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**Quantitative Methods II for Political Science
**

Kenneth Benoit

January 7, 2009

**Objectives and learning outcomes
**

I

to more deeply understand the linear regression model

I

to diagnose and correct problems with LRM in real data

I

to apply generalizations of LRM to binary and count data

I

to be able to read quantitative studies in political science

I

**to know where to go for more advanced techniques and
**

problems

I

**only prerequisite is Quant I, but the more previous statistics,
**

the better

due back the next Wed.com I You can scan anything using the departmental scanner if needed Replication project (50%) – quantative reanalysis of a published quantitative work .Grading I I Problem sets (50%) I Handed out Wed. I Problem solutions should be submitted as a single pdf file I Problem sets must be submitted to http://turnitin.

Boca Raton: Chapman & Hall.stat. 5th ed. 1998.mcmaster.umich. Peter.r-project. The website for the Faraway book is http://www. Faraway. A Guide to Econometrics. Oxford: Blackwell Julian J. Linear Models with R.lsa.org Multi-platform Extremely powerful Lots of free documentation There is a GUI shell called R Commander by John Fox.Texts and Software for this course I Two primary texts I I I I I Kennedy.edu/~faraway/LMR/ Can be ordered through Amazon or purchased at Hodges and Figgis (purchasing both is definitely recommended) Software will be the R statistical package I I I I I Free from http://www. 2005.ca/jfox/Misc/Rcmdr/ . from http://socserv.

5740.A problem: Method of Moments Failure I Dublin uses serial numbers for cars such that 07-D-12371 means the year 2007. 432. 21999. and the 12371th registration number issued I Let’s say that based on a sample of observing number plates. Dublin. you want to estimate the total number of licenses issued in 2007 I Sample: 12371. 7629. 9000 I The question is same as asking: What is N ? I This is a version of a very common problem of estimating an equation for averages or the mean .

. 056 I So is answer 19. N.528. we can calculate a sample mean X I We also know that from the population of serial numbers 1. since in this case we know it should be (at least) 21.999 I Lesson: Some methods of estimation are better than others! .5) − 1 = 19.5 From the sample. 3. we can use this to solve for N: If E(µ) = X I µ = (N + 1)/2 (1) 2µ = N + 1 2µ − 1 = N ¯ −1 N = 2X = 2(9. . 528. the mean µ in terms of N is µ = (N + 1)/2 ¯ .I ¯ : 9. 2. .056? I NO.

edu/~tconklin/MATH144/ Main/Extras/PRGreekAlphabet.Some suggestions at this point I Suggestion: Review the Greek math alphabet.pdf I Suggestion: Review the rules of matrix algebra I Suggestion: Review the rules concerning expectations (and variances) .boisestate. see http://math.

Pr()=0 With two persons. probability is very small For a group of ≥ 365 people. Pr()=1 that two people will have the same birthday.50? . what is the probability of two people in the group having the same birthday? Approach problems like this first by considering extreme cases: I I I I With one person. since there are only 365 possible birthdays to go around Question: How many people are needed before the probability exceeds 0.The Birthday Problem I I The “birthday problem” is a classic problem: Given a group of people.

. there are 365 distinct birthdays (excluding leap years for simplicity) For two people: I I I there are 3652 different pairs of birthdays for our two people there are (365-1) different ways for the second person to have a different birthday so the Pr(x1 6= x2 ) = 365(365−1) 3652 I A third person has 363 different days that could be different from the first two people. .I I For one person. so Pr(x1 6= x2 6= x3 ) = (365 · 364 · 363)/3653 I This leads to the general formula for the probability of a match with n birthdays being 365n − 365 · 364 · . · (365 − n + 1) 365n 365! = 1− (2) (365 − n)!365n Pr (n) = 1 − .

. (2) horizontal deviations. (3) etc. Estimates will be βˆ or θ. 3. What are alternatives? (1) absolute deviations. The makes the function stochastic. Where does come from? 1. Omission of the influence of innumerable chance events. 2. without it the function would be deterministic. I Most common estimation method is to minimize the squared errors (“least squares”).Randomness and statistical modelling I I The disturbance term: Y = f (X ) + . Measurement error. Human indeterminacy. I ˆ Parameter is generally β or θ.

Point Estimation I How can the population be estimated from the sample? I A random sample is a random subset of the population I “Strictly random” means all units from the population have an equal probability of being chosen for the sample being chosen for the sample Sample Relative frequencies fni are used to compute: ¯ Sample mean X Sample variance s 2 Population Probabilities are used to compute These random variables are statistics or estimators These fixed constants are parameters or targets Population mean µ Population variance σ 2 Table: Review of Population v. Sample .

). An estimator V is called biased if E (V ) is different from θ I Bias ≡ E (V ) − θ Bias is often assessed by characterizing the sampling distribution of an estimator I I I I I I repeated samples are drawn by resampling from the disturbance term (in our case.000 times using β ∗ to calculate an estimate of β The way that the 1.000 samples are distributed is called the sampling distribution of β ∗ For an estimator β ∗ to be an unbiased estimator of β means that the mean of its sampling distribution is equal to β Another way to put this is that E(β ∗ ) = β .Properties of Estimators: Bias I U is an unbiased estimator of θ if E (U) = θ. while keeping the values of the independent variables unchanged For instance we could do this 1.

The efficiency of V compared to W is W ≡ varW varV . then center ¯ or can be estimated without bias by either the sample mean X 0 0 2 the sample median X .57σ /n. I This gives rise to the notion of relative efficiency. varX ≈ 1. This is the notion of efficiency. I If population being sampled is exactly symmetric.Properties of Estimators: Efficiency I We would like the distribution of an estimator to be highly concentrated—to have a small variance. to which we will return shortly I Not really the same as “minimum variance” . the smaller variance makes it Since X 157% more efficient than the median for normal populations. ¯ has variance σ 2 /n. For large samples.

k is said to be the probability limit of βˆ and is written plimβˆ = k. then βˆ is said to be consistent I . as n −→ ∞ (Kennedy) If the asymptotic distribution of βˆ becomes concentrated on a particular value k as N −→ ∞. if for any positive δ (no matter how small). I V is defined to be a consistent estimator of θ. Pr(|V − θ|) < δ) −→ 1. MSE approaches zero in the limit: bias and variance both approach zero as sample size increases.Properties of Estimators: Consistency I A consistent estimator is one that concentrates in a narrower and narrower band around its target as sample size increases indefinitely. if plimβˆ = β.

which should we choose? I Answer: The one with minimum variance I When comparing both biased. and unbiased. .Choosing from among alternative estimators I When we compare two unbiased estimators. which should we choose? I Answer: The one with the best combination of small bias and small variance I Mean Squared Error (MSE): ≡ E (V − θ)2 .

More on mean squared error I MSE = (variance of estimator) + (its bias)2 I Relative efficiency of V compared to W : ≡ MSE(W ) MSE(V ) .

even when these don’t hold in smaller samples (e. maximum likelihood) For many estimation problems. non-parametric alternatives are favored when sample sizes are small I I Example: t-test versus Kruskal Wallis test.Large-sample properties of estimators I asymptotically unbiased: means that a biased estimator has a bias that tends to zero as sample size approaches infinity. we often must choose between different estimators on the basis of asymptotic properties I Asymptotic properties of estimators refer to what happens as sample size increases towards infinity I Many estimators are trusted in principle because of their asymptotic properties. I When no estimator with desireable small-scale properties can be found.g. or Chi-squared test versus Fisher exact test .

Example: mean squared deviation 1 n P ¯ )2 (X − X I Mean squared deviation or MSD = I This is a biased estimator of population variance σ 2 . since its bias approaches zero as n → ∞ . we use instead the sample variance: 1 P ¯ )2 s 2 ≡ n−1 (X − X I But MSD is asymptotically unbiased. when X = 1. it yields MSD = 0 I As a result. since on average it will underestimate true quantity I For example.

(3) (4) (5) (6) (7) .Proof n−1 2 s n 1 2 s = 1− n 1 E (MSD) = 1− E (s 2 ) n MSD = Since s 2 is an unbiased estimator of σ 2 : 1 E (MSD) = 1− E (σ 2 ) n 1 2 = σ − σ2 n The last term n1 → 0 as n → ∞.

what is the value of π (the probability that xi =head) that is most likely to have generated the data? Properties: I I I I I asymptotically unbiased consistent (asymptotically) normally distributed asymptotic variance can be computed using a standard formula I (almost all) maximization of likelihoods is done numerically using computers I The logit. Poisson etc. models we will do later in this class all use maximum likelihood for estimating parameters . probit. than from any other set of values I Example: Given a set of coin toss data.Maximum likelihood (very brief introduction) I Based on the principle that the sample of data at hand is more likely to have come from a world characterized by one particular set of parameter values.

4. or as a supplement to theoretical derivations I Allows direct exploration of samplong distributions. I Model the data-generating process Genereate artificial datasets create estimates from the data using the estimator use these estimates to assess the estimator’s sampling distribution Monte Carlo simulation is extremely common and important tool of modern statistical methods. and computationally very accessible using modern computers and software (like R) . through simulation Steps involved: I 1. 3.Monte Carlo studies I A Monte Carlo study is a simulation exercise designed to shed light on the small-sample properties of competing estimators for a given estimation problem I Used when small-sample properties cannot be derived theoretically. 2.

Monte Carlo example n ¯2 n−1 y I Consider the sample variance estimator s 2 = I Cochran’s theorem shows that if Y is iid Normal.numeric(500) for (i in 1:500) { result[i] <. after sorting the computed sample variances plot(sort(result). ylab="Computed sample variance") # now check whether sampling distribution matches a Chi^2 chisq.test(result) . type="l".sv(rnorm(50)) } # plot the result. for a given sample size # define a function for the sample variance sv <. then s 2 follows a scaled chi-square distribution χ2n−1 I To verify this using Monte Carlo simulations.000 simuated sample variances # this will be from 50 random y values result <.function(y) { length(y) / (length(y)-1) * mean(y)^2 } # create a loop to compute and store 1. we can construct sample datasets and examine the sampling distribution.

lfactorial(365-n) n*log(365)) .(factorial(365) / (factorial(365-n) * 365n )) I Does this work? No – numbers too big! I How to solve this: use logarithms and lfactorial(): 1-exp(lfactorial(365) . w can use the factorial() function I So for n = 10: 1 .Working in R: Birthday problem example 365! (365−n)!365n I Formula: 1 − I In R.

5.8 0.0 plot(x.ylab="Probability of same birthday") abline(h=.4 0.2 0.6 0.Working in R: Birthday problem example code lbdp <.lbdp(x)) 0.lbdp(x). xlab="Number of people".1:60 plot(x.n*log(365)) } x <.exp(lfactorial(365) .lfactorial(365-n) . lty="dashed".0 Probability of same birthday 1.function(n) { 1 . col="red") 0 10 20 30 Number of people 40 50 60 .

463611 0.340263 -0.238 1511.000 -0.000 -0.000 -0.114581 0.525842 -3.001 -0.071752 -0.4251): 4274 0 2094312.067836 -0.000 -0.526475 2.579062 -10.137731 -0.347095 0.828347 2.329397 -0.356743 -0.911983 0.500895 2.222815 LRDr -36.579062 -5.074916 -0.215230 HSL -34.579349 2.345755 -0.584085 0.525842 -2.579062 -14.338273 -0.164518 306.139978 .251488 0.755473 2.525842 -2.068511 -0.579062 -13.579062 -14.220301 Dan -36.579062 -13.005 -0.437041 0.156677 EqP*m -21.001 -0.222081 Ad*m -20.029154 2.579062 -5.298693 0.153527 2.251313 -0.886 7.579062 -13.076367 -0.217458 MSL -35.204481 -0.207012 dH -33.351511 -0.000 -0.000 -0.525842 -3.018091 0.365885 0.000 -0.000 -0.205144 -0.224798 LRI*m -7.189101 0.000 -0.302552 2.714750 0.104594 -0.292628 2.780486 0.525842 -3.138679 -0.953863 2.525842 -2.004 -0.583881 0.002049 2.325603 0.225317 MSL*m -7.283115 0.443131 2.002 -0.573980 0.795460 0.208080 LRH*m -6.753087 0.371193 2.887 237366.642 Dependent variable: Deletion method: Degrees of freedom: Rbar-squared: Std error of est: Probability of F: disprls None 4251 0.141654 Dan*m -7.244856 0.000 -0.147518 EqP -14.226579 LRDr*m -7.000 -0.063667 -0.679571 2.353869 -0.579062 -14.622546 0.401702 2.000 Standard Prob Standardized Cor with Variable Estimate Error t-value >|t| Estimate Dep Var ------------------------------------------------------------------------------CONSTANT 50.721835 2.217981 LRI -35.971 0.501692 2.525842 -8.023068 2.006 -0.355209 2.224528 LRH -37.Example: Regression output Valid cases: Missing cases: Total SS: R-squared: Residual SS: F(22.525842 -8.218966 dH*m -8.823319 2.080896 -0.525842 -4.219566 ImpHA*m -10.354906 0.099302 0.000 -0.525842 -2.216392 SL*m -6.472 0.082936 -0.002 -0.010 -0.223110 SL -37.579062 -14.323470 -0.961184 2.040401 0.157791 ImpHA -26.145850 Ad -14.000 ----HSL*m -8.000 -0.525842 -3.278325 2.000 -0.579062 -13.

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