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Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

Reaching Them Where They Are:


Millennials and their changing political consumption
patterns
A Battleground Poll of Millennials
Presented by Cornell Belcher
Twitter @cornellbelcher

July 2016

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

Cornell Belcher

President of brilliant corners Research & Strategies


Harvard Institute of Politics Fellow
George Washington University National Council for Media and
Public Affairs Board Member
The Root 100 in 2011 & 2012
AAPC 2009 Polling team of year award winner
Former Political Contributor to CNN
DNC Pollster under Chairman Howard Dean
Obama 2008 and 2012 Campaign team Pollster
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) Senior
Political Advisor 2002 cycle
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Special Projects
Director 2000 cycle
Emilys List Women VOTE! Coordinator 1998 cycle

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

Changing Face of the Electorate

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

Even if we dismantled every barrier to voting, that alone would not change the fact that
America has some of the lowest voting rates in the free world. In 2014, only 36 percent
of Americans turned out to vote in the midterms -- the second lowest participation rate
on record. Youth turnout -- that would be you -- was less than 20 percent.

Less than 20 percent. Four out of five did not vote.


In 2012, nearly two in three African Americans turned out. And then, in 2014, only two
in five turned out. You dont think that made a difference in terms of the Congress I've
got to deal with? And then people are wondering, well, how come Obama hasnt
gotten this done? How come he didnt get that done? You dont think that made a
difference? What would have happened if you had turned out at 50, 60, 70 percent, all
across this country? People try to make this political thing really complicated.
-Barack Obama, Howard University 2016

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

The Incoming Electorate Much younger


Voted before

18-29

New voters

30-44

2%

45-64
20%

65+

11%

29%

13%

23%

41%

Source: Edison Mitofsky Research, 2008 national exit poll

62%

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

The Incoming Electorate Much more diverse


Voted before
3%

Caucasian

New voters

AfricanAmerican
Hispanic

6%

12%

Other

7%

18%
55%

79%
20%

Source: Edison Mitofsky Research, 2008 national exit poll

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

The U.S. is experiencing rapid diversification


Percent of Total Population in America, 1950-2050
Majority
Minority

2050

47%

2040

51%

2030

26%

60%

2010

9%

13%

2000

13%
13%
13%

12%

11%

87%

10%

20%

30%

Caucasian

40%

6%

11%

85%

0%

3%

9%
12%

83%

1950

5%

13%

80%

1960

6%

16%

76%

1970

7%

19%

70%

1980

8%

23%

65%

1990

29%
14%

56%

2020
A political
tipping
point

13%

10%

50%

African-American

60%

70%

Hispanic

80%
Asian

Source: Center for American Progress. States of Change. February 2015

90%

5%
3%
3%

100%

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

What the Diversification Means Politically

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

Dramatic share differences for Youth vote


Youth voters make all the difference
2014 shares

2012 shares
50%
45%

56%
GOP

40%
35%
30%

60%
Dem

25%
20%

55%
Dem

56%
GOP

-6%

19%
16%

+6%

22%

13%

15%
10%

5%
0%
18-29

18-29

65+

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*CNN exit polls

65+

Seniors
made up
almost twice
the electorate
as younger
voters = bad
for Dems

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

Reagans GOP coalition is no longer enough to win


nationally
Presidential Election Results Reagan vs.
Carter, 1980

56% - Caucasian
14% - African-American
37% - Hispanic

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Source: Center for American Progress. States of Change. February 2015

36% - Caucasian
83% - African-American
56% - Hispanic

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

A New, Diverse Coalition Has Emerged as the


Majority Nationally
Presidential Election Results
Obama vs. Romney, 2012

Mitt Romney
59% - Caucasian
6% - African-American
27% - Hispanic

Barack Obama
39% - Caucasian
93% - African-American
71% - Hispanic

OHIO
41% - Caucasian
96% - AfricanAmerican
61% - Hispanic
VIRGINIA
37% - Caucasian
93% - AfricanAmerican
64% - Hispanic

Obama lost white vote but won the state


Nevada
Colorado
New Mexico
Michigan
Ohio
Florida
Pennsylvania
37% - Caucasian
Virginia
95% - African-American
Florida
60% - Hispanic

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Source: Center for American Progress. States of Change. February 2015

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

Key Findings

Despite perceptions that young and minority voters are disengaged in 2016, our data reveals that

85% of likely millennial voters are following information about politics and the candidates closely,
higher than in 2012.

Television is no longer the dominant source of information for information about politics and
candidates running for office -- being mentioned less often than online news sites, and making up
less than a quarter of total responses

Not only is televisions dominance gone, but three

out of ten young and minority likely voters


said that have not watched live TV AT ALL other than sports in the last 7 days. And 38% said they
infrequently or never watch television to find out information about politics

Our battleground poll showed young and minority likely voters to be much more
consume political information on a mobile device rather than on their computer

Despite unprecedented interest in the elections our battleground poll showed one third of young
and minority likely voters to be undecided across the senate races in the 10 states we surveyed

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likely to

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

Our battleground poll showed control of the senate might


very well be decided by

young and minority voters,


a third of whom are undecided. In the battleground states we
know that this groups is best reached through digital, that
they are mobile first, and that they are more likely to trust
sources online sources of information like Google and Online
news sites than they are traditional media.
In the battleground states we see a relatively high percentage
of persuadable voters among young and minority likely
voters. Combined with their overwhelming shift toward
mobile media consumption this creates a unique opportunity
for campaigns at all levels to shape opinion with the evolving
electorate.

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

Our Battleground Sample

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Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

Key Demographic Breakouts

African American

Hispanic

Minority: All non-white respondents

Swing voters: Respondents who are unsure of their Presidential vote


choice

Senate Undecided: Respondents who are undecided on down-ballot


races in their state

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Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

Millennials are consuming political information


differently

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

Political Information is Being Accessed on-the-go


Q: Generally
speaking, where
do you
consume the
most political
information
online? Is it on
the computer, or
on your mobile
device?

3%
20%

32%

44%

Computer

17

Mobile Device

Both

Neither

Dk/Ref

Total

Swing

Senate
Undecided

African
American

Hispanic

Minority

Computer

32%

36%

26%

28%

28%

31%

Mobile Device

44%

39%

47%

51%

45%

45%

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

Millennials are Relying Less on Their Television for Political


Information and More on Their Social Media Networks
Watch TV for Political Info

Access the Internet for Political Info

7%

21%

11%

14%

7%
20%

17%
18%

19%
21%

23%

20%

Frequently: 40%
Multiple times an hour
Once a day
A few times a month
Dk/Ref

18

Multiple times a day


A few times a week
Never

Frequently: 50%

Q: Currently, how
often do you
[watch television]
/ [access the
internet or social
media]
specifically to
find information
about politics (for
example to
research
something, learn
about
something)?

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

They are Turning Increasingly Online and to Social


Media Networks
Total
Online news sites

50%

TV

47%

Facebook

20%

Print newspapers or magazines

18%

Radio

17%

Family and Friends

12%

Google

11%

Blogs or other websites

9%

Other

2%

Dont know

0%

19

Majority going
online for
information

Q: Where do you
get most of your
information about
politics and
candidates
running for office
these days?
[Multiple
Responses
Permitted]

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

Television is no Longer the Dominant Source for


Political Information
Q: If you could
only have one
source for
information on
politics and
political
candidates to
make your voting
decisions this fall,
what would that
source be?
[Open-End
Responses]

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Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

They Trust Their Relationships and Sources who can


Deliver the News
TV ads
Political TV programs
Radio Ads
Political Radio Programs
Family and Friends

Total

Swing

Senate
Undecided

African
American

Hispanic

Minority

8%

9%

5%

9%

13%

11%

18%

14%

13%

24%

19%

21%

7%

7%

3%

8%

8%

8%

17%

15%

11%

19%

17%

17%

21%

16%

18%

23%

20%

20%

21%

16%

13%

22%

21%

22%

5%

7%

2%

6%

4%

7%

26%

22%

17%

29%

27%

27%

21%

20%

14%

29%

20%

26%

Print Newspaper or Magazines


Blogs
News Websites
Google

21

Q: How much
do you trust
each of the
following
sources for
political
information?
Please rate
each using a
scale of 0-10

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

This Election Year, Millennials are Paying


Attention but

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

Compared to 2012, More Millennials are Following


This Election Very Closely
11%

4%

27% very
closely in 2012

36%

48%

23

Very closely

Somewhat closely

Not at all closely

Dk/Ref

Not that closely

Total

Swing

Senate
Undecided

African
American

Hispanic

Minority

More closely

85%

81%

75%

86%

87%

86%

Less closely

15%

19%

24%

14%

13%

14%

Q: How closely
would you say
you have been
following news
and information
about politics and
candidates at this
point?

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

And More Millennials are Talking Often About the


Upcoming Election
17% every day
in 2012

Q: How often, if
ever, do you
discuss politics
with your family
or friends?

7%
21%

18%

23%
30%

Never
Once or twice a week
Every day

24

Once or twice a month


Three or four times a week
Dk/Ref

Total

Swing

Senate
Undecided

African
American

Hispanic

Minority

Infrequently

25%

29%

36%

27%

26%

26%

Often

53%

50%

49%

55%

54%

54%

Every day

21%

21%

14%

17%

20%

19%

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

Three Quarters of Millennials Have an Unfavorable


View of Donald Trump
Barack Obama

Hillary Clinton

13%

24%

Donald Trump

11%

Democrats

7% 6%

14%

0%

12%

22%

45%

26%

18%

8%

41%

15%

40%
Warm

13%

32%

8%

14%

20%
Scorching

22%

6%

30%

32%

Republicans

25

12%

46%

Neutral

60%
Cool

16%

80%
Freezing

Name
ID

Mean

99%

56.9

99%

39.7

99%

22.9

98%

53.0

98%

37.0

100%

DK/Unfamiliar

Q: Please rate
your feelings
toward some
people,
organizations,
issues and
themes using a
scale of 0-100

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

However, They are Still Disinterested in the


Political Process

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

They are Spending Their Time Online and Learning


More, but Taking Less Action
Total

Swing

Senate Undecided

Minority

Learn about a candidate or political party

77%

74%

70%

75%

Share your opinion about current events

69%

69%

65%

70%

Learn about or sign a petition

67%

65%

58%

66%

Find information on the voting process

61%

60%

56%

61%

Follow public policy or community development process

59%

59%

49%

57%

Encourage others to vote and participate in politics

57%

57%

48%

60%

Track legislation

46%

43%

32%

42%

Share a video that demonstrates injustice

44%

43%

38%

46%

Contact leaders or elected officials

36%

38%

26%

35%

Track donations to candidates and political groups

28%

29%

21%

29%

Making donation to candidates and political groups

27%

27%

17%

25%

Organize or participate in a protest or demonstration

25%

25%

19%

30%

22%

21%

12%

23%

18%

21%

14%

27%

Signing up for volunteer shifts with candidates,


organizations, and political groups
Watch or share a video in Spanish from your mobile
device

27

Q: Have you
ever used the
internet, social
media, or new
technologies
for any of the
following?

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

Hillary Needs to Improve Her Performance With


Dem Base Groups
Obama won
60% of youth
vote in 2012

9%
11%
3%

45%

24%
7%

Hillary Clinton

Lean Clinton

Donald Trump

Lean Trump

Other

Dk/Ref

Total

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Millennial
Senate
Swingwomen
Undecided

African
American

Hispanic

Minority

Hillary Clinton

52%

9%

49%

81%

57%

66%

Donald Trump

28%

7%

23%

6%

27%

15%

Other

20%

84%

27%

13%

16%

19%

Q: If the elections
for President
were being held
today, would you
vote for Donald
Trump or Hillary
Clinton for
President? Even
though you are
undecided, which
way do you lean?

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

Big Base Advantage, but Still a lot of


Persuadable Voters
Q: If the elections
for President
were being held
today, would you
vote for Donald
Trump or Hillary
Clinton for
President? Even
though you are
undecided, which
way do you lean?

26%

50%
24%

Base Clinton

29

Swing

Base Trump

Total

Swing

Senate
Undecided

African
American

Hispanic

Minority

Base Clinton

50%

0%

48%

79%

54%

63%

Swing

24%

100%

29%

17%

20%

23%

Base Trump

26%

0%

23%

4%

26%

14%

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

And a Plurality of Young Voters Are Undecided in


Battleground Senate Races
Q: If the elections
for US Senate
were being held
today, would you
vote for
[Democratic
Candidate] or
[Republican
Candidate]?
Even though you
wouldnt vote,
which way do
you lean?

33%

31%

36%

Senate Democrat

30

Senate Undecided

Senate Republican

Total

Swing

Senate
Undecided

African
American

Hispanic

Minority

Senate Democrats

33%

27%

0%

33%

29%

32%

Senate Republicans

31%

30%

0%

23%

34%

29%

Senate Undecided

36%

43%

100%

44%

36%

40%

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

Important to Make These People Familiar With


Their Senate Candidates
Undecided in both Pres and Senate race

34%

Not very likely to vote (3-5)

33%

Following the election less closely

30%

Has not voted previously

30%

African-American age 18-24

27%

Age 18-20

26%

Discuss politics infrequently

25%

Never watch TV for political information

25%

Minorities age 18-24

24%

Total

19%

Use the internet to contact elected officials

11%

Sign up to volunteer online

7%

31

Of people who are


familiar with
BOTH Trump and
Clinton, but
NEITHER of their
Senate
Candidates.

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

To Reach Them, we Have to be Aspirational

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

Pressure to Participate Comes From Within


Standing up for
my values
To make a
difference

30%

53%

Enjoy participating

14%

Pressure from
superiors

13%

Pressure from
friends

11%

Pressure from
social media

10%

0%

17%
17%
16%
16%

20%
Very important
Not at all important

21%

24%

27%

26%

40%
60%
Somewhat important
Don't know

5% 3%

9%

35%

38%

Pressure from
parents

5% 4%

23%

67%

Others have won


me my right to
participate

33

17%

72%

15%

6%
10%

45%
43%
43%
45%
80%
Not very important

100%

Q: Here are a list


of factors that
others have said
influence their
participation in
the political
process. How
important are
these factors on
your motivations
to participate in
the political
process?

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher

Methodology

These findings are from a proprietary survey conducted by brilliant corners Research &
Strategies. This battleground state survey consisted of 1029 Millennials, age 18-35 in 10 states:
CO, FL, GA, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, and WI. The survey was conducted by phone and online,
starting on July 12, 2016 and ending on July 20, 2016. The surveys sample was drawn randomly
from voter files and online panels and geographically stratified for proportional representation.
The data was weighted slightly to adhere to population demographics of Millennials. The margin
of error overall is +/-3.1%, with a 95% confidence interval.

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