Worldwide Smartphone

Sales Forecast to 2015
Coda Research Consultancy

Coda.

Coda Research Consultancy

Coda.

Coda Research Consultancy

Worldwide Smartphone
Sales Forecast to 2015
Released: May 13, 2010
Steve Smith PhD
Research Director
Coda Research Consultancy

For more information about this product, please email steve.smith@codarc.co.uk, or call
+44 (0)7779 610004

European office:
Coda Research Consultancy Ltd
95 Wodeland Avenue
Guildford
Surrey
GU2 4LD
England
© Coda Research Consultancy Ltd, 2010

All rights reserved. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, or stored in any retrieval system of any
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This report draws upon research and analysis conducted by Coda Research Consultancy. Use of this report by any third party for whatever
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Introduction
Document at a glance:
Type – Market forecast report, covering 2010 to 2015
Geography covered – Worldwide
Printed page length – 36
Number of figures – 32
In this report we provide our forecasts for smartphone sales year by year to 2015, separated by the
following regions:










Western Europe
Eastern Europe
Asia Pacific
Japan
China
North America
United States
South America
Middle East and Africa

We forecast that worldwide sales of smartphones will total 2.5bn units throughout 2010 to 2015. We
also anticipate that sales will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 24% by the end of this
period.
Smartphone sales throughout Asia Pacific will grow by +26% CAGR, and units sold in the region will
total 0.83bn during the 2010-2015 forecast period. China will dominate smartphone sales. Despite
selling only 7m smartphones in the final quarter of 2009, we forecast that sales in China will rise by
+29% CAGR, to reach 98m in 2015, driven partly by falling prices, 3G roll out and a burgeoning
middle class.
Other forecasts show that North America smartphone sales will grow by +23% CAGR, and Central and
South America by +33% CAGR. Smartphone sales across the Americas will total 0.83bn during the
forecast period.
Smartphone sales in Western Europe will rise by +20% CAGR, dominated by sales in UK, France,
Germany and Spain. Sales in Eastern Europe will grow by +25% CAGR, and sales in Middle East and
Africa will rise by +21% CAGR.
In this report, we contextualise smartphone shipment forecasts with handset penetration data, 3G
forecasts, and discussion.
Our forecasts are crucial for helping organizations to understand future device usage, mobile internet
access, content consumption/creation, and opportunities. They are essential reading for mobile
carriers; vendors; consultants; financial analysts; application, content and service providers, and
anyone else with an interest in the future of mobile devices, content, and the mobile internet.

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Contents, and tables of figures and forecasts
Contents

Figures

Methodology........................................................................ 5

Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure

Global smartphone sales summary..................................... 6
Why smartphones are important ......................................... 6
2009 smartphone sales by smartphone brand....................... 6
1 Qtr 2010 v 1 Qtr 2009 smartphone sales ........................... 7
Global smartphone sales, 2009-2015 ................................... 8
Regional smartphone sales summary, 2009-2015 ............. 9
Western Europe................................................................. 10
Mobile handset penetration ...............................................10
3G subscribers, 2009-2014 ................................................10
Smartphone sales, 2009-2015............................................11
Eastern Europe .................................................................. 13
Mobile handset penetration ...............................................13
3G subscribers, 2009-2014 ................................................13
Smartphone sales, 2009-2015............................................14
Russia .....................................................................15
Asia Pacific, including Japan............................................. 17
Mobile handset penetration ...............................................17
3G subscribers, 2009-2014 ................................................18
Smartphone sales, 2009-2015............................................19
Focus on China.........................................................20
Central and South America ............................................... 23
Mobile handset penetration ...............................................23
3G subscribers, 2009-2014 ................................................23
Smartphone sales, 2009-2015............................................24
Brazil .......................................................................25
North America ................................................................... 26
Mobile handset penetration ...............................................26
3G Connections, 2009-2014...............................................26
Smartphone sales, 2009-2015............................................27
Focus on the United States ................................................27
Breakdown of subscriptions by major operator.............27
All subscribers, 2009-2015 .........................................28
Smartphone vs feature phone subscribers, Dec 2009 vs
Mar 2010...........................................................28
Smartphone shipments 2009, by operating system.......29
Smartphone shipments 2010 forecast, by operating
system ..............................................................29
Smartphone shipments, 2009-2015 ............................30
Mobile internet user split: smartphones vs feature phones,
2009-2015.........................................................30
Mobile internet users via smartphones, 2009-2015.......31
Mobile internet users by smartphone brand .................31
Middle East and Africa ...................................................... 33
Mobile handset penetration ...............................................33
3G connections, 2009-2014 ...............................................34
Smartphone sales, 2009-2015............................................34

1. 2009 smartphone sales by brand .................................7
2. Smartphone sales by brand 1 Qtr 10 vs 1 Qtr 09 ...........7
3. Global smartphone sales, 2009-2015............................8
4. Smartphone sales – regional summary, 2009-2015........9
5. Western Europe – countries with highest mobile
handset penetration ..................................................... 10
Figure 6. 3G subscriptions – Western Europe, 2009-2014 ..........11
Figure 7. Smartphone penetration (m) across top five
Western European countries.......................................... 12
Figure 8. Smartphone penetration (%) across top five
Western European countries.......................................... 12
Figure 9. Smartphone sales – Western Europe, 2009-2015 ........ 12
Figure 10. Eastern Europe – countries with highest mobile
handset penetration ..................................................... 13
Figure 11. 3G subscriptions – Eastern Europe, 2009-2014..........14
Figure 12. Smartphone sales – Eastern Europe, 2009-2015........ 14
Figure 13. Asia Pacific – countries with highest mobile
handset penetration ..................................................... 17
Figure 14. 3G subscriptions - Asia Pacific (excl Japan), 20092014 ........................................................................... 18
Figure 15. 3G subscriptions - Japan, 2009-2014........................ 19
Figure 16. Smartphone sales – Asia Pacific (excl Japan),
2009-2015 ...................................................................20
Figure 17. Smartphone sales – Japan, 2009-2015 ..................... 20
Figure 18. Smartphone sales – China, 2009-2015......................21
Figure 19. Central and South America – countries with
highest mobile handset penetration................................ 23
Figure 20. 3G subscriptions – Central and South America,
2009-2014 ...................................................................24
Figure 21. Smartphone sales – Central and South America,
2009-2015 ...................................................................25
Figure 22. 3G subscriptions – North America, 2009-2014 ........... 26
Figure 23. Smartphone sales – North America, 2009-2015 ........ 27
Figure 24. North America – subscriptions by operator............... 27
Figure 25. Feature phone vs smartphone users, Mar 2010 ......... 28
Figure 26. Smartphone shipments by operating system, 2009 ....29
Figure 27. Smartphone shipments by operating system, 2010
forecast ....................................................................... 29
Figure 28. Mobile internet user split: smartphone users vs
feature phone users...................................................... 30
Figure 29. Mobile internet user penetration across
smartphone brands ...................................................... 32
Figure 30. Middle East and Africa – countries with highest
mobile handset penetration ...........................................33
Figure 31. 3G subscriptions – Middle East and Africa, 20092014 ........................................................................... 34
Figure 32. Smartphone sales – Middle East and Africa, 20092015 ........................................................................... 35

About Coda Research Consultancy ................................... 36

4

Coda Research Consultancy

About Coda Research Consultancy

Coda Research Consultancy specializes in providing critical insight into market developments and
behavior around new media, technologies and services in order to help IT and media professionals,
business executives, and investors make fact-based decisions around strategy, service provision and
product development.
Coda employs a variety of rigorous quantitative and qualitative research procedures. It draws upon a
range of disciplines, and collaborates with top commercial and academic organizations.
Coda Research Consultancy is led by Dr Steve Smith, an internationally acknowledged research
specialist with extensive experience consulting for media and technology companies globally.
To find out more, visit www.codarc.co.uk, or contact us below:
European office
95 Wodeland Avenue
Guildford
Surrey
GU2 4LD
England
Tel: +44(0)7779 610004
Email: steve.smith@codarc.co.uk

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