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CARRYING CAPACITY

STUDY
Update To City Council
July 28, 2015

City of Tybee Island

SCOPE OF WORK
Technical Advisory Group
Community Resources Inventory & Assessment
Analysis of Community Resources Limitations
Recommendations & Implementation Plan
Coordination with Comprehensive Plan Process
Scheduled to be completed in October 2016

PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT
Technical Advisory Group 3 Meetings
Comprehensive Plan Joint Meetings 4 Meetings
Infrastructure/Staff Meeting 1 Meeting
Future Meetings:
Technical Advisory Group
Planning & Zoning Commission
City Council

HUMAN APPLICATION OF CARRYING CAPACITY


I=PxAxT
I = Environmental Impact
P = Population
A = Affluence
T = Technology
Human carrying capacity is not strictly related to population size, but to many levels of consumption,
which are in turn impacted by technology and the economy.
Local governments have the opportunity to opportunity to impact these variables through regulatory
and policy choices related to land use, infrastructure improvements, growth management, and the local
economy.
Wave Ecology and Highway 80 Challenge Study 2011

CARRYING CAPACITY COMMUNITY RESOURCES


INVENTORY AND DATA ASSESSMENT
Population
Water Withdrawal
Wastewater Discharge
Traffic Counts & Parking
Short Term Rental Units
Zoning
Solid Waste
Flooding/Sea Level Rise

Daytime
Population
Overnight
Population

Resident
Population

POPULATION

TYBEE POPULATION - RESIDENT


Census Comps for
Population

2000

2010

Percent
Change

Population

3,392

2,990

-11.85%

Census

Pop.

% Change

1900

381

1910

786

106.3%

1920

117

85.1%

1930

202

72.6%

4000

1940

644

218.8%

3500

1950

1,036

60.9%

3000

1960

1,385

33.7%

2500

1970

1,786

29.0%

2000

1980

2,240

25.4%

1500

1990

2,842

26.9%

2000

3,392

19.4%

2010

2,990

11.9%

Est. 2014

3,082

3.1%

HISTORICAL POPULATION
Population Trend

1000
500
0

HOUSING UNITS CENSUS


Census Data for Housing
Units
Total Housing Units
Occupied Housing Units

2000

Percent
2000

2,696

--

Vacant Housing Units

Percent
Change

3,366

--

24.85%

1,568 58.20% 1,360 40.40%

Owner-Occupied 1,078 40.00%


Long Term Renter-Occupied

2010

Percent
2010

-13.27%

918

27.30%

-14.84%

442

13.10%

-9.80%

1,128 41.80% 2,006 59.60%

77.84%

490

18.20%

SHORT TERM RENTAL UNITS


Rental Unit
Type

Number of
Units

Average Persons Maximum Rental


Per Unit
Population

Hotel

420

840

House

1,200

6,000

118

2.6

304

Campground
Total

1,738

7,146*

* Tybee Tourism Study estimates 4.3 people per unit, which equals a maximum short term rental
population of 7,473

SHORT TERM RENTAL POPULATION


Rental Unit Type
Number of Units
Average Persons Per Rental
Occupancy
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual Average

22%
31%
62%
70%
64%
91%
96%
74%
57%
52%
33%
24%

Hotel Unit
420
2.5
Hotel Unit Rental
Population
231
329
649
735
674
952
1011
773
595
545
346
253

House/Condo
1200
5
House/Condo Unit
Rental Population
1,319
1,883
3,711
4,200
3,851
5,438
5,780
4,419
3,401
3,114
1,976
1,443

56%

591

3,378

Campground
Total Short Term
Rental Population
118
2.6
Campground Rental
Population
67
1,617
96
2,308
190
4,550
215
5,150
197
4,721
278
6,667
296
7,086
226
5,418
174
4,169
159
3,818
101
2,422
74
1,769
173

4,141

SECOND HOME POPULATION


Total number of vacant units per the 2010 Census

2,006

Total number of vacation rental units per Tybee Island

1,200

Number of remaining units, i.e. Potential Second Home


Units
Average number of guests per second home unit

806

Maximum second home population

5
4,030

TRAFFIC COUNTS
Total Trips
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0

Month Average

Weekend Day Average

Peak Day

TRAFFIC COUNTS & DAYTIME POPULATION

Daily Average
Peak Day (July 2015)

On-Island
Trips

Daytime
Population

6,726

13,452

14,233

28,466

Metric

Population

Resident Population

3,082

Annual Average Overnight Population1

7,223

Annual Average Daytime Population

13,453

Maximum Overnight Population2

14,198

Peak Daytime Population


not account for Second Home Population
2Short Term Rental + Second Home Population

28,466

1Does

POPULATION

Daytime
Ave. 13,453
Peak 28,466
Overnight
Ave. 7,223

Max 14,198

Resident
3,082

0
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14

WATER WITHDRAWAL
Daily Average and Maximum Water Withdrawal per Month

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

Daily Average
Daily Max
Daily Ave. Permit Limit

WATER WITHDRAWAL
Annual Daily Average
0.86
0.84
0.82
Annual Daily Average

0.8

Linear (Annual Daily Average)

0.78
0.76
0.74

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

WATER WITHDRAWAL FUTURE PERMIT LIMITS


Annual Daily Average and Permit Limitations
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0

2010

2011
Annual Daily Average

2012
2015 Permit Limit

2013
2025 Permit Limit

2014

FUTURE WATER WITHDRAWAL DEMAND


Population
Peak Demand (Maximum Overnight
Population)
*Per Capita Water Demand 115 GPD

14,198

Daily Water
Usage
1,632,770

Flow Average
Flow Ave. Permit Limit
Flow Maximum
Flow Max Permit Limit

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Nov-14

Oct-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Jun-14

May-14

Apr-14

Mar-14

Feb-14

Jan-14

Dec-13

Nov-13

Oct-13

Sep-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

WASTEWATER DISCHARGE
Wastewater Discharge Flow (MGD)

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

WASTEWATER DISCHARGE
TSS (mg/L)
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

Average

Maximum

Permitted Monthly Average

Permitted Maximum

WASTEWATER DISCHARGE
Ammonia (mg/L)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

Monthly Average

Maximum

Monthly Average Limit

Weekly Average Limit

PARKING STATISTICS
Public Parking Spaces (Delineated) = 2,091
Private Parking Spaces (Permitted) = 234
Additional non-delineated ROW & parking at private homes
provides additional spaces
Parking Areas & Capacity on Summer Weekends
Area
North End
South End
Mid-Island

Percent Full
99%
99%
85%

SOLID WASTE RESIDENTIAL TRENDS


Solid Waste Disposal & Recycling Trends (Tons)
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

Solid Waste

Recycling

Linear (Solid Waste)

Linear (Recycling)

SOLID WASTE NON-RESIDENTIAL TRENDS


Non Residential Solid Waste Trends (Tons)
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
MSW DPW

MSW Lovell

Recycle DPW

Recycle Atlantic

Linear (MSW DPW)

Linear (MSW Lovell)

Linear (Recycle DPW)

Linear (Recycle Atlantic)

NUISANCE FLOODING

2016, January. Evans, Jason et all. Tybee Island Sea-Level Rise Adaptation Plan
Draft for Official Review and Comment, National Sea Grant College Program

SEA LEVEL RISE/FLOODING

FLOODING OF HIGHWAY 80

VULNERABILITIES IDENTIFIED IN THE SEA LEVEL


RISE STUDY
Failures of the local stormwater management system
Flooding of roads, particularly US Highway 80
Increased beach erosion
Saltwater intrusion
Higher and stronger storm surges

ZONING ANALYSIS PRELIMINARY RESULTS


CURRENT CONDITIONS

CLASSIFICATION
SINGLE FAMILY

DEVELOPMENT STATUS
BY PARCEL IN R2
1,337

MULTI FAMILY (DUPLEX)

85

NON-RESIDENTIAL

11

UNDEVELOPED
TOTAL PARCELS
TOTAL DWELLING UNITS

261
1,694
1,507

ZONING ANALYSIS PRELIMINARY RESULTS


FUTURE BUILD OUT

CLASSIFICATION
SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL

TOTAL
PARCELS
1,087

TWO FAMILY RESIDENTIAL

335

ONE SINGLE FAMILY,


ONE 2-FAMILY

93

TWO 2-FAMILY STRUCTURES

176

TOTAL PARCELS

1,691

TOTAL DWELLING UNITS

2,740

R2 ZONING - POPULATION GROWTH


IMPLICATIONS
Status

Dwelling
Units

Resident
Population
@ 40%
(2.1/unit)

Total
Overnight
Population
(Maximum)

1,266

Short Term
Rental
Population
@ 60%
(5/unit)
4,521

Current

1,507

Future
Growth

2,740
1,233

2,302
1,036

8,220
3,699

10,522
4,735

5,787

FUTURE WATER WITHDRAWAL DEMAND


Population
Peak Demand (Maximum Overnight
Population)
Future Additional Potential Peak
Demand (Build Out R2 Scenario)
Total Potential Peak Demand Water
Withdrawal
*Per Capita Water Demand 115 GPD

14,198

Daily Water
Usage
1,632,770

4,735

544,525

18,933

2,177,295

UNDERSTANDING OF CARRYING CAPACITY GOALS


Diverse and stable year-round population with a high quality of life
Sustainable tourism-based economy that also serves year-round population
and business owners in the off-season
Balance between the needs of the tourism industry and year round residents
Protection of Tybee Islands environmental, historic and cultural resources
Safe multi-modal access to, from and within Tybee Island for residents and
visitors
Adapting to a changing climate
Political and public support for implementation of the plan recommendations

IDENTIFICATION OF ISSUES/IMPACTS - WATER


Issues
Permit limitation
Peak usage associated with tourist
population
Cost of needed capital improvements

Potential Strategies
Cretaceous Well & Treatment Plant

Education for tourist, kids,


development community
Gray water usage
Rate study
Incentives for conservation

IDENTIFICATION OF ISSUES/IMPACTS WASTEWATER


Issues

Peak wastewater discharge


issues associated with tourists
Compounding effects of I&I.
Capacity of WWTP
infrastructure

Potential Strategies
Upgrade WWTP
Potential water quality issues from
discharge
Lack of space for WWTP expansion
Permitting and environmental impacts of
upgrading discharge pipe

IDENTIFICATION OF ISSUES/IMPACTS STORMWATER


Issues

Potential Strategies

Nuisance flooding associated with king


high tide and rain events.

Sea Level Rise Study recommended


improvements

Sea level rise is exacerbating flooding

Limiting impervious surfaces

Additional development may also


exacerbate flooding
Cost of infrastructure upgrades
Water quality issues that result from
flooding

IDENTIFICATION OF ISSUES/IMPACTS
TRAFFIC/PARKING
Issues
Peak traffic flow issues related to day-trippers
and events
Flooding of Hwy 80 and other roads on-island
Traffic related to accidents on Hwy 80
Parking availability and available land to
accommodate it
Illegal parking and congestion in residential
areas
Lack of alternative modes of transportation
No public harbor to allow for ferry service to
Savannah

Potential Strategies

Cost/benefit analysis of parking


lot in C1
Remote parking with
transportation
Multi-modal opportunities for
transportation to and within
Tybee Island
Notifying people about traffic
congestion and parking issues

IDENTIFICATION OF ISSUES/IMPACTS SHORT


TERM RENTALS
Issues

Strategies

Peak water & wastewater usage on the island


is driven by short term rentals
Short-term rentals are a component of all
above elements, but are also important to the
economy of the island
Conversion from short-term rental to year
round also has impacts that need to be
considered

IDENTIFICATION OF ISSUES/IMPACTS CITY


FUNDING
Issues

Need for reserves in the


general fund for disaster
preparedness and infrastructure
improvements
Capital costs for known
projects

Strategies
Rate

study for water &


wastewater infrastructure
improvements

City position for coordination


with tourism industry
Stormwater utility feasibility
study

IDENTIFICATION OF ISSUES/IMPACTS - ZONING


Issues

R-2 Zoning build out


R-2 zoning area of Tybee is
already flooding at King tides.

Strategies

Revise R2 cost to decrease subdivision


Limit areas zoned R2
Identify areas appropriate for growth
(Commercial districts) and steer growth there,
i.e. TDR.
Spread development out over a long period
of time through permitting limitations.

IDENTIFICATION OF ISSUES/IMPACTS - LITTER


Issues

Litter on beach
Solid waste disposal trends are still
increasing not decreasing as was
expected with the advent of
recycling

Strategies
Reduction of waste generation on
island
Alternatives for solid waste disposal in
landfills off island
Waste reduction education & litter
education
Enforcement of Litter ordinance
Incentives/programs to encourage
better compliance on the beach

NEXT STEPS
Finalize & Prioritize Strategies to Address Issues
Complete Carrying Capacity Report
Final Presentation to Council in September
Presentation to CRD at Brown Bag luncheon