Research and Statistics Working Group – European City Tourism Monitor V_ ___________

ECM RESEARCH AND STATISTICS WORKING GROUP

EUROPEAN CITY TOURISM MONITOR V
REPORT INTRO: ARE EUROPEAN CITIES ON THE WAY TO RECOVERY? According to the results of the 5th edition of the European City Tourism Monitor, city tourism professionals who answered the survey expect bed nights in the 2nd quarter of 2010 to grow, comparing to the same period in 2009. The difference between “positive expectations” and “negative expectations” is of 34 percent points. The ones who don’t expect any variation count for 19%. Domestic markets and leisure segment seem to lead this trend. In terms of international source markets, Italy and Germany are more expected than others to grow, being Great Britain the most resilient to invert the past losses. From those who answered this survey, the more optimistic in this sense come from the South and the Southwest of Europe. It should be noticed too that, with the exception of the interviewed from the South of Europe, a fall in hotel prices is not much expected. In fact, an increase will not be surprising in Western and Northwestern Europe. THE SAMPLE All ECM members were asked to participate in this survey and 89 valid answers were collected from 68 cities from all parts of Europe. In order to produce regional results, the participating cities were classified according to the European

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Research and Statistics Working Group – European City Tourism Monitor V_ ___________

region they belong to. The participants, to whom we express our deepest thanks, were:
Central Europe 23 answers Aachen Berlin (2) Bratislava Budapest (2) Dresden Geneva Graz Heidelberg (2) Linz Luzern Montreux Munich (2) Nuremberg Olomouc Prague Salzburg Stuttgart (2) Vienna Northern Europe 20 answers Bergen Copenhagen (3) Finland Conv. Bur. Göteborg Helsinki (3) Malmö Oslo Reykjavik (2) Stockholm Turku (4) Uppsala Vilnius Western and Northwestern Europe 15 answers Amsterdam (2) Antwerp Belfast Bruges Brussels Cardiff Chester Dijon Dublin (2) Luxembourg Lyon Paris York Southern and Southwestern Europe 23 answers Avignon Barcelona Bolzano Cordoba Coruna (2) Firenze (2) Genova (2) Gijon Las Palmas Lisboa (2) Madeira Malta Rimini San Sebastian (2) Torino (2) Valencia Zaragoza Southeastern Europe 8 answers Belgrade Opatija Ljubljana Maribor Novi Sad Sofia Split Zagreb

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Research and Statistics Working Group – European City Tourism Monitor V_ ___________

Almost half of the sample was made of professionals working at a CTO. 12% belonged to a convention bureau, and almost a quarter worked in an organization that is both a CTO and a Convention Bureau. In terms of working fields, there was a good mix between CEOs, marketers and researchers/analysts. TOTAL SAMPLE RESULTS Bed nights and Hotel Prices

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Research and Statistics Working Group – European City Tourism Monitor V_ ___________

More than 50% of those interviewed expect that bed nights in their city destinations will grow in the 2nd quarter of 2010, comparing to the same period of 2009. In most of these cases the growth will be between 1 and 5%. Around a fifth believes that bed night’s volume will be similar to last years’, and only 17% are expecting a decrease in this indicator. The difference between the “optimistic” and the “pessimistic” is of almost 34 percent points. Domestic markets are expected to perform better than international ones. The same difference in these two cases is respectively 38 and 22 points. Considering hotel prices, the “three states of Nature” are possible to occur: 28% bet in a room price increase; 33% stand for the maintenance; 25% believe in a decrease. The positive difference between the “optimistic” and the “pessimistic”, if this indicator can be judged that way, is very short: 3 points.

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Research and Statistics Working Group – European City Tourism Monitor V_ ___________

Bed nights by segments

Analyzing expectations on bed night’s evolution by tourism segments, we find that optimism resides basically in Leisure segment: 56% of the answers stood for an increase, while only 12% reported their pessimism. 29 % are not expecting a significant change over 2009 results.

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Research and Statistics Working Group – European City Tourism Monitor V_ ___________

This last “feeling” is the most pointed out in the other segments: A bit more than 40% expect no changes in the MICE business, whether it is Corporate (companies organizing their own events) or Non-Corporate (associations’ meetings, etc.). 40% has the same opinion regarding Individual business travelers. However, the difference between those who believe in growth and those who believe in the opposite is lightly positive: 8 points for MICE Non Corporate; 3 points for individual business travelers; and 1 point for MICE corporate. Bed nights by source markets

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Research and Statistics Working Group – European City Tourism Monitor V_ ___________

Italian and German markets are looked with more optimism by those who answered this survey. The difference between the optimistic and the pessimistic in these two cases is of 26 and 22 points respectively. In addition, despite most of the expected growth in bed nights is placed between 1% and 5%, we must admit that 12% answers forecasting a more than 5% growth in the Italian market is a nice figure. French, American and Spanish markets, more than growing, are expected not to decrease, and that’s why the difference between optimism and pessimism turns out to be positive. Maintenance of the 2009 volume is the main answer in these cases. Great Britain is the only market in which the decrease expectations surpass the increase ones (difference of almost 6 points). The percentage of people who expect maintenance (29.2%) is close to the one of the “disbelievers” (30.3%).

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Research and Statistics Working Group – European City Tourism Monitor V_ ___________

Total bed nights in 2010

Almost 60% of those polled expect a growth between 1% and 5% in bed nights in their destinations for the whole 2010. 16% won’t be surprised with a higher rate. In fact, only 16% expect 2010 to be worst than 2009. Key factors affecting tourism in 2nd Quarter 2010
Key factors in 2nd quarter 2010 Events, culture, new attractions 13,5% Better economy, confidence 12,4% Economy crisis, unemployment 11,2% Exchange rates 9,0% Air Accessibility 7,9% Marketing campaigns 7,9% Value for Money 7,9%

When asked about the key factors influencing tourism in their destinations in the next quarter of 2010 Answering people put more emphasis in the situation of the economy, whether is it already improving (12.4%) or not (11.2%). Events, culture and new attractions were regarded as push factors by 13.5% of those polled. Evolution of exchange rates –acting in both directions – was also

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Research and Statistics Working Group – European City Tourism Monitor V_ ___________

pointed out as a key element to consider (9%). Better air accessibility, marketing campaigns on the run and the focus on value for money was all seen as positive factors (8% each). RESULTS BY INCOMING REGION Total Bed nights in the 2nd Quarter

An increase in total bed nights is expected all across Europe. The more optimistic come from the South and Southwest of Europe.

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Research and Statistics Working Group – European City Tourism Monitor V_ ___________

However, there are a small percentage of people from this region and from the West and the Northwest who still expect a decrease of 5% or more in this indicator. In fact there is higher volatility in the answers coming from these parts of Europe, as high growth (superior to 5%) is also expected by some people. And in the latter they are accompanied by Central Europe. Domestic Bed nights

With the exception of Southeastern Europe there’s a good confidence in the domestic markets to grow, especially in Western and Northwestern Europe and
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Research and Statistics Working Group – European City Tourism Monitor V_ ___________

in Central Europe. Once again, there’s a great volatility in the answers coming from Western and Northwestern Europe, and from Southern and Southwestern Europe.

International Bed nights

Southeastern Europe, Southern and Southwestern Europe and Central Europe “safely” expect a good 2nd quarter in 2010. However, in Northern Europe, people tend more to forecast the maintenance of 2009’s standards. In Western and

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Research and Statistics Working Group – European City Tourism Monitor V_ ___________

Northwestern Europe, any of the three possible evolutions is almost equally foreseen. Hotel Prices

Concerning hotel prices’ evolution there’s no unanimity between regions. In Southeastern Europe no one is expecting an increase in prices. Most of the people forecast the maintenance of price levels and 25% bet on a light decrease.

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Research and Statistics Working Group – European City Tourism Monitor V_ ___________

In Southern and Southwestern Europe there’s a light trend for price decrease, but maintenance has also great “support”. In Western and Northwestern Europe there are more expectations of a price increase than of a decrease, and maintenance collects one third of the answers. More or less the same happens in Central Europe. In Northern Europe, maintenance of price levels is less expected and the opinions are divided between both decrease and increase, with a light supremacy of the latter.

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