. Overview of the working group for the development of regional earthquake likelihood models (RELM). M. 57–65. Seismological Research Letters. Long-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes. Some methods for classiﬁcation and analysis of multivariate observations. Bulletin Earthquake Research Institute. B. 7. 99(13).31% and 90. Seismicity of the Earth. (2006). 131(3). L. Journal of Geophysical Research.003 0. Geophysical Research Letters. Cambridge University Press. & Jackson. D. A testable ﬁve-year forecast of moderate and large earthquakes in Southern California based on smoothed seismicity. & Falcone.4 4. Learning the k in k-means. (2007). Technical Report 02-420. B. D.38% in area #27. 1–13 and 1–12 are signiﬁcant sequences to discover patterns as precursors of moderate– large earthquakes. Bennet. In Proceedings of International Conference on Earthquake Geotechnical Engineering (pp. (2002). 846–855. A. (2005). (2000). Results corresponding to the Spanish seismic temporal data provided by the Spanish Geographical Institute are reported. W. Y. J. 99–109. (2003). Seismological Research Letters. New Zealand. C.898 0. 2–1..365 0. C. Prague. Campbell..023 0.. Carrasco. L. J. Finding groups in data: An introduction to cluster analysis. Gutenberg.. Seismological Research Letters. R. 22. 32. A. C. (2007).. 2–1 and 1–12 are higher than those of other sequences (greater or equal to 4. 49–71 (in Spanish). 189–204. & Liu. J. 17. / Expert Systems with Applications 37 (2010) 8333–8342 Table 5 p-values for the WRS test. The seismogenetic zones and magnitude–frequency relationship of Andalusian region.. et al. Troncoso. J. Kagan.. Partitioning–clustering techniques applied to the electricity price time series. Pure and Applied Geophysics. Física de la Tierra. Helmstetter. 75(1). Short-term aftershock probabilities: Case studies in California.. United States Geological Survey. concretely) but these earthquakes have magnitudes specially high. Gibowitz. the sequences of clusters 3–1.005 0.4. (2002). C. Seismological Research Letters. D.. P. Console.7 Shifts 1 8341 each sequence of clusters for areas #26 and #27. project P07-TIC-02611 is acknowledged.002 1. & Meagher. C. Real time earthquake forecasting in Italy. Lee. Does the spatial distribution of smaller earthquakes delineate areas where larger earthquakes are likely to occur? Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. R.. E.. A. T. A. 2–1..001 0. Annali di Geoﬁsica.. M. F. Nuannin.168 1. Wheeler. K. R.. Historical seismicity of Korea. Y. 1–13 and 1–12. Nevertheless. F. 66–77. J. Cao. H.035 0. Haller. Macqueen. Kagan. G. Rueda. H. Y. K. K. L. L. 3–2 and 3–3 have a distribution different to those of the sequences 3–1..000 0.867 0. Gerstenberguer. Tectonophysics. D.8 4. F.376 0. United States Geological Survey.000 0. Bird. Seismological Research Letters. Jones.56% in area #26 and 79. Petersen. according to their magnitude. In short.003 0. (2007).. M.013 0. A method of estimating magnitude of local earthquakes from signal duration.5 that are classiﬁed in this sequence is low regarding the total occurrences of this sequence (a ratio of 0. S. 235–244. Earthquake magnitude. Conclusions In this paper a pattern recognition based on K-means algorithm is proposed to forecast earthquakes with magnitude greater or equal to 4. & Richter.134 0. B. A. D. 78(1). Frankel. 78–86. S. Y.05. & Persson. D. Murru. (1942). The last column provides the mean of the samples corresponding to each sequence of clusters.4 4. R. O. Tiempo..A.05 and 0 in many cases.000 0. Department of Geophysics. 359–397. Acknowledgements The ﬁnancial support given by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology..6 3. 37–48.000 0. Morales-Esteban et al. S. J. J. Lowrie.365 0. High-resolution timeindependent grid-based forecast for M = 5 earthquakes in California. S. E. 283–297... Chambers.. Technical Report 72-223. Tectonophysics. A new methodology for decreasing uncertainties in the seismic hazard assesment results by using sensitivity analysis. 7–16.6 4.. Field. respectively. Petersen. 175–179).... J. (1999). Giner.814 0. The null hypothesis cannot be either rejected for the sample corresponding to the sequence 1–11 since the values provided by the WRS test are higher than 0. & Wiemer. M. (2007). Ranalli.. the null hypothesis cannot be rejected and the distributions of earthquakes that belong to these sequences are the same. Kagan. Technical report. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and damage assessment in Andalusia (Spain). B. W.002 4. Mezcua. It can be noticed that the average magnitudes of the earthquakes classiﬁed into the sequences of clusters 3–1. P. Observations sur les seismes enregistres par le microsismographe construit derniereme. A RELM earthquake forecast based on pattern informatics. 78(1). & Rong. Seminar on b-value.. the p-values obtained for the samples of the sequences 3–1. Chen. C. L. C. Ebel. (1990). (1939). (2007). M.000 4. D. particularly when the uncertainty of earthquakes occurrences is taken into account.. J. P. R. V.005 0. Gutenberg.05. & Baglivo. intensity. Thus.. Mueller. L. Seismological Research Letters. & Muñoz.000 0. this parameter can be considered a seismic precursor for the Spanish seismic data.219 1. Non-poissonian earthquake clustering and the hidden Markov model as bases for earthquake forecasting in California. Justo Alpañés. Riquelme. Seismological Research Letters. Kulhanek.363 0. An application to sites in Eastern Spain. M. In Lecture Notes in Computer Science (pp. Tectonophysics. 78(1). & Yang. Therefore. & Delgado. (2007). Martínez-Álvarez. F. yielding a sensitivity and a speciﬁcity which are 90.000 0. 32(3). A. A. Lee. very close to the considered threshold. leading to a mean magnitude equal to 4. 1–3.648 0. Riquelme. Time-independent and time-dependent seismic hazard assessment for the state of California: Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast model 1. 470(3–4)... (2007). R. Y.000 4.004 0. 167.376 0. & Frankel. & Martín Martín.8 3. 425–450. L. The null hypothesis for the remaining sequences is rejected since the p-values are lesser than 0. (2003). Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. A statistical study of aftershock sequences. J. Rundle. K. (1997)... Holliday. M. (1968). Z. Kafka.000 0. Seismological Research Letters.390 0. J. A.000 0. D. L. 685–700. & Donnellan. In Proceedings of the 5th Berkeley symposium on mathematical statistics and probability (pp. J. Geller. & Levin. C. 87–93. 1271–1288.507 0..000 0. J. all medium–large earthquakes have been characterized by a decrement of the b-value. This means that the magnitudes of the earthquakes classiﬁed into sequences of clusters 1–2.000 0. 78(1). It can be stated that the K-means approach has a good performance.000 0. 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