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7/17/2016

The End of Power - Reason.com

The End of Power
How wealth, health, cheap flights, and prepaid phone cards are undermining
authority across the globe
Moisés Naím | Apr. 14, 2013 1:00 pm
Power is shifting—from large, stable armies to loose bands of insurgents, from corporate leviathans
to nimble start-ups, from presidential palaces to public squares. It has become harder to wield
power and easier to lose it, and the world is becoming less predictable as a result. As people become
more prosperous and mobile, they are harder to control and more apt to question authority. 
Insurgents, fringe political parties, innovative start-ups, hackers, loosely organized activists, upstart
citizen media outlets, leaderless young people in city squares, and charismatic individuals who seem
to have “come from nowhere” are shaking up the old order. These are the micropowers: small,
unknown, or once-negligible actors who have found ways to undermine, fence in, or thwart the
megaplayers. Navies and police forces, television networks, traditional political parties, large banks
—the large bureaucratic organizations that previously controlled their fields—are seeing their
authority undermined.
Micropowers should be aberrations. Because they lack scale, coordination, resources, and a preexisting reputation, they should not even make it into the game, or at least they should be quickly
squashed or absorbed by a dominant rival. But the reverse is increasingly true: The micropowers are
beating the megaplayers. 
Javier Solana, the former Spanish foreign minister, secretary general of the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization, and European Union foreign policy chief, once told me: “Over the last quarter-century
—a period that included the Balkans and Iraq and negotiations with Iran, the Israeli-Palestinian
issues and numerous other crises—I saw how multiple new forces and factors constrained even the
richest and most technologically advanced powers. They—and by that I mean we—could rarely do
any longer what we wanted.”
The end of the Cold War and the birth of the Internet helped enable the rise of today’s micropowers,
but they were by no means the only important factors. We need to look at deeper transformations in
how, where, how long, and how well we live. These changes can be usefully imagined in three
categories: the More Revolution, the Mobility Revolution, and the Mentality Revolution. The first is
swamping the barriers to power, the second is circumventing them, and the third is undercutting
them. 
The More Revolution
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The world’s economic output has increased fivefold since 1950.com/archives/2013/04/14/the-end-of-power/print 2/9 . for mineralrich as well as mineral-poor countries. repression. poverty fell for both landlocked as well as coastal countries.” According to the World Bank. The World Bank reckons that since 2006. countries.  Despite the global financial crisis. Income per capita is three and a half times greater than it was then.” Since 2000 child mortality has decreased by more than 17 percent worldwide. and more companies selling them. cities. Decade. The world is expected to reach the Millennium Development Goals on poverty set in 2000 by the United Nations much earlier than originally anticipated. Without diminishing the urgency or the human and planetary toll of these crises. that impressive feat was achieved five years early. “In particular. there are more people—2 billion more than there were just two decades ago. In developing countries. experienced reductions in poverty. the number of people in the “undernourished” category decreased from 34 percent in 1970 to 17 percent in 2008. in 2010. and environmental threats. more students and more computers.com Ours is an age of profusion.7/17/2016 The End of Power . India. and child deaths from measles dropped by 60 percent between 1999 and 2005. we can assert that the first decade of the 21st century was arguably humanity’s most successful: As the Center for Global Development scholar Charles Kenny put it. The share of Asians living in extreme poverty dropped from 77 percent in the 1980s to 14 percent in 1998. By 2050 the world’s population will be four times larger than it was a century before.  The economists Maxim Pinkovskiy of MIT and Xavier Sala-i-Martin of Columbia University have shown that between 1970 and 2006 poverty in Africa declined much faster than generally recognized. This sort of progress is happening not only in China. and other successful emerging markets but also in the poorest countries of Africa. political parties. this progress is even more surprising. and for countries with below. Brazil. More goods and services. and armies. There are more people. between 2005 and 2008. for countries with favorable or with unfavorable agriculture. including those with disadvantageous geography and history. One of the most audacious goals back then was to cut the world’s extreme poverty in half by 2015. the proportion of people living in extreme poverty (those with incomes under $1. Given that the decade was marked by the onset of the deepest economic crisis since the Great Depression of 1929. Most important. more preachers and more criminals. earthquakes.25 a day) plunged.or above-median slave exports per capita during the African slave trade.Reason. civil wars. for countries regardless of colonial origin.” they write in a 2010 paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research. That trend began three decades ago. natural disasters. more weapons and more medicines. terrorism. 28 formerly “low-income countries” have joined the ranks https://reason. for example. The More Revolution has progressed in the face of economic recession. “Best. from sub-Saharan Africa to Latin America and from Asia to Eastern Europe. “All classes of countries. Ever. 660 million Chinese have escaped poverty since 1981. the economies of poorer countries continued to expand and create jobs.

billions of people who until recently lived with almost nothing now have more food. and functioning at ever-greater levels of ability. Even “rare earths”—the 17 scarce elements used in the manufacture of cellphones and in fuel refining—are not so rare anymore. or believers—are more numerous. but their members now enjoy an unprecedented standard of living. let alone dominate. education. When the people in that territory—whether potential soldiers.  The Mobility Revolution https://reason. a marketplace.com/archives/2013/04/14/the-end-of-power/print 3/9 . to the rise of a politically active middle class. standards of living have risen everywhere in the world since 1970. It’s no coincidence that the Arab Spring started in Tunisia. the ability to impose and retain control over a country. the Arab Spring and other recent social movements have made spectacular use of modern technologies. and to putting into perspective more fashionable explanations of current events. the North African country with the best economic performance and the most success in lifting its poor into the middle class. Life expectancy in countries hardest hit by the HIV/AIDS pandemic is starting to rise again. competitors.com of “middle-income” ones. is crucial to understanding today’s shifts and redistributions of power. These new middle classes may not be as prosperous as their counterparts in developed countries. But they owe even more to the rapid rise in life expectancy in the Middle East and North Africa since 1980. yet have no jobs or good prospects. fundamentally. told me: “The size of the global middle class has doubled from about 1 billion in 1980 to 2 billion in 2012. they become more difficult to regiment and control. Meanwhile. which combines health. with a long life span ahead of them. And we are providing for our agricultural needs better than ever: Since 2000 cereal production in the developing world has increased twice as fast as population. to the “youth bulge” made up of millions of people under 30 who are educated and healthy. a population of adherents.7/17/2016 The End of Power .” The world’s socioeconomic landscape has changed drastically during recent decades: 84 percent of the world’s population is now literate. and longer lives than ever before.Reason. The Brookings Institution’s Homi Kharas. they become more difficult to coordinate and control. and income indicators to give a global measure of well-being. and. According to the United Nations Human Development Index. workers. compared to 75 percent in 1990. customers. When people are more numerous and living fuller lives. a constituency. in fuller possession of their means. and so on. of course.  The overall picture of humanity living longer and healthier lives. as new sources and producers enter the market. The exercise of power in any realm involves. This segment of society is still growing very fast and could reach 3 billion by 2020. with basic needs far better addressed than ever. Yes. more opportunities. one of the most respected researchers on the subject. a network of trade routes. combat deaths are down by more than 40 percent since 2000. Average scores on intelligence tests all over the world are now higher. voters. Simply put.

In short. Political parties. The same thing is happening in Europe. or carried home $449 billion in 2010. in effect. An interesting case in point: In 2007 a Nigerian-born man was elected in Portlaoise. more people lived in cities than in rural areas.com Not only are there more people today. and continue to move. and other institutions increasingly face competitors that have deeper roots and a better understanding of this new population. and cultures of the countries in which they settle. More people have moved. The number of migrants during that period grew by 41 percent in Europe and 80 percent in North America. an increase of 37 percent during the last two decades. workers who live outside their home country. which attract them with visions of a better life. mailed. and professional diasporas or through individual vectors of ideas. particularly in Asia. living fuller and healthier lives. as governments have proven unable to stem the tide of immigrants from Africa. National Intelligence Council reckons that “every year 65 million people are added to the world’s urban population. In 2007. promoting economic growth and development. making them harder to manage. they wired. Ireland. Perhaps the most aggressively power-transforming aspect of the Mobility Revolution is urbanization. or other.  Immigrants send billions of dollars in remittances to their home countries every year. In the United States.Reason. This well-known “brain drain” deprives nations of nurses.  Immigrants are changing the businesses. whether through the rise of ethnic. religions. remittances have become the biggest source of hard currency and. as that country’s first black mayor. less wealthy.7/17/2016 The End of Power . from farms to cities than ever before. equivalent to adding seven cities the size of Chicago or five the size of London annually.com/archives/2013/04/14/the-end-of-power/print 4/9 . https://reason. 40 percent of the population is Arab-American. (In 1980 remittances totaled less than one-fourth of that in inflation-adjusted dollars. Michigan. engineers. businesses. send more money to their country than foreign investors and more than rich countries send as financial aid.” Internal migration—especially population shifts from farms to cities—can be as disruptive to power as international migration. In Dearborn. one of every six Americans is now Hispanic. The United Nations estimates that there are 214 million migrants across the globe. religious.S. For many countries. the world headquarters for the Ford Motor Company.  A newer form of mobility is also reshaping the landscape of power: brain circulation. they also move around a lot more. a commuter town west of Dublin. who are often very poor themselves. capital. Asia. The U.) Nowadays. for the first time in history. This trend changes the distribution of power within and among populations. the Hispanic population grew from 22 million in 1990 to 51 million in 2011. politicians. Worldwide. and faiths that can be either destabilizing or empowering. European countries. the largest sector of the economy. remittances are more than five times larger than the world’s total foreign aid and larger than the annual total flow of foreign investment to poor countries. Such enclaves are bound to transform coalitions and voting patterns as well as business strategies and even religious competition. Poor nations tend to lose many of their skilled and better-educated citizens to richer countries.

by 2010 they had risen to 56 percent. Total exports of goods and services in that period jumped from $7. from $6. The stock of foreign direct investment measured as a percentage of the world’s economy jumped from 6. the dynamic. more than half of whom access the social network via mobile phones and tablets. starting up companies and eventually either moving back or traveling frequently between their old and new countries. money. the number of mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 people was 0.5 trillion to $12. dean of the School of Information at the University of California. has found that Taiwanese. The International Telecommunications Union reports that in 2012 subscriptions to mobile telephony exceeded 6 billion—equivalent to an astonishing 87 percent of the world’s population. Somalia epitomizes the concept of “failed states. services. Inevitably.9 trillion to $18.  We should consider the impact of another tool that does not get the credit it deserves for changing https://reason.1 percent of the world’s population. In 1990 the number of Internet users was insignificant—a mere 0. and Chinese immigrants who worked in California’s Silicon Valley often became “angel investors” and “venture capitalists” in their old countries. they transfer the culture.2. and disruptive business culture common in entrepreneurial hubs clashes with the monopolistic and traditional ways of doing business often found in developing countries.  These migrations are occurring in the context of a vast increase in the movement of goods. competitive. according to the International Monetary Fund. and politics.com/archives/2013/04/14/the-end-of-power/print 5/9 . the media. Berkeley. entrepreneurs. The trade in goods was barely slowed by the recession that started in 2008. That number rose to 30 percent by 2010 (and to more than 73 percent in developed countries).com scientists. the total value of merchandise traded across borders nearly doubled. In 1990 the world’s total exports and imports amounted to 39 percent of the global economy.7/17/2016 The End of Power . In the latter year. In so doing. Yet even there. Indian. Israeli. and techniques they learned in the United States.5 percent in 1980 to a whopping 30 percent in 2010. while the volume of currency that moved internationally every day grew sevenfold between 1995 and 2010. increasing numbers of these professionals have been returning to their countries of origin and upending business as usual in industries. information. more than $4 trillion changed hands across international borders each day.7 trillion.  Money also has become more mobile.” societies in which citizens lack access to basic services that most of us take for granted. approaches. 21st-century mobile telephony is widely available. In recent years.Reason. and other professionals who are expensive to train. universities. By 2013 nine-year-old Facebook had nearly 1 billion users.5 trillion (in current dollars). according to the United Nations. The ability to move information around has expanded even faster. By 2010 it had exploded to more than 78. and ideas. however.  AnnaLee Saxenian. In 1990 across the globe. And between 2000 and 2009.

are now global. some in their 80s or even 90s.  The two characteristics shared by all of these mobility-enhancing technologies are the speed and extent of the drop in costs of moving goods. and personal fulfillment than they do. in particular. They affect rich and poor countries alike. and information.com/archives/2013/04/14/the-end-of-power/print 6/9 . These new members of the global middle class hope and expect to catch up. the overwhelming majority of the world’s population lives in what could now be called rapidly changing societies. and fast-growing middle class whose members are well aware that others have even more prosperity. and the discontent they breed among those left behind. In India. Mature adults are leaving the arranged marriages into which https://reason. But when borders become porous. This is a new mind-set—a change in mentality—that has profound consequences for power. money. Mobile phone platforms through which money can be transferred from one cellphone to another will soon make remittances almost cost-free. from the rise of a fashion industry aimed at hijabi (veiled or covered) women to the spread of no-interest banking in Western countries that have large Muslim immigrant communities. today the charge is less than 6 percent. entrenched organizations have a harder time retaining their dominance.  The Muslim world is a rich source of examples of how the Mentality Revolution is transforming long-held traditions. Prepaid cellphones have displaced those that require a long-term subscription and bind the user to a service provider through an elaborate contract. freedom. parishioners. they have little choice but to consent to the terms of the institutions they face.  The Mentality Revolution The More and Mobility Revolutions have created a new.  The Mobility Revolution has had a profound effect. Airline tickets that used to cost thousands of dollars 20 or 30 years ago can now be had at a fraction of the cost.com the world: the prepaid phone card. or customers have few or no alternatives. The growth of calling-card usage leaves the Internet’s growth in the dust. were discouraged from remarrying—now has an increasingly robust matrimonial advertising industry devoted to listings by divorced senior citizens. Now prepaid calling cards are giving way to prepaid mobile phones.Reason. These expectations. seeking love late in life and without embarrassment. workers. indeed. The embattled middle classes take to the streets and fight to protect their living standards while the expanding middle classes protest to get more and better goods and services. and the governed—or controlled—population becomes more mobile. Wiring money from California to Mexico in the late 1990s cost about 15 percent of the transferred sum. voters. people. vast. In situations where citizens. Transporting a ton of cargo today costs one-tenth what it did in the 1950s. investors. The less-well-off who choose to leave home for opportunities further afield no longer face as stark a choice between staying close to their families and improving their fortunes.7/17/2016 The End of Power . A country where divorce was once considered shameful—and women. Power needs a captive audience. the transformation in attitudes is spreading back from the young generation to their elders.

Closer to the mark is a recent survey by India’s Associated Chambers of Commerce finding that young working married women in Indian cities are increasingly choosing to put off having children in favor of developing their careers. biometric identification documents. and Mentality Revolutions challenge the traditional model of power.com/archives/2013/04/14/the-end-of-power/print 7/9 . As the three revolutions continue to progress. changes in family structure. In that model.7/17/2016 The End of Power . the rise of new industries and opportunities. Young. the greater our aspirations. WVS Director Ronald Inglehart and several of his co-authors have documented profound changes in attitudes concerning gender differences. and sex is recreation. aspirations to succeed in an Indian social and economic context while sublimating their cultural identities with fake accents and names. fences. government. but their effect has been most important at the level of attitudes. the spread of English as a global lingua franca—these have had consequences in every sphere of modern life. leading to lasting behavioral changes that are upending cultural norms. educated Indians who belong to the country’s burgeoning middle class have flocked to work at urban call centers and other business-process outsourcing companies. containing 85 percent of the world’s population. Global public opinion surveys provide a clearer picture of the extent and velocity of these attitudinal changes.  For young urban Indian women in particular. Although the jobs pay relatively well. One of their key findings is a growing global consensus regarding the importance of individual autonomy and gender equality.  Globalization.” as an article in the India Times put it in 2004. along with a corresponding popular intolerance for authoritarianism. and globalization. which in 2011 generated $59 billion in revenue and directly and indirectly employed almost 10 million Indians. centralized. and dealing with abuse and exploitation at the hands of affluent customers a continent away. Since 1990 the World Values Survey (WVS) has been tracking changes in people’s attitudes in more than 80 countries.Reason. Walls. love is a favourite pastime. One of the best examples of all three revolutions working simultaneously is the Indian outsourcing industry. border controls. coordinated organizations deploy overwhelming resources and crushing force to obtain and retain power. large. the jobs have provided opportunities and economic benefits they might not otherwise have had. religion.  The inability of the United States or the European Union to curb illegal immigration or illicit trade is a good example. organizations that rely on coercion face ever-increasing costs simply to maintain market share and patrol their boundaries. Mobility. detention https://reason. Revolutionary Consequences The More. they plunge young Indians into a welter of contradictions and competing aspirations—that is. The more contact we have with one another. Never mind the lurid newspaper articles about call centers as “a part of India where freedom knows no bounds.com they were inducted when they were teens or young adults. urbanization.

plutocrats. economics. Large organizations were more efficient because they operated with lower costs.com/archives/2013/04/14/the-end-of-power/print 8/9 . however. But the decay of power drives unwelcome trends as well: the inability to contain carbon emissions. The United States has failed utterly to curb the inflow of drugs from Latin America despite a longstanding and enormously expensive interdiction effort. and lost drive many of the trends that are changing the world.com centers. reach a reasonable political deal about the budgetary choices of the American government. or the sciences. tyrants and tycoons who are now less secure in their dominant position.7/17/2016 The End of Power . and promises of rewards in the form of constituent services and jobs. corporate behemoths. advertising. even as they slowly lose market share. Today. The big. the world’s lower classes become less dependent on their inherited belief systems and more open to experimentation. and the leaders of the great religions will continue to be the defining factors in the lives of billions of people. The Mentality Revolution breeds increasing skepticism of the political system in general. and they are attacking it precisely at the points where it once drew strength. and more active in seeking change and asserting their rights. such as advertising campaigns or political patronage. established players are fighting back.  By no means is big power dead. share support. and in many cases are still prevailing. But as their material comforts increase and they gain access to more alternatives. The Mobility Revolution is making the demographics of the constituency more diverse. used. Some of these trends are welcome and worthy of celebration: more competition in business. Consider the crisis of the Catholic Church. Imagine a political candidate or party trying to drum up votes through a combination of messages. grit. fragmented. the costs of maintaining order and control are going up. But these megaplayers are more constrained in what they can do than they used to be. more prone to scrutinize authorities’ behavior.  Power exercised through code or moral obligation also faces challenges as the three revolutions advance. and their hold on power is less secure. Dictators. and volatile. asylum hearings. deportations—these are just part of an apparatus of prevention and repression that has thus far proven to be extremely expensive and largely futile. which is having more and more difficulty recruiting priests who accept the vow of celibacy and competing with small evangelical churches that can tailor their messages to the culture and concrete needs of specific communities. is also challenged by the three revolutions.Reason.  The profound changes in the way power is gained.  Power that operates through persuasion. thanks to economies of scale. and other fields. Traditions embedded in family or tightly knit communities help people who live short lives marked by disease and poverty to cope. police raids. Mobility. more meritocracy and opportunity for those with talent. and Mentality Revolutions are attacking the model of organization so persuasively advocated by Max Weber and his followers in sociology. and ambition.  The More. politics. The More Revolution is creating better-educated and better-informed pools of constituents who are less likely to passively accept government decisions. and accept harsh realities. the failure to https://reason.

and physics will inevitably drastically transform the way we govern ourselves. undermine. https://reason. In the next decade or so. dilution. Many democratic countries are overdosing on checks and balances and the resulting gridlock. Available from Basic Books.com/archives/2013/04/14/the-end-of-power/print 9/9 . We have entered an era where many players have just enough power to veto. Why Being in Charge Isn't What It Used to Be by Moisés Naím.Reason. the wave of innovation that has revolutionized communications. an imprint of the Perseus Book Group. medicine.7/17/2016 The End of Power . This can and will change. or dilute the initiatives of others but no single player has enough unconstrained power to push through an agenda. Copyright ©2012. and Europe’s economic catastrophe. and delays in governmental decision-making have become dangerously common.   Reprinted from The End of Power: From Boardrooms to Battlefields and Churches to States.com stop the carnage in Syria.