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NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll

Embargoed for release Tuesday, August 9, 2016 at 6:00AM
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll tracks voter preferences and attitudes on a weekly basis throughout
the 2016 election cycle. Results are released every Tuesday at 6:00AM and are among registered voters.
Results for the week of August 1, 2016 through August 7, 2016 are among a national sample of 11,480 registered voters (+/- 1.2%),
3,451 registered Republican voters (+/-2.3%) and 3,974 registered Democratic voters (+/-2.0%). Complete error estimates can be
found in the methodology section below.

TOPLINE RESULTS
Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?

8/1—8/7
7/25—7/31
7/18--7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16 – 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28-1/3

Foreign
Policy
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
4
4
4
4
5
5
4
5
5
4
5
5
6

The
environment
8
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
9
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
8
8
8
8

Terrorism
20
23
26
23
22
21
21
23
12
12
13
13
12
12
14
14
16
17
19
18
12
13
13
14
16
16
15
17
19
21
23
23

Immigration
6
7
7
8
8
9
9
7
7
7
7
6
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
8
8
8

Health
care
14
13
13
12
13
13
15
14
17
17
15
16
16
15
16
15
15
14
15
13
15
16
16
16
15
14
16
13
15
13
13
14

Jobs and the
Economy
32
30
28
29
29
31
28
29
37
35
36
36
35
36
33
32
32
31
32
32
36
35
35
34
33
34
32
32
33
29
28
27

Education
9
8
8
8
9
8
9
9
10
11
10
12
11
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
11
10
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
8
9

Other
6
6
7
8
7
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
5
6
5
5
5
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
5

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
8/1—8/7
7/25—7/31
7/18—7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16 – 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2—5/8
4/25—5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Strongly approve
32
32
28
27
27
28
30
30
29
27
27
27
28
28
27
26
28
27
28
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
27
25
26
26
23
23

Somewhat approve
21
20
21
22
22
22
22
21
22
24
23
23
23
23
24
24
24
23
24
24
24
23
23
23
22
24
23
22
24
22
22
25

Somewhat disapprove
11
11
11
12
12
11
12
12
12
12
12
13
13
12
13
13
12
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
14
12
12
12

In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?
8/1—8/7
7/25—7/31
7/18---7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16—5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 - 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27

Republican
30
30
31
29
27
28
28
28
28
29
28
29
28
32
28
28
29
30
29
30

Democrat
36
36
32
33
33
34
35
34
35
35
33
34
35
35
36
35
34
34
35
33

Independent
32
33
36
36
38
37
36
36
36
36
37
35
35
31
35
36
35
35
35
36

No answer
2
1
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
2

Strongly disapprove
35
36
39
38
38
38
35
37
36
37
37
36
35
36
36
37
37
37
35
35
35
36
37
37
39
38
38
40
36
40
42
40

No answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

30
31
32
31
31
30
30
31
28
31
33
30

36
35
36
35
35
35
35
34
34
34
32
34

32
33
31
33
33
33
33
33
36
33
34
34

2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
2

As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? [AMONG IND OR DON’T KNOW FOR
PARTY]
8/1—8/7
7/25—7/31
7/18—7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16 – 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4 – 4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Republican
Party
29
33
32
37
32
33
32
32
33
33
32
31
33
32
32
35
33
33
31
31
31
31
32
34
38
34
35
34
33
36
36
37

Democratic
Party
29
27
26
26
26
26
29
28
28
26
28
29
28
32
27
27
30
28
29
28
28
27
29
28
28
28
30
26
27
26
26
24

Neither
40
38
39
34
39
37
36
36
36
37
37
37
36
35
38
35
34
35
38
37
39
41
36
36
33
35
33
37
39
37
36
37

No answer
1
2
2
3
4
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
1
3
3
3
4
2
4
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
1
1

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote?

8/1—8/7
7/25—7/31
7/18—7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16– 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8

Hillary Clinton,
the Democrat
51
50
46
46
47
48
49
48
49
48
47
47
48
49

Donald Trump,
the Republican
41
42
45
45
44
43
41
42
42
44
45
43
45
44

No
answer
8
8
9
9
10
9
10
10
9
9
8
9
7
7

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates for whom would you vote?

8/1—8/7
7/25—7/31
7/18—7/24
7/11—7/17
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
6/2—6/5

Donald
Trump, the
Republican
38
38
41
40
38
38
36
38
38
40

Hillary
Clinton, the
Democrat
44
43
39
39
40
41
42
42
42
39

Gary
Johnson,
the
Libertarian
10
9
10
10
11
9
9
9
9
9

Jill Stein,
the
Green
Party
4
4
5
5
6
5
5
5
5
4

No
answer
4
5
6
7
6
6
7
7
6
8

And what are the chances that you will vote for the candidate you just selected for President? [AMONG THOSE WHO CHOSE A
CANDIDATE]

8/1—8/7
6/6—6/12
6/2—6/5

Absolutely
certain I will
vote for the
candidate
59
54
53

Large
chance I’ll
vote for the
candidate
22
25
27

50-50
chance I’ll
vote for
the
candidate
12
13
12

Small
chance I’ll
vote for
the
candidate
4
7
6

No
answer
3
1
2

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Hillary Clinton?

8/1—8/7
7/25—7/31
7/4—7/10
5/9 – 5/15

Strongly
favorable
20
20
15
17

Somewhat
favorable
23
21
23
23

Somewhat
unfavorable
12
13
14
14

Strongly
unfavorable
44
44
46
45

No
answer
1
1
2
1

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Tim Kaine?

8/1—8/7
7/25—7/31

Strongly
favorable
11
11

Somewhat
favorable
22
19

Somewhat
unfavorable
13
13

Strongly
unfavorable
12
10

Don’t know
enough to say
41
46

No answer
2
2

Don’t know
enough to say
36
37
48

No answer
1
1
1

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Donald Trump?

8/1—8/7
7/18—7/24
7/4—7/10
6/6—6/12
5/9—5/15

Strongly
favorable
15
17
14
15
14

Somewhat
favorable
21
23
22
22
23

Somewhat
unfavorable
12
13
13
12
13

Strongly
unfavorable
52
46
49
49
49

No
answer
1
1
2
2
1

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Mike Pence?

8/1—8/7
7/18—7/24
7/15—7/18

Strongly
favorable
14
15
11

Somewhat
favorable
19
17
15

Somewhat
unfavorable
12
11
9

Strongly
unfavorable
18
18
17

METHODOLOGY
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking data for the week of August 1, 2016 through August 7, 2016 was conducted online among
a national sample of 11,480 adults aged 18 and over who say they are registered to vote. Respondents for this survey were selected from
the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this week has been weighted for age, race,
sex, education, region, and voter registration status using the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Current Population Survey to reflect
the demographic composition of the United States. An additional smoothing parameter for ideology based on previous Election Tracking interviews
is included. The smoothing parameter was derived from aggregated data on ideology by region collected from previous weeks (May 1-June 26) of
the Weekly Election Tracking poll.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error
can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and
measurement error.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate.
The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 1.2 percentage point for registered voters.
To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence
intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in
much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.
Group
Total RVs

Unweighted N
11,480

Plus or minus
1.2

Republican RVs
Democrat RVs
Independent RVs

3,451
3,974
3,915

2.3
2.0
2.1

Male
Female

5,673
5,807

1.6
1.8

18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+

574
1,250
1,715
2,466
2,930
2,545

5.3
3.7
3.1
2.6
2.4
2.6

White
Black
Hispanic
Other

9013
876
701
890

1.4
4.5
4.5
4.7