US mobile carrier revenue forecasts to 2015

Covering voice and data revenues, and drivers to take up

Coda.

Coda Research Consultancy

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Coda.

Coda Research Consultancy

US mobile carrier revenue forecasts to 2015
Steve Smith PhD Research Director Coda Research Consultancy Released 22 March 2010
For more information about this product, please email steve.smith@codarc.co.uk, or call +44 (0)7779 610004

European office: Coda Research Consultancy Ltd 95 Wodeland Avenue Guildford Surrey GU2 4LD England © Coda Research Consultancy Ltd, 2010
All rights reserved. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, or stored in any retrieval system of any nature, without prior written permission of Coda Research Consultancy Ltd, except where this is expressly permitted under the Copyright Designs and Patents Act 1988 or the Copyright and Rights in Databases Regulations 1999. This report draws upon research and analysis conducted by Coda Research Consultancy. Use of this report by any third party for whatever purpose should not, and does not, absolve such third party from using due diligence in verifying the report’s contents. Any use which a third party makes of this document, or any reliance on it, or decisions to be made based on it, are the responsibility of such third party. Coda Research Consultancy, its affiliates and representatives accept no duty of care or liability of any kind whatsoever to any such third party, and no responsibility for damages, if any, suffered by any third party as a result of decisions made, or not made, or actions taken, or not taken, based on this document. Coda Research Consultancy does not make investment recommendations, in this report or otherwise, and nothing in this report should be interpreted as an opinion by Coda Research Consultancy either on market forecasts or on the prospects of specific companies.

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Introduction
Document at a glance: Type – Forecasts report Printed page length – 26 Figures – 18 Number of forecasts – 10

Increasingly, mobile handset usage is more about data and less about voice. With mobile internet users via handsets forecast to rise to 158m in 2015, data revenues are clearly set to climb. At the same time, however, voice revenues are set to decline. This 25 page Coda Research Consultancy report provides carrier revenue forecasts to 2015 for voice, SMS data and non-SMS data, together with drivers to revenue changes. Subjects covered: Carrier revenues Voice revenues Non-SMS data revenues SMS data revenues ARPU Tiered pricing vs flat rate pricing Drivers to revenue changes: Smartphone ownership and shipments Mobile internet users and traffic 4G roll out Mobile video Mobile working Social networking Location based services Applications VoiP

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Contents and figures

Contents
Methodology ................................................................ 5 The emerging mobile eco-system .................................. 6 Carrier revenues........................................................... 7 Voice revenues, and forecast to 2015 ....................... 7 Data revenues, and forecast to 2015 ........................ 7 ARPU, and forecast to 2015...................................... 9 Flat rate pricing ....................................................... 9 Tiered pricing .......................................................... 9 Drivers and barriers to carrier revenues ........................12 Smartphones ......................................................... 12 Mobile internet users.............................................. 14 Monthly data traffic forecasts to 2015 ..................... 15 4G rollout across carriers........................................ 16 Mobile internet activities......................................... 18 Bibliography ............................................................... 25 About Coda Research Consultancy............................... 26

Forecasts and Figures
Forecast 1. Voice vs data revenues, 2009-2015.............. 7 Forecast 2. SMS vs non-SMS data revenues, 20092015 ................................................................... 8 Forecast 3. SMS vs non-SMS data revenue percentage split, 2009-2015................................................... 8 Forecast 4. Contribution of voice, SMS and non-SMS revenues to overall revenues, 2009-2015 .............. 8 Forecast 5. Carrier ARPU: Voice vs SMS vs non-SMS data, 2009-2015 .................................................. 9 Forecast 6. Smartphone subscribers, 2009-2015............13 Forecast 7. Mobile internet users via mobile handsets, 2009-2015..........................................................15 Forecast 8. Handset data traffic per month, 20092015 ..................................................................15 Forecast 9. People accessing social networking. Smartphones vs feature phones, 2009-2015 .........20 Forecast 10. Mobile internet video users, 2009-2015 .....21 Figure 1. The emerging mobile ecosystem ..................... 6 Figure 2. Mobile internet user penetration across smartphone brands ............................................ 14 Figure 3. Typical throughout speeds, comparing 3G with LTE ............................................................ 16 Figure 4. Sprint WiMax coverage map by city ............... 17 Figure 5. Top sites visited via mobile internet ............... 18 Figure 6. Location based usage among smartphone owners, by smartphone brand............................. 21 Figure 7. Application usage across operating systems ... 23 Figure 8. Numbers of applications available, by app store ................................................................. 23

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About Coda Research Consultancy

Employing highly structured data collection and analysis, Coda Research Consultancy specializes in understanding and forecasting future trends, roles and impacts of new technologies, services and media upon people, organizations and businesses. Coda undertakes two types of projects each year: ad-hoc projects for individual research partners in the UK and overseas, and more widely scoped projects that are available to anyone in the forms of reports and optional presentations. Coda Research Consultancy is led by Dr Steve Smith, an acknowledged research specialist with thirteen years' research and consulting experience around new media and new technologies. To find out more, visit www.codarc.co.uk, or contact us below: European office 95 Wodeland Avenue Guildford Surrey GU2 4LD England Tel: +44(0)7779 610004 Email: steve.smith@codarc.co.uk

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