You are on page 1of 241

APPENDIX SRES VERSION 1.

1
NOTE: Version 1.1 of the GHG emissions associated with the 40 SRES
scenarios provided here are not completely identical to those in
Appendix VII of the SRES report as published by Cambridge University
Press (2000). In a small number of cases slight corrections were made
after the publication of the document to prevent negative emissions
which occurred as a result of the standardization procedure. The
changes, which were necessary in just a few scenarios and future
years, were relatively small. The corrected numbers presented here
are recommended for use in further impacts, adaptation and mitigation
analysis. The final gridded emissions data for sulfur dioxide,
methane, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxides, and non-methane VOCs in the
six illustrative scenarios were based on the version 1.1. emissions.
Technical Support Unit IPCC-WG3

A1 AIM
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1 AIM
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Population

5262

6117

6805

7493

8182

8439

8704

8538

8375

8030

7528

7056

20.9

26.7

37.9

56.5

89.1

127.1

181.3

235.1

304.7

377.4

446.6

528.5

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

50
36
111
51
38

50
38
124
53
49

38
50
155
89
73

36
62
197
134
104

26
75
231
194
143

0
75
264
239
218

0
75
302
295
331

0
60
334
335
438

0
49
369
380
581

0
39
388
410
709

0
31
387
421
798

0
25
387
432
898

285

314

405

532

669

819

1002

1180

1388

1550

1643

1741

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

93
143
73
6
50

99
167
91
8
48

134
209
147
16
38

163
238
196
30
61

179
239
298
53
85

182
226
372
81
128

186
214
465
123
193

165
188
519
125
247

148
166
578
127
315

126
149
604
116
360

103
136
590
95
368

84
125
576
78
376

10
376

12
424

15
559

23
711

40
895

82
1098

167
1347

278
1574

464
1840

662
2034

808
2128

987
2226

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.1
0.1
0.1

1.1
1.7
0.9

2.2
3.6
2.1

3.7
5.8
3.8

5.4
8.2
6.3

7.0
10.2
9.3

9.1
12.7
13.9

10.5
14.4
18.2

12.2
16.3
23.9

13.6
18.0
29.8

14.7
19.4
35.5

15.9
20.8
42.2

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

169.6

287.2

422.8

571.9

730.6

892.5

1051.1

1205.7

1353.1

1492.1

1459
3389
0
4296
3805
12949

1466
3404
0
4237
3842
12949

1462
3429
0
4173
3886
12949

1457
3446
74
4164
3807
12949

1454
3458
158
4164
3715
12949

1448
3478
257
4177
3554
12949

1442
3498
418
4190
3400
12949

1436
3525
484
4194
3299
12949

1429
3552
560
4199
3201
12949

1424
3568
580
4202
3173
12949

1422
3572
536
4203
3213
12949

1420
3576
495
4204
3253
12949

9.68
1.20
10.88
373
7.0
87.1
791
31
43
1002
178
39

12.12
0.52
12.64
421
7.2
100.2
337
43
48
1032
222
46

14.01
0.47
14.48
466
7.3
91.0
369
61
66
1109
266
50

14.95
0.40
15.35
458
7.4
68.9
482
77
99
1160
272
49

16.01
0.37
16.38
452
7.4
64.1
566
89
119
1214
279
48

15.70
0.30
16.00
410
7.3
46.9
654
97
127
1245
284
46

15.43
0.30
15.73
373
7.2
35.7
659
106
113
1276
289
44

14.83
0.35
15.18
341
7.1
30.7
654
114
88
1357
269
43

13.94
0.36
14.30
314
7.1
29.1
639
119
84
1499
228
41

13.10
0.39
13.49
289
7.0
27.6
614
115
95
1663
193
40

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 2 of 241

5.99
1.11
7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38
879
139
31

6.90
1.07
7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40
877
141
32

A1 AIM

Page 3 of 241

A1 AIM
OECD90 - A1 AIM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

859

919

960

1002

1043

1062

1081

1086

1091

1097

1103

1110

16.4

20.5

25.3

31.0

38.0

45.4

54.1

64.1

75.9

89.2

103.9

121.1

6
10
64
25
22

1
9
74
30
27

0
9
77
40
33

0
9
82
50
40

0
8
80
63
48

0
7
77
66
58

0
6
75
68
70

0
5
74
72
87

0
3
73
76
108

0
3
71
78
129

0
2
69
78
151

0
1
67
78
175

127

142

158

180

199

209

218

239

261

282

301

321

41
76
34
5
6

41
90
47
6
1

41
92
58
10
0

35
89
70
16
4

30
78
83
23
9

29
65
89
24
17

28
54
95
24
29

22
46
99
23
37

17
39
102
23
48

12
34
102
20
54

9
32
99
18
56

7
30
96
15
57

6
167

6
191

8
209

11
226

16
239

24
253

35
267

55
293

86
321

120
348

152
372

192
397

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.1
0.0

0.4
0.9
0.4

0.9
1.8
1.0

1.2
2.7
1.6

1.6
3.6
2.4

1.8
4.2
3.1

2.1
4.9
4.2

2.3
5.3
5.0

2.6
5.8
6.0

2.7
6.2
7.1

2.8
6.5
8.0

2.9
6.8
9.1

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

63.4

98.4

133.6

168.1

202.0

234.1

263.6

291.1

316.9

340.9

381
760
0
1050
838
3029

380
763
0
1053
833
3029

377
771
0
1052
828
3029

376
774
11
1053
814
3029

375
776
24
1056
798
3029

372
787
39
1062
765
3029

368
797
63
1068
733
3029

364
818
73
1061
711
3029

359
839
85
1054
690
3029

356
849
88
1050
685
3029

356
847
81
1049
695
3029

355
846
75
1048
705
3029

3.41
0.05
3.45
71
2.5
9.9
110
13
14
190
39
12

3.51
0.03
3.54
69
2.6
6.9
108
11
5
205
39
12

3.48
0.02
3.50
66
2.5
6.4
115
9
6
227
38
9

3.42
0.00
3.42
58
2.5
6.3
118
8
7
234
33
7

3.36
-0.01
3.35
52
2.4
6.3
122
9
9
241
28
6

3.06
0.01
3.06
49
2.4
6.0
123
10
11
242
24
6

2.78
0.06
2.84
47
2.3
5.7
123
12
13
243
19
6

2.56
0.11
2.67
46
2.3
5.3
124
13
16
247
17
5

2.40
0.09
2.48
44
2.2
5.0
125
14
18
254
16
5

2.24
0.07
2.31
42
2.2
4.6
125
16
20
262
15
5

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 4 of 241

2.83
0.00
2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
23
179
42
13

3.20
0.00
3.20
74
2.6
17.0
58
13
23
161
36
12

A1 AIM
REF - A1 AIM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

413

419

424

430

435

429

423

406

391

374

356

339

1.1

0.8

1.5

2.9

5.3

8.1

12.4

15.6

19.6

24.0

28.6

34.2

2
9
19
19
8

4
5
10
11
8

0
5
9
18
10

0
6
9
23
13

0
5
8
31
15

0
5
7
38
20

0
4
7
46
28

0
3
7
47
33

0
2
7
49
40

0
2
7
50
46

0
1
7
50
50

0
1
6
50
55

58

38

43

50

59

70

84

91

99

105

109

113

18
22
26
1
2

12
14
18
1
4

14
12
26
2
0

14
10
33
4
1

13
7
41
6
2

12
7
48
7
4

11
6
55
8
8

9
5
56
8
10

7
4
56
8
12

5
3
56
7
14

4
3
55
6
14

3
2
54
5
15

1
71

1
51

1
56

2
64

3
72

6
86

15
103

22
112

32
122

42
129

51
134

61
139

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.3

0.3
0.3
0.5

0.4
0.4
0.8

0.6
0.5
1.1

0.7
0.6
1.5

0.8
0.7
2.1

0.9
0.7
2.6

1.0
0.7
3.2

1.1
0.8
3.7

1.1
0.8
4.3

1.1
0.8
4.9

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

21.8

33.7

45.1

56.3

67.1

77.2

86.5

95.2

103.3

110.9

268
341
0
966
701
2276

266
361
0
950
698
2276

265
364
0
918
728
2276

265
366
3
904
738
2276

265
367
6
894
745
2276

264
368
10
899
733
2276

263
370
16
905
722
2276

262
371
19
909
715
2276

262
371
22
912
708
2276

261
372
23
916
703
2276

260
373
21
922
700
2276

260
374
20
927
696
2276

1.05
0.20
1.24
58
0.6
12.2
8
5
8
41
15
3

1.11
0.03
1.14
61
0.6
10.8
19
8
10
41
14
3

1.13
0.01
1.14
60
0.6
7.5
29
14
14
42
15
3

1.16
-0.06
1.10
51
0.6
4.3
31
20
18
42
15
2

1.18
-0.13
1.05
42
0.6
2.4
32
21
21
43
16
2

1.08
-0.11
0.97
41
0.6
2.0
33
22
19
42
17
2

0.99
-0.09
0.90
39
0.6
1.7
33
23
15
42
17
2

0.91
-0.07
0.84
38
0.6
1.6
34
24
14
42
17
1

0.84
-0.05
0.79
36
0.5
1.6
33
25
10
43
18
1

0.78
-0.03
0.75
34
0.5
1.6
31
24
11
44
18
1

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 5 of 241

1.30
0.00
1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8
69
16
5

0.91
0.00
0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6
41
13
3

A1 AIM
ASIA - A1 AIM
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2798

3261

3556

3851

4147

4183

4220

4016

3822

3541

3194

2882

1.5

2.7

5.8

12.3

26.2

40.5

62.7

85.4

116.2

147.6

174.9

207.3

28
15
11
2
5

25
22
17
3
8

18
34
30
8
15

14
44
48
17
27

4
56
65
37
44

0
56
75
51
72

0
57
87
70
117

0
47
99
90
161

0
39
112
115
223

0
31
118
136
280

0
25
115
147
319

0
20
112
160
363

61

75

105

151

205

261

331

404

495

567

610

655

30
17
4
0
28

39
27
8
0
24

64
45
17
2
19

87
62
35
6
20

108
68
66
15
19

106
59
95
26
29

104
51
137
45
46

94
44
167
47
58

86
38
203
50
75

73
33
228
46
85

59
30
235
38
87

48
27
243
32
89

1
80

2
100

2
149

4
214

10
285

24
354

58
440

101
533

177
646

261
734

323
784

399
838

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.2
0.1

0.9
0.6
0.2

1.6
1.1
0.4

2.6
1.8
0.9

3.5
2.3
1.7

4.7
3.0
3.0

5.6
3.4
4.3

6.5
3.8
6.2

7.4
4.2
8.4

8.0
4.5
10.6

8.7
4.8
13.3

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

44.2

81.3

128.7

183.5

241.6

301.6

362.2

422.7

481.2

537.1

438
608
0
535
583
2164

435
606
0
522
601
2164

434
609
0
512
609
2164

433
611
17
524
579
2164

432
613
37
535
547
2164

431
615
61
535
514
2164

431
617
99
535
483
2164

430
618
115
544
455
2164

429
619
133
552
429
2164

428
621
137
556
421
2164

428
622
127
555
431
2164

428
624
117
555
441
2164

2.92
0.33
3.25
145
2.6
42.1
18
8
12
358
49
13

4.11
0.05
4.16
171
2.7
54.2
45
15
19
360
70
16

5.21
0.12
5.32
207
2.8
45.6
92
23
28
430
94
19

5.46
0.17
5.64
210
2.9
19.8
153
30
42
460
99
19

5.73
0.25
5.98
214
3.0
8.4
224
35
50
492
105
19

5.86
0.16
6.02
183
2.9
7.9
292
39
55
506
112
17

5.99
0.11
6.10
156
2.9
7.5
292
43
48
520
119
16

5.89
0.10
5.99
138
2.9
7.1
285
46
35
555
111
15

5.57
0.14
5.71
127
2.9
6.7
275
48
33
614
90
14

5.27
0.19
5.46
117
2.9
6.4
262
46
37
678
73
13

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 6 of 241

1.15
0.37
1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4
235
33
7

1.78
0.26
2.03
125
2.6
25.3
5
5
7
270
37
9

A1 AIM
ALM - A1 AIM
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1192

1519

1865

2211

2557

2761

2980

3024

3067

3013

2866

2727

1.9

2.7

5.3

10.3

19.5

31.9

52.0

69.4

92.5

116.6

139.1

165.9

14
1
17
4
4

20
2
22
9
6

20
2
38
25
15

22
4
58
43
24

22
6
78
64
36

0
7
102
84
65

0
7
133
112
117

0
6
153
125
156

0
5
176
139
210

0
4
191
147
254

0
3
196
145
278

0
2
202
144
304

40

59

100

151

205

275

369

443

532

596

623

652

5
27
9
0
14

7
36
18
0
18

16
60
46
1
19

26
77
58
4
36

29
86
108
9
55

35
94
139
20
78

42
104
178
45
110

40
94
196
45
141

38
85
215
46
181

35
78
217
42
206

30
71
200
33
211

26
65
184
26
215

2
57

3
81

4
146

6
208

12
299

26
401

59
538

100
635

168
750

238
822

282
837

335
852

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.3
0.1

0.2
0.8
0.5

0.4
1.5
1.0

0.7
2.3
1.8

0.9
3.1
2.9

1.4
4.2
4.7

1.7
5.0
6.3

2.1
6.0
8.4

2.5
6.9
10.6

2.8
7.6
12.5

1.7
6.7
12.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

40.2

73.8

115.4

164.0

219.9

279.6

338.8

396.7

451.7

503.1

371
1680
0
1745
1684
5480

385
1673
0
1711
1710
5480

384
1685
0
1690
1720
5480

383
1695
42
1683
1676
5480

382
1702
90
1680
1625
5480

381
1708
147
1681
1542
5480

381
1714
240
1682
1463
5480

380
1718
277
1681
1417
5480

379
1722
321
1680
1373
5480

379
1726
332
1678
1363
5480

378
1730
307
1676
1387
5480

378
1733
284
1674
1411
5480

0.72
0.73
1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
3
396
48
7

1.01
0.82
1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5
404
55
8

2.30
0.63
2.93
99
1.3
20.0
15
5
10
413
75
11

3.40
0.40
3.80
120
1.3
25.3
39
9
14
427
99
15

4.20
0.32
4.52
134
1.3
28.4
81
14
19
410
119
19

4.91
0.29
5.20
139
1.4
35.5
139
19
32
424
124
20

5.73
0.26
5.99
144
1.4
44.1
184
23
40
439
129
21

5.70
0.25
5.94
137
1.4
28.0
205
26
42
455
131
21

5.67
0.23
5.90
130
1.4
17.8
210
28
37
472
134
21

5.47
0.21
5.68
120
1.4
13.7
210
30
23
513
124
21

5.13
0.19
5.32
107
1.4
12.8
206
31
24
588
105
21

4.81
0.16
4.97
95
1.4
12.1
196
30
26
679
88
21

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 7 of 241

A1 ASF
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1 ASF
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Population

5264

6117

6827

7537

8039

8526

8704

8527

8444

8022

7282

7056

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

20.9

28.9

41.3

60.7

87.9

146.0

174.3

225.7

257.3

367.8

484.9

531.9

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

56
123
51
43

68
177
63
57

87
243
93
84

105
349
154
122

89
398
196
225

74
447
237
327

59
496
278
429

53
494
268
533

48
492
257
637

43
486
229
711

39
476
183
755

35
465
137
798

273

365

507

730

907

1085

1262

1348

1434

1469

1452

1436

97
141
74
8
0

118
202
87
14
0

154
283
126
18
2

212
381
206
26
27

368
302
278
72
57

523
223
349
117
88

679
143
421
163
119

673
87
391
191
145

667
31
361
218
171

669
3
286
252
198

680
2
166
292
224

691
1
47
332
250

6
326

9
430

16
600

23
875

44
1121

65
1366

86
1611

173
1660

259
1708

312
1719

329
1693

346
1667

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

1.2
1.8
0.9

2.5
4.3
1.9

4.4
7.6
3.6

7.3
11.0
6.0

11.8
13.5
9.2

17.8
15.3
13.1

24.6
16.4
17.1

31.3
16.9
20.8

37.9
17.0
24.0

44.7
17.0
26.2

51.5
17.0
27.0

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

170.8

306.0

488.7

709.7

960.5

1216.8

1454.8

1674.9

1878.2

2065.5

-1.8

-1.8

-1.7

-1.7

-1.7

-1.7

-1.6

-1.6

-1.5

-1.5

-1.4

-1.4

5.99
1.11
7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38
879
139
31

6.90
1.07
7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40
877
141
32

10.01
1.12
11.13
377
8.1
84.7
791
31
43
1068
165
45

14.67
1.24
15.91
444
9.6
116.5
337
43
48
1248
207
66

19.49
1.13
20.62
518
10.7
110.0
369
61
66
1567
248
83

22.60
0.98
23.59
577
11.2
84.7
482
77
99
1698
274
91

25.72
0.84
26.56
636
11.8
59.5
566
89
119
1830
301
100

24.14
0.58
24.72
616
11.5
54.0
654
97
127
1837
346
94

22.55
0.32
22.87
596
11.2
48.6
659
106
113
1845
392
88

20.97
0.18
21.15
571
10.8
46.1
654
114
88
1832
442
84

19.37
0.16
19.53
540
10.2
46.6
639
119
84
1798
497
80

17.78
0.14
17.92
510
9.7
47.0
614
115
95
1763
552
77

Million

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 8 of 241

A1 ASF

Page 9 of 241

A1 ASF
OECD90 - A1 ASF

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

849

919

961

1003

1035

1069

1081

1085

1088

1096

1106

1110

15.7

20.1

25.2

31.0

37.8

50.1

55.0

65.2

71.0

91.7

118.0

128.4

13
69
28
24

13
88
33
29

14
95
36
35

15
95
40
42

13
87
41
52

12
80
41
62

11
72
41
72

10
68
39
86

8
63
36
101

8
62
32
115

7
65
26
129

7
68
20
144

133

163

179

192

193

195

196

202

209

217

227

238

32
77
35
7
0

29
97
40
11
0

32
107
44
12
1

39
102
52
13
8

61
72
55
18
12

83
43
59
24
17

106
13
62
30
21

93
8
57
35
26

80
3
51
39
30

78
0
39
47
35

87
0
21
57
40

96
0
4
68
45

5
157

7
184

9
205

11
224

13
233

15
241

18
250

29
247

41
244

49
249

55
260

60
272

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.3
1.0
0.4

0.6
2.0
0.8

1.0
3.0
1.3

1.5
3.9
1.9

2.2
4.4
2.4

3.2
4.7
3.0

4.2
4.8
3.6

5.0
4.8
4.2

5.8
4.8
4.6

6.6
4.8
4.9

7.6
4.8
5.0

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

63.8

100.6

140.1

180.7

220.5

257.4

289.3

317.3

343.7

369.9

2.83
0.00
2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
23
179
42
13

3.20
0.00
3.20
74
2.6
17.0
58
13
23
161
36
12

3.53
0.00
3.53
77
2.7
7.9
110
13
14
169
41
14

3.82
0.00
3.82
83
3.0
8.5
108
11
5
164
45
15

4.09
0.00
4.09
92
3.0
8.2
115
9
6
152
45
15

4.02
0.00
4.02
100
3.0
7.4
118
8
7
124
42
14

3.94
0.00
3.94
108
2.9
6.7
122
9
9
97
38
13

3.44
0.00
3.44
114
2.8
6.6
123
10
11
90
41
11

2.93
0.00
2.93
121
2.7
6.4
123
12
13
83
43
10

2.66
0.00
2.66
125
2.6
6.8
124
13
16
81
48
9

2.63
0.00
2.63
126
2.6
7.5
125
14
18
86
55
9

2.60
0.00
2.60
128
2.5
8.3
125
16
20
90
62
9

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 10 of 241

A1 ASF
REF - A1 ASF

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

417

419

425

431

432

425

423

406

398

374

347

339

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.0

1.0

1.4

2.2

3.6

5.9

7.0

9.1

10.3

14.8

20.1

22.2

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

18
16
16
8

12
12
13
8

12
13
18
10

12
15
24
14

10
16
26
17

9
16
29
21

8
17
31
24

6
16
28
27

5
15
26
30

3
15
22
32

3
15
17
32

2
15
12
32

58

44

53

65

70

74

79

77

76

72

67

61

23
18
27
1
0

13
13
22
1
0

15
15
29
2
0

18
17
38
2
0

18
18
38
5
0

19
19
39
7
1

19
19
39
9
1

17
12
34
10
7

14
5
30
11
14

13
1
23
11
18

12
0
15
12
21

12
0
6
13
23

5
74

5
56

6
66

6
82

7
87

8
92

9
97

13
93

16
89

18
84

18
78

18
73

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.3

0.3
0.3
0.5

0.5
0.5
0.9

0.7
0.7
1.2

0.9
0.8
1.6

1.1
1.0
2.0

1.2
1.2
2.4

1.4
1.3
2.7

1.5
1.3
3.0

1.6
1.3
3.1

1.8
1.3
3.2

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

21.0

32.8

45.9

58.8

70.9

81.7

90.7

98.2

104.1

108.7

1.30
0.00
1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8
69
16
5

0.91
0.00
0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6
41
13
3

1.07
0.00
1.07
45
0.6
10.5
8
5
8
42
17
3

1.29
0.00
1.29
59
0.7
10.1
19
8
10
41
25
4

1.34
0.00
1.34
81
0.7
8.8
29
14
14
47
29
5

1.25
0.00
1.25
102
0.7
6.9
31
20
18
48
28
5

1.16
0.00
1.16
124
0.7
5.0
32
21
21
49
28
4

0.99
0.00
0.99
121
0.6
4.0
33
22
19
48
28
4

0.82
0.00
0.82
118
0.6
3.0
33
23
15
47
28
3

0.67
0.00
0.67
108
0.6
2.2
34
24
14
47
31
2

0.53
0.00
0.53
91
0.5
1.7
33
25
10
48
35
2

0.39
0.00
0.39
73
0.5
1.1
31
24
11
49
40
2

Population

Million

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 11 of 241

A1 ASF
ASIA - A1 ASF
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2780

3261

3572

3884

4073

4181

4220

4012

3913

3538

3033

2882

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.7

3.5

7.2

14.1

24.2

47.5

59.5

79.6

92.2

134.9

175.7

191.9

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

24
15
3
6

42
37
8
13

59
72
21
25

73
133
53
43

57
161
72
110

42
190
92
177

26
218
111
243

23
219
106
290

20
220
101
337

17
217
88
363

15
210
69
368

13
202
50
374

48

100

177

301

400

500

599

638

677

685

662

638

36
19
4
0
0

67
46
11
1
0

92
89
28
4
0

129
144
68
9
11

211
110
107
38
21

293
77
145
67
31

375
43
184
96
41

365
26
168
108
44

356
9
152
120
47

348
0
118
133
53

342
0
66
147
63

336
0
13
161
73

5
64

5
130

8
221

11
371

24
511

38
650

51
789

95
806

139
823

161
814

162
780

163
746

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.6
0.3
0.1

1.4
1.0
0.3

2.5
2.2
0.7

4.2
3.4
1.6

6.7
4.3
2.9

10.1
4.9
4.5

13.8
5.2
6.3

17.4
5.4
7.9

20.9
5.4
9.2

24.3
5.4
10.1

27.7
5.4
10.4

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

47.4

100.9

183.7

290.5

415.8

546.1

668.3

782.2

887.9

985.5

1.15
0.37
1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4
235
33
7

1.78
0.26
2.03
125
2.6
25.3
5
5
7
270
37
9

3.55
0.34
3.89
146
3.2
47.2
18
8
12
374
43
16

6.41
0.39
6.80
167
4.1
67.9
45
15
19
471
54
27

9.43
0.33
9.76
190
4.7
58.5
92
23
28
629
66
36

11.34
0.26
11.60
206
5.0
38.4
153
30
42
711
75
42

13.26
0.19
13.45
222
5.4
18.3
224
35
50
792
84
47

12.50
0.13
12.62
208
5.2
15.6
292
39
55
802
95
44

11.73
0.07
11.80
193
5.0
12.9
292
43
48
811
105
40

10.95
0.03
10.98
183
4.7
11.7
285
46
35
804
115
37

10.15
0.01
10.16
179
4.4
12.0
275
48
33
778
123
35

9.35
0.00
9.34
174
4.0
12.3
262
46
37
753
132
32

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 12 of 241

A1 ASF
ALM - A1 ASF
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1218

1519

1869

2218

2500

2851

2980

3023

3044

3013

2795

2727

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

2.6

4.3

7.4

13.3

22.3

42.5

52.8

71.8

83.8

126.6

171.2

189.4

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

1
23
5
5

2
40
9
8

3
63
18
14

5
106
37
24

8
134
56
46

11
161
76
68

14
189
95
90

15
191
95
130

15
193
94
170

15
192
87
202

15
186
71
225

14
180
55
249

34

58

98

172

244

316

388

430

473

495

497

499

5
26
9
0
0

9
45
14
0
0

15
72
25
1
1

26
118
48
2
8

77
101
78
11
24

128
85
107
19
40

179
68
136
28
56

198
42
132
38
68

217
15
128
48
81

230
2
106
61
91

238
1
65
75
100

246
1
24
90
110

5
44

5
74

7
121

8
211

13
304

17
396

22
489

49
528

77
566

96
586

108
588

120
590

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.4
0.1

0.2
1.0
0.3

0.4
1.9
0.7

0.9
3.0
1.3

1.9
3.9
2.2

3.5
4.7
3.5

5.4
5.2
4.8

7.5
5.4
6.1

9.7
5.5
7.3

12.1
5.5
8.1

14.5
5.5
8.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

38.7

71.8

119.0

179.7

253.3

331.6

406.5

477.2

542.4

601.4

0.72
0.73
1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
3
396
48
7

1.01
0.82
1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5
404
55
8

1.86
0.78
2.63
109
1.6
16.1
15
5
10
483
64
12

3.15
0.85
4.00
135
1.9
27.1
39
9
14
572
82
19

4.63
0.80
5.42
155
2.3
31.5
81
14
19
738
107
27

5.99
0.72
6.71
168
2.5
29.0
139
19
32
815
129
31

7.36
0.65
8.00
182
2.8
26.4
184
23
40
892
151
36

7.21
0.45
7.66
173
2.8
24.9
205
26
42
898
183
36

7.07
0.25
7.32
164
2.9
23.3
210
28
37
904
216
35

6.68
0.15
6.83
155
2.8
22.5
210
30
23
900
249
35

6.06
0.14
6.21
145
2.8
22.4
206
31
24
886
283
34

5.44
0.14
5.58
135
2.7
22.3
196
30
26
872
317
33

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 13 of 241

A1 IMAGE
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1 IMAGE
1990
Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)

Trillion US$
1990 US$/c

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100
7047

5280

6122

6892

7618

8196

8547

8708

8671

8484

8142

7663

21.0
3971.0

26.7
4357.0

37.9
5503.0

55.9
7342.0

81.2
9907.0

116.2
13598.0

163.5
18772.0

219.4
25300.0

283.2
33383.0

365.2
44853.0

446.4
58248.0

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

54
43
106
46
39
2
289

59
44
119
55
55
4
336

65
45
146
73
88
11
429

63
52
177
84
147
29
551

59
59
198
90
220
50
677

50
66
213
100
307
68
804

40
69
209
119
373
85
895

38
65
204
134
410
93
944

35
59
200
145
427
93
959

32
52
190
154
428
92
950

29
47
175
157
408
91
907

25
40
161
156
376
85
843

Primary Energy
EJ
Coal
Oil
Gas
Non-Fossil Electric
Biomass

105
129
62
8
3

111
143
73
14
4

129
187
117
23
12

170
242
163
39
35

245
285
188
61
69

298
300
222
91
102

301
348
259
128
129

271
352
278
162
141

237
340
283
193
138

198
320
278
218
133

163
280
264
230
128

129
237
244
230
116

61
368

69
416

77
544

76
725

74
923

68
1080

59
1224

58
1262

56
1246

54
1201

51
1116

48
1002

Cumulative Resources Production ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

1.1
1.3
0.6

2.3
3.0
1.6

3.7
5.1
3.0

5.8
7.8
4.8

8.5
10.7
6.8

11.6
14.0
9.2

14.5
17.5
11.9

17.0
21.0
14.7

19.2
24.3
17.5

21.0
27.3
20.3

22.4
29.9
22.8

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

161.5

268.4

404.0

567.1

748.7

934.5

1116.8

1291.7

1451.8

1594.1

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

2.1

1.7

2.7

4.0

5.3

5.8

5.9

5.7

5.2

5.2

5.2

Land Use

Million ha
1435
3435
8
4277
3916
13071

1382
3295
10
4266
4119
13071

1450
3313
26
4224
4058
13071

1524
3362
82
4251
3853
13071

1573
3381
177
4147
3793
13071

1571
3271
274
4132
3824
13071

1530
3064
374
4173
3931
13071

1490
2849
404
4256
4072
13071

1439
2705
391
4362
4174
13071

1355
2597
384
4490
4246
13071

1295
2505
367
4564
4340
13071

5.99
1.11
7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38
879
139
31

6.90
1.07
7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40
877
141
32

8.50
0.77
9.27
360
7.5
77.5
791
31
43
832
144
38

11.10
1.01
12.11
423
8.6
90.9
337
43
48
978
157
48

14.30
0.71
15.00
475
9.3
108.5
369
61
66
1054
163
57

17.60
0.02
17.61
499
9.9
121.0
482
77
99
913
159
63

18.70
0.02
18.71
512
10.3
119.5
566
89
119
949
158
63

18.40
0.05
18.45
523
10.3
114.8
654
97
127
1012
154
63

17.80
0.22
18.02
525
10.2
106.8
659
106
113
1089
152
61

16.40
0.56
16.96
513
9.8
95.5
654
114
88
1141
149
57

14.60
0.47
15.07
488
9.7
83.0
639
119
84
1110
142
51

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 14 of 241

518.8
73621.0 NOT ppp-corrected

NOT use but Production

4.6 Net Ecosystem Production (NEP)

1208 Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species
2347 Permanent pasture: FAO category 'land for grass & fodder species'
334
4700
4483
13071

12.90
0.50 Approximate calculation from complex land-use module
13.39
452
9.1
71.2
614
115
95
1080
133
45

A1 IMAGE

Page 15 of 241

A1 IMAGE
OECD90 - A1 IMAGE

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100 Remarks

799

849

890

932

965

990

1001

1005

1009

1020

1029

1032

16.5
20648.9

20.2
23840.3

26.9
30131.7

35.6
38187.4

44.3
45863.7

53.0
53609.2

62.4
62283.6

71.3
70840.8

77.9
77152.1

88.7
87018.1

101.2
98251.1

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

5
8
57
24
24
2
120

5
7
62
27
36
3
141

5
7
68
30
52
5
168

5
8
71
31
66
10
191

5
8
67
32
74
16
203

5
8
61
35
76
22
207

5
8
53
40
76
26
208

5
8
49
43
76
27
207

4
8
47
45
75
27
207

4
8
46
49
76
26
209

4
8
44
52
77
26
212

4
8
42
55
78
26
214

Primary Energy
EJ
Coal
Oil
Gas
Non-Fossil Electric
Biomass

37
67
28
7
2

47
76
36
12
3

51
84
46
19
5

51
88
52
29
10

51
84
51
36
16

48
67
51
40
23

46
65
53
42
25

42
60
55
45
28

37
57
56
46
28

35
56
58
48
27

32
54
61
51
28

30
50
64
54
24

10
151

10
183

10
216

11
240

11
248

11
240

11
242

11
240

11
236

11
235

11
237

11
233

Cumulative Resources Production ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.3
0.3

0.8
0.7
0.7

1.3
1.2
1.1

1.9
1.7
1.6

2.6
2.3
2.1

3.4
3.1
2.5

4.1
4.3
3.0

4.8
5.5
3.6

5.5
6.7
4.1

6.1
7.9
4.6

6.7
9.1
5.1

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

62.6

95.4

127.6

159.5

191.6

223.7

256.0

288.6

321.4

354.6

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.7

Land Use

Million ha
379
786
3
1115
955
3238

379
676
1
1167
1016
3238

378
584
3
1215
1059
3238

385
516
9
1259
1070
3238

382
487
20
1273
1076
3238

383
479
32
1272
1073
3238

391
472
43
1263
1070
3238

394
467
51
1256
1071
3238

395
462
55
1250
1076
3238

395
458
52
1252
1081
3238

399
459
52
1245
1083
3238

2.83
0.00
2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
23
179
42
13

3.20
0.00
3.20
74
2.6
17.0
58
13
23
161
36
12

3.20
0.10
3.30
78
2.7
13.4
110
13
14
177
37
13

3.20
0.06
3.26
81
2.7
12.5
108
11
5
182
37
13

3.20
-0.03
3.17
83
2.7
10.9
115
9
6
180
34
12

3.20
0.02
3.22
85
2.7
10.1
118
8
7
180
33
10

3.20
0.00
3.20
88
2.8
9.4
122
9
9
173
30
9

3.20
0.03
3.22
89
2.8
9.1
123
10
11
172
27
9

3.20
0.04
3.24
89
2.8
8.8
123
12
13
169
26
8

3.20
0.07
3.27
91
2.8
8.9
124
13
16
173
25
9

3.20
0.10
3.30
91
2.9
9.0
125
14
18
179
25
9

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)

Trillion US$
1990 US$/c

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 16 of 241

114.6
111071.1 NOT ppp-corrected

NOT use but Production

1.3 Net Ecosystem Production (NEP)

394 Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species
453 Permanent pasture: FAO category 'land for grass & fodder species'
43
1262
1087
3238

3.20
0.13 Approximate calculation from complex land-use module
3.33
86
2.9
8.9
125
16
20
177
23
8

A1 IMAGE
REF - A1 IMAGE

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100 Remarks

412

429

437

443

445

443

432

419

401

384

365

347

1.0
2307.2

0.7
1657.3

1.0
2378.6

2.0
4378.7

3.5
7868.6

5.9
13380.5

9.2
21343.7

13.0
30936.4

17.2
42882.5

22.7
59159.7

28.4
77741.4

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

3
14
21
15
9
0
62

2
10
12
11
5
1
41

2
7
12
10
7
1
40

2
6
15
12
15
1
50

2
5
16
12
22
2
59

2
6
16
11
30
3
68

2
5
15
11
34
4
71

2
5
15
10
34
4
70

2
5
14
10
32
4
67

1
4
13
10
31
4
63

1
4
12
9
29
4
59

1
3
11
9
27
4
56

Primary Energy
EJ
Coal
Oil
Gas
Non-Fossil Electric
Biomass

36
28
25
1
1

19
14
15
1
1

15
16
16
1
1

16
20
23
3
2

20
23
27
6
3

27
26
28
9
6

28
30
25
11
6

25
29
22
11
6

22
27
20
12
6

18
25
17
12
7

15
23
17
12
7

11
20
13
12
9

4
95

3
52

3
52

3
67

3
82

4
99

4
103

4
98

4
90

4
84

4
77

4
70

Cumulative Resources Production ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.2
0.2

0.5
0.3
0.4

0.7
0.4
0.6

1.0
0.5
1.1

1.4
0.7
1.7

1.8
1.0
2.4

2.3
1.2
3.0

2.7
1.5
3.6

3.0
1.8
4.3

3.3
2.1
4.9

3.4
2.3
5.4

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

20.1

29.7

40.0

51.7

65.4

79.5

93.0

106.4

119.4

131.9

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.4

0.2

0.5

0.8

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.4

Land Use

Million ha
278
392
1
1146
461
2278

223
307
0
1174
574
2278

229
329
1
1167
551
2278

227
339
6
1250
455
2278

224
333
19
1242
460
2278

218
310
46
1238
466
2278

207
279
84
1238
471
2278

199
258
87
1233
501
2278

189
238
92
1227
532
2278

179
234
83
1226
556
2278

169
226
83
1218
582
2278

1.30
0.00
1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8
69
16
5

0.91
0.00
0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6
41
13
3

0.91
-0.01
0.90
41
0.5
9.4
8
5
8
34
12
3

1.11
-0.09
1.02
51
0.6
9.7
19
8
10
38
12
3

1.31
-0.27
1.04
57
0.6
9.6
29
14
14
45
12
4

1.61
-0.30
1.31
58
0.7
10.6
31
20
18
52
13
4

1.61
-0.18
1.43
52
0.7
10.6
32
21
21
55
12
4

1.41
-0.03
1.38
52
0.7
9.9
33
22
19
56
12
4

1.31
0.02
1.33
51
0.7
8.9
33
23
15
56
12
4

1.21
0.15
1.36
47
0.6
7.8
34
24
14
56
12
4

1.01
0.24
1.25
43
0.6
6.8
33
25
10
54
11
3

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)

Trillion US$
1990 US$/c

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 17 of 241

34.3
98993.7 NOT ppp-corrected

NOT use but Production

1.3 Net Ecosystem Production (NEP)

164 Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species
221 Permanent pasture: FAO category 'land for grass & fodder species'
92
1200
600
2278

0.91
0.35 Approximate calculation from complex land-use module
1.26
40
0.6
5.8
31
24
11
52
11
3

A1 IMAGE
ASIA - A1 IMAGE

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100 Remarks
2886

Population

Million

2781

3246

3609

3929

4142

4235

4220

4088

3871

3594

3262

GNP/GDP (mex)

Trillion US$
1990 US$/c

1.4
337.2

2.7
531.9

4.7
873.7

8.7
1553.2

16.1
2837.7

28.8
5139.5

48.2
8819.4

73.2
13804.2

103.0
19837.3

139.3
27431.3

173.5
35626.4

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

29
20
12
2
4
0
68

33
24
21
8
9
1
96

33
26
29
17
20
3
127

30
29
38
23
42
12
174

26
32
49
27
75
23
232

20
35
59
30
119
33
295

14
33
58
39
150
40
334

13
30
57
45
166
42
352

11
27
55
47
173
40
352

10
23
51
49
171
38
341

8
19
46
47
159
35
314

7
15
42
43
139
31
277

Primary Energy
EJ
Coal
Oil
Gas
Non-Fossil Electric
Biomass

28
16
4
0
0

42
27
12
1
1

53
40
29
2
4

71
59
52
6
14

99
77
76
14
31

126
76
87
32
52

125
96
94
55
61

108
98
110
75
62

91
92
98
91
55

70
84
88
104
53

50
71
86
107
46

36
57
65
102
36

30
79

34
116

36
163

33
235

29
326

24
397

18
449

17
468

15
442

14
413

13
373

12
308

Cumulative Resources Production ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.2
0.1

0.8
0.4
0.2

1.3
0.7
0.4

1.9
1.1
0.7

2.7
1.5
1.1

3.6
1.8
1.5

4.5
2.2
2.1

5.1
2.5
2.5

5.7
2.8
3.0

6.1
3.0
3.5

6.4
3.2
3.8

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

42.1

76.2

123.5

184.2

251.8

317.7

378.5

432.7

478.4

515.6

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.6

0.7

0.5

0.3

0.1

0.4

0.7

Land Use

Million ha
382
561
1
488
545
1976

386
664
1
397
527
1976

396
692
3
369
515
1976

413
747
15
331
470
1976

428
770
53
286
439
1976

430
778
95
252
421
1976

409
697
142
244
484
1976

394
626
141
273
543
1976

372
601
117
335
551
1976

327
560
129
403
557
1976

306
539
126
438
566
1976

2.58
0.24
2.82
136
2.9
29.9
18
8
12
294
40
12

3.68
0.32
4.00
157
3.4
33.6
45
15
19
332
45
16

5.08
0.40
5.48
181
3.8
39.5
92
23
28
406
50
21

6.38
0.29
6.66
198
4.1
42.9
153
30
42
378
51
24

6.58
0.27
6.85
206
4.1
39.4
224
35
50
403
51
23

6.18
0.16
6.33
206
4.0
35.8
292
39
55
418
49
22

5.68
0.14
5.82
202
3.9
32.2
292
43
48
426
47
21

4.88
0.15
5.02
191
3.6
27.3
285
46
35
421
44
18

3.98
0.14
4.12
183
3.5
21.9
275
48
33
420
42
16

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 18 of 241

200.7
44069.4 NOT ppp-corrected

NOT use but Production

1.15
0.37
1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4
235
33
7

1.78
0.26
2.03
125
2.6
25.3
5
5
7
270
37
9

0.5 Net Ecosystem Production (NEP)

267 Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species
473 Permanent pasture: FAO category 'land for grass & fodder species'
97
515
624
1976

3.28
0.06 Approximate calculation from complex land-use module
3.33
166
3.1
17.6
262
46
37
385
39
13

A1 IMAGE
ALM - A1 IMAGE

1990

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)

Trillion US$
1990 US$/c

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100 Remarks
2783

1287

1597

1954

2315

2643

2879

3055

3159

3202

3145

3006

2.1
1653.4

3.0
1901.8

5.4
2738.2

9.8
4210.1

17.3
6556.0

28.5
9905.2

43.7
14317.2

62.0
19627.9

85.2
26606.2

114.4
36388.5

143.3
47686.9

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

16
1
15
4
2
0
39

20
3
23
9
4
0
58

25
5
37
17
9
1
94

26
9
53
18
24
5
135

26
13
67
19
50
9
184

24
17
77
23
81
11
233

20
22
82
30
112
15
281

19
22
84
36
133
20
315

18
20
85
43
147
22
334

17
17
81
47
151
24
336

15
16
73
48
144
26
322

13
14
65
49
132
24
296

Primary Energy
EJ
Coal
Oil
Gas
Non-Fossil Electric
Biomass

3
17
6
0
0

4
27
10
0
0

10
47
26
1
2

32
75
37
2
9

75
101
34
5
20

97
131
56
11
21

102
157
88
20
36

97
165
91
31
45

87
165
109
43
49

75
155
115
54
45

66
132
100
60
47

52
109
102
62
46

18
43

22
64

28
114

29
183

30
266

29
344

26
429

26
456

25
478

24
469

23
428

21
391

Cumulative Resources Production ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.6
0.1

0.2
1.6
0.4

0.4
2.8
0.8

0.9
4.4
1.3

1.8
6.3
2.0

2.7
8.1
2.8

3.6
9.8
3.8

4.3
11.5
4.9

5.0
13.0
6.2

5.5
14.3
7.3

5.9
15.4
8.4

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

36.8

67.2

112.9

171.6

239.9

313.6

389.3

464.0

532.6

592.1

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

1.2

1.0

1.6

2.1

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.3

1.9

1.8

1.6

Land Use

Million ha
397
1697
2
1529
1955
5579

394
1648
8
1529
2001
5579

447
1708
19
1472
1933
5579

499
1760
53
1410
1857
5579

540
1790
85
1346
1818
5579

540
1704
101
1370
1864
5579

523
1617
105
1429
1906
5579

503
1499
125
1494
1958
5579

483
1403
127
1552
2014
5579

455
1345
120
1608
2051
5579

421
1281
106
1662
2109
5579

384 Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species
1201 Permanent pasture: FAO category 'land for grass & fodder species'
102
1722
2171
5579

1.81
0.44
2.25
105
1.5
21.8
15
5
10
326
55
10

3.11
0.73
3.84
134
2.0
32.0
39
9
14
425
63
15

4.71
0.60
5.31
154
2.3
45.5
81
14
19
422
67
21

6.41
0.01
6.42
158
2.5
54.4
139
19
32
302
62
24

7.31
-0.08
7.24
166
2.8
57.2
184
23
40
317
65
26

7.61
-0.10
7.51
176
2.9
57.0
205
26
42
365
66
28

7.61
0.02
7.63
183
2.9
53.9
210
28
37
437
67
28

7.11
0.20
7.31
184
2.9
48.5
210
30
23
490
68
26

6.41
-0.01
6.41
171
2.8
42.4
206
31
24
456
64
24

5.51
-0.03 Approximate calculation from complex land-use module
5.48
160
2.6
35.9
196
30
26
465
60
21

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 19 of 241

169.2
60795.4 NOT ppp-corrected

NOT use but Production

0.72
0.73
1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
3
396
48
7

1.01
0.82
1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5
404
55
8

1.3 Net Ecosystem Production (NEP)

A1 MESSAGE
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1 MESSAGE
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Population

5262

6117

6888

7617

8182

8531

8704

8667

8463

8125

7658

7056

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

20.9
25.7

26.7
33.3

37.9
47.1

56.5
66.6

89.1
96.6

135.2
138.9

181.3
181.0

247.6
240.7

313.8
304.2

383.3
372.2

455.9
443.0

528.5
513.9

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

38
42
111
41
35
8
275

28
58
125
48
47
10
316

22
59
160
67
70
20
398

16
67
204
85
107
38
517

10
73
254
104
164
58
662

7
70
303
135
232
84
830

5
48
357
164
311
122
1005

0
35
396
199
414
169
1213

0
29
403
210
536
234
1413

0
26
365
202
647
320
1560

0
24
308
158
745
422
1657

0
15
254
96
859
525
1749

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

91
128
71
7
46

105
155
85
9
47

120
172
128
12
63

157
198
178
19
87

194
225
250
34
120

227
250
320
55
155

210
281
378
84
204

182
333
445
126
251

192
326
482
185
315

213
253
456
247
394

200
184
398
306
438

192
138
350
358
475

8
352

13
415

29
524

52
689

78
901

134
1141

240
1397

371
1707

534
2035

730
2292

945
2472

1172
2683

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.9
1.4
0.7

2.0
3.0
1.6

3.2
4.7
2.9

4.8
6.7
4.7

6.7
8.9
7.1

9.0
11.4
10.3

11.1
14.2
14.1

12.9
17.6
18.6

14.8
20.8
23.4

17.0
23.4
28.0

19.0
25.2
31.9

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

162.0

262.8

383.6

528.0

688.0

859.3

1041.9

1224.6

1390.9

1537.3

1459
3389
0
4296
3805
12949

1466
3404
0
4237
3842
12949

1462
3429
0
4173
3886
12949

1457
3446
74
4164
3807
12949

1454
3458
158
4164
3715
12949

1448
3478
288
4177
3558
12949

1442
3498
418
4190
3400
12949

1436
3525
492
4194
3301
12949

1429
3552
566
4199
3203
12949

1424
3568
581
4202
3173
12949

1422
3572
538
4203
3213
12949

1420
3576
495
4204
3253
12949

8.31
1.04
9.36
362
6.1
65.8
791
31
43
1022
164
39

10.56
0.26
10.81
418
6.1
62.2
337
43
48
1218
194
50

13.21
0.12
13.33
486
6.2
61.8
369
61
66
1412
211
60

15.51
0.05
15.56
517
6.3
59.6
482
77
99
1659
235
71

16.47
-0.02
16.45
531
6.3
49.4
566
89
119
1925
259
80

17.84
-0.03
17.81
502
6.2
45.4
654
97
127
2173
282
90

18.73
-0.03
18.70
477
6.1
43.2
659
106
113
2380
276
95

17.86
-0.03
17.83
451
6.0
40.4
654
114
88
2548
234
90

15.46
-0.01
15.44
400
5.9
35.9
639
119
84
2568
188
81

13.83
0.00
13.83
347
5.8
31.4
614
115
95
2532
137
74

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run

5.99
1.11
7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38
879
139
31

6.90
1.07
7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40
877
141
32

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data
Page 20 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run

A1 MESSAGE

Page 21 of 241

A1 MESSAGE
OECD90 - A1 MESSAGE

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

859

919

965

1007

1043

1069

1081

1084

1089

1098

1108

1110

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

16.4
14.1

20.5
17.7

25.3
21.8

31.0
26.9

38.0
33.0

46.1
40.1

54.1
47.2

65.5
57.2

76.9
67.3

90.3
79.2

105.7
92.9

121.1
106.6

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
13
66
22
22
1
124

0
13
68
28
28
1
138

0
7
73
35
38
4
157

0
3
78
40
50
9
180

0
2
77
44
62
12
197

0
1
75
44
70
17
207

0
0
70
43
81
24
218

0
0
67
41
97
34
240

0
0
55
40
117
50
262

0
0
45
36
132
70
282

0
0
36
24
150
93
303

0
0
27
12
172
109
320

38
72
33
6
6

36
82
45
7
9

39
79
60
9
14

42
80
76
10
20

44
75
87
14
27

32
67
96
20
34

20
58
97
27
42

11
55
107
38
44

6
43
118
48
44

5
35
118
56
40

3
28
108
60
41

2
25
113
59
52

4
159

6
184

12
210

16
243

22
269

35
283

59
303

81
335

114
372

156
409

211
450

246
497

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.8
0.4

0.7
1.6
0.8

1.1
2.4
1.4

1.5
3.2
2.2

2.0
3.9
3.0

2.3
4.6
4.0

2.5
5.2
5.0

2.6
5.7
6.0

2.7
6.2
7.2

2.7
6.5
8.4

2.7
6.8
9.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

63.4

99.6

137.7

174.0

205.5

234.1

261.8

288.1

311.7

333.4

381
760
0
1050
838
3029

380
763
0
1053
833
3029

377
771
0
1052
828
3029

376
774
11
1053
814
3029

375
776
24
1056
798
3029

372
787
44
1062
765
3029

368
797
63
1068
733
3029

364
818
74
1061
712
3029

359
839
86
1054
691
3029

356
849
88
1050
685
3029

356
847
81
1049
695
3029

355
846
75
1048
705
3029

3.43
0.04
3.46
71
2.4
9.7
110
13
14
194
39
14

3.76
0.02
3.78
71
2.4
3.7
108
11
5
218
41
16

3.84
0.00
3.83
71
2.4
2.3
115
9
6
217
37
16

3.44
-0.02
3.41
68
2.4
1.5
118
8
7
217
33
15

2.94
-0.04
2.89
65
2.4
1.1
122
9
9
214
28
14

2.82
0.00
2.83
63
2.3
2.2
123
10
11
206
27
13

2.66
0.05
2.71
63
2.3
2.0
123
12
13
200
25
13

2.49
0.06
2.55
63
2.3
2.7
124
13
16
186
21
12

2.15
0.04
2.18
62
2.2
3.1
125
14
18
149
14
11

2.14
0.01
2.15
63
2.2
4.4
125
16
20
151
9
11

Population

Million

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run

2.83
0.00
2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
23
179
42
13

3.20
0.00
3.20
74
2.6
17.0
58
13
23
161
36
12

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data

Page 22 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run

A1 MESSAGE
REF - A1 MESSAGE

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

413

419

427

433

435

433

423

409

392

374

357

339

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.1
2.6

0.8
2.2

1.5
3.1

2.9
4.3

5.3
6.0

8.8
8.8

12.4
12.4

16.2
16.2

20.0
20.0

24.4
24.4

29.3
29.3

34.2
34.2

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
9
15
14
6
7
50

0
5
10
11
6
6
38

0
4
10
15
7
7
42

0
3
10
17
10
10
50

0
2
11
20
14
12
59

0
1
10
26
20
15
72

0
0
11
29
27
17
85

0
0
10
33
32
17
92

0
0
10
32
38
19
99

0
0
11
25
45
23
103

0
0
15
16
51
26
108

0
0
21
7
56
28
112

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

19
20
27
1
2

15
15
22
1
1

12
13
30
1
1

14
12
32
1
2

17
12
38
1
3

30
12
42
2
5

32
12
50
3
8

26
13
67
4
10

13
13
81
5
14

8
9
79
6
21

17
7
63
7
32

19
5
53
8
47

1
70

1
54

2
58

4
64

6
77

9
99

16
121

19
138

26
151

37
160

49
173

55
187

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.3

0.3
0.3
0.5

0.4
0.5
0.8

0.6
0.6
1.1

0.7
0.7
1.5

1.0
0.8
1.9

1.4
0.9
2.4

1.7
1.1
3.1

1.8
1.2
3.9

1.9
1.3
4.7

2.1
1.4
5.3

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

21.0

31.4

41.9

54.7

69.5

85.4

101.6

116.5

130.3

143.3

268
341
0
966
701
2276

266
361
0
950
698
2276

265
364
0
918
728
2276

265
366
3
904
738
2276

265
367
6
894
745
2276

264
368
11
899
733
2276

263
370
16
905
722
2276

262
371
19
909
715
2276

262
371
22
912
709
2276

261
372
23
916
703
2276

260
373
21
922
700
2276

260
374
20
927
696
2276

0.91
0.18
1.09
44
0.6
7.5
8
5
8
53
16
3

0.96
0.01
0.97
48
0.6
4.7
19
8
10
61
20
4

1.14
0.00
1.14
55
0.6
3.0
29
14
14
79
25
5

1.50
-0.08
1.42
58
0.6
3.9
31
20
18
112
33
7

1.67
-0.15
1.52
58
0.6
3.9
32
21
21
151
41
8

1.79
-0.12
1.67
62
0.6
3.2
33
22
19
157
47
9

1.65
-0.09
1.56
60
0.6
2.6
33
23
15
152
48
10

1.49
-0.07
1.42
53
0.6
2.7
34
24
14
128
42
9

1.41
-0.06
1.35
46
0.6
2.7
33
25
10
97
34
8

1.31
-0.05
1.25
40
0.6
1.8
31
24
11
65
23
8

Population

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run

1.30
0.00
1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8
69
16
5

0.91
0.00
0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6
41
13
3

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data

Page 23 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run

A1 MESSAGE
ASIA - A1 MESSAGE
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2798

3261

3620

3937

4147

4238

4220

4085

3867

3589

3258

2882

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.5
5.3

2.7
8.2

5.8
13.5

12.3
21.6

26.2
35.2

44.5
51.8

62.7
67.5

91.9
93.3

121.0
121.0

150.0
150.0

178.6
178.6

207.3
207.3

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

24
19
13
2
4
1
62

17
36
20
3
7
2
85

13
41
27
7
12
4
105

8
51
47
10
24
10
150

4
59
69
14
42
16
204

3
54
95
22
67
25
266

2
33
122
39
97
37
330

0
26
140
64
136
54
420

0
27
143
73
186
77
505

0
24
134
75
231
107
570

0
22
114
62
271
144
613

0
14
106
37
318
182
655

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

30
15
3
0
24

48
24
5
1
22

57
28
12
1
27

79
40
22
4
35

99
57
37
8
48

120
71
54
15
64

114
80
81
26
82

104
93
109
44
106

120
77
116
71
133

126
56
112
102
156

105
43
96
138
158

87
41
74
173
163

1
74

3
102

6
131

14
193

23
272

42
366

75
459

122
578

179
697

239
791

308
849

391
928

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.2
0.0

0.8
0.4
0.1

1.4
0.7
0.2

2.2
1.1
0.4

3.2
1.7
0.8

4.4
2.4
1.3

5.5
3.2
2.2

6.5
4.1
3.2

7.7
4.9
4.4

9.0
5.4
5.5

10.1
5.9
6.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

40.2

67.9

104.7

153.3

210.3

271.8

337.0

403.5

464.5

516.7

438
608
0
535
583
2164

435
606
0
522
601
2164

434
609
0
512
609
2164

433
611
17
524
579
2164

432
613
37
535
547
2164

431
615
68
535
515
2164

431
617
99
535
483
2164

430
618
117
544
456
2164

429
619
134
552
429
2164

428
621
138
556
421
2164

428
622
127
555
431
2164

428
624
117
555
441
2164

2.22
0.22
2.44
148
2.4
27.2
18
8
12
316
40
11

3.23
-0.13
3.10
180
2.4
29.7
45
15
19
413
51
15

4.39
-0.12
4.27
220
2.5
31.4
92
23
28
544
59
19

5.49
-0.04
5.44
230
2.5
30.2
153
30
42
660
66
24

5.93
0.03
5.96
237
2.5
20.9
224
35
50
776
73
28

6.38
-0.03
6.35
213
2.5
16.8
292
39
55
906
85
32

6.78
-0.09
6.69
194
2.4
15.4
292
43
48
960
79
34

6.70
-0.10
6.61
179
2.4
14.3
285
46
35
1001
73
33

5.63
-0.04
5.59
161
2.4
12.9
275
48
33
968
62
30

4.85
0.01
4.86
143
2.3
11.9
262
46
37
910
42
26

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run

1.15
0.37
1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4
235
33
7

1.78
0.26
2.03
125
2.6
25.3
5
5
7
270
37
9

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data

Page 24 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run

A1 MESSAGE
ALM - A1 MESSAGE
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1192

1519

1875

2241

2557

2791

2980

3089

3115

3064

2934

2727

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.9
3.8

2.7
5.1

5.3
8.6

10.3
13.8

19.5
22.4

35.8
38.1

52.0
53.9

73.9
73.9

95.8
95.8

118.6
118.6

142.3
142.3

165.9
165.9

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

14
1
17
4
3
0
39

11
5
27
6
6
1
55

9
7
50
11
12
4
93

8
10
68
18
24
9
138

5
11
98
25
47
17
203

4
14
122
43
75
27
285

3
14
153
53
106
45
373

0
9
180
61
150
63
463

0
3
196
66
195
89
548

0
2
175
67
239
121
604

0
2
144
56
274
159
634

0
2
100
40
314
206
662

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

5
21
8
0
14

7
35
14
0
15

14
53
26
1
22

22
67
49
4
30

35
81
88
10
41

46
100
128
18
53

44
131
150
28
72

41
172
163
40
91

53
194
168
61
124

74
154
148
83
176

76
106
131
101
207

83
67
110
118
213

2
49

3
74

10
125

18
190

27
283

48
394

90
514

148
656

215
815

298
932

377
999

480
1071

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.3
0.1

0.1
0.6
0.2

0.3
1.1
0.5

0.5
1.8
1.0

0.8
2.6
1.9

1.3
3.6
3.1

1.7
4.9
4.6

2.1
6.7
6.3

2.6
8.6
7.9

3.3
10.1
9.4

4.0
11.2
10.7

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

37.3

63.9

99.2

146.0

202.7

268.0

341.5

416.5

484.4

543.9

371
1680
0
1745
1684
5480

385
1673
0
1711
1710
5480

384
1685
0
1690
1720
5480

383
1695
42
1683
1676
5480

382
1702
90
1680
1625
5480

381
1708
165
1681
1544
5480

381
1714
240
1682
1463
5480

380
1718
282
1681
1419
5480

379
1722
324
1680
1374
5480

379
1726
333
1678
1364
5480

378
1730
308
1676
1387
5480

378
1733
284
1674
1411
5480

0.72
0.73
1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
3
396
48
7

1.01
0.82
1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5
404
55
8

1.76
0.60
2.36
99
0.7
18.5
15
5
10
459
68
11

2.61
0.36
2.96
119
0.7
21.1
39
9
14
526
82
15

3.84
0.25
4.09
141
0.7
22.2
81
14
19
572
90
20

5.09
0.19
5.28
162
0.7
21.0
139
19
32
670
102
25

5.93
0.14
6.07
171
0.8
20.6
184
23
40
785
117
30

6.86
0.12
6.98
165
0.8
20.1
205
26
42
904
124
36

7.63
0.10
7.73
160
0.7
20.2
210
28
37
1069
124
38

7.18
0.08
7.26
155
0.7
17.7
210
30
23
1233
98
36

6.27
0.06
6.32
131
0.7
14.2
206
31
24
1353
78
33

5.53
0.03
5.56
100
0.6
10.4
196
30
26
1405
63
30

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data

Page 25 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run

A1 MINICAM
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1 MINICAM
1990
Population

Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

5293

6100

6874

7618

8122

8484

8703

8623

8430

8126

7621

7137

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

20.7
na

27.4
na

38.1
na

52.8
na

80.2
na

117.3
na

164.4
na

226.8
na

294.5
na

367.3
na

445.1
na

530.7
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
45
121
52
35
0
253

0
57
126
63
53
0
300

0
71
134
72
82
20
379

0
86
145
80
123
59
493

0
98
144
81
199
99
622

0
103
161
81
289
156
790

0
99
197
79
392
231
998

0
73
238
90
511
272
1184

0
54
279
101
628
308
1371

0
45
318
111
745
341
1559

0
46
364
73
856
280
1620

0
47
411
36
968
220
1682

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

88
131
70
24
0

116
136
85
25
5

145
144
137
33
14

174
155
226
45
26

224
141
336
60
55

255
154
437
75
87

265
194
527
89
124

216
244
611
100
148

179
291
678
112
159

156
333
728
125
156

190
387
476
218
187

225
440
224
311
219

24
336

25
392

28
500

35
661

48
865

97
1104

181
1380

311
1630

448
1866

589
2087

687
2145

785
2204

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.1
0.1
0.1

1.2
1.5
0.9

2.5
2.9
2.1

4.0
4.4
3.8

6.2
5.8
6.9

8.6
7.4
10.8

11.1
9.0
15.4

13.4
11.4
21.4

15.4
14.0
27.8

17.1
17.1
34.7

18.9
20.8
40.0

20.8
24.6
45.2

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

163.2

272.9

410.2

572.6

755.3

949.5

1148.9

1355.0

1552.0

1724.0

1472
3209
0
4173
4310
13164

1467
3349
1
4215
4133
13164

1472
3604
13
4141
3935
13164

1489
3974
35
3952
3715
13164

1472
4359
103
3606
3625
13164

1429
4663
178
3309
3585
13164

1361
4885
261
3060
3596
13164

1210
4731
296
3318
3608
13164

1054
4480
294
3704
3632
13164

891
4134
255
4217
3667
13164

769
3872
313
4435
3775
13164

646
3609
372
4654
3884
13164

5.99
1.11

6.90
1.07

8.51
1.10

10.74
1.59

13.45
1.68

15.88
1.48

18.18
1.01

19.11
0.53

20.07
0.17

21.05
-0.07

19.45
-1.02

17.93
-1.97

7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38

7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40

9.60
356
8.0
78.8
791
31
43

12.33
406
9.2
80.7
337
43
48

15.13
467
10.6
77.3
369
61
66

17.35
528
12.3
66.1
482
77
99

19.19
573
13.8
47.1
566
89
119

19.64
592
14.4
32.2
654
97
127

20.24
604
14.8
23.9
659
106
113

20.98
608
15.0
22.3
654
114
88

18.43
572
15.3
25.7
639
119
84

15.96
535
15.6
29.2
614
115
95

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 26 of 241

A1 MINICAM

Page 27 of 241

A1 MINICAM
OECD90 - A1 MINICAM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

838

908

965

1007

1024

1066

1081

1084

1090

1098

1105

1112

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

16.3
na

20.5
na

25.6
na

31.5
na

34.4
na

44.7
na

53.6
na

63.3
na

74.4
na

86.7
na

102.1
na

118.7
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
10
72
27
22
0
130

0
13
73
36
28
0
151

0
12
70
41
33
16
172

0
9
61
40
36
47
195

0
9
51
38
37
59
195

0
7
30
30
40
98
205

0
5
28
25
42
129
229

0
4
30
27
51
140
252

0
3
32
30
63
151
279

0
3
35
33
76
164
311

0
4
43
24
102
141
313

0
5
51
14
128
117
315

40
76
34
20
0

47
78
47
16
2

45
74
73
13
5

35
64
113
12
10

37
52
120
11
13

42
26
141
9
24

45
22
154
8
33

43
22
169
9
36

38
26
184
10
37

30
35
201
12
37

42
44
143
26
51

54
53
84
39
66

12
182

11
201

11
222

11
245

11
245

15
258

21
283

32
310

46
342

62
376

82
388

103
400

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.1
0.0

0.5
0.9
0.5

0.9
1.6
1.1

1.4
2.3
2.0

1.5
2.5
2.6

2.1
3.1
4.6

2.6
3.4
6.0

3.0
3.6
7.7

3.4
3.8
9.5

3.8
4.1
11.4

4.2
4.5
12.9

4.6
4.9
14.4

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

64.2

101.8

140.6

178.9

217.2

256.4

296.6

337.8

377.3

412.4

408
796
0
921
998
3123

411
821
1
931
959
3123

410
866
9
922
916
3123

408
931
24
894
866
3123

402
963
34
867
857
3123

378
1044
67
794
840
3123

352
1076
92
760
843
3123

309
1048
95
825
846
3123

268
1007
93
904
851
3123

229
953
86
996
859
3123

196
898
120
1028
882
3123

163
843
154
1059
904
3123

2.83
0.00

3.20
0.00

3.48
0.14

3.64
0.27

3.58
0.28

3.57
0.22

3.77
0.11

3.95
0.02

4.14
-0.07

4.34
-0.16

4.00
-0.28

3.67
-0.40

2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
23

3.20
74
2.6
17.0
58
13
23

3.62
83
2.8
13.1
110
13
14

3.90
93
3.0
2.2
108
11
5

3.86
98
3.1
1.0
115
9
6

3.79
117
3.5
0.4
118
8
7

3.87
133
3.8
0.4
122
9
9

3.97
150
3.9
0.9
123
10
11

4.07
160
4.0
1.5
123
12
13

4.18
161
4.0
2.2
124
13
16

3.72
167
4.0
3.3
125
14
18

3.28
173
4.0
4.5
125
16
20

Population

Million

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 28 of 241

A1 MINICAM
REF - A1 MINICAM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

428

425

426

433

434

431

423

408

392

374

357

340

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.1
na

1.1
na

1.4
na

2.1
na

3.5
na

5.1
na

6.9
na

10.0
na

13.6
na

17.8
na

21.8
na

26.3
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
13
18
19
6
0
56

0
10
12
15
8
0
44

0
9
9
13
13
0
45

0
9
11
15
21
1
57

0
8
12
15
33
1
70

0
8
14
15
44
2
84

0
8
16
15
56
3
98

0
6
19
16
68
4
112

0
4
21
17
79
4
125

0
4
23
18
89
4
137

0
4
23
11
94
3
134

0
4
24
5
98
1
132

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

18
20
26
3
0

17
13
20
4
1

19
11
22
6
2

22
13
34
10
3

30
10
47
11
7

34
9
53
12
10

34
12
54
13
12

24
18
58
13
14

18
22
60
14
13

17
24
60
15
12

19
25
36
23
12

22
27
12
31
12

3
70

3
58

4
64

5
87

7
111

14
132

26
151

41
169

56
184

70
197

75
191

80
184

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.2

0.4
0.3
0.5

0.6
0.4
0.7

0.9
0.5
1.2

1.2
0.6
1.7

1.5
0.7
2.2

1.8
0.9
2.8

2.0
1.1
3.4

2.2
1.3
4.0

2.4
1.6
4.4

2.5
1.8
4.8

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

20.4

31.8

46.8

64.8

84.0

103.1

121.6

139.8

155.7

167.5

284
395
0
1007
691
2377

294
410
0
1016
657
2377

304
454
1
996
622
2377

317
527
4
945
584
2377

322
609
17
861
569
2377

321
676
26
792
563
2377

312
729
31
738
567
2377

273
684
32
818
570
2377

230
616
28
928
575
2377

183
526
20
1066
582
2377

158
488
18
1109
604
2377

134
451
16
1151
626
2377

1.30
0.00

0.91
0.00

0.94
0.03

1.23
0.08

1.56
0.13

1.77
0.13

1.85
0.10

1.77
0.10

1.73
0.09

1.73
0.08

1.51
-0.13

1.31
-0.34

1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8

0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6

0.97
49
0.7
10.1
8
5
8

1.31
68
0.9
10.1
19
8
10

1.69
82
1.1
10.7
29
14
14

1.90
96
1.4
9.4
31
20
18

1.94
108
1.6
6.4
32
21
21

1.87
106
1.6
3.4
33
22
19

1.83
108
1.6
1.7
33
23
15

1.81
112
1.5
1.4
34
24
14

1.38
99
1.5
1.8
33
25
10

0.97
86
1.6
2.2
31
24
11

Population

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 29 of 241

A1 MINICAM
ASIA - A1 MINICAM
Population

1990
Million

2790

2000
3226

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

3608

3937

4115

4210

4219

4062

3852

3589

3245

2919

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.4
na

3.1
na

6.5
na

11.7
na

23.9
na

40.4
na

61.3
na

86.4
na

112.3
na

139.1
na

166.0
na

195.3
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
20
14
2
4
0
40

0
31
19
5
11
0
67

0
45
27
8
25
2
108

0
62
36
11
47
7
163

0
73
47
14
90
14
238

0
78
61
16
141
26
322

0
76
78
17
200
45
416

0
54
93
20
254
55
476

0
40
106
23
305
62
535

0
32
118
25
352
67
594

0
31
130
16
382
52
611

0
31
143
7
412
36
629

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

26
16
3
1
0

45
21
9
4
2

71
29
24
9
5

104
40
49
17
10

133
47
102
27
22

147
61
149
37
35

147
81
192
47
48

110
101
219
51
58

86
116
235
55
61

73
126
241
60
59

81
140
149
97
64

90
154
57
135
70

3
49

4
85

5
144

8
227

14
344

40
468

85
600

149
687

212
765

275
833

304
835

332
838

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.2
0.1

1.1
0.5
0.3

1.9
0.8
0.6

3.1
1.3
1.5

4.5
1.8
2.8

6.0
2.5
4.4

7.2
3.4
6.5

8.1
4.5
8.8

9.0
5.7
11.1

9.8
7.1
12.8

10.6
8.5
14.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

42.9

80.0

132.5

199.7

277.8

358.9

437.6

515.0

587.0

649.6

389
508
0
1168
664
2729

400
524
0
1144
633
2700

410
555
2
1102
600
2668

420
603
6
1041
565
2635

416
646
28
980
551
2620

405
681
51
932
545
2613

387
708
75
896
547
2614

350
704
85
925
550
2614

312
691
83
978
555
2618

273
670
67
1053
562
2626

235
641
73
1116
581
2647

198
612
79
1179
600
2667

1.15
0.37

1.78
0.26

2.79
0.20

4.16
0.27

5.78
0.31

7.07
0.29

8.03
0.22

7.86
0.11

7.75
0.03

7.70
-0.01

6.88
-0.16

6.10
-0.30

1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4

2.03
125
2.6
25.3
5
5
7

2.99
134
2.9
37.9
18
8
12

4.43
146
3.3
50.0
45
15
19

6.08
160
3.7
47.4
92
23
28

7.36
172
4.1
38.3
153
30
42

8.26
180
4.5
22.7
224
35
50

7.97
172
4.6
14.3
292
39
55

7.78
166
4.7
9.5
292
43
48

7.69
163
4.9
8.2
285
46
35

6.72
159
4.9
9.4
275
48
33

5.80
154
5.0
10.6
262
46
37

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 30 of 241

A1 MINICAM
ALM - A1 MINICAM
Population

1990
Million

1236

2000
1541

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1876

2241

2531

2778

2980

3068

3096

3064

2913

2766

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.9
na

2.8
na

4.6
na

7.4
na

15.4
na

27.2
na

42.6
na

67.0
na

94.1
na

123.7
na

155.2
na

190.3
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
2
17
5
3
0
27

0
3
22
7
6
0
38

0
4
29
10
11
1
55

0
6
37
13
18
4
78

0
9
43
17
38
13
120

0
10
56
20
64
30
179

0
11
75
22
94
54
256

0
9
98
27
137
74
344

0
7
120
31
182
91
432

0
7
142
35
228
107
518

0
7
167
23
279
86
562

0
8
193
10
330
65
606

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

4
20
7
0
0

6
23
10
2
1

9
29
17
4
2

13
38
29
7
3

23
44
61
11
10

31
58
93
16
19

39
80
127
21
31

38
104
165
27
41

38
127
198
32
47

37
149
226
38
49

48
177
148
72
60

59
206
71
105
72

5
35

6
48

8
71

12
102

16
165

28
246

49
346

89
464

134
576

183
681

226
731

269
781

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.2
0.1

0.1
0.5
0.2

0.2
0.8
0.5

0.5
1.3
1.0

0.7
1.8
1.8

1.1
2.5
2.8

1.5
3.4
4.4

1.8
4.6
6.2

2.2
5.9
8.3

2.7
7.7
9.9

3.1
9.4
11.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

35.6

59.2

90.2

129.3

176.4

231.2

293.1

362.4

432.0

494.5

391
1510
0
3641
1957
7499

363
1594
0
3591
1884
7432

348
1728
0
3478
1798
7352

344
1913
1
3301
1699
7259

338
2109
13
3098
1657
7216

326
2262
34
2932
1637
7192

310
2372
64
2801
1639
7186

278
2295
84
2883
1642
7183

244
2166
90
3039
1651
7190

206
1985
82
3270
1663
7207

179
1845
102
3423
1709
7257

152
1704
123
3575
1754
7308

0.72
0.73

1.01
0.82

1.30
0.73

1.72
0.97

2.54
0.97

3.47
0.84

4.53
0.58

5.53
0.30

6.45
0.11

7.27
0.03

7.05
-0.45

6.84
-0.93

1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
3

1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5

2.03
90
1.7
14.7
15
5
10

2.69
100
2.1
15.4
39
9
14

3.51
125
2.7
15.3
81
14
19

4.31
143
3.3
15.0
139
19
32

5.11
152
3.9
14.5
184
23
40

5.83
163
4.2
10.6
205
26
42

6.56
170
4.5
8.2
210
28
37

7.30
171
4.6
7.4
210
30
23

6.60
147
4.8
8.1
206
31
24

5.91
122
5.0
8.8
196
30
26

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 31 of 241

A1 MARIA
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1 MARIA
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Population

5262

6117

6888

7617

8048

8207

8704

8536

8372

8028

7527

7056

19.4

25.8

35.7

51.9

75.4

114.4

179.7

230.1

287.9

355.9

430.8

535.6

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

48
138
56
35
0
278

37
165
66
52
0
321

38
200
98
63
0
399

27
252
139
79
0
496

19
293
189
90
0
591

13
350
243
116
0
723

26
403
303
157
0
889

48
402
345
187
0
984

84
486
287
218
0
1075

140
481
303
256
0
1180

207
583
213
301
0
1303

145
651
273
363
0
1432

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

90
123
71
22
28

69
144
105
29
39

61
168
142
40
56

45
201
188
61
88

33
220
246
99
103

24
250
305
162
121

34
285
354
240
132

54
229
399
321
184

87
263
344
402
230

142
208
363
505
278

209
208
279
625
380

146
226
345
797
429

9
343

8
393

7
475

7
589

6
706

21
882

68
1113

71
1258

73
1400

73
1570

71
1770

67
2011

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.9
1.2
0.7

1.6
2.7
1.8

2.2
4.4
3.2

2.6
6.4
5.1

3.0
8.6
7.5

3.2
11.1
10.6

3.5
13.9
14.1

4.1
16.2
18.1

5.0
18.8
21.5

6.4
20.9
25.2

8.5
23.0
28.0

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

159.2

251.3

351.6

461.4

584.0

713.4

845.3

983.2

1132.8

1294.3

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Land Use

Million ha
1451
3395
0
4138
4061
13045

1451
3395
0
4142
4057
13045

1605
3245
0
4158
4038
13045

2000
2850
0
4186
4010
13045

2174
2676
0
4217
3978
13045

2222
2604
39
4267
3914
13045

2355
2601
43
4312
3734
13045

2080
2593
326
4366
3681
13045

1810
2597
592
4366
3681
13045

1539
2597
872
4358
3681
13045

1278
2597
1572
3918
3681
13045

1162
2597
1932
3673
3681
13045

5.99
1.11
7.10

6.90
1.07
7.97

7.77
1.03
8.80

8.69
0.93
9.61

9.65
0.79
10.44

10.93
0.58
11.51

12.66
0.36
13.01

12.74
0.13
12.87

13.45
0.05
13.50

14.07
0.00
14.07

14.48
1.38
15.86

14.24
2.20
16.44

1672
32
38

883
25
40

791
31
43

337
43
48

369
61
66

482
77
99

566
89
119

654
97
127

659
106
113

654
114
88

639
119
84

614
115
95

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 32 of 241

A1 MARIA

Page 33 of 241

A1 MARIA
OECD90 - A1 MARIA

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

859

919

965

1007

1035

1046

1081

1085

1091

1096

1103

1110

15.6

18.9

22.7

27.0

32.0

38.2

46.0

57.7

71.3

88.4

105.8

123.9

12
71
28
21
0
132

8
76
32
28
0
145

6
71
52
31
0
160

4
68
70
36
0
177

3
65
82
39
0
188

2
64
92
42
0
199

7
59
99
47
0
212

15
51
111
52
0
230

28
80
80
59
0
248

49
73
80
67
0
269

65
92
56
77
0
290

46
89
88
87
0
309

38
71
34
18
6

28
77
55
15
4

21
71
80
18
3

16
68
105
23
2

13
65
121
28
1

10
64
135
35
1

12
59
133
43
1

19
51
147
54
0

31
80
120
68
1

51
73
124
85
1

67
92
106
105
2

47
87
143
131
3

5
171

5
182

4
198

4
217

3
232

3
247

19
267

23
294

24
323

24
357

23
395

21
431

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.7
0.3

0.7
1.5
0.9

0.9
2.2
1.7

1.0
2.9
2.7

1.2
3.5
3.9

1.3
4.2
5.3

1.4
4.8
6.6

1.6
5.3
8.1

1.9
6.1
9.3

2.4
6.8
10.5

3.1
7.7
11.6

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

62.8

97.2

133.1

169.7

205.3

240.4

278.6

321.5

369.4

420.0

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Land Use

Million ha
378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
778
772
2684

378
756
0
816
734
2684

378
756
0
834
716
2684

378
756
0
834
716
2684

357
756
21
834
716
2684

295
756
82
834
716
2684

237
756
141
834
716
2684

2.83
0.00
2.83

3.20
0.00
3.20

3.31
0.03
3.33

3.49
0.05
3.55

3.60
0.05
3.65

3.71
-0.04
3.67

3.64
-0.19
3.44

3.86
-0.28
3.58

4.34
-0.27
4.07

4.77
-0.26
4.51

5.30
-0.23
5.07

5.25
-0.20
5.05

19
18
23

58
13
23

110
13
14

108
11
5

115
9
6

118
8
7

122
9
9

123
10
11

123
12
13

124
13
16

125
14
18

125
16
20

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 34 of 241

A1 MARIA
REF - A1 MARIA

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

413

419

427

433

432

430

423

406

391

374

356

339

0.9

1.3

1.8

2.6

4.6

8.1

13.7

18.1

22.4

27.1

32.9

40.4

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

13
17
21
7
0
58

9
14
24
8
0
55

6
12
27
7
0
52

4
11
30
7
0
53

3
12
41
9
0
65

2
13
53
11
0
78

3
12
65
13
0
93

6
8
70
14
0
98

10
14
61
15
0
100

17
16
54
16
0
102

27
26
38
17
0
107

19
23
53
18
0
113

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

19
19
27
3
1

13
14
33
2
1

9
13
34
3
0

6
12
38
4
0

4
12
52
4
0

3
13
66
5
0

4
12
80
7
0

6
8
86
9
0

10
14
77
11
0

17
16
69
13
0

27
26
53
17
0

19
23
69
21
0

1
69

1
64

1
60

1
61

1
74

1
89

4
106

4
113

4
116

4
120

4
128

4
136

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.3

0.3
0.3
0.6

0.4
0.5
0.9

0.5
0.6
1.3

0.5
0.7
1.8

0.5
0.8
2.5

0.6
0.9
3.3

0.7
1.0
4.2

0.8
1.2
4.9

0.9
1.3
5.6

1.2
1.6
6.2

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

19.6

27.5

35.9

46.0

57.9

70.5

83.3

96.3

110.3

124.9

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Land Use

Million ha
217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
827
710
1868

174
114
43
862
675
1868

139
114
78
862
675
1868

111
114
106
862
675
1868

89
114
128
862
675
1868

71
114
146
862
675
1868

1.30
0.00
1.30

0.91
0.00
0.91

0.79
0.02
0.81

0.75
0.01
0.76

0.93
-0.01
0.92

1.14
-0.03
1.11

1.34
-0.07
1.27

1.43
-0.17
1.26

1.50
-0.21
1.29

1.59
-0.27
1.32

1.82
-0.34
1.47

1.78
-0.33
1.45

0
7
8

4
4
6

8
5
8

19
8
10

29
14
14

31
20
18

32
21
21

33
22
19

33
23
15

34
24
14

33
25
10

31
24
11

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 35 of 241

A1 MARIA
ASIA - A1 MARIA
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2642

3080

3425

3728

3861

3895

4008

3814

3632

3368

3040

2744

1.2

2.6

5.8

12.5

21.1

36.5

62.9

81.9

104.9

132.1

164.8

210.8

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

20
26
2
4
0
52

18
42
3
9
0
71

24
65
4
12
0
105

17
96
10
17
0
140

12
121
17
18
0
168

8
154
27
27
0
216

15
181
40
40
0
276

25
183
53
51
0
312

41
203
44
64
0
352

68
199
49
79
0
395

104
211
35
97
0
446

73
252
57
119
0
501

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

28
14
3
1
13

24
23
5
12
21

28
36
8
19
31

20
48
14
35
51

14
62
22
34
65

10
87
30
64
71

16
111
42
78
73

26
98
54
104
88

42
98
45
132
106

68
70
50
169
130

104
55
35
214
157

73
59
58
269
193

1
61

1
86

1
124

1
168

1
197

1
263

20
340

20
389

20
443

20
507

20
585

20
671

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.1
0.0

0.5
0.4
0.1

0.8
0.7
0.2

1.0
1.2
0.3

1.1
1.8
0.5

1.2
2.7
0.8

1.4
3.8
1.2

1.6
4.8
1.8

2.1
5.8
2.2

2.7
6.5
2.7

3.8
7.0
3.1

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

40.0

64.3

90.0

119.4

155.4

196.1

238.8

283.6

331.3

378.7

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Land Use

Million ha
366
431
0
365
458
1621

366
431
0
367
456
1621

380
421
0
381
440
1621

380
421
0
390
430
1621

380
421
0
399
421
1621

380
382
39
406
414
1621

380
379
43
406
412
1621

379
371
52
406
412
1621

374
375
54
406
412
1621

335
375
92
406
412
1621

305
375
122
406
412
1621

266
375
162
406
412
1621

1.15
0.37
1.53

1.78
0.26
2.03

2.20
0.20
2.40

2.31
0.16
2.46

2.55
0.13
2.68

3.08
0.11
3.19

3.91
0.09
4.00

4.08
0.06
4.14

4.36
0.03
4.40

4.56
0.01
4.57

4.96
-0.01
4.95

4.58
-0.03
4.55

0
3
4

5
5
7

18
8
12

45
15
19

92
23
28

153
30
42

224
35
50

292
39
55

292
43
48

285
46
35

275
48
33

262
46
37

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 36 of 241

A1 MARIA
ALM - A1 MARIA
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1348

1699

2071

2449

2720

2836

3192

3231

3259

3190

3029

2864

1.7

3.0

5.4

9.8

17.6

31.7

57.1

72.4

89.3

108.4

127.4

160.5

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

3
24
5
3
0
35

2
34
6
8
0
50

2
51
15
12
0
81

1
77
29
19
0
126

1
95
49
25
0
170

1
119
72
37
0
229

1
151
99
57
0
308

2
160
112
69
0
344

4
190
101
81
0
376

7
193
120
95
0
414

11
253
84
111
0
459

8
288
75
139
0
510

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

6
18
7
0
8

4
30
12
0
13

3
48
19
0
21

2
73
32
0
35

1
80
51
33
36

1
86
74
58
49

2
103
100
112
59

2
72
113
154
96

4
72
102
192
123

7
50
120
238
147

11
35
84
289
221

8
57
75
377
232

2
41

2
60

1
93

1
143

1
204

15
282

25
399

25
461

24
517

24
586

24
664

23
772

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.2
0.1

0.1
0.5
0.2

0.1
1.0
0.4

0.1
1.7
0.7

0.2
2.5
1.2

0.2
3.4
2.0

0.2
4.4
2.9

0.2
5.1
4.1

0.2
5.8
5.1

0.3
6.3
6.3

0.4
6.7
7.1

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

36.8

62.4

92.6

126.2

165.4

206.4

244.6

281.6

321.9

370.7

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Land Use

Million ha
490
2095
0
2202
2086
6873

490
2095
0
2204
2084
6873

630
1955
0
2207
2081
6873

1025
1560
0
2226
2063
6873

1199
1386
0
2248
2040
6873

1247
1352
0
2268
2006
6873

1380
1352
0
2263
1878
6873

1150
1352
231
2263
1878
6873

920
1352
460
2263
1878
6873

736
1352
653
2255
1878
6873

589
1352
1240
1815
1878
6873

589
1352
1484
1571
1878
6873

0.72
0.73
1.45

1.01
0.82
1.83

1.47
0.79
2.26

2.13
0.71
2.84

2.57
0.62
3.19

3.01
0.54
3.54

3.76
0.54
4.30

3.37
0.52
3.89

3.24
0.50
3.74

3.16
0.51
3.67

2.41
1.96
4.37

2.63
2.77
5.40

0
4
3

2
4
5

15
5
10

39
9
14

81
14
19

139
19
32

184
23
40

205
26
42

210
28
37

210
30
23

206
31
24

196
30
26

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 37 of 241

A1C AIM
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1C AIM
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Population

5262

6117

6805

7493

8182

8439

8704

8538

8375

8030

7528

7056

20.9

26.7

37.9

56.4

89.1

127.2

181.5

235.2

304.7

377.7

447.8

531.0

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

50
36
111
51
38
0
285

48
42
118
51
49

38
69
149
74
74

24
164
230
103
150

0
187
274
122
229

0
175
393
172
551

0
160
430
189
651

0
146
467
207
731

404

670

823

0
209
319
141
307
0
976

0
192
356
156
429

309

34
113
187
87
104
0
525

1134

1291

1430

1551

0
133
505
224
810
0
1671

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

93
142
72
6
50

112
155
82
9
48

195
193
112
15
38

308
227
124
23
42

474
244
139
36
55

593
232
161
52
78

750
226
191
83
115

820
193
208
98
147

898
165
230
118
187

976
140
252
135
217

1051
118
272
145
228

1134
99
294
155
240

10
374

11
418

13
565

17
742

26
973

44
1161

78
1442

138
1605

249
1848

372
2092

450
2264

546
2468

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.1
0.1
0.1

1.1
1.6
0.8

2.6
3.4
1.8

5.1
5.5
3.0

9.1
7.8
4.3

13.9
9.9
5.7

21.3
12.5
7.6

28.0
14.2
9.4

36.9
16.2
11.6

46.7
17.8
14.1

56.5
19.1
16.7

68.3
20.4
19.7

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

174.2

313.7

494.6

709.4

958.3

1235.4

1529.2

1841.7

2174.8

2530.6

1437
3290
0
4249
3966
12942

1487
3287
0
4120
4048
12942

1546
3477
0
3975
3944
12942

1579
3874
10
3808
3671
12942

1534
4235
227
3742
3205
12942

1454
4271
320
3778
3097
12942

1378
4307
451
3813
2994
12942

1276
4231
535
3896
2984
12942

1182
4157
635
3981
2974
12942

1079
4056
728
4071
2995
12942

971
3930
807
4166
3048
12942

873
3808
894
4264
3102
12942

10.32
1.47
11.79
395
7.5
99.1
791
31
43
1101
179
41

14.34
1.78
16.12
479
8.2
134.2
337
43
48
1320
220
51

19.28
0.78
20.06
564
8.2
156.4
369
61
66
1402
254
59

22.65
0.23
22.88
566
8.0
133.1
482
77
99
1506
254
61

26.79
0.12
26.91
568
7.8
139.0
566
89
119
1619
256
63

28.47
0.04
28.51
517
7.3
103.5
654
97
127
1710
247
61

30.29
-0.03
30.26
474
6.8
82.0
659
106
113
1806
239
59

32.30
-0.07
32.23
442
6.5
76.3
654
114
88
1937
221
59

34.48
-0.08
34.41
416
6.3
79.6
639
119
84
2110
192
61

36.84
-0.09
36.75
392
6.1
83.3
614
115
95
2298
167
63

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 38 of 241

5.99
1.11
7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38
879
139
31

6.90
1.07
7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40
877
141
32

A1C AIM

Page 39 of 241

A1C AIM
OECD90 - A1C AIM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

859

919

960

1002

1043

1062

1081

1086

1091

1097

1103

1110

16.4

20.5

25.3

31.0

38.0

45.3

54.1

64.0

75.7

89.0

103.9

121.2

6
10
64
25
22
0
127

1
10
74
31
27

0
14
80
39
35

0
31
92
37
49

0
31
94
37
59

0
23
97
36
103

0
21
102
37
118

0
19
111
39
133

168

210

220

0
30
96
36
68
0
231

0
26
97
36
85

143

0
23
87
39
42
0
192

245

259

279

303

0
17
121
41
148
0
327

41
76
34
5
6

42
89
45
8
1

60
94
54
11
0

79
97
50
15
2

102
87
46
18
6

118
70
45
20
11

137
56
44
21
22

148
44
42
22
28

161
35
41
23
36

176
30
41
24
42

196
27
43
26
44

218
24
46
28
46

6
167

6
191

7
226

9
251

12
271

17
281

24
304

38
323

58
354

78
391

91
426

105
466

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.1
0.0

0.4
0.9
0.4

1.0
1.8
0.9

1.7
2.8
1.4

2.6
3.7
1.9

3.6
4.4
2.3

5.0
5.1
2.8

6.2
5.5
3.2

7.8
6.0
3.6

9.6
6.4
4.1

11.4
6.6
4.5

13.6
6.9
4.9

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

65.0

105.9

152.2

202.2

255.5

310.1

363.8

417.8

474.5

535.2

410
787
0
1056
886
3140

404
758
0
1065
912
3140

389
751
0
1102
897
3140

373
785
0
1131
851
3140

345
817
47
1168
762
3140

329
825
69
1174
737
3140

314
834
100
1179
713
3140

285
812
112
1217
710
3140

259
791
124
1257
706
3140

227
757
137
1304
709
3140

192
711
149
1360
719
3140

163
668
162
1418
729
3140

3.89
-0.12
3.78
71
2.5
11.5
110
13
14
186
39
12

4.44
-0.04
4.40
73
2.7
9.0
108
11
5
213
40
13

4.94
-0.09
4.85
76
2.6
10.0
115
9
6
241
39
12

5.19
-0.02
5.16
73
2.5
10.9
118
8
7
256
33
10

5.45
0.05
5.50
69
2.4
12.0
122
9
9
271
29
9

5.42
-0.01
5.41
68
2.2
12.5
123
10
11
277
21
9

5.39
-0.06
5.33
66
2.0
13.1
123
12
13
284
14
9

5.58
-0.10
5.47
65
1.8
13.9
124
13
16
300
11
9

6.00
-0.13
5.86
62
1.7
15.0
125
14
18
329
11
10

6.44
-0.16
6.28
60
1.7
16.1
125
16
20
359
10
11

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 40 of 241

2.83
0.00
2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
23
179
42
13

3.20
0.00
3.20
74
2.6
17.0
58
13
23
161
36
12

A1C AIM
REF - A1C AIM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

413

419

424

430

435

429

423

406

391

374

356

339

1.1

0.8

1.5

2.8

5.3

8.1

12.3

15.5

19.4

23.8

28.5

34.1

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

2
9
19
19
8
0
58

4
7
9
11
9

0
10
8
14
11

0
18
8
14
15

0
18
10
15
22

0
14
14
18
43

0
12
15
19
49

0
11
17
21
53

43

55

65

0
19
12
16
29
0
76

0
17
13
17
36

40

0
14
8
14
12
0
48

82

89

95

102

0
10
18
23
57
0
109

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

18
22
26
1
2

16
12
17
1
4

22
10
18
2
0

27
8
17
3
0

39
6
15
5
1

57
4
15
7
3

84
3
15
9
5

98
2
14
10
7

115
1
14
10
8

131
1
14
10
10

145
1
14
11
10

160
0
15
11
11

1
70

1
52

1
54

2
57

2
68

4
90

10
125

15
146

24
173

32
198

36
216

40
237

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.2

0.4
0.3
0.4

0.6
0.4
0.6

0.9
0.5
0.7

1.4
0.5
0.9

2.2
0.6
1.0

3.0
0.6
1.2

4.1
0.6
1.3

5.3
0.6
1.5

6.7
0.6
1.6

8.3
0.6
1.8

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

21.2

32.9

46.5

63.1

84.3

109.5

137.9

169.9

206.0

246.9

279
346
0
960
720
2305

284
357
0
961
703
2305

297
401
0
950
658
2305

299
468
0
950
588
2305

305
556
6
944
494
2305

293
571
11
950
477
2305

282
586
22
955
460
2305

267
585
25
966
460
2305

253
584
29
978
460
2305

233
571
38
993
464
2305

210
548
55
1010
474
2305

189
525
80
1028
483
2305

1.09
0.03
1.12
50
0.7
14.7
8
5
8
40
14
3

1.22
0.01
1.23
62
0.7
15.6
19
8
10
42
11
4

1.45
0.02
1.48
77
0.8
16.1
29
14
14
46
11
3

1.86
-0.01
1.86
80
0.7
12.7
31
20
18
50
9
3

2.39
-0.01
2.38
84
0.7
10.0
32
21
21
54
8
3

2.69
-0.02
2.67
91
0.7
9.9
33
22
19
57
7
3

3.03
-0.03
3.00
99
0.6
9.7
33
23
15
59
6
2

3.42
-0.03
3.39
103
0.5
10.6
34
24
14
63
5
2

3.88
-0.04
3.84
105
0.5
12.6
33
25
10
68
5
2

4.39
-0.05
4.34
106
0.5
14.8
31
24
11
75
5
2

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 41 of 241

1.30
0.00
1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8
69
16
5

0.91
0.00
0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6
41
13
3

A1C AIM
ASIA - A1C AIM
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2798

3261

3556

3851

4147

4183

4220

4016

3822

3541

3194

2882

1.5

2.7

5.8

12.3

26.3

40.8

63.1

85.8

116.7

148.3

176.1

209.1

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

28
15
11
2
5
0
61

24
23
15
3
7

19
40
26
6
16

4
90
55
18
54

0
103
69
25
83

0
97
119
50
220

0
89
135
59
264

0
81
148
67
298

106

220

283

0
116
84
32
113
0
345

0
107
102
41
167

72

14
62
40
9
29
0
154

416

487

546

594

0
73
161
75
333
0
642

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

30
17
4
0
28

44
21
6
0
24

85
34
11
1
19

144
46
13
3
16

234
56
23
7
11

275
51
31
12
17

324
47
42
22
27

350
40
54
31
34

379
33
68
43
43

407
28
81
54
50

435
22
91
58
52

465
18
101
64
55

1
80

2
98

2
151

2
224

3
334

6
393

13
475

30
538

69
636

120
740

159
818

210
913

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.2
0.1

1.0
0.5
0.1

2.2
0.9
0.3

4.1
1.4
0.4

6.3
1.8
0.7

9.6
2.4
1.1

12.6
2.8
1.5

16.3
3.2
2.2

20.4
3.5
2.9

24.5
3.7
3.7

29.4
4.0
4.8

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

45.7

90.7

157.4

241.5

337.0

442.3

555.2

675.9

804.4

940.9

390
521
0
527
576
2014

407
524
0
490
593
2014

433
547
0
451
583
2014

458
595
0
416
546
2014

447
644
42
404
478
2014

422
650
61
415
461
2014

398
656
89
427
444
2014

368
645
108
446
443
2014

340
633
130
466
442
2014

313
622
149
482
446
2014

288
611
163
493
455
2014

265
600
179
505
465
2014

3.15
0.40
3.55
165
2.8
47.2
18
8
12
389
54
13

4.99
0.46
5.45
211
3.1
72.2
45
15
19
509
77
19

7.65
0.24
7.89
262
3.2
80.0
92
23
28
599
93
25

8.78
0.15
8.93
262
3.2
39.4
153
30
42
663
97
26

10.08
0.09
10.17
261
3.1
19.2
224
35
50
734
102
26

10.83
0.07
10.89
220
2.9
19.7
292
39
55
777
104
25

11.62
0.05
11.68
184
2.8
20.2
292
43
48
822
105
23

12.41
0.06
12.47
162
2.7
21.1
285
46
35
881
98
23

13.17
0.07
13.24
149
2.6
22.4
275
48
33
956
84
23

13.97
0.09
14.06
137
2.5
23.8
262
46
37
1036
71
23

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 42 of 241

1.15
0.37
1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4
235
33
7

1.78
0.26
2.03
125
2.6
25.3
5
5
7
270
37
9

A1C AIM
ALM - A1C AIM
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1192

1519

1865

2211

2557

2761

2980

3024

3067

3013

2866

2727

1.9

2.7

5.3

10.2

19.5

31.9

52.0

69.3

92.4

116.6

139.4

166.6

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

14
1
17
4
4
0
40

18
2
21
7
6

19
6
35
15
12

20
25
75
34
32

0
35
101
45
64

0
41
163
68
185

0
38
179
74
220

0
35
191
80
246

87

185

255

0
45
127
57
97
0
325

0
43
145
62
141

53

20
14
52
25
21
0
132

391

457

510

552

0
32
204
85
273
0
594

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

5
27
9
0
14

11
33
14
0
18

28
55
29
1
19

58
75
44
3
25

99
95
55
6
36

143
107
71
14
47

205
120
90
31
61

223
107
98
36
78

243
95
107
42
100

261
82
115
47
116

275
69
124
50
122

291
57
132
53
128

2
57

2
78

3
135

5
209

8
300

16
397

31
538

55
598

98
686

142
762

164
803

191
852

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.3
0.1

0.3
0.8
0.3

0.7
1.4
0.7

1.5
2.3
1.2

2.6
3.2
1.8

4.5
4.4
2.7

6.3
5.3
3.5

8.7
6.4
4.5

11.4
7.4
5.7

13.9
8.1
6.8

1.7
6.7
12.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

42.2

84.2

138.7

202.5

281.4

373.4

472.3

578.0

689.9

807.5

357
1636
0
1706
1784
5483

391
1648
0
1604
1840
5483

427
1778
0
1472
1806
5483

449
2027
10
1311
1687
5483

437
2217
132
1226
1471
5483

410
2224
178
1239
1423
5483

384
2231
240
1253
1376
5483

356
2190
290
1266
1371
5483

330
2149
351
1279
1366
5483

305
2106
402
1292
1376
5483

280
2060
436
1303
1400
5483

257
2015
473
1314
1425
5483

2.20
1.15
3.34
108
1.5
22.7
15
5
10
486
73
11

3.69
1.36
5.05
132
1.8
34.4
39
9
14
556
92
16

5.24
0.61
5.85
148
1.6
47.2
81
14
19
516
111
19

6.82
0.11
6.93
151
1.6
67.1
139
19
32
537
114
21

8.87
0.00
8.86
154
1.6
94.8
184
23
40
560
117
24

9.53
0.00
9.53
139
1.5
58.4
205
26
42
599
115
24

10.24
0.00
10.25
125
1.5
36.1
210
28
37
641
113
24

10.89
0.01
10.90
112
1.5
27.7
210
30
23
693
106
25

11.44
0.02
11.47
99
1.5
26.6
206
31
24
757
93
26

12.03
0.04
12.06
88
1.5
25.6
196
30
26
827
82
27

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 43 of 241

0.72
0.73
1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
3
396
48
7

1.01
0.82
1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5
404
55
8

A1C MESSAGE
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1C MESSAGE
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Population

5262

6117

6888

7617

8182

8531

8704

8667

8463

8125

7658

7056

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

20.9
25.7

26.8
33.4

36.8
45.7

57.0
67.2

91.3
98.7

135.4
139.0

187.1
186.4

254.1
246.8

322.9
313.2

393.2
382.0

469.6
456.6

550.0
535.0

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

38
42
111
41
35
8
275

27
56
126
47
46
11
313

19
72
158
61
62
20
393

16
82
200
76
93
34
501

10
89
265
95
145
53
656

7
79
353
106
209
70
824

5
72
461
110
292
89
1031

0
68
569
118
395
118
1268

0
60
641
116
493
143
1453

0
55
672
119
588
164
1599

0
44
704
104
668
187
1706

0
26
685
93
726
213
1743

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

91
128
71
7
46

112
155
80
8
44

146
172
107
11
52

194
190
149
21
68

261
210
207
41
95

353
209
247
79
133

463
209
283
127
178

601
202
297
191
228

750
170
254
265
287

872
112
207
348
330

985
78
144
415
359

1062
56
118
432
376

8
352

13
411

23
511

37
659

57
870

82
1102

117
1377

166
1685

205
1931

234
2103

258
2239

281
2325

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

1.0
1.4
0.7

2.1
3.0
1.5

3.5
4.7
2.6

5.5
6.6
4.1

8.1
8.7
6.2

11.6
10.8
8.6

16.2
12.9
11.5

22.3
14.9
14.4

29.8
16.6
17.0

38.5
17.7
19.0

48.4
18.5
20.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

163.4

267.8

394.8

551.4

740.3

965.7

1224.8

1506.6

1805.6

2119.9

1459
3389
0
4296
3805
12949

1466
3404
0
4237
3842
12949

1462
3429
0
4173
3886
12949

1457
3446
74
4164
3807
12949

1454
3458
158
4164
3715
12949

1448
3478
288
4177
3558
12949

1442
3498
418
4190
3400
12949

1436
3525
492
4194
3301
12949

1429
3552
566
4199
3203
12949

1424
3568
581
4202
3173
12949

1422
3572
538
4203
3213
12949

1420
3576
495
4204
3253
12949

8.61
1.04
9.65
365
6.1
77.3
791
31
43
1005
166
39

10.97
0.26
11.23
427
6.1
102.4
337
43
48
1165
194
48

14.04
0.12
14.17
505
6.2
121.0
369
61
66
1415
221
62

17.11
0.05
17.16
552
6.3
126.0
482
77
99
1805
259
77

20.64
-0.02
20.62
606
6.3
120.2
566
89
119
2277
310
94

24.50
-0.03
24.47
628
6.3
106.2
654
97
127
2758
359
111

27.37
-0.03
27.33
639
6.2
97.9
659
106
113
3217
393
124

29.05
-0.03
29.03
652
6.2
79.6
654
114
88
3547
408
134

30.79
-0.01
30.78
662
6.2
67.0
639
119
84
3772
405
142

32.07
0.00
32.07
672
6.2
49.8
614
115
95
3766
373
151

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run

5.99
1.11
7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38
879
139
31

6.90
1.07
7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40
877
141
32

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data
Page 44 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run

A1C MESSAGE

Page 45 of 241

A1C MESSAGE
OECD90 - A1C MESSAGE

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

859

919

965

1007

1043

1069

1081

1084

1089

1098

1108

1110

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

16.4
14.1

20.6
17.8

25.6
22.1

31.6
27.4

38.7
33.7

46.8
40.8

55.7
48.6

65.7
57.4

77.2
67.6

90.8
79.7

106.6
93.6

124.3
109.4

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
13
66
22
22
1
124

0
11
70
28
29
1
138

0
7
74
34
36
4
155

0
3
74
35
44
8
164

0
2
75
39
53
11
181

0
1
80
37
61
18
197

0
0
87
34
75
24
220

0
0
93
29
90
30
242

0
0
100
30
106
34
269

0
0
98
27
124
37
285

0
0
102
21
141
42
306

0
0
102
15
158
47
322

38
72
33
6
6

46
83
41
7
7

57
81
50
8
6

69
72
60
10
7

80
60
70
13
10

91
46
69
27
14

97
39
75
41
20

102
34
75
56
25

125
29
83
59
28

144
20
75
64
33

183
15
59
65
39

223
12
37
60
44

4
159

5
188

9
211

12
228

15
249

19
267

26
299

37
329

44
368

48
383

54
414

58
435

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.8
0.3

0.9
1.6
0.8

1.4
2.4
1.3

2.1
3.1
1.9

2.9
3.7
2.6

3.8
4.2
3.3

4.9
4.6
4.0

6.2
4.9
4.8

7.8
5.2
5.6

9.6
5.4
6.4

11.9
5.6
7.0

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

64.2

101.4

140.8

181.2

222.2

265.1

312.9

365.9

424.5

490.6

381
760
0
1050
838
3029

380
763
0
1053
833
3029

377
771
0
1052
828
3029

376
774
11
1053
814
3029

375
776
24
1056
798
3029

372
787
44
1062
765
3029

368
797
63
1068
733
3029

364
818
74
1061
712
3029

359
839
86
1054
691
3029

356
849
88
1050
685
3029

356
847
81
1049
695
3029

355
846
75
1048
705
3029

3.57
0.04
3.61
74
2.4
14.9
110
13
14
173
38
14

3.82
0.02
3.83
76
2.4
22.7
108
11
5
167
36
15

4.05
0.00
4.05
80
2.4
25.3
115
9
6
162
33
15

4.04
-0.02
4.02
85
2.4
20.2
118
8
7
188
34
15

4.22
-0.04
4.18
92
2.4
14.0
122
9
9
220
35
16

4.41
0.00
4.41
101
2.4
7.0
123
10
11
241
38
16

5.10
0.05
5.15
114
2.4
8.2
123
12
13
266
44
20

5.39
0.06
5.45
126
2.4
2.1
124
13
16
267
43
22

6.23
0.04
6.27
147
2.4
3.9
125
14
18
271
39
25

6.94
0.01
6.95
164
2.4
5.6
125
16
20
281
35
28

Population

Million

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run

2.83
0.00
2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
23
179
42
13

3.20
0.00
3.20
74
2.6
17.0
58
13
23
161
36
12

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data

Page 46 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run

A1C MESSAGE
REF - A1C MESSAGE

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

413

419

427

433

435

433

423

409

392

374

357

339

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.1
2.6

0.8
2.2

1.0
2.5

2.1
3.7

5.4
6.0

9.4
9.4

12.6
12.6

16.2
16.2

20.0
20.0

24.4
24.4

29.2
29.2

34.4
34.4

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
9
15
14
6
7
50

0
5
10
10
5
6
36

0
3
11
12
6
6
38

0
2
15
16
8
8
48

0
2
19
19
14
11
65

0
1
23
19
19
11
73

0
0
25
18
23
13
80

0
0
25
20
27
15
87

0
0
27
16
32
16
91

0
0
32
10
37
15
95

0
0
34
4
42
18
98

0
0
32
4
45
18
98

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

19
20
27
1
2

13
14
21
1
1

13
13
22
1
1

15
15
30
1
1

21
17
41
1
3

26
19
45
2
4

31
19
47
5
6

37
12
62
6
7

49
9
61
7
10

70
6
48
7
14

104
5
19
8
15

146
4
12
8
19

1
70

1
51

2
51

3
65

5
87

6
101

8
115

10
134

13
149

15
161

17
168

19
208

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.3

0.3
0.3
0.5

0.4
0.5
0.7

0.6
0.6
1.0

0.8
0.8
1.4

1.1
1.0
1.9

1.4
1.2
2.3

1.9
1.3
3.0

2.6
1.4
3.6

3.6
1.5
4.1

4.9
1.5
4.3

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

21.0

32.0

45.0

60.5

77.5

96.7

119.3

145.5

175.8

214.1

268
341
0
966
701
2276

266
361
0
950
698
2276

265
364
0
918
728
2276

265
366
3
904
738
2276

265
367
6
894
745
2276

264
368
11
899
733
2276

263
370
16
905
722
2276

262
371
19
909
715
2276

262
371
22
912
709
2276

261
372
23
916
703
2276

260
373
21
922
700
2276

260
374
20
927
696
2276

0.90
0.18
1.08
43
0.6
11.3
8
5
8
45
15
3

1.12
0.01
1.13
51
0.6
12.8
19
8
10
59
19
4

1.48
0.00
1.47
61
0.6
14.0
29
14
14
82
25
6

1.70
-0.08
1.63
61
0.6
14.3
31
20
18
108
31
8

1.90
-0.15
1.75
62
0.6
14.4
32
21
21
129
36
9

2.21
-0.12
2.10
70
0.6
12.9
33
22
19
150
43
10

2.52
-0.09
2.43
74
0.6
16.9
33
23
15
144
45
11

2.88
-0.07
2.81
81
0.6
22.5
34
24
14
136
44
12

3.33
-0.06
3.27
93
0.6
20.8
33
25
10
134
37
12

4.44
-0.05
4.38
121
0.6
12.4
31
24
11
143
32
13

Population

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run

1.30
0.00
1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8
69
16
5

0.91
0.00
0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6
41
13
3

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data

Page 47 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run

A1C MESSAGE
ASIA - A1C MESSAGE
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2798

3261

3620

3937

4147

4238

4220

4085

3867

3589

3258

2882

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.5
5.3

2.7
8.3

5.8
13.5

13.5
22.8

27.2
36.2

44.9
52.2

65.3
70.0

95.8
96.8

126.9
126.9

155.5
155.5

186.5
186.5

218.2
218.2

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

24
19
13
2
4
1
62

16
36
23
3
7
3
88

12
53
39
6
13
6
128

8
69
59
10
25
11
182

5
75
93
12
47
18
249

3
62
143
18
74
23
323

2
48
199
26
104
28
407

0
42
259
31
145
37
513

0
39
281
34
187
47
588

0
34
292
34
223
58
641

0
29
295
29
249
67
668

0
19
262
23
262
85
651

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

30
15
3
0
24

48
26
5
1
22

68
40
12
3
27

98
54
20
8
34

135
72
30
20
44

191
81
37
34
58

250
80
41
54
77

315
86
40
83
97

377
62
30
125
116

408
40
21
159
134

425
25
15
175
143

386
17
15
174
142

1
74

3
105

6
156

10
226

18
319

27
427

37
538

54
676

69
778

80
842

89
871

101
834

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.2
0.0

0.8
0.5
0.1

1.5
0.8
0.2

2.5
1.4
0.4

3.8
2.1
0.7

5.7
2.9
1.1

8.2
3.7
1.5

11.3
4.6
1.9

15.3
5.2
2.2

19.7
5.6
2.4

24.1
5.8
2.6

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

42.8

77.0

123.7

186.9

267.6

365.9

479.9

602.6

728.4

848.1

438
608
0
535
583
2164

435
606
0
522
601
2164

434
609
0
512
609
2164

433
611
17
524
579
2164

432
613
37
535
547
2164

431
615
68
535
515
2164

431
617
99
535
483
2164

430
618
117
544
456
2164

429
619
134
552
429
2164

428
621
138
556
421
2164

428
622
127
555
431
2164

428
624
117
555
441
2164

2.74
0.22
2.96
152
2.4
33.9
18
8
12
348
49
12

4.03
-0.13
3.90
186
2.4
47.1
45
15
19
463
66
17

5.54
-0.12
5.42
231
2.5
60.9
92
23
28
621
80
24

7.28
-0.04
7.23
252
2.6
69.5
153
30
42
855
101
32

8.87
0.03
8.90
275
2.6
66.1
224
35
50
1131
128
40

10.80
-0.03
10.76
274
2.5
60.7
292
39
55
1414
157
48

12.13
-0.09
12.03
283
2.5
49.5
292
43
48
1647
180
52

12.59
-0.10
12.50
278
2.5
33.7
285
46
35
1821
193
56

12.70
-0.04
12.66
277
2.5
22.4
275
48
33
1930
197
60

11.28
0.01
11.30
260
2.5
14.9
262
46
37
1778
168
58

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run

1.15
0.37
1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4
235
33
7

1.78
0.26
2.03
125
2.6
25.3
5
5
7
270
37
9

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data

Page 48 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run

A1C MESSAGE
ALM - A1C MESSAGE
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1192

1519

1875

2241

2557

2791

2980

3089

3115

3064

2934

2727

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.9
3.8

2.7
5.1

4.4
7.5

9.8
13.3

20.0
22.8

34.3
36.7

53.5
55.3

76.5
76.5

98.7
98.7

122.5
122.5

147.2
147.2

173.1
173.1

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

14
1
17
4
3
0
39

10
5
23
6
5
2
51

7
9
34
10
8
4
72

8
7
53
15
16
8
106

5
11
78
24
31
12
161

4
16
107
31
56
18
231

3
24
150
32
90
26
325

0
26
193
38
133
36
426

0
21
233
37
168
47
505

0
20
251
48
204
55
578

0
15
274
50
236
60
634

0
7
289
51
262
64
672

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

5
21
8
0
14

5
31
13
0
14

7
39
23
0
18

12
50
39
2
26

24
60
66
7
38

46
63
97
15
56

86
71
120
27
75

147
70
121
46
99

199
71
81
73
133

249
47
63
118
150

273
34
52
166
162

307
23
55
191
171

2
49

4
67

7
94

12
141

19
214

30
307

46
425

65
547

79
636

92
718

99
786

102
849

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.3
0.1

0.1
0.6
0.2

0.2
1.0
0.5

0.3
1.5
0.8

0.5
2.1
1.5

1.0
2.7
2.5

1.7
3.4
3.6

2.8
4.1
4.8

4.1
4.8
5.6

5.6
5.3
6.1

7.4
5.6
6.6

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

35.5

57.4

85.3

122.8

173.1

238.0

312.6

392.6

476.9

567.1

371
1680
0
1745
1684
5480

385
1673
0
1711
1710
5480

384
1685
0
1690
1720
5480

383
1695
42
1683
1676
5480

382
1702
90
1680
1625
5480

381
1708
165
1681
1544
5480

381
1714
240
1682
1463
5480

380
1718
282
1681
1419
5480

379
1722
324
1680
1374
5480

379
1726
333
1678
1364
5480

378
1730
308
1676
1387
5480

378
1733
284
1674
1411
5480

0.72
0.73
1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
3
396
48
7

1.01
0.82
1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5
404
55
8

1.40
0.60
2.00
97
0.7
14.1
15
5
10
438
65
10

2.01
0.36
2.37
114
0.7
16.7
39
9
14
476
73
12

2.97
0.25
3.22
134
0.7
17.9
81
14
19
550
83
16

4.09
0.19
4.28
155
0.7
19.1
139
19
32
654
94
22

5.65
0.14
5.78
178
0.7
22.7
184
23
40
798
111
29

7.09
0.12
7.20
184
0.7
22.6
205
26
42
953
120
37

7.62
0.10
7.72
169
0.7
20.2
210
28
37
1160
124
41

8.20
0.08
8.28
167
0.7
18.2
210
30
23
1323
128
44

8.53
0.06
8.59
145
0.7
16.8
206
31
24
1437
132
46

9.42
0.03
9.45
126
0.7
13.9
196
30
26
1564
138
52

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data

Page 49 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run

A1C MINICAM
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1C MINICAM
1990
Population

Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

5293

6100

6874

7618

8122

8484

8703

8623

8430

8126

7621

7137

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

20.7
na

27.4
na

38.1
na

52.7
na

79.7
na

116.4
na

162.8
na

224.0
na

290.2
na

361.5
na

437.8
na

521.8
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
45
121
52
35
0
253

0
57
126
63
54
0
298

0
73
137
77
86
0
374

0
94
157
96
134
0
480

0
118
170
92
209
0
589

0
140
205
85
299
0
729

0
162
260
76
402
0
899

0
129
301
76
509
0
1015

0
105
338
77
608
0
1127

0
89
370
80
698
0
1236

0
80
388
68
763
0
1300

0
72
405
57
829
0
1363

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

88
131
70
24
0

116
135
85
25
6

152
146
125
34
12

199
163
190
49
19

353
125
216
82
35

543
94
231
110
54

769
68
238
133
78

805
75
251
154
123

821
83
263
175
159

818
93
274
196
186

888
63
215
204
209

958
34
157
212
232

24
336

24
391

27
496

32
653

44
854

66
1098

99
1384

160
1567

220
1721

281
1847

338
1918

395
1988

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.1
0.1
0.1

1.2
1.5
0.9

2.6
2.9
2.0

4.2
4.4
3.5

7.5
5.7
5.6

12.1
6.8
7.8

18.2
7.7
10.1

26.2
8.4
12.6

34.3
9.2
15.2

42.5
10.1
17.8

51.2
10.8
20.1

60.0
11.5
22.4

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

163.5

274.5

417.9

601.0

830.2

1088.4

1352.9

1618.4

1881.1

2141.0

1472
3209
0
4173
4310
13164

1466
3348
4
4214
4132
13164

1473
3601
10
4140
3939
13164

1494
3968
20
3951
3732
13164

1477
4357
58
3623
3650
13164

1432
4657
115
3348
3613
13164

1359
4869
190
3126
3620
13164

1194
4662
340
3385
3583
13164

1038
4402
445
3693
3586
13164

891
4090
505
4049
3630
13164

776
3855
575
4192
3767
13164

661
3619
646
4336
3903
13164

5.99
1.11

6.90
1.07

8.58
1.08

10.99
1.55

14.54
1.60

19.10
1.38

24.45
0.92

25.66
0.61

26.42
0.22

26.72
-0.27

27.13
-1.04

27.70
-1.81

7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38

7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40

9.66
359
8.0
81.1
791
31
43

12.54
414
9.3
87.8
337
43
48

16.14
482
10.9
97.5
369
61
66

20.48
563
12.7
92.3
482
77
99

25.37
636
14.4
72.1
566
89
119

26.27
651
14.8
48.1
654
97
127

26.64
663
15.1
33.7
659
106
113

26.46
672
15.3
28.9
654
114
88

26.09
682
15.8
27.9
639
119
84

25.89
693
16.2
26.9
614
115
95

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 50 of 241

A1C MINICAM

Page 51 of 241

A1C MINICAM
OECD90 - A1C MINICAM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

838

908

965

1007

1024

1066

1081

1084

1090

1098

1105

1112

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

16.3
na

20.5
na

25.5
na

31.5
na

34.3
na

44.4
na

53.1
na

62.6
na

73.3
na

85.3
na

100.4
na

116.7
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
10
72
27
22
0
130

0
12
73
36
28
0
150

0
14
74
45
37
0
170

0
14
74
54
48
0
189

0
15
69
50
54
0
187

0
17
62
40
71
0
190

0
19
68
33
85
0
205

0
16
70
31
95
0
212

0
13
74
31
106
0
224

0
12
78
32
118
0
239

0
12
82
28
130
0
251

0
12
86
24
141
0
263

40
76
34
20
0

47
78
47
16
2

49
77
67
14
4

47
75
94
16
5

59
61
92
17
6

98
25
83
19
10

130
11
76
19
14

163
5
73
21
20

203
3
72
23
26

248
2
72
27
30

344
2
51
30
35

441
1
31
32
40

12
182

11
200

10
222

10
247

11
244

13
249

16
266

23
306

31
357

39
417

50
512

61
607

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.1
0.0

0.5
0.8
0.5

1.0
1.6
1.1

1.5
2.4
1.8

1.8
2.6
2.3

3.0
3.3
3.6

4.1
3.5
4.4

5.6
3.5
5.1

7.5
3.6
5.8

9.6
3.6
6.6

12.9
3.6
7.1

16.1
3.6
7.7

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

64.5

103.5

145.0

188.7

236.9

289.4

346.1

407.4

477.3

559.4

408
796
0
921
998
3123

410
820
4
931
959
3123

412
866
7
921
917
3123

414
934
10
894
872
3123

408
967
16
869
863
3123

383
1050
37
806
847
3123

357
1084
53
779
850
3123

310
1043
83
845
842
3123

269
996
105
910
843
3123

233
945
119
972
854
3123

203
901
138
995
885
3123

174
857
157
1018
917
3123

2.83
0.00

3.20
0.00

3.55
0.13

3.86
0.25

3.93
0.25

4.39
0.18

4.99
0.08

5.39
0.05

5.93
-0.04

6.60
-0.20

7.88
-0.31

9.29
-0.43

2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
23

3.20
74
2.6
17.0
58
13
23

3.69
84
2.8
14.0
110
13
14

4.11
97
3.0
4.8
108
11
5

4.18
104
3.2
4.0
115
9
6

4.57
126
3.7
3.9
118
8
7

5.07
145
4.0
4.2
122
9
9

5.44
159
4.0
4.1
123
10
11

5.88
178
4.1
4.3
123
12
13

6.39
201
4.1
4.8
124
13
16

7.57
236
4.2
5.3
125
14
18

8.86
270
4.3
5.8
125
16
20

Population

Million

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 52 of 241

A1C MINICAM
REF - A1C MINICAM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

428

425

426

433

434

431

423

408

392

374

357

340

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.1
na

1.1
na

1.4
na

2.1
na

3.5
na

5.0
na

6.9
na

9.9
na

13.4
na

17.4
na

21.4
na

25.8
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
13
18
19
6
0
56

0
10
12
15
8
0
44

0
9
9
13
13
0
44

0
9
10
15
21
0
55

0
10
11
15
30
0
65

0
11
13
13
39
0
75

0
11
14
11
48
0
85

0
9
16
11
57
0
92

0
7
17
10
64
0
99

0
6
18
10
71
0
105

0
5
18
8
73
0
105

0
5
18
6
76
0
104

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

18
20
26
3
0

17
13
20
4
1

20
11
21
6
1

25
12
30
10
2

68
4
33
14
5

127
0
32
16
7

201
0
28
17
10

175
0
29
18
16

196
0
28
19
20

264
0
27
20
23

228
0
21
19
25

192
0
14
19
27

3
70

3
58

3
63

4
84

6
129

8
190

11
267

17
254

23
286

29
362

33
326

38
290

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.2

0.4
0.3
0.5

0.6
0.4
0.7

1.2
0.5
1.0

2.2
0.5
1.3

3.7
0.5
1.6

5.5
0.5
1.9

7.5
0.5
2.2

9.7
0.5
2.5

12.0
0.5
2.7

14.4
0.5
2.9

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

20.4

31.8

48.8

74.5

110.3

149.8

188.7

233.0

277.8

314.9

284
395
0
1007
691
2377

294
410
0
1016
657
2377

304
453
2
996
622
2377

316
525
5
945
586
2377

320
604
16
864
573
2377

315
666
29
800
567
2377

303
710
44
752
569
2377

263
655
70
827
562
2377

224
593
86
912
563
2377

186
524
91
1005
571
2377

162
491
97
1031
597
2377

138
458
102
1057
622
2377

1.30
0.00

0.91
0.00

0.94
0.03

1.23
0.08

1.97
0.12

2.91
0.12

4.05
0.09

3.67
0.09

3.93
0.07

4.84
0.02

4.20
-0.12

3.60
-0.26

1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8

0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6

0.97
49
0.7
10.4
8
5
8

1.31
69
0.9
10.9
19
8
10

2.09
94
1.2
14.4
29
14
14

3.03
123
1.4
14.6
31
20
18

4.14
154
1.6
11.4
32
21
21

3.76
141
1.6
6.0
33
22
19

4.01
149
1.6
2.8
33
23
15

4.87
178
1.5
2.0
34
24
14

4.08
160
1.6
2.0
33
25
10

3.34
143
1.6
2.0
31
24
11

Population

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 53 of 241

A1C MINICAM
ASIA - A1C MINICAM
Population

1990
Million

2790

2000
3226

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

3608

3937

4115

4210

4219

4062

3852

3589

3245

2919

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.4
na

3.1
na

6.5
na

11.7
na

23.7
na

40.0
na

60.5
na

85.0
na

110.3
na

136.4
na

162.6
na

191.2
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
20
14
2
4
0
40

0
31
19
5
11
0
66

0
46
27
9
25
0
107

0
64
37
13
47
0
160

0
81
49
13
82
0
226

0
97
66
14
123
0
300

0
110
88
14
170
0
381

0
86
102
15
215
0
418

0
68
113
15
255
0
451

0
56
122
16
288
0
482

0
49
124
13
308
0
495

0
42
127
11
328
0
509

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

26
16
3
1
0

45
21
9
4
2

73
29
21
9
5

111
39
40
17
9

177
33
55
32
17

252
27
67
47
26

336
21
78
62
35

362
24
82
70
51

313
28
87
78
64

191
35
92
84
73

193
18
74
85
80

195
2
55
86
86

3
49

4
85

5
142

6
223

11
327

22
442

37
568

64
653

90
661

115
590

136
586

157
581

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.2
0.1

1.1
0.5
0.3

1.9
0.8
0.5

3.6
1.1
1.0

5.8
1.4
1.6

8.5
1.7
2.4

12.1
1.9
3.2

15.3
2.2
4.0

18.0
2.5
4.9

20.0
2.7
5.7

21.9
2.9
6.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

43.0

80.3

134.4

208.0

302.3

409.4

514.9

607.5

688.5

764.9

389
508
0
1168
664
2729

400
524
0
1144
632
2699

410
555
2
1102
600
2669

420
602
5
1043
568
2637

418
648
18
986
555
2625

409
685
32
942
550
2618

392
714
49
910
553
2618

346
704
79
936
547
2612

303
687
99
976
548
2613

263
662
109
1032
556
2622

229
632
126
1079
579
2645

195
603
143
1127
601
2668

1.15
0.37

1.78
0.26

2.80
0.20

4.20
0.27

6.06
0.29

8.09
0.27

10.29
0.20

10.80
0.12

10.15
0.04

8.36
-0.03

8.01
-0.15

7.68
-0.27

1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4

2.03
125
2.6
25.3
5
5
7

3.00
135
2.9
38.8
18
8
12

4.47
148
3.3
52.8
45
15
19

6.36
164
3.8
57.3
92
23
28

8.36
183
4.3
50.9
153
30
42

10.49
206
4.8
33.6
224
35
50

10.92
217
4.8
21.4
292
39
55

10.19
197
4.9
14.0
292
43
48

8.33
145
4.9
11.3
285
46
35

7.87
147
5.0
10.4
275
48
33

7.41
149
5.1
9.4
262
46
37

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 54 of 241

A1C MINICAM
ALM - A1C MINICAM
Population

1990
Million

1236

2000
1541

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1876

2241

2531

2778

2980

3068

3096

3064

2913

2766

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.9
na

2.8
na

4.6
na

7.4
na

15.4
na

27.0
na

42.3
na

66.5
na

93.2
na

122.4
na

153.4
na

188.0
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
2
17
5
3
0
27

0
3
22
7
6
0
38

0
5
28
10
11
0
54

0
7
36
14
18
0
75

0
11
46
17
38
0
113

0
16
64
19
65
0
164

0
21
90
18
99
0
228

0
18
113
19
141
0
293

0
16
134
20
182
0
353

0
15
153
22
221
0
410

0
14
164
19
252
0
449

0
13
175
16
283
0
487

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

4
20
7
0
0

6
23
10
2
1

10
29
16
5
1

15
37
26
7
3

37
41
39
17
6

66
41
49
26
11

102
37
57
35
19

105
46
67
45
35

109
52
76
55
49

116
57
84
65
60

123
43
70
70
70

129
30
56
76
79

5
35

6
48

8
69

11
99

16
156

23
218

34
284

55
353

76
418

98
479

119
494

140
510

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.2
0.1

0.1
0.5
0.2

0.3
0.8
0.4

0.6
1.2
0.8

1.1
1.6
1.2

1.9
2.0
1.7

3.0
2.5
2.4

4.0
3.0
3.1

5.1
3.5
3.9

6.4
4.0
4.6

7.6
4.4
5.3

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

35.6

58.9

89.7

129.8

180.6

239.7

303.3

370.4

437.6

501.8

391
1510
0
3641
1957
7499

363
1594
0
3591
1883
7432

348
1727
0
3480
1800
7354

344
1907
0
3307
1707
7265

337
2105
2
3114
1668
7226

324
2256
16
2957
1649
7202

307
2361
44
2834
1649
7195

275
2260
108
2900
1631
7175

243
2126
155
3020
1631
7175

209
1960
185
3192
1649
7195

182
1830
215
3321
1706
7254

154
1701
244
3450
1762
7312

0.72
0.73

1.01
0.82

1.29
0.72

1.70
0.95

2.57
0.93

3.71
0.80

5.11
0.55

5.80
0.35

6.40
0.15

6.92
-0.06

7.03
-0.46

7.14
-0.86

1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
3

1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5

2.01
90
1.7
14.9
15
5
10

2.65
101
2.1
16.2
39
9
14

3.51
121
2.7
18.8
81
14
19

4.51
131
3.4
19.9
139
19
32

5.67
132
4.0
19.8
184
23
40

6.15
134
4.3
13.6
205
26
42

6.55
139
4.6
9.6
210
28
37

6.87
147
4.7
7.9
210
30
23

6.57
139
5.0
7.2
206
31
24

6.28
130
5.2
6.6
196
30
26

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 55 of 241

A1G AIM
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1G AIM
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Population

5262

6117

6805

7493

8182

8439

8704

8538

8375

8030

7528

7056

20.9

26.6

37.9

56.6

89.7

128.2

183.4

237.8

308.4

382.3

453.3

537.3

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

50
36
111
51
38
0
285

48
34
124
60
50

37
47
159
86
71

26
83
273
150
142

0
88
342
204
220

0
74
543
348
464

0
66
589
379
523

0
57
616
396
560

400

674

868

0
93
412
258
299
0
1061

0
83
477
303
381

315

35
65
206
115
98
0
519

1245

1429

1556

1628

0
48
643
413
596
0
1700

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

93
143
73
6
50

101
167
99
10
48

140
221
146
15
38

179
290
206
26
34

218
385
285
45
35

212
472
397
69
50

206
582
560
117
75

193
600
659
140
126

180
620
778
168
210

168
640
866
192
277

155
659
910
208
286

144
679
956
226
295

10
376

11
435

13
573

16
752

24
993

37
1237

61
1601

95
1813

150
2106

200
2342

225
2442

253
2554

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.1
0.1
0.1

1.0
1.7
0.9

2.3
3.6
2.2

3.8
6.2
3.9

5.8
9.6
6.4

7.7
13.5
9.6

10.1
19.2
14.8

11.8
24.2
20.2

13.7
30.6
27.6

15.6
37.2
36.0

17.1
43.4
44.4

18.8
50.8
54.9

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

170.8

300.6

465.0

662.3

897.6

1161.1

1439.9

1732.0

2032.2

2337.4

1437
3290
0
4249
3966
12942

1487
3287
0
4120
4048
12942

1546
3474
0
3979
3944
12942

1580
3874
2
3816
3671
12942

1554
4315
68
3767
3238
12942

1469
4328
154
3812
3120
12942

1389
4341
348
3858
3006
12942

1266
4184
502
3952
2969
12942

1154
4032
723
4049
2933
12942

1052
3914
879
4140
2950
12942

959
3827
901
4224
3021
12942

874
3741
923
4310
3093
12942

9.67
1.45
11.11
393
7.4
87.4
791
31
43
1226
181
40

13.09
1.78
14.87
470
7.9
100.9
337
43
48
1552
230
49

17.49
0.52
18.01
541
7.8
91.4
369
61
66
1747
269
52

21.11
0.33
21.44
525
7.6
69.3
482
77
99
2008
273
50

25.58
0.05
25.62
511
7.5
64.4
566
89
119
2307
279
49

27.11
-0.03
27.08
449
7.0
47.0
654
97
127
2546
283
47

28.77
-0.10
28.67
396
6.6
35.7
659
106
113
2812
288
45

29.88
-0.11
29.76
353
6.3
30.7
654
114
88
3086
268
43

30.33
-0.07
30.26
319
6.1
28.9
639
119
84
3364
227
41

30.80
-0.01
30.79
289
5.9
27.4
614
115
95
3666
192
40

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 56 of 241

5.99
1.11
7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38
879
139
31

6.90
1.07
7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40
877
141
32

A1G AIM

Page 57 of 241

A1G AIM
OECD90 - A1G AIM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

859

919

960

1002

1043

1062

1081

1086

1091

1097

1103

1110

16.4

20.4

25.2

31.1

38.3

45.7

54.7

64.7

76.7

90.1

105.2

122.8

6
10
64
25
22
0
127

1
9
75
34
28

0
9
79
39
32

0
10
91
47
42

0
9
97
53
49

0
7
111
71
77

0
6
115
76
86

0
6
120
80
96

159

189

209

0
9
104
59
57
0
229

0
8
107
65
67

147

0
9
85
43
36
0
173

248

266

284

301

0
5
125
83
105
0
318

41
76
34
5
6

42
92
51
7
1

43
98
60
10
0

39
106
68
14
0

33
112
75
19
2

34
121
90
20
6

35
131
108
20
14

32
127
120
23
24

29
124
134
26
40

28
125
147
30
53

27
130
158
34
55

27
136
170
38
57

6
167

6
199

7
216

8
233

10
251

12
282

14
322

20
346

27
380

35
416

40
443

46
473

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.1
0.0

0.4
0.9
0.5

0.9
1.9
1.0

1.3
2.9
1.7

1.6
4.0
2.4

1.9
5.0
3.2

2.3
6.4
4.2

2.6
7.5
5.2

2.9
8.8
6.5

3.2
10.1
8.0

3.5
11.4
9.4

3.8
12.8
11.2

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

62.6

97.8

136.5

179.8

229.7

283.2

337.1

391.5

446.4

502.2

410
787
0
1056
886
3140

404
758
0
1065
912
3140

389
750
0
1103
897
3140

373
783
0
1133
850
3140

350
834
7
1176
772
3140

336
843
20
1183
746
3140

321
852
56
1190
721
3140

286
817
78
1231
716
3140

255
783
108
1274
711
3140

227
754
132
1312
712
3140

202
728
142
1344
720
3140

180
703
152
1378
728
3140

3.42
-0.12
3.30
71
2.5
9.9
110
13
14
175
37
12

3.78
-0.05
3.73
71
2.6
6.9
108
11
5
191
39
12

4.14
-0.12
4.02
71
2.5
6.4
115
9
6
213
39
9

4.68
-0.05
4.63
63
2.4
6.3
118
8
7
231
34
7

5.30
0.04
5.34
56
2.3
6.2
122
9
9
250
30
6

5.39
-0.02
5.37
51
2.1
5.9
123
10
11
260
25
6

5.48
-0.07
5.41
47
1.9
5.6
123
12
13
270
21
6

5.56
-0.10
5.46
43
1.8
5.3
124
13
16
286
18
5

5.62
-0.08
5.54
41
1.8
4.9
125
14
18
307
17
5

5.68
-0.07
5.61
38
1.8
4.6
125
16
20
330
16
5

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 58 of 241

2.83
0.00
2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
23
179
42
13

3.20
0.00
3.20
74
2.6
17.0
58
13
23
161
36
12

A1G AIM
REF - A1G AIM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

413

419

424

430

435

429

423

406

391

374

356

339

1.1

0.8

1.5

2.9

5.3

8.2

12.5

15.7

19.8

24.2

29.0

34.6

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

2
9
19
19
8
0
58

5
4
11
14
9

0
4
11
20
11

0
6
13
27
16

0
6
14
37
20

0
4
18
52
29

0
3
20
53
30

0
3
21
53
30

47

61

77

0
6
16
46
25
0
92

0
5
17
49
27

43

0
5
11
23
13
0
53

97

102

105

106

0
2
22
53
30
0
106

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

18
22
26
1
2

12
16
22
1
4

14
17
30
2
0

14
16
35
4
0

14
18
41
5
1

14
20
52
7
1

15
23
65
9
3

13
22
69
10
6

11
22
73
10
9

9
22
75
10
12

8
23
76
11
13

7
24
76
11
13

1
71

1
57

1
64

2
71

2
80

3
98

5
121

7
126

9
135

11
141

12
142

13
144

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.3

0.3
0.4
0.5

0.4
0.5
0.9

0.6
0.7
1.2

0.7
0.9
1.7

0.9
1.1
2.3

1.0
1.3
2.9

1.1
1.5
3.6

1.2
1.8
4.4

1.3
2.0
5.1

1.4
2.2
5.9

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

21.0

32.1

44.1

57.9

74.2

91.6

108.2

124.2

140.0

155.7

279
346
0
960
720
2305

284
357
0
961
703
2305

296
400
0
951
658
2305

298
466
0
952
588
2305

298
551
7
951
497
2305

287
563
15
957
478
2305

276
575
31
963
460
2305

260
565
38
984
455
2305

245
555
46
1007
450
2305

225
540
46
1034
456
2305

202
521
38
1068
471
2305

181
502
31
1103
487
2305

1.06
0.03
1.09
60
0.6
12.2
8
5
8
42
15
3

1.14
0.00
1.14
66
0.7
10.8
19
8
10
45
13
3

1.26
0.00
1.26
68
0.7
7.5
29
14
14
50
13
3

1.50
-0.01
1.49
59
0.6
4.3
31
20
18
55
14
2

1.79
-0.02
1.78
51
0.6
2.4
32
21
21
61
15
2

1.74
-0.04
1.70
49
0.6
2.0
33
22
19
64
15
2

1.69
-0.06
1.63
47
0.5
1.7
33
23
15
67
16
2

1.67
-0.08
1.58
44
0.5
1.6
34
24
14
71
16
1

1.67
-0.10
1.57
42
0.4
1.6
33
25
10
76
16
1

1.68
-0.12
1.56
39
0.4
1.6
31
24
11
80
16
1

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 59 of 241

1.30
0.00
1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8
69
16
5

0.91
0.00
0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6
41
13
3

A1G AIM
ASIA - A1G AIM
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2798

3261

3556

3851

4147

4183

4220

4016

3822

3541

3194

2882

1.5

2.7

5.8

12.3

26.3

40.8

63.4

86.3

117.5

149.4

177.4

210.6

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

28
15
11
2
5
0
61

23
19
15
4
7

19
32
30
9
15

4
59
77
27
46

0
63
100
42
76

0
54
187
94
180

0
48
210
108
208

0
42
224
119
227

105

213

283

0
66
124
56
106
0
352

0
60
155
75
143

68

15
45
49
16
27
0
153

433

514

574

611

0
35
238
129
246
0
648

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

30
17
4
0
28

38
24
8
1
24

68
45
18
2
19

99
74
35
5
14

128
114
61
13
7

117
144
97
23
11

107
182
156
43
17

100
199
196
54
29

94
217
247
66
48

86
233
289
78
64

78
245
313
86
66

70
257
340
95
68

1
80

2
96

2
154

3
230

5
327

10
403

20
525

34
611

56
729

78
827

90
877

103
933

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.2
0.1

0.9
0.6
0.2

1.7
1.2
0.5

2.9
2.1
0.9

3.9
3.3
1.7

5.2
5.1
3.1

6.1
6.7
4.7

7.1
8.8
7.0

8.1
11.2
9.7

8.9
13.4
12.6

9.7
16.2
16.2

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

45.2

87.4

145.6

216.9

299.4

392.5

495.0

606.1

722.7

843.1

390
521
0
527
576
2014

407
524
0
490
593
2014

433
547
0
452
583
2014

457
593
2
417
545
2014

459
643
21
410
482
2014

429
647
41
423
463
2014

401
650
81
436
445
2014

363
631
116
451
438
2014

327
613
166
467
431
2014

302
601
198
478
434
2014

284
597
200
485
448
2014

268
592
201
492
462
2014

3.04
0.40
3.44
156
2.8
42.2
18
8
12
487
55
13

4.56
0.45
5.02
200
3.0
54.5
45
15
19
676
79
17

6.45
0.17
6.62
248
3.1
45.9
92
23
28
836
96
20

7.53
0.11
7.64
246
3.0
20.0
153
30
42
977
100
20

8.79
0.07
8.86
244
3.0
8.5
224
35
50
1139
105
19

9.69
0.07
9.76
202
2.8
8.0
292
39
55
1251
111
18

10.69
0.07
10.75
166
2.7
7.5
292
43
48
1373
117
17

11.39
0.08
11.47
144
2.6
7.1
285
46
35
1502
109
15

11.74
0.11
11.85
130
2.5
6.7
275
48
33
1637
89
14

12.09
0.14
12.23
118
2.4
6.3
262
46
37
1783
71
13

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 60 of 241

1.15
0.37
1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4
235
33
7

1.78
0.26
2.03
125
2.6
25.3
5
5
7
270
37
9

A1G AIM
ALM - A1G AIM
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1192

1519

1865

2211

2557

2761

2980

3024

3067

3013

2866

2727

1.9

2.7

5.3

10.3

19.8

32.3

52.8

70.4

93.9

118.6

141.7

169.4

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

14
1
17
4
4
0
40

19
2
22
9
6

18
3
39
18
12

22
9
93
49
39

0
10
131
73
75

0
10
227
132
178

0
8
244
142
199

0
7
251
145
208

90

211

299

0
12
169
96
111
0
388

0
11
198
114
144

57

20
6
60
33
21
0
140

467

546

594

611

0
6
258
147
216
0
628

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

5
27
9
0
14

8
35
18
0
18

16
62
38
1
19

27
94
68
3
20

44
142
108
8
26

47
187
158
19
32

50
247
231
44
40

48
252
273
54
67

46
257
323
65
112

44
260
356
74
148

42
261
363
78
152

40
262
371
82
157

2
57

2
82

3
138

4
217

7
334

12
455

22
634

35
729

57
861

76
957

83
980

92
1004

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.3
0.1

0.2
0.8
0.4

0.4
1.6
1.0

0.8
2.8
1.8

1.1
4.3
3.1

1.7
6.7
5.2

2.1
8.7
7.4

2.6
11.4
10.5

3.1
14.1
13.9

3.5
16.6
17.3

1.7
6.7
12.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

41.9

83.3

138.7

207.7

294.4

393.8

499.5

610.2

723.0

836.5

357
1636
0
1706
1784
5483

391
1648
0
1604
1840
5483

427
1776
0
1474
1806
5483

451
2032
0
1313
1687
5483

446
2287
33
1230
1487
5483

417
2275
77
1249
1433
5483

390
2264
180
1269
1380
5483

357
2171
269
1285
1361
5483

327
2081
402
1302
1341
5483

298
2019
501
1315
1348
5483

271
1981
520
1327
1382
5483

246
1944
539
1338
1416
5483

2.15
1.14
3.29
106
1.5
20.3
15
5
10
522
75
12

3.61
1.37
4.98
134
1.8
25.7
39
9
14
640
99
17

5.64
0.47
6.11
155
1.6
28.7
81
14
19
649
121
20

7.40
0.28
7.68
157
1.5
35.7
139
19
32
745
125
21

9.70
-0.05
9.65
160
1.5
44.2
184
23
40
857
130
21

10.29
-0.04
10.25
148
1.5
28.0
205
26
42
971
132
21

10.92
-0.03
10.89
136
1.5
17.8
210
28
37
1101
134
21

11.26
-0.01
11.25
122
1.4
13.7
210
30
23
1227
125
21

11.30
0.00
11.31
107
1.4
12.8
206
31
24
1344
106
21

11.35
0.04
11.39
93
1.4
12.0
196
30
26
1472
89
21

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 61 of 241

0.72
0.73
1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
3
396
48
7

1.01
0.82
1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5
404
55
8

A1G MESSAGE
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1G MESSAGE
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Population

5262

6117

6888

7617

8182

8531

8704

8667

8463

8125

7658

7056

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

20.9
25.7

26.8
33.4

36.8
45.7

57.0
67.2

91.3
98.7

135.4
139.0

187.1
186.4

254.1
246.8

322.9
313.2

393.2
382.0

469.6
456.6

550.0
535.0

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

38
42
111
41
35
8
275

25
57
125
47
46
11
311

20
67
157
62
64
18
387

16
75
190
76
101
29
487

10
84
241
100
161
45
640

7
88
292
132
242
55
815

5
74
374
161
344
67
1024

0
47
453
215
464
86
1265

0
39
491
235
573
106
1444

0
25
525
253
668
124
1595

0
5
525
284
749
143
1705

0
3
510
300
800
152
1765

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

91
128
71
7
46

104
155
85
8
44

130
172
119
11
54

167
194
164
17
76

220
235
236
30
107

266
279
328
54
145

272
365
449
90
193

261
451
649
128
243

259
479
796
169
311

214
506
916
225
381

153
461
1089
282
409

84
391
1239
332
414

8
352

13
409

23
509

38
657

61
889

91
1163

125
1495

165
1898

203
2217

237
2479

264
2658

277
2737

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.9
1.4
0.8

2.0
3.0
1.6

3.3
4.7
2.8

4.9
6.7
4.4

7.1
9.0
6.8

9.8
11.8
10.1

12.5
15.4
14.6

15.1
20.0
21.1

17.7
24.7
29.0

19.9
29.8
38.2

21.4
34.4
49.1

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

162.9

265.1

390.3

549.0

744.1

981.7

1257.3

1555.3

1863.7

2170.9

1459
3389
0
4296
3805
12949

1466
3404
0

1462
3429
0

1457
3446
74

1454
3458
158

1448
3478
288

1442
3498
418

1436
3525
492

1429
3552
566

1424
3568
581

1422
3572
538

1420
3576
495

4237
3842
12949

4173
3886
12949

4164
3807
12949

4164
3715
12949

4177
3558
12949

4190
3400
12949

4194
3301
12949

4199
3203
12949

4202
3173
12949

4203
3213
12949

4204
3253
12949

8.49
1.04
9.54
363
6.1
64.3
791
31
43
986
160
38

10.66
0.26
10.91
419
6.1
60.3
337
43
48
1123
178
46

14.00
0.12
14.12
496
6.2
63.9
369
61
66
1344
200
59

17.56
0.05
17.61
538
6.3
71.9
482
77
99
1616
237
72

21.45
-0.02
21.42
566
6.4
69.0
566
89
119
2026
297
89

26.11
-0.03
26.08
555
6.3
59.1
654
97
127
2399
370
108

29.08
-0.03
29.04
531
6.3
51.2
659
106
113
2717
416
118

30.58
-0.03
30.55
497
6.2
45.7
654
114
88
3033
459
124

31.14
-0.01
31.13
474
6.2
43.1
639
119
84
3199
474
129

30.31
0.00
30.31
436
6.2
40.5
614
115
95
3261
484
133

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run

5.99
1.11
7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38
879
139
31

6.90
1.07
7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40
877
141
32

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data
Page 62 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run

A1G MESSAGE

Page 63 of 241

A1G MESSAGE
OECD90 - A1G MESSAGE

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

859

919

965

1007

1043

1069

1081

1084

1089

1098

1108

1110

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

16.4
14.1

20.6
17.8

25.6
22.1

31.6
27.4

38.7
33.7

46.8
40.8

55.7
48.6

65.7
57.4

77.2
67.6

90.8
79.7

106.6
93.6

124.3
109.4

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
13
66
22
22
1
124

0
11
69
28
28
1
138

0
6
77
33
35
3
153

0
3
75
34
45
5
162

0
1
73
38
58
8
178

0
1
71
41
73
10
195

0
0
79
38
89
12
218

0
0
86
33
106
16
241

0
0
87
30
124
23
264

0
0
94
25
139
27
284

0
0
100
22
153
31
305

0
0
105
18
165
32
321

38
72
33
6
6

38
84
45
7
7

45
83
55
8
7

52
75
66
10
13

57
67
78
15
19

55
64
87
26
24

40
76
101
41
29

26
80
118
53
32

20
82
140
59
36

19
91
139
68
40

17
99
156
68
43

15
99
162
74
47

4
159

5
186

9
206

12
227

16
252

22
278

28
315

35
345

44
381

49
406

54
437

57
453

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.8
0.4

0.8
1.6
0.8

1.2
2.5
1.4

1.7
3.2
2.0

2.3
3.9
2.8

2.9
4.5
3.7

3.3
5.3
4.7

3.7
6.1
5.9

4.0
6.9
7.3

4.2
7.8
8.7

4.4
8.8
10.3

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

63.7

99.8

137.4

175.8

214.5

253.8

294.7

337.5

382.5

428.6

381
760
0
1050
838
3029

380
763
0

377
771
0

376
774
11

375
776
24

372
787
44

368
797
63

364
818
74

359
839
86

356
849
88

356
847
81

355
846
75

1053
833
3029

1052
828
3029

1053
814
3029

1056
798
3029

1062
765
3029

1068
733
3029

1061
712
3029

1054
691
3029

1050
685
3029

1049
695
3029

1048
705
3029

3.49
0.04
3.52
73
2.4
8.9
110
13
14
172
37
13

3.67
0.02
3.69
73
2.4
1.7
108
11
5
176
35
14

3.84
0.00
3.84
77
2.4
0.8
115
9
6
173
30
14

3.87
-0.02
3.84
81
2.4
0.5
118
8
7
184
29
14

3.93
-0.04
3.89
79
2.3
0.8
122
9
9
205
31
13

3.96
0.00
3.97
75
2.3
1.5
123
10
11
214
33
13

4.17
0.05
4.22
73
2.3
2.1
123
12
13
217
36
14

4.28
0.06
4.34
66
2.3
3.4
124
13
16
228
39
15

4.61
0.04
4.65
62
2.3
4.9
125
14
18
236
43
17

4.58
0.01
4.59
56
2.3
5.8
125
16
20
234
44
18

Population

Million

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run

2.83
0.00
2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
23
179
42
13

3.20
0.00
3.20
74
2.6
17.0
58
13
23
161
36
12

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data

Page 64 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run

A1G MESSAGE
REF - A1G MESSAGE

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

413

419

427

433

435

433

423

409

392

374

357

339

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.1
2.6

0.8
2.2

1.0
2.5

2.1
3.7

5.4
6.0

9.4
9.4

12.6
12.6

16.2
16.2

20.0
20.0

24.4
24.4

29.2
29.2

34.4
34.4

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
9
15
14
6
7
50

0
4
10
10
5
6
35

0
3
10
12
6
6
38

0
3
12
16
9
8
47

0
3
16
19
15
12
64

0
1
16
20
21
14
71

0
1
22
16
27
13
79

0
0
28
12
33
14
86

0
0
29
9
38
15
90

0
0
28
8
42
16
94

0
0
27
7
46
16
97

0
0
28
5
49
16
97

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

19
20
27
1
2

13
14
21
1
1

10
13
25
1
1

14
13
29
1
3

20
16
36
2
6

23
16
38
4
10

22
19
40
7
14

25
27
45
11
17

23
30
49
16
28

21
32
60
20
32

21
23
71
25
33

20
19
92
24
33

1
70

1
51

2
51

3
63

5
85

7
98

9
112

12
138

16
162

19
183

21
193

23
211

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.3

0.3
0.3
0.5

0.4
0.5
0.7

0.5
0.6
1.0

0.7
0.8
1.4

1.0
0.9
1.8

1.2
1.1
2.2

1.4
1.4
2.6

1.7
1.7
3.1

1.9
2.0
3.7

2.1
2.2
4.4

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

20.7

31.0

42.9

56.6

70.5

86.1

104.0

123.2

143.1

163.9

268
341
0
966
701
2276

266
361
0

265
364
0

265
366
3

265
367
6

264
368
11

263
370
16

262
371
19

262
371
22

261
372
23

260
373
21

260
374
20

950
698
2276

918
728
2276

904
738
2276

894
745
2276

899
733
2276

905
722
2276

909
715
2276

912
709
2276

916
703
2276

922
700
2276

927
696
2276

0.85
0.18
1.03
42
0.6
7.2
8
5
8
46
16
3

1.02
0.01
1.03
50
0.6
4.8
19
8
10
52
20
4

1.35
0.00
1.34
59
0.6
3.9
29
14
14
82
26
5

1.46
-0.08
1.39
59
0.6
4.5
31
20
18
97
32
6

1.54
-0.15
1.39
53
0.6
4.1
32
21
21
110
38
6

1.86
-0.12
1.74
52
0.6
4.2
33
22
19
115
55
6

1.94
-0.09
1.85
51
0.6
3.3
33
23
15
118
78
6

2.06
-0.07
1.99
51
0.6
3.3
34
24
14
110
96
5

2.05
-0.06
1.98
51
0.6
3.1
33
25
10
99
93
4

2.24
-0.05
2.19
50
0.6
3.3
31
24
11
81
99
5

Population

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run

1.30
0.00
1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8
69
16
5

0.91
0.00
0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6
41
13
3

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data

Page 65 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run

A1G MESSAGE
ASIA - A1G MESSAGE
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2798

3261

3620

3937

4147

4238

4220

4085

3867

3589

3258

2882

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.5
5.3

2.7
8.3

5.8
13.5

13.5
22.8

27.2
36.2

44.9
52.2

65.3
70.0

95.8
96.8

126.9
126.9

155.5
155.5

186.5
186.5

218.2
218.2

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

24
19
13
2
4
1
62

15
37
22
3
7
2
87

11
52
37
6
14
6
125

8
63
55
10
27
10
174

5
71
83
17
48
16
239

3
74
116
29
79
17
318

2
56
162
43
118
22
404

0
37
188
87
167
31
510

0
28
201
105
212
38
585

0
17
213
111
253
43
638

0
3
211
117
285
52
668

0
2
198
119
298
59
676

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

30
15
3
0
24

48
26
5
1
22

67
38
15
2
28

90
55
29
4
37

124
79
49
8
47

165
108
77
14
59

176
152
116
23
80

163
170
212
36
109

145
169
287
56
127

116
172
332
87
142

79
139
381
121
151

42
103
429
143
153

1
74

3
105

5
156

12
226

21
327

30
453

42
588

56
746

69
853

81
929

91
962

96
965

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.2
0.0

0.8
0.4
0.1

1.5
0.8
0.2

2.4
1.4
0.5

3.6
2.2
1.0

5.3
3.3
1.8

7.0
4.8
2.9

8.6
6.5
5.0

10.0
8.2
7.9

11.2
9.9
11.2

12.1
11.3
15.1

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

42.7

76.5

123.2

189.5

276.1

379.6

494.4

614.1

732.3

843.7

438
608
0
535
583
2164

435
606
0

434
609
0

433
611
17

432
613
37

431
615
68

431
617
99

430
618
117

429
619
134

428
621
138

428
622
127

428
624
117

522
601
2164

512
609
2164

524
579
2164

535
547
2164

535
515
2164

535
483
2164

544
456
2164

552
429
2164

556
421
2164

555
431
2164

555
441
2164

2.73
0.22
2.95
151
2.4
31.2
18
8
12
345
46
12

3.94
-0.13
3.81
182
2.4
36.0
45
15
19
425
54
16

5.65
-0.12
5.54
226
2.5
40.5
92
23
28
554
63
23

7.77
-0.04
7.72
242
2.6
47.4
153
30
42
701
77
31

9.58
0.03
9.60
254
2.6
42.2
224
35
50
928
107
40

11.13
-0.03
11.09
238
2.6
31.7
292
39
55
1103
130
49

11.96
-0.09
11.87
216
2.6
24.2
292
43
48
1227
144
53

12.16
-0.10
12.07
198
2.6
19.7
285
46
35
1318
155
55

11.61
-0.04
11.57
183
2.5
17.1
275
48
33
1390
155
54

10.70
0.01
10.71
162
2.5
15.1
262
46
37
1372
150
54

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run

1.15
0.37
1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4
235
33
7

1.78
0.26
2.03
125
2.6
25.3
5
5
7
270
37
9

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data

Page 66 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run

A1G MESSAGE
ALM - A1G MESSAGE
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1192

1519

1875

2241

2557

2791

2980

3089

3115

3064

2934

2727

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.9
3.8

2.7
5.1

4.4
7.5

9.8
13.3

20.0
22.8

34.3
36.7

53.5
55.3

76.5
76.5

98.7
98.7

122.5
122.5

147.2
147.2

173.1
173.1

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

14
1
17
4
3
0
39

10
5
24
6
5
2
51

9
6
33
11
9
3
71

8
6
49
16
19
6
104

5
9
70
26
40
9
159

4
13
90
43
68
14
231

3
17
111
63
110
20
324

0
10
151
83
158
26
428

0
11
174
91
199
31
506

0
8
190
109
234
38
579

0
2
186
138
266
45
635

0
1
179
159
288
46
672

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

5
21
8
0
14

5
31
14
0
14

8
39
24
1
17

12
51
41
2
24

19
72
73
6
36

23
91
126
11
53

35
119
192
18
70

47
175
273
27
86

71
197
321
38
121

59
212
385
51
168

36
199
482
68
183

8
170
555
92
182

2
49

4
67

7
96

12
142

21
225

32
335

47
481

62
670

75
822

88
961

98
1065

102
1109

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.3
0.1

0.1
0.6
0.2

0.2
1.0
0.5

0.3
1.5
0.9

0.5
2.2
1.6

0.7
3.1
2.9

1.0
4.3
4.8

1.5
6.0
7.5

2.1
8.0
10.7

2.6
10.1
14.5

2.9
12.1
19.3

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

35.7

57.8

86.8

127.1

183.0

262.2

364.1

480.4

605.8

734.6

371
1680
0
1745
1684
5480

385
1673
0

384
1685
0

383
1695
42

382
1702
90

381
1708
165

381
1714
240

380
1718
282

379
1722
324

379
1726
333

378
1730
308

378
1733
284

1711
1710
5480

1690
1720
5480

1683
1676
5480

1680
1625
5480

1681
1544
5480

1682
1463
5480

1681
1419
5480

1680
1374
5480

1678
1364
5480

1676
1387
5480

1674
1411
5480

1.01
0.82
1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5
404
55
8

1.43
0.60
2.03
98
0.7
14.0
15
5
10
423
61
9

2.03
0.36
2.39
114
0.7
14.7
39
9
14
469
70
12

3.15
0.25
3.40
134
0.7
15.8
81
14
19
535
82
17

4.47
0.19
4.66
155
0.7
16.5
139
19
32
634
98
22

6.41
0.14
6.54
180
0.8
18.8
184
23
40
782
122
30

9.16
0.12
9.28
190
0.8
18.6
205
26
42
967
152
40

11.01
0.10
11.11
192
0.8
18.7
210
28
37
1154
159
45

12.07
0.08
12.15
181
0.8
16.4
210
30
23
1378
169
49

12.88
0.06
12.93
179
0.8
14.9
206
31
24
1473
184
53

12.78
0.03
12.82
168
0.8
13.3
196
30
26
1573
191
56

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run

0.72
0.73
1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
3
396
48
7

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data

Page 67 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run

A1G MINICAM
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1G MINICAM
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

Population

5293

6100

6874

7618

8122

8484

8703

8623

8430

8126

7621

7137

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

20.7
na

27.4
na

38.1
na

52.8
na

80.0
na

117.1
na

164.0
na

226.1
na

293.3
na

365.7
na

441.6
na

525.0
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
45
121
52
35
0
253

0
57
126
63
54
0
300

0
73
141
81
86
0
381

0
94
165
105
133
0
497

0
118
182
126
207
0
634

0
140
229
141
301
0
810

0
158
306
150
413
0
1027

0
128
366
182
525
0
1201

0
108
423
212
630
0
1373

0
99
476
242
728
0
1546

0
89
455
232
782
0
1559

0
79
435
223
837
0
1572

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

88
131
70
24
0

115
136
85
26
6

150
150
129
35
12

193
173
203
51
18

299
165
268
79
28

393
202
333
108
40

475
283
398
137
52

448
353
494
155
73

432
416
573
177
85

429
471
634
201
89

518
359
606
217
106

607
248
578
233
123

24
336

24
392

27
503

32
669

42
882

60
1135

86
1431

128
1650

169
1850

208
2032

246
2052

284
2073

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.1
0.1
0.1

1.2
1.5
0.9

2.6
2.9
2.1

4.2
4.5
3.6

7.0
6.2
6.1

10.4
8.1
9.2

14.6
10.4
12.7

19.1
13.8
17.4

23.6
17.7
22.8

27.9
22.0
28.7

32.9
25.8
34.8

37.9
29.6
40.9

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

163.9

276.2

420.8

601.6

820.9

1068.8

1333.7

1613.5

1899.0

2182.3

1472
3209
0
4173
4310
13164

1466
3348
4
4214
4132
13164

1474
3602
9
4140
3940
13164

1495
3970
16
3951
3733
13164

1481
4367
30
3625
3662
13164

1439
4681
47
3362
3636
13164

1369
4911
68
3162
3655
13164

1208
4730
115
3471
3641
13164

1053
4478
130
3838
3664
13164

903
4155
116
4265
3725
13164

786
3918
162
4432
3867
13164

669
3682
208
4598
4008
13164

5.99
1.11

6.90
1.07

8.65
1.08

11.19
1.55

14.61
1.57

18.66
1.31

23.10
0.80

25.14
0.55

27.12
0.16

29.04
-0.36

29.64
-1.22

30.32
-2.08

7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38
879
139
31

7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40
877
141
32

9.73
359
8.0
80.8
791
31
43
1020
166
40

12.73
416
9.3
86.9
337
43
48
1204
192
50

16.19
489
10.9
96.1
369
61
66
1436
214
63

19.97
567
12.8
94.0
482
77
99
1726
256
77

23.90
630
14.5
80.5
566
89
119
2159
322
95

25.69
655
15.0
56.3
654
97
127
2270
361
102

27.28
677
15.4
42.6
659
106
113
2483
405
109

28.68
695
15.7
39.4
654
114
88
2776
449
115

28.42
715
16.1
39.8
639
119
84
2685
435
111

28.24
735
16.6
40.1
614
115
95
2570
420
110

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 68 of 241

2100

A1G MINICAM

Page 69 of 241

A1G MINICAM
OECD90 - A1G MINICAM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

838

908

965

1007

1024

1066

1081

1084

1090

1098

1105

1112

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

16.3
na

20.5
na

25.6
na

31.5
na

34.4
na

44.6
na

53.5
na

63.2
na

74.2
na

86.4
na

101.4
na

117.7
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
10
72
27
22
0
130

0
13
73
36
28
0
151

0
14
75
47
37
0
173

0
14
77
59
48
0
197

0
14
73
60
53
0
199

0
15
70
62
70
0
217

0
17
81
62
85
0
245

0
13
87
70
95
0
265

0
12
94
80
105
0
290

0
12
102
91
116
0
320

0
12
97
90
126
0
325

0
12
93
89
137
0
330

40
76
34
20
0

47
78
47
16
2

48
79
69
14
4

45
79
100
16
5

51
71
103
17
5

70
59
112
18
7

82
70
116
18
9

86
71
131
19
11

93
72
146
22
13

104
74
160
25
13

167
34
158
29
17

231
-6
157
33
20

12
182

11
201

10
225

10
254

10
257

12
279

14
310

18
336

23
368

28
404

35
440

42
476

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.1
0.0

0.5
0.9
0.5

1.0
1.6
1.1

1.4
2.4
1.9

1.7
2.8
2.4

2.6
3.7
4.0

3.4
4.3
5.2

4.2
5.1
6.4

5.1
5.8
7.8

6.1
6.5
9.3

7.6
6.9
10.9

9.2
7.3
12.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

64.7

104.3

146.6

191.0

239.5

291.7

346.9

405.7

469.9

541.6

408
796
0
921
998
3123

410
820
4
931
959
3123

412
866
6
921
917
3123

414
935
8
894
872
3123

409
970
10
869
865
3123

385
1058
18
809
853
3123

358
1094
24
787
858
3123

312
1058
34
864
856
3123

272
1013
38
938
861
3123

238
962
36
1011
876
3123

207
918
50
1039
909
3123

177
873
63
1067
942
3123

2.83
0.00

3.20
0.00

3.58
0.13

3.95
0.25

4.03
0.24

4.46
0.16

5.02
0.05

5.34
0.02

5.76
-0.07

6.30
-0.24

7.14
-0.35

8.02
-0.47

2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
23
179
42
13

3.20
74
2.6
17.0
58
13
23
161
36
12

3.72
86
2.8
13.9
110
13
14
181
39
14

4.19
101
3.0
4.7
108
11
5
199
39
16

4.27
108
3.2
4.0
115
9
6
187
32
15

4.63
131
3.7
4.2
118
8
7
211
33
16

5.07
149
4.0
5.1
122
9
9
250
37
16

5.36
172
4.1
5.2
123
10
11
269
41
16

5.69
196
4.2
5.7
123
12
13
274
45
18

6.06
223
4.2
6.5
124
13
16
304
52
20

6.78
246
4.3
7.3
125
14
18
307
55
23

7.55
270
4.4
8.0
125
16
20
319
60
24

Population

Million

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 70 of 241

A1G MINICAM
REF - A1G MINICAM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

428

425

426

433

434

431

423

408

392

374

357

340

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.1
na

1.1
na

1.4
na

2.1
na

3.5
na

5.1
na

6.9
na

10.0
na

13.6
na

17.7
na

21.6
na

26.0
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
13
18
19
6
0
56

0
10
12
15
8
0
44

0
9
9
14
13
0
45

0
9
11
17
21
0
57

0
9
12
20
29
0
70

0
10
14
22
38
0
84

0
11
17
22
48
0
97

0
8
19
26
58
0
110

0
7
21
29
66
0
122

0
6
22
32
73
0
133

0
5
21
28
73
0
127

0
5
19
25
74
0
122

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

18
20
26
3
0

17
14
20
4
1

19
11
22
6
1

24
13
33
10
2

46
6
41
13
3

60
3
47
16
5

68
5
50
17
6

60
10
59
18
8

53
15
65
19
9

45
22
69
20
9

61
19
61
20
10

77
15
54
20
11

3
70

3
58

3
63

4
85

5
115

7
138

10
156

14
168

18
178

21
186

24
195

27
205

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.2

0.4
0.3
0.5

0.6
0.4
0.7

1.0
0.5
1.1

1.5
0.5
1.6

2.1
0.6
2.0

2.8
0.7
2.6

3.3
0.8
3.2

3.8
1.0
3.9

4.4
1.2
4.5

5.0
1.4
5.1

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

20.4

31.9

47.9

68.7

92.9

118.8

145.1

171.0

196.4

221.3

284
395
0
1007
691
2377

294
410
0
1016
657
2377

304
454
1
996
622
2377

316
526
4
945
587
2377

320
608
8
865
575
2377

316
673
13
804
571
2377

303
719
18
762
575
2377

263
666
25
850
573
2377

223
601
25
950
578
2377

183
525
19
1061
590
2377

159
492
23
1088
616
2377

135
458
27
1115
642
2377

1.30
0.00

0.91
0.00

0.94
0.03

1.24
0.08

1.76
0.12

2.17
0.12

2.47
0.07

2.53
0.10

2.54
0.09

2.53
0.03

2.66
-0.14

2.79
-0.32

1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8
69
16
5

0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6
41
13
3

0.97
49
0.7
10.3
8
5
8
49
17
3

1.32
68
0.9
10.5
19
8
10
63
24
4

1.88
91
1.2
13.3
29
14
14
103
32
7

2.29
109
1.4
13.4
31
20
18
136
45
8

2.55
122
1.6
10.7
32
21
21
166
57
9

2.63
123
1.6
5.8
33
22
19
151
72
8

2.63
122
1.6
3.1
33
23
15
151
100
7

2.56
120
1.5
2.4
34
24
14
130
114
6

2.52
120
1.6
2.5
33
25
10
120
113
5

2.48
121
1.6
2.6
31
24
11
89
110
5

Population

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 71 of 241

A1G MINICAM
ASIA - A1G MINICAM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2790

3226

3608

3937

4115

4210

4219

4062

3852

3589

3245

2919

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.4
na

3.1
na

6.5
na

11.7
na

23.8
na

40.3
na

61.0
na

86.0
na

111.7
na

138.3
na

164.3
na

192.6
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
20
14
2
4
0
40

0
31
19
5
11
0
67

0
46
28
9
25
0
109

0
64
39
15
47
0
165

0
84
53
20
84
0
240

0
99
74
24
129
0
327

0
111
103
29
182
0
424

0
88
123
37
232
0
480

0
73
141
43
276
0
533

0
66
156
49
314
0
584

0
57
146
46
328
0
576

0
48
136
42
343
0
569

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

26
16
3
1
0

45
21
9
4
2

73
30
22
9
5

110
42
43
18
9

165
48
71
33
15

212
66
103
49
20

251
97
137
67
26

221
126
174
74
35

200
148
200
82
41

188
165
216
91
42

194
136
200
94
48

200
107
183
98
54

3
49

4
85

5
145

6
228

11
342

20
470

33
611

52
682

71
742

88
790

102
774

116
758

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.2
0.1

1.1
0.5
0.3

1.9
0.8
0.5

3.4
1.3
1.2

5.3
1.9
2.1

7.6
2.7
3.2

9.8
3.9
4.9

12.0
5.2
6.7

13.9
6.8
8.8

15.8
8.2
10.8

17.8
9.6
12.8

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

43.1

80.9

135.9

210.1

303.5

407.6

513.8

621.8

727.3

826.4

389
508
0
1168
664
2729

400
524
0
1144
632
2699

410
555
1
1102
600
2669

420
602
4
1044
568
2637

422
650
8
988
557
2627

416
690
13
948
555
2622

403
721
19
922
559
2624

358
712
33
960
557
2621

316
695
37
1016
562
2625

275
669
32
1088
573
2637

238
640
44
1144
596
2662

202
610
55
1199
620
2686

1.15
0.37

1.78
0.26

2.82
0.20

4.27
0.27

6.17
0.29

8.12
0.26

10.13
0.17

10.42
0.10

10.68
0.03

10.93
-0.05

10.42
-0.19

9.92
-0.33

1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4
235
33
7

2.03
125
2.6
25.3
5
5
7
270
37
9

3.02
135
2.9
38.8
18
8
12
371
50
13

4.54
148
3.3
52.7
45
15
19
494
63
19

6.46
166
3.8
57.1
92
23
28
639
73
26

8.38
186
4.3
51.9
153
30
42
777
86
34

10.30
208
4.8
37.0
224
35
50
1030
119
44

10.52
198
4.9
24.3
292
39
55
1067
126
47

10.71
189
5.0
17.0
292
43
48
1133
133
48

10.88
179
5.1
15.1
285
46
35
1226
144
51

10.23
181
5.2
14.6
275
48
33
1242
139
49

9.59
182
5.3
14.1
262
46
37
1187
130
47

Population

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 72 of 241

2100

A1G MINICAM
ALM - A1G MINICAM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

1236

1541

1876

2241

2531

2778

2980

3068

3096

3064

2913

2766

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.9
na

2.8
na

4.6
na

7.4
na

15.4
na

27.1
na

42.5
na

66.9
na

93.9
na

123.4
na

154.2
na

188.7
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
2
17
5
3
0
27

0
3
22
7
6
0
38

0
5
29
10
11
0
55

0
7
38
15
18
0
78

0
11
49
25
37
0
121

0
15
71
32
63
0
182

0
20
105
38
98
0
261

0
17
138
49
141
0
346

0
16
168
60
184
0
428

0
16
197
71
225
0
509

0
15
192
69
254
0
530

0
14
187
66
283
0
551

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

4
20
7
0
0

6
23
10
2
1

10
30
17
5
1

14
39
27
7
2

31
49
49
16
5

50
73
72
25
8

73
111
95
35
12

80
147
131
44
18

87
180
162
54
22

92
210
189
65
25

95
171
187
73
31

99
132
185
81
38

5
35

6
48

8
70

11
102

15
165

21
249

29
355

44
464

58
563

71
652

85
643

99
634

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.2
0.1

0.1
0.5
0.2

0.3
0.8
0.4

0.5
1.3
0.9

1.0
2.0
1.5

1.5
2.8
2.3

2.3
4.2
3.5

3.2
5.9
5.0

4.0
7.8
6.7

5.0
9.5
8.6

5.9
11.3
10.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

35.6

59.1

90.4

131.7

185.0

250.8

327.9

415.1

505.5

593.1

391
1510
0
3641
1957
7499

363
1594
0
3591
1883
7432

348
1727
0
3480
1800
7354

344
1907
0
3307
1707
7265

335
2104
0
3118
1672
7229

322
2260
2
2968
1657
7210

305
2376
6
2857
1662
7206

274
2294
23
2949
1655
7196

242
2168
31
3100
1663
7204

208
1998
29
3309
1688
7232

181
1869
46
3451
1746
7293

154
1740
63
3593
1805
7355

0.72
0.73

1.01
0.82

1.30
0.72

1.73
0.95

2.66
0.92

3.91
0.77

5.48
0.50

6.86
0.32

8.13
0.12

9.27
-0.09

9.43
-0.53

9.58
-0.96

1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
3
396
48
7

1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5
404
55
8

2.02
90
1.7
14.9
15
5
10
420
60
9

2.68
100
2.1
16.1
39
9
14
448
66
11

3.58
124
2.7
18.6
81
14
19
506
76
15

4.68
141
3.4
21.5
139
19
32
601
91
19

5.98
150
4.1
24.7
184
23
40
714
110
25

7.18
162
4.4
17.9
205
26
42
783
121
30

8.25
170
4.6
13.8
210
28
37
925
127
35

9.18
173
4.8
12.4
210
30
23
1117
138
38

8.90
168
5.0
12.4
206
31
24
1016
128
35

8.62
162
5.3
12.4
196
30
26
975
119
33

Population

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 73 of 241

2100

A1V1 MINICAM
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1V1 MINICAM
1990
Population

Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

5293

6100

6874

7618

8122

8484

8703

8623

8430

8126

7621

7137

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

20.7
na

27.4
na

38.1
na

52.8
na

80.2
na

117.3
na

164.2
na

226.6
na

294.1
na

366.9
na

445.1
na

531.2
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
45
121
52
35
0
253

0
54
121
61
51
0
286

0
64
129
75
76
0
344

0
75
146
96
112
0
429

0
87
152
110
161
0
510

0
96
177
117
218
0
607

0
101
221
116
283
0
721

0
78
256
136
338
0
808

0
63
289
156
387
0
894

0
55
318
175
429
0
978

0
50
334
176
459
0
1019

0
46
350
177
488
0
1061

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

88
131
70
24
0

108
130
82
24
5

130
137
118
30
11

153
152
179
41
16

206
147
223
60
23

250
167
259
81
30

284
214
287
102
37

249
259
343
101
48

223
299
387
105
54

205
333
417
116
54

192
351
408
126
52

179
369
399
135
50

24
336

24
374

27
453

31
573

39
698

51
838

68
992

91
1091

112
1179

131
1255

146
1274

162
1293

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.1
0.1
0.1

1.1
1.4
0.9

2.3
2.8
1.9

3.7
4.2
3.3

5.7
5.7
5.4

7.9
7.3
7.9

10.5
9.2
10.5

13.1
11.7
13.8

15.5
14.5
17.5

17.6
17.5
21.4

19.6
21.0
25.5

21.5
24.5
29.6

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

161.0

263.6

386.8

528.1

685.7

854.0

1027.3

1203.4

1376.1

1540.2

1472
3209
0
4173
4310
13164

1466
3348
3
4214
4132
13164

1474
3603
6
4140
3941
13164

1495
3974
8
3952
3735
13164

1483
4374
10
3628
3669
13164

1442
4690
11
3372
3648
13164

1373
4923
12
3184
3673
13164

1212
4749
22
3515
3666
13164

1055
4493
21
3904
3690
13164

903
4155
10
4349
3747
13164

791
3951
6
4496
3920
13164

679
3748
3
4643
4093
13164

5.99
1.11

6.90
1.07

8.08
1.08

9.81
1.54

11.74
1.56

13.70
1.27

15.80
0.74

16.62
0.52

17.37
0.16

18.06
-0.36

18.20
-1.37

18.36
-2.37

7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38

7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40

9.16
355
8.0
74.2
791
31
43

11.35
405
9.3
79.5
337
43
48

13.29
462
10.8
79.6
369
61
66

14.97
523
12.6
72.7
482
77
99

16.53
567
14.3
58.9
566
89
119

17.14
585
14.8
41.5
654
97
127

17.53
599
15.2
31.4
659
106
113

17.70
611
15.3
28.6
654
114
88

16.83
625
16.0
28.5
639
119
84

15.98
640
16.7
28.5
614
115
95

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 74 of 241

A1V1 MINICAM

Page 75 of 241

A1V1 MINICAM
OECD90 - A1V1 MINICAM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

838

908

965

1007

1024

1066

1081

1084

1090

1098

1105

1112

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

16.3
na

20.5
na

25.6
na

31.6
na

34.5
na

44.7
na

53.6
na

63.3
na

74.4
na

86.7
na

102.2
na

119.1
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
10
72
27
22
0
130

0
12
70
35
27
0
144

0
12
69
44
33
0
159

0
11
69
54
41
0
175

0
11
63
54
44
0
173

0
11
55
53
53
0
173

0
12
59
49
61
0
181

0
9
61
54
64
0
188

0
7
64
60
67
0
198

0
7
68
67
70
0
211

0
7
72
69
74
0
221

0
7
75
71
79
0
231

40
76
34
20
0

44
75
45
15
2

43
73
63
13
3

36
70
90
13
4

39
63
91
14
4

48
50
92
14
5

54
52
88
15
6

51
52
95
13
7

48
56
103
14
8

42
62
109
15
8

37
68
110
17
7

32
74
111
19
7

12
182

11
192

10
206

10
223

10
221

11
219

12
226

14
234

16
243

18
254

21
261

24
268

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.1
0.0

0.5
0.8
0.5

0.9
1.6
1.0

1.3
2.3
1.7

1.5
2.6
2.2

2.2
3.4
3.6

2.7
3.9
4.5

3.2
4.4
5.4

3.7
5.0
6.4

4.1
5.6
7.5

4.5
6.2
8.5

4.9
6.9
9.6

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

63.8

100.7

138.7

176.2

213.5

251.2

289.1

326.5

363.1

398.6

408
796
0
921
998
3123

410
820
3
931
959
3123

412
867
5
922
917
3123

414
937
5
894
872
3123

409
972
6
870
866
3123

386
1062
8
812
856
3123

359
1100
9
792
862
3123

313
1064
13
873
861
3123

273
1019
12
951
867
3123

240
967
9
1026
880
3123

211
932
6
1053
921
3123

182
896
3
1080
962
3123

2.83
0.00

3.20
0.00

3.41
0.13

3.58
0.24

3.55
0.24

3.56
0.15

3.72
0.03

3.78
0.01

3.86
-0.08

3.94
-0.23

3.99
-0.39

4.04
-0.55

2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
23

3.20
74
2.6
17.0
58
13
23

3.54
84
2.8
12.5
110
13
14

3.82
97
3.0
6.2
108
11
5

3.79
104
3.2
5.4
115
9
6

3.71
127
3.7
5.0
118
8
7

3.75
145
4.0
5.2
122
9
9

3.79
163
4.1
5.1
123
10
11

3.78
174
4.1
5.2
123
12
13

3.71
179
4.2
5.5
124
13
16

3.60
182
4.4
5.9
125
14
18

3.49
185
4.5
6.2
125
16
20

Population

Million

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 76 of 241

A1V1 MINICAM
REF - A1V1 MINICAM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

428

425

426

433

434

431

423

408

392

374

357

340

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.1
na

1.1
na

1.4
na

2.1
na

3.5
na

5.1
na

6.9
na

10.0
na

13.6
na

17.7
na

21.8
na

26.3
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
13
18
19
6
0
56

0
10
11
14
8
0
44

0
8
8
13
11
0
41

0
7
9
15
17
0
49

0
7
9
17
21
0
54

0
6
9
16
25
0
57

0
6
10
14
28
0
58

0
4
10
15
30
0
59

0
3
10
16
31
0
61

0
3
11
17
33
0
64

0
3
11
16
33
0
63

0
2
11
15
34
0
62

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

18
20
26
3
0

17
13
20
4
1

17
10
21
6
1

19
11
29
8
2

27
7
32
10
2

32
6
33
10
3

34
8
31
11
3

26
10
32
9
4

21
12
34
8
4

18
13
34
9
4

18
13
32
9
4

17
13
29
9
4

3
70

3
57

3
58

4
73

5
83

6
90

8
93

9
91

11
89

12
90

13
87

14
85

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.2

0.4
0.3
0.5

0.5
0.4
0.7

0.8
0.5
1.0

1.1
0.6
1.3

1.4
0.6
1.6

1.7
0.7
2.0

1.9
0.8
2.3

2.1
0.9
2.6

2.3
1.1
2.9

2.5
1.2
3.3

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

20.1

30.3

42.7

56.6

71.0

84.9

98.2

110.7

121.7

130.6

284
395
0
1007
691
2377

294
410
0
1016
657
2377

305
454
0
996
623
2377

317
527
1
945
587
2377

321
612
1
866
577
2377

317
678
1
808
574
2377

304
725
0
769
579
2377

263
671
0
865
579
2377

221
602
0
970
584
2377

180
517
0
1086
594
2377

157
491
0
1104
625
2377

134
465
0
1122
657
2377

1.30
0.00

0.91
0.00

0.87
0.03

1.05
0.08

1.22
0.12

1.33
0.12

1.36
0.07

1.26
0.11

1.20
0.09

1.18
0.03

1.16
-0.16

1.15
-0.35

1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8

0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6

0.91
48
0.7
10.2
8
5
8

1.13
64
0.9
10.4
19
8
10

1.34
78
1.1
11.8
29
14
14

1.44
89
1.4
11.2
31
20
18

1.43
98
1.6
8.6
32
21
21

1.37
99
1.6
4.6
33
22
19

1.29
101
1.5
2.3
33
23
15

1.20
106
1.5
1.8
34
24
14

1.00
113
1.5
1.9
33
25
10

0.80
120
1.6
2.1
31
24
11

Population

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 77 of 241

A1V1 MINICAM
ASIA - A1V1 MINICAM
Population

1990
Million

2790

2000
3226

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

3608

3937

4115

4210

4219

4062

3852

3589

3245

2919

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.4
na

3.1
na

6.5
na

11.7
na

23.9
na

40.4
na

61.1
na

86.2
na

112.1
na

138.8
na

165.9
na

195.4
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
20
14
2
4
0
40

0
29
19
5
10
0
62

0
39
25
9
22
0
95

0
51
35
13
39
0
138

0
60
44
18
64
0
186

0
66
57
21
93
0
237

0
68
74
23
124
0
290

0
52
86
29
149
0
316

0
41
96
33
169
0
339

0
35
104
37
184
0
359

0
31
106
36
192
0
364

0
27
108
35
200
0
370

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

26
16
3
1
0

42
20
8
4
2

62
27
20
8
5

87
37
38
14
8

116
42
59
25
12

137
54
79
37
16

149
73
99
50
19

122
92
121
49
25

102
105
135
50
27

92
112
141
53
27

85
114
132
55
25

77
115
124
57
24

3
49

4
79

5
126

6
190

10
264

16
339

24
415

35
443

45
464

53
477

59
470

65
462

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.2
0.1

1.0
0.5
0.2

1.6
0.8
0.5

2.7
1.2
1.0

4.0
1.7
1.7

5.4
2.3
2.6

6.7
3.2
3.8

7.8
4.1
5.0

8.8
5.2
6.4

9.6
6.3
7.7

10.5
7.5
9.1

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

41.8

75.2

120.0

175.5

240.1

308.4

375.7

442.0

505.6

565.3

389
508
0
1168
664
2729

400
524
0
1144
632
2699

410
555
1
1102
601
2669

420
603
2
1044
568
2638

424
653
3
990
559
2628

419
694
3
952
557
2624

407
726
3
929
563
2627

365
719
6
973
562
2625

321
702
6
1034
567
2630

276
674
2
1113
577
2642

243
649
1
1172
607
2672

211
624
-1
1231
637
2702

1.15
0.37

1.78
0.26

2.58
0.20

3.64
0.27

4.77
0.28

5.80
0.25

6.72
0.16

6.69
0.10

6.66
0.03

6.62
-0.06

6.39
-0.23

6.17
-0.39

1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4

2.03
125
2.6
25.3
5
5
7

2.77
134
2.9
34.8
18
8
12

3.90
145
3.2
45.1
45
15
19

5.05
161
3.7
44.1
92
23
28

6.04
176
4.2
37.4
153
30
42

6.87
189
4.7
25.1
224
35
50

6.79
180
4.9
16.4
292
39
55

6.68
174
4.9
11.3
292
43
48

6.56
173
5.0
9.8
285
46
35

6.17
174
5.2
9.5
275
48
33

5.78
174
5.4
9.1
262
46
37

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 78 of 241

A1V1 MINICAM
ALM - A1V1 MINICAM
Population

1990
Million

1236

2000
1541

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1876

2241

2531

2778

2980

3068

3096

3064

2913

2766

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.9
na

2.8
na

4.6
na

7.4
na

15.4
na

27.2
na

42.5
na

67.0
na

94.1
na

123.7
na

155.2
na

190.4
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
2
17
5
3
0
27

0
3
21
6
6
0
35

0
4
26
9
9
0
49

0
6
33
13
15
0
67

0
9
40
21
29
0
99

0
12
56
26
47
0
141

0
15
78
29
70
0
192

0
13
99
38
96
0
245

0
11
118
46
120
0
296

0
11
136
54
143
0
344

0
10
146
55
159
0
371

0
10
156
56
176
0
399

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

4
20
7
0
0

5
22
9
2
1

8
27
14
4
1

11
34
23
5
2

22
41
40
12
4

34
57
55
19
6

48
82
70
27
9

50
105
95
29
12

52
127
116
34
15

53
146
133
40
15

52
156
134
45
15

52
166
136
50
15

5
35

6
45

8
62

11
86

15
133

19
190

24
258

33
324

40
383

47
434

53
456

60
478

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.2
0.1

0.1
0.5
0.2

0.2
0.8
0.4

0.4
1.2
0.8

0.7
1.7
1.2

1.1
2.3
1.8

1.6
3.3
2.7

2.1
4.5
3.8

2.6
5.8
5.0

3.1
7.4
6.3

3.7
8.9
7.7

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

35.2

57.4

85.4

119.8

161.1

209.5

264.3

324.3

385.8

445.7

391
1510
0
3641
1957
7499

363
1594
0
3591
1884
7432

347
1727
0
3480
1800
7354

344
1906
0
3308
1707
7266

334
2102
0
3121
1674
7231

320
2257
0
2975
1661
7213

303
2373
0
2868
1668
7212

272
2296
3
2970
1664
7204

240
2170
3
3128
1673
7213

207
1996
0
3341
1695
7240

180
1880
0
3487
1766
7313

152
1763
0
3633
1837
7385

0.72
0.73

1.01
0.82

1.22
0.72

1.54
0.95

2.20
0.91

3.02
0.76

4.00
0.48

4.88
0.31

5.66
0.12

6.32
-0.09

6.65
-0.58

7.00
-1.08

1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
3

1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5

1.94
89
1.6
13.7
15
5
10

2.49
99
2.1
14.8
39
9
14

3.11
118
2.7
15.3
81
14
19

3.77
130
3.3
16.1
139
19
32

4.48
134
4.0
17.0
184
23
40

5.19
144
4.3
12.4
205
26
42

5.77
150
4.5
9.6
210
28
37

6.23
154
4.7
8.4
210
30
23

6.07
157
4.9
8.3
206
31
24

5.92
160
5.2
8.1
196
30
26

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 79 of 241

A1V2 MINICAM
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1V2 MINICAM
1990
Population

Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

5293

5953

6597

7228

7725

8113

8393

8413

8359

8229

8001

7780

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

20.7
na

27.4
na

36.7
na

48.4
na

67.6
na

91.5
na

120.2
na

157.1
na

197.2
na

240.8
na

287.8
na

339.7
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
45
121
52
35
0
253

0
56
123
62
52
0
293

0
68
130
77
80
0
355

0
81
143
97
117
0
438

0
98
145
108
163
0
513

0
110
164
113
214
0
602

0
119
201
112
272
0
705

0
97
232
129
325
0
783

0
82
262
148
374
0
866

0
75
292
168
420
0
955

0
72
315
170
460
0
1016

0
68
337
172
501
0
1078

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

88
131
70
24
0

112
132
84
25
6

137
139
122
32
11

163
151
183
44
17

220
140
221
62
24

264
154
252
80
30

295
195
277
98
37

258
236
328
98
49

232
273
370
104
54

217
308
405
115
54

210
332
403
128
53

203
356
401
140
51

24
336

24
384

27
468

31
589

39
705

51
831

66
968

89
1057

110
1144

129
1227

148
1273

167
1318

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.1
0.1
0.1

1.2
1.5
0.9

2.4
2.8
2.0

3.9
4.3
3.4

6.0
5.7
5.5

8.4
7.2
7.9

11.1
8.9
10.5

13.8
11.2
13.7

16.2
13.7
17.2

18.5
16.6
21.0

20.6
19.8
25.0

22.7
23.1
29.0

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

161.4

264.6

388.4

529.0

683.3

846.2

1012.7

1181.9

1349.4

1511.4

1472
3209
0
4173
4310
13164

1456
3344
2
4215
4148
13164

1457
3588
5
4142
3971
13164

1477
3941
11
3957
3779
13164

1472
4316
14
3630
3732
13164

1439
4609
18
3376
3723
13164

1378
4820
20
3193
3753
13164

1226
4651
31
3517
3739
13164

1081
4417
31
3876
3758
13164

943
4119
20
4272
3810
13164

847
3975
15
4349
3978
13164

752
3832
10
4425
4145
13164

5.99
1.11

6.90
1.07

8.18
1.05

9.91
1.51

11.81
1.52

13.54
1.24

15.39
0.71

15.95
0.53

16.62
0.18

17.39
-0.35

17.79
-1.32

18.22
-2.29

7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38

7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40

9.23
353
8.0
76.3
791
31
43

11.42
400
9.2
82.8
337
43
48

13.34
453
10.7
86.0
369
61
66

14.78
504
12.4
81.7
482
77
99

16.10
541
14.0
69.9
566
89
119

16.49
545
14.6
49.2
654
97
127

16.80
550
15.0
35.3
659
106
113

17.04
556
15.3
28.2
654
114
88

16.47
565
16.2
27.0
639
119
84

15.93
574
17.2
25.7
614
115
95

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 80 of 241

A1V2 MINICAM

Page 81 of 241

A1V2 MINICAM
OECD90 - A1V2 MINICAM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

838

870

893

906

902

879

851

806

763

722

683

646

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

16.3
na

20.5
na

24.3
na

27.8
na

28.7
na

31.5
na

33.5
na

35.7
na

37.9
na

40.2
na

42.6
na

45.1
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
10
72
27
22
0
130

0
12
71
35
27
0
145

0
12
68
42
33
0
155

0
11
63
48
38
0
160

0
10
57
48
40
0
155

0
10
47
43
45
0
145

0
10
49
39
49
0
146

0
8
49
41
49
0
147

0
6
49
44
50
0
149

0
6
50
48
50
0
153

0
5
50
47
51
0
152

0
5
50
46
51
0
152

40
76
34
20
0

44
75
45
15
2

43
71
61
13
3

34
65
81
12
4

36
57
80
12
4

41
43
75
12
5

43
44
69
11
5

38
43
72
10
6

35
43
75
10
6

32
44
77
10
6

32
44
74
11
5

32
44
71
12
5

12
182

11
193

10
201

10
206

10
199

10
185

11
184

12
182

14
182

15
184

16
182

18
181

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.1
0.0

0.5
0.8
0.5

0.9
1.6
1.0

1.3
2.2
1.7

1.5
2.5
2.1

2.1
3.3
3.2

2.5
3.7
4.0

2.9
4.1
4.7

3.2
4.6
5.4

3.6
5.0
6.2

3.9
5.4
6.9

4.2
5.9
7.7

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

63.3

98.2

133.0

165.8

196.7

226.5

255.3

282.7

308.2

331.7

408
796
0
921
998
3123

407
820
2
931
963
3123

408
866
3
922
924
3123

410
933
3
894
883
3123

406
966
3
869
878
3123

386
1049
5
811
873
3123

362
1082
5
792
881
3123

318
1048
7
871
878
3123

281
1008
7
943
883
3123

251
962
5
1009
895
3123

226
936
4
1022
935
3123

201
911
2
1035
974
3123

2.83
0.00

3.20
0.00

3.32
0.13

3.29
0.24

3.19
0.23

3.00
0.14

3.00
0.03

2.92
0.02

2.88
-0.06

2.87
-0.21

2.82
-0.37

2.78
-0.52

2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
23

3.20
74
2.6
17.0
58
13
23

3.44
82
2.8
13.1
110
13
14

3.53
92
3.0
7.9
108
11
5

3.42
96
3.2
6.5
115
9
6

3.14
110
3.6
5.5
118
8
7

3.03
120
3.9
4.8
122
9
9

2.94
127
4.0
4.3
123
10
11

2.82
135
4.1
4.1
123
12
13

2.65
142
4.2
4.2
124
13
16

2.45
146
4.4
4.3
125
14
18

2.26
151
4.6
4.4
125
16
20

Population

Million

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 82 of 241

A1V2 MINICAM
REF - A1V2 MINICAM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

428

446

460

470

466

454

434

408

380

352

326

301

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.1
na

1.1
na

1.4
na

2.2
na

3.4
na

4.6
na

5.9
na

7.2
na

8.4
na

9.4
na

10.7
na

12.0
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
13
18
19
6
0
56

0
11
13
16
9
0
48

0
10
11
16
15
0
52

0
10
13
21
24
0
67

0
10
13
23
29
0
75

0
10
13
23
35
0
80

0
9
14
21
40
0
84

0
7
14
21
41
0
83

0
5
14
22
40
0
81

0
4
13
22
39
0
78

0
4
13
20
40
0
77

0
3
13
19
40
0
75

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

18
20
26
3
0

19
15
22
4
1

22
13
26
7
2

26
15
40
11
3

37
10
45
14
3

43
8
46
15
4

44
10
44
15
5

36
11
45
13
5

29
13
45
11
5

22
14
43
11
4

18
15
39
11
4

13
16
36
11
3

3
70

3
64

3
73

4
99

5
113

7
122

9
127

11
122

12
115

13
107

14
100

15
94

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.3

0.4
0.3
0.5

0.7
0.5
0.8

1.0
0.6
1.3

1.4
0.7
1.7

1.8
0.7
2.2

2.2
0.9
2.6

2.5
1.0
3.1

2.8
1.1
3.5

3.0
1.3
3.9

3.2
1.4
4.3

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

20.8

33.2

49.0

67.0

85.7

103.7

120.2

134.6

146.2

154.8

284
395
0
1007
691
2377

291
410
0
1016
660
2377

300
452
1
996
628
2377

312
521
3
946
595
2377

318
601
5
867
588
2377

315
662
6
808
587
2377

304
704
6
770
593
2377

265
652
7
863
591
2377

227
590
6
960
595
2377

189
519
2
1063
605
2377

170
505
1
1066
635
2377

152
491
-1
1069
666
2377

1.30
0.00

0.91
0.00

1.01
0.03

1.36
0.08

1.61
0.12

1.75
0.12

1.80
0.06

1.64
0.10

1.48
0.08

1.30
0.01

1.18
-0.17

1.07
-0.35

1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8

0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6

1.04
49
0.7
11.5
8
5
8

1.44
67
0.9
12.6
19
8
10

1.73
81
1.1
14.8
29
14
14

1.87
91
1.4
14.8
31
20
18

1.86
97
1.6
12.6
32
21
21

1.74
101
1.6
7.5
33
22
19

1.56
99
1.5
4.2
33
23
15

1.31
93
1.5
2.7
34
24
14

1.01
91
1.6
2.5
33
25
10

0.72
90
1.7
2.2
31
24
11

Population

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 83 of 241

A1V2 MINICAM
ASIA - A1V2 MINICAM
Population

1990
Million

2790

2000
3165

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

3517

3847

4078

4237

4322

4242

4123

3965

3779

3597

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.4
na

3.1
na

6.3
na

11.1
na

20.7
na

32.7
na

46.9
na

63.7
na

81.5
na

100.2
na

119.0
na

139.5
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
20
14
2
4
0
40

0
30
19
5
11
0
64

0
42
25
9
22
0
98

0
55
34
13
40
0
142

0
70
42
17
64
0
192

0
81
53
19
91
0
244

0
88
69
21
122
0
299

0
71
80
27
152
0
330

0
60
91
32
179
0
362

0
55
101
38
203
0
397

0
52
108
38
219
0
417

0
49
114
39
236
0
438

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

26
16
3
1
0

43
20
8
4
2

65
27
20
8
5

91
37
37
14
9

125
41
57
25
13

151
51
77
36
16

168
67
96
48
20

141
86
121
49
27

124
102
140
53
31

116
113
153
58
31

112
119
150
63
30

107
125
146
68
29

3
49

4
81

5
130

6
195

10
270

15
346

23
422

35
460

46
495

56
527

65
538

74
549

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.2
0.1

1.0
0.5
0.2

1.7
0.8
0.5

2.9
1.2
1.0

4.3
1.6
1.7

5.8
2.2
2.5

7.3
3.0
3.7

8.6
4.0
5.0

9.9
5.0
6.4

11.0
6.2
7.9

12.1
7.3
9.4

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

42.0

75.8

121.5

178.6

245.6

317.0

388.5

460.9

532.9

603.2

389
508
0
1168
664
2729

397
523
0
1146
635
2702

406
553
1
1108
606
2674

415
598
4
1052
575
2645

420
642
6
1001
569
2638

417
678
8
964
569
2636

406
706
9
943
575
2639

366
698
16
983
573
2637

326
682
18
1038
577
2641

286
658
13
1108
586
2652

259
640
11
1156
615
2681

232
622
9
1204
644
2710

1.15
0.37

1.78
0.26

2.61
0.19

3.70
0.26

4.90
0.28

5.99
0.25

6.99
0.16

7.03
0.10

7.15
0.03

7.35
-0.06

7.33
-0.21

7.31
-0.37

1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4

2.03
125
2.6
25.3
5
5
7

2.80
133
2.9
34.9
18
8
12

3.96
144
3.2
44.6
45
15
19

5.18
160
3.7
46.3
92
23
28

6.24
174
4.2
42.4
153
30
42

7.15
187
4.6
32.7
224
35
50

7.13
174
4.8
20.9
292
39
55

7.18
169
4.9
13.2
292
43
48

7.30
171
5.0
9.6
285
46
35

7.12
171
5.3
9.0
275
48
33

6.94
172
5.5
8.4
262
46
37

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 84 of 241

A1V2 MINICAM
ALM - A1V2 MINICAM
Population

1990
Million

1236

2000
1472

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1727

2004

2282

2543

2785

2957

3092

3190

3213

3236

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.9
na

2.8
na

4.6
na

7.4
na

13.9
na

22.8
na

33.9
na

50.5
na

69.5
na

91.0
na

115.5
na

143.1
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
2
17
5
3
0
27

0
3
21
7
6
0
36

0
4
26
10
10
0
50

0
6
33
15
15
0
69

0
8
39
22
28
0
96

0
10
51
27
43
0
132

0
12
70
31
62
0
175

0
11
89
40
83
0
223

0
10
109
50
106
0
274

0
10
128
61
128
0
327

0
11
145
64
151
0
370

0
11
161
68
174
0
413

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

4
20
7
0
0

6
22
9
2
1

8
27
15
4
1

11
34
25
6
2

20
40
40
11
4

30
53
54
17
5

40
74
67
23
7

42
95
90
26
10

44
116
111
30
12

46
137
132
36
14

48
154
140
43
14

51
171
148
50
14

5
35

6
46

8
64

11
89

14
129

18
178

23
235

30
293

37
351

44
409

52
452

59
494

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.2
0.1

0.1
0.5
0.2

0.2
0.8
0.4

0.4
1.2
0.8

0.7
1.7
1.3

1.0
2.3
1.8

1.4
3.2
2.7

1.8
4.2
3.7

2.3
5.4
4.9

2.8
6.9
6.3

3.2
8.5
7.6

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

35.2

57.4

84.9

117.5

155.4

199.0

248.6

303.8

362.1

421.6

391
1510
0
3641
1957
7499

360
1591
0
3597
1890
7438

343
1718
0
3494
1813
7367

340
1890
0
3329
1726
7285

333
2074
0
3150
1702
7258

321
2220
0
3010
1694
7246

306
2327
0
2911
1704
7248

277
2253
0
3011
1697
7238

247
2137
0
3158
1704
7246

216
1980
0
3351
1724
7271

192
1894
0
3464
1793
7342

168
1808
0
3576
1861
7413

0.72
0.73

1.01
0.82

1.23
0.71

1.56
0.93

2.11
0.89

2.79
0.73

3.60
0.46

4.36
0.31

5.12
0.13

5.88
-0.09

6.46
-0.57

7.07
-1.05

1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
3

1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5

1.94
89
1.6
13.8
15
5
10

2.49
98
2.1
14.8
39
9
14

3.00
116
2.7
15.5
81
14
19

3.52
129
3.3
16.1
139
19
32

4.06
137
3.9
16.7
184
23
40

4.67
142
4.2
13.5
205
26
42

5.24
147
4.4
10.8
210
28
37

5.78
151
4.6
8.6
210
30
23

5.88
156
5.0
8.2
206
31
24

6.02
162
5.4
7.7
196
30
26

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 85 of 241

A1T AIM
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1T AIM
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Population

5262

6117

6805

7493

8182

8439

8704

8538

8375

8030

7528

7056

20.9

26.6

37.7

56.3

89.2

127.4

182.0

235.8

305.5

378.2

447.3

529.0

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

50
36
111
51
38

48
36
118
58
48

34
46
130
84
63

27
59
148
113
82

18
76
177
146
115

0
76
205
167
180

0
76
239
191
282

0
58
260
200
370

0
45
283
210
484

0
35
299
219
573

0
29
305
227
614

0
24
311
235
657

285

307

356

430

532

647

787

901

1032

1128

1176

1226

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

93
143
73
6
50

89
158
99
11
48

116
176
142
17
38

142
186
190
27
47

174
183
244
43
81

159
168
284
68
120

146
158
336
116
179

112
141
344
114
215

86
126
355
111
258

68
116
366
110
289

57
110
378
111
302

48
104
390
112
315

10
376

11
416

14
502

20
611

34
758

70
868

151
1086

249
1174

409
1345

550
1500

603
1561

663
1632

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.1
0.1
0.1

1.0
1.6
1.0

2.0
3.3
2.2

3.3
5.1
3.8

4.9
7.0
6.0

6.3
8.5
8.4

8.1
10.4
11.8

9.1
11.6
14.7

10.2
13.0
18.3

11.1
14.3
22.1

11.7
15.4
25.7

12.4
16.6
29.9

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

164.2

270.9

389.2

508.3

623.0

731.8

832.4

927.0

1018.2

1106.4

1437
3290
0
4249
3966
12942

1486
3289
0
4122
4046
12942

1548
3481
0
3965
3948
12942

1573
3846
66
3801
3655
12942

1533
4193
328
3709
3179
12942

1434
4145
494
3786
3033
12942

1341
4098
745
3864
2894
12942

1251
4062
813
3898
2908
12942

1167
4027
888
3932
2922
12942

1076
3964
949
3980
2966
12942

981
3875
993
4042
3039
12942

895
3788
1039
4106
3114
12942

8.37
1.44
9.81
393
7.4
87.4
791
31
43
1030
163
40

9.79
1.73
11.52
466
7.8
100.9
337
43
48
1160
188
49

11.28
0.87
12.15
528
7.6
91.5
369
61
66
1161
213
52

11.32
0.34
11.67
509
7.1
69.3
482
77
99
1202
209
50

11.43
-0.15
11.28
492
6.7
64.3
566
89
119
1244
206
49

10.49
0.00
10.49
442
6.2
46.9
654
97
127
1294
195
47

9.66
-0.03
9.63
397
5.7
35.7
659
106
113
1347
186
45

9.14
0.15
9.29
358
5.4
30.7
654
114
88
1402
167
43

8.85
0.12
8.97
323
5.1
29.0
639
119
84
1460
138
41

8.58
0.08
8.66
291
4.8
27.4
614
115
95
1520
114
40

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 86 of 241

5.99
1.11
7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38
879
139
31

6.90
1.07
7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40
877
141
32

A1T AIM

Page 87 of 241

A1T AIM
OECD90 - A1T AIM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

859

919

960

1002

1043

1062

1081

1086

1091

1097

1103

1110

16.4

20.4

25.2

31.0

38.1

45.5

54.3

64.2

76.0

89.3

104.0

121.1

6
10
64
25
22

1
10
72
32
27

0
10
68
38
30

0
10
69
44
33

0
10
70
47
37

0
9
71
45
46

0
8
72
43
58

0
6
72
40
72

0
5
72
38
90

0
4
73
36
105

0
3
75
36
115

0
2
76
35
126

127

142

146

156

165

173

181

194

207

219

229

239

41
76
34
5
6

36
87
51
8
1

35
82
59
11
0

31
80
65
14
3

27
68
68
18
11

26
52
68
20
19

24
40
67
22
34

18
31
62
21
41

13
24
58
20
49

10
22
55
19
55

8
22
54
20
58

7
23
52
20
60

6
167

6
189

7
194

9
203

13
205

21
205

32
220

50
223

77
242

102
264

114
276

128
291

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.1
0.0

0.4
0.9
0.5

0.8
1.7
1.0

1.1
2.6
1.6

1.4
3.3
2.3

1.6
3.8
2.9

1.9
4.4
3.7

2.1
4.7
4.2

2.3
5.0
4.8

2.4
5.2
5.4

2.5
5.5
6.0

2.6
5.7
6.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

61.4

91.8

120.4

146.6

171.0

192.7

211.3

227.4

242.2

256.1

410
787
0
1056
886
3140

402
762
0
1066
910
3140

394
764
0
1079
903
3140

377
792
19
1099
853
3140

353
827
67
1127
765
3140

327
813
102
1156
731
3140

302
799
156
1185
697
3140

281
794
165
1196
702
3140

261
790
174
1208
706
3140

237
775
182
1229
715
3140

208
750
189
1261
727
3140

183
727
195
1294
740
3140

3.14
-0.07
3.06
72
2.5
9.9
110
13
14
170
34
12

3.05
-0.05
3.00
71
2.5
6.9
108
11
5
178
33
12

2.82
-0.09
2.72
70
2.4
6.4
115
9
6
192
31
9

2.61
-0.08
2.53
61
2.2
6.3
118
8
7
199
26
7

2.41
-0.07
2.34
53
2.0
6.2
122
9
9
206
21
6

2.04
-0.03
2.01
50
1.9
5.9
123
10
11
210
14
6

1.72
-0.03
1.70
47
1.7
5.6
123
12
13
215
8
6

1.55
-0.03
1.52
44
1.5
5.3
124
13
16
222
5
5

1.48
-0.04
1.44
41
1.4
4.9
125
14
18
234
4
5

1.41
-0.07
1.34
39
1.3
4.6
125
16
20
245
3
5

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 88 of 241

2.83
0.00
2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
23
179
42
13

3.20
0.00
3.20
74
2.6
17.0
58
13
23
161
36
12

A1T AIM
REF - A1T AIM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

413

419

424

430

435

429

423

406

391

374

356

339

1.1

0.8

1.5

2.9

5.3

8.1

12.4

15.6

19.6

24.0

28.6

34.1

2
9
19
19
8

4
4
10
13
9

0
4
8
18
10

0
5
7
20
11

0
5
7
22
12

0
5
8
25
18

0
4
9
28
26

0
3
9
26
31

0
2
10
24
37

0
2
10
22
40

0
2
11
21
40

0
1
11
20
39

58

40

39

42

46

56

67

70

74

75

73

72

18
22
26
1
2

8
13
22
2
4

8
10
27
3
0

9
8
29
4
1

10
7
30
5
3

10
7
32
7
5

10
7
34
10
8

7
6
31
9
10

5
5
27
8
12

4
5
26
8
13

4
4
25
9
13

4
4
25
10
14

1
71

1
51

1
50

2
52

2
57

6
66

14
83

21
83

31
89

37
93

34
91

32
90

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.2
0.3

0.2
0.3
0.5

0.3
0.4
0.8

0.4
0.5
1.1

0.5
0.5
1.4

0.6
0.6
1.7

0.7
0.7
2.0

0.7
0.7
2.3

0.8
0.8
2.6

0.8
0.8
2.8

0.9
0.9
3.1

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

20.3

29.6

39.0

48.4

57.6

66.1

73.1

79.1

84.9

90.7

279
346
0
960
720
2305

284
356
0
961
703
2305

295
398
0
954
657
2305

299
462
0
960
585
2305

308
550
6
953
488
2305

300
565
11
958
466
2305

292
581
24
963
445
2305

273
577
30
974
448
2305

255
574
38
985
451
2305

235
566
46
997
459
2305

215
553
52
1009
473
2305

196
541
59
1021
488
2305

0.92
0.02
0.94
59
0.6
12.2
8
5
8
39
13
3

0.93
-0.01
0.92
65
0.6
10.8
19
8
10
40
11
3

0.92
0.03
0.95
68
0.7
7.5
29
14
14
43
10
3

0.93
0.00
0.93
59
0.7
4.3
31
20
18
46
10
3

0.94
-0.01
0.93
51
0.6
2.4
32
21
21
49
9
2

0.78
-0.02
0.76
49
0.6
2.0
33
22
19
50
7
2

0.66
-0.03
0.63
48
0.5
1.7
33
23
15
51
6
2

0.61
-0.03
0.58
45
0.5
1.6
34
24
14
52
5
1

0.61
-0.03
0.58
43
0.4
1.6
33
25
10
54
4
1

0.60
-0.03
0.58
41
0.4
1.6
31
24
11
55
4
1

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 89 of 241

1.30
0.00
1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8
69
16
5

0.91
0.00
0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6
41
13
3

A1T AIM
ASIA - A1T AIM
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2798

3261

3556

3851

4147

4183

4220

4016

3822

3541

3194

2882

1.5

2.7

5.7

12.2

26.2

40.6

62.9

85.5

116.4

147.7

174.9

207.0

28
15
11
2
5

24
20
16
4
7

17
29
23
8
13

11
39
29
16
22

3
53
41
29
40

0
52
49
36
67

0
51
59
45
111

0
39
67
53
148

0
31
77
63
197

0
24
83
73
236

0
20
83
82
254

0
16
83
91
272

61

70

91

118

166

210

265

315

373

417

439

462

30
17
4
0
28

38
24
9
1
24

58
35
18
3
19

79
40
33
5
17

108
44
58
13
17

92
37
76
25
26

79
32
99
47
41

62
28
111
47
49

48
25
125
46
59

38
22
138
46
66

31
20
151
45
69

25
18
165
45
73

1
80

2
97

2
135

4
178

9
250

23
281

58
357

98
395

166
469

227
537

251
568

278
604

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.2
0.1

0.8
0.5
0.2

1.5
0.9
0.5

2.5
1.3
0.9

3.3
1.6
1.5

4.3
2.1
2.5

4.9
2.3
3.4

5.5
2.6
4.6

6.0
2.8
6.0

6.3
3.1
7.4

6.7
3.3
9.1

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

42.9

76.8

119.8

166.4

210.9

253.5

294.3

333.3

371.0

407.4

390
521
0
527
576
2014

408
523
0
490
593
2014

432
546
0
453
582
2014

448
584
21
420
540
2014

432
620
88
406
469
2014

401
618
123
419
446
2014

372
615
172
432
423
2014

349
611
189
437
426
2014

328
606
209
442
428
2014

307
599
224
448
435
2014

286
589
233
456
448
2014

267
580
242
464
462
2014

2.59
0.39
2.98
156
2.7
42.2
18
8
12
342
48
13

3.36
0.44
3.81
196
2.9
54.5
45
15
19
397
61
17

4.51
0.27
4.78
238
3.0
45.9
92
23
28
421
73
20

4.40
0.14
4.54
235
2.8
20.0
153
30
42
444
73
20

4.29
0.07
4.36
233
2.7
8.5
224
35
50
468
73
19

4.06
0.10
4.16
197
2.5
8.0
292
39
55
484
74
18

3.85
0.13
3.99
167
2.4
7.5
292
43
48
500
76
17

3.69
0.14
3.83
146
2.3
7.1
285
46
35
512
68
15

3.57
0.13
3.70
131
2.1
6.7
275
48
33
522
55
14

3.45
0.13
3.58
118
2.0
6.3
262
46
37
532
43
13

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 90 of 241

1.15
0.37
1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4
235
33
7

1.78
0.26
2.03
125
2.6
25.3
5
5
7
270
37
9

A1T AIM
ALM - A1T AIM
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1192

1519

1865

2211

2557

2761

2980

3024

3067

3013

2866

2727

1.9

2.7

5.3

10.3

19.6

32.1

52.4

69.8

93.0

117.2

139.8

166.8

14
1
17
4
4

18
2
21
8
6

17
3
31
19
11

16
5
43
33
17

15
9
59
48
26

0
10
76
60
47

0
12
99
75
87

0
9
111
80
118

0
7
124
84
159

0
6
133
87
191

0
5
137
88
205

0
4
141
89
220

40

55

80

115

156

206

274

321

377

417

435

454

5
27
9
0
14

7
34
18
0
18

14
48
38
1
19

22
58
64
3
27

29
63
88
6
50

31
71
109
15
69

33
79
135
37
96

26
75
140
37
115

20
72
145
37
138

16
67
147
37
154

14
63
148
36
161

12
59
148
36
168

2
57

2
80

3
124

5
179

9
246

21
316

47
427

80
472

135
545

184
606

203
625

225
648

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.3
0.1

0.2
0.7
0.4

0.3
1.3
0.9

0.6
1.9
1.7

0.9
2.5
2.6

1.2
3.3
3.9

1.5
4.0
5.1

1.7
4.7
6.6

1.9
5.5
8.1

2.1
6.1
9.5

1.7
6.7
12.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

39.6

72.7

110.1

146.9

183.5

219.5

253.8

287.1

320.1

352.1

357
1636
0
1706
1784
5483

392
1647
0
1605
1840
5483

426
1773
0
1478
1806
5483

449
2009
26
1322
1677
5483

441
2196
167
1223
1456
5483

406
2149
257
1253
1391
5483

374
2103
393
1284
1328
5483

348
2080
428
1291
1333
5483

323
2057
466
1297
1338
5483

297
2024
497
1305
1357
5483

272
1982
520
1316
1390
5483

248
1941
543
1327
1424
5483

1.71
1.11
2.82
106
1.5
20.2
15
5
10
479
68
12

2.45
1.35
3.79
133
1.7
25.7
39
9
14
545
84
17

3.02
0.66
3.69
152
1.5
28.8
81
14
19
506
99
20

3.39
0.28
3.67
154
1.4
35.8
139
19
32
513
101
21

3.80
-0.15
3.65
155
1.3
44.2
184
23
40
521
103
21

3.60
-0.05
3.55
145
1.2
28.0
205
26
42
550
100
21

3.42
-0.11
3.31
136
1.2
17.8
210
28
37
582
97
21

3.29
0.06
3.35
123
1.1
13.7
210
30
23
615
88
21

3.20
0.05
3.25
108
1.1
12.8
206
31
24
650
75
21

3.11
0.05
3.16
94
1.1
12.0
196
30
26
688
63
21

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 91 of 241

0.72
0.73
1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
3
396
48
7

1.01
0.82
1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5
404
55
8

A1T MESSAGE
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1T MESSAGE
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Population

5262

6117

6888

7617

8182

8531

8704

8667

8463

8125

7658

7056

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

20.9
25.7

26.8
33.4

36.8
45.7

57.0
67.2

91.3
98.7

135.4
139.0

187.1
186.4

254.1
246.8

322.9
313.2

393.2
382.0

469.6
456.6

550.0
535.0

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

38
42
111
41
35
8
275

25
60
125
48
48
12
317

20
66
157
66
66
18
393

16
71
193
83
100
33
495

10
72
246
107
153
48
634

7
46
300
135
209
61
757

5
31
344
155
275
83
893

0
27
357
180
349
108
1020

0
22
354
177
424
138
1115

0
15
346
159
483
179
1182

0
2
343
132
534
220
1231

0
1
311
100
589
268
1270

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

91
128
71
7
46

106
155
87
8
46

125
172
124
11
55

151
193
166
17
75

180
223
231
40
104

153
241
288
78
137

119
250
324
115
183

87
236
344
145
235

60
205
324
175
280

53
143
291
175
324

40
113
240
153
353

25
77
196
114
370

8
352

15
416

25
513

48
649

73
850

122
1018

222
1213

358
1407

544
1588

756
1743

985
1884

1239
2021

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.9
1.4
0.8

2.0
3.0
1.6

3.2
4.7
2.9

4.7
6.6
4.5

6.5
8.9
6.8

8.1
11.3
9.7

9.3
13.8
13.0

10.1
16.1
16.4

10.7
18.2
19.6

11.3
19.6
22.6

11.7
20.8
25.0

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

162.1

260.3

373.4

498.6

623.1

741.3

847.6

937.0

1008.4

1061.3

1459
3389
0
4296
3805
12949

1466
3404
0

1462
3429
0

1457
3446
74

1454
3458
158

1448
3478
288

1442
3498
418

1436
3525
492

1429
3552
566

1424
3568
581

1422
3572
538

1420
3576
495

4237
3842
12949

4173
3886
12949

4164
3807
12949

4164
3715
12949

4177
3558
12949

4190
3400
12949

4194
3301
12949

4199
3203
12949

4202
3173
12949

4203
3213
12949

4204
3253
12949

8.33
1.04
9.38
362
6.1
64.7
791
31
43
1003
164
39

10.00
0.26
10.26
415
6.1
59.9
337
43
48
1147
190
46

12.26
0.12
12.38
483
6.2
59.6
369
61
66
1362
212
56

12.60
0.05
12.65
495
6.2
46.6
482
77
99
1555
229
60

12.29
-0.02
12.26
500
6.1
40.2
566
89
119
1770
241
61

11.41
-0.03
11.38
459
6.0
34.4
654
97
127
1944
242
60

9.91
-0.03
9.87
404
5.7
30.1
659
106
113
2078
229
52

8.05
-0.03
8.02
359
5.6
25.2
654
114
88
2164
199
43

6.27
-0.01
6.26
317
5.5
23.3
639
119
84
2156
167
35

4.31
0.00
4.32
274
5.4
20.2
614
115
95
2077
128
28

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run

5.99
1.11
7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38
879
139
31

6.90
1.07
7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40
877
141
32

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data
Page 92 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1T run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1T run

A1T MESSAGE

Page 93 of 241

A1T MESSAGE
OECD90 - A1T MESSAGE

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

859

919

965

1007

1043

1069

1081

1084

1089

1098

1108

1110

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

16.4
14.1

20.6
17.8

25.6
22.1

31.6
27.4

38.7
33.7

46.8
40.8

55.7
48.6

65.7
57.4

77.2
67.6

90.8
79.7

106.6
93.6

124.3
109.4

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
13
66
22
22
1
124

0
13
69
28
29
1
139

0
6
74
33
36
3
152

0
3
73
34
44
6
160

0
1
72
35
55
7
171

0
1
70
35
65
10
180

0
0
66
32
74
13
185

0
0
65
27
83
17
193

0
0
62
21
95
22
201

0
0
61
19
104
29
212

0
0
60
15
112
38
225

0
0
55
12
118
48
233

38
72
33
6
6

36
83
45
7
9

36
81
57
8
11

32
72
70
10
17

25
63
79
22
21

11
55
78
43
24

4
46
76
56
31

3
39
66
64
37

2
30
59
67
41

1
23
56
58
45

1
20
45
45
52

1
14
34
28
55

4
159

6
186

10
202

15
214

20
230

27
238

44
257

65
275

98
297

143
325

194
356

245
377

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.8
0.4

0.7
1.6
0.8

1.1
2.4
1.4

1.4
3.1
2.1

1.7
3.8
2.9

1.7
4.3
3.6

1.8
4.8
4.4

1.8
5.2
5.0

1.8
5.5
5.6

1.8
5.7
6.2

1.8
5.9
6.6

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

62.9

95.6

126.4

153.0

174.5

192.9

208.6

221.9

233.0

241.2

381
760
0
1050
838
3029

380
763
0

377
771
0

376
774
11

375
776
24

372
787
44

368
797
63

364
818
74

359
839
86

356
849
88

356
847
81

355
846
75

1053
833
3029

1052
828
3029

1053
814
3029

1056
798
3029

1062
765
3029

1068
733
3029

1061
712
3029

1054
691
3029

1050
685
3029

1049
695
3029

1048
705
3029

3.31
0.04
3.35
71
2.4
8.3
110
13
14
183
38
14

3.18
0.02
3.20
68
2.4
2.1
108
11
5
190
38
13

2.96
0.00
2.96
66
2.4
0.6
115
9
6
184
33
13

2.38
-0.02
2.35
60
2.3
0.6
118
8
7
186
30
11

2.00
-0.04
1.96
56
2.3
0.0
122
9
9
202
27
9

1.71
0.00
1.72
52
2.3
0.4
123
10
11
210
26
7

1.38
0.05
1.43
48
2.2
0.8
123
12
13
206
23
6

1.17
0.06
1.24
47
2.2
1.3
124
13
16
206
20
5

0.95
0.04
0.98
45
2.2
1.9
125
14
18
208
16
4

0.66
0.01
0.67
43
2.1
2.3
125
16
20
190
10
2

Population

Million

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run

2.83
0.00
2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
23
179
42
13

3.20
0.00
3.20
74
2.6
17.0
58
13
23
161
36
12

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data

Page 94 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1T run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1T run

A1T MESSAGE
REF - A1T MESSAGE

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

413

419

427

433

435

433

423

409

392

374

357

339

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.1
2.6

0.8
2.2

1.0
2.5

2.1
3.7

5.4
6.0

9.4
9.4

12.6
12.6

16.2
16.2

20.0
20.0

24.4
24.4

29.2
29.2

34.4
34.4

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
9
15
14
6
7
50

0
5
11
11
6
6
38

0
4
10
14
7
6
41

0
3
12
17
10
9
51

0
2
14
22
14
13
65

0
0
14
26
20
13
72

0
0
12
27
23
12
73

0
0
13
26
26
12
76

0
0
13
23
28
11
76

0
0
14
19
32
11
76

0
0
16
13
34
12
75

0
0
17
9
34
13
73

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

19
20
27
1
2

14
15
23
1
1

11
13
29
1
1

13
14
32
1
1

17
15
40
4
3

16
14
44
9
4

11
12
50
10
7

4
12
63
9
10

2
8
72
5
12

1
6
70
3
14

8
5
46
3
16

8
3
31
2
19

1
70

1
54

2
56

4
65

6
84

7
95

12
101

14
112

19
117

26
120

42
119

52
116

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.3

0.3
0.3
0.5

0.4
0.5
0.8

0.5
0.6
1.1

0.7
0.8
1.5

0.9
0.9
1.9

1.0
1.0
2.4

1.1
1.1
3.1

1.1
1.2
3.8

1.1
1.3
4.5

1.2
1.3
5.0

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

20.9

31.3

42.4

54.4

65.2

75.7

86.7

97.4

106.8

114.1

268
341
0
966
701
2276

266
361
0

265
364
0

265
366
3

265
367
6

264
368
11

263
370
16

262
371
19

262
371
22

261
372
23

260
373
21

260
374
20

950
698
2276

918
728
2276

904
738
2276

894
745
2276

899
733
2276

905
722
2276

909
715
2276

912
709
2276

916
703
2276

922
700
2276

927
696
2276

0.88
0.18
1.06
42
0.6
7.5
8
5
8
49
16
3

1.00
0.01
1.01
49
0.6
4.9
19
8
10
61
20
4

1.22
0.00
1.22
58
0.6
5.2
29
14
14
82
25
5

1.24
-0.08
1.17
58
0.6
4.5
31
20
18
98
31
5

1.16
-0.15
1.01
54
0.6
4.1
32
21
21
112
34
5

1.20
-0.12
1.09
52
0.6
1.8
33
22
19
121
39
5

1.20
-0.09
1.11
48
0.6
1.2
33
23
15
118
37
4

1.11
-0.07
1.03
43
0.6
0.7
34
24
14
105
33
4

0.91
-0.06
0.84
36
0.6
3.0
33
25
10
90
30
3

0.66
-0.05
0.61
30
0.6
3.1
31
24
11
75
26
2

Population

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run

1.30
0.00
1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8
69
16
5

0.91
0.00
0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6
41
13
3

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data

Page 95 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1T run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1T run

A1T MESSAGE
ASIA - A1T MESSAGE
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2798

3261

3620

3937

4147

4238

4220

4085

3867

3589

3258

2882

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.5
5.3

2.7
8.3

5.8
13.5

13.5
22.8

27.2
36.2

44.9
52.2

65.3
70.0

95.8
96.8

126.9
126.9

155.5
155.5

186.5
186.5

218.2
218.2

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

24
19
13
2
4
1
62

15
38
22
3
8
3
88

11
51
38
8
15
5
128

8
60
56
14
30
11
178

4
63
86
22
51
15
241

3
38
120
40
70
18
289

2
24
152
54
98
25
356

0
21
157
73
128
35
414

0
21
156
77
160
46
459

0
13
149
72
183
59
476

0
1
142
62
201
74
479

0
0
131
45
222
89
486

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

30
15
3
0
24

51
26
5
1
23

71
39
14
2
27

96
55
28
4
33

122
76
48
8
44

102
91
74
15
59

79
102
98
27
83

57
95
108
43
108

39
90
101
65
123

40
60
88
74
132

26
45
81
65
132

12
31
68
48
142

1
74

3
108

6
160

15
231

26
323

44
385

79
467

130
540

191
609

261
655

343
692

435
736

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.2
0.0

0.8
0.4
0.1

1.6
0.8
0.2

2.5
1.4
0.5

3.7
2.1
1.0

4.8
3.1
1.7

5.6
4.1
2.7

6.1
5.0
3.8

6.5
5.9
4.8

6.9
6.5
5.7

7.2
7.0
6.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

42.7

76.3

120.8

173.1

225.8

275.0

317.9

353.7

381.9

401.6

438
608
0
535
583
2164

435
606
0

434
609
0

433
611
17

432
613
37

431
615
68

431
617
99

430
618
117

429
619
134

428
621
138

428
622
127

428
624
117

522
601
2164

512
609
2164

524
579
2164

535
547
2164

535
515
2164

535
483
2164

544
456
2164

552
429
2164

556
421
2164

555
431
2164

555
441
2164

2.73
0.22
2.95
152
2.4
32.3
18
8
12
340
47
12

3.90
-0.13
3.77
185
2.4
35.4
45
15
19
422
58
17

5.26
-0.12
5.14
225
2.5
35.8
92
23
28
564
70
23

5.36
-0.04
5.32
226
2.5
22.8
153
30
42
663
75
26

5.19
0.03
5.22
227
2.5
16.3
224
35
50
784
82
28

4.65
-0.03
4.62
200
2.4
13.4
292
39
55
853
82
26

4.06
-0.09
3.97
167
2.3
11.6
292
43
48
896
83
22

3.29
-0.10
3.19
147
2.3
8.8
285
46
35
914
76
18

2.47
-0.04
2.43
130
2.2
6.6
275
48
33
866
63
15

1.52
0.01
1.53
110
2.2
5.1
262
46
37
777
41
12

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run

1.15
0.37
1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4
235
33
7

1.78
0.26
2.03
125
2.6
25.3
5
5
7
270
37
9

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data

Page 96 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1T run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1T run

A1T MESSAGE
ALM - A1T MESSAGE
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1192

1519

1875

2241

2557

2791

2980

3089

3115

3064

2934

2727

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.9
3.8

2.7
5.1

4.4
7.5

9.8
13.3

20.0
22.8

34.3
36.7

53.5
55.3

76.5
76.5

98.7
98.7

122.5
122.5

147.2
147.2

173.1
173.1

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

14
1
17
4
3
0
39

10
4
24
6
5
2
52

9
5
35
11
9
4
73

8
5
52
18
17
7
106

5
6
75
27
33
12
157

4
8
97
35
54
21
217

3
7
114
43
81
33
279

0
6
122
54
111
44
336

0
2
123
56
140
59
379

0
1
122
49
165
80
418

0
1
125
42
188
96
452

0
1
109
36
215
118
478

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

5
21
8
0
14

5
31
14
0
13

8
40
23
1
17

10
53
37
2
24

16
69
65
6
36

24
81
91
12
50

26
90
101
23
62

24
89
107
30
81

18
77
92
38
104

12
54
78
40
134

5
43
69
40
153

4
28
63
35
153

2
49

4
68

8
96

14
139

21
213

44
301

87
389

150
480

236
565

326
644

406
717

508
791

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.3
0.1

0.1
0.6
0.2

0.2
1.0
0.5

0.3
1.5
0.8

0.4
2.2
1.5

0.7
3.0
2.4

0.9
3.9
3.4

1.2
4.8
4.5

1.4
5.6
5.4

1.4
6.1
6.2

1.5
6.5
6.8

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

35.6

57.1

83.8

118.2

157.6

197.8

234.3

263.9

286.7

304.3

371
1680
0
1745
1684
5480

385
1673
0

384
1685
0

383
1695
42

382
1702
90

381
1708
165

381
1714
240

380
1718
282

379
1722
324

379
1726
333

378
1730
308

378
1733
284

1711
1710
5480

1690
1720
5480

1683
1676
5480

1680
1625
5480

1681
1544
5480

1682
1463
5480

1681
1419
5480

1680
1374
5480

1678
1364
5480

1676
1387
5480

1674
1411
5480

1.01
0.82
1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5
404
55
8

1.41
0.60
2.01
98
0.7
13.7
15
5
10
431
63
10

1.92
0.36
2.28
114
0.7
14.6
39
9
14
474
74
12

2.82
0.25
3.07
133
0.7
15.0
81
14
19
533
83
15

3.62
0.19
3.81
150
0.7
15.7
139
19
32
608
92
18

3.94
0.14
4.07
162
0.7
16.8
184
23
40
671
98
20

3.84
0.12
3.96
155
0.7
15.7
205
26
42
760
95
21

3.26
0.10
3.36
141
0.6
13.5
210
28
37
858
87
19

2.48
0.08
2.56
123
0.6
11.3
210
30
23
938
69
15

1.94
0.06
2.00
105
0.5
8.8
206
31
24
992
58
13

1.48
0.03
1.51
90
0.5
6.8
196
30
26
1035
50
12

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run

0.72
0.73
1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
3
396
48
7

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data

Page 97 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1T run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1T run

A1T MARIA
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1T MARIA
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Population

5262

6117

6888

7617

8048

8207

8704

8536

8372

8028

7527

7056

19.4

25.9

35.9

52.0

75.1

113.5

177.4

226.2

282.1

347.5

418.0

518.5

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

48
138
56
35
0
278

38
152
65
48
0
302

39
185
84
56
0
364

27
234
110
67
0
439

19
269
156
80
0
525

13
310
201
96
0
621

9
357
250
128
0
744

11
363
278
148
0
800

17
429
213
160
0
819

26
416
232
177
0
852

39
475
177
197
0
888

27
512
179
215
0
934

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

90
123
71
22
28

69
132
101
28
31

61
154
134
33
41

44
187
169
44
64

32
190
222
72
100

23
213
266
117
111

16
239
303
162
128

16
190
331
225
180

21
209
268
252
227

29
152
289
298
270

41
169
235
351
313

29
190
239
404
329

9
343

8
370

7
431

7
515

6
620

17
747

65
913

67
1010

69
1044

69
1106

67
1175

65
1255

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.9
1.2
0.7

1.6
2.5
1.7

2.2
4.1
3.1

2.6
6.0
4.8

3.0
7.9
7.0

3.2
10.0
9.6

3.3
12.4
12.7

3.5
14.3
16.0

3.7
16.4
18.7

4.0
17.9
21.5

4.4
19.6
23.9

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

158.7

249.1

345.2

447.3

556.5

665.0

766.4

861.5

952.1

1042.3

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Land Use

Million ha
1451
3395
0
4138
4061
13045

1451
3395
0
4142
4057
13045

1613
3236
0
4157
4039
13045

2001
2851
0
4177
4017
13045

2170
2682
0
4208
3985
13045

2213
2645
0
4244
3944
13045

2344
2606
40
4301
3754
13045

2069
2597
324
4374
3681
13045

1802
2597
592
4375
3681
13045

1545
2597
848
4375
3681
13045

1287
2597
1107
4375
3681
13045

1182
2597
1212
4375
3681
13045

5.99
1.11
7.10

6.90
1.07
7.97

7.66
1.04
8.70

8.41
0.99
9.39

8.95
0.87
9.82

9.88
0.70
10.58

10.80
0.47
11.26

10.25
0.18
10.43

9.76
0.09
9.85

9.15
0.03
9.18

8.98
-0.04
8.94

9.14
-0.04
9.10

1672
32
38

883
25
40

791
31
43

337
43
48

369
61
66

482
77
99

566
89
119

654
97
127

659
106
113

654
114
88

639
119
84

614
115
95

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 98 of 241

A1T MARIA

Page 99 of 241

A1T MARIA
OECD90 - A1T MARIA

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

859

919

965

1007

1035

1046

1081

1085

1091

1096

1103

1110

15.6

18.9

22.8

27.1

32.0

38.1

45.7

57.0

70.0

86.1

102.5

119.9

12
71
28
21
0
132

8
64
35
25
0
133

6
57
48
27
0
139

4
53
57
29
0
144

3
51
65
31
0
150

2
49
70
32
0
154

1
49
75
36
0
161

5
47
84
40
0
176

11
74
60
45
0
190

19
58
78
51
0
206

30
76
55
57
0
219

21
71
74
63
0
229

38
71
34
18
6

28
64
53
15
4

20
58
73
12
3

15
53
85
15
2

12
51
97
18
1

9
49
105
23
1

6
49
101
29
1

9
47
111
36
1

13
74
91
45
1

21
58
112
56
2

32
76
94
68
3

22
70
114
83
5

5
171

5
168

4
170

4
175

3
183

3
190

16
202

20
223

21
245

21
270

20
292

18
313

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.7
0.3

0.7
1.4
0.9

0.9
1.9
1.6

1.0
2.5
2.4

1.1
3.0
3.4

1.2
3.5
4.5

1.3
4.0
5.5

1.4
4.4
6.6

1.5
5.2
7.5

1.7
5.8
8.6

2.0
6.5
9.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

62.2

94.3

126.8

159.6

190.8

220.8

252.7

287.3

324.9

364.4

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Land Use

Million ha
378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
796
754
2684

378
756
0
834
716
2684

378
756
0
834
716
2684

331
756
47
834
716
2684

266
756
112
834
716
2684

213
756
164
834
716
2684

2.83
0.00
2.83

3.20
0.00
3.20

3.19
0.03
3.22

3.16
0.05
3.21

3.20
0.08
3.28

3.21
0.05
3.27

3.09
-0.10
2.99

3.27
-0.25
3.02

3.62
-0.27
3.35

3.81
-0.24
3.57

4.17
-0.21
3.96

4.12
-0.19
3.94

19
18
23

58
13
23

110
13
14

108
11
5

115
9
6

118
8
7

122
9
9

123
10
11

123
12
13

124
13
16

125
14
18

125
16
20

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 100 of 241

A1T MARIA
REF - A1T MARIA

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

413

419

427

433

432

430

423

406

391

374

356

339

0.9

1.3

1.8

2.6

4.5

7.9

13.4

17.6

21.7

26.1

31.5

38.7

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

13
17
21
7
0
58

9
13
23
8
0
53

6
12
26
7
0
51

4
11
30
7
0
53

3
12
41
9
0
65

2
13
52
11
0
78

2
13
64
13
0
92

2
12
69
14
0
98

3
15
66
15
0
99

5
11
68
15
0
99

7
17
61
16
0
101

5
28
53
16
0
102

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

19
19
27
3
1

13
14
31
2
1

9
12
34
2
0

6
11
39
2
0

4
12
53
3
0

3
13
68
3
0

2
14
81
4
0

2
13
88
5
0

3
15
85
7
0

6
11
86
8
0

7
17
79
10
1

5
28
70
13
1

1
69

1
63

1
58

1
60

1
73

1
89

4
105

4
112

4
114

4
115

4
118

3
121

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.3

0.3
0.3
0.6

0.4
0.5
0.9

0.5
0.6
1.3

0.5
0.7
1.8

0.5
0.8
2.5

0.6
1.0
3.3

0.6
1.1
4.2

0.6
1.2
5.1

0.7
1.3
5.9

0.8
1.5
6.7

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

19.7

27.9

37.0

48.0

60.8

74.3

87.7

100.9

113.7

126.8

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Land Use

Million ha
217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
827
710
1868

174
114
43
862
675
1868

139
114
78
862
675
1868

111
114
106
862
675
1868

89
114
128
862
675
1868

78
114
139
862
675
1868

1.30
0.00
1.30

0.91
0.00
0.91

0.80
0.02
0.82

0.80
0.03
0.83

0.97
0.02
1.00

1.19
0.01
1.20

1.38
-0.03
1.35

1.46
-0.12
1.34

1.50
-0.15
1.35

1.48
-0.20
1.29

1.54
-0.25
1.28

1.58
-0.24
1.34

0
7
8

4
4
6

8
5
8

19
8
10

29
14
14

31
20
18

32
21
21

33
22
19

33
23
15

34
24
14

33
25
10

31
24
11

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 101 of 241

A1T MARIA
ASIA - A1T MARIA
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2642

3080

3425

3728

3861

3895

4008

3814

3632

3368

3040

2744

1.2

2.6

5.8

12.3

20.8

35.9

61.8

80.3

102.5

128.8

159.8

204.1

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

20
26
2
4
0
52

18
42
3
9
0
72

25
65
4
11
0
106

17
97
8
16
0
139

12
120
16
19
0
168

8
146
25
24
0
203

6
168
35
34
0
243

4
172
41
41
0
257

3
190
29
46
0
267

2
200
24
52
0
277

2
212
17
59
0
289

1
214
22
64
0
301

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

28
14
3
1
13

24
23
5
12
21

29
36
8
18
31

20
51
14
26
51

14
51
20
28
80

10
72
28
50
81

7
92
38
55
81

5
72
42
79
104

3
56
30
89
137

2
39
25
103
162

2
45
17
122
168

1
41
22
133
174

1
61

1
86

1
124

1
163

1
195

1
243

20
293

20
322

20
335

20
352

20
373

20
391

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.1
0.0

0.5
0.4
0.1

0.8
0.7
0.2

1.0
1.3
0.3

1.2
1.8
0.5

1.3
2.5
0.8

1.3
3.4
1.2

1.4
4.1
1.6

1.4
4.7
1.9

1.4
5.1
2.1

1.4
5.5
2.3

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

40.0

64.6

89.4

115.7

146.5

177.4

203.4

224.3

242.5

260.4

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Land Use

Million ha
366
431
0
365
458
1621

366
431
0
367
456
1621

380
421
0
380
440
1621

380
423
0
388
430
1621

380
423
0
397
421
1621

380
423
0
404
414
1621

380
384
40
404
412
1621

377
375
52
404
412
1621

373
375
57
404
412
1621

336
375
93
404
412
1621

305
375
124
404
412
1621

263
375
167
404
412
1621

1.15
0.37
1.53

1.78
0.26
2.03

2.20
0.20
2.40

2.36
0.16
2.53

2.31
0.12
2.44

2.73
0.10
2.83

3.21
0.09
3.31

2.82
0.07
2.89

2.27
0.04
2.32

1.83
0.02
1.85

1.81
0.00
1.80

1.80
-0.03
1.77

0
3
4

5
5
7

18
8
12

45
15
19

92
23
28

153
30
42

224
35
50

292
39
55

292
43
48

285
46
35

275
48
33

262
46
37

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 102 of 241

A1T MARIA
ALM - A1T MARIA
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1348

1699

2071

2449

2720

2836

3192

3231

3259

3190

3029

2864

1.7

3.1

5.5

10.0

17.8

31.7

56.5

71.4

87.9

106.5

124.2

155.9

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

3
24
5
3
0
35

2
33
4
6
0
45

2
50
6
10
0
68

1
72
14
15
0
103

1
86
35
21
0
143

1
103
54
29
0
186

0
127
75
45
0
247

0
132
84
53
0
268

0
150
59
54
0
263

0
148
63
59
0
270

0
171
44
65
0
280

0
199
31
72
0
302

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

6
18
7
0
8

4
30
12
0
6

3
48
19
0
7

2
71
32
0
11

1
75
51
23
18

1
79
65
40
28

1
84
83
74
46

0
59
90
105
75

0
63
63
112
88

0
44
65
130
105

0
31
46
151
141

0
50
32
174
149

2
41

2
53

1
79

1
117

1
170

12
226

25
313

24
353

25
351

24
369

24
392

24
430

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.2
0.1

0.1
0.5
0.2

0.1
1.0
0.4

0.1
1.7
0.7

0.2
2.4
1.2

0.2
3.2
1.9

0.2
4.1
2.7

0.2
4.6
3.6

0.2
5.3
4.2

0.2
5.7
4.9

0.2
6.0
5.3

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

36.8

62.3

92.0

123.9

158.4

192.4

222.6

249.1

270.9

290.7

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Land Use

Million ha
490
2095
0
2202
2086
6873

490
2095
0
2204
2084
6873

639
1946
0
2207
2081
6873

1026
1559
0
2218
2070
6873

1195
1390
0
2241
2047
6873

1238
1352
0
2268
2014
6873

1370
1352
0
2274
1878
6873

1141
1352
229
2274
1878
6873

913
1352
457
2274
1878
6873

767
1352
603
2274
1878
6873

627
1352
742
2274
1878
6873

627
1352
742
2274
1878
6873

0.72
0.73
1.45

1.01
0.82
1.83

1.47
0.79
2.26

2.09
0.74
2.83

2.47
0.64
3.11

2.74
0.54
3.28

3.12
0.50
3.62

2.70
0.48
3.19

2.37
0.47
2.84

2.03
0.45
2.48

1.46
0.43
1.89

1.64
0.42
2.05

0
4
3

2
4
5

15
5
10

39
9
14

81
14
19

139
19
32

184
23
40

205
26
42

210
28
37

210
30
23

206
31
24

196
30
26

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 103 of 241

A2 ASF
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A2 ASF
1990
Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

5282

6170

7188

8206

9170

10715

11296

12139

12587

13828

14743

15068

20.1

25.2

31.9

40.5

51.2

72.3

81.6

101.9

114.1

159.3

218.4

242.8

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

52
117
49
41

51
150
53
48

58
187
65
63

65
246
92
85

61
275
124
125

58
304
155
164

55
334
187
204

58
371
209
247

61
408
231
290

63
469
246
343

65
552
254
405

67
635
262
468

257

303

373

488

585

682

779

884

990

1120

1276

1431

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

92
134
71
8
0

90
172
74
13
0

106
220
89
14
6

129
291
126
17
12

184
270
176
32
32

239
249
225
47
52

294
228
275
62
71

415
148
297
87
92

536
69
319
112
112

658
23
330
147
130

781
12
331
190
146

904
0
331
234
162

8
313

11
360

15
450

20
595

27
720

34
846

42
971

49
1088

56
1204

65
1353

75
1535

86
1717

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

1.0
1.7
0.8

2.0
3.6
1.6

3.2
6.2
2.7

4.7
9.0
4.2

6.9
11.6
6.2

9.5
13.9
8.7

13.1
15.7
11.6

17.9
16.7
14.7

31.1
17.0
17.9

38.3
17.2
21.3

46.8
17.2
24.6

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

163.1

272.2

407.1

561.1

728.6

911.5

1111.7

1332.2

1579.1

1855.3

-1.8

-1.6

-1.5

-1.3

-1.1

-0.9

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

5.99
1.11
7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38
879
139
31

6.90
1.07
7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40
877
141
32

8.46
1.12
9.58
370
8.1
74.7
785
41
50
977
155
39

11.01
1.25
12.25
424
9.6
99.5
292
51
64
1075
179
50

13.53
1.19
14.72
486
10.7
112.5
258
64
75
1259
202
61

15.01
1.06
16.07
542
11.3
109.0
291
77
89
1344
214
66

16.49
0.93
17.43
598
12.0
105.4
312
92
104
1428
225
71

18.49
0.67
19.16
654
12.9
89.6
384
113
122
1545
238
75

20.49
0.40
20.89
711
13.9
73.7
457
129
129
1662
251
80

22.97
0.25
23.22
770
14.8
64.7
549
148
135
1842
275
87

25.94
0.21
26.15
829
15.7
62.5
662
168
153
2084
309
98

28.91
0.18
29.09
889
16.5
60.3
753
178
165
2326
342
109

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 104 of 241

A2 ASF

Page 105 of 241

A2 ASF
OECD90 - A2 ASF

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

851

923

975

1027

1072

1131

1151

1202

1228

1323

1451

1496

15.3

18.7

22.3

26.0

30.0

37.1

39.9

46.3

50.0

63.1

80.7

87.6

12
67
27
23

12
85
30
27

12
93
29
33

13
99
33
39

13
97
37
46

14
94
41
52

14
92
46
59

15
95
49
69

15
98
52
79

16
109
54
93

16
128
57
112

16
146
60
130

130

154

167

184

193

202

211

227

244

272

312

352

33
76
34
7
0

29
94
37
10
0

32
107
37
11
1

37
116
43
11
4

55
94
52
14
10

74
72
61
17
16

92
49
69
20
23

115
31
72
27
23

138
12
74
34
23

164
2
75
45
24

191
1
76
58
26

218
0
77
72
29

5
155

6
176

7
194

8
220

10
235

11
250

12
266

13
281

15
296

17
326

20
372

23
418

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.9
0.4

0.6
1.9
0.8

1.0
3.1
1.2

1.4
4.1
1.6

2.1
4.9
2.2

2.9
5.5
2.9

4.0
5.9
3.6

5.3
6.1
4.3

6.8
6.1
5.0

8.6
6.1
5.8

10.6
6.1
6.6

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

63.7

101.0

142.9

187.8

234.4

282.7

333.0

386.3

445.2

510.9

2.83
0.00
2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
23
179
42
13

3.20
0.00
3.20
74
2.6
17.0
57
13
23
161
36
12

3.51
0.00
3.51
78
2.7
7.9
107
14
25
168
40
14

3.96
0.00
3.96
84
3.0
8.7
103
14
28
175
44
16

4.42
0.00
4.42
91
3.1
9.3
111
14
29
175
46
17

4.58
0.00
4.58
98
3.1
9.5
116
14
29
158
44
17

4.74
0.00
4.74
105
3.0
9.8
125
14
28
141
42
16

4.93
0.00
4.93
113
3.2
9.3
130
13
26
147
44
16

5.11
0.00
5.11
121
3.3
8.8
135
11
20
154
45
16

5.55
0.00
5.55
133
3.5
9.1
142
13
12
174
50
17

6.23
0.00
6.23
149
3.7
10.5
151
15
14
209
58
19

6.91
0.00
6.91
166
3.9
11.8
160
17
16
243
67
21

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 106 of 241

A2 ASF
REF - A2 ASF

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

418

421

438

454

473

507

519

551

568

622

684

706

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

0.9

0.8

1.0

1.4

2.1

3.2

3.7

4.9

5.7

8.5

12.5

14.2

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

17
15
15
8

10
10
11
6

10
11
13
8

11
13
17
11

11
14
22
14

11
16
27
16

11
17
32
19

11
19
36
22

11
22
40
26

11
25
42
31

11
31
44
37

11
37
46
43

55

38

43

52

61

70

79

89

99

110

123

137

23
17
25
1
0

12
12
19
1
0

13
13
22
1
1

17
15
29
2
0

19
17
33
3
0

21
19
37
4
0

23
21
40
6
0

26
16
43
8
5

30
11
46
10
9

37
7
49
14
12

48
3
51
18
14

59
0
52
22
15

1
67

1
45

1
52

2
64

2
74

3
84

3
93

4
102

4
111

5
124

6
139

7
155

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.2

0.3
0.3
0.5

0.5
0.4
0.7

0.6
0.6
1.0

0.8
0.8
1.4

1.1
1.0
1.8

1.3
1.1
2.2

1.6
1.3
2.6

9.1
1.3
3.1

9.5
1.3
3.6

10.1
1.3
4.1

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

20.7

31.9

45.0

59.3

74.3

90.0

107.0

125.3

145.8

168.7

1.30
0.00
1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8
69
16
5

0.91
0.00
0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6
41
13
3

1.03
0.00
1.03
41
0.6
11.1
8
8
7
40
15
3

1.22
0.00
1.22
46
0.7
12.0
13
10
10
40
19
4

1.40
0.00
1.40
57
0.7
12.0
20
14
12
47
25
5

1.46
0.00
1.46
67
0.8
11.1
27
17
15
51
28
5

1.52
0.00
1.52
78
0.8
10.2
31
20
19
56
31
5

1.63
0.00
1.63
92
0.8
8.2
37
25
24
63
29
5

1.75
0.00
1.75
106
0.9
6.2
41
30
28
70
27
6

1.93
0.00
1.93
119
0.9
4.8
44
35
32
83
29
6

2.17
0.00
2.17
131
0.9
4.0
48
40
36
101
33
7

2.41
0.00
2.41
143
1.0
3.2
52
42
38
119
37
8

Population

Million

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 107 of 241

A2 ASF
ASIA - A2 ASF
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2791

3295

3801

4308

4779

5500

5764

6137

6333

6858

7214

7340

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.4

2.3

3.5

5.3

7.6

12.6

15.0

20.0

23.1

34.9

50.5

57.1

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

21
13
2
5

28
24
5
9

33
39
9
13

38
64
19
20

33
77
28
42

27
90
36
64

22
103
45
86

22
118
51
104

23
134
56
121

23
156
59
140

23
185
60
160

23
215
60
181

42

65

95

141

179

218

256

295

334

379

429

479

32
17
3
0
0

43
30
6
1
0

52
48
13
2
1

62
77
24
3
3

86
70
42
11
10

110
64
60
19
16

134
57
79
26
23

181
35
85
37
22

227
13
91
47
21

272
1
93
60
20

313
1
88
75
20

355
0
84
90
20

1
53

2
82

3
119

5
174

8
228

12
281

16
335

18
378

21
421

25
470

28
526

32
581

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.3
0.1

0.9
0.6
0.1

1.5
1.3
0.3

2.2
2.0
0.7

3.2
2.7
1.2

4.4
3.3
1.9

6.0
3.7
2.7

8.1
3.9
3.6

10.6
4.0
4.5

13.5
4.0
5.4

16.9
4.0
6.3

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

42.0

75.7

120.2

173.8

234.9

303.5

379.5

463.6

556.6

659.2

1.15
0.37
1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4
235
33
7

1.78
0.26
2.03
125
2.6
25.3
5
5
7
270
37
9

2.47
0.34
2.81
144
3.2
36.2
11
11
11
321
41
12

3.52
0.39
3.92
163
4.0
51.5
18
15
16
361
46
16

4.64
0.35
4.99
184
4.6
56.6
27
20
20
435
50
20

5.45
0.28
5.73
205
4.9
52.7
38
25
27
479
53
23

6.27
0.22
6.48
227
5.3
48.9
54
32
34
522
56
26

7.08
0.15
7.23
241
5.8
40.1
77
42
43
576
60
28

7.90
0.08
7.98
255
6.2
31.3
100
49
49
630
64
30

8.79
0.04
8.83
272
6.6
25.6
130
56
55
707
69
33

9.75
0.03
9.78
290
6.9
23.1
167
64
62
806
76
36

10.71
0.02
10.74
308
7.2
20.5
204
67
67
906
82
40

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 108 of 241

A2 ASF
ALM - A2 ASF
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1222

1530

1974

2417

2846

3578

3862

4250

4458

5025

5394

5526

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

2.4

3.4

5.1

7.8

11.5

19.3

23.0

30.6

35.4

52.9

74.7

83.8

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

1
21
5
4

1
31
8
6

2
45
13
9

3
70
24
15

5
87
37
23

7
104
50
32

8
121
64
40

10
138
73
52

12
155
83
64

13
178
89
79

14
208
93
97

16
238
96
115

31

47

69

112

153

193

234

273

313

359

411

464

4
24
8
0
0

7
36
11
0
0

9
53
17
0
2

14
82
29
1
5

24
88
48
4
12

35
94
68
7
19

45
100
87
9
25

92
67
97
15
43

140
34
107
20
60

185
14
114
28
74

228
7
116
39
86

272
0
118
50
98

1
38

2
56

3
85

5
137

7
184

9
231

11
278

13
327

16
376

18
433

21
498

25
563

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.3
0.1

0.1
0.8
0.2

0.3
1.4
0.5

0.4
2.3
0.9

0.7
3.2
1.5

1.1
4.2
2.2

1.8
5.0
3.2

3.0
5.5
4.2

4.6
5.7
5.3

6.7
5.8
6.4

9.2
5.8
7.6

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

36.7

63.6

99.0

140.1

185.0

235.2

292.3

357.1

431.5

516.5

0.72
0.73
1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
3
396
48
7

1.01
0.82
1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5
404
55
8

1.45
0.77
2.23
107
1.6
16.5
19
8
7
448
60
10

2.31
0.85
3.16
132
1.9
24.4
32
12
10
499
70
14

3.08
0.84
3.92
153
2.2
31.7
49
16
13
603
81
19

3.52
0.78
4.30
171
2.5
32.6
69
21
18
656
89
21

3.96
0.71
4.68
188
2.8
33.5
98
26
23
709
96
24

4.84
0.52
5.36
208
3.1
29.0
139
34
29
758
106
26

5.72
0.32
6.04
229
3.5
24.4
181
39
32
808
115
29

6.70
0.21
6.91
246
3.8
22.1
233
45
37
877
127
32

7.79
0.18
7.97
259
4.1
21.9
295
50
41
968
142
36

8.87
0.16
9.03
272
4.4
21.8
336
52
43
1058
156
40

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 109 of 241

A2 AIM
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A2 AIM
1990
Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

5262

6132

7165

8198

9231

10208

11287

12008

12776

13536

14281

15068

20.1

25.1

31.8

40.2

50.7

63.9

80.7

101.2

126.9

157.7

194.3

239.4

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

50
36
111
51
38

57
48
115
56
51

69
65
135
80
69

68
79
162
101
88

69
95
190
129
116

62
108
204
147
145

55
121
220
167
181

36
131
244
177
226

24
141
270
186
283

0
150
308
201
348

0
157
360
220
420

0
165
421
241
507

285

327

418

499

599

668

744

824

911

1024

1169

1334

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

93
143
73
6
50

119
155
96
9
48

177
179
133
11
38

230
182
170
14
66

301
176
216
16
99

344
163
244
27
119

396
152
276
48
143

477
134
292
65
161

575
121
309
88
181

692
107
334
116
194

837
92
368
150
199

1016
80
406
195
203

10
376

11
438

13
551

15
677

20
829

25
921

31
1046

45
1173

67
1341

91
1535

112
1758

140
2040

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.1
0.1
0.1

1.2
1.6
0.9

2.6
3.3
2.1

4.7
5.1
3.6

7.3
6.9
5.5

10.2
8.3
7.6

14.3
10.2
10.4

18.5
11.4
12.9

23.9
12.7
16.0

30.4
14.0
19.4

38.1
14.9
22.8

47.7
16.0
26.9

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

166.3

274.2

399.6

544.8

707.5

891.0

1098.6

1335.8

1610.5

1930.7

1459
3389
0
4296
3805
12949

1484
3411
0
4248
3805
12949

1518
3446
0
4217
3768
12949

1551
3478
89
4254
3577
12949

1586
3510
194
4301
3359
12949

1623
3546
252
4307
3220
12949

1660
3582
311
4314
3082
12949

1702
3611
316
4306
3013
12949

1744
3640
322
4299
2944
12949

1787
3664
314
4292
2892
12949

1833
3683
291
4285
2858
12949

1879
3701
268
4277
2823
12949

5.99
1.11
7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38
879
139
31

6.90
1.07
7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40
877
141
32

9.30
0.92
10.22
362
7.3
86.7
785
41
50
983
183
37

11.29
0.07
11.36
385
7.4
105.0
292
51
64
952
205
42

13.70
0.02
13.72
412
7.6
132.8
258
64
75
1029
230
47

15.05
0.26
15.31
422
7.9
135.1
291
77
89
1101
225
48

16.60
0.64
17.23
434
8.1
140.7
312
92
104
1179
221
50

18.73
0.74
19.47
457
8.4
151.9
384
113
122
1268
208
53

21.20
0.87
22.07
481
8.8
165.1
457
129
129
1366
197
56

24.41
0.97
25.38
505
9.1
148.0
549
148
135
1500
186
60

28.56
1.00
29.56
526
9.5
113.3
662
168
153
1679
177
65

33.43
1.04
34.47
549
9.8
92.9
753
178
165
1881
169
71

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 110 of 241

A2 AIM

Page 111 of 241

A2 AIM
OECD90 - A2 AIM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

859

914

966

1018

1071

1111

1152

1218

1288

1357

1425

1496

15.3

18.6

21.9

25.5

29.7

34.2

39.4

45.8

53.2

62.3

73.4

86.6

6
10
64
25
22

2
14
69
31
27

1
16
72
38
32

0
18
82
44
37

0
20
88
49
44

0
21
87
51
50

0
21
87
52
57

0
22
88
52
66

0
23
89
51
76

0
23
95
53
88

0
24
106
57
102

0
25
118
61
118

127

142

158

181

201

209

217

228

240

259

289

322

41
76
34
5
6

46
83
46
7
1

60
84
54
8
0

70
84
62
9
6

80
74
70
9
15

86
61
72
11
20

92
50
75
14
27

106
36
73
18
31

122
26
71
22
35

147
19
73
28
37

187
13
79
35
38

238
9
85
45
39

6
167

6
189

7
211

8
238

10
257

12
262

13
272

18
281

23
299

28
331

31
383

34
450

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.1
0.0

0.5
0.9
0.4

1.0
1.7
0.9

1.6
2.5
1.5

2.4
3.3
2.2

3.1
3.9
2.8

4.1
4.6
3.6

5.1
4.9
4.3

6.2
5.3
5.0

7.6
5.5
5.8

9.4
5.7
6.5

11.5
5.9
7.4

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

63.9

101.2

141.9

185.2

230.6

277.8

326.6

378.4

436.9

504.5

381
760
0
1050
838
3029

384
765
0
1062
818
3029

391
775
0
1080
783
3029

398
786
17
1109
720
3029

405
797
37
1137
652
3029

413
813
48
1137
617
3029

422
830
59
1136
582
3029

432
841
61
1136
560
3029

442
853
62
1135
537
3029

453
860
60
1133
522
3029

465
864
56
1131
513
3029

477
867
51
1128
504
3029

3.62
-0.07
3.55
74
2.7
11.1
107
14
25
189
37
12

4.08
-0.18
3.90
74
2.8
8.6
103
14
28
216
38
12

4.41
-0.18
4.23
75
2.7
9.2
111
14
29
251
39
12

4.48
-0.04
4.44
69
2.8
9.6
116
14
29
265
35
10

4.55
0.10
4.65
64
2.8
10.1
125
14
28
280
32
9

4.70
0.10
4.80
66
2.8
11.0
130
13
26
294
26
9

4.86
0.10
4.95
67
2.9
12.0
135
11
20
307
21
10

5.32
0.10
5.42
70
2.9
13.7
142
13
12
331
20
10

6.17
0.10
6.27
73
3.1
16.1
151
15
14
365
22
11

7.15
0.10
7.26
76
3.2
19.0
160
17
16
404
24
13

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 112 of 241

2.83
0.00
2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
23
179
42
13

3.20
0.00
3.20
74
2.6
17.0
57
13
23
161
36
12

A2 AIM
REF - A2 AIM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

413

428

444

460

476

497

519

555

593

630

667

706

0.9

0.8

1.1

1.5

2.0

2.7

3.7

4.9

6.4

8.4

10.8

13.9

2
9
19
19
8

4
7
9
13
9

1
10
8
18
12

0
11
8
22
14

0
13
8
27
16

0
14
8
31
20

0
15
7
36
25

0
15
8
37
30

0
16
9
39
37

0
16
10
42
44

0
16
12
46
52

0
17
14
51
61

58

43

48

55

64

72

82

91

101

113

127

143

18
22
26
1
2

17
13
21
1
4

23
11
27
2
0

28
10
32
2
1

33
9
37
2
3

36
8
40
4
5

39
7
44
7
6

49
5
46
9
7

62
3
47
12
8

83
2
51
15
9

118
1
56
19
9

166
1
61
24
9

1
71

1
58

1
63

1
75

2
85

2
94

3
106

5
121

7
141

10
170

13
215

16
277

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.3

0.4
0.3
0.5

0.7
0.4
0.8

1.0
0.5
1.1

1.3
0.6
1.5

1.7
0.6
1.9

2.1
0.7
2.3

2.7
0.7
2.8

3.5
0.8
3.3

4.6
0.8
3.9

6.0
0.8
4.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

21.2

32.7

45.2

59.4

75.3

93.5

114.9

140.5

172.2

212.1

268
341
0
966
701
2276

270
362
0
950
694
2276

276
366
0
936
698
2276

282
370
4
938
682
2276

288
373
9
941
665
2276

295
376
11
942
651
2276

302
379
14
942
638
2276

309
382
14
936
634
2276

317
385
14
929
630
2276

325
387
14
924
626
2276

333
390
13
920
621
2276

341
392
12
915
615
2276

1.11
0.01
1.13
48
0.6
14.8
8
8
7
41
14
3

1.30
-0.14
1.16
47
0.7
17.4
13
10
10
43
14
4

1.47
-0.12
1.35
45
0.7
15.3
20
14
12
46
14
4

1.59
-0.09
1.50
46
0.7
10.4
27
17
15
47
13
4

1.73
-0.05
1.68
46
0.8
7.0
31
20
19
48
13
4

1.98
-0.01
1.97
53
0.8
6.4
37
25
24
50
13
4

2.27
0.04
2.31
60
0.8
5.9
41
30
28
53
12
3

2.73
0.07
2.80
69
0.8
6.8
44
35
32
57
12
3

3.45
0.08
3.54
79
0.8
9.5
48
40
36
62
12
3

4.36
0.10
4.45
90
0.9
13.0
52
42
38
68
12
3

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 113 of 241

1.30
0.00
1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8
69
16
5

0.91
0.00
0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6
41
13
3

A2 AIM
ASIA - A2 AIM
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2798

3278

3783

4288

4793

5255

5762

6065

6385

6701

7013

7339

1.4

2.3

3.4

5.1

7.4

10.4

14.5

19.4

25.9

33.7

42.9

54.7

28
15
11
2
5

31
24
16
3
8

37
33
22
6
14

35
41
30
9
21

35
50
41
14
33

30
57
47
17
42

26
67
54
21
55

14
72
62
24
72

7
79
71
26
94

0
84
83
28
119

0
90
99
30
147

0
95
118
31
181

61

82

114

136

172

196

223

250

281

320

369

426

30
17
4
0
28

46
24
9
1
24

72
34
16
1
19

95
37
23
2
21

130
38
36
3
21

148
36
46
7
26

168
33
58
15
33

203
28
64
21
37

245
24
71
30
42

291
20
78
40
45

338
15
85
53
46

393
11
92
70
47

1
80

2
106

2
144

2
180

4
233

5
267

7
314

12
365

20
431

29
502

37
574

48
662

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.2
0.1

1.0
0.5
0.2

1.8
0.9
0.4

3.0
1.2
0.7

4.2
1.6
1.0

6.0
2.0
1.6

7.7
2.2
2.1

10.0
2.5
2.8

12.7
2.7
3.6

15.8
2.9
4.4

19.7
3.1
5.3

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

42.7

74.4

114.7

164.6

221.9

288.3

365.1

453.7

555.2

671.2

438
608
0
535
583
2164

440
607
0
523
593
2164

451
612
0
515
586
2164

462
616
21
529
537
2164

473
621
45
542
484
2164

485
625
58
544
452
2164

497
629
72
546
421
2164

509
633
73
546
402
2164

522
637
74
547
384
2164

535
641
72
548
368
2164

549
644
67
548
356
2164

562
648
61
548
344
2164

2.68
0.26
2.94
141
2.7
38.6
11
11
11
304
51
11

3.44
-0.03
3.41
154
2.7
52.7
18
15
16
302
60
14

4.59
0.07
4.65
171
2.8
71.2
27
20
20
352
70
17

5.16
0.16
5.31
181
3.0
70.2
38
25
27
383
69
19

5.80
0.37
6.16
192
3.1
69.2
54
32
34
417
69
21

6.71
0.41
7.12
203
3.2
70.0
77
42
43
452
65
22

7.77
0.47
8.24
214
3.4
70.7
100
49
49
491
62
22

8.96
0.51
9.47
223
3.5
56.8
130
56
55
543
57
23

10.30
0.53
10.83
229
3.7
36.3
167
64
62
615
52
24

11.83
0.55
12.38
236
3.8
23.4
204
67
67
696
47
25

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 114 of 241

1.15
0.37
1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4
235
33
7

1.78
0.26
2.03
125
2.6
25.3
5
5
7
270
37
9

A2 AIM
ALM - A2 AIM
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1192

1512

1972

2432

2892

3338

3854

4169

4510

4847

5176

5527

2.4

3.4

5.4

8.1

11.5

16.3

23.1

30.8

41.1

53.2

66.9

84.2

14
1
17
4
4

20
3
22
9
7

31
6
33
18
11

33
9
42
27
16

34
13
53
39
23

32
16
62
48
32

29
19
72
58
44

22
21
85
64
58

17
24
100
70
76

0
26
119
78
96

0
27
143
87
119

0
29
171
97
146

40

60

99

126

163

190

221

253

289

332

384

444

5
27
9
0
14

10
35
20
0
18

23
50
37
1
19

37
52
53
1
37

58
55
74
2
60

75
59
86
5
68

97
62
100
12
76

119
65
109
17
86

145
67
120
24
97

171
66
133
33
104

194
62
149
43
106

220
58
167
56
109

2
57

2
85

3
132

3
184

4
254

6
297

7
354

11
406

17
470

24
531

31
586

41
651

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.3
0.2

0.2
0.8
0.4

0.5
1.3
0.9

1.0
1.8
1.5

1.6
2.3
2.2

2.6
3.0
3.3

3.6
3.6
4.2

4.9
4.2
5.4

6.5
4.9
6.7

8.3
5.5
8.1

1.7
6.7
12.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

38.5

65.9

97.8

135.6

179.6

231.2

292.0

363.2

446.3

542.8

371
1680
0
1745
1684
5480

390
1677
0
1712
1700
5480

400
1693
0
1686
1701
5480

409
1706
47
1678
1639
5480

419
1719
103
1680
1558
5480

430
1732
134
1685
1499
5480

440
1744
166
1689
1440
5480

451
1755
169
1689
1416
5480

462
1765
172
1688
1392
5480

474
1775
168
1687
1376
5480

486
1785
155
1686
1368
5480

498
1794
143
1685
1359
5480

1.88
0.71
2.59
99
1.3
19.3
19
8
7
449
80
10

2.47
0.42
2.89
109
1.3
23.4
32
12
10
391
94
12

3.23
0.26
3.49
121
1.3
34.2
49
16
13
380
107
14

3.83
0.24
4.06
126
1.4
42.0
69
21
18
405
107
15

4.52
0.22
4.75
131
1.5
51.4
98
26
23
434
107
17

5.34
0.24
5.58
135
1.6
61.5
139
34
29
472
104
19

6.29
0.27
6.57
140
1.7
73.5
181
39
32
516
102
21

7.39
0.30
7.69
143
1.8
67.8
233
45
37
569
97
24

8.64
0.29
8.93
145
1.9
48.3
295
50
41
636
91
27

10.10
0.28
10.38
148
2.0
34.5
336
52
43
714
86
30

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 115 of 241

0.72
0.73
1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
3
396
48
7

1.01
0.82
1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5
404
55
8

A2G IMAGE
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A2G IMAGE
1990
Population

Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

5297

8225

11298

14719

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

21.0
0.0

45.3
0.0

111.3
0.0

248.5
0.0

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

50
40
98
50
35
0
272

40
44
145
108
91
0
428

22
65
203
229
262
0
781

16
99
191
341
444
0
1092

Primary Energy
EJ
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
Non-commercial
NTE (Nuclear/Solar) & Hydro
Total

82
116
78

101
175
187

253
235
396

237
178
458

1
6
17
344

6
40
37
546

46
22
107
1059

71
16
344
1304

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.1
0.1
0.1

2.3
4.3
3.8

7.4
10.5
12.2

21.6
21.5
35.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Land Use

Million ha
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 116 of 241

5.99
1.11
7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38
879
139
31

75.3

6.90
1.07
7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40
877
141
32

165.3

7.98
2.04
10.02
408
9.6
69.9
785
41
50
812
154
37

275.8

9.07
3.01
12.08
493
12.2
70.7
292
51
64
748
166
42

408.2

12.10
2.29
14.39
537
12.7
83.8
258
64
75
713
165
55

563.6

15.14
1.56
16.70
581
13.3
96.9
291
77
89
678
163
68

742.1

18.17
0.84
19.01
625
13.9
110.0
312
92
104
642
161
82

932.8

18.05
1.07
19.12
653
14.5
104.9
384
113
122
669
167
80

1124.5

17.93
1.30
19.23
681
15.0
99.7
457
129
129
696
172
78

1317.3

17.81
1.53
19.34
709
15.6
94.6
549
148
135
723
177
77

1511.3

17.69
1.76
19.45
737
16.2
89.4
662
168
153
750
183
75

1706.3

17.57
1.99
19.56
765
16.7
84.3
753
178
165
776
188
73

A2G IMAGE

Page 117 of 241

A2G IMAGE
OECD90 - A2G IMAGE
Population

1990
Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

801

953

1068

1393

16.5

30.7

57.7

109.6

6
7
51
34
21

4
7
55
49
46

2
9
56
66
70

2
17
57
103
111

119

161

201

289

Primary Energy
EJ
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
Non-commercial
NTE (Nuclear/Solar) & Hydro
Total

24
55
51

17
62
96

23
58
119

36
50
151

1
6
10
147

2
4
22
202

6
2
40
248

11
2
80
330

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.1
0.1

0.5
1.1
2.1

1.0
2.4
5.1

2.5
4.4
11.4

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

63.7

100.3

139.8

181.8

226.2

273.2

322.9

375.4

430.6

488.4

2.83
0.00
2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
23
179
42
13

3.20
0.00
3.20
74
2.6
17.0
57
13
23
161
36
12

3.40
0.11
3.51
88
2.8
13.4
107
14
25
123
35
11

3.60
0.22
3.82
103
3.0
9.8
103
14
28
85
34
9

3.77
0.30
4.07
107
3.0
10.7
111
14
29
87
36
10

3.95
0.37
4.32
111
3.1
11.6
116
14
29
89
37
11

4.12
0.45
4.57
116
3.2
12.6
125
14
28
91
38
11

4.29
0.55
4.84
121
3.3
13.7
130
13
26
96
40
12

4.45
0.66
5.11
127
3.4
14.8
135
11
20
102
43
13

4.62
0.76
5.38
133
3.6
15.9
142
13
12
107
45
13

4.78
0.87
5.65
139
3.7
17.1
151
15
14
113
48
14

4.95
0.98
5.92
144
3.8
18.2
160
17
16
118
50
14

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 118 of 241

A2G IMAGE
REF - A2G IMAGE
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

413

421

391

405

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.0

1.5

3.5

6.4

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

2
11
18
12
7

1
5
15
10
10

1
3
12
12
18

0
4
9
12
21

50

41

46

46

26
26
21

12
21
19

14
21
27

12
12
21

0
2
2
78

0
1
4
58

1
1
9
71

2
0
14
61

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.5
0.5
0.5

0.9
1.1
1.2

1.6
1.8
2.6

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

18.9

24.2

28.7

34.0

39.9

46.2

52.1

57.8

63.1

68.2

1.30
0.00
1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8
69
16
5

0.91
0.00
0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6
41
13
3

0.65
0.01
0.66
44
0.6
7.5
8
8
7
25
12
3

0.39
0.02
0.41
50
0.6
4.1
13
10
10
10
11
3

0.44
0.05
0.49
49
0.6
4.1
20
14
12
11
10
4

0.49
0.08
0.56
48
0.6
4.2
27
17
15
12
10
4

0.53
0.10
0.64
48
0.6
4.3
31
20
19
13
10
4

0.47
0.14
0.61
47
0.6
4.2
37
25
24
12
10
4

0.41
0.17
0.58
47
0.6
4.0
41
30
28
11
10
3

0.35
0.21
0.55
46
0.7
3.9
44
35
32
10
10
3

0.28
0.24
0.52
45
0.7
3.8
48
40
36
10
10
2

0.22
0.28
0.49
45
0.7
3.7
52
42
38
9
10
2

Primary Energy
EJ
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
Non-commercial
NTE (Nuclear/Solar) & Hydro
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 119 of 241

A2G IMAGE
ASIA - A2G IMAGE
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2790

4294

5746

7284

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.4

5.8

25.6

69.0

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

28
20
14
2
4

25
26
36
35
24

11
35
62
110
113

7
48
39
144
170

68

145

331

409

29
17
3

56
40
53

147
50
172

114
20
170

0
28
2
79

4
25
6
184

28
11
41
449

26
7
141
477

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

1.2
0.8
0.8

4.1
2.2
4.0

11.9
3.8
13.8

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

41.6

72.1

114.3

173.0

248.1

329.8

408.3

483.6

555.7

624.6

1.15
0.37
1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4
235
33
7

1.78
0.26
2.03
125
2.6
25.3
5
5
7
270
37
9

2.48
0.23
2.72
156
3.0
28.4
11
11
11
252
40
12

3.19
0.21
3.40
186
3.4
31.5
18
15
16
235
42
16

4.78
0.27
5.04
216
3.8
35.5
27
20
20
269
46
23

6.36
0.32
6.69
245
4.2
39.6
38
25
27
304
51
31

7.95
0.38
8.33
275
4.5
43.6
54
32
34
339
55
39

7.62
0.39
8.01
285
4.6
38.1
77
42
43
346
56
37

7.29
0.40
7.69
295
4.8
32.6
100
49
49
353
56
35

6.96
0.41
7.37
305
4.9
27.1
130
56
55
360
57
32

6.63
0.42
7.05
316
5.0
21.5
167
64
62
368
57
30

6.30
0.43
6.73
326
5.1
16.0
204
67
67
375
58
28

Primary Energy
EJ
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
Non-commercial
NTE (Nuclear/Solar) & Hydro
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 120 of 241

A2G IMAGE
ALM - A2G IMAGE
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1293

2557

4093

5637

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

2.1

7.3

24.5

63.5

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

14
2
15
3
2

10
6
40
14
12

9
17
74
42
61

7
30
87
83
142

35

81

203

349

4
18
3

16
51
19

69
107
78

75
96
117

0
14
3
41

1
10
5
103

11
9
18
291

32
7
109
437

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
1.9
0.4

1.4
4.9
1.8

5.6
11.5
7.6

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

41.2

79.1

125.3

174.9

228.0

283.6

341.2

400.6

461.9

525.1

0.72
0.73
1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
3
396
48
7

1.01
0.82
1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5
404
55
8

1.45
1.69
3.14
120
3.2
17.6
19
8
7
412
67
11

1.89
2.56
4.45
154
5.2
22.4
32
12
10
419
79
14

3.12
1.67
4.79
165
5.3
30.4
49
16
13
346
72
18

4.34
0.79
5.13
176
5.5
38.5
69
21
18
273
65
23

5.56
-0.09
5.47
187
5.6
46.6
98
26
23
201
58
28

5.67
-0.01
5.66
200
5.9
45.9
139
34
29
215
60
28

5.78
0.07
5.85
212
6.2
45.3
181
39
32
230
63
28

5.89
0.15
6.04
225
6.5
44.7
233
45
37
245
66
28

6.00
0.23
6.22
237
6.8
44.0
295
50
41
260
68
28

6.11
0.31
6.41
250
7.1
43.4
336
52
43
274
71
29

Primary Energy
EJ
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
Non-commercial
NTE (Nuclear/Solar) & Hydro
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 121 of 241

A2 MESSAGE
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A2 MESSAGE
1990
Population

Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

5262

6170

7188

8206

9170

10715

11296

12139

12587

13828

14743

15068

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

20.9
25.7

25.2
31.2

31.9
39.7

40.5
50.5

51.2
63.3

72.3
82.2

81.6
106.0

101.9
132.2

114.1
155.2

159.3
180.1

218.4
208.0

242.8
225.6

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

38
42
111
41
35
8
275

23
39
137
51
46
11
306

26
27
181
58
60
17
368

24
20
235
68
82
28
457

22
13
279
85
109
44
552

20
24
284
105
147
65
645

18
32
296
132
184
88
750

17
30
302
162
230
113
855

16
21
352
145
277
137
947

16
9
391
156
337
158
1066

15
7
456
143
397
180
1197

15
6
501
161
459
200
1342

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

91
128
71
7
46

83
171
86
9
41

97
208
108
13
42

122
253
135
17
50

157
274
173
22
69

211
244
208
34
97

273
205
245
47
141

342
146
292
62
194

458
109
268
79
245

569
86
285
97
271

735
64
281
116
287

871
47
289
136
299

8
352

14
404

21
489

34
610

50
745

77
871

103
1014

132
1168

165
1323

196
1504

228
1710

280
1921

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.9
1.5
0.8

1.7
3.2
1.6

2.7
5.3
2.7

3.9
7.8
4.0

5.5
10.5
5.8

7.6
13.0
7.9

10.3
15.0
10.3

13.7
16.5
13.2

18.3
17.6
15.9

24.0
18.4
18.8

31.4
19.1
21.6

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

162.5

267.0

391.0

530.7

683.4

848.2

1027.2

1227.6

1459.2

1725.2

5.99
1.11
7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38
879
139
31

6.90
1.07
7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40
877
141
32

8.34
1.11
9.45
363
6.4
68.3
785
41
50
972
170
38

10.32
1.14
11.46
418
6.3
79.8
292
51
64
1100
204
47

12.28
1.05
13.33
489
6.3
94.2
258
64
75
1246
229
56

13.66
0.96
14.62
592
6.6
106.5
291
77
89
1396
239
61

15.11
0.81
15.91
671
6.8
103.6
312
92
104
1585
242
66

16.46
0.59
17.05
743
7.1
99.0
384
113
122
1810
241
71

18.38
0.38
18.76
803
7.3
83.8
457
129
129
2075
247
78

21.10
0.22
21.32
900
7.6
74.3
549
148
135
2250
262
87

24.90
0.10
25.00
993
7.9
68.1
662
168
153
2426
281
97

28.21
-0.02
28.19
1069
8.1
68.7
753
178
165
2646
311
110

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A2 land-use data
Page 122 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (IS92f)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A2 run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A2 run

A2 MESSAGE

Page 123 of 241

A2 MESSAGE
OECD90 - A2 MESSAGE

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

851

923

975

1027

1072

1131

1151

1202

1228

1323

1451

1496

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

15.3
14.1

18.7
16.0

22.3
18.5

26.0
20.8

30.0
23.1

37.1
28.2

39.9
30.8

46.3
36.2

50.0
39.0

63.1
49.5

80.7
63.8

87.6
69.8

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
13
66
22
22
1
124

0
9
72
26
28
1
136

0
5
88
22
35
1
151

0
3
102
16
43
4
168

0
1
105
19
53
7
185

0
1
99
23
65
10
197

0
0
88
28
75
14
205

0
0
78
33
88
18
217

0
0
79
27
101
25
232

0
0
80
26
117
28
251

0
0
85
26
133
33
277

0
0
94
27
153
39
314

38
72
33
6
6

40
89
38
7
6

47
99
42
9
6

56
105
43
11
8

71
96
52
13
12

91
83
52
17
16

112
62
58
19
21

126
41
77
25
29

151
31
80
31
32

195
23
72
36
35

232
16
81
42
37

240
11
99
50
41

4
159

6
185

7
209

11
233

15
259

21
280

27
300

32
328

39
363

43
404

48
457

55
496

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.8
0.4

0.8
1.7
0.7

1.3
2.7
1.2

1.8
3.7
1.6

2.5
4.7
2.1

3.4
5.5
2.6

4.6
6.1
3.2

5.9
6.5
4.0

7.7
6.8
4.8

10.1
7.1
5.5

13.0
7.2
6.3

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

64.2

102.2

143.7

188.3

235.3

284.9

339.0

401.1

473.9

553.5

2.83
0.00
2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
23
179
42
13

3.20
0.00
3.20
74
2.6
17.0
57
13
23
161
36
12

3.61
0.00
3.61
72
2.6
11.0
107
14
25
170
37
14

3.98
0.00
3.98
72
2.5
5.9
103
14
28
180
36
15

4.33
0.00
4.33
78
2.5
4.0
111
14
29
185
35
16

4.58
0.00
4.58
89
2.5
3.1
116
14
29
200
35
17

4.83
0.00
4.83
99
2.6
2.1
125
14
28
208
30
17

5.08
0.00
5.08
111
2.6
1.9
130
13
26
226
27
18

5.74
0.00
5.74
126
2.7
2.8
135
11
20
223
25
19

6.70
0.00
6.70
149
2.7
3.9
142
13
12
229
24
20

7.86
0.00
7.86
176
2.8
5.1
151
15
14
233
24
22

8.06
0.00
8.06
175
2.9
5.7
160
17
16
243
26
25

Population

Million

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A2 land-use data

Page 124 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (IS92f)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A2 run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A2 run

A2 MESSAGE
REF - A2 MESSAGE

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

418

421

438

454

473

507

519

551

568

622

684

706

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

0.9
2.6

0.8
2.6

1.0
3.2

1.4
4.2

2.1
5.0

3.2
6.2

3.7
9.0

4.9
10.9

5.7
13.0

8.5
12.5

12.5
12.8

14.2
13.8

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
9
15
14
6
7
50

0
4
13
14
6
6
43

0
3
15
16
7
5
46

0
2
18
17
9
7
53

0
1
22
18
11
10
62

0
0
21
18
15
13
67

0
0
21
20
19
14
74

0
0
24
19
24
18
85

0
0
29
18
27
21
94

0
0
33
18
31
22
104

0
0
38
19
37
24
117

0
0
45
19
43
24
131

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

19
20
27
1
2

11
18
28
1
1

11
18
30
1
1

13
20
33
0
1

17
21
39
1
2

18
18
45
1
4

23
13
52
2
6

34
12
47
4
11

47
9
35
5
18

50
6
39
7
28

64
5
45
9
26

82
2
51
10
24

1
70

1
60

2
62

3
70

5
84

8
95

10
107

13
121

16
131

19
148

22
170

27
195

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.3

0.3
0.4
0.6

0.4
0.6
0.9

0.5
0.8
1.2

0.7
1.0
1.6

0.9
1.2
2.0

1.2
1.3
2.6

1.5
1.4
3.0

2.0
1.5
3.4

2.5
1.6
3.8

3.1
1.6
4.2

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

20.4

30.7

42.7

56.2

71.0

87.2

104.7

122.8

143.6

169.3

1.30
0.00
1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8
69
16
5

0.91
0.00
0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6
41
13
3

0.96
0.00
0.96
41
0.6
10.9
8
8
7
43
16
3

1.09
0.00
1.09
44
0.6
12.5
13
10
10
51
19
4

1.31
0.00
1.31
51
0.7
15.3
20
14
12
61
21
5

1.40
0.00
1.40
58
0.7
18.2
27
17
15
68
24
5

1.54
0.00
1.54
66
0.7
20.7
31
20
19
75
23
6

1.71
0.00
1.71
69
0.7
23.3
37
25
24
82
20
7

1.78
0.00
1.78
72
0.7
18.2
41
30
28
100
20
7

1.86
0.00
1.86
78
0.8
11.8
44
35
32
114
21
7

2.30
0.00
2.30
94
0.8
6.2
48
40
36
145
25
8

2.84
0.00
2.84
113
0.8
6.4
52
42
38
183
32
9

Population

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A2 land-use data

Page 125 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (IS92f)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A2 run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A2 run

A2 MESSAGE
ASIA - A2 MESSAGE
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2791

3295

3801

4308

4779

5500

5764

6137

6333

6858

7214

7340

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.4
5.3

2.3
7.4

3.5
10.3

5.3
14.3

7.6
19.5

12.6
27.3

15.0
36.8

20.0
47.5

23.1
57.1

34.9
66.1

50.5
74.7

57.1
79.9

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

24
19
13
2
4
1
62

16
19
26
4
6
4
75

17
15
42
8
10
7
100

17
12
61
17
17
11
135

15
9
85
21
25
17
172

14
21
93
19
35
25
207

12
29
105
26
46
35
252

11
28
104
46
58
44
291

11
18
119
43
75
53
319

10
6
133
53
96
62
360

10
4
155
49
114
71
402

9
2
180
45
131
78
445

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

30
15
3
0
24

27
31
7
1
21

33
47
15
2
24

42
67
23
3
29

54
86
27
5
36

82
80
23
8
47

104
71
29
13
63

128
47
50
17
77

187
27
47
22
77

235
16
56
29
79

310
10
49
34
82

390
4
41
39
84

1
74

3
90

6
125

9
173

14
222

22
262

31
312

42
361

57
417

73
489

81
566

90
648

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.2
0.0

0.6
0.5
0.1

0.9
1.0
0.3

1.3
1.6
0.5

1.9
2.5
0.7

2.7
3.3
1.0

3.7
4.0
1.2

4.9
4.5
1.8

6.9
4.8
2.2

9.4
4.9
2.8

12.8
5.0
3.3

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

41.1

71.3

109.2

153.2

202.0

255.3

316.5

389.3

477.3

583.8

1.15
0.37
1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4
235
33
7

1.78
0.26
2.03
125
2.6
25.3
5
5
7
270
37
9

2.36
0.26
2.62
153
2.4
27.8
11
11
11
335
49
12

3.16
0.27
3.42
190
2.4
36.7
18
15
16
422
63
16

3.93
0.22
4.15
232
2.5
44.3
27
20
20
497
72
19

4.48
0.17
4.66
283
2.6
52.9
38
25
27
538
73
21

4.97
0.12
5.10
319
2.7
47.2
54
32
34
589
75
23

5.48
0.09
5.57
356
2.9
40.7
77
42
43
653
82
25

6.61
0.05
6.66
394
3.0
30.8
100
49
49
746
91
28

7.90
0.01
7.91
444
3.1
27.5
130
56
55
859
102
33

9.72
-0.03
9.69
487
3.2
26.8
167
64
62
968
113
38

11.69
-0.08
11.62
523
3.3
26.8
204
67
67
1107
128
43

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A2 land-use data

Page 126 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (IS92f)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A2 run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A2 run

A2 MESSAGE
ALM - A2 MESSAGE
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1222

1530

1974

2417

2846

3578

3862

4250

4458

5025

5394

5526

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

2.4
3.8

3.4
5.2

5.1
7.7

7.8
11.2

11.5
15.7

19.3
20.4

23.0
29.4

30.6
37.5

35.4
46.1

52.9
52.0

74.7
56.7

83.8
62.2

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

14
1
17
4
3
0
39

8
7
26
6
5
1
53

9
4
36
11
8
3
71

7
3
54
19
14
6
101

6
2
68
27
20
10
134

6
2
71
45
33
18
174

6
3
83
58
45
25
219

6
2
96
64
61
33
262

6
2
125
57
75
39
303

6
3
145
59
92
45
350

6
3
178
50
113
52
402

6
3
183
70
133
59
454

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

5
21
8
0
14

5
34
13
1
13

7
44
22
1
12

11
62
36
2
12

15
71
55
4
18

19
62
89
7
31

34
59
107
12
50

53
46
119
17
78

73
42
107
21
117

90
41
118
26
129

129
34
107
31
141

159
30
98
37
151

2
49

3
69

7
93

11
134

16
179

26
234

35
296

45
358

53
412

60
463

75
517

107
582

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.3
0.1

0.1
0.6
0.2

0.2
1.1
0.4

0.3
1.7
0.8

0.4
2.4
1.4

0.6
3.0
2.2

0.9
3.6
3.3

1.4
4.1
4.5

1.8
4.5
5.5

2.1
4.9
6.7

2.5
5.2
7.8

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

36.8

62.9

95.4

133.0

175.1

220.8

267.1

314.3

364.3

418.5

0.72
0.73
1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
3
396
48
7

1.01
0.82
1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5
404
55
8

1.40
0.85
2.25
99
0.8
15.6
19
8
7
424
68
10

2.10
0.87
2.97
112
0.7
21.7
32
12
10
448
86
12

2.71
0.83
3.54
128
0.7
27.6
49
16
13
503
101
15

3.19
0.79
3.98
163
0.7
29.4
69
21
18
591
108
18

3.77
0.68
4.45
187
0.8
30.6
98
26
23
712
113
20

4.18
0.51
4.69
207
0.9
30.2
139
34
29
848
112
22

4.25
0.33
4.58
212
1.0
29.1
181
39
32
1007
112
24

4.65
0.20
4.85
229
1.0
28.1
233
45
37
1048
115
27

5.02
0.13
5.16
235
1.1
27.0
295
50
41
1081
119
29

5.61
0.06
5.67
259
1.1
26.9
336
52
43
1113
125
32

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A2 land-use data

Page 127 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (IS92f)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A2 run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A2 run

A2 MINICAM
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A2 MINICAM
1990
Population

Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

5293

6208

7174

8192

9250

10284

11296

12238

13108

13905

14508

15124

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

20.7
na

27.4
na

35.4
na

44.7
na

55.6
na

69.5
na

86.4
na

108.7
na

135.2
na

165.9
na

204.1
na

246.6
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
45
121
52
35
0
253

0
58
125
62
53
0
299

0
73
131
72
78
0
353

0
88
139
80
109
0
416

0
100
136
82
144
0
462

0
114
150
77
190
0
532

0
131
183
67
246
0
628

0
131
216
64
320
0
732

0
136
257
66
410
0
869

0
145
306
71
517
0
1039

0
150
354
66
643
0
1214

0
155
403
62
769
0
1388

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

88
131
70
24
0

117
135
84
25
6

144
139
113
30
11

170
144
155
39
17

239
111
173
53
25

325
91
181
71
37

429
84
179
93
52

529
69
186
105
77

629
68
201
123
99

729
79
222
148
116

858
72
202
181
139

988
64
183
214
163

24
336

24
392

27
465

31
556

39
640

52
757

70
907

108
1074

153
1272

206
1501

279
1732

353
1964

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.1
0.1
0.1

1.2
1.5
0.9

2.5
2.8
1.9

4.0
4.3
3.2

6.3
5.4
4.9

9.2
6.5
6.6

12.8
7.3
8.4

17.9
8.1
10.3

23.7
8.8
12.2

30.3
9.5
14.3

38.6
10.2
16.4

46.9
11.0
18.4

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

160.8

260.5

375.7

506.4

656.9

829.9

1026.2

1246.9

1494.4

1771.9

1472
3209
0
4173
4310
13164

1481
3348
4
4214
4118
13164

1531
3554
8
4137
3934
13164

1620
3828
15
3942
3759
13164

1689
4074
38
3685
3678
13164

1729
4274
75
3503
3584
13164

1739
4427
126
3396
3476
13164

1676
4373
201
3591
3323
13164

1629
4348
251
3717
3220
13164

1598
4351
277
3772
3166
13164

1585
4411
336
3636
3195
13164

1573
4471
396
3500
3224
13164

5.99
1.11

6.90
1.07

8.06
1.06

9.40
1.44

10.81
1.38

12.77
1.18

15.24
0.91

17.62
0.82

20.34
0.48

23.41
-0.09

26.28
-0.09

29.39
-0.09

7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38

7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40

9.12
348
7.9
81.1
785
41
50

10.83
381
8.8
82.7
292
51
64

12.19
415
9.7
91.4
258
64
75

13.96
452
10.8
100.7
291
77
89

16.15
485
11.7
110.6
312
92
104

18.44
508
12.1
112.1
384
113
122

20.83
540
12.7
108.7
457
129
129

23.32
580
13.5
100.2
549
148
135

26.19
621
14.6
89.7
662
168
153

29.30
663
15.6
79.3
753
178
165

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 128 of 241

A2 MINICAM

Page 129 of 241

A2 MINICAM
OECD90 - A2 MINICAM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

838

916

980

1030

1053

1116

1151

1197

1253

1319

1405

1493

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

16.3
na

20.5
na

24.5
na

28.3
na

29.6
na

34.2
na

38.4
na

42.5
na

47.6
na

53.8
na

62.4
na

71.6
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
10
72
27
22
0
130

0
12
72
35
28
0
147

0
13
70
42
35
0
160

0
13
67
47
43
0
170

0
13
62
46
47
0
167

0
14
53
39
59
0
166

0
16
57
32
69
0
173

0
15
57
28
74
0
174

0
14
61
27
83
0
185

0
15
68
28
96
0
206

0
15
76
26
112
0
229

0
16
83
24
128
0
251

40
76
34
20
0

46
76
46
15
2

47
73
62
13
4

43
68
82
14
4

51
56
82
14
5

75
28
76
16
8

94
18
68
18
11

112
10
63
18
14

131
5
62
19
16

152
5
63
22
18

194
4
52
27
22

236
3
40
32
26

12
182

11
196

10
209

10
221

10
218

12
216

14
223

18
236

24
259

31
292

42
341

53
390

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.1
0.0

0.5
0.8
0.5

0.9
1.6
1.0

1.4
2.3
1.7

1.7
2.5
2.1

2.6
3.2
3.3

3.4
3.4
4.0

4.5
3.5
4.7

5.7
3.6
5.3

7.1
3.7
5.9

9.0
3.7
6.5

10.8
3.8
7.0

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

63.8

100.3

137.7

175.7

215.6

257.8

302.3

349.7

402.2

461.8

408
796
0
921
998
3123

414
819
4
930
955
3123

427
854
6
921
915
3123

447
899
8
892
875
3123

452
916
13
875
866
3123

461
961
29
836
835
3123

457
984
41
829
811
3123

440
979
50
877
777
3123

429
978
56
906
754
3123

424
981
60
916
742
3123

419
989
72
894
749
3123

414
996
85
872
756
3123

2.83
0.00

3.20
0.00

3.42
0.13

3.53
0.21

3.54
0.20

3.71
0.16

3.99
0.14

4.17
0.14

4.51
0.07

4.98
-0.07

5.68
-0.09

6.44
-0.11

2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
23

3.20
74
2.6
17.0
57
13
23

3.54
81
2.7
16.2
107
14
25

3.74
88
2.9
8.3
103
14
28

3.74
90
3.0
7.5
111
14
29

3.86
99
3.3
6.6
116
14
29

4.12
105
3.5
5.8
125
14
28

4.31
114
3.5
5.4
130
13
26

4.57
123
3.6
5.4
135
11
20

4.91
133
3.8
5.7
142
13
12

5.60
148
4.0
6.5
151
15
14

6.33
163
4.2
7.3
160
17
16

Population

Million

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 130 of 241

A2 MINICAM
REF - A2 MINICAM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

428

430

439

455

474

495

519

550

585

623

664

707

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.1
na

1.1
na

1.2
na

1.5
na

1.8
na

2.2
na

2.7
na

3.7
na

4.9
na

6.4
na

8.3
na

10.5
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
13
18
19
6
0
56

0
10
12
15
8
0
44

0
8
8
12
11
0
39

0
7
7
10
14
0
39

0
7
7
10
16
0
41

0
8
7
9
20
0
43

0
9
8
7
24
0
48

0
9
9
7
32
0
57

0
9
11
7
41
0
68

0
9
14
8
51
0
81

0
9
16
7
62
0
94

0
9
17
7
73
0
106

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

18
20
26
3
0

17
14
20
4
1

17
10
18
5
1

18
9
20
6
2

34
3
20
7
3

53
0
19
8
4

76
0
17
10
6

123
0
17
11
9

169
0
19
12
12

214
0
21
14
14

290
0
18
17
17

367
0
16
19
19

3
70

3
58

3
55

4
59

5
72

6
91

8
116

11
171

16
227

21
283

28
370

34
457

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.2

0.4
0.3
0.4

0.5
0.4
0.6

0.8
0.4
0.8

1.3
0.4
1.0

1.9
0.4
1.2

3.0
0.4
1.4

4.5
0.4
1.6

6.3
0.4
1.8

9.1
0.4
1.9

11.8
0.4
2.1

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

19.8

28.6

39.0

51.8

67.5

88.5

116.8

151.9

196.1

252.6

284
395
0
1007
691
2377

297
410
0
1016
655
2377

317
444
1
995
621
2377

345
498
2
942
590
2377

368
548
7
879
576
2377

382
585
14
836
559
2377

388
611
23
815
541
2377

368
586
39
871
514
2377

353
573
49
906
496
2377

345
572
54
919
487
2377

348
594
64
879
493
2377

350
615
74
839
498
2377

1.30
0.00

0.91
0.00

0.81
0.03

0.83
0.09

1.05
0.10

1.34
0.08

1.68
0.03

2.42
0.06

3.15
0.03

3.90
-0.06

5.03
-0.03

6.31
0.00

1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8

0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6

0.84
45
0.7
10.4
8
8
7

0.92
55
0.8
10.0
13
10
10

1.16
65
1.0
11.8
20
14
12

1.42
74
1.1
13.6
27
17
15

1.72
83
1.3
15.4
31
20
19

2.47
99
1.3
16.1
37
25
24

3.18
118
1.3
16.4
41
30
28

3.84
140
1.4
16.2
44
35
32

5.00
171
1.6
14.9
48
40
36

6.31
203
1.7
13.6
52
42
38

Population

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 131 of 241

A2 MINICAM
ASIA - A2 MINICAM
Population

1990
Million

2790

2000
3296

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

3802

4308

4817

5302

5763

6180

6558

6898

7133

7372

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.4
na

3.1
na

5.5
na

8.7
na

13.0
na

18.3
na

24.6
na

33.0
na

43.1
na

54.8
na

69.1
na

85.2
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
20
14
2
4
0
40

0
33
20
5
11
0
70

0
46
26
8
22
0
103

0
60
32
11
37
0
139

0
68
35
11
49
0
163

0
78
42
10
67
0
197

0
88
54
10
88
0
240

0
88
66
10
120
0
284

0
92
80
11
159
0
341

0
99
96
12
204
0
412

0
102
112
12
259
0
485

0
106
128
11
314
0
559

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

26
16
3
1
0

48
22
9
4
2

71
28
18
8
5

96
34
31
13
8

121
28
38
19
12

154
24
43
27
17

192
22
48
38
23

225
16
52
43
33

252
15
58
50
41

273
17
67
61
48

273
14
63
75
57

272
10
58
89
65

3
49

4
89

5
135

6
187

9
227

15
280

23
345

38
407

57
474

80
546

111
591

142
637

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.5
0.2
0.1

1.1
0.5
0.2

1.9
0.8
0.5

3.0
1.1
0.8

4.4
1.3
1.2

6.1
1.6
1.7

8.3
1.7
2.2

10.6
1.9
2.7

13.2
2.1
3.4

16.0
2.2
4.0

18.7
2.3
4.6

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

41.9

74.8

115.7

163.8

220.7

286.4

360.5

443.3

532.6

626.3

389
508
0
1168
664
2729

403
523
0
1141
630
2697

421
546
1
1100
599
2668

444
578
4
1043
570
2640

461
605
12
991
557
2626

472
630
22
944
542
2610

476
653
33
904
525
2592

462
659
47
899
501
2568

452
665
56
896
484
2553

445
670
60
895
476
2545

439
673
71
885
481
2550

433
676
83
876
486
2554

1.15
0.37

1.78
0.26

2.60
0.20

3.50
0.27

4.14
0.28

4.96
0.25

5.97
0.19

6.85
0.13

7.77
0.06

8.72
0.00

9.14
0.01

9.57
0.01

1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4

2.03
125
2.6
25.3
5
5
7

2.79
133
2.8
36.8
11
11
11

3.77
143
3.1
46.0
18
15
16

4.42
152
3.4
51.1
27
20
20

5.21
163
3.7
55.8
38
25
27

6.16
176
3.9
60.2
54
32
34

6.98
180
4.1
59.5
77
42
43

7.84
184
4.3
56.1
100
49
49

8.72
186
4.5
50.1
130
56
55

9.15
179
4.8
43.5
167
64
62

9.59
172
5.0
36.9
204
67
67

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 132 of 241

A2 MINICAM
ALM - A2 MINICAM
Population

1990
Million

1236

2000
1566

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1953

2399

2884

3372

3862

4311

4712

5065

5306

5552

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.9
na

2.8
na

4.3
na

6.2
na

9.9
na

14.7
na

20.7
na

29.5
na

39.5
na

50.9
na

64.3
na

79.3
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
2
17
5
3
0
27

0
3
22
7
6
0
38

0
5
27
10
10
0
52

0
7
33
13
16
0
68

0
11
37
17
28
0
93

0
15
48
19
45
0
126

0
19
65
18
65
0
167

0
20
83
19
94
0
216

0
22
104
20
128
0
274

0
23
128
23
166
0
340

0
24
151
21
210
0
406

0
25
174
20
254
0
472

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

4
20
7
0
0

6
23
10
2
1

9
28
15
4
1

13
33
22
6
2

26
35
34
12
4

44
38
42
19
8

67
44
46
27
12

69
43
53
33
22

77
48
62
41
30

91
57
72
50
36

101
54
70
62
44

112
51
68
74
53

5
35

6
48

8
66

11
89

15
126

20
171

26
223

40
261

56
313

74
380

98
430

123
480

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.2
0.1

0.1
0.5
0.2

0.2
0.8
0.4

0.5
1.1
0.7

0.9
1.5
1.1

1.4
1.9
1.5

2.1
2.4
2.0

2.8
2.8
2.6

3.6
3.3
3.3

4.6
3.9
4.0

5.6
4.4
4.7

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

35.2

56.9

83.3

115.0

153.0

197.1

246.7

302.1

363.5

431.1

391
1510
0
3641
1957
7499

368
1596
0
3585
1878
7427

365
1710
0
3478
1800
7353

384
1853
0
3318
1723
7279

403
1989
0
3161
1688
7241

414
2097
10
3028
1647
7196

418
2179
28
2920
1599
7145

405
2149
65
2930
1532
7081

394
2132
90
2936
1486
7038

384
2128
104
2939
1461
7016

379
2156
129
2890
1473
7027

375
2184
153
2841
1484
7037

0.72
0.73

1.01
0.82

1.24
0.70

1.54
0.87

2.08
0.80

2.77
0.69

3.61
0.54

4.18
0.49

4.91
0.32

5.81
0.04

6.42
0.02

7.07
0.00

1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
3

1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5

1.94
89
1.6
14.7
19
8
7

2.41
96
1.9
15.4
32
12
10

2.88
108
2.3
18.1
49
16
13

3.46
116
2.7
21.7
69
21
18

4.15
120
3.1
26.1
98
26
23

4.67
114
3.3
28.1
139
34
29

5.24
115
3.5
27.8
181
39
32

5.84
121
3.8
25.2
233
45
37

6.44
123
4.2
21.9
295
50
41

7.07
125
4.6
18.5
336
52
43

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 133 of 241

A2-A1 MINICAM
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A2-A1 MINICAM
1990
Population

Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

5293

6007

6762

7558

8332

9054

9723

10217

10696

11161

11620

12090

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

20.7
na

27.4
na

33.0
na

37.6
na

41.8
na

48.8
na

58.6
na

76.4
na

98.2
na

123.8
na

158.1
na

197.3
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
45
121
52
35
0
253

0
60
128
64
55
0
308

0
70
130
73
74
0
346

0
73
128
78
90
0
369

0
80
116
81
103
0
380

0
90
124
91
128
0
433

0
103
151
110
164
0
528

0
102
198
128
237
0
665

0
106
253
155
317
0
831

0
116
314
191
406
0
1027

0
125
381
208
523
0
1237

0
135
447
225
640
0
1447

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

88
131
70
24
0

121
138
87
27
6

136
138
111
30
10

133
133
142
32
13

148
114
149
37
16

167
118
171
47
18

189
145
209
64
22

196
200
263
95
34

213
260
328
123
44

239
327
405
149
51

266
395
444
214
55

294
464
483
278
59

24
336

24
403

27
452

31
485

36
499

43
564

51
679

70
857

92
1061

118
1289

151
1525

183
1761

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.1
0.1
0.1

1.2
1.5
0.9

2.5
2.9
1.9

3.8
4.2
3.1

5.3
5.4
4.6

6.9
6.6
6.3

8.6
7.9
8.1

10.6
9.8
10.6

12.6
12.1
13.6

14.8
14.9
17.1

17.5
18.7
21.5

20.1
22.5
25.8

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

157.1

241.6

326.7

415.4

516.8

634.7

771.7

936.4

1128.7

1345.1

1472
3209
0
4173
4310
13164

1461
3343
4
4214
4142
13164

1463
3464
8
4155
4074
13164

1478
3572
14
3995
4106
13164

1423
3545
16
4092
4088
13164

1359
3524
17
4252
4012
13164

1285
3508
18
4475
3878
13164

1214
3557
45
4571
3777
13164

1174
3703
65
4436
3787
13164

1165
3948
75
4069
3908
13164

1107
4091
71
3925
3970
13164

1050
4234
67
3782
4032
13164

5.99
1.11

6.90
1.07

7.62
0.76

7.89
0.62

8.13
0.37

8.89
0.35

10.46
0.58

12.40
0.13

14.83
0.04

17.77
0.31

20.28
0.10

23.00
-0.11

7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38

7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40

8.39
339
7.8
73.9
785
41
50

8.51
354
8.6
65.7
292
51
64

8.50
363
9.1
66.6
258
64
75

9.24
379
9.9
70.8
291
77
89

11.05
402
10.6
78.1
312
92
104

12.52
428
11.5
81.4
384
113
122

14.87
473
13.0
84.0
457
129
129

18.08
537
15.1
86.2
549
148
135

20.38
582
17.2
85.4
662
168
153

22.89
627
19.3
84.5
753
178
165

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 134 of 241

A2-A1 MINICAM

Page 135 of 241

A2-A1 MINICAM
OECD90 - A2-A1 MINICAM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

838

874

903

924

926

924

913

895

883

877

882

886

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

16.3
na

20.5
na

23.5
na

25.5
na

26.1
na

27.9
na

29.5
na

31.4
na

33.7
na

36.4
na

40.1
na

44.1
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
10
72
27
22
0
130

0
12
73
36
28
0
149

0
13
71
43
34
0
161

0
12
66
47
40
0
166

0
12
61
47
42
0
161

0
12
51
48
48
0
159

0
11
54
52
53
0
170

0
9
57
52
57
0
175

0
8
60
55
61
0
185

0
8
64
61
64
0
198

0
9
69
62
72
0
212

0
9
73
64
80
0
226

40
76
34
20
0

47
77
46
16
2

46
75
62
14
4

38
68
80
13
4

39
60
80
13
4

42
47
81
14
5

42
49
86
15
5

39
53
87
16
6

37
57
90
18
7

35
61
97
19
7

38
65
98
24
7

40
69
99
30
7

12
182

11
199

10
210

10
213

10
207

10
198

11
207

12
213

14
223

17
236

19
251

22
267

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.1
0.0

0.5
0.8
0.5

0.9
1.6
1.0

1.4
2.3
1.7

1.6
2.6
2.1

2.2
3.4
3.3

2.6
3.9
4.1

3.0
4.4
5.0

3.4
4.9
5.9

3.7
5.5
6.8

4.1
6.2
7.8

4.5
6.8
8.8

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

63.1

96.5

128.8

160.1

191.7

223.7

255.4

288.3

322.6

358.3

408
796
0
921
998
3123

408
819
4
931
961
3123

408
838
6
924
946
3123

406
854
7
902
954
3123

395
849
8
919
952
3123

365
840
9
976
933
3123

349
842
9
1020
903
3123

329
848
15
1048
882
3123

317
873
18
1029
886
3123

311
915
18
963
915
3123

285
930
16
962
930
3123

259
944
15
961
945
3123

2.83
0.00

3.20
0.00

3.37
0.03

3.33
-0.05

3.23
-0.05

3.10
-0.03

3.22
0.03

3.21
-0.06

3.28
-0.09

3.43
-0.05

3.58
-0.08

3.74
-0.11

2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
23

3.20
74
2.6
17.0
57
13
23

3.40
81
2.7
15.0
107
14
25

3.27
85
2.9
9.2
103
14
28

3.19
85
2.9
7.8
111
14
29

3.08
87
3.1
6.6
116
14
29

3.25
92
3.3
5.6
125
14
28

3.15
100
3.4
5.0
130
13
26

3.19
109
3.7
5.0
135
11
20

3.37
120
4.2
5.6
142
13
12

3.50
131
4.5
6.3
151
15
14

3.63
143
4.9
7.0
160
17
16

Population

Million

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 136 of 241

A2-A1 MINICAM
REF - A2-A1 MINICAM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

428

446

462

475

480

480

475

470

466

464

470

475

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.1
na

1.1
na

1.1
na

1.2
na

1.3
na

1.4
na

1.6
na

2.2
na

3.0
na

3.9
na

5.1
na

6.4
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
13
18
19
6
0
56

0
11
12
16
9
0
48

0
10
9
13
11
0
43

0
8
8
11
13
0
40

0
7
6
10
13
0
36

0
6
6
10
13
0
35

0
6
6
11
14
0
37

0
6
8
12
20
0
45

0
5
9
15
26
0
55

0
5
11
18
32
0
66

0
6
13
19
39
0
77

0
6
15
20
47
0
88

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

18
20
26
3
0

19
15
21
4
1

19
11
20
6
1

17
9
21
6
2

18
6
19
6
2

19
5
18
6
2

20
6
18
6
2

18
8
23
8
3

18
11
28
10
3

20
13
33
11
4

22
15
35
15
4

24
17
37
19
4

3
70

3
64

3
60

4
58

5
55

5
54

6
57

8
67

9
79

11
92

13
105

16
118

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.2

0.4
0.3
0.5

0.6
0.4
0.7

0.8
0.5
0.9

0.9
0.5
1.0

1.1
0.6
1.2

1.3
0.7
1.4

1.5
0.8
1.7

1.7
0.9
2.0

1.9
1.0
2.3

2.1
1.2
2.7

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

19.8

28.0

35.5

42.3

49.2

56.2

63.9

73.7

85.2

97.5

284
395
0
1007
691
2377

293
410
0
1016
659
2377

301
430
1
999
646
2377

310
458
2
956
652
2377

298
450
2
978
649
2377

281
441
2
1018
636
2377

260
428
2
1075
612
2377

247
436
6
1093
595
2377

244
473
9
1054
598
2377

251
539
9
958
621
2377

242
571
7
925
633
2377

232
604
5
891
644
2377

1.30
0.00

0.91
0.00

0.81
0.03

0.74
0.07

0.67
0.03

0.65
0.02

0.66
0.04

0.75
-0.04

0.88
-0.03

1.04
0.07

1.16
0.03

1.29
-0.02

1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8

0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6

0.83
43
0.7
10.3
8
8
7

0.81
49
0.8
8.9
13
10
10

0.70
51
0.9
8.8
20
14
12

0.66
55
0.9
8.8
27
17
15

0.70
61
1.0
8.8
31
20
19

0.71
67
1.1
9.3
37
25
24

0.84
78
1.3
9.8
41
30
28

1.11
94
1.6
10.1
44
35
32

1.19
107
1.9
10.3
48
40
36

1.27
120
2.2
10.5
52
42
38

Population

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 137 of 241

A2-A1 MINICAM
ASIA - A2-A1 MINICAM
Population

1990
Million

2790

2000
3193

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

3603

4022

4396

4723

5004

5179

5343

5496

5663

5833

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.4
na

3.1
na

4.5
na

5.6
na

6.9
na

9.6
na

13.6
na

22.0
na

31.9
na

43.4
na

58.1
na

75.1
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
20
14
2
4
0
40

0
34
21
6
12
0
72

0
43
24
7
19
0
93

0
48
24
8
24
0
104

0
54
24
8
28
0
114

0
63
30
10
40
0
143

0
76
41
15
59
0
191

0
77
62
21
100
0
260

0
80
84
29
145
0
338

0
88
107
39
193
0
426

0
94
132
43
250
0
517

0
99
156
47
306
0
608

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

26
16
3
1
0

49
22
10
4
2

63
26
16
7
4

68
26
21
8
6

75
24
24
11
7

87
28
34
17
9

105
39
51
27
11

112
64
79
45
18

124
90
109
60
24

141
115
140
75
29

154
140
154
105
31

168
165
168
135
34

3
49

4
92

5
121

6
136

8
148

11
186

15
249

25
344

37
444

51
550

67
652

83
753

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.5
0.2
0.1

1.0
0.5
0.2

1.7
0.7
0.4

2.4
1.0
0.6

3.2
1.2
0.9

4.2
1.6
1.3

5.3
2.1
2.1

6.5
2.9
3.0

7.8
3.9
4.2

9.3
5.3
5.7

10.8
6.6
7.2

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

40.2

65.7

92.8

122.9

160.1

206.6

263.7

333.5

415.0

506.3

389
508
0
1168
664
2729

399
523
0
1145
634
2701

406
535
1
1124
622
2689

411
545
4
1104
628
2693

403
548
5
1108
625
2689

390
554
6
1114
613
2677

373
562
7
1122
592
2657

351
570
21
1125
575
2642

339
583
32
1114
576
2644

336
601
39
1090
597
2663

327
621
39
1075
609
2672

319
641
38
1061
621
2680

1.15
0.37

1.78
0.26

2.27
0.17

2.48
0.18

2.66
0.10

3.19
0.07

4.08
0.09

5.10
0.03

6.27
0.02

7.59
0.08

8.59
0.04

9.65
0.00

1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4

2.03
125
2.6
25.3
5
5
7

2.44
129
2.8
31.5
11
11
11

2.66
128
3.0
30.8
18
15
16

2.76
131
3.2
32.3
27
20
20

3.27
133
3.4
36.0
38
25
27

4.17
136
3.7
41.9
54
32
34

5.13
139
3.9
43.4
77
42
43

6.29
146
4.3
43.8
100
49
49

7.67
159
4.9
43.1
130
56
55

8.63
168
5.5
40.1
167
64
62

9.64
176
6.1
37.1
204
67
67

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 138 of 241

A2-A1 MINICAM
ALM - A2-A1 MINICAM
Population

1990
Million

1236

2000
1494

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1795

2136

2528

2926

3331

3673

4004

4323

4605

4896

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.9
na

2.8
na

3.9
na

5.2
na

7.0
na

9.9
na

13.9
na

20.8
na

29.6
na

40.2
na

54.8
na

71.7
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
2
17
5
3
0
27

0
3
22
7
6
0
38

0
4
26
9
9
0
49

0
6
30
12
13
0
60

0
8
30
16
19
0
73

0
9
37
23
27
0
96

0
10
50
32
38
0
130

0
11
72
42
60
0
184

0
12
99
56
86
0
253

0
15
132
74
117
0
337

0
17
168
84
162
0
431

0
20
203
94
207
0
525

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

4
20
7
0
0

6
23
10
2
1

8
27
14
4
1

10
30
20
5
2

14
31
27
7
3

18
38
38
11
3

22
51
53
16
4

27
75
75
25
7

34
104
102
35
9

42
138
135
45
11

52
175
157
69
13

61
212
178
93
15

5
35

6
48

8
63

11
78

14
95

16
125

19
166

25
233

32
315

40
411

51
517

63
622

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.2
0.1

0.1
0.5
0.2

0.2
0.8
0.4

0.4
1.1
0.6

0.5
1.4
1.0

0.7
1.9
1.4

1.0
2.6
2.1

1.3
3.5
3.0

1.7
4.6
4.1

2.1
6.3
5.7

2.6
8.0
7.2

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

34.1

51.5

69.6

90.0

115.8

148.2

188.5

240.9

305.8

382.9

391
1510
0
3641
1957
7499

362
1592
0
3595
1887
7436

348
1660
0
3539
1859
7407

350
1716
0
3474
1872
7413

339
1703
0
3495
1864
7401

323
1690
0
3525
1830
7368

303
1676
0
3565
1771
7315

287
1702
3
3560
1725
7277

275
1775
6
3498
1727
7279

267
1892
9
3379
1775
7323

253
1969
10
3306
1799
7336

239
2045
10
3232
1822
7349

0.72
0.73

1.01
0.82

1.17
0.54

1.35
0.42

1.57
0.28

1.95
0.29

2.50
0.43

3.33
0.21

4.41
0.13

5.71
0.21

6.96
0.11

8.33
0.02

1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
3

1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5

1.71
87
1.6
14.1
19
8
7

1.77
91
1.9
13.7
32
12
10

1.85
96
2.1
14.7
49
16
13

2.24
104
2.4
16.4
69
21
18

2.92
113
2.7
18.9
98
26
23

3.54
123
3.1
20.6
139
34
29

4.54
140
3.7
22.4
181
39
32

5.92
164
4.5
24.4
233
45
37

7.07
176
5.3
25.7
295
50
41

8.35
187
6.1
27.0
336
52
43

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 139 of 241

B1 IMAGE
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B1 IMAGE
1990
Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)

Trillion US$
1990 US$/c

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100
7047

5280

6122

6892

7618

8196

8547

8708

8671

8484

8142

7663

21.0
3971.0

26.8
4372.0

37.3
5416.0

52.6
6900.0

73.1
8916.0

100.7
11783.0

135.6
15569.0

171.7
19803.0

208.5
24577.0

249.7
30667.0

290.1
37856.0

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

54
43
106
46
39
2
289

57
43
117
52
54
4
327

60
41
137
66
83
10
398

53
42
152
70
122
23
462

46
43
156
71
168
38
523

37
44
151
74
223
52
581

27
44
135
79
260
64
608

24
40
115
82
270
70
601

22
35
102
83
266
69
576

19
30
93
82
255
65
544

16
25
84
80
240
59
505

14
21
75
76
220
52
458

Primary Energy
EJ
Coal
Oil
Gas
Non-Fossil Electric
Biomass

105
129
62
8
3

109
141
71
14
4

120
176
108
22
11

134
206
138
33
29

163
230
153
49
54

181
236
166
73
77

167
228
173
105
95

133
199
168
132
102

101
167
154
151
99

76
143
136
163
90

58
119
121
168
79

44
99
103
165
67

61
368

68
407

71
508

66
606

61
710

54
788

46
813

44
778

42
715

41
650

39
584

36
514

Cumulative Resources Production ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

1.1
1.3
0.6

2.2
2.9
1.5

3.5
4.8
2.8

4.9
7.0
4.2

6.7
9.3
5.8

8.5
11.6
7.5

10.0
13.8
9.2

11.1
15.6
10.8

12.0
17.2
12.3

12.7
18.5
13.6

13.2
19.6
14.7

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

161.6

261.1

369.8

483.9

599.0

704.1

793.7

868.0

928.1

975.9

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

2.1

1.7

2.8

3.8

4.5

4.3

4.2

3.9

3.6

3.5

3.7

Land Use

Million ha
1436
3435
8
4277
3916
13071

1371
3316
10
4261
4114
13071

1445
3424
24
4179
3999
13071

1499
3404
68
4258
3843
13071

1516
3292
134
4274
3853
13071

1486
3052
209
4375
3950
13071

1429
2785
268
4551
4038
13071

1360
2500
294
4711
4207
13071

1288
2293
287
4897
4305
13071

1209
2142
262
5130
4327
13071

1124
2023
227
5349
4348
13071

5.99
1.11
7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38
879
139
31

6.90
1.07
7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40
877
141
32

8.50
0.78
9.28
349
7.5
73.9
784
29
36
789
141
36

10.00
0.63
10.63
377
8.1
74.6
291
32
37
751
140
40

11.20
-0.09
11.11
385
8.2
78.2
257
33
47
603
131
42

12.20
-0.48
11.72
381
8.3
78.5
298
37
58
531
123
43

11.70
-0.41
11.29
359
8.3
68.9
338
42
68
471
116
39

10.20
-0.46
9.74
342
7.7
55.8
337
47
71
459
111
34

8.60
-0.42
8.18
324
7.4
44.3
333
45
62
456
103
30

7.30
-0.60
6.70
293
7.0
36.1
327
43
46
426
99
26

6.10
-0.78
5.32
266
6.4
29.8
315
46
43
399
96
22

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 140 of 241

328.4
46598.0 NOT ppp-corrected

NOT use but Production

3.5 Net Ecosystem Production (NEP)

1038 Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species
1899 Permanent pasture: FAO category 'land for grass & fodder species'
194
5543
4398
13071

5.20
-0.97 Approximate calculation from complex land-use module
4.23
236
5.7
24.9
299
45
43
363
87
19

B1 IMAGE

Page 141 of 241

B1 IMAGE
OECD90 - B1 IMAGE

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100 Remarks

799

849

890

932

965

990

1001

1005

1009

1020

1029

1032

16.5
20648.9

20.2
23841.8

25.9
29100.0

32.4
34761.7

38.2
39587.5

43.9
44382.4

49.9
49810.4

55.4
55070.9

59.8
59257.3

66.3
65005.4

73.8
71721.0

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

5
8
57
24
24
2
120

5
7
60
27
36
3
137

5
7
60
28
47
5
152

4
6
58
27
54
8
159

4
6
51
27
58
13
159

4
6
41
27
58
18
153

3
6
32
27
57
21
146

3
5
25
28
55
22
138

3
5
20
28
52
22
130

3
5
19
28
51
20
125

2
4
17
28
50
19
121

2
4
16
28
49
17
116

Primary Energy
EJ
Coal
Oil
Gas
Non-Fossil Electric
Biomass

37
67
28
7
2

46
73
36
12
3

46
74
42
18
5

40
72
44
24
8

36
64
41
29
14

30
50
38
32
18

24
39
37
35
21

19
31
35
37
22

15
25
34
37
23

13
22
33
37
21

11
20
32
37
20

10
19
31
37
19

10
151

10
178

10
195

10
199

10
193

10
178

10
166

10
154

10
144

10
136

10
131

9
126

Cumulative Resources Production ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.3
0.3

0.8
0.7
0.6

1.2
1.1
1.1

1.7
1.5
1.5

2.1
1.9
1.9

2.5
2.3
2.2

2.9
2.9
2.5

3.1
3.5
2.8

3.4
4.0
3.0

3.6
4.5
3.2

3.8
4.9
3.4

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

63.1

96.4

126.6

152.1

173.3

190.4

204.7

217.1

228.3

238.6

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.6

0.8

1.1

1.2

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.3

Land Use

Million ha
379
785
3
1115
956
3238

354
704
1
1165
1015
3238

344
619
2
1215
1058
3238

349
553
8
1259
1069
3238

348
498
16
1299
1077
3238

349
459
27
1328
1076
3238

352
428
36
1351
1072
3238

351
418
42
1361
1065
3238

347
408
42
1378
1063
3238

345
402
37
1401
1054
3238

343
396
31
1423
1045
3238

2.83
0.00
2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
24
179
42
13

3.20
0.00
3.20
74
2.6
17.0
58
13
23
161
36
12

3.30
0.10
3.40
75
2.6
11.8
108
12
16
153
35
12

3.20
0.06
3.26
72
2.6
7.9
103
10
5
137
33
10

2.80
-0.02
2.78
68
2.5
5.4
109
8
6
116
29
8

2.40
-0.07
2.33
63
2.4
3.6
112
7
6
100
24
6

2.00
-0.09
1.90
56
2.4
2.5
116
7
7
85
21
5

1.60
-0.08
1.52
52
2.3
2.0
117
7
7
72
18
4

1.40
-0.06
1.34
50
2.3
2.0
117
7
8
64
16
3

1.30
-0.14
1.16
46
2.2
2.1
119
7
8
63
16
3

1.20
-0.12
1.07
42
2.2
2.3
120
7
8
59
15
3

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)

Trillion US$
1990 US$/c

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 142 of 241

82.3
79765.3 NOT ppp-corrected

NOT use but Production

1.2 Net Ecosystem Production (NEP)

339 Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species
389 Permanent pasture: FAO category 'land for grass & fodder species'
26
1451
1033
3238

1.10
-0.11 Approximate calculation from complex land-use module
0.99
40
2.0
2.6
120
6
8
56
13
2

B1 IMAGE
REF - B1 IMAGE

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100 Remarks

412

429

437

443

445

443

432

419

401

384

365

347

1.0
2307.2

0.7
1675.8

1.0
2335.2

1.7
3864.4

2.8
6258.7

4.3
9702.5

6.2
14328.5

8.2
19522.7

10.3
25650.8

12.8
33306.4

15.4
42087.4

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

3
14
21
15
9
0
62

2
10
12
11
5
1
40

2
6
11
10
7
1
37

2
5
12
10
11
1
40

1
4
12
10
14
2
42

1
4
11
9
18
2
46

1
4
10
9
20
3
46

1
3
8
8
20
3
45

1
3
7
8
19
3
41

1
3
6
7
18
3
38

1
2
6
6
17
3
35

1
2
5
6
16
3
32

Primary Energy
EJ
Coal
Oil
Gas
Non-Fossil Electric
Biomass

36
28
25
1
1

18
13
15
1
1

13
14
15
1
1

12
16
18
2
2

12
16
19
4
2

14
18
20
5
4

14
18
18
6
5

12
16
17
7
5

9
13
15
8
5

8
11
13
8
5

6
10
11
8
5

5
8
10
8
5

4
95

3
52

3
48

3
52

3
56

3
63

3
64

3
60

3
54

3
48

3
43

3
39

Cumulative Resources Production ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.1
0.2

0.5
0.2
0.3

0.7
0.4
0.6

0.9
0.5
1.0

1.1
0.6
1.4

1.3
0.7
1.9

1.5
0.9
2.3

1.7
1.0
2.8

1.8
1.1
3.2

2.0
1.2
3.5

2.0
1.3
3.8

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

19.6

27.7

34.7

40.5

46.1

51.0

54.1

55.9

57.0

57.9

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.4

0.2

0.5

0.8

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.3

Land Use

Million ha
278
392
1
1146
461
2278

217
300
0
1177
583
2278

219
321
1
1175
562
2278

209
319
4
1282
463
2278

190
286
12
1295
495
2278

173
248
28
1310
519
2278

154
211
41
1350
521
2278

141
187
51
1378
521
2278

128
170
57
1410
512
2278

117
162
58
1443
498
2278

106
155
50
1459
507
2278

98 Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species
148 Permanent pasture: FAO category 'land for grass & fodder species'
46
1480
506
2278

1.30
0.00
1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8
69
16
5

0.91
0.00
0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6
41
13
3

0.81
-0.01
0.80
38
0.6
9.0
9
6
4
28
12
3

0.91
-0.10
0.81
42
0.6
7.7
15
6
7
23
12
3

0.91
-0.31
0.60
44
0.6
6.9
20
7
7
20
11
3

0.91
-0.35
0.56
40
0.6
7.0
24
8
8
19
11
3

0.91
-0.36
0.55
34
0.5
6.5
26
9
9
19
11
3

0.81
-0.38
0.43
33
0.4
5.6
27
10
9
17
10
2

0.61
-0.41
0.20
30
0.4
4.6
27
9
7
15
9
2

0.51
-0.36
0.15
27
0.4
3.9
27
8
6
13
9
2

0.41
-0.34
0.06
24
0.3
3.0
27
8
4
12
9
2

0.41
-0.29 Approximate calculation from complex land-use module
0.12
21
0.3
2.5
26
8
4
9
9
1

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)

Trillion US$
1990 US$/c

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 143 of 241

18.1
52209.7 NOT ppp-corrected

NOT use but Production

1.2 Net Ecosystem Production (NEP)

B1 IMAGE
ASIA - B1 IMAGE

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100 Remarks
2886

Population

Million

2781

3246

3609

3929

4142

4235

4220

4088

3871

3594

3262

GNP/GDP (mex)

Trillion US$
1990 US$/c

1.4
502.0

2.7
836.8

4.8
1336.1

8.7
2206.5

15.1
3651.1

24.9
5885.3

37.9
8980.9

51.4
12579.4

64.8
16732.0

78.7
21889.1

91.7
28118.6

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

29
20
12
2
4
0
68

31
23
22
6
9
1
92

30
23
29
13
19
3
117

24
23
34
17
36
9
144

19
23
38
19
56
16
171

14
22
39
20
80
23
198

9
20
35
22
93
27
205

8
17
30
23
95
28
200

6
14
26
23
93
26
189

5
12
24
23
88
24
175

5
10
21
21
84
21
162

4
8
19
20
77
18
144

Primary Energy
EJ
Coal
Oil
Gas
Non-Fossil Electric
Biomass

28
16
4
0
0

41
27
11
1
1

51
39
25
2
3

58
51
42
5
11

67
63
56
11
23

74
61
63
24
34

64
56
59
40
40

48
49
52
52
38

35
40
45
60
37

24
33
38
65
31

17
27
31
68
26

11
21
25
67
22

30
79

33
113

32
153

27
195

23
244

18
273

13
272

12
251

11
227

10
200

9
178

8
154

Cumulative Resources Production ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.2
0.1

0.8
0.4
0.2

1.2
0.7
0.4

1.7
1.1
0.6

2.2
1.4
0.8

2.7
1.6
1.2

3.2
1.8
1.5

3.5
2.0
1.8

3.7
2.1
2.1

3.8
2.2
2.4

3.9
2.3
2.6

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

42.1

73.2

110.1

151.3

191.9

227.4

256.7

280.2

298.1

310.2

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.2

-0.2

-0.1

0.2

Land Use

Million ha
382
561
1
488
544
1976

392
652
1
403
528
1976

405
734
3
348
486
1976

419
748
12
330
468
1976

422
753
32
316
454
1976

411
753
71
300
441
1976

393
723
94
302
464
1976

362
600
110
334
570
1976

327
531
95
383
640
1976

288
471
84
489
645
1976

252
431
63
599
631
1976

216 Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species
386 Permanent pasture: FAO category 'land for grass & fodder species'
50
671
653
1976

2.58
0.24
2.82
136
2.9
29.0
11
7
11
286
40
11

3.18
0.22
3.40
148
3.2
29.1
20
9
17
289
40
13

3.78
0.21
3.98
154
3.3
29.2
34
11
23
280
40
15

4.08
0.19
4.27
161
3.4
27.6
56
14
27
285
40
15

3.68
0.18
3.85
157
3.3
21.4
93
17
30
245
37
13

3.08
0.16
3.24
149
3.0
15.3
90
20
32
238
36
11

2.48
0.15
2.62
141
2.7
10.7
85
18
26
233
33
9

1.98
0.11
2.09
128
2.5
7.7
79
18
19
228
32
8

1.58
-0.09
1.49
118
2.1
5.8
72
18
16
222
32
7

1.28
-0.35 Approximate calculation from complex land-use module
0.93
105
1.9
4.2
64
18
16
214
29
5

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 144 of 241

103.1
35726.2 NOT ppp-corrected

NOT use but Production

1.15
0.37
1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4
235
33
7

1.78
0.26
2.03
125
2.6
25.3
4
5
7
270
37
9

0.4 Net Ecosystem Production (NEP)

B1 IMAGE
ALM - B1 IMAGE

1990

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)

Trillion US$
1990 US$/c

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100 Remarks
2783

1287

1597

1954

2315

2643

2879

3055

3159

3202

3145

3006

2.1
1653.4

3.1
1933.0

5.6
2839.5

9.8
4243.2

16.9
6406.6

27.6
9580.8

41.6
13623.6

56.7
17954.7

73.6
22996.3

92.0
29243.6

109.1
36311.8

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

16
1
15
4
2
0
39

19
3
23
8
4
0
57

24
5
36
15
10
1
91

23
7
48
16
21
4
119

21
10
55
16
41
8
150

18
12
60
17
67
9
183

14
14
58
21
90
13
211

13
14
53
23
100
17
219

11
12
48
25
101
18
216

10
10
45
25
97
18
205

9
8
40
25
89
17
187

7
7
35
23
79
15
165

Primary Energy
EJ
Coal
Oil
Gas
Non-Fossil Electric
Biomass

3
17
6
0
0

4
27
10
0
0

10
48
25
1
2

24
68
33
2
7

48
87
36
5
14

64
107
45
12
23

65
114
59
24
29

54
103
64
36
36

42
89
60
46
33

32
77
52
53
33

24
62
47
55
28

18
51
37
53
22

18
43

22
64

27
112

26
160

25
216

23
273

20
312

19
313

19
290

18
265

16
232

15
196

Cumulative Resources Production ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.6
0.1

0.2
1.5
0.4

0.3
2.6
0.7

0.7
4.0
1.2

1.3
5.5
1.7

1.9
6.9
2.3

2.4
8.2
2.9

2.8
9.1
3.5

3.1
9.9
4.0

3.3
10.6
4.5

3.4
11.1
4.9

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

36.8

63.9

98.4

140.0

187.7

235.4

278.2

314.8

344.7

369.2

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

1.2

1.1

1.7

2.1

2.1

1.7

1.3

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.8

Land Use

Million ha
397
1697
2
1528
1955
5579

408
1660
7
1517
1987
5579

477
1750
18
1441
1893
5579

521
1784
44
1386
1844
5579

558
1755
74
1365
1827
5579

553
1592
84
1437
1915
5579

530
1424
96
1548
1981
5579

506
1295
90
1639
2050
5579

486
1184
94
1726
2090
5579

460
1108
84
1798
2130
5579

423
1041
83
1868
2165
5579

385 Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species
975 Permanent pasture: FAO category 'land for grass & fodder species'
74
1940
2205
5579

1.81
0.45
2.26
100
1.5
21.2
16
5
5
321
54
10

2.71
0.45
3.16
115
1.8
26.8
28
6
8
301
55
13

3.71
0.04
3.75
119
1.9
33.7
42
7
12
186
51
16

4.81
-0.25
4.56
117
2.0
37.4
64
8
17
126
48
18

5.11
-0.13
4.98
112
2.2
35.6
98
9
22
121
47
18

4.71
-0.15
4.56
108
2.1
29.9
102
11
24
131
47
17

4.11
-0.10
4.01
103
2.1
24.0
102
11
21
143
45
15

3.51
-0.21
3.30
92
2.0
19.5
101
11
14
121
42
13

2.91
-0.22
2.69
82
1.9
15.7
96
12
14
105
40
11

2.41
-0.22 Approximate calculation from complex land-use module
2.19
70
1.6
12.6
89
12
14
83
36
10

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 145 of 241

124.9
44869.7 NOT ppp-corrected

NOT use but Production

0.72
0.73
1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
2
396
48
7

1.01
0.82
1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5
404
55
8

0.7 Net Ecosystem Production (NEP)

B1 AIM
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B1 AIM
1990
Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

5204

6056

6741

7426

8112

8368

8631

8465

8301

7957

7453

6982

20.9

27.4

37.3

51.9

73.9

99.7

134.5

165.9

204.8

245.7

286.6

334.3

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

50
36
111
51
38

46
39
119
59
50

30
47
130
82
63

24
56
152
104
81

17
62
173
131
103

0
65
186
149
138

0
67
200
170
186

0
52
202
161
228

0
41
204
152
279

0
31
204
137
314

0
24
200
117
324

0
18
196
100
334

285

311

353

417

485

549

623

652

683

688

668

648

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

93
143
73
6
50

93
161
104
10
48

126
176
143
11
38

162
177
183
14
56

195
170
229
15
77

198
152
264
23
94

204
137
308
38
117

168
125
288
36
133

138
115
270
33
150

113
108
241
30
162

92
106
204
27
166

75
103
172
25
171

10
376

11
427

14
508

19
610

29
715

49
781

87
892

138
887

220
926

290
944

316
911

344
890

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.1
0.1
0.1

1.0
1.7
1.0

2.1
3.4
2.2

3.5
5.1
3.8

5.3
6.9
5.9

7.0
8.2
8.1

9.3
9.9
11.3

10.8
11.0
13.7

12.5
12.3
16.6

13.9
13.5
19.3

14.9
14.5
21.5

16.0
15.7
23.8

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

162.2

260.5

368.0

482.6

602.8

718.7

821.3

910.7

987.0

1053.0

1459
3389
0
4296
3805
12949

1466
3407
0
4255
3820
12949

1464
3432
0
4231
3822
12949

1461
3453
59
4264
3711
12949

1458
3474
137
4335
3545
12949

1452
3510
187
4404
3382
12949

1447
3547
254
4475
3226
12949

1442
3591
260
4522
3131
12949

1437
3635
266
4570
3039
12949

1433
3668
260
4619
2968
12949

1431
3688
242
4668
2917
12949

1429
3709
225
4719
2868
12949

8.47
0.93
9.39
358
6.9
76.3
784
29
36
968
157
35

10.05
0.23
10.28
391
6.9
89.2
291
32
37
981
177
38

11.50
-0.29
11.22
426
6.8
92.9
257
33
47
1076
176
41

12.00
-0.31
11.69
437
6.8
60.7
298
37
58
1146
171
41

12.59
-0.24
12.35
449
6.8
42.3
338
42
68
1223
167
40

11.12
-0.28
10.84
429
6.7
33.1
337
47
71
1241
141
36

9.86
-0.19
9.67
410
6.6
26.3
333
45
62
1260
119
31

8.29
-0.09
8.20
364
6.5
22.8
327
43
46
1278
97
28

7.27
-0.21
7.06
300
6.3
21.4
315
46
43
1296
78
26

6.40
-0.26
6.15
248
6.2
20.1
299
45
43
1314
62
24

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 146 of 241

5.99
1.11
7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38
879
139
31

6.90
1.07
7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40
877
141
32

B1 AIM

Page 147 of 241

B1 AIM
OECD90 - B1 AIM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

801

857

896

935

973

991

1008

1013

1018

1023

1029

1035

16.4

20.7

25.5

31.3

38.5

44.9

52.4

59.1

66.7

74.0

80.5

87.7

6
10
64
25
22

2
11
70
31
27

0
10
67
37
29

0
10
70
40
31

0
9
68
43
33

0
8
66
41
38

0
7
64
40
43

0
6
60
35
50

0
4
56
31
59

0
3
53
27
64

0
2
50
23
66

0
2
47
19
68

127

141

144

151

153

154

154

153

152

148

142

137

41
76
34
5
6

34
88
51
7
1

37
85
58
8
0

38
81
61
8
4

38
69
63
7
9

36
56
62
8
14

33
46
62
8
20

26
39
54
8
23

21
33
47
7
26

17
29
40
6
28

14
28
34
5
28

11
26
28
5
29

6
167

6
187

7
195

9
201

13
199

17
192

22
192

32
182

48
181

60
180

65
174

70
170

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.1
0.0

0.4
0.9
0.5

0.8
1.8
1.0

1.1
2.6
1.6

1.5
3.4
2.2

1.8
3.9
2.8

2.2
4.5
3.5

2.5
4.9
4.0

2.7
5.3
4.5

3.0
5.6
5.0

3.1
5.9
5.3

3.3
6.2
5.7

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

62.0

93.7

124.5

153.8

181.5

206.5

228.0

246.3

261.8

274.8

381
760
0
1050
838
3029

380
765
0
1059
826
3029

378
772
0
1074
805
3029

376
779
10
1094
770
3029

374
787
23
1117
728
3029

370
809
32
1133
682
3029

366
832
44
1149
639
3029

361
862
45
1154
605
3029

357
893
46
1159
574
3029

354
912
45
1167
551
3029

353
918
41
1179
536
3029

352
924
39
1192
522
3029

3.24
-0.06
3.18
71
2.5
10.4
108
12
16
172
34
11

3.27
-0.12
3.15
69
2.5
7.8
103
10
5
183
31
10

3.16
-0.14
3.02
66
2.5
7.5
109
8
6
200
28
9

2.96
-0.11
2.85
60
2.4
7.2
112
7
6
205
23
7

2.77
-0.08
2.69
54
2.3
6.9
116
7
7
210
18
6

2.34
-0.03
2.31
50
2.2
6.2
117
7
7
209
11
6

1.97
0.01
1.98
46
2.2
5.5
117
7
8
209
5
5

1.68
0.00
1.68
43
2.1
4.9
119
7
8
209
1
5

1.45
-0.03
1.42
41
2.0
4.3
120
7
8
210
1
4

1.25
-0.06
1.19
38
2.0
3.8
120
6
8
212
1
4

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 148 of 241

2.83
0.00
2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
24
179
42
13

3.20
0.00
3.20
74
2.6
17.0
58
13
23
161
36
12

B1 AIM
REF - B1 AIM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

413

419

424

430

435

429

423

406

391

374

356

339

1.1

0.8

1.2

1.8

2.5

3.9

5.9

7.8

10.2

12.9

15.7

19.1

2
9
19
19
8

5
6
9
13
9

0
5
7
16
9

0
5
5
17
9

0
4
4
18
9

0
4
4
21
12

0
4
4
26
17

0
3
4
23
21

0
2
3
21
25

0
2
3
17
27

0
1
3
13
27

0
1
2
10
27

58

42

37

36

35

42

51

51

52

50

45

40

18
22
26
1
2

13
12
22
1
4

13
9
25
1
0

12
7
26
2
3

11
6
25
1
8

12
5
29
2
12

13
4
33
3
17

11
3
30
3
19

9
2
26
3
22

7
1
22
3
24

6
1
17
2
24

5
1
13
2
25

1
71

1
54

1
50

2
51

2
53

4
63

8
79

13
78

20
82

25
82

26
76

28
73

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.3

0.3
0.3
0.5

0.4
0.4
0.8

0.5
0.4
1.0

0.7
0.5
1.3

0.8
0.5
1.6

0.9
0.5
1.9

1.0
0.6
2.2

1.1
0.6
2.4

1.1
0.6
2.6

1.2
0.6
2.8

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

20.2

28.3

34.5

39.6

44.0

47.3

49.7

50.0

48.8

47.7

268
341
0
966
701
2276

266
362
0
951
696
2276

266
364
0
934
711
2276

266
366
9
933
702
2276

265
368
20
934
688
2276

265
370
27
953
658
2276

264
372
37
973
630
2276

264
374
38
983
617
2276

263
376
39
993
604
2276

263
378
38
1005
592
2276

263
380
35
1018
580
2276

262
382
33
1031
568
2276

0.88
0.05
0.93
48
0.6
10.6
9
6
4
36
12
3

0.78
-0.10
0.68
50
0.6
9.2
15
6
7
34
11
3

0.65
-0.10
0.56
49
0.6
6.9
20
7
7
33
10
2

0.66
-0.19
0.47
46
0.6
4.3
24
8
8
33
9
2

0.66
-0.26
0.40
43
0.6
2.7
26
9
9
33
9
2

0.48
-0.20
0.28
34
0.6
2.2
27
10
9
32
7
2

0.35
-0.15
0.20
26
0.6
1.9
27
9
7
32
6
1

-0.11
-0.02
-0.14
20
0.5
1.7
27
8
6
31
4
1

-0.05
-0.07
-0.12
16
0.5
1.7
27
8
4
30
3
1

0.02
-0.11
-0.10
12
0.5
1.6
26
8
4
29
1
1

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 149 of 241

1.30
0.00
1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8
69
16
5

0.91
0.00
0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6
41
13
3

B1 AIM
ASIA - B1 AIM
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2798

3261

3556

3851

4147

4183

4220

4016

3822

3541

3194

2882

1.5

2.9

5.2

9.2

16.2

24.0

35.8

46.0

59.2

73.5

88.2

105.9

28
15
11
2
5

22
20
15
4
7

20
30
26
10
15

16
39
35
18
25

8
46
45
24
38

0
49
51
28
54

0
52
58
33
78

0
40
59
32
96

0
31
60
31
119

0
24
60
28
133

0
18
58
24
135

0
14
57
20
137

61

69

101

134

162

189

220

232

244

246

236

227

30
17
4
0
28

39
29
9
1
24

66
39
21
2
19

95
42
37
3
18

122
44
52
4
15

119
40
67
8
19

116
35
87
16
24

94
31
81
15
27

76
28
76
14
31

61
25
67
13
33

49
24
55
12
34

38
23
45
10
35

1
80

2
103

2
148

4
199

7
244

16
269

34
314

56
306

92
317

122
321

131
304

141
293

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.2
0.1

0.9
0.6
0.2

1.7
1.0
0.5

2.8
1.4
0.9

3.8
1.8
1.5

5.2
2.2
2.3

6.0
2.5
3.0

7.0
2.8
3.8

7.7
3.1
4.6

8.3
3.3
5.2

8.8
3.6
5.8

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

43.8

79.5

124.5

176.0

230.6

282.6

327.2

365.9

399.0

427.5

438
608
0
535
583
2164

435
606
0
525
598
2164

435
609
0
518
602
2164

435
612
12
535
571
2164

434
614
28
551
536
2164

434
617
39
557
516
2164

434
619
52
563
496
2164

434
622
54
577
477
2164

433
625
55
593
458
2164

433
628
53
604
446
2164

433
631
50
610
441
2164

433
634
46
616
436
2164

2.87
0.29
3.16
142
2.6
40.0
11
7
11
335
51
12

3.99
0.00
3.99
160
2.6
56.5
20
9
17
366
63
15

4.97
0.05
5.02
183
2.6
58.2
34
11
23
438
59
18

5.19
0.10
5.29
196
2.7
31.2
56
14
27
473
60
19

5.42
0.22
5.63
209
2.7
16.7
93
17
30
510
61
19

4.74
0.03
4.77
205
2.7
11.4
90
20
32
511
51
16

4.15
0.01
4.15
200
2.6
7.8
85
18
26
511
42
13

3.57
0.00
3.58
177
2.6
6.0
79
18
19
510
33
11

3.03
0.02
3.05
143
2.6
5.3
72
18
16
507
24
9

2.57
0.08
2.66
114
2.5
4.7
64
18
16
504
17
8

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 150 of 241

1.15
0.37
1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4
235
33
7

1.78
0.26
2.03
125
2.6
25.3
4
5
7
270
37
9

B1 AIM
ALM - B1 AIM
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1192

1519

1865

2211

2557

2761

2980

3024

3067

3013

2866

2726

1.9

3.0

5.4

9.6

16.7

26.0

40.4

52.5

68.2

85.1

101.7

121.7

14
1
17
4
4

17
2
24
10
7

9
2
31
19
11

8
2
41
29
16

8
3
55
46
23

0
4
64
57
33

0
4
75
71
48

0
3
79
70
61

0
3
84
69
77

0
2
88
65
89

0
2
89
57
95

0
2
90
50
102

40

60

71

97

135

163

198

215

235

245

244

244

5
27
9
0
14

7
33
22
0
18

11
44
39
1
19

16
47
59
1
31

24
51
89
2
45

31
51
106
5
50

41
52
126
10
56

36
52
123
9
63

32
52
121
9
72

28
52
112
9
77

24
53
98
8
79

21
54
86
8
81

2
57

2
83

3
115

5
159

7
219

13
257

23
308

37
322

61
346

82
360

93
356

105
355

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.3
0.2

0.2
0.7
0.5

0.3
1.2
1.0

0.5
1.7
1.7

0.7
2.1
2.6

1.1
2.7
3.8

1.4
3.1
4.9

1.8
3.7
6.2

2.1
4.2
7.4

2.4
4.7
8.4

1.7
6.7
12.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

36.2

59.1

84.5

113.1

146.6

182.2

216.4

248.4

277.4

303.0

371
1680
0
1745
1684
5480

385
1675
0
1720
1700
5480

385
1686
0
1704
1704
5480

385
1696
29
1702
1669
5480

384
1705
66
1732
1593
5480

384
1714
89
1761
1526
5480

383
1723
121
1790
1461
5480

383
1732
124
1808
1432
5480

383
1741
127
1825
1403
5480

383
1750
124
1843
1379
5480

382
1760
115
1861
1360
5480

382
1769
107
1880
1342
5480

1.48
0.65
2.13
97
1.3
12.2
16
5
5
425
60
9

2.02
0.44
2.46
112
1.2
12.6
28
6
8
398
72
10

2.73
-0.10
2.63
128
1.1
17.3
42
7
12
405
80
12

3.20
-0.11
3.08
135
1.2
15.0
64
8
17
436
79
12

3.75
-0.11
3.63
143
1.2
13.1
98
9
22
470
79
13

3.56
-0.08
3.48
141
1.2
10.3
102
11
24
489
73
13

3.39
-0.05
3.34
138
1.2
8.1
102
11
21
508
67
12

3.14
-0.07
3.08
124
1.2
7.2
101
11
14
528
59
12

2.84
-0.12
2.72
101
1.2
7.1
96
12
14
548
50
11

2.56
-0.17
2.39
84
1.2
7.0
89
12
14
569
42
11

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 151 of 241

0.72
0.73
1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
2
396
48
7

1.01
0.82
1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5
404
55
8

B1 ASF
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B1 ASF
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Population

5264

6117

6827

7537

8039

8526

8704

8527

8444

8022

7282

7056

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

20.6

27.6

38.0

53.5

73.8

114.9

134.3

167.2

186.9

252.2

314.9

339.3

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

55
121
50
42

66
170
58
55

80
228
82
77

89
304
124
104

76
308
149
149

62
311
174
195

49
314
198
241

42
280
185
283

35
247
171
325

30
221
157
343

28
203
143
339

25
186
129
334

269

350

467

621

682

742

802

790

778

752

712

673

97
139
74
7
0

119
198
83
10
0

149
272
118
8
0

191
354
179
7
14

262
289
231
9
43

332
225
283
11
73

403
160
335
13
102

354
103
303
11
125

305
46
272
10
148

259
14
242
9
167

215
8
213
8
183

172
2
184
8
198

10
326

14
424

23
570

30
774

46
879

61
984

77
1090

135
1031

192
973

223
914

226
853

229
791

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

1.2
1.8
0.9

2.5
4.2
1.9

4.2
7.3
3.3

6.5
10.5
5.4

9.5
13.0
8.0

13.2
14.9
11.1

16.9
16.1
14.3

20.2
16.8
17.1

23.0
17.0
19.7

25.3
17.1
21.9

27.2
17.2
23.9

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

169.0

295.1

451.7

624.0

803.6

971.7

1109.4

1219.9

1309.9

1382.6

-1.8

-2.0

-2.1

-2.3

-2.5

-2.7

-2.9

-3.1

-3.2

-3.3

-3.4

-3.4

5.99
1.11
7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38
879
139
31

6.90
1.07
7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40
877
141
32

9.65
1.12
10.76
373
8.1
83.6
784
29
36
1039
162
44

13.22
1.24
14.46
430
9.5
112.3
291
32
37
1162
193
59

15.72
1.13
16.85
479
10.5
104.7
257
33
47
1338
218
70

16.61
0.98
17.59
513
11.0
76.4
298
37
58
1316
228
71

17.50
0.84
18.33
546
11.5
48.1
338
42
68
1293
237
72

14.71
0.58
15.29
513
11.2
38.1
337
47
71
1199
255
62

11.93
0.32
12.24
481
10.8
28.1
333
45
62
1105
272
52

9.68
0.18
9.86
447
10.4
23.4
327
43
46
1029
295
45

7.98
0.16
8.13
412
9.9
24.0
315
46
43
971
322
40

6.27
0.14
6.41
377
9.3
24.6
299
45
43
913
349
35

Million

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 152 of 241

B1 ASF

Page 153 of 241

B1 ASF
OECD90 - B1 ASF

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

849

919

961

1003

1035

1069

1081

1085

1088

1096

1106

1110

15.5

19.2

23.4

27.7

32.4

40.4

43.5

49.7

53.0

64.7

78.7

84.1

12
68
27
24

13
86
29
27

12
91
31
33

12
88
35
37

12
77
36
40

11
66
37
43

11
55
38
46

9
48
35
54

8
41
33
63

7
37
31
69

7
37
31
74

6
36
31
79

131

155

167

172

165

157

150

147

144

144

148

152

33
77
35
6
0

32
97
38
8
0

34
106
42
6
0

39
102
50
4
4

52
75
54
4
10

66
47
59
3
15

79
20
63
3
21

66
12
57
3
24

52
5
51
3
27

44
1
47
2
30

40
1
45
2
34

36
0
43
3
38

6
156

7
181

10
198

11
211

13
208

15
205

16
202

27
189

38
176

46
171

50
173

55
175

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
1.0
0.4

0.7
2.0
0.8

1.1
3.0
1.3

1.5
3.9
1.8

2.1
4.5
2.3

2.8
4.8
3.0

3.6
4.9
3.6

4.1
5.0
4.1

4.6
5.0
4.6

5.0
5.0
5.1

5.4
5.0
5.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

63.7

99.8

137.5

174.8

210.1

241.4

266.9

287.5

305.9

323.2

2.83
0.00
2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
24
179
42
13

3.20
0.00
3.20
74
2.6
17.0
58
13
23
161
36
12

3.51
0.00
3.51
77
2.7
7.6
108
12
16
165
40
13

3.72
0.00
3.72
81
2.9
7.5
103
10
5
154
43
14

3.82
0.00
3.82
86
3.0
7.0
109
8
6
135
41
14

3.63
0.00
3.63
90
2.9
6.3
112
7
6
100
36
13

3.43
0.00
3.43
93
2.8
5.6
116
7
7
66
32
11

2.84
0.00
2.84
90
2.7
5.1
117
7
7
54
32
9

2.24
0.00
2.24
88
2.6
4.6
117
7
8
42
31
7

1.89
0.00
1.89
85
2.5
4.8
119
7
8
35
33
6

1.78
0.00
1.78
81
2.4
5.5
120
7
8
34
37
6

1.68
0.00
1.68
78
2.3
6.3
120
6
8
32
40
5

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 154 of 241

B1 ASF
REF - B1 ASF

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

417

419

425

431

432

425

423

406

398

374

347

339

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.0

0.9

1.3

1.9

2.9

4.6

5.3

6.6

7.4

10.0

12.8

14.0

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

18
16
16
8

11
11
12
7

11
12
15
9

9
13
18
11

8
12
17
10

6
11
17
10

5
11
16
10

3
9
14
10

2
8
11
10

1
7
9
10

1
7
8
9

1
7
6
8

57

42

47

51

48

44

41

36

32

28

25

21

23
18
26
1
0

13
13
22
1
0

14
14
26
1
0

14
15
30
0
0

14
14
27
1
0

13
13
24
1
0

12
13
21
1
1

9
9
17
0
2

5
6
14
0
4

3
4
11
0
6

2
2
9
0
8

2
1
7
0
9

1
69

2
50

3
57

3
64

3
59

3
55

3
50

5
43

6
36

7
31

6
28

6
25

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.3

0.3
0.3
0.5

0.5
0.4
0.8

0.6
0.6
1.1

0.7
0.7
1.3

0.9
0.9
1.6

1.0
1.0
1.7

1.0
1.0
1.9

1.1
1.1
2.0

1.1
1.1
2.1

1.1
1.1
2.2

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

20.6

31.2

41.5

50.5

57.7

62.9

66.1

67.6

68.0

67.6

1.30
0.00
1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8
69
16
5

0.91
0.00
0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6
41
13
3

1.01
0.00
1.01
43
0.6
10.4
9
6
4
41
16
3

1.09
0.00
1.09
53
0.6
9.6
15
6
7
38
22
4

0.98
0.00
0.98
67
0.7
8.0
20
7
7
41
27
3

0.81
0.00
0.81
78
0.7
5.7
24
8
8
38
26
3

0.63
0.00
0.63
89
0.7
3.4
26
9
9
35
25
2

0.42
0.00
0.42
77
0.6
2.5
27
10
9
31
24
2

0.22
0.00
0.22
65
0.6
1.6
27
9
7
28
22
1

0.07
0.00
0.07
54
0.5
1.0
27
8
6
25
22
1

0.00
0.00
0.00
46
0.5
0.7
27
8
4
24
25
1

-0.08
0.00
-0.08
37
0.5
0.4
26
8
4
23
27
0

Population

Million

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 155 of 241

B1 ASF
ASIA - B1 ASF
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2780

3261

3572

3884

4073

4181

4220

4012

3913

3538

3033

2882

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.6

3.4

6.7

12.5

20.5

37.9

46.6

60.0

68.2

94.3

115.9

124.2

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

24
15
3
6

41
36
8
13

55
67
19
23

64
114
41
36

50
124
55
68

36
134
70
100

22
144
85
133

18
130
78
149

15
116
71
165

12
104
63
167

10
93
56
155

8
83
48
143

47

97

163

255

298

340

383

375

366

346

314

282

36
19
4
0
0

65
45
10
1
0

88
85
27
1
0

116
134
56
2
5

154
110
89
4
18

193
86
121
6
30

232
62
154
8
43

201
38
137
7
54

170
13
120
6
65

141
1
103
5
72

112
0
86
4
76

83
0
69
4
80

1
61

3
124

6
207

9
323

19
395

29
466

39
537

67
504

95
470

107
429

102
381

98
333

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.5
0.3
0.1

1.3
1.0
0.3

2.3
2.1
0.7

3.7
3.3
1.4

5.5
4.3
2.5

7.6
5.0
3.8

9.7
5.5
5.3

11.6
5.7
6.6

13.1
5.7
7.7

14.4
5.7
8.6

15.3
5.7
9.4

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

46.6

95.3

164.8

248.0

340.2

430.3

507.0

571.2

624.6

668.1

1.15
0.37
1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4
235
33
7

1.78
0.26
2.03
125
2.6
25.3
4
5
7
270
37
9

3.38
0.34
3.72
145
3.2
47.3
11
7
11
363
43
16

5.63
0.39
6.02
163
4.0
66.7
20
9
17
438
51
25

7.54
0.33
7.87
179
4.6
58.2
34
11
23
537
58
31

8.51
0.26
8.77
190
5.0
37.6
56
14
27
549
63
33

9.48
0.19
9.67
202
5.3
17.0
93
17
30
561
67
35

8.21
0.13
8.34
187
5.1
12.1
90
20
32
521
72
30

6.93
0.07
7.00
173
4.9
7.2
85
18
26
482
76
25

5.81
0.03
5.84
158
4.6
4.9
79
18
19
445
80
20

4.83
0.01
4.85
142
4.3
5.2
72
18
16
411
84
17

3.86
0.00
3.86
126
3.9
5.4
64
18
16
376
88
14

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 156 of 241

B1 ASF
ALM - B1 ASF
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1218

1519

1869

2218

2500

2851

2980

3023

3044

3013

2795

2727

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

2.5

4.0

6.7

11.3

18.0

32.0

38.9

50.9

58.2

83.3

107.4

117.1

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

1
22
5
4

2
38
9
7

3
58
17
12

4
89
31
20

7
94
40
31

9
100
50
42

11
105
60
54

11
94
58
71

11
82
56
88

10
73
53
98

10
66
49
101

10
60
44
103

33

56

89

144

172

201

229

233

237

234

226

217

5
25
8
0
0

9
43
13
0
0

14
67
23
0
0

21
102
42
0
4

41
90
60
1
15

61
77
79
1
26

81
65
97
1
38

79
43
92
1
45

77
21
87
1
53

71
8
80
1
59

61
5
72
1
65

51
1
64
1
71

2
40

3
68

5
108

7
177

10
218

14
259

18
300

35
295

53
291

63
283

67
271

71
259

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.4
0.1

0.2
0.9
0.3

0.4
1.8
0.6

0.7
2.7
1.1

1.2
3.5
1.8

1.9
4.2
2.7

2.7
4.8
3.7

3.5
5.1
4.6

4.2
5.2
5.4

4.9
5.3
6.2

5.4
5.3
6.8

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

38.1

68.9

108.0

150.7

195.6

237.0

269.4

293.6

311.4

323.7

0.72
0.73
1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
2
396
48
7

1.01
0.82
1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5
404
55
8

1.74
0.78
2.52
108
1.6
15.2
16
5
5
470
63
11

2.79
0.85
3.64
132
1.9
25.4
28
6
8
532
77
17

3.37
0.80
4.17
147
2.2
28.5
42
7
12
626
92
21

3.66
0.72
4.38
155
2.5
23.8
64
8
17
629
103
22

3.95
0.65
4.59
163
2.7
19.1
98
9
22
631
113
24

3.24
0.45
3.69
159
2.7
15.4
102
11
24
592
128
21

2.53
0.25
2.78
155
2.8
11.7
102
11
21
553
143
19

1.91
0.15
2.06
149
2.7
9.8
101
11
14
523
159
18

1.36
0.14
1.50
142
2.7
9.6
96
12
14
503
176
16

0.81
0.14
0.95
136
2.6
9.4
89
12
14
482
193
15

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 157 of 241

B1 MESSAGE
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B1 MESSAGE
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Population

5262

6117

6888

7617

8182

8531

8704

8667

8463

8125

7658

7056

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

20.9
25.7

26.8
33.3

36.2
44.6

52.1
61.6

73.1
82.2

100.7
108.4

135.6
140.0

171.6
171.8

208.5
204.1

249.8
242.5

290.0
281.3

328.4
318.8

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

38
42
111
41
35
8
275

27
52
123
47
44
10
303

22
61
155
61
61
18
379

16
59
185
71
87
33
450

10
55
214
74
117
52
522

8
39
239
73
148
75
581

6
23
243
63
172
98
604

0
18
220
53
194
123
608

0
9
190
47
204
136
585

0
3
153
45
213
144
556

0
2
131
39
209
138
520

0
1
114
31
200
124
469

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

91
128
71
7
46

91
155
84
8
45

109
172
119
11
55

110
189
161
15
70

97
203
221
20
89

71
198
278
27
111

37
192
297
36
121

21
161
302
42
129

15
132
281
47
150

16
95
267
48
174

18
64
232
46
215

22
46
215
41
235

8
352

13
395

23
488

41
586

62
692

103
788

156
837

211
865

239
865

248
848

239
813

197
755

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.9
1.4
0.7

1.8
3.0
1.6

2.9
4.7
2.8

4.0
6.6
4.4

5.0
8.6
6.6

5.7
10.6
9.4

6.1
12.5
12.3

6.3
14.1
15.3

6.4
15.4
18.2

6.6
16.4
20.8

6.8
17.0
23.2

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

160.4

251.5

343.6

436.2

525.3

606.8

679.2

741.9

794.0

837.4

1459
3389
0
4296
3805
12949

1466
3407
0

1464
3432
0

1461
3453
59

1458
3474
137

1452
3510
196

1447
3547
254

1442
3591
260

1437
3635
266

1433
3668
261

1431
3688
243

1429
3709
225

4255
3820
12949

4231
3822
12949

4264
3711
12949

4335
3545
12949

4405
3386
12949

4475
3226
12949

4522
3133
12949

4570
3040
12949

4619
2968
12949

4669
2918
12949

4719
2868
12949

8.26
0.79
9.05
356
6.0
65.6
784
29
36
1001
164
38

9.19
-0.03
9.16
386
5.8
55.2
291
32
37
1120
180
44

9.93
-0.65
9.27
421
5.7
47.5
257
33
47
1233
183
47

9.91
-0.66
9.25
442
5.6
38.7
298
37
58
1326
180
46

9.24
-0.67
8.57
453
5.6
31.0
338
42
68
1331
175
40

8.36
-0.62
7.74
436
5.5
25.4
337
47
71
1268
154
33

7.32
-0.57
6.75
424
5.4
20.2
333
45
62
1288
141
27

6.36
-0.57
5.79
392
5.4
16.5
327
43
46
1307
121
23

5.24
-0.61
4.63
334
5.4
13.9
315
46
43
1409
93
20

4.68
-0.65
4.04
279
5.3
12.2
299
45
43
1436
70
17

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run

5.99
1.11
7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38
879
139
31

6.90
1.07
7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40
877
141
32

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data
Page 158 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run

B1 MESSAGE

Page 159 of 241

B1 MESSAGE
OECD90 - B1 MESSAGE

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

859

919

965

1007

1043

1069

1081

1084

1089

1098

1108

1110

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

16.4
14.1

20.6
17.7

26.0
22.4

32.4
28.1

38.3
33.3

43.9
38.3

49.9
43.6

55.4
48.5

59.8
52.5

66.3
58.4

73.9
65.1

82.3
72.7

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
13
66
22
22
1
124

0
10
69
28
28
1
136

0
6
75
34
35
2
152

0
3
73
35
43
5
159

0
1
69
33
49
7
159

0
0
65
29
53
8
154

0
0
61
21
54
9
146

0
0
57
14
56
12
139

0
0
52
10
57
13
131

0
0
44
9
60
13
126

0
0
42
7
61
12
123

0
0
39
5
62
11
117

38
72
33
6
6

33
85
45
7
8

36
83
57
8
10

37
73
68
10
13

31
62
80
11
15

14
53
87
14
18

5
44
84
21
20

4
36
75
25
26

2
29
73
27
31

1
21
77
24
39

1
15
76
20
50

0
12
78
15
53

4
159

5
183

8
202

13
213

17
215

22
207

24
198

27
192

29
191

31
192

32
193

32
190

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.8
0.4

0.7
1.6
0.8

1.1
2.5
1.4

1.4
3.2
2.0

1.7
3.8
2.9

1.9
4.3
3.7

1.9
4.8
4.5

2.0
5.1
5.3

2.0
5.4
6.0

2.0
5.6
6.8

2.0
5.8
7.6

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

62.7

95.5

126.4

153.6

176.1

195.1

211.9

227.1

240.7

253.0

381
760
0
1050
838
3029

380
765
0

378
772
0

376
779
10

374
787
23

370
809
33

366
832
44

361
862
45

357
893
46

354
912
45

353
918
42

352
924
39

1059
826
3029

1074
805
3029

1094
770
3029

1117
728
3029

1133
684
3029

1149
639
3029

1154
607
3029

1159
574
3029

1167
551
3029

1179
537
3029

1192
522
3029

3.40
-0.07
3.32
73
2.4
8.9
108
12
16
177
38
14

3.35
-0.13
3.22
70
2.4
2.3
103
10
5
181
36
14

3.13
-0.16
2.97
67
2.3
0.6
109
8
6
160
31
13

2.60
-0.14
2.46
62
2.3
0.6
112
7
6
145
27
10

2.16
-0.12
2.04
57
2.3
0.6
116
7
7
125
23
7

1.84
-0.08
1.76
54
2.2
0.6
117
7
7
123
21
5

1.63
-0.04
1.58
52
2.2
0.3
117
7
8
121
21
3

1.50
-0.04
1.46
51
2.1
0.6
119
7
8
122
20
2

1.35
-0.08
1.27
50
2.1
0.9
120
7
8
139
14
1

1.31
-0.12
1.19
51
2.1
1.5
120
6
8
134
9
1

Population

Million

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run

2.83
0.00
2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
24
179
42
13

3.20
0.00
3.20
74
2.6
17.0
58
13
23
161
36
12

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data

Page 160 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run

B1 MESSAGE
REF - B1 MESSAGE

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

413

419

427

433

435

433

423

409

392

374

357

339

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.1
2.6

0.8
2.2

1.1
2.6

1.7
3.3

2.8
4.3

4.3
5.3

6.2
6.4

8.2
8.2

10.3
10.3

12.8
12.8

15.3
15.3

18.1
18.1

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
9
15
14
6
7
50

0
5
10
10
5
6
36

0
3
10
11
6
6
37

0
2
13
10
7
7
40

0
1
15
9
9
9
43

0
0
17
8
12
9
46

0
0
18
6
14
9
47

0
0
16
4
15
10
45

0
0
13
4
15
10
41

0
0
10
4
15
10
39

0
0
9
3
15
9
35

0
0
8
2
15
7
32

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

19
20
27
1
2

12
14
21
1
1

9
13
25
1
1

6
15
28
0
1

4
17
33
0
2

3
16
40
0
3

2
16
43
0
3

1
15
49
0
3

1
11
53
0
3

1
9
48
1
3

1
6
40
1
6

2
5
31
1
9

1
70

1
51

1
49

3
53

4
59

5
67

6
70

6
74

6
74

7
69

9
63

10
57

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.3

0.3
0.3
0.5

0.4
0.5
0.7

0.4
0.6
1.0

0.5
0.8
1.3

0.5
0.9
1.8

0.5
1.1
2.3

0.5
1.3
2.8

0.5
1.4
3.4

0.6
1.5
4.0

0.6
1.5
4.4

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

20.0

28.2

35.6

42.9

50.0

57.4

65.7

73.7

80.4

85.5

268
341
0
966
701
2276

266
362
0

266
364
0

266
366
9

265
368
20

265
370
29

264
372
37

264
374
38

263
376
39

263
378
38

263
380
35

262
382
33

951
696
2276

934
711
2276

933
702
2276

934
688
2276

954
659
2276

973
630
2276

983
617
2276

993
604
2276

1005
592
2276

1018
580
2276

1031
568
2276

0.85
0.04
0.89
40
0.6
7.1
9
6
4
45
15
3

0.85
-0.11
0.73
40
0.6
4.6
15
6
7
46
17
3

0.87
-0.12
0.75
41
0.6
3.0
20
7
7
51
20
4

0.92
-0.20
0.72
43
0.6
2.0
24
8
8
60
23
4

0.97
-0.28
0.69
43
0.6
1.5
26
9
9
65
27
4

1.03
-0.23
0.81
39
0.6
1.4
27
10
9
60
29
4

1.02
-0.17
0.85
37
0.6
1.3
27
9
7
50
31
3

0.90
-0.15
0.75
33
0.6
1.4
27
8
6
38
28
2

0.73
-0.14
0.59
30
0.6
1.5
27
8
4
34
21
1

0.56
-0.14
0.42
26
0.6
1.6
26
8
4
30
14
1

Population

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run

1.30
0.00
1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8
69
16
5

0.91
0.00
0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6
41
13
3

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data

Page 161 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run

B1 MESSAGE
ASIA - B1 MESSAGE
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2798

3261

3620

3937

4147

4238

4220

4085

3867

3589

3258

2882

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.5
5.3

2.7
8.2

4.8
12.0

8.7
17.3

15.1
24.6

24.9
34.1

37.9
46.1

51.4
57.4

64.8
67.7

78.7
79.3

91.7
91.7

103.1
103.1

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

24
19
13
2
4
1
62

16
33
22
3
6
2
82

12
47
35
7
11
6
117

8
48
50
11
19
11
146

5
46
65
11
30
18
175

3
32
82
14
42
27
199

2
19
87
11
49
34
202

0
14
78
10
57
45
204

0
6
68
10
60
49
193

0
2
55
10
64
52
182

0
1
45
10
63
50
170

0
0
38
10
58
45
150

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

30
15
3
0
24

42
26
5
1
22

57
38
13
1
26

58
52
24
3
30

51
66
36
5
39

44
68
51
9
49

24
72
53
11
54

13
61
53
13
61

8
52
50
14
63

8
37
46
17
67

9
25
34
17
72

10
17
27
17
73

1
74

3
98

6
141

12
178

20
217

35
256

54
268

77
278

83
270

85
260

87
244

74
218

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.2
0.0

0.7
0.4
0.1

1.3
0.8
0.2

1.9
1.3
0.5

2.4
2.0
0.8

2.8
2.7
1.3

3.1
3.4
1.8

3.2
4.0
2.2

3.3
4.5
2.6

3.4
4.9
3.0

3.5
5.1
3.3

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

41.7

69.7

99.4

131.0

161.6

187.6

208.6

225.6

238.9

249.5

438
608
0
535
583
2164

435
606
0

435
609
0

435
612
12

434
614
28

434
617
40

434
619
52

434
622
54

433
625
55

433
628
54

433
631
50

433
634
46

525
598
2164

518
602
2164

535
571
2164

551
536
2164

557
516
2164

563
496
2164

578
477
2164

593
458
2164

604
446
2164

610
441
2164

616
436
2164

2.56
0.20
2.75
145
2.3
31.8
11
7
11
345
48
12

3.01
-0.17
2.84
164
2.3
29.9
20
9
17
421
56
14

3.27
-0.18
3.09
183
2.3
26.3
34
11
23
511
58
16

3.33
-0.10
3.23
196
2.3
19.3
56
14
27
597
59
17

2.93
-0.03
2.90
201
2.2
13.1
93
17
30
632
57
15

2.41
-0.10
2.31
194
2.2
9.3
90
20
32
621
46
12

2.06
-0.17
1.89
189
2.2
6.7
85
18
26
603
40
10

1.69
-0.18
1.51
172
2.2
4.4
79
18
19
587
32
8

1.29
-0.14
1.15
141
2.2
3.1
72
18
16
583
25
7

1.06
-0.10
0.96
109
2.2
2.1
64
18
16
559
20
6

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run

1.15
0.37
1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4
235
33
7

1.78
0.26
2.03
125
2.6
25.3
4
5
7
270
37
9

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data

Page 162 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run

B1 MESSAGE
ALM - B1 MESSAGE
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1192

1519

1875

2241

2557

2791

2980

3089

3115

3064

2934

2727

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.9
3.8

2.7
5.1

4.4
7.6

9.3
12.8

17.0
20.1

27.6
30.6

41.6
44.0

56.7
57.8

73.6
73.6

92.0
92.0

109.1
109.1

124.8
124.8

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

14
1
17
4
3
0
39

11
4
22
6
5
1
49

11
5
34
10
9
5
73

8
6
48
15
17
10
105

6
7
64
22
29
18
145

4
7
75
22
42
32
182

3
4
77
25
54
46
210

0
4
69
25
66
56
220

0
3
57
23
72
65
219

0
1
44
22
74
69
209

0
1
35
18
70
67
192

0
1
29
14
65
61
170

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

5
21
8
0
14

4
30
12
0
14

8
39
24
1
18

10
49
42
2
25

12
59
73
4
33

10
62
100
4
42

6
59
116
4
44

3
50
125
4
39

4
40
106
6
54

6
29
96
6
65

7
18
81
7
88

9
12
79
8
101

2
49

4
65

7
96

13
141

22
201

42
259

72
301

100
321

121
330

125
327

111
313

81
290

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.3
0.1

0.1
0.6
0.2

0.2
0.9
0.5

0.3
1.4
0.9

0.4
2.0
1.6

0.5
2.6
2.6

0.5
3.2
3.8

0.6
3.7
5.0

0.6
4.1
6.1

0.7
4.4
7.0

0.7
4.6
7.8

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

35.9

58.1

82.3

108.7

137.6

166.6

193.0

215.5

234.0

249.4

371
1680
0
1745
1684
5480

385
1675
0

385
1686
0

385
1696
29

384
1705
66

384
1714
93

383
1723
121

383
1732
124

383
1741
127

383
1750
124

382
1760
116

382
1769
107

1720
1700
5480

1704
1704
5480

1702
1669
5480

1732
1593
5480

1761
1527
5480

1790
1461
5480

1808
1432
5480

1825
1403
5480

1843
1379
5480

1862
1361
5480

1880
1342
5480

1.46
0.62
2.08
98
0.7
14.8
16
5
5
434
63
10

1.98
0.38
2.36
112
0.6
15.4
28
6
8
472
70
12

2.66
-0.19
2.46
130
0.5
14.8
42
7
12
510
74
14

3.05
-0.22
2.83
141
0.5
13.8
64
8
17
523
71
15

3.18
-0.25
2.94
151
0.5
12.9
98
9
22
509
68
14

3.08
-0.22
2.86
149
0.5
11.1
102
11
24
465
58
12

2.61
-0.19
2.43
146
0.5
8.9
102
11
21
513
50
11

2.27
-0.20
2.07
135
0.5
7.1
101
11
14
559
42
11

1.86
-0.24
1.62
114
0.5
5.4
96
12
14
654
33
10

1.75
-0.29
1.46
93
0.5
4.1
89
12
14
714
27
9

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run

0.72
0.73
1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
2
396
48
7

1.01
0.82
1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5
404
55
8

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data

Page 163 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run

B1 MARIA
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B1 MARIA
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Population

5262

6117

6888

7617

8048

8207

8704

8536

8372

8028

7527

7056

19.4

25.5

34.2

46.0

60.0

80.7

110.2

135.8

169.8

214.5

275.5

348.5

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

48
138
56
35
0
278

34
148
54
46
0
282

24
167
79
53
0
323

17
188
111
61
0
377

12
215
142
70
0
438

8
247
171
80
0
507

6
288
197
98
0
590

4
349
175
105
0
633

3
368
173
115
0
658

2
400
165
131
0
697

1
410
185
150
0
747

1
448
177
164
0
791

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

90
123
71
22
28

64
134
91
18
30

46
146
129
17
37

34
158
169
15
55

25
177
205
16
75

19
192
237
26
104

14
186
251
43
136

12
177
228
70
198

9
156
223
114
231

7
158
212
173
257

5
147
231
237
276

5
170
219
283
291

9
343

8
345

7
382

7
438

6
504

5
583

57
687

63
747

64
797

64
873

63
959

62
1030

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.9
1.2
0.7

1.5
2.6
1.6

2.0
4.0
2.9

2.4
5.6
4.6

2.6
7.4
6.6

2.8
9.3
9.0

2.9
11.2
11.5

3.0
12.9
13.8

3.1
14.5
16.0

3.2
16.1
18.2

3.3
17.5
20.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

156.4

241.2

331.3

427.1

524.5

616.7

701.0

780.7

859.5

940.0

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Land Use

Million ha
1451
3395
0
4138
4061
13045

1451
3395
0
4142
4057
13045

1454
3392
0
4170
4029
13045

1689
3160
0
4199
3997
13045

1809
3040
0
4231
3965
13045

1821
3029
0
4265
3930
13045

1912
2773
164
4310
3886
13045

1713
2609
528
4361
3835
13045

1527
2609
713
4408
3788
13045

1363
2609
877
4412
3784
13045

1240
2609
1000
4412
3784
13045

1145
2609
1095
4412
3784
13045

5.99
1.11
7.10

6.90
1.07
7.97

7.25
0.99
8.25

7.80
0.91
8.71

8.49
0.82
9.31

9.13
0.72
9.85

9.11
0.53
9.64

8.49
0.31
8.80

7.94
0.12
8.05

7.77
0.11
7.88

7.79
0.12
7.90

8.06
0.13
8.19

1672
32
38

883
25
40

784
29
36

291
32
37

257
33
47

298
37
58

338
42
68

337
47
71

333
45
62

327
43
46

315
46
43

299
45
43

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 164 of 241

B1 MARIA

Page 165 of 241

B1 MARIA
OECD90 - B1 MARIA

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

859

919

965

1007

1035

1046

1081

1085

1091

1096

1103

1110

15.6

19.6

24.7

31.0

36.4

43.3

50.6

55.3

60.3

66.5

72.2

78.3

12
71
28
21
0
132

8
74
27
26
0
136

6
66
44
29
0
145

4
60
58
32
0
155

3
59
66
34
0
162

2
58
71
37
0
168

1
57
77
39
0
175

1
78
59
41
0
179

1
72
68
42
0
182

0
66
76
44
0
186

0
62
81
46
0
189

0
59
85
47
0
191

38
71
34
18
6

28
74
47
15
4

21
66
72
12
3

16
60
94
11
2

12
59
107
13
1

10
58
117
15
1

8
57
115
19
1

7
78
99
21
1

6
72
106
26
2

5
66
112
32
3

4
61
116
40
4

4
57
117
48
7

5
171

5
171

4
178

4
187

3
196

3
204

14
214

14
221

16
227

17
235

16
242

16
248

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.7
0.3

0.7
1.5
0.8

0.9
2.1
1.5

1.0
2.7
2.5

1.1
3.3
3.5

1.2
3.9
4.7

1.3
4.5
5.8

1.4
5.2
6.8

1.5
6.0
7.9

1.5
6.6
9.0

1.6
7.2
10.2

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

62.5

95.9

130.4

166.0

201.4

236.4

271.7

306.8

341.6

376.0

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Land Use

Million ha
378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
768
782
2684

378
756
0
780
770
2684

378
756
0
780
770
2684

303
756
75
780
770
2684

243
756
134
780
770
2684

195
756
182
780
770
2684

2.83
0.00
2.83

3.20
0.00
3.20

3.25
0.03
3.27

3.35
0.05
3.40

3.43
0.08
3.51

3.50
0.11
3.61

3.40
0.05
3.46

3.55
-0.01
3.55

3.51
0.01
3.52

3.46
0.04
3.50

3.40
0.07
3.46

3.33
0.09
3.43

19
18
24

58
13
23

108
12
16

103
10
5

109
8
6

112
7
6

116
7
7

117
7
7

117
7
8

119
7
8

120
7
8

120
6
8

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 166 of 241

B1 MARIA
REF - B1 MARIA

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

413

419

427

433

432

430

423

406

391

374

356

339

0.9

1.1

1.5

1.9

2.6

3.6

5.2

6.2

7.9

10.3

13.0

16.5

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

13
17
21
7
0
58

9
12
20
7
0
48

6
11
23
7
0
47

4
10
25
6
0
45

3
10
30
7
0
49

2
10
35
7
0
54

2
10
40
8
0
60

1
10
41
8
0
60

1
9
43
9
0
62

1
9
46
9
0
65

0
12
45
9
0
67

0
20
39
10
0
68

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

19
19
27
3
1

13
13
27
2
1

9
12
30
2
0

6
10
32
1
0

4
10
39
2
0

3
10
45
2
0

2
10
50
3
0

2
10
51
3
0

1
9
53
4
0

1
9
55
5
0

1
12
54
6
1

0
20
47
8
1

1
69

1
57

1
54

1
51

1
56

1
61

3
68

3
68

3
71

3
74

3
77

3
80

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.3

0.3
0.3
0.5

0.4
0.4
0.8

0.5
0.5
1.2

0.5
0.6
1.6

0.5
0.7
2.0

0.6
0.8
2.5

0.6
0.9
3.0

0.6
1.0
3.5

0.6
1.1
4.1

0.6
1.2
4.6

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

19.8

27.9

36.1

44.9

54.4

64.0

73.4

82.9

93.0

103.6

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Land Use

Million ha
217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
815
722
1868

174
114
43
815
722
1868

139
114
78
815
722
1868

111
114
106
815
722
1868

89
114
128
815
722
1868

79
114
138
815
722
1868

1.30
0.00
1.30

0.91
0.00
0.91

0.82
0.02
0.83

0.76
0.03
0.79

0.80
0.05
0.85

0.86
0.06
0.93

0.91
0.06
0.97

0.90
0.04
0.94

0.91
0.02
0.94

0.94
0.04
0.98

0.97
0.05
1.03

1.02
0.07
1.09

0
7
8

4
4
6

9
6
4

15
6
7

20
7
7

24
8
8

26
9
9

27
10
9

27
9
7

27
8
6

27
8
4

26
8
4

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 167 of 241

B1 MARIA
ASIA - B1 MARIA
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2642

3080

3425

3728

3861

3895

4008

3814

3632

3368

3040

2744

1.2

2.0

3.4

5.9

10.1

17.0

28.8

39.0

52.6

70.5

97.3

126.4

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

20
26
2
4
0
52

14
33
3
7
0
57

10
49
4
8
0
72

7
68
8
11
0
93

5
86
14
13
0
118

3
107
21
16
0
147

2
131
24
23
0
180

2
152
17
24
0
194

1
165
12
29
0
207

1
178
8
35
0
221

1
186
11
42
0
240

0
187
19
45
0
251

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

28
14
3
1
13

20
22
5
1
20

14
30
7
3
27

10
39
11
2
41

7
49
17
2
55

5
56
23
6
72

3
61
25
13
85

2
49
18
18
114

2
46
13
38
127

1
45
9
61
138

1
45
12
79
145

1
46
19
87
144

1
61

1
68

1
81

1
104

1
129

1
163

17
204

20
222

20
245

20
274

20
301

20
315

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.1
0.0

0.5
0.4
0.1

0.6
0.7
0.2

0.7
1.1
0.3

0.8
1.5
0.4

0.8
2.1
0.7

0.9
2.7
0.9

0.9
3.2
1.1

0.9
3.7
1.2

0.9
4.1
1.3

0.9
4.6
1.4

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

38.0

58.6

80.5

103.9

128.7

151.9

172.4

191.6

210.2

229.3

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Land Use

Million ha
366
431
0
365
458
1621

366
431
0
367
456
1621

369
428
0
380
444
1621

380
420
0
390
430
1621

380
420
0
399
421
1621

380
420
0
407
414
1621

379
422
0
407
414
1621

375
387
39
407
414
1621

362
387
51
407
414
1621

326
387
88
407
414
1621

285
387
129
407
414
1621

248
387
166
407
414
1621

1.15
0.37
1.53

1.78
0.26
2.03

1.81
0.20
2.01

1.95
0.15
2.10

2.16
0.11
2.27

2.35
0.08
2.42

2.45
0.07
2.52

2.05
0.08
2.13

1.91
0.06
1.97

1.82
0.04
1.86

1.84
0.02
1.86

1.96
0.01
1.97

0
3
4

4
5
7

11
7
11

20
9
17

34
11
23

56
14
27

93
17
30

90
20
32

85
18
26

79
18
19

72
18
16

64
18
16

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 168 of 241

B1 MARIA
ALM - B1 MARIA
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1348

1699

2071

2449

2720

2836

3192

3231

3259

3190

3029

2864

1.7

2.7

4.6

7.2

10.9

16.8

25.6

35.3

49.0

67.1

93.0

127.4

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

3
24
5
3
0
35

2
29
4
6
0
40

2
41
7
9
0
60

1
51
19
13
0
84

1
61
32
16
0
110

1
73
44
20
0
138

0
90
56
28
0
175

0
110
57
32
0
199

0
122
49
35
0
207

0
148
35
43
0
225

0
150
48
53
0
252

0
182
36
62
0
280

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

6
18
7
0
8

4
25
12
0
6

3
38
19
0
7

2
49
32
0
12

1
59
42
0
19

1
68
51
3
31

1
58
61
9
51

0
40
61
27
83

0
28
52
47
102

0
38
36
76
116

0
29
50
111
126

0
47
37
140
139

2
41

2
48

1
69

1
95

1
123

1
155

22
202

25
236

25
254

24
290

24
339

24
386

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.2
0.1

0.1
0.4
0.2

0.1
0.8
0.4

0.1
1.3
0.7

0.2
1.9
1.1

0.2
2.6
1.6

0.2
3.2
2.3

0.2
3.6
2.9

0.2
3.8
3.4

0.2
4.2
3.7

0.2
4.5
4.2

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

36.1

58.8

84.4

112.2

140.1

164.5

183.5

199.3

214.8

231.1

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Land Use

Million ha
490
2095
0
2202
2086
6873

490
2095
0
2204
2084
6873

490
2095
0
2220
2068
6873

714
1870
0
2239
2050
6873

834
1750
0
2261
2027
6873

846
1739
0
2288
2000
6873

939
1482
164
2321
1967
6873

787
1352
445
2360
1928
6873

648
1352
584
2407
1881
6873

623
1352
609
2411
1878
6873

623
1352
609
2411
1878
6873

623
1352
609
2411
1878
6873

0.72
0.73
1.45

1.01
0.82
1.83

1.37
0.75
2.12

1.75
0.67
2.42

2.11
0.58
2.69

2.41
0.47
2.88

2.35
0.34
2.69

1.99
0.19
2.18

1.60
0.02
1.62

1.55
-0.01
1.54

1.58
-0.02
1.55

1.74
-0.04
1.70

0
4
2

2
4
5

16
5
5

28
6
8

42
7
12

64
8
17

98
9
22

102
11
24

102
11
21

101
11
14

96
12
14

89
12
14

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 169 of 241

B1 MINICAM
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B1 MINICAM
1990
Population

Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

5293

6100

6874

7618

8122

8484

8703

8623

8430

8126

7621

7137

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

20.7
na

27.4
na

37.5
na

51.0
na

73.0
na

100.7
na

134.1
na

172.7
na

211.9
na

251.8
na

289.9
na

330.8
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
45
121
52
35
0
253

0
50
112
57
46
0
264

0
55
109
66
63
0
294

0
60
113
82
85
0
341

0
66
113
86
113
0
378

0
66
123
86
147
0
421

0
61
142
81
185
0
469

0
43
152
78
219
0
493

0
32
162
78
247
0
518

0
25
172
79
270
0
546

0
24
176
81
272
0
553

0
22
181
84
273
0
561

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

88
131
70
24
0

98
120
76
22
5

107
116
100
24
9

113
119
144
29
13

131
115
162
41
17

136
123
169
49
20

127
144
165
54
23

93
156
160
51
26

68
167
155
46
27

51
177
148
38
24

49
183
149
40
23

47
188
151
41
22

24
336

24
345

28
384

33
451

44
509

76
573

129
642

185
672

234
696

277
716

257
701

238
687

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.1
0.1
0.1

1.1
1.4
0.8

2.1
2.6
1.8

3.2
3.7
2.9

4.4
4.9
4.5

5.7
6.1
6.1

7.1
7.4
7.8

8.1
8.9
9.4

8.9
10.6
11.0

9.5
12.3
12.5

10.0
14.1
14.0

10.5
15.9
15.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

157.1

246.7

345.0

445.3

542.3

634.2

719.3

794.0

858.8

915.5

1472
3209
0
4173
4310
13164

1467
3349
1
4214
4133
13164

1456
3590
2
4144
3972
13164

1439
3933
1
3963
3828
13164

1377
4240
1
3737
3810
13164

1287
4443
0
3611
3823
13164

1168
4544
0
3584
3868
13164

989
4268
0
4038
3870
13164

833
3976
0
4428
3928
13164

699
3668
0
4754
4043
13164

598
3522
0
4796
4250
13165

496
3375
0
4837
4458
13166

5.99
1.11

6.90
1.07

7.39
1.00

8.23
1.30

8.99
1.14

9.23
0.72

9.30
0.15

8.58
0.36

8.06
0.02

7.73
-0.86

7.83
-1.75

7.92
-2.64

7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38

7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40

8.38
351
8.1
69.0
784
29
36

9.53
399
9.5
69.0
291
32
37

10.13
439
11.1
65.6
257
33
47

9.94
483
13.0
57.1
298
37
58

9.45
512
14.8
43.7
338
42
68

8.94
506
15.4
30.4
337
47
71

8.08
505
16.1
21.6
333
45
62

6.87
510
16.8
17.3
327
43
46

6.07
535
18.5
16.9
315
46
43

5.28
561
20.2
16.6
299
45
43

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 170 of 241

B1 MINICAM

Page 171 of 241

B1 MINICAM
OECD90 - B1 MINICAM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

838

908

965

1007

1024

1066

1081

1084

1090

1098

1105

1112

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

16.3
na

20.5
na

25.1
na

30.1
na

32.0
na

38.8
na

44.6
na

50.3
na

56.5
na

63.2
na

71.0
na

79.3
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
10
72
27
22
0
130

0
11
63
31
24
0
128

0
10
55
36
25
0
126

0
7
48
41
27
0
123

0
7
43
39
28
0
117

0
6
34
35
31
0
107

0
6
35
32
35
0
108

0
5
35
30
38
0
108

0
4
36
30
42
0
112

0
3
38
32
46
0
118

0
3
39
33
47
0
122

0
3
41
35
47
0
126

40
76
34
20
0

38
67
40
13
2

32
58
50
9
3

22
49
64
8
3

22
43
61
8
3

23
32
54
8
3

23
32
49
7
3

18
33
46
7
3

13
35
45
6
4

9
38
45
6
3

10
40
47
6
3

11
41
49
7
3

12
182

11
171

10
162

10
155

10
148

14
133

20
134

27
134

34
137

42
143

41
147

39
150

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.1
0.0

0.4
0.8
0.4

0.8
1.4
0.9

1.1
1.9
1.4

1.2
2.1
1.7

1.5
2.7
2.6

1.7
3.0
3.1

1.9
3.3
3.6

2.1
3.7
4.0

2.2
4.0
4.5

2.3
4.4
4.9

2.4
4.8
5.4

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

61.8

92.5

121.6

148.0

171.6

193.8

214.8

233.9

251.1

266.9

408
796
0
921
998
3123

410
821
1
931
959
3123

407
867
1
923
925
3123

399
933
0
897
894
3123

386
960
0
883
893
3123

343
1022
0
862
896
3123

305
1037
0
873
907
3123

259
988
0
968
908
3123

221
939
0
1040
922
3123

193
891
0
1090
949
3123

158
850
0
1117
998
3123

124
809
0
1145
1046
3124

2.83
0.00

3.20
0.00

3.04
0.10

2.83
0.16

2.71
0.13

2.43
0.00

2.37
-0.09

2.23
-0.05

2.13
-0.11

2.08
-0.28

2.16
-0.51

2.24
-0.74

2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
24

3.20
74
2.6
17.0
58
13
23

3.14
82
2.8
12.2
108
12
16

2.99
93
3.1
6.8
103
10
5

2.84
100
3.2
5.8
109
8
6

2.43
119
3.8
4.9
112
7
6

2.28
132
4.1
4.2
116
7
7

2.17
140
4.3
3.7
117
7
7

2.02
143
4.4
3.4
117
7
8

1.80
143
4.7
3.4
119
7
8

1.65
155
4.9
3.6
120
7
8

1.50
167
5.1
3.8
120
6
8

Population

Million

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 172 of 241

B1 MINICAM
REF - B1 MINICAM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

428

425

426

433

434

431

423

408

392

374

357

340

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.1
na

1.1
na

1.4
na

2.0
na

3.0
na

4.1
na

5.3
na

7.1
na

9.2
na

11.5
na

13.4
na

15.6
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
13
18
19
6
0
56

0
10
12
15
8
0
44

0
8
8
14
11
0
40

0
7
8
16
15
0
46

0
6
8
16
17
0
47

0
5
8
14
19
0
46

0
4
7
12
21
0
45

0
3
7
10
22
0
42

0
2
7
9
23
0
40

0
2
6
8
22
0
38

0
1
6
8
21
0
36

0
1
6
7
20
0
34

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

18
20
26
3
0

17
13
20
4
1

16
10
20
5
1

15
10
28
7
2

16
9
28
7
2

16
8
26
7
2

15
8
21
6
2

9
8
18
5
2

6
8
15
4
2

5
7
13
3
2

4
7
12
3
2

3
6
11
3
2

3
70

3
57

4
56

5
66

6
68

10
69

16
69

20
63

23
58

24
54

21
49

19
44

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.2

0.3
0.3
0.5

0.5
0.4
0.7

0.7
0.5
1.0

0.8
0.6
1.2

1.0
0.6
1.5

1.1
0.7
1.7

1.2
0.8
1.8

1.2
0.9
2.0

1.3
1.0
2.1

1.3
1.0
2.2

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

19.9

29.3

39.5

49.3

57.9

65.3

71.6

76.1

78.7

80.1

284
395
0
1007
691
2377

294
410
0
1016
657
2377

300
452
0
997
628
2377

304
522
0
948
604
2377

295
587
0
893
602
2377

278
627
0
867
606
2377

251
643
0
869
614
2377

205
564
0
994
615
2377

166
493
0
1093
626
2377

133
430
0
1167
647
2377

117
428
0
1147
685
2377

101
426
0
1127
724
2377

1.30
0.00

0.91
0.00

0.83
0.03

0.93
0.08

0.94
0.09

0.89
0.06

0.78
-0.01

0.60
0.10

0.48
0.08

0.40
-0.07

0.38
-0.17

0.35
-0.28

1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8

0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6

0.86
46
0.7
9.6
9
6
4

1.01
60
0.9
8.9
15
6
7

1.03
70
1.2
9.5
20
7
7

0.95
78
1.4
8.6
24
8
8

0.77
84
1.6
6.5
26
9
9

0.71
78
1.6
3.6
27
10
9

0.56
78
1.6
1.8
27
9
7

0.33
84
1.6
1.0
27
8
6

0.20
90
1.8
1.2
27
8
4

0.07
97
2.0
1.3
26
8
4

Population

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 173 of 241

B1 MINICAM
ASIA - B1 MINICAM
Population

1990
Million

2790

2000
3226

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

3608

3937

4115

4210

4219

4062

3852

3589

3245

2919

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.4
na

3.1
na

6.4
na

11.5
na

21.7
na

34.1
na

48.6
na

63.3
na

77.6
na

91.5
na

103.9
na

117.1
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
20
14
2
4
0
40

0
27
18
5
10
0
59

0
34
23
8
19
0
84

0
42
29
13
32
0
115

0
46
34
15
47
0
141

0
46
40
16
63
0
165

0
41
47
16
81
0
185

0
29
50
16
95
0
189

0
20
53
15
105
0
194

0
16
55
15
113
0
200

0
14
55
15
111
0
196

0
13
55
15
109
0
193

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

26
16
3
1
0

39
19
8
3
2

53
25
18
7
4

68
32
33
11
7

79
35
44
18
9

79
41
51
23
11

68
49
54
26
12

47
53
52
24
14

33
56
48
21
14

25
57
44
17
13

22
58
43
17
12

20
58
42
17
11

3
49

4
75

5
111

7
157

12
197

28
232

54
263

79
269

100
272

117
272

105
257

94
242

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.2
0.1

0.9
0.4
0.2

1.4
0.7
0.4

2.2
1.0
0.9

3.0
1.4
1.3

3.7
1.9
1.9

4.2
2.4
2.4

4.6
2.9
2.9

4.9
3.5
3.3

5.2
4.1
3.8

5.4
4.6
4.2

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

40.7

70.1

105.6

144.3

182.7

217.8

248.3

274.5

297.7

318.9

389
508
0
1168
664
2729

400
524
0
1144
633
2700

406
554
0
1108
606
2674

408
600
1
1060
584
2652

399
641
1
1027
583
2650

381
671
0
1012
587
2651

354
691
0
1017
596
2657

302
673
0
1086
597
2659

255
648
0
1159
608
2671

213
615
0
1236
628
2692

186
593
0
1283
665
2728

160
572
0
1330
701
2763

1.15
0.37

1.78
0.26

2.36
0.19

3.08
0.24

3.58
0.22

3.78
0.16

3.68
0.07

3.20
0.07

2.84
-0.01

2.59
-0.16

2.52
-0.30

2.46
-0.45

1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4

2.03
125
2.6
25.3
4
5
7

2.55
133
2.9
31.2
11
7
11

3.32
144
3.3
36.9
20
9
17

3.79
154
3.8
34.1
34
11
23

3.94
161
4.3
27.8
56
14
27

3.75
165
4.8
18.0
93
17
30

3.27
158
5.0
11.1
90
20
32

2.83
153
5.1
6.7
85
18
26

2.42
148
5.3
4.7
79
18
19

2.22
149
5.8
4.4
72
18
16

2.01
150
6.4
4.1
64
18
16

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 174 of 241

B1 MINICAM
ALM - B1 MINICAM
Population

1990
Million

1236

2000
1541

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1876

2241

2531

2778

2980

3068

3096

3064

2913

2766

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.9
na

2.8
na

4.6
na

7.4
na

14.4
na

23.7
na

35.6
na

52.0
na

68.6
na

85.6
na

101.5
na

118.8
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
2
17
5
3
0
27

0
3
19
6
5
0
33

0
4
23
9
8
0
43

0
5
28
13
12
0
57

0
7
33
18
21
0
79

0
8
41
21
33
0
103

0
9
52
22
48
0
131

0
7
60
22
63
0
153

0
6
67
23
77
0
172

0
5
73
24
89
0
190

0
5
76
25
93
0
199

0
5
80
27
96
0
207

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

4
20
7
0
0

5
20
8
2
0

6
23
13
3
1

8
29
20
4
2

14
33
30
8
3

18
42
38
11
4

21
54
42
14
5

18
62
44
15
7

15
69
46
14
7

13
75
46
13
7

13
79
48
14
6

13
83
49
14
6

5
35

6
42

8
55

11
73

15
103

24
138

39
176

59
205

77
229

94
247

89
249

85
251

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.2
0.1

0.1
0.4
0.2

0.2
0.7
0.3

0.3
1.0
0.6

0.5
1.4
1.0

0.7
1.9
1.4

0.8
2.5
1.8

1.0
3.1
2.2

1.2
3.8
2.7

1.3
4.6
3.2

1.4
5.4
3.6

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

34.7

54.8

78.2

103.7

130.1

157.3

184.6

209.6

231.2

249.7

391
1510
0
3641
1957
7499

363
1594
0
3591
1884
7432

342
1717
0
3493
1813
7366

329
1879
0
3348
1746
7301

309
2025
0
3218
1733
7285

285
2123
0
3137
1734
7280

258
2174
0
3105
1750
7286

223
2043
0
3271
1749
7286

190
1897
0
3453
1771
7311

160
1733
0
3650
1818
7361

136
1651
0
3756
1902
7445

111
1568
0
3862
1987
7528

0.72
0.73

1.01
0.82

1.15
0.68

1.38
0.82

1.77
0.71

2.13
0.49

2.48
0.18

2.55
0.24

2.62
0.06

2.67
-0.35

2.77
-0.76

2.87
-1.17

1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
2

1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5

1.83
90
1.7
13.0
16
5
5

2.20
102
2.2
13.4
28
6
8

2.47
116
2.9
13.3
42
7
12

2.62
126
3.6
12.8
64
8
17

2.65
131
4.2
12.0
98
9
22

2.79
131
4.6
9.0
102
11
24

2.67
132
5.0
6.7
102
11
21

2.31
135
5.3
5.2
101
11
14

2.01
141
6.0
4.8
96
12
14

1.70
147
6.6
4.4
89
12
14

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 175 of 241

B1T MESSAGE
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B1T MESSAGE
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Population

5262

6117

6888

7617

8182

8531

8704

8667

8463

8125

7658

7056

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

20.9
25.7

26.8
33.3

36.2
44.6

52.1
61.6

73.1
82.2

100.7
108.4

135.6
140.0

171.6
171.8

208.5
204.1

249.8
242.5

290.0
281.3

328.4
318.8

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

38
42
111
41
35
8
275

27
51
123
47
44
10
303

22
58
158
63
62
16
379

16
52
192
73
89
27
449

10
47
224
87
120
36
524

8
38
250
101
151
47
593

6
21
261
97
174
57
616

0
16
244
92
196
68
616

0
6
215
76
204
84
586

0
2
191
52
208
96
548

0
1
156
41
203
103
503

0
1
131
33
193
95
452

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

91
128
71
7
46

91
155
84
8
45

109
172
119
11
53

109
189
159
16
68

98
203
212
27
86

77
197
258
43
107

39
190
258
48
123

19
159
258
42
138

7
124
234
24
148

4
96
210
17
148

2
68
183
18
138

2
48
166
21
128

8
352

13
395

24
488

43
583

62
687

97
779

161
819

230
846

303
840

347
822

372
780

348
714

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.9
1.4
0.7

1.8
3.0
1.6

2.9
4.7
2.8

4.0
6.6
4.3

5.0
8.6
6.5

5.8
10.6
9.0

6.1
12.5
11.6

6.3
14.1
14.2

6.4
15.3
16.5

6.4
16.3
18.6

6.5
16.9
20.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

160.5

251.1

342.1

432.4

516.2

588.4

648.3

696.7

735.2

765.4

1459
3389
0
4296
3805
12949

1466
3407
0

1464
3432
0

1461
3453
59

1458
3474
137

1452
3510
196

1447
3547
254

1442
3591
260

1437
3635
266

1433
3668
261

1431
3688
243

1429
3709
225

4255
3820
12949

4231
3822
12949

4264
3711
12949

4335
3545
12949

4405
3386
12949

4475
3226
12949

4522
3133
12949

4570
3040
12949

4619
2968
12949

4669
2918
12949

4719
2868
12949

8.26
0.79
9.05
357
6.0
64.7
784
29
36
1000
164
39

9.11
-0.03
9.08
387
5.8
52.4
291
32
37
1129
183
45

9.77
-0.65
9.11
426
5.7
44.5
257
33
47
1271
192
51

9.61
-0.66
8.95
455
5.7
37.8
298
37
58
1414
199
53

8.48
-0.67
7.81
465
5.6
30.3
338
42
68
1460
194
49

7.26
-0.62
6.63
446
5.6
25.0
337
47
71
1426
171
44

5.92
-0.57
5.35
427
5.5
19.2
333
45
62
1333
143
36

4.92
-0.57
4.35
385
5.4
15.9
327
43
46
1192
114
28

3.96
-0.61
3.35
326
5.4
13.3
315
46
43
1063
87
21

3.33
-0.65
2.68
268
5.3
11.4
299
45
43
966
68
16

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run

5.99
1.11
7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38
879
139
31

6.90
1.07
7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40
877
141
32

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data
Page 176 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run

B1T MESSAGE

Page 177 of 241

B1T MESSAGE
OECD90 - B1T MESSAGE

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

859

919

965

1007

1043

1069

1081

1084

1089

1098

1108

1110

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

16.4
14.1

20.6
17.7

26.0
22.4

32.4
28.1

38.3
33.3

43.9
38.3

49.9
43.6

55.4
48.5

59.8
52.5

66.3
58.4

73.9
65.1

82.3
72.7

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
13
66
22
22
1
124

0
10
69
28
28
1
136

0
6
74
34
36
2
151

0
3
72
35
44
5
158

0
1
64
38
50
5
158

0
0
58
36
53
5
153

0
0
55
28
56
6
145

0
0
52
21
57
7
137

0
0
48
14
59
8
129

0
0
45
11
61
8
124

0
0
41
9
63
7
120

0
0
37
7
63
7
114

38
72
33
6
6

33
84
45
7
8

35
81
58
8
10

35
71
67
10
14

30
56
76
15
16

14
45
75
27
17

5
36
73
30
19

3
30
70
23
23

1
24
74
8
27

1
18
71
3
33

0
14
62
6
37

0
10
53
8
42

4
159

5
182

9
200

14
211

17
211

22
200

31
194

41
189

55
188

61
186

64
182

64
176

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.8
0.4

0.7
1.6
0.8

1.1
2.4
1.4

1.4
3.1
2.1

1.7
3.7
2.8

1.8
4.2
3.5

1.8
4.5
4.2

1.8
4.8
4.9

1.8
5.1
5.6

1.8
5.2
6.2

1.8
5.4
6.8

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

62.6

94.8

124.4

148.7

167.5

183.6

198.7

212.8

224.6

233.7

381
760
0
1050
838
3029

380
765
0

378
772
0

376
779
10

374
787
23

370
809
33

366
832
44

361
862
45

357
893
46

354
912
45

353
918
42

352
924
39

1059
826
3029

1074
805
3029

1094
770
3029

1117
728
3029

1133
684
3029

1149
639
3029

1154
607
3029

1159
574
3029

1167
551
3029

1179
537
3029

1192
522
3029

3.37
-0.07
3.29
72
2.4
8.9
108
12
16
177
38
14

3.28
-0.13
3.15
70
2.4
2.4
103
10
5
183
37
14

2.93
-0.16
2.77
67
2.3
0.4
109
8
6
167
32
13

2.22
-0.14
2.08
62
2.3
0.4
112
7
6
151
27
11

1.80
-0.12
1.69
58
2.3
0.4
116
7
7
137
24
9

1.61
-0.08
1.53
55
2.2
0.4
117
7
7
129
22
7

1.54
-0.04
1.50
52
2.2
0.1
117
7
8
119
20
6

1.36
-0.04
1.32
51
2.2
0.5
119
7
8
113
18
4

1.12
-0.08
1.04
50
2.1
1.1
120
7
8
104
14
2

0.90
-0.12
0.78
49
2.1
1.6
120
6
8
103
10
1

Population

Million

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run

2.83
0.00
2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
24
179
42
13

3.20
0.00
3.20
74
2.6
17.0
58
13
23
161
36
12

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data

Page 178 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run

B1T MESSAGE
REF - B1T MESSAGE

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

413

419

427

433

435

433

423

409

392

374

357

339

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.1
2.6

0.8
2.2

1.1
2.6

1.7
3.3

2.8
4.3

4.3
5.3

6.2
6.4

8.2
8.2

10.3
10.3

12.8
12.8

15.3
15.3

18.1
18.1

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
9
15
14
6
7
50

0
5
10
10
5
6
36

0
3
10
12
6
6
37

0
2
13
12
7
7
40

0
1
14
12
9
7
43

0
0
16
12
12
7
47

0
0
18
9
14
7
48

0
0
17
7
15
7
45

0
0
14
5
15
6
41

0
0
13
4
15
6
38

0
0
12
3
15
5
35

0
0
10
2
15
5
32

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

19
20
27
1
2

12
14
21
1
1

9
13
25
1
1

6
15
28
1
1

3
16
33
1
1

1
16
39
1
2

-1
18
39
1
4

0
16
38
1
6

0
11
39
0
7

0
9
39
0
8

0
7
34
0
9

0
5
30
0
9

1
70

1
51

1
50

3
53

4
58

5
65

6
67

8
68

8
66

9
64

9
59

10
54

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.3

0.3
0.3
0.5

0.4
0.5
0.7

0.4
0.6
1.0

0.5
0.8
1.3

0.5
0.9
1.7

0.5
1.1
2.1

0.5
1.3
2.5

0.5
1.4
3.0

0.5
1.5
3.4

0.5
1.5
3.8

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

20.1

28.2

35.5

42.5

48.7

54.7

60.7

66.6

72.0

76.3

268
341
0
966
701
2276

266
362
0

266
364
0

266
366
9

265
368
20

265
370
29

264
372
37

264
374
38

263
376
39

263
378
38

263
380
35

262
382
33

951
696
2276

934
711
2276

933
702
2276

934
688
2276

954
659
2276

973
630
2276

983
617
2276

993
604
2276

1005
592
2276

1018
580
2276

1031
568
2276

0.86
0.04
0.90
40
0.6
7.2
9
6
4
46
15
3

0.84
-0.11
0.72
41
0.6
4.7
15
6
7
50
18
3

0.86
-0.12
0.74
44
0.6
3.0
20
7
7
58
21
4

0.86
-0.20
0.66
46
0.6
2.1
24
8
8
72
25
4

0.86
-0.28
0.59
45
0.6
1.3
26
9
9
81
28
4

0.83
-0.23
0.60
40
0.6
1.1
27
10
9
72
27
4

0.78
-0.17
0.61
35
0.6
0.8
27
9
7
54
26
3

0.73
-0.15
0.58
31
0.6
0.6
27
8
6
48
25
2

0.62
-0.14
0.48
28
0.6
0.5
27
8
4
35
19
2

0.52
-0.14
0.38
25
0.6
0.4
26
8
4
25
14
1

Population

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run

1.30
0.00
1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8
69
16
5

0.91
0.00
0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6
41
13
3

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data

Page 179 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run

B1T MESSAGE
ASIA - B1T MESSAGE
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2798

3261

3620

3937

4147

4238

4220

4085

3867

3589

3258

2882

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.5
5.3

2.7
8.2

4.8
12.0

8.7
17.3

15.1
24.6

24.9
34.1

37.9
46.1

51.4
57.4

64.8
67.7

78.7
79.3

91.7
91.7

103.1
103.1

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

24
19
13
2
4
1
62

16
32
22
3
6
2
82

12
45
37
7
12
5
117

8
42
55
11
21
9
145

5
39
73
13
32
12
173

3
31
94
17
44
15
203

2
17
99
20
49
16
204

0
13
92
25
57
20
206

0
5
82
23
59
24
193

0
1
74
15
60
27
176

0
0
62
10
58
30
159

0
0
50
8
53
28
139

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

30
15
3
0
24

42
26
5
1
22

57
39
13
2
25

58
53
24
3
30

49
67
35
7
39

44
71
48
9
50

24
71
48
10
53

12
58
48
11
61

4
47
45
9
61

2
37
38
8
62

1
26
31
7
59

0
18
24
7
50

1
74

3
98

6
142

12
179

20
217

33
255

53
258

75
266

92
259

101
249

113
237

110
208

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.2
0.0

0.7
0.4
0.1

1.3
0.8
0.2

1.9
1.4
0.5

2.4
2.0
0.8

2.8
2.7
1.3

3.1
3.4
1.8

3.2
4.0
2.3

3.2
4.5
2.7

3.3
4.9
3.1

3.3
5.1
3.4

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

41.9

69.9

99.3

130.3

159.5

183.1

200.7

213.9

223.9

231.4

438
608
0
535
583
2164

435
606
0

435
609
0

435
612
12

434
614
28

434
617
40

434
619
52

434
622
54

433
625
55

433
628
54

433
631
50

433
634
46

525
598
2164

518
602
2164

535
571
2164

551
536
2164

557
516
2164

563
496
2164

578
477
2164

593
458
2164

604
446
2164

610
441
2164

616
436
2164

2.58
0.20
2.78
146
2.3
30.9
11
7
11
343
48
12

3.01
-0.17
2.84
163
2.3
27.3
20
9
17
422
56
15

3.21
-0.18
3.04
183
2.3
22.9
34
11
23
523
60
18

3.26
-0.10
3.16
196
2.3
18.2
56
14
27
624
64
19

2.72
-0.03
2.69
203
2.2
12.4
93
17
30
654
61
17

2.13
-0.10
2.03
197
2.2
9.0
90
20
32
661
53
15

1.66
-0.17
1.49
192
2.2
6.3
85
18
26
622
43
13

1.32
-0.18
1.14
172
2.2
4.6
79
18
19
558
30
10

1.00
-0.14
0.86
138
2.2
3.2
72
18
16
512
21
8

0.75
-0.10
0.65
105
2.2
2.2
64
18
16
451
16
6

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run

1.15
0.37
1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4
235
33
7

1.78
0.26
2.03
125
2.6
25.3
4
5
7
270
37
9

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data

Page 180 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run

B1T MESSAGE
ALM - B1T MESSAGE
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1192

1519

1875

2241

2557

2791

2980

3089

3115

3064

2934

2727

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.9
3.8

2.7
5.1

4.4
7.6

9.3
12.8

17.0
20.1

27.6
30.6

41.6
44.0

56.7
57.8

73.6
73.6

92.0
92.0

109.1
109.1

124.8
124.8

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

14
1
17
4
3
0
39

11
4
22
6
5
1
49

11
4
37
10
9
3
73

8
5
53
15
18
7
106

6
7
72
24
29
12
149

4
6
82
36
42
19
190

3
4
90
40
55
27
219

0
3
83
39
68
34
228

0
1
72
34
71
46
224

0
1
59
22
72
56
210

0
1
42
19
68
61
190

0
1
33
16
62
56
168

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

5
21
8
0
14

4
30
12
0
14

8
40
23
1
17

11
50
39
2
24

15
64
68
4
30

18
65
96
5
37

11
66
98
7
47

5
55
101
8
48

2
42
76
8
53

2
32
62
6
46

1
22
56
5
32

2
15
60
7
27

2
49

4
65

7
96

14
140

21
201

37
259

70
300

106
322

148
328

176
322

186
302

165
275

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.3
0.1

0.1
0.6
0.2

0.2
1.0
0.4

0.3
1.5
0.8

0.4
2.1
1.5

0.6
2.7
2.5

0.7
3.4
3.5

0.8
4.0
4.5

0.8
4.4
5.3

0.8
4.7
5.9

0.8
4.9
6.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

35.9

58.2

82.9

111.0

140.4

167.0

188.1

203.4

214.8

224.0

371
1680
0
1745
1684
5480

385
1675
0

385
1686
0

385
1696
29

384
1705
66

384
1714
93

383
1723
121

383
1732
124

383
1741
127

383
1750
124

382
1760
116

382
1769
107

1720
1700
5480

1704
1704
5480

1702
1669
5480

1732
1593
5480

1761
1527
5480

1790
1461
5480

1808
1432
5480

1825
1403
5480

1843
1379
5480

1862
1361
5480

1880
1342
5480

1.46
0.62
2.08
98
0.7
14.8
16
5
5
434
64
10

1.98
0.38
2.36
112
0.6
15.0
28
6
8
475
72
13

2.76
-0.19
2.57
133
0.5
15.2
42
7
12
522
80
16

3.27
-0.22
3.05
151
0.5
14.1
64
8
17
568
83
19

3.09
-0.25
2.85
159
0.5
13.1
98
9
22
588
81
19

2.69
-0.22
2.47
154
0.5
11.4
102
11
24
564
68
18

1.94
-0.19
1.75
148
0.5
9.0
102
11
21
538
54
14

1.50
-0.20
1.31
132
0.5
7.1
101
11
14
473
41
11

1.22
-0.24
0.97
110
0.5
5.4
96
12
14
412
33
10

1.16
-0.29
0.87
89
0.5
4.1
89
12
14
387
28
8

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run

0.72
0.73
1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
2
396
48
7

1.01
0.82
1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5
404
55
8

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data

Page 181 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run

B1HIGH MESSAGE
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B1HIGH MESSAGE
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Population

5262

6117

6888

7617

8182

8531

8704

8667

8463

8125

7658

7056

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

20.9
25.7

26.8
33.3

36.7
45.7

56.5
66.9

88.5
96.0

126.0
130.3

166.0
166.8

212.3
208.9

253.8
246.1

290.1
281.7

322.7
313.4

350.3
340.2

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

38
42
111
41
35
8
275

25
52
123
47
44
10
302

20
54
152
58
57
17
359

16
58
180
66
83
32
434

10
58
212
71
116
52
519

8
44
238
75
152
76
593

6
29
259
74
186
104
659

0
24
262
67
231
139
723

0
14
242
62
264
173
755

0
11
208
58
291
201
768

0
2
179
53
307
218
758

0
1
161
45
313
213
732

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

91
128
71
7
46

91
155
83
8
44

100
172
110
10
47

111
188
149
14
60

103
204
215
20
79

87
197
273
30
101

64
191
306
45
123

50
162
324
66
159

43
139
304
79
203

47
100
287
81
245

60
70
263
80
280

60
53
244
82
316

8
352

13
393

21
460

39
560

63
682

112
798

183
911

272
1033

348
1117

406
1167

431
1184

404
1157

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.9
1.4
0.7

1.8
3.0
1.6

2.8
4.7
2.7

3.9
6.6
4.1

5.0
8.6
6.3

5.8
10.6
9.0

6.5
12.5
12.1

7.0
14.1
15.3

7.4
15.5
18.4

7.9
16.5
21.2

8.5
17.2
23.9

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

158.6

246.9

338.3

432.9

528.1

620.1

704.9

780.4

847.6

907.9

1459
3389
0
4296
3805
12949

1466
3407
0

1464
3432
0

1461
3453
59

1458
3474
137

1452
3510
196

1447
3547
254

1442
3591
260

1437
3635
266

1433
3668
261

1431
3688
243

1429
3709
225

4255
3820
12949

4231
3822
12949

4264
3711
12949

4335
3545
12949

4405
3386
12949

4475
3226
12949

4522
3133
12949

4570
3040
12949

4619
2968
12949

4669
2918
12949

4719
2868
12949

7.90
0.79
8.69
351
6.0
62.0
784
29
36
951
157
37

8.99
-0.03
8.96
385
5.8
53.8
291
32
37
1065
177
42

9.97
-0.65
9.32
423
5.7
48.1
257
33
47
1193
184
47

10.27
-0.66
9.61
449
5.7
40.4
298
37
58
1323
190
47

10.11
-0.67
9.44
468
5.6
33.3
338
42
68
1470
199
45

9.57
-0.62
8.94
452
5.5
26.9
337
47
71
1549
185
40

8.60
-0.57
8.03
441
5.5
24.1
333
45
62
1658
173
35

7.63
-0.57
7.06
411
5.4
20.6
327
43
46
1731
152
29

6.99
-0.61
6.38
359
5.4
17.8
315
46
43
1793
125
26

6.33
-0.65
5.68
302
5.4
15.5
299
45
43
1871
103
23

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run

5.99
1.11
7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38
879
139
31

6.90
1.07
7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40
877
141
32

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data
Page 182 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run

B1HIGH MESSAGE

Page 183 of 241

B1HIGH MESSAGE
OECD90 - B1HIGH MESSAGE

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Population

859

919

965

1007

1043

1069

1081

1084

1089

1098

1108

1110

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

16.4
14.1

20.6
17.7

25.5
22.1

31.1
27.0

37.2
32.4

43.5
37.9

49.8
43.5

56.2
49.2

63.0
55.3

70.5
62.1

78.6
69.3

86.9
76.8

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
13
66
22
22
1
124

0
10
69
28
28
1
136

0
5
75
31
34
1
146

0
2
75
30
42
5
155

0
1
73
31
50
7
162

0
0
70
30
58
9
168

0
0
71
25
64
11
171

0
0
68
20
70
15
173

0
0
66
14
76
17
174

0
0
62
12
83
19
175

0
0
58
10
88
19
175

0
0
55
7
92
18
173

38
72
33
6
6

33
84
45
7
8

34
83
53
8
8

35
75
62
9
13

30
64
81
11
17

14
55
91
16
20

7
48
95
27
23

7
38
86
42
31

4
31
90
50
40

1
24
104
47
50

1
18
114
38
62

1
14
116
32
68

4
159

5
182

8
194

13
207

17
220

27
224

34
233

37
240

37
252

39
264

41
275

43
274

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.8
0.4

0.7
1.6
0.8

1.0
2.5
1.3

1.4
3.2
2.0

1.7
3.8
2.8

1.8
4.4
3.7

1.9
4.9
4.6

2.0
5.3
5.5

2.0
5.6
6.5

2.0
5.8
7.5

2.0
6.0
8.7

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

62.4

94.3

124.9

152.7

177.3

199.4

219.6

239.1

258.4

277.3

381
760
0
1050
838
3029

380
765
0

378
772
0

376
779
10

374
787
23

370
809
33

366
832
44

361
862
45

357
893
46

354
912
45

353
918
42

352
924
39

1059
826
3029

1074
805
3029

1094
770
3029

1117
728
3029

1133
684
3029

1149
639
3029

1154
607
3029

1159
574
3029

1167
551
3029

1179
537
3029

1192
522
3029

3.32
-0.07
3.25
71
2.4
9.1
108
12
16
166
36
13

3.27
-0.13
3.14
69
2.3
2.2
103
10
5
170
35
13

3.14
-0.16
2.98
66
2.3
0.6
109
8
6
163
32
13

2.73
-0.14
2.59
62
2.3
0.6
112
7
6
162
31
11

2.46
-0.12
2.34
59
2.3
0.6
116
7
7
157
30
9

2.16
-0.08
2.08
56
2.2
0.0
117
7
7
164
29
7

2.00
-0.04
1.96
53
2.2
0.5
117
7
8
171
29
6

1.99
-0.04
1.94
53
2.2
0.9
119
7
8
177
29
4

2.01
-0.08
1.93
53
2.1
1.5
120
7
8
180
24
3

1.96
-0.12
1.84
53
2.1
1.9
120
6
8
166
18
2

Million

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run

2.83
0.00
2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
24
179
42
13

3.20
0.00
3.20
74
2.6
17.0
58
13
23
161
36
12

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data

Page 184 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run

B1HIGH MESSAGE
REF - B1HIGH MESSAGE

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

413

419

427

433

435

433

423

409

392

374

357

339

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.1
2.6

0.8
2.2

1.0
2.5

2.0
3.6

4.9
5.7

7.9
7.9

9.9
9.9

11.9
11.9

13.8
13.8

15.6
15.6

17.4
17.4

19.0
19.0

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
9
15
14
6
7
50

0
5
10
10
5
6
36

0
3
11
11
6
6
37

0
2
14
11
7
7
42

0
1
17
11
10
9
48

0
0
17
10
12
9
48

0
0
15
8
14
9
47

0
0
14
5
15
10
45

0
0
14
4
16
11
45

0
0
12
4
17
11
43

0
0
11
3
18
10
41

0
0
10
2
18
8
38

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

19
20
27
1
2

13
14
20
1
1

9
13
23
1
1

6
16
28
0
1

4
18
35
0
2

3
16
40
0
3

3
13
44
0
3

3
11
49
0
3

4
10
50
1
5

5
8
46
1
8

5
8
37
2
13

4
7
27
2
18

1
70

1
50

2
48

3
55

4
64

5
68

6
70

8
74

9
78

11
77

12
76

13
71

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.3

0.3
0.3
0.5

0.4
0.5
0.7

0.4
0.6
1.0

0.5
0.8
1.3

0.5
1.0
1.8

0.6
1.1
2.2

0.6
1.2
2.8

0.6
1.3
3.4

0.7
1.4
3.9

0.7
1.5
4.4

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

20.0

28.1

36.1

44.0

51.2

58.4

66.4

74.5

81.7

87.4

268
341
0
966
701
2276

266
362
0

266
364
0

266
366
9

265
368
20

265
370
29

264
372
37

264
374
38

263
376
39

263
378
38

263
380
35

262
382
33

951
696
2276

934
711
2276

933
702
2276

934
688
2276

954
659
2276

973
630
2276

983
617
2276

993
604
2276

1005
592
2276

1018
580
2276

1031
568
2276

0.84
0.04
0.88
39
0.6
7.1
9
6
4
44
15
3

0.87
-0.11
0.76
41
0.6
4.6
15
6
7
49
18
4

0.96
-0.12
0.84
43
0.6
3.0
20
7
7
58
21
4

0.95
-0.20
0.75
45
0.6
1.7
24
8
8
63
23
4

0.96
-0.28
0.69
46
0.6
2.0
26
9
9
60
25
4

0.98
-0.23
0.76
41
0.6
1.9
27
10
9
53
27
3

1.01
-0.17
0.84
38
0.6
2.7
27
9
7
49
30
2

0.93
-0.15
0.78
36
0.6
3.2
27
8
6
40
30
2

0.79
-0.14
0.65
32
0.6
3.4
27
8
4
35
23
1

0.62
-0.14
0.48
27
0.6
2.8
26
8
4
33
15
1

Population

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run

1.30
0.00
1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8
69
16
5

0.91
0.00
0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6
41
13
3

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data

Page 185 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run

B1HIGH MESSAGE
ASIA - B1HIGH MESSAGE
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2798

3261

3620

3937

4147

4238

4220

4085

3867

3589

3258

2882

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.5
5.3

2.7
8.3

5.9
13.7

14.0
23.5

28.0
36.7

44.1
51.2

60.5
65.4

81.5
84.4

99.6
99.6

112.8
112.8

123.9
123.9

131.7
131.7

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

24
19
13
2
4
1
62

15
33
22
3
6
2
82

12
42
37
7
11
6
114

8
49
55
11
21
11
155

5
52
74
13
35
21
198

3
39
94
16
49
31
234

2
26
111
18
63
44
264

0
21
113
17
83
59
293

0
13
106
17
96
75
306

0
10
85
16
104
86
302

0
1
68
17
107
95
288

0
0
58
16
106
91
271

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

30
15
3
0
24

41
26
5
1
22

52
40
14
1
25

64
57
24
3
31

64
72
39
7
41

63
74
55
11
53

46
77
68
16
64

32
69
74
19
75

23
66
68
22
82

24
48
52
24
95

34
31
44
27
98

29
23
34
32
99

1
74

3
98

5
138

12
191

25
247

44
300

75
346

124
393

159
419

183
425

183
417

169
386

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.2
0.0

0.7
0.4
0.1

1.3
0.9
0.2

1.9
1.4
0.5

2.5
2.1
0.8

3.2
2.9
1.3

3.6
3.7
1.9

3.9
4.3
2.4

4.2
5.0
2.9

4.4
5.5
3.3

4.8
5.8
3.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

41.4

70.5

104.0

141.6

180.1

215.9

246.9

272.6

294.5

313.4

438
608
0
535
583
2164

435
606
0

435
609
0

435
612
12

434
614
28

434
617
40

434
619
52

434
622
54

433
625
55

433
628
54

433
631
50

433
634
46

525
598
2164

518
602
2164

535
571
2164

551
536
2164

557
516
2164

563
496
2164

578
477
2164

593
458
2164

604
446
2164

610
441
2164

616
436
2164

2.49
0.20
2.69
144
2.3
30.2
11
7
11
338
47
12

3.29
-0.17
3.12
166
2.3
31.5
20
9
17
432
60
16

3.78
-0.18
3.60
188
2.3
29.6
34
11
23
543
65
18

4.01
-0.10
3.90
203
2.3
23.3
56
14
27
645
68
20

3.84
-0.03
3.81
212
2.2
16.1
93
17
30
764
75
19

3.44
-0.10
3.33
203
2.2
11.5
90
20
32
792
69
17

3.04
-0.17
2.87
197
2.2
9.4
85
18
26
800
61
14

2.46
-0.18
2.28
180
2.2
6.3
79
18
19
775
48
12

2.23
-0.14
2.09
152
2.2
4.0
72
18
16
773
40
10

1.79
-0.10
1.70
118
2.2
3.0
64
18
16
751
34
9

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run

1.15
0.37
1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4
235
33
7

1.78
0.26
2.03
125
2.6
25.3
4
5
7
270
37
9

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data

Page 186 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run

B1HIGH MESSAGE
ALM - B1HIGH MESSAGE
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1192

1519

1875

2241

2557

2791

2980

3089

3115

3064

2934

2727

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.9
3.8

2.7
5.1

4.3
7.4

9.3
12.8

18.3
21.2

30.5
33.3

45.7
47.9

62.7
63.4

77.5
77.5

91.1
91.1

102.9
102.9

112.7
112.7

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

14
1
17
4
3
0
39

10
4
22
6
5
1
48

9
4
28
9
7
4
61

8
4
36
13
13
8
82

6
4
49
17
21
15
111

4
4
57
18
33
27
143

3
3
63
22
46
40
178

0
3
66
24
63
55
211

0
1
57
27
76
70
231

0
1
49
26
87
85
248

0
1
43
23
94
94
254

0
1
39
19
96
96
251

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

5
21
8
0
14

4
30
12
0
13

5
35
20
0
13

5
41
34
1
16

5
49
60
2
19

6
52
87
2
25

7
52
100
3
33

10
44
114
5
50

13
31
96
7
77

17
20
86
10
94

21
13
68
13
108

26
8
67
16
131

2
49

4
63

7
80

11
108

17
152

35
206

67
262

103
326

143
368

174
400

194
417

179
426

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.3
0.1

0.1
0.6
0.2

0.1
0.9
0.4

0.2
1.3
0.8

0.2
1.8
1.4

0.3
2.3
2.3

0.4
2.8
3.3

0.5
3.3
4.6

0.6
3.6
5.6

0.8
3.8
6.5

1.0
3.9
7.3

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

34.9

54.0

73.2

94.6

119.4

146.3

172.0

194.1

213.0

229.9

371
1680
0
1745
1684
5480

385
1675
0

385
1686
0

385
1696
29

384
1705
66

384
1714
93

383
1723
121

383
1732
124

383
1741
127

383
1750
124

382
1760
116

382
1769
107

1720
1700
5480

1704
1704
5480

1702
1669
5480

1732
1593
5480

1761
1527
5480

1790
1461
5480

1808
1432
5480

1825
1403
5480

1843
1379
5480

1862
1361
5480

1880
1342
5480

1.25
0.62
1.87
97
0.7
12.7
16
5
5
403
59
9

1.56
0.38
1.95
109
0.6
12.5
28
6
8
414
64
10

2.10
-0.19
1.90
125
0.5
12.0
42
7
12
429
67
12

2.58
-0.22
2.36
138
0.5
11.8
64
8
17
453
67
12

2.85
-0.25
2.60
151
0.5
11.6
98
9
22
489
68
13

2.99
-0.22
2.77
153
0.5
10.4
102
11
24
540
60
13

2.55
-0.19
2.36
153
0.5
8.5
102
11
21
638
53
12

2.26
-0.20
2.06
143
0.5
7.2
101
11
14
738
45
12

1.96
-0.24
1.71
122
0.5
5.9
96
12
14
806
39
11

1.96
-0.29
1.67
104
0.5
4.8
89
12
14
922
36
11

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run

0.72
0.73
1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
2
396
48
7

1.01
0.82
1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5
404
55
8

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data

Page 187 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run

B1HIGH MINICAM
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B1HIGH MINICAM
1990
Population

Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

5293

6100

6874

7618

8122

8484

8703

8623

8430

8126

7621

7137

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

20.7
na

27.4
na

37.5
na

51.0
na

73.0
na

100.7
na

134.0
na

172.6
na

211.9
na

251.7
na

289.7
na

330.6
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
45
121
52
35
0
253

0
54
118
59
49
0
279

0
62
117
64
69
16
328

0
69
119
67
97
47
400

0
71
113
64
143
73
465

0
70
118
58
189
107
542

0
65
132
50
235
148
630

0
47
152
55
281
167
701

0
34
170
59
322
182
768

0
28
187
63
360
194
832

0
28
197
65
370
201
861

0
27
208
67
381
209
891

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

88
131
70
24
0

106
127
79
23
5

122
125
118
26
11

134
127
186
31
20

146
116
261
35
36

153
118
310
41
54

155
133
334
48
74

119
158
371
49
81

94
179
399
46
81

80
197
419
41
75

80
210
429
43
75

81
222
438
46
74

24
336

24
365

28
430

33
532

41
635

68
743

113
857

169
946

224
1023

278
1089

265
1101

253
1114

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.1
0.1
0.1

1.1
1.4
0.8

2.3
2.7
1.9

3.5
3.9
3.3

5.0
5.1
5.8

6.4
6.3
8.6

8.0
7.5
11.7

9.2
9.1
15.4

10.3
10.8
19.2

11.2
12.6
23.3

12.0
14.7
27.5

12.8
16.7
31.8

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

159.3

255.8

366.8

485.8

607.1

729.8

852.6

972.4

1086.5

1194.0

1472
3209
0
4173
4310
13164

1467
3349
0
4215
4134
13164

1455
3591
6
4144
3968
13164

1435
3935
18
3963
3813
13164

1373
4239
47
3720
3785
13164

1284
4439
83
3568
3790
13164

1167
4537
125
3506
3829
13164

992
4270
125
3931
3847
13164

833
3979
109
4339
3904
13164

691
3665
79
4731
3999
13164

592
3479
70
4805
4219
13164

493
3293
61
4879
4438
13164

5.99
1.11

6.90
1.07

7.81
1.01

9.15
1.34

10.49
1.22

11.28
0.82

11.93
0.25

12.00
0.36

12.15
0.05

12.40
-0.66

12.81
-1.73

13.22
-2.79

7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38

7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40

8.82
352
8.1
73.4
784
29
36

10.48
398
9.5
75.6
291
32
37

11.70
443
11.0
67.0
257
33
47

12.09
489
12.9
56.1
298
37
58

12.18
521
14.6
42.8
338
42
68

12.35
524
15.3
29.8
337
47
71

12.21
529
16.1
21.4
333
45
62

11.74
536
16.8
17.6
327
43
46

11.08
558
18.2
17.7
315
46
43

10.43
579
19.7
17.9
299
45
43

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 188 of 241

B1HIGH MINICAM

Page 189 of 241

B1HIGH MINICAM
OECD90 - B1HIGH MINICAM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Population

838

908

965

1007

1024

1066

1081

1084

1090

1098

1105

1112

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

16.3
na

20.5
na

25.1
na

30.1
na

32.0
na

38.8
na

44.6
na

50.2
na

56.4
na

63.1
na

71.0
na

79.3
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
10
72
27
22
0
130

0
12
66
33
25
0
136

0
10
57
34
27
12
141

0
7
45
32
26
37
146

0
6
37
29
25
43
140

0
4
20
20
24
61
129

0
4
16
14
23
73
131

0
3
17
15
26
75
135

0
2
18
16
29
77
141

0
2
19
17
32
80
150

0
2
20
18
33
83
155

0
2
21
19
34
85
160

40
76
34
20
0

41
71
42
14
2

36
61
60
10
4

23
47
87
7
7

23
38
89
6
8

22
18
91
4
13

24
14
89
4
17

20
15
92
4
17

16
17
97
4
16

11
20
101
3
15

12
22
104
4
15

13
23
107
4
15

12
182

11
181

11
180

10
181

10
173

10
159

13
160

17
165

21
171

26
177

26
183

25
188

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.1
0.0

0.5
0.8
0.4

0.8
1.4
1.0

1.1
2.0
1.7

1.2
2.2
2.1

1.6
2.6
3.5

1.8
2.7
4.4

2.0
2.9
5.3

2.2
3.1
6.2

2.3
3.2
7.2

2.5
3.5
8.2

2.6
3.7
9.3

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

62.4

94.6

125.4

153.3

178.1

202.0

225.7

248.5

269.9

289.7

408
796
0
921
998
3123

411
822
0
931
959
3123

406
866
4
923
924
3123

394
929
13
897
890
3123

382
955
17
881
888
3123

340
1014
30
850
888
3123

303
1028
42
853
897
3123

258
983
38
941
902
3123

219
937
34
1017
916
3123

187
890
28
1079
938
3123

156
841
27
1110
989
3123

125
793
26
1140
1039
3123

2.83
0.00

3.20
0.00

3.15
0.11

2.99
0.18

2.85
0.15

2.54
0.03

2.46
-0.07

2.44
-0.05

2.44
-0.11

2.47
-0.24

2.56
-0.50

2.65
-0.75

2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
24

3.20
74
2.6
17.0
58
13
23

3.26
82
2.8
12.1
108
12
16

3.17
91
3.0
5.1
103
10
5

3.01
96
3.2
3.6
109
8
6

2.57
114
3.7
2.6
112
7
6

2.39
127
4.0
2.2
116
7
7

2.39
137
4.2
2.1
117
7
7

2.33
143
4.4
2.2
117
7
8

2.22
145
4.6
2.4
119
7
8

2.06
153
4.8
2.7
120
7
8

1.90
161
5.0
3.0
120
6
8

Million

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 190 of 241

B1HIGH MINICAM
REF - B1HIGH MINICAM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

428

425

426

433

434

431

423

408

392

374

357

340

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.1
na

1.1
na

1.4
na

2.0
na

3.0
na

4.1
na

5.3
na

7.1
na

9.2
na

11.4
na

13.4
na

15.5
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
13
18
19
6
0
56

0
10
11
15
8
0
44

0
8
8
13
11
0
40

0
7
8
13
16
1
44

0
5
8
11
20
1
45

0
4
7
9
23
1
44

0
4
7
7
24
2
43

0
2
7
6
24
1
41

0
2
6
6
23
1
39

0
1
6
5
23
1
36

0
1
6
5
22
1
35

0
1
6
5
21
1
33

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

18
20
26
3
0

17
13
20
4
1

16
10
20
5
1

16
10
28
6
2

16
8
31
6
4

16
7
30
5
4

17
7
24
5
5

9
7
22
4
4

6
7
19
3
4

5
7
17
2
3

5
7
16
2
3

5
6
15
2
3

3
70

3
57

4
56

5
67

6
69

8
70

13
69

16
62

18
57

19
53

17
50

16
46

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.2

0.4
0.3
0.5

0.5
0.4
0.7

0.7
0.5
1.0

0.8
0.6
1.3

1.0
0.6
1.6

1.1
0.7
1.8

1.2
0.8
2.0

1.2
0.8
2.2

1.3
0.9
2.3

1.3
1.0
2.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

19.9

29.4

39.7

49.8

58.8

66.6

73.5

78.7

82.2

83.9

284
395
0
1007
691
2377

293
410
0
1016
657
2377

300
453
1
997
628
2377

304
523
2
948
602
2377

297
588
5
889
598
2377

282
631
7
857
600
2377

259
652
7
851
609
2377

211
576
3
973
613
2377

169
502
1
1081
624
2377

131
428
0
1177
642
2377

115
417
0
1163
682
2377

99
406
0
1150
722
2377

1.30
0.00

0.91
0.00

0.84
0.03

0.95
0.08

0.95
0.09

0.91
0.07

0.82
0.00

0.65
0.11

0.53
0.09

0.46
-0.04

0.44
-0.19

0.43
-0.34

1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8

0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6

0.87
47
0.7
9.9
9
6
4

1.02
63
0.9
9.5
15
6
7

1.04
72
1.2
9.1
20
7
7

0.97
82
1.4
8.1
24
8
8

0.82
92
1.6
6.5
26
9
9

0.75
86
1.6
3.8
27
10
9

0.62
86
1.6
2.1
27
9
7

0.42
90
1.5
1.3
27
8
6

0.26
100
1.7
1.4
27
8
4

0.09
111
1.9
1.6
26
8
4

Population

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 191 of 241

B1HIGH MINICAM
ASIA - B1HIGH MINICAM
Population

1990
Million

2790

2000
3226

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

3608

3937

4115

4210

4219

4062

3852

3589

3245

2919

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.4
na

3.1
na

6.4
na

11.5
na

21.7
na

34.1
na

48.6
na

63.3
na

77.6
na

91.5
na

103.9
na

117.1
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
20
14
2
4
0
40

0
29
19
5
11
0
64

0
40
25
8
22
2
97

0
51
33
11
40
6
140

0
53
39
13
68
12
185

0
53
47
13
96
21
229

0
49
54
13
123
33
271

0
35
60
14
143
38
290

0
25
66
15
161
41
308

0
20
70
16
176
43
326

0
19
73
16
179
43
330

0
18
75
16
182
44
335

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

26
16
3
1
0

43
20
9
4
2

62
27
23
8
5

84
36
45
13
9

92
41
87
17
16

93
47
115
21
24

87
55
129
27
32

65
63
140
26
35

49
70
146
24
34

41
74
147
21
31

40
78
147
21
30

39
81
147
22
29

3
49

4
81

5
129

7
194

11
264

26
327

52
381

80
408

107
430

132
446

124
440

116
434

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.2
0.1

1.0
0.5
0.3

1.6
0.8
0.6

2.6
1.1
1.3

3.5
1.6
2.3

4.4
2.1
3.5

5.1
2.7
4.9

5.6
3.4
6.3

6.1
4.1
7.8

6.5
4.9
9.2

6.9
5.6
10.7

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

41.8

74.9

117.9

167.8

220.7

272.8

322.1

368.9

413.9

457.6

389
508
0
1168
664
2729

399
524
0
1144
633
2700

406
554
1
1107
605
2674

408
599
4
1058
581
2650

395
636
16
1020
578
2645

373
663
30
999
580
2645

343
680
44
995
587
2650

296
666
44
1056
591
2653

254
646
36
1126
602
2664

215
620
22
1207
620
2683

186
593
16
1268
659
2721

158
565
10
1329
697
2759

1.15
0.37

1.78
0.26

2.58
0.19

3.61
0.24

4.51
0.23

5.06
0.18

5.27
0.08

4.99
0.07

4.79
0.01

4.68
-0.12

4.71
-0.27

4.75
-0.43

1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4

2.03
125
2.6
25.3
4
5
7

2.77
133
2.9
34.7
11
7
11

3.86
144
3.3
43.5
20
9
17

4.74
155
3.8
37.6
34
11
23

5.24
160
4.2
29.4
56
14
27

5.36
161
4.7
19.1
93
17
30

5.06
157
4.9
11.7
90
20
32

4.79
155
5.1
7.1
85
18
26

4.56
154
5.4
5.3
79
18
19

4.44
151
5.8
5.3
72
18
16

4.31
148
6.3
5.3
64
18
16

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 192 of 241

B1HIGH MINICAM
ALM - B1HIGH MINICAM
Population

1990
Million

1236

2000
1541

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1876

2241

2531

2778

2980

3068

3096

3064

2913

2766

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.9
na

2.8
na

4.6
na

7.4
na

14.3
na

23.7
na

35.6
na

52.0
na

68.6
na

85.6
na

101.5
na

118.7
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
2
17
5
3
0
27

0
3
21
7
6
0
36

0
4
26
9
10
1
50

0
6
33
12
15
4
70

0
7
37
15
30
11
101

0
8
44
17
47
24
139

0
9
55
16
65
40
185

0
7
68
19
88
52
235

0
6
80
22
109
63
280

0
5
91
25
129
70
321

0
5
99
26
137
75
341

0
5
106
27
145
79
362

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

4
20
7
0
0

6
22
9
2
1

8
27
16
3
2

11
34
27
5
3

16
38
52
7
7

22
46
74
10
13

28
57
93
13
20

26
72
117
15
25

24
85
137
15
27

22
96
153
15
26

23
104
161
16
27

25
112
169
17
27

5
35

6
46

8
65

12
91

15
136

23
188

36
246

57
311

78
366

101
413

98
429

96
446

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.2
0.1

0.1
0.5
0.2

0.2
0.8
0.4

0.4
1.2
0.9

0.6
1.6
1.5

0.8
2.1
2.3

1.1
2.8
3.5

1.3
3.6
4.7

1.5
4.4
6.1

1.8
5.5
7.7

2.0
6.5
9.3

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

35.1

56.9

83.7

114.8

149.5

188.3

231.4

276.3

320.5

362.8

391
1510
0
3641
1957
7499

363
1594
0
3592
1884
7432

342
1719
0
3492
1812
7365

329
1884
0
3343
1740
7296

311
2033
5
3203
1724
7276

289
2131
16
3111
1722
7269

263
2177
33
3065
1736
7273

226
2045
39
3227
1740
7277

191
1895
38
3415
1762
7300

157
1727
30
3629
1799
7343

134
1628
27
3753
1890
7431

111
1528
25
3876
1980
7520

0.72
0.73

1.01
0.82

1.24
0.68

1.59
0.84

2.18
0.74

2.78
0.54

3.38
0.23

3.92
0.23

4.40
0.06

4.79
-0.27

5.09
-0.77

5.40
-1.27

1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
2

1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5

1.93
90
1.7
13.7
16
5
5

2.43
101
2.2
14.5
28
6
8

2.92
120
2.9
13.7
42
7
12

3.31
134
3.6
12.9
64
8
17

3.62
142
4.3
12.1
98
9
22

4.15
143
4.6
9.1
102
11
24

4.46
145
5.0
7.0
102
11
21

4.53
147
5.3
5.6
101
11
14

4.32
154
5.9
5.3
96
12
14

4.13
160
6.5
5.0
89
12
14

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 193 of 241

B2 MESSAGE
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B2 MESSAGE
1990
Population

Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

5262

6091

6891

7672

8372

8930

9367

9704

9960

10158

10306

10414

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

20.9
25.7

28.3
34.8

38.6
46.9

50.7
60.2

66.0
75.5

85.5
93.2

109.5
113.9

134.8
136.8

161.5
160.7

186.3
183.8

210.3
207.4

234.9
231.8

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

38
42
111
41
35
8
275

27
47
134
46
47
11
311

27
40
167
50
62
17
362

24
36
200
59
85
25
429

18
29
236
70
113
41
507

14
30
255
86
150
51
586

11
19
268
105
188
63
654

10
17
273
119
227
78
723

9
16
267
130
272
90
783

8
16
270
130
321
104
848

7
13
289
118
366
116
909

7
7
294
111
409
123
951

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

91
128
71
7
46

91
168
84
8
43

98
195
107
11
46

98
214
150
16
53

96
240
194
23
61

93
238
251
32
79

86
227
297
48
105

91
201
356
61
136

119
146
390
83
184

170
101
402
99
236

231
72
385
120
280

300
52
336
142
315

8
352

14
408

22
479

34
566

54
667

80
773

107
869

131
976

153
1074

176
1184

197
1285

212
1357

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.9
1.4
0.7

1.8
3.1
1.6

2.8
5.1
2.7

3.8
7.2
4.2

4.7
9.6
6.1

5.7
12.0
8.6

6.5
14.3
11.6

7.4
16.3
15.1

8.6
17.7
19.0

10.3
18.7
23.1

12.6
19.5
26.9

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

159.1

248.3

343.0

446.0

554.5

667.0

782.5

901.4

1026.1

1156.7

1459
3389
0
4296
3805
12949

1481
3409
0
4252
3806
12949

1510
3436
0
4225
3778
12949

1540
3454
14
4251
3690
12949

1570
3473
92
4292
3522
12949

1598
3508
190
4323
3330
12949

1626
3543
288
4353
3139
12949

1656
3577
313
4380
3023
12949

1687
3611
338
4407
2907
12949

1718
3641
342
4441
2807
12949

1751
3668
325
4482
2723
12949

1784
3696
307
4522
2639
12949

7.99
0.80
8.78
349
6.2
65.9
786
42
48
935
159
37

9.02
0.03
9.05
384
6.1
61.3
299
55
55
1022
180
43

10.15
-0.25
9.90
426
6.1
60.3
272
70
60
1111
199
49

10.93
-0.24
10.69
466
6.2
59.0
315
88
76
1220
214
53

11.23
-0.23
11.01
504
6.3
55.7
346
107
79
1319
217
54

11.74
-0.24
11.49
522
6.4
53.8
413
120
80
1423
214
56

11.87
-0.25
11.62
544
6.6
50.9
483
128
74
1570
202
56

12.46
-0.31
12.15
566
6.7
50.0
548
130
63
1742
192
59

13.20
-0.41
12.79
579
6.8
49.0
603
127
65
1886
178
61

13.82
-0.50
13.32
597
6.9
47.9
649
121
69
2002
170
61

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM B2 run

5.99
1.11
7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38
879
139
31

6.90
1.07
7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40
877
141
32

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B2 land-use data
Page 194 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B2 run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B2 run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B2 run

B2 MESSAGE

Page 195 of 241

B2 MESSAGE
OECD90 - B2 MESSAGE

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

859

916

953

982

994

988

976

965

951

941

934

928

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

16.4
14.1

21.1
18.3

26.5
23.0

30.3
26.3

33.1
28.8

35.8
31.3

38.3
33.5

40.9
35.9

44.4
39.2

47.9
42.4

52.0
46.1

56.6
50.4

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
13
66
22
22
1
124

0
9
71
24
29
1
133

0
4
79
26
36
2
146

0
3
86
25
44
4
162

0
1
92
27
50
7
177

0
0
88
31
56
8
183

0
0
76
35
61
10
182

0
0
68
38
65
12
183

0
0
64
34
71
14
183

0
0
60
29
76
16
182

0
0
60
24
83
17
184

0
0
58
17
89
18
182

38
72
33
6
6

34
86
41
7
7

36
91
50
9
6

39
90
61
11
7

33
90
71
13
8

24
81
86
15
9

20
65
99
17
12

19
54
114
16
15

23
42
113
21
22

26
30
123
21
28

29
23
127
25
31

34
17
121
29
33

4
159

5
180

8
200

11
219

15
230

20
234

25
236

29
248

33
253

36
265

39
273

41
274

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.8
0.3

0.7
1.7
0.8

1.1
2.6
1.3

1.5
3.5
1.9

1.8
4.4
2.6

2.0
5.2
3.4

2.2
5.8
4.3

2.4
6.4
5.4

2.6
6.8
6.6

2.9
7.1
7.8

3.3
7.3
9.2

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

63.5

99.1

135.5

170.8

204.1

236.1

267.0

297.0

326.8

356.3

381
760
0
1050
838
3029

384
764
0
1059
822
3029

391
770
0
1069
799
3029

398
773
2
1082
774
3029

406
776
17
1095
734
3029

411
787
36
1104
691
3029

417
798
54
1113
647
3029

423
812
59
1125
611
3029

429
826
64
1136
575
3029

435
838
64
1151
540
3029

442
849
61
1171
506
3029

449
860
58
1190
471
3029

3.50
-0.02
3.48
72
2.5
11.3
105
14
25
163
37
13

3.71
-0.06
3.64
71
2.4
6.7
99
13
23
173
39
15

3.70
-0.08
3.62
68
2.5
5.7
102
12
17
180
42
16

3.51
-0.06
3.45
67
2.5
4.9
101
11
13
187
45
16

3.26
-0.05
3.22
69
2.5
4.1
102
10
13
185
43
15

3.25
-0.06
3.19
69
2.5
3.7
101
8
11
185
41
15

3.08
-0.08
2.99
70
2.5
3.4
100
7
10
195
38
14

3.10
-0.11
2.99
72
2.6
3.3
98
7
11
213
36
13

3.14
-0.15
2.98
75
2.6
3.3
98
7
10
207
33
12

3.10
-0.19
2.91
78
2.6
3.5
97
7
10
197
30
11

Population

Million

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM B2 run

2.83
0.00
2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
24
179
42
13

3.20
0.00
3.20
74
2.6
17.0
57
13
23
161
36
12

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B2 land-use data

Page 196 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B2 run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B2 run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B2 run

B2 MESSAGE
REF - B2 MESSAGE

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

413

415

417

418

416

411

406

396

389

384

381

379

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.1
2.6

1.0
2.4

1.2
2.7

1.8
3.3

2.8
4.3

4.5
5.6

6.6
7.2

8.6
9.5

10.5
11.6

11.9
13.3

13.2
14.8

14.5
16.2

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
9
15
14
6
7
50

0
5
14
14
6
6
45

0
3
17
12
6
6
44

0
2
17
15
7
7
49

0
1
17
18
9
10
55

0
1
19
19
13
11
63

0
0
19
19
18
12
68

0
0
18
18
21
14
71

0
0
18
16
24
15
73

0
0
19
15
27
16
76

0
0
20
12
30
16
78

0
0
22
10
32
15
79

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

19
20
27
1
2

15
18
26
1
1

11
20
24
1
1

7
19
31
1
1

9
18
38
1
2

10
18
49
1
2

12
20
51
2
4

8
16
59
3
6

11
7
66
4
10

15
5
63
6
13

21
4
52
7
16

29
0
43
9
22

1
70

1
62

2
57

3
62

4
73

6
86

8
97

10
102

12
111

16
117

19
119

21
125

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.3

0.3
0.4
0.5

0.4
0.6
0.8

0.5
0.8
1.1

0.6
1.0
1.5

0.7
1.1
2.0

0.8
1.3
2.5

0.9
1.5
3.2

1.1
1.6
3.9

1.3
1.6
4.6

1.5
1.6
5.2

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

19.5

26.7

33.8

42.9

54.0

65.7

77.4

89.4

101.2

112.8

268
341
0
966
701
2276

269
362
0
951
693
2276

274
366
0
939
697
2276

280
368
1
944
683
2276

285
370
6
947
668
2276

291
373
12
944
656
2276

296
377
18
941
644
2276

302
380
20
940
634
2276

308
383
21
939
624
2276

314
386
22
941
613
2276

320
389
20
945
601
2276

327
392
19
949
589
2276

0.80
-0.01
0.79
36
0.6
7.1
9
8
5
43
14
3

0.81
-0.18
0.63
40
0.6
3.5
15
10
7
48
16
3

0.94
-0.14
0.80
45
0.6
1.6
21
14
9
59
21
4

1.11
-0.09
1.02
50
0.6
1.3
25
19
12
69
28
5

1.24
-0.04
1.20
53
0.6
2.9
25
25
15
74
32
5

1.18
-0.04
1.15
50
0.7
2.8
26
28
16
73
31
5

1.22
-0.03
1.19
47
0.7
2.9
26
30
15
68
30
5

1.24
-0.03
1.21
47
0.7
3.1
26
30
14
72
30
5

1.21
-0.04
1.17
46
0.7
3.4
27
28
14
70
27
4

1.18
-0.04
1.14
47
0.7
3.6
27
27
14
79
26
4

Population

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM B2 run

1.30
0.00
1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
7
69
16
5

0.91
0.00
0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6
41
13
3

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B2 land-use data

Page 197 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B2 run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B2 run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B2 run

B2 MESSAGE
ASIA - B2 MESSAGE
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2798

3248

3649

4008

4312

4538

4696

4790

4856

4902

4938

4968

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.5
5.3

3.5
9.3

7.2
15.1

13.2
22.4

21.3
30.7

30.7
39.3

41.8
49.3

52.7
59.0

64.1
68.7

75.0
78.5

85.8
89.2

97.1
100.4

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

24
19
13
2
4
1
62

16
30
26
3
8
3
86

16
29
41
5
14
7
111

13
28
60
9
24
10
144

11
24
81
13
37
16
181

9
25
96
18
53
20
220

7
17
112
22
70
25
252

6
14
117
30
87
31
284

5
12
109
38
108
35
308

5
12
107
37
131
43
335

5
9
114
34
151
51
363

4
2
122
33
169
55
385

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

30
15
3
0
24

38
32
6
1
22

47
45
16
2
25

47
63
31
4
28

48
82
43
7
32

53
88
55
13
41

48
93
61
21
54

56
82
72
29
68

71
61
79
38
88

105
41
66
47
109

144
27
51
56
123

180
21
39
65
129

1
74

4
103

7
141

12
185

21
233

31
281

43
319

52
359

61
397

71
439

81
482

88
521

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.2
0.0

0.7
0.5
0.1

1.2
1.0
0.3

1.7
1.6
0.6

2.1
2.4
1.0

2.7
3.3
1.5

3.1
4.2
2.1

3.7
5.0
2.7

4.3
5.6
3.4

5.3
6.1
4.0

6.7
6.3
4.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

41.1

68.5

100.2

137.4

177.8

219.4

261.8

305.7

353.4

406.7

438
608
0
535
583
2164

439
607
0
525
593
2164

448
611
0
518
587
2164

457
615
3
533
557
2164

466
618
21
548
512
2164

475
623
43
553
471
2164

484
627
65
558
430
2164

494
632
70
563
406
2164

504
636
76
567
382
2164

514
640
77
571
362
2164

524
644
73
575
348
2164

535
647
69
580
333
2164

2.42
0.20
2.62
146
2.4
30.1
21
14
12
314
44
12

3.02
-0.15
2.87
171
2.4
32.9
40
22
18
375
53
15

3.62
-0.16
3.46
201
2.5
33.3
66
30
25
428
59
18

4.07
-0.09
3.98
219
2.5
32.0
95
38
32
472
60
20

4.12
-0.03
4.10
234
2.6
26.4
130
46
36
518
59
19

4.26
-0.03
4.22
241
2.6
24.3
164
51
36
549
56
20

4.30
-0.04
4.26
251
2.7
22.1
199
54
33
579
52
20

4.57
-0.05
4.53
260
2.8
21.5
233
54
27
598
45
22

5.07
-0.05
5.01
265
2.8
21.3
267
53
29
617
41
24

5.69
-0.06
5.63
272
2.9
20.6
302
51
30
651
39
26

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM B2 run

1.15
0.37
1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4
235
33
7

1.78
0.26
2.03
125
2.6
25.3
5
5
7
270
37
9

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B2 land-use data

Page 198 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B2 run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B2 run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B2 run

B2 MESSAGE
ALM - B2 MESSAGE

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1192

1511

1872

2263

2649

2992

3289

3554

3764

3931

4053

4139

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.9
3.8

2.7
4.9

3.7
6.2

5.5
8.2

8.8
11.7

14.6
17.0

22.8
23.9

32.6
32.4

42.6
41.2

51.4
49.6

59.3
57.2

66.8
64.9

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

14
1
17
4
3
0
39

10
4
23
5
5
1
47

11
3
30
8
7
3
61

11
3
37
10
11
4
75

7
3
46
14
16
8
95

5
3
53
19
28
12
120

4
2
61
28
40
17
152

4
3
71
34
54
21
186

3
4
76
42
70
25
219

3
4
83
48
86
30
255

3
4
95
48
102
32
284

3
5
93
52
119
35
306

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

5
21
8
0
14

5
32
11
0
13

4
40
18
0
14

5
42
27
0
17

6
50
41
1
20

6
51
62
3
28

6
50
87
8
36

7
50
111
13
46

14
36
132
20
64

24
25
150
26
86

37
18
155
32
111

58
14
133
39
132

2
49

3
63

6
81

8
100

13
131

23
172

32
217

40
267

47
314

53
364

58
411

62
437

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.3
0.1

0.1
0.6
0.2

0.1
1.0
0.4

0.2
1.4
0.6

0.2
1.9
1.1

0.3
2.4
1.7

0.4
2.9
2.7

0.5
3.4
3.9

0.6
3.8
5.2

0.8
4.0
6.6

1.1
4.2
8.1

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

35.0

54.0

73.6

94.8

118.6

145.7

176.3

209.3

244.6

280.9

371
1680
0
1745
1684
5480

389
1676
0
1717
1698
5480

397
1689
0
1699
1695
5480

405
1699
7
1692
1676
5480

413
1709
48
1701
1608
5480

421
1725
100
1721
1513
5480

429
1741
151
1740
1419
5480

438
1754
164
1752
1372
5480

446
1766
177
1765
1326
5480

455
1777
179
1777
1292
5480

464
1787
170
1790
1269
5480

474
1797
161
1803
1246
5480

1.26
0.63
1.90
94
0.7
14.4
12
7
5
416
65
9

1.48
0.42
1.90
102
0.6
15.2
20
10
7
427
72
10

1.88
0.12
2.01
112
0.5
16.7
32
14
9
445
78
11

2.24
0.01
2.25
129
0.6
17.8
54
20
20
492
81
13

2.60
-0.11
2.49
149
0.6
19.4
84
27
16
542
83
15

3.04
-0.11
2.94
162
0.6
20.0
120
33
17
616
86
16

3.27
-0.10
3.17
175
0.7
19.6
157
37
15
728
82
17

3.55
-0.12
3.43
187
0.7
19.1
190
39
11
860
80
19

3.79
-0.16
3.63
193
0.7
18.0
211
39
13
992
77
20

3.84
-0.20
3.64
200
0.8
17.2
223
37
14
1075
75
20

Population

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Land-use taken from AIM B2 run

0.72
0.73
1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
3
396
48
7

1.01
0.82
1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5
404
55
8

Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B2 land-use data

Page 199 of 241

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B2 run)
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B2 run
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B2 run

B2 AIM
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B2 AIM
1990
Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

5262

6091

6851

7612

8372

8855

9367

9638

9917

10129

10271

10414

20.9

28.2

36.4

48.4

66.9

86.3

111.2

133.7

160.7

186.9

210.5

237.1

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

50
36
111
51
38

38
43
118
54
50

34
54
132
74
65

30
66
146
97
81

26
77
168
123
105

18
82
191
148
135

13
88
217
179
175

0
84
225
193
215

0
80
234
209
266

0
76
241
221
311

0
72
246
228
344

0
69
251
236
381

285

304

359

420

499

578

671

730

795

850

892

936

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

93
143
73
6
50

105
160
93
9
48

141
175
123
13
38

180
185
153
19
38

214
188
187
29
53

242
178
226
35
79

278
173
277
46
120

272
154
297
53
144

268
139
320
63
173

262
126
337
72
198

254
113
344
79
215

247
102
352
88
233

10
376

11
427

13
502

16
590

22
693

32
793

48
941

79
1000

132
1095

186
1181

222
1227

264
1285

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.1
0.1
0.1

1.1
1.6
0.9

2.3
3.3
2.0

3.9
5.1
3.4

5.9
7.0
5.1

8.0
8.6
7.0

10.8
10.6
9.7

13.1
12.0
12.2

15.9
13.5
15.4

18.7
14.9
18.8

21.2
16.1
22.0

24.0
17.3
25.9

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

162.3

261.8

373.7

500.0

642.7

794.1

944.4

1093.2

1239.1

1381.3

1459
3389
0
4296
3805
12949

1481
3409
0
4252
3806
12949

1510
3436
0
4225
3778
12949

1540
3454
14
4251
3690
12949

1570
3473
92
4292
3522
12949

1598
3508
163
4322
3325
12949

1626
3543
288
4353
3139
12949

1656
3577
312
4380
3019
12949

1686
3610
337
4407
2904
12949

1718
3641
341
4441
2805
12949

1751
3668
324
4481
2721
12949

1784
3696
307
4522
2639
12949

8.51
0.92
9.43
358
7.1
78.3
786
42
48
953
161
35

10.21
0.26
10.47
391
7.1
77.6
299
55
55
941
179
38

11.83
0.07
11.90
429
7.3
69.8
272
70
60
1002
186
39

13.24
0.12
13.36
453
7.4
51.9
315
88
76
1086
191
40

14.96
0.24
15.20
482
7.5
44.2
346
107
79
1180
197
42

14.82
0.24
15.07
485
7.6
38.4
413
120
80
1224
181
40

14.75
0.26
15.01
489
7.7
34.2
483
128
74
1272
167
38

14.56
0.19
14.76
485
7.8
32.8
548
130
63
1332
153
37

14.24
0.17
14.41
475
7.9
33.3
603
127
65
1407
141
36

13.93
0.10
14.04
465
8.0
33.8
649
121
69
1487
130
34

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 200 of 241

5.99
1.11
7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38
879
139
31

6.90
1.07
7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40
877
141
32

B2 AIM

Page 201 of 241

B2 AIM
OECD90 - B2 AIM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

859

916

942

968

994

985

976

964

952

943

935

928

16.4

21.1

24.5

28.3

32.8

35.3

37.9

41.0

44.3

48.0

52.1

56.7

6
10
64
25
22

0
12
71
30
27

0
12
70
36
31

0
12
71
41
34

0
11
72
45
38

0
10
70
46
40

0
9
67
47
43

0
8
62
45
48

0
7
58
44
53

0
6
55
43
59

0
5
54
43
63

0
4
52
43
68

127

141

148

157

166

166

166

164

163

163

165

168

41
76
34
5
6

39
88
48
7
1

44
84
55
8
0

46
82
59
11
1

46
73
62
13
6

48
58
64
12
11

49
47
66
11
23

43
38
63
11
27

38
31
60
12
33

34
27
58
13
37

32
25
58
14
40

30
24
57
15
44

6
167

6
189

7
198

8
206

10
210

12
204

14
208

20
202

29
202

37
206

42
212

49
219

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.1
0.0

0.4
0.9
0.4

0.9
1.8
1.0

1.3
2.6
1.5

1.8
3.4
2.1

2.2
3.9
2.7

2.7
4.6
3.4

3.1
4.9
4.0

3.5
5.3
4.6

3.9
5.6
5.2

4.3
5.9
5.8

4.6
6.1
6.4

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

62.6

95.9

129.3

162.0

194.0

223.7

249.8

273.1

294.4

314.2

381
760
0
1050
838
3029

384
764
0
1059
822
3029

391
770
0
1069
799
3029

398
773
2
1082
774
3029

406
776
17
1095
734
3029

411
787
31
1104
689
3029

417
798
54
1113
647
3029

423
811
59
1124
609
3029

429
826
63
1136
574
3029

435
838
64
1151
538
3029

442
849
61
1171
504
3029

449
860
58
1190
471
3029

3.32
-0.02
3.30
71
2.6
10.3
105
14
25
174
34
11

3.41
-0.05
3.36
67
2.6
7.4
99
13
23
186
32
10

3.37
-0.06
3.31
64
2.6
7.2
102
12
17
203
29
9

3.27
-0.04
3.24
59
2.6
7.3
101
11
13
210
25
8

3.18
-0.02
3.16
54
2.6
7.4
102
10
13
216
21
6

2.81
-0.03
2.78
52
2.5
7.0
101
8
11
215
15
6

2.49
-0.05
2.45
51
2.5
6.6
100
7
10
214
10
5

2.28
-0.07
2.21
49
2.5
6.4
98
7
11
216
7
5

2.16
-0.11
2.05
48
2.5
6.2
98
7
10
221
6
5

2.04
-0.14
1.90
47
2.5
6.0
97
7
10
227
6
5

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 202 of 241

2.83
0.00
2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
24
179
42
13

3.20
0.00
3.20
74
2.6
17.0
57
13
23
161
36
12

B2 AIM
REF - B2 AIM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

413

415

416

416

416

411

406

398

390

385

382

379

1.1

1.0

1.4

1.9

2.7

4.2

6.5

8.0

10.0

11.7

12.9

14.3

2
9
19
19
8

3
7
10
13
9

0
7
9
18
11

0
7
8
22
12

0
6
8
25
14

0
6
9
30
17

0
5
10
36
20

0
4
10
36
24

0
4
10
37
28

0
3
10
37
31

0
3
10
35
32

0
2
9
34
33

58

42

45

49

53

61

71

75

80

81

80

79

18
22
26
1
2

15
15
22
1
4

17
13
28
2
0

19
11
31
3
0

19
10
33
4
2

19
9
38
5
4

20
8
44
6
8

19
7
44
6
9

19
6
44
7
11

18
5
43
7
12

16
4
41
7
14

15
3
39
8
15

1
71

1
58

1
61

2
65

2
69

3
78

6
91

9
95

14
102

19
105

21
103

23
102

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.3

0.3
0.3
0.5

0.5
0.4
0.8

0.7
0.5
1.1

0.9
0.6
1.5

1.1
0.7
1.9

1.3
0.8
2.3

1.5
0.9
2.7

1.7
0.9
3.2

1.8
1.0
3.6

2.0
1.0
4.0

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

20.6

30.1

39.2

49.0

59.8

71.0

81.9

92.1

101.3

109.8

268
341
0
966
701
2276

269
362
0
951
693
2276

274
366
0
939
697
2276

280
368
1
944
683
2276

285
370
6
947
668
2276

291
373
10
944
656
2276

296
377
18
941
644
2276

302
380
20
940
634
2276

308
383
21
939
624
2276

314
386
22
941
613
2276

320
389
20
945
601
2276

327
392
19
949
589
2276

1.01
0.00
1.01
47
0.6
11.7
9
8
5
40
13
3

1.05
-0.16
0.89
48
0.6
9.7
15
10
7
40
13
3

1.06
-0.12
0.94
47
0.6
6.9
21
14
9
42
12
3

1.11
-0.09
1.02
48
0.6
3.4
25
19
12
45
12
3

1.17
-0.03
1.14
48
0.6
1.6
25
25
15
48
12
2

1.13
-0.02
1.10
44
0.6
1.8
26
28
16
50
11
2

1.09
-0.02
1.08
40
0.6
2.1
26
30
15
51
10
2

1.02
-0.07
0.95
36
0.7
2.3
26
30
14
53
9
2

0.91
-0.02
0.89
32
0.7
2.5
27
28
14
55
9
1

0.82
-0.02
0.80
28
0.7
2.6
27
27
14
57
8
1

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 203 of 241

1.30
0.00
1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
7
69
16
5

0.91
0.00
0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6
41
13
3

B2 AIM
ASIA - B2 AIM
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2798

3248

3603

3958

4312

4500

4696

4768

4842

4897

4932

4968

1.5

3.5

6.5

12.1

22.7

31.8

44.5

54.4

66.4

78.3

89.2

101.6

28
15
11
2
5

18
23
17
4
8

17
33
27
8
15

14
44
37
17
25

8
54
51
31
40

0
59
62
41
54

0
65
74
55
75

0
63
76
62
94

0
60
79
71
118

0
58
81
79
140

0
56
82
85
157

0
54
83
91
176

61

69

100

137

184

222

268

298

330

358

381

404

30
17
4
0
28

44
26
8
1
24

69
41
17
2
19

98
53
33
4
15

125
63
56
9
11

142
61
76
14
17

161
59
103
20
27

157
48
115
24
33

154
39
128
29
39

151
33
138
33
45

147
29
145
37
48

144
25
153
41
53

1
80

2
104

2
150

3
206

6
269

10
319

18
388

31
408

56
444

82
481

99
506

120
536

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.2
0.1

1.0
0.6
0.2

1.8
1.0
0.4

2.9
1.6
0.9

4.1
2.1
1.5

5.8
2.8
2.5

7.1
3.2
3.4

8.7
3.7
4.6

10.3
4.1
6.0

11.8
4.4
7.4

13.4
4.7
9.0

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

43.5

79.1

125.8

183.7

251.9

325.8

399.9

474.0

547.7

620.9

438
608
0
535
583
2164

439
607
0
525
593
2164

448
611
0
518
587
2164

457
615
3
533
557
2164

466
618
21
548
512
2164

475
623
37
553
469
2164

484
627
65
558
430
2164

494
631
70
563
405
2164

503
636
76
567
381
2164

514
640
77
571
362
2164

524
644
73
575
347
2164

535
647
69
580
333
2164

2.82
0.29
3.11
148
2.7
40.1
21
14
12
332
50
12

4.00
0.01
4.00
176
2.7
44.9
40
22
18
356
66
15

5.26
0.06
5.33
209
2.9
36.2
66
30
25
412
72
18

6.13
0.13
6.26
224
3.0
19.0
95
38
32
455
77
18

7.13
0.25
7.38
240
3.1
9.8
130
46
36
503
83
19

7.15
0.25
7.40
241
3.1
10.0
164
51
36
521
78
17

7.17
0.24
7.42
243
3.2
10.3
199
54
33
538
74
16

7.15
0.25
7.40
239
3.3
10.5
233
54
27
563
69
15

7.09
0.25
7.35
230
3.3
10.6
267
53
29
594
62
14

7.03
0.26
7.29
221
3.4
10.8
302
51
30
627
56
14

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 204 of 241

1.15
0.37
1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4
235
33
7

1.78
0.26
2.03
125
2.6
25.3
5
5
7
270
37
9

B2 AIM
ALM - B2 AIM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1192

1511

1891

2270

2649

2952

3289

3502

3729

3904

4020

4139

1.9

2.7

4.1

6.0

8.6

13.9

22.3

29.7

39.6

48.9

56.2

64.4

14
1
17
4
4

17
2
20
7
6

18
3
25
12
8

16
4
29
17
10

18
6
36
22
14

15
7
49
30
23

13
9
66
42
36

0
9
75
49
49

0
9
86
56
65

0
9
95
62
81

0
9
100
65
91

0
8
106
68
103

40

52

66

77

96

126

166

191

221

246

265

285

5
27
9
0
14

7
32
15
0
18

11
37
23
0
19

17
39
31
1
22

24
43
37
2
35

34
50
49
4
47

48
59
64
9
63

52
61
76
12
76

57
63
89
15
91

59
61
97
19
104

58
55
100
21
112

58
49
103
24
122

2
57

2
75

3
94

3
113

5
145

7
191

11
254

19
295

33
348

49
388

59
406

72
428

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.3
0.1

0.2
0.7
0.3

0.3
1.1
0.6

0.5
1.5
0.9

0.8
1.9
1.3

1.2
2.5
1.9

1.6
3.0
2.6

2.2
3.7
3.4

2.8
4.3
4.3

3.3
4.8
5.3

1.7
6.7
12.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

35.6

56.7

79.4

105.2

137.0

173.5

212.8

254.1

295.7

336.4

371
1680
0
1745
1684
5480

389
1676
0
1717
1698
5480

397
1689
0
1699
1695
5480

405
1699
7
1692
1676
5480

413
1709
48
1701
1608
5480

421
1725
85
1721
1510
5480

429
1741
151
1740
1419
5480

437
1754
163
1752
1371
5480

446
1766
176
1765
1325
5480

455
1777
179
1777
1291
5480

464
1787
170
1790
1268
5480

474
1797
161
1803
1246
5480

1.36
0.65
2.01
93
1.3
13.2
12
7
5
408
64
9

1.76
0.46
2.22
100
1.2
12.6
20
10
7
359
69
9

2.14
0.18
2.32
108
1.2
16.4
32
14
9
345
72
10

2.73
0.12
2.84
123
1.2
19.2
54
20
20
376
77
12

3.48
0.03
3.52
139
1.3
22.4
84
27
16
413
81
14

3.73
0.05
3.78
147
1.3
16.6
120
33
17
439
77
15

3.99
0.08
4.07
156
1.4
12.3
157
37
15
468
73
16

4.11
0.08
4.20
162
1.4
10.7
190
39
11
501
68
16

4.07
0.04
4.12
165
1.5
11.0
211
39
13
536
64
15

4.04
0.00
4.04
168
1.5
11.3
223
37
14
576
60
15

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 205 of 241

0.72
0.73
1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
3
396
48
7

1.01
0.82
1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5
404
55
8

B2 ASF
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B2 ASF
1990
Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

5256

6091

6870

7650

8277

9072

9367

9632

9771

10132

10341

10414

20.3

26.1

33.8

43.3

54.8

76.3

85.7

104.8

116.3

158.9

214.6

237.9

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

53
118
49
41

55
156
55
50

66
194
70
67

71
254
98
89

64
271
121
116

57
288
144
144

49
305
167
171

49
317
177
185

48
329
187
199

48
353
190
216

48
391
186
234

48
428
183
253

261

316

397

512

572

632

692

727

763

807

859

912

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

94
136
73
8
0

99
181
78
11
0

124
232
99
10
4

146
305
140
9
8

197
273
180
12
28

247
240
220
15
49

297
207
260
17
69

363
136
268
19
88

430
65
276
21
108

489
24
273
22
125

541
13
258
24
141

594
2
243
25
156

8
319

11
380

16
486

24
633

31
721

39
809

46
897

52
927

58
957

70
1002

86
1062

103
1122

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

1.0
1.7
0.8

2.2
3.8
1.7

3.5
6.5
2.9

5.3
9.4
4.5

7.5
11.9
6.5

10.2
14.1
8.9

13.5
15.8
11.6

17.5
16.7
14.3

22.1
17.1
17.1

27.3
17.2
19.7

33.0
17.3
22.2

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

165.1

278.6

415.9

567.3

726.2

890.1

1056.7

1227.3

1405.3

1592.1

-1.8

-1.8

-1.8

-1.9

-1.9

-1.6

-2.0

-1.6

-2.0

-1.9

-1.5

-1.8

5.99
1.11
7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38
879
139
31

6.90
1.07
7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40
877
141
32

8.85
1.12
9.97
367
8.0
77.2
786
42
48
984
157
41

11.48
1.25
12.73
414
9.5
101.3
299
55
55
1077
180
52

13.60
1.15
14.75
459
10.5
108.1
272
70
60
1233
199
61

14.51
1.00
15.51
493
11.0
97.4
315
88
76
1275
205
64

15.42
0.85
16.27
527
11.5
86.8
346
107
79
1318
211
66

15.93
0.60
16.52
545
11.7
68.1
413
120
80
1361
221
66

16.43
0.35
16.78
563
11.8
49.4
483
128
74
1405
230
66

17.13
0.22
17.35
579
11.9
38.7
548
130
63
1485
248
68

18.03
0.21
18.24
593
12.0
36.0
603
127
65
1600
276
72

18.93
0.20
19.13
607
12.0
33.3
649
121
69
1716
304
77

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 206 of 241

B2 ASF

Page 207 of 241

B2 ASF
OECD90 - B2 ASF

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

848

916

947

978

990

979

976

963

957

941

930

928

15.4

19.1

23.1

27.0

30.9

37.0

39.4

43.8

46.2

54.3

64.2

68.0

12
68
27
23

12
86
30
27

12
92
32
33

12
97
35
39

13
91
38
41

13
85
40
43

13
78
43
45

13
75
45
47

12
72
47
49

12
73
48
53

12
77
46
58

12
82
45
62

130

156

168

183

182

181

180

180

181

185

194

202

33
77
35
6
0

30
97
38
9
0

34
108
41
8
1

39
117
48
6
2

54
94
55
6
8

68
71
61
6
13

83
47
68
6
18

92
29
69
6
19

102
11
69
7
21

109
2
68
7
23

116
1
64
8
25

122
0
60
8
28

5
156

6
180

8
200

10
223

11
227

12
230

13
234

14
229

15
225

17
226

21
235

25
244

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.3
1.0
0.4

0.7
2.0
0.8

1.0
3.1
1.2

1.5
4.2
1.8

2.1
5.0
2.3

2.9
5.5
3.0

3.8
5.9
3.7

4.7
6.1
4.4

5.8
6.1
5.0

6.9
6.1
5.7

8.1
6.1
6.3

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

64.0

101.8

143.3

186.1

228.5

270.1

310.4

349.9

389.7

430.3

2.83
0.00
2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
24
179
42
13

3.20
0.00
3.20
74
2.6
17.0
57
13
23
161
36
12

3.57
0.00
3.57
77
2.7
8.0
105
14
25
167
40
14

3.99
0.00
3.99
81
3.0
8.5
99
13
23
170
43
16

4.30
0.00
4.30
85
3.1
8.7
102
12
17
161
43
16

4.26
0.00
4.26
87
3.0
8.5
101
11
13
135
39
15

4.22
0.00
4.22
89
2.9
8.3
102
10
13
110
36
14

4.09
0.00
4.09
90
2.8
7.5
101
8
11
105
35
13

3.97
0.00
3.97
91
2.8
6.8
100
7
10
100
34
12

3.94
0.00
3.94
93
2.7
6.7
98
7
11
102
35
12

4.02
0.00
4.02
96
2.6
7.4
98
7
10
110
37
12

4.10
0.00
4.10
99
2.5
8.1
97
7
10
119
40
13

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 208 of 241

B2 ASF
REF - B2 ASF

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

416

415

416

417

415

408

406

398

394

385

380

379

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.0

0.9

1.1

1.6

2.3

3.5

4.1

5.1

5.7

7.9

10.8

11.9

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

18
16
15
8

11
11
11
7

11
11
14
9

10
13
17
11

9
14
19
11

8
14
21
11

7
15
23
11

6
15
22
11

5
15
21
11

4
16
20
10

4
18
18
10

3
19
16
10

56

39

44

51

52

54

55

53

52

50

50

49

23
18
26
1
0

12
12
21
1
0

14
13
24
1
1

15
16
30
1
0

16
16
30
1
0

16
17
29
1
0

16
17
29
1
0

14
14
27
1
5

11
10
25
1
9

12
6
23
1
12

15
3
21
1
13

19
0
18
1
15

1
68

1
48

2
55

2
64

2
65

3
66

3
67

3
63

3
59

3
57

4
57

4
58

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.3

0.3
0.3
0.5

0.5
0.4
0.8

0.6
0.6
1.1

0.8
0.8
1.3

0.9
0.9
1.6

1.1
1.1
1.9

1.2
1.2
2.2

1.3
1.3
2.4

1.5
1.3
2.6

1.6
1.3
2.8

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

20.7

31.7

43.7

55.4

66.4

76.5

85.7

94.0

102.1

110.2

1.30
0.00
1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
7
69
16
5

0.91
0.00
0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6
41
13
3

1.03
0.00
1.03
41
0.6
10.9
9
8
5
40
15
3

1.17
0.00
1.17
46
0.7
10.9
15
10
7
39
20
4

1.21
0.00
1.21
55
0.7
9.6
21
14
9
45
25
4

1.14
0.00
1.14
63
0.7
7.5
25
19
12
46
26
4

1.06
0.00
1.06
71
0.7
5.3
25
25
15
48
27
4

0.96
0.00
0.96
76
0.7
4.5
26
28
16
49
25
3

0.86
0.00
0.86
82
0.6
3.6
26
30
15
51
22
3

0.81
0.00
0.81
87
0.6
2.8
26
30
14
55
22
3

0.81
0.00
0.81
91
0.6
1.9
27
28
14
61
25
3

0.81
0.00
0.81
95
0.6
1.0
27
27
14
67
27
3

Population

Million

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 209 of 241

B2 ASF
ASIA - B2 ASF
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2776

3248

3617

3986

4270

4584

4696

4769

4806

4899

4951

4968

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.5

2.5

4.1

6.6

9.7

16.5

19.7

26.3

30.4

46.2

67.6

76.7

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

22
14
2
6

31
26
5
10

41
43
10
16

46
72
22
24

38
83
32
43

29
95
42
62

21
106
51
81

20
115
55
86

19
124
60
92

19
138
61
97

18
156
59
103

17
174
57
108

43

72

110

163

195

227

259

277

295

314

335

356

33
17
4
0
0

49
34
7
1
0

65
55
15
1
1

77
88
29
2
3

101
79
50
4
7

126
71
71
6
12

151
63
92
9
17

184
38
96
9
18

218
14
100
10
20

245
1
97
11
22

265
1
89
11
24

286
0
80
11
26

1
55

2
92

4
140

6
205

11
253

15
302

19
351

22
368

24
386

29
404

35
425

42
445

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.3
0.1

1.0
0.7
0.2

1.7
1.4
0.4

2.6
2.3
0.8

3.8
3.0
1.4

5.2
3.7
2.2

6.9
4.2
3.2

8.9
4.4
4.1

11.2
4.4
5.1

13.8
4.4
6.1

16.5
4.4
6.9

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

43.3

80.4

129.2

186.8

251.1

320.8

394.3

471.6

552.7

637.6

1.15
0.37
1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4
235
33
7

1.78
0.26
2.03
125
2.6
25.3
5
5
7
270
37
9

2.73
0.35
3.07
144
3.2
39.6
21
14
12
326
41
13

3.94
0.40
4.34
159
4.0
56.4
40
22
18
369
46
18

5.08
0.34
5.42
176
4.5
59.3
66
30
25
438
50
22

5.84
0.26
6.10
191
4.9
52.1
95
38
32
470
52
24

6.59
0.18
6.77
206
5.2
45.0
130
46
36
502
54
27

7.03
0.13
7.16
212
5.3
31.7
164
51
36
533
57
27

7.47
0.07
7.54
217
5.4
18.4
199
54
33
565
60
28

7.89
0.04
7.92
220
5.5
11.0
233
54
27
611
64
29

8.27
0.02
8.30
221
5.6
9.3
267
53
29
672
70
30

8.66
0.01
8.67
221
5.6
7.7
302
51
30
734
76
32

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 210 of 241

B2 ASF
ALM - B2 ASF

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1216

1511

1890

2269

2603

3100

3289

3502

3615

3908

4080

4139

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

2.4

3.6

5.4

8.2

11.8

19.2

22.6

29.7

34.0

50.5

72.1

81.2

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

1
21
5
4

1
33
8
6

2
47
14
10

3
72
25
16

5
83
33
22

7
94
41
28

9
106
49
35

10
112
54
41

11
117
59
48

13
127
62
55

14
139
63
64

15
152
65
73

31

49

74

115

143

171

198

217

235

257

281

305

4
25
8
0
0

7
38
12
0
0

10
56
19
0
2

15
85
32
1
3

26
83
45
1
13

37
81
58
1
23

48
79
71
2
34

73
54
77
2
46

99
30
82
3
58

123
14
84
3
69

145
8
84
4
79

167
1
84
4
88

1
39

2
60

4
91

5
141

7
176

9
210

12
245

14
267

16
288

20
314

26
345

31
375

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.3
0.1

0.2
0.8
0.3

0.3
1.5
0.5

0.5
2.4
0.9

0.8
3.2
1.4

1.2
4.0
2.1

1.8
4.6
2.8

2.7
5.0
3.6

3.8
5.2
4.5

5.2
5.3
5.3

6.7
5.4
6.1

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

37.0

64.6

99.8

139.0

180.1

222.7

266.3

311.8

360.7

414.1

0.72
0.73
1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
3
396
48
7

1.01
0.82
1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5
404
55
8

1.52
0.78
2.30
105
1.6
15.6
12
7
5
451
61
10

2.38
0.85
3.22
128
1.9
22.5
20
10
7
499
71
14

3.00
0.82
3.82
143
2.2
27.5
32
14
9
590
81
18

3.28
0.74
4.02
151
2.5
26.3
54
20
20
624
88
20

3.55
0.66
4.21
160
2.7
25.2
84
27
16
658
95
22

3.84
0.47
4.31
166
2.9
21.4
120
33
17
674
104
23

4.13
0.28
4.41
173
3.0
17.5
157
37
15
689
114
24

4.50
0.18
4.68
179
3.1
15.2
190
39
11
717
127
25

4.93
0.19
5.12
185
3.2
14.4
211
39
13
757
143
27

5.36
0.19
5.55
191
3.3
13.5
223
37
14
797
160
29

Population

Million

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 211 of 241

B2 IMAGE
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B2 IMAGE
1990
Population

Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

5297

7869

9875

10360

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

21.0
0.0

41.2
0.0

75.7
0.0

198.7
0.0

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

50
40
98
50
35
0
272

35
36
106
102
99
0
377

15
46
124
143
177
0
504

9
73
128
160
355
0
726

Primary Energy
EJ
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
Non-commercial
NTE (Nuclear/Solar) & Hydro
Total

82
116
78

113
130
182

197
133
212

168
86
187

1
6
17
344

6
35
41
506

34
15
90
679

76
9
322
846

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.1
0.1
0.1

3.1
3.3
3.5

8.0
7.3
9.6

17.9
12.3
19.6

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Land Use

Million ha
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 212 of 241

5.99
1.11
7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38
879
139
31

75.3

6.90
1.07
7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40
877
141
32

161.1

7.68
1.50
9.19
396
9.3
52.6
786
42
48
755
147
36

259.1

8.47
1.94
10.40
469
11.5
47.7
299
55
55
632
152
39

366.4

9.39
1.67
11.06
491
11.8
42.4
272
70
60
615
151
43

480.2

10.31
1.40
11.71
514
12.2
44.8
315
88
76
597
149
47

600.6

11.23
1.13
12.36
536
12.5
41.7
346
107
79
580
147
51

722.6

10.84
1.20
12.04
540
12.5
42.5
413
120
80
596
149
49

841.7

10.52
1.26
11.78
544
12.6
43.3
483
128
74
612
151
48

958.2

10.20
1.33
11.52
548
12.6
41.7
548
130
63
630
154
46

1072.1

9.87
1.39
11.26
551
12.7
37.9
603
127
65
648
156
44

1183.5

9.55
1.46
11.01
555
12.7
34.0
649
121
69
665
158
43

B2 IMAGE

Page 213 of 241

B2 IMAGE
OECD90 - B2 IMAGE
Population

1990
Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

801

993

1022

1005

16.5

27.9

39.2

65.7

6
7
51
34
21

5
6
40
53
48

2
6
38
64
57

1
8
25
78
68

119

152

166

179

Primary Energy
EJ
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
Non-commercial
NTE (Nuclear/Solar) & Hydro
Total

24
55
51

22
45
96

27
39
97

17
20
88

1
6
10
147

2
5
25
195

6
2
35
206

10
1
62
197

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.1
0.1

0.9
0.8
1.8

1.6
1.7
4.6

2.6
2.5
9.1

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

63.2

98.6

135.4

172.8

210.7

248.4

285.2

321.1

356.0

390.0

2.83
0.00
2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
24
179
42
13

3.20
0.00
3.20
74
2.6
17.0
57
13
23
161
36
12

3.30
0.13
3.42
87
2.7
10.2
105
14
25
119
36
11

3.40
0.25
3.65
101
2.9
7.5
99
13
23
77
36
9

3.40
0.31
3.71
101
2.9
6.5
102
12
17
79
36
9

3.40
0.36
3.76
102
2.9
5.6
101
11
13
80
36
9

3.40
0.42
3.82
103
2.9
4.8
102
10
13
82
35
9

3.25
0.47
3.73
102
2.9
4.3
101
8
11
83
35
8

3.10
0.53
3.63
100
2.9
3.8
100
7
10
84
35
8

2.96
0.58
3.54
99
2.9
3.4
98
7
11
84
34
8

2.81
0.64
3.45
98
2.9
3.1
98
7
10
85
34
8

2.66
0.69
3.35
97
2.9
2.8
97
7
10
86
33
7

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 214 of 241

B2 IMAGE
REF - B2 IMAGE
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

413

432

435

407

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.0

2.1

3.5

5.7

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

2
11
18
12
7

1
4
15
9
13

0
3
10
9
14

0
3
7
9
13

50

41

36

31

26
26
21

16
21
19

13
13
16

6
8
13

0
2
2
78

0
1
5
63

3
0
8
53

3
0
10
40

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.6
0.6
0.5

1.1
1.0
1.1

1.6
1.5
2.0

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

19.1

24.9

29.3

32.8

35.5

37.6

39.7

42.3

45.2

48.4

1.30
0.00
1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
7
69
16
5

0.91
0.00
0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6
41
13
3

0.68
0.01
0.69
45
0.6
5.0
9
8
5
26
12
4

0.46
0.02
0.48
50
0.6
3.6
15
10
7
10
10
4

0.34
0.05
0.39
48
0.6
2.7
21
14
9
8
10
3

0.23
0.08
0.31
45
0.5
1.8
25
19
12
6
9
3

0.12
0.10
0.22
42
0.5
1.5
25
25
15
3
9
2

0.06
0.14
0.20
41
0.5
1.2
26
28
16
2
9
1

0.06
0.18
0.23
39
0.5
0.9
26
30
15
1
8
1

0.06
0.21
0.27
38
0.5
0.7
26
30
14
1
8
1

0.06
0.25
0.31
36
0.5
0.4
27
28
14
1
8
0

0.06
0.29
0.34
34
0.5
0.2
27
27
14
1
8
0

Primary Energy
EJ
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
Non-commercial
NTE (Nuclear/Solar) & Hydro
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 215 of 241

B2 IMAGE
ASIA - B2 IMAGE
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2790

4123

4956

4783

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.4

5.7

17.7

70.6

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

28
20
14
2
4

21
22
26
34
31

7
26
32
59
79

3
39
28
48
164

68

134

203

282

29
17
3

63
32
60

120
22
82

64
3
48

0
28
2
79

3
21
7
185

19
7
34
284

28
3
163
309

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

1.4
0.7
0.9

4.3
1.5
3.1

9.4
1.9
5.9

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

41.6

72.4

109.7

153.1

202.6

252.7

298.2

339.0

375.1

406.6

1.15
0.37
1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4
235
33
7

1.78
0.26
2.03
125
2.6
25.3
5
5
7
270
37
9

2.51
0.22
2.73
153
3.0
20.5
21
14
12
247
39
12

3.24
0.19
3.43
180
3.4
18.1
40
22
18
225
41
16

3.80
0.24
4.03
194
3.6
17.6
66
30
25
237
43
19

4.36
0.28
4.64
209
3.8
17.1
95
38
32
249
45
22

4.92
0.33
5.25
224
4.0
15.3
130
46
36
262
46
25

4.46
0.32
4.78
225
4.0
15.2
164
51
36
262
46
22

4.00
0.31
4.31
226
4.0
15.0
199
54
33
263
46
20

3.54
0.31
3.85
227
4.0
14.0
233
54
27
263
46
17

3.08
0.30
3.38
228
4.0
12.1
267
53
29
264
46
15

2.62
0.29
2.91
229
4.0
10.2
302
51
30
264
46
13

Primary Energy
EJ
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
Non-commercial
NTE (Nuclear/Solar) & Hydro
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 216 of 241

B2 IMAGE
ALM - B2 IMAGE
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1293

2321

3462

4165

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

2.1

5.5

15.3

56.7

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

14
2
15
3
2

8
4
25
6
7

6
10
45
11
26

4
24
68
25
111

35

51

99

233

4
18
3

12
31
8

38
59
17

80
55
38

0
14
3
41

1
8
4
64

5
6
12
137

36
4
86
300

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
1.2
0.3

1.0
3.0
0.8

4.4
6.4
2.5

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

37.2

63.1

92.0

121.5

151.8

183.8

218.5

255.8

295.8

338.4

0.72
0.73
1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
3
396
48
7

1.01
0.82
1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5
404
55
8

1.19
1.15
2.34
111
3.0
14.1
12
7
5
362
60
9

1.37
1.47
2.85
138
4.7
15.6
20
10
7
320
64
10

1.84
1.08
2.92
148
4.8
12.8
32
14
9
291
62
12

2.32
0.68
2.99
158
4.9
17.2
54
20
20
262
59
14

2.79
0.28
3.07
168
5.1
17.1
84
27
16
233
56
15

3.07
0.26
3.33
173
5.1
18.8
120
33
17
249
59
17

3.36
0.24
3.60
179
5.2
20.5
157
37
15
265
62
18

3.64
0.22
3.86
184
5.2
20.7
190
39
11
282
65
20

3.93
0.20
4.13
189
5.3
19.2
211
39
13
298
68
21

4.21
0.19
4.40
195
5.4
17.8
223
37
14
315
71
23

Primary Energy
EJ
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
Non-commercial
NTE (Nuclear/Solar) & Hydro
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 217 of 241

B2 MARIA
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B2 MARIA
1990
Population

Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

5262

6091

6891

7672

8372

8930

9367

9704

9960

10159

10306

10414

19.5

27.2

37.0

49.7

64.0

83.1

108.0

130.5

156.3

182.0

206.2

232.9

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

48
138
56
35
0
278

40
159
56
49
0
305

45
180
87
60
0
371

55
204
119
71
0
449

80
229
141
84
0
535

124
261
144
95
0
625

174
292
132
116
0
714

234
308
118
125
0
784

287
301
115
141
0
844

328
317
96
152
0
893

333
348
86
158
0
925

264
375
148
159
0
946

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

90
123
71
22
28

71
140
99
21
32

68
150
147
28
40

72
167
190
26
62

93
172
222
27
97

135
181
248
44
107

182
197
217
69
114

239
189
196
112
132

291
152
188
180
159

331
131
164
228
192

335
141
147
264
212

265
185
202
233
225

9
343

8
372

7
441

7
523

6
617

6
721

58
837

62
931

61
1031

60
1107

59
1159

58
1169

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.9
1.2
0.7

1.6
2.6
1.7

2.3
4.1
3.2

3.0
5.8
5.1

3.9
7.5
7.3

5.3
9.3
9.8

7.1
11.3
11.9

9.5
13.2
13.9

12.4
14.7
15.8

15.7
16.0
17.4

19.1
17.4
18.9

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

159.4

253.3

358.2

476.9

608.9

750.2

897.7

1048.3

1200.1

1351.8

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Land Use

Million ha
1451
3395
0
4138
4061
13045

1451
3395
0
4138
4061
13045

1457
3392
0
4138
4058
13045

1743
3114
0
4138
4051
13045

1937
2944
0
4138
4027
13045

2049
2904
0
4122
3970
13045

2079
2904
0
4124
3937
13045

1999
2904
81
4138
3924
13045

1868
2904
219
4138
3916
13045

1701
2904
396
4138
3907
13045

1578
2904
519
4138
3907
13045

1500
2904
597
4138
3907
13045

5.99
1.11
7.10

6.90
1.07
7.97

7.75
1.09
8.84

8.85
1.08
9.93

10.00
1.05
11.05

11.66
1.04
12.70

12.74
0.96
13.70

13.72
0.83
14.55

14.19
0.77
14.96

14.46
0.70
15.16

14.49
0.71
15.20

14.42
0.73
15.15

1672
32
38

883
25
40

786
42
48

299
55
55

272
70
60

315
88
76

346
107
79

413
120
80

483
128
74

548
130
63

603
127
65

649
121
69

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 218 of 241

B2 MARIA

Page 219 of 241

B2 MARIA
OECD90 - B2 MARIA

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

859

917

953

982

994

988

976

965

952

941

934

928

15.6

20.7

26.1

30.2

33.4

37.1

41.1

43.8

47.9

52.9

57.7

62.7

12
71
28
21
0
132

8
80
26
28
0
142

6
74
45
32
0
157

4
67
61
35
0
167

13
62
62
37
0
174

29
58
53
38
0
178

50
55
37
40
0
182

65
52
26
41
0
184

76
51
18
43
0
188

83
50
13
44
0
190

89
50
9
45
0
194

75
50
20
46
0
192

38
71
34
18
6

28
80
49
15
4

20
74
79
12
3

15
67
102
13
2

22
62
107
16
1

36
58
100
20
1

56
55
75
24
1

69
52
63
30
0

79
51
55
38
0

85
50
49
45
0

90
50
43
54
1

76
50
51
65
1

5
171

5
180

4
193

4
202

3
212

3
218

15
225

14
230

14
237

14
244

14
252

13
255

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.7
0.3

0.7
1.5
0.8

0.9
2.3
1.6

1.0
2.9
2.6

1.2
3.5
3.7

1.6
4.1
4.7

2.2
4.7
5.5

2.8
5.2
6.1

3.6
5.7
6.6

4.5
6.2
7.1

5.4
6.7
7.6

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

63.0

97.3

132.9

170.2

208.4

247.3

287.4

328.6

370.5

411.5

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Land Use

Million ha
378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

303
756
75
756
794
2684

243
756
134
756
794
2684

2.83
0.00
2.83

3.20
0.00
3.20

3.36
0.03
3.38

3.42
0.05
3.47

3.59
0.07
3.66

3.76
0.04
3.80

3.81
0.02
3.83

3.93
0.01
3.95

4.04
0.04
4.07

4.09
0.06
4.16

4.13
0.09
4.22

3.86
0.12
3.98

19
18
24

57
13
23

105
14
25

99
13
23

102
12
17

101
11
13

102
10
13

101
8
11

100
7
10

98
7
11

98
7
10

97
7
10

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 220 of 241

B2 MARIA
REF - B2 MARIA

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

413

415

417

418

416

411

406

396

389

384

381

379

0.9

1.2

1.4

1.7

2.6

4.1

6.7

8.1

10.0

11.5

12.9

14.5

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

13
17
21
7
0
58

9
13
24
8
0
54

6
12
30
8
0
56

4
11
36
9
0
60

9
12
40
10
0
71

16
13
43
12
0
84

27
14
44
15
0
100

45
14
31
16
0
105

58
14
22
17
0
110

66
14
15
17
0
112

72
14
11
17
0
113

68
14
12
17
0
111

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

19
19
27
3
1

13
14
33
2
1

9
12
40
2
0

6
11
47
2
0

10
12
55
3
0

17
13
62
3
0

28
14
65
4
0

45
14
53
5
0

58
14
44
7
0

67
14
37
8
0

72
14
31
10
0

68
14
32
13
0

1
69

1
64

1
64

1
68

1
81

1
96

3
114

3
120

3
126

3
129

3
130

3
130

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.3

0.3
0.3
0.6

0.4
0.4
1.0

0.5
0.6
1.5

0.6
0.7
2.0

0.7
0.8
2.6

1.0
1.0
3.3

1.5
1.1
3.8

2.1
1.2
4.2

2.7
1.4
4.6

3.4
1.5
4.9

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

20.1

29.1

39.3

52.0

67.7

86.1

106.4

127.9

149.8

171.7

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Land Use

Million ha
217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
815
722
1868

174
114
43
815
722
1868

139
114
78
815
722
1868

111
114
106
815
722
1868

89
114
128
815
722
1868

89
114
128
815
722
1868

1.30
0.00
1.30

0.91
0.00
0.91

0.88
0.02
0.90

0.90
0.01
0.91

1.14
-0.01
1.13

1.44
-0.03
1.41

1.78
-0.05
1.73

2.04
-0.09
1.95

2.25
-0.13
2.12

2.36
-0.19
2.16

2.40
-0.18
2.22

2.32
-0.16
2.16

0
7
7

4
4
6

9
8
5

15
10
7

21
14
9

25
19
12

25
25
15

26
28
16

26
30
15

26
30
14

27
28
14

27
27
14

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 221 of 241

B2 MARIA
ASIA - B2 MARIA
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2642

3062

3450

3796

4089

4316

4479

4613

4720

4813

4851

4888

1.2

2.9

6.3

13.0

19.9

28.1

37.8

46.9

57.0

67.2

77.1

87.9

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

20
26
2
4
0
52

20
39
2
8
0
70

31
66
4
12
0
113

43
93
7
18
0
160

51
109
15
24
0
198

68
125
15
27
0
236

79
139
14
35
0
266

93
148
15
37
0
293

102
146
23
43
0
314

111
148
27
47
0
333

96
162
38
49
0
345

67
176
64
48
0
355

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

28
14
3
1
13

26
23
5
5
22

36
38
8
14
33

46
57
14
11
53

54
54
21
9
85

70
58
29
21
89

80
69
23
35
85

94
72
22
49
86

102
52
27
76
101

111
43
30
94
110

96
42
40
105
124

67
65
65
81
128

1
61

1
82

1
130

1
181

1
222

1
266

17
309

20
343

20
379

20
408

20
426

19
427

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.1
0.0

0.5
0.4
0.1

0.9
0.8
0.2

1.4
1.3
0.3

1.9
1.9
0.5

2.6
2.4
0.8

3.4
3.1
1.0

4.3
3.9
1.2

5.3
4.4
1.5

6.5
4.8
1.8

7.4
5.2
2.2

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

41.0

70.6

104.8

143.3

186.8

234.3

283.1

331.7

379.2

426.0

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Land Use

Million ha
366
431
0
365
458
1621

366
431
0
365
458
1621

373
428
0
365
455
1621

380
425
0
365
451
1621

380
426
0
365
449
1621

380
426
0
365
449
1621

380
426
0
365
449
1621

380
426
0
365
449
1621

380
426
0
365
449
1621

380
426
0
365
449
1621

361
426
19
365
449
1621

343
426
37
365
449
1621

1.15
0.37
1.53

1.78
0.26
2.03

2.36
0.25
2.61

3.07
0.23
3.31

3.33
0.22
3.55

3.94
0.21
4.15

4.34
0.21
4.55

4.75
0.19
4.94

4.66
0.16
4.82

4.76
0.14
4.90

4.50
0.12
4.62

4.61
0.11
4.72

0
3
4

5
5
7

21
14
12

40
22
18

66
30
25

95
38
32

130
46
36

164
51
36

199
54
33

233
54
27

267
53
29

302
51
30

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 222 of 241

B2 MARIA
ALM - B2 MARIA
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1348

1697

2071

2476

2873

3214

3506

3730

3900

4021

4141

4220

1.7

2.4

3.2

4.9

8.1

13.8

22.4

31.6

41.4

50.4

58.5

67.8

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

3
24
5
3
0
35

2
27
4
6
0
38

2
28
7
8
0
45

4
34
15
10
0
63

7
47
24
14
0
91

11
65
32
18
0
127

19
85
37
26
0
167

31
94
46
31
0
202

51
91
52
39
0
233

68
105
41
44
0
258

76
122
29
47
0
274

54
135
51
48
0
288

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

6
18
7
0
8

4
23
12
0
6

3
26
19
0
4

4
32
28
0
7

7
44
40
0
11

12
53
58
0
17

19
60
55
5
28

31
50
58
27
46

51
35
61
59
57

68
25
47
81
82

76
35
33
95
88

54
57
54
74
96

2
41

2
46

1
53

1
72

1
103

2
141

23
190

25
238

24
288

24
326

23
350

23
357

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.2
0.1

0.1
0.4
0.2

0.1
0.7
0.4

0.2
1.0
0.7

0.2
1.4
1.1

0.4
1.9
1.6

0.6
2.5
2.2

0.9
3.0
2.8

1.4
3.4
3.4

2.1
3.6
3.9

2.8
4.0
4.2

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

35.3

56.3

81.1

111.3

146.0

182.5

220.8

260.2

300.5

342.7

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Land Use

Million ha
490
2095
0
2202
2086
6873

490
2095
0
2202
2086
6873

490
2095
0
2202
2086
6873

768
1820
0
2202
2083
6873

963
1648
0
2202
2060
6873

1075
1609
0
2186
2004
6873

1105
1609
0
2188
1971
6873

1067
1609
37
2202
1958
6873

972
1609
141
2202
1950
6873

832
1609
290
2202
1941
6873

825
1609
297
2202
1941
6873

825
1609
297
2202
1941
6873

0.72
0.73
1.45

1.01
0.82
1.83

1.16
0.80
1.96

1.46
0.79
2.24

1.95
0.77
2.72

2.52
0.81
3.33

2.81
0.78
3.60

2.99
0.72
3.71

3.24
0.70
3.94

3.25
0.69
3.94

3.46
0.67
4.14

3.63
0.66
4.29

0
4
3

2
4
5

12
7
5

20
10
7

32
14
9

54
20
20

84
27
16

120
33
17

157
37
15

190
39
11

211
39
13

223
37
14

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 223 of 241

B2 MINICAM
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B2 MINICAM
1990
Population

Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

5293

6147

7009

7880

8640

9304

9874

10216

10453

10585

10501

10418

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

20.7
na

27.4
na

36.3
na

47.4
na

62.1
na

80.3
na

102.0
na

127.9
na

156.0
na

186.3
na

219.2
na

255.1
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
45
121
52
35
0
253

0
55
121
60
51
0
286

0
67
127
73
73
0
339

0
79
140
91
102
0
411

0
90
138
101
137
0
465

0
97
156
107
181
0
541

0
103
192
109
234
0
637

0
85
228
118
292
0
723

0
75
264
132
352
0
823

0
73
300
152
413
0
937

0
73
327
157
470
0
1027

0
72
355
162
527
0
1117

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

88
131
70
24
0

110
130
81
24
5

128
134
111
28
10

143
145
159
34
15

176
134
186
46
19

201
147
209
62
24

218
185
229
82
28

191
228
260
93
38

175
270
292
105
43

170
309
325
120
45

169
338
330
150
44

167
367
335
181
43

24
336

24
375

32
443

47
542

65
626

88
731

116
858

155
965

195
1080

234
1203

255
1286

275
1370

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.1
0.1
0.1

1.1
1.4
0.9

2.3
2.8
1.9

3.7
4.1
3.1

5.3
5.5
4.9

7.2
7.0
6.9

9.3
8.6
9.1

11.2
10.8
11.6

13.1
13.3
14.4

14.8
16.1
17.4

16.5
19.4
20.7

18.2
22.7
24.0

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

159.6

256.5

366.4

485.3

612.6

747.7

888.7

1033.7

1180.7

1328.5

1472
3209
0
4173
4310
13164

1473
3347
2
4214
4128
13164

1491
3572
4
4140
3956
13164

1526
3885
6
3952
3795
13164

1525
4175
6
3705
3753
13164

1493
4393
7
3547
3724
13164

1431
4540
8
3480
3706
13164

1295
4391
22
3818
3639
13164

1175
4245
25
4092
3628
13164

1070
4101
16
4304
3673
13164

988
4067
10
4278
3821
13164

906
4033
4
4252
3970
13164

5.99
1.11

6.90
1.07

7.86
1.03

9.11
1.38

10.24
1.27

11.35
0.92

12.73
0.45

13.29
0.56

14.11
0.23

15.20
-0.53

15.86
-1.13

16.54
-1.72

7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38

7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40

8.88
350
8.0
76.6
786
42
48

10.48
391
9.1
80.6
299
55
55

11.51
430
10.4
85.2
272
70
60

12.27
469
11.9
87.1
315
88
76

13.18
498
13.2
86.4
346
107
79

13.85
499
13.7
71.9
413
120
80

14.34
509
14.4
59.0
483
128
74

14.67
528
15.3
47.7
548
130
63

14.73
548
16.7
41.1
603
127
65

14.82
569
18.1
34.6
649
121
69

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 224 of 241

B2 MINICAM

Page 225 of 241

B2 MINICAM
OECD90 - B2 MINICAM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

838

907

958

993

1003

1024

1023

1013

1006

1002

1003

1004

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

16.3
na

20.5
na

24.5
na

28.5
na

29.5
na

33.2
na

36.3
na

38.4
na

40.9
na

43.7
na

47.4
na

51.3
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
10
72
27
22
0
130

0
12
69
34
26
0
141

0
12
66
42
31
0
151

0
11
63
50
36
0
160

0
11
57
50
38
0
156

0
11
47
48
44
0
149

0
11
49
45
50
0
154

0
8
49
44
52
0
153

0
7
50
45
54
0
156

0
6
52
49
56
0
163

0
6
53
49
59
0
168

0
6
55
49
63
0
173

40
76
34
20
0

43
73
43
15
2

40
69
59
12
3

31
64
79
11
3

32
56
79
11
4

35
42
76
11
4

37
44
73
12
4

33
44
72
12
5

30
45
72
12
5

29
47
75
13
5

28
49
74
16
5

27
51
73
20
5

12
182

11
188

12
194

15
203

15
197

18
187

19
190

22
189

25
191

28
197

30
201

32
206

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.1
0.0

0.5
0.8
0.4

0.9
1.5
1.0

1.2
2.2
1.6

1.4
2.5
2.0

1.9
3.2
3.2

2.3
3.6
3.9

2.6
4.1
4.6

2.9
4.5
5.4

3.2
5.0
6.1

3.5
5.4
6.8

3.8
5.9
7.6

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

63.1

97.3

131.2

163.1

193.4

223.1

251.9

279.4

305.5

330.4

408
796
0
921
998
3123

412
820
2
931
958
3123

417
861
3
922
920
3123

423
918
3
894
885
3123

419
942
3
878
881
3123

399
1002
4
847
871
3123

375
1025
4
850
868
3123

339
998
8
926
853
3123

309
974
8
980
851
3123

286
955
6
1014
862
3123

261
945
3
1016
897
3123

236
935
1
1018
932
3123

2.83
0.00

3.20
0.00

3.28
0.12

3.26
0.19

3.16
0.17

2.98
0.07

3.02
0.00

2.90
0.03

2.86
-0.03

2.88
-0.21

2.90
-0.35

2.91
-0.49

2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
24

3.20
74
2.6
17.0
57
13
23

3.39
82
2.8
13.2
105
14
25

3.45
92
3.0
7.0
99
13
23

3.33
95
3.1
6.2
102
12
17

3.05
106
3.5
5.6
101
11
13

3.02
114
3.8
5.0
102
10
13

2.94
120
3.9
4.5
101
8
11

2.82
128
4.0
4.3
100
7
10

2.68
138
4.2
4.5
98
7
11

2.55
148
4.5
4.9
98
7
10

2.42
158
4.8
5.3
97
7
10

Population

Million

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 226 of 241

B2 MINICAM
REF - B2 MINICAM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

428

425

427

435

438

438

435

429

423

418

412

407

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.1
na

1.1
na

1.3
na

1.8
na

2.3
na

2.9
na

3.4
na

4.5
na

5.7
na

7.0
na

8.3
na

9.8
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
13
18
19
6
0
56

0
10
12
15
8
0
44

0
8
8
13
10
0
39

0
7
8
13
14
0
42

0
6
7
13
15
0
42

0
5
7
12
17
0
41

0
5
7
11
19
0
41

0
4
7
10
20
0
41

0
3
7
11
22
0
43

0
3
8
12
25
0
47

0
3
8
12
27
0
50

0
3
9
12
29
0
52

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

18
20
26
3
0

17
13
20
4
1

16
10
19
5
1

15
9
23
6
2

20
6
23
6
2

22
4
22
6
2

22
5
19
7
2

16
6
19
6
2

13
8
20
6
3

12
9
21
7
3

10
9
21
8
2

9
10
20
9
2

3
70

3
57

4
54

7
61

8
64

10
66

11
66

13
63

15
63

16
67

17
67

17
68

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.2

0.4
0.3
0.4

0.5
0.4
0.6

0.7
0.4
0.9

0.9
0.5
1.1

1.1
0.5
1.3

1.3
0.6
1.5

1.4
0.7
1.7

1.6
0.8
1.9

1.7
0.8
2.1

1.8
0.9
2.3

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

19.8

28.5

38.0

47.5

56.5

64.9

72.9

80.0

86.2

91.8

284
395
0
1007
691
2377

295
410
0
1016
656
2377

308
448
0
996
625
2377

324
511
0
945
597
2377

330
572
0
885
591
2377

326
615
0
850
587
2377

313
640
0
841
584
2377

277
592
0
935
573
2377

245
553
0
1008
571
2377

217
520
0
1060
580
2377

203
529
0
1038
607
2377

189
539
0
1017
633
2377

1.30
0.00

0.91
0.00

0.80
0.03

0.84
0.08

0.87
0.10

0.87
0.07

0.85
0.01

0.74
0.08

0.70
0.06

0.72
-0.06

0.71
-0.12

0.70
-0.18

1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
7

0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6

0.84
46
0.7
10.2
9
8
5

0.92
60
0.9
9.6
15
10
7

0.97
69
1.1
10.5
21
14
9

0.94
76
1.2
11.0
25
19
12

0.85
81
1.4
11.1
25
25
15

0.83
80
1.4
8.8
26
28
16

0.76
81
1.5
6.7
26
30
15

0.66
84
1.5
5.0
26
30
14

0.59
87
1.7
4.1
27
28
14

0.52
91
1.9
3.2
27
27
14

Population

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 227 of 241

B2 MINICAM
ASIA - B2 MINICAM
Population

1990
Million

2790

2000
3261

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

3707

4127

4463

4739

4953

5037

5070

5052

4932

4814

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.4
na

3.1
na

6.0
na

10.3
na

17.5
na

25.9
na

35.6
na

46.6
na

58.4
na

71.0
na

84.5
na

99.3
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
20
14
2
4
0
40

0
30
19
5
11
0
66

0
42
26
9
22
0
99

0
55
35
13
37
0
140

0
64
41
17
55
0
176

0
69
50
19
77
0
216

0
72
64
22
102
0
260

0
59
78
25
131
0
293

0
52
91
30
160
0
332

0
50
103
35
189
0
377

0
50
111
35
215
0
411

0
50
119
36
241
0
445

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

26
16
3
1
0

44
21
9
4
2

64
28
19
8
5

86
37
35
12
8

104
39
48
20
10

116
48
62
29
13

121
62
75
40
15

103
80
90
45
20

92
95
103
51
23

88
109
114
57
24

88
117
114
71
24

87
126
114
84
24

3
49

4
83

7
130

12
190

21
243

33
300

48
361

67
405

86
450

105
498

114
528

123
558

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.2
0.1

1.0
0.5
0.2

1.7
0.8
0.5

2.7
1.2
0.9

3.8
1.6
1.5

5.0
2.1
2.1

6.0
2.9
3.0

7.0
3.8
4.0

7.9
4.8
5.0

8.8
5.9
6.2

9.7
7.1
7.3

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

41.7

74.1

114.9

162.1

214.7

269.8

325.9

383.7

442.7

502.1

389
508
0
1168
664
2729

401
523
0
1143
632
2699

413
550
1
1104
603
2671

425
589
3
1052
577
2646

430
625
3
1010
572
2639

428
655
3
981
568
2634

417
679
3
965
566
2630

381
674
10
1000
555
2620

349
666
12
1039
554
2619

321
655
8
1082
562
2628

300
649
6
1110
588
2653

279
643
4
1139
614
2678

1.15
0.37

1.78
0.26

2.55
0.19

3.48
0.25

4.18
0.25

4.82
0.20

5.39
0.10

5.45
0.09

5.64
0.03

5.96
-0.08

6.11
-0.19

6.26
-0.29

1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4

2.03
125
2.6
25.3
5
5
7

2.74
133
2.9
35.9
21
14
12

3.73
142
3.2
45.6
40
22
18

4.43
154
3.6
48.5
66
30
25

5.02
163
4.0
48.2
95
38
32

5.49
171
4.4
44.7
130
46
36

5.54
164
4.5
34.6
164
51
36

5.67
160
4.7
26.2
199
54
33

5.88
160
5.0
19.4
233
54
27

5.92
163
5.4
16.0
267
53
29

5.96
167
5.8
12.5
302
51
30

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 228 of 241

B2 MINICAM
ALM - B2 MINICAM
Population

1990
Million

1236

2000
1554

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1917

2326

2725

3104

3463

3737

3953

4113

4153

4192

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.9
na

2.8
na

4.4
na

6.8
na

11.8
na

18.4
na

26.8
na

38.5
na

51.1
na

64.6
na

78.9
na

94.7
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
2
17
5
3
0
27

0
3
21
7
6
0
36

0
4
27
10
9
0
50

0
6
34
14
15
0
69

0
9
40
21
27
0
97

0
12
52
27
43
0
134

0
15
73
31
63
0
182

0
14
94
38
89
0
235

0
14
116
46
116
0
292

0
14
138
56
143
0
351

0
14
155
61
169
0
399

0
14
173
65
195
0
448

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

4
20
7
0
0

6
23
9
2
1

8
28
14
4
1

11
35
22
5
2

19
40
36
9
3

28
53
50
16
5

37
75
62
23
7

39
98
80
29
10

40
122
98
36
12

42
145
115
43
13

43
163
122
55
13

45
181
129
68
13

5
35

6
46

9
64

13
88

20
128

28
179

37
241

53
309

68
376

84
441

94
490

103
538

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.2
0.1

0.1
0.5
0.2

0.2
0.8
0.4

0.4
1.2
0.7

0.6
1.7
1.2

0.9
2.3
1.7

1.3
3.2
2.5

1.7
4.3
3.3

2.1
5.6
4.4

2.6
7.2
5.6

3.0
8.8
6.8

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

35.1

56.5

82.4

112.6

148.0

189.8

238.0

290.7

346.3

404.3

391
1510
0
3641
1957
7499

365
1594
0
3589
1882
7430

353
1713
0
3487
1808
7361

355
1867
0
3334
1735
7291

351
2012
0
3190
1714
7266

341
2121
0
3085
1698
7246

326
2197
0
3018
1688
7229

299
2127
4
3114
1658
7201

272
2052
4
3218
1651
7197

246
1970
2
3330
1669
7217

224
1943
1
3379
1730
7276

202
1916
-1
3428
1791
7336

0.72
0.73

1.01
0.82

1.22
0.69

1.53
0.85

2.03
0.75

2.68
0.58

3.47
0.34

4.19
0.35

4.92
0.17

5.64
-0.18

6.14
-0.47

6.67
-0.76

1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
3

1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5

1.91
89
1.6
14.2
12
7
5

2.38
97
2.0
15.3
20
10
7

2.78
112
2.6
16.9
32
14
9

3.26
123
3.1
19.3
54
20
20

3.82
131
3.7
22.6
84
27
16

4.54
135
3.9
21.0
120
33
17

5.09
140
4.3
18.7
157
37
15

5.46
146
4.6
15.8
190
39
11

5.67
149
5.1
13.2
211
39
13

5.91
153
5.7
10.5
223
37
14

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 229 of 241

B2HIGH MINICAM
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B2HIGH MINICAM
1990
Population

Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

5293

6147

7009

7880

8640

9304

9874

10216

10453

10585

10501

10418

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

20.7
na

27.4
na

36.3
na

47.3
na

61.8
na

79.8
na

101.1
na

126.5
na

154.0
na

183.6
na

215.7
na

250.7
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
45
121
52
35
0
253

0
57
124
62
53
0
295

0
72
131
72
80
0
355

0
89
143
84
116
0
433

0
104
143
81
159
0
486

0
118
159
74
209
0
560

0
131
193
62
268
0
654

0
119
225
58
339
0
740

0
111
258
57
415
0
841

0
108
292
60
497
0
957

0
105
318
52
574
0
1049

0
102
344
44
651
0
1141

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

88
131
70
24
0

115
133
83
25
6

145
139
115
31
12

178
149
165
42
17

263
114
180
60
27

362
91
185
79
40

474
80
181
100
56

540
74
183
108
86

592
77
191
121
110

630
88
206
142
128

700
72
173
161
150

771
57
140
180
172

24
336

24
386

27
468

32
582

40
684

55
812

75
966

115
1105

158
1248

202
1395

254
1510

305
1625

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.1
0.1
0.1

1.2
1.5
0.9

2.5
2.8
1.9

4.1
4.3
3.2

6.5
5.5
5.0

9.7
6.5
6.8

13.7
7.4
8.6

19.0
8.1
10.5

24.6
8.9
12.4

30.6
9.7
14.3

37.5
10.5
16.1

44.4
11.2
17.9

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

161.4

264.0

385.8

525.4

684.8

863.1

1055.4

1256.8

1464.6

1679.0

1472
3209
0
4173
4310
13164

1473
3347
3
4214
4127
13164

1491
3570
8
4140
3955
13164

1526
3880
13
3952
3794
13164

1522
4164
36
3701
3742
13164

1488
4370
74
3531
3701
13164

1423
4501
128
3441
3672
13164

1284
4326
233
3733
3588
13164

1163
4168
308
3962
3562
13164

1060
4027
352
4129
3596
13164

975
3957
430
4093
3710
13164

890
3886
507
4058
3824
13164

5.99
1.11

6.90
1.07

8.20
1.03

9.92
1.38

11.77
1.29

13.87
0.99

16.44
0.57

18.03
0.62

19.52
0.28

20.92
-0.44

21.97
-0.88

23.10
-1.32

7.10
310
6.7
70.9
1672
32
38

7.97
323
7.0
69.0
883
25
40

9.23
353
8.0
81.6
786
42
48

11.30
397
9.2
86.9
299
55
55

13.06
439
10.4
97.7
272
70
60

14.86
483
11.9
104.4
315
88
76

17.02
520
13.2
107.0
346
107
79

18.65
533
13.7
86.4
413
120
80

19.80
549
14.3
69.1
483
128
74

20.47
567
15.2
55.0
548
130
63

21.09
590
16.3
45.6
603
127
65

21.78
613
17.5
36.2
649
121
69

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 230 of 241

B2HIGH MINICAM

Page 231 of 241

B2HIGH MINICAM
OECD90 - B2HIGH MINICAM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Population

838

907

958

993

1003

1024

1023

1013

1006

1002

1003

1004

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

16.3
na

20.5
na

24.5
na

28.4
na

29.4
na

32.9
na

35.9
na

38.0
na

40.4
na

43.0
na

46.6
na

50.3
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
10
72
27
22
0
130

0
12
71
35
28
0
146

0
13
69
42
34
0
158

0
13
65
47
42
0
166

0
13
59
44
44
0
160

0
13
47
34
52
0
146

0
14
47
26
58
0
146

0
12
46
22
61
0
140

0
11
45
20
64
0
139

0
10
46
20
67
0
143

0
10
47
17
72
0
145

0
9
47
14
76
0
146

40
76
34
20
0

45
76
45
15
2

46
72
61
13
4

41
66
82
13
4

47
53
79
14
5

67
23
67
15
8

82
13
57
15
10

93
7
50
14
14

104
4
46
14
16

113
3
44
15
18

136
3
36
17
21

159
2
27
18
24

12
182

11
195

10
206

10
216

10
208

11
190

13
189

16
194

20
203

24
217

29
241

34
265

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.1
0.0

0.5
0.8
0.5

0.9
1.6
1.0

1.4
2.3
1.7

1.6
2.5
2.1

2.5
3.1
3.2

3.2
3.3
3.8

4.1
3.3
4.3

5.1
3.4
4.8

6.1
3.4
5.3

7.5
3.5
5.6

8.8
3.5
6.0

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

63.6

99.4

135.5

170.2

204.4

239.0

273.4

307.2

341.1

376.0

408
796
0
921
998
3123

412
819
3
931
958
3123

416
859
6
922
920
3123

422
915
7
894
885
3123

417
938
11
877
879
3123

397
993
24
843
866
3123

374
1013
36
840
860
3123

337
984
53
907
842
3123

308
960
65
954
837
3123

285
940
71
980
846
3123

260
924
84
981
874
3123

235
908
97
981
902
3123

2.83
0.00

3.20
0.00

3.39
0.12

3.46
0.19

3.39
0.17

3.30
0.09

3.42
0.03

3.41
0.05

3.44
-0.02

3.52
-0.18

3.73
-0.29

3.95
-0.40

2.83
73
2.6
22.7
19
18
24

3.20
74
2.6
17.0
57
13
23

3.50
82
2.8
14.8
105
14
25

3.65
91
3.0
6.7
99
13
23

3.56
95
3.1
5.5
102
12
17

3.39
105
3.5
4.8
101
11
13

3.45
113
3.8
4.4
102
10
13

3.47
117
3.8
3.5
101
8
11

3.43
123
3.9
3.2
100
7
10

3.33
130
4.1
3.7
98
7
11

3.44
141
4.4
4.3
98
7
10

3.55
152
4.6
5.0
97
7
10

Million

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 232 of 241

B2HIGH MINICAM
REF - B2HIGH MINICAM

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

428

425

427

435

438

438

435

429

423

418

412

407

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.1
na

1.1
na

1.3
na

1.8
na

2.3
na

2.8
na

3.4
na

4.4
na

5.6
na

6.9
na

8.2
na

9.6
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
13
18
19
6
0
56

0
10
11
14
8
0
44

0
8
8
12
11
0
38

0
7
8
11
15
0
41

0
6
7
10
16
0
39

0
6
6
8
18
0
38

0
6
6
5
19
0
37

0
5
7
5
22
0
39

0
5
7
5
26
0
42

0
4
8
5
29
0
45

0
4
8
4
31
0
46

0
4
8
3
33
0
47

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

18
20
26
3
0

17
13
20
4
1

17
10
18
5
1

18
9
22
7
2

38
3
20
7
3

61
0
17
7
3

86
0
13
7
5

113
0
12
7
7

147
0
11
7
9

188
0
12
8
10

236
0
9
8
12

283
0
6
8
13

3
70

3
57

3
55

4
62

5
76

6
94

7
117

9
149

12
187

14
231

16
280

18
328

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.2

0.4
0.3
0.4

0.5
0.4
0.6

0.9
0.4
0.8

1.4
0.4
1.0

2.1
0.4
1.2

3.1
0.4
1.3

4.5
0.4
1.4

6.1
0.4
1.5

8.3
0.4
1.6

10.6
0.4
1.7

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

19.9

29.0

40.1

53.5

69.4

88.7

112.3

140.5

174.0

213.7

284
395
0
1007
691
2377

295
410
0
1016
656
2377

308
448
1
996
625
2377

324
510
2
945
597
2377

331
569
5
884
589
2377

328
611
9
846
583
2377

317
636
15
831
578
2377

281
588
28
915
564
2377

250
551
36
979
561
2377

225
524
38
1023
568
2377

211
529
43
1005
590
2377

198
534
47
987
612
2377

1.30
0.00

0.91
0.00

0.83
0.03

0.90
0.08

1.13
0.10

1.39
0.08

1.69
0.02

2.06
0.08

2.53
0.05

3.11
-0.06

3.75
-0.11

4.45
-0.16

1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
7

0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6

0.86
47
0.7
10.3
9
8
5

0.98
61
0.9
10.3
15
10
7

1.22
75
1.1
12.6
21
14
9

1.47
88
1.3
14.3
25
19
12

1.71
99
1.4
15.3
25
25
15

2.14
108
1.4
12.8
26
28
16

2.59
123
1.5
10.3
26
30
15

3.06
144
1.5
7.7
26
30
14

3.64
162
1.7
5.9
27
28
14

4.29
179
1.9
4.1
27
27
14

Population

Million

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 233 of 241

B2HIGH MINICAM
ASIA - B2HIGH MINICAM
Population

1990
Million

2790

2000
3261

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

3707

4127

4463

4739

4953

5037

5070

5052

4932

4814

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.4
na

3.1
na

6.0
na

10.3
na

17.4
na

25.6
na

35.2
na

45.9
na

57.4
na

69.7
na

82.9
na

97.2
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
20
14
2
4
0
40

0
32
20
5
11
0
68

0
46
27
9
24
0
106

0
62
36
13
43
0
153

0
74
43
13
64
0
193

0
83
53
13
88
0
237

0
91
67
12
115
0
284

0
81
79
12
147
0
319

0
75
91
13
182
0
361

0
73
104
14
220
0
410

0
70
112
12
253
0
447

0
68
119
11
287
0
484

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

26
16
3
1
0

47
22
9
4
2

72
29
20
9
5

104
39
37
15
9

142
33
48
25
14

182
28
56
36
20

224
25
61
47
27

251
21
63
50
38

254
21
68
56
48

234
25
75
65
55

226
19
62
73
63

218
12
49
81
71

3
49

4
87

5
141

6
210

10
272

17
339

27
411

45
470

65
513

86
540

109
551

132
562

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.5
0.2
0.1

1.1
0.5
0.2

1.9
0.8
0.5

3.2
1.1
1.0

4.9
1.4
1.5

6.8
1.7
2.0

9.3
1.9
2.7

11.8
2.2
3.3

14.2
2.4
4.0

16.5
2.6
4.7

18.8
2.8
5.3

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

42.6

78.0

125.1

182.5

250.2

326.2

406.6

488.2

568.4

646.7

389
508
0
1168
664
2729

401
523
0
1143
632
2699

413
550
2
1104
603
2671

425
588
5
1052
577
2646

426
621
15
1007
569
2637

418
647
28
973
563
2630

403
668
43
951
559
2624

365
662
67
972
545
2611

332
654
84
997
541
2608

304
642
95
1026
547
2614

278
628
117
1043
565
2632

252
615
139
1060
584
2650

1.15
0.37

1.78
0.26

2.72
0.19

3.92
0.26

4.97
0.26

6.05
0.22

7.14
0.14

7.80
0.11

8.14
0.04

8.18
-0.05

8.04
-0.11

7.90
-0.17

1.53
113
2.3
17.7
0
3
4

2.03
125
2.6
25.3
5
5
7

2.92
134
2.9
38.4
21
14
12

4.18
145
3.2
50.6
40
22
18

5.23
155
3.6
57.0
66
30
25

6.26
166
4.0
59.1
95
38
32

7.28
178
4.4
56.9
130
46
36

7.90
183
4.5
43.7
164
51
36

8.19
179
4.7
32.8
199
54
33

8.12
166
4.9
24.3
233
54
27

7.93
160
5.2
19.4
267
53
29

7.73
154
5.4
14.4
302
51
30

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 234 of 241

B2HIGH MINICAM
ALM - B2HIGH MINICAM
Population

1990
Million

1236

2000
1554

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1917

2326

2725

3104

3463

3737

3953

4113

4153

4192

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

1.9
na

2.8
na

4.4
na

6.8
na

11.8
na

18.4
na

26.6
na

38.2
na

50.6
na

63.9
na

78.0
na

93.6
na

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

0
2
17
5
3
0
27

0
3
22
7
6
0
37

0
5
27
10
10
0
52

0
7
35
13
17
0
72

0
11
41
17
32
0
101

0
15
54
19
51
0
139

0
20
73
19
76
0
188

0
20
94
19
109
0
242

0
20
114
20
144
0
299

0
21
135
22
181
0
359

0
21
152
20
218
0
411

0
21
170
17
255
0
463

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

4
20
7
0
0

6
23
10
2
1

10
28
15
4
1

14
36
24
7
3

30
37
36
14
5

53
40
45
22
9

83
42
50
31
15

82
46
58
37
27

86
52
66
44
37

96
59
75
54
44

103
51
66
64
55

110
43
58
73
65

5
35

6
47

8
67

11
95

15
137

21
189

28
249

44
293

61
345

79
407

100
439

122
471

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.2
0.1

0.1
0.5
0.2

0.3
0.8
0.4

0.5
1.2
0.7

1.0
1.6
1.2

1.6
2.0
1.6

2.4
2.4
2.2

3.3
2.9
2.8

4.2
3.5
3.5

5.2
4.0
4.2

6.2
4.5
4.9

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

35.3

57.5

85.2

119.2

160.8

209.3

263.0

320.8

381.1

442.6

391
1510
0
3641
1957
7499

365
1594
0
3589
1882
7430

353
1713
0
3487
1808
7361

355
1867
0
3333
1735
7290

353
2013
1
3186
1710
7263

344
2118
12
3074
1690
7239

330
2183
34
2996
1675
7217

301
2091
85
3067
1636
7182

274
2004
123
3147
1623
7171

247
1921
148
3234
1635
7185

226
1875
186
3263
1681
7230

205
1829
223
3292
1727
7275

0.72
0.73

1.01
0.82

1.27
0.69

1.64
0.85

2.28
0.77

3.13
0.61

4.18
0.39

4.76
0.38

5.40
0.20

6.11
-0.15

6.45
-0.37

6.81
-0.59

1.45
77
1.2
10.5
0
4
3

1.83
85
1.3
12.8
2
4
5

1.96
90
1.6
15.1
12
7
5

2.49
99
2.1
16.2
20
10
7

3.05
114
2.6
19.5
32
14
9

3.74
124
3.1
23.3
54
20
20

4.58
129
3.7
27.5
84
27
16

5.14
125
4.0
23.4
120
33
17

5.60
124
4.3
19.7
157
37
15

5.96
127
4.6
16.4
190
39
11

6.08
127
5.1
13.1
211
39
13

6.22
128
5.6
9.7
223
37
14

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

Land Use

Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total

Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)


Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 235 of 241

B2C MARIA
IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B2C MARIA
1990
Population

Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

5262

6091

6891

7672

8372

8930

9367

9704

9960

10159

10306

10414

19.5

27.2

37.0

49.8

64.1

83.2

108.1

130.5

156.2

181.5

205.4

231.7

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

48
138
56
35
0
278

48
148
61
49
0
305

67
158
88
60
0
373

107
187
87
71
0
451

161
217
75
84
0
537

221
251
60
97
0
629

277
248
79
114
0
718

322
284
58
124
0
788

356
291
67
134
0
847

381
325
47
143
0
895

394
354
33
147
0
928

395
377
23
153
0
949

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

90
123
71
22
28

79
134
105
19
27

90
141
151
16
34

124
158
170
13
47

175
191
183
11
47

232
197
193
10
76

287
162
198
8
101

331
178
197
7
117

363
163
223
12
136

387
172
223
10
158

399
185
223
9
172

400
206
228
8
173

9
343

8
372

7
438

7
519

6
613

5
714

58
815

63
893

66
962

66
1015

64
1052

62
1077

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.9
1.2
0.7

1.7
2.6
1.8

2.6
4.0
3.3

3.8
5.6
5.0

5.6
7.5
6.8

7.9
9.4
8.7

10.8
11.1
10.7

14.1
12.8
12.7

17.7
14.5
14.9

21.6
16.2
17.2

25.6
18.0
19.4

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

75.3

160.8

259.8

377.4

515.4

666.7

828.4

1001.1

1182.7

1371.4

1565.7

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Land Use

Million ha
1451
3395
0
4138
4061
13045

1451
3395
0
4138
4061
13045

1458
3392
0
4138
4058
13045

1744
3113
0
4138
4051
13045

1940
2925
0
4138
4043
13045

2051
2904
0
4100
3990
13045

2079
2904
0
4099
3963
13045

2013
2904
66
4131
3931
13045

1906
2904
173
4138
3924
13045

1777
2904
302
4138
3924
13045

1691
2904
388
4138
3924
13045

1691
2904
388
4138
3924
13045

5.99
1.11
7.10

6.90
1.07
7.97

8.03
1.09
9.12

9.56
1.11
10.67

11.73
1.12
12.85

13.49
1.26
14.76

14.28
1.23
15.51

15.73
1.09
16.81

16.65
1.09
17.74

17.46
1.11
18.57

18.04
1.12
19.16

18.57
1.14
19.71

1672
32
38

883
25
40

786
42
48

299
55
55

272
70
60

315
88
76

346
107
79

413
120
80

483
128
74

548
130
63

603
127
65

649
121
69

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 236 of 241

B2C MARIA

Page 237 of 241

B2C MARIA
OECD90 - B2C MARIA

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

859

917

953

982

994

988

976

965

952

941

934

928

15.6

20.7

26.1

30.2

33.4

37.1

41.2

43.8

47.9

52.8

57.5

62.5

12
71
28
21
0
132

8
74
32
28
0
142

6
68
51
32
0
157

21
63
48
35
0
167

44
59
34
38
0
175

62
56
24
39
0
180

73
53
17
40
0
183

81
51
12
41
0
185

88
50
8
42
0
189

92
50
6
43
0
191

96
50
4
44
0
194

96
50
3
45
0
194

38
71
34
18
6

28
74
55
15
4

21
68
85
12
3

33
63
91
11
2

53
59
84
9
1

70
55
78
8
2

81
50
63
7
4

88
47
61
6
5

94
42
58
6
9

98
36
59
5
14

101
27
61
5
23

100
34
63
5
16

5
171

5
180

4
193

4
203

3
210

3
216

14
219

14
221

17
225

16
229

15
232

15
233

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.4
0.7
0.3

0.7
1.5
0.9

0.9
2.1
1.7

1.2
2.8
2.6

1.7
3.4
3.5

2.4
3.9
4.2

3.2
4.4
4.9

4.1
4.9
5.5

5.1
5.3
6.1

6.0
5.7
6.7

7.0
5.9
7.3

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

30.1

63.0

98.4

137.2

179.3

222.6

265.8

309.6

353.8

397.8

442.5

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Land Use

Million ha
378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

378
756
0
756
794
2684

354
756
23
756
794
2684

312
756
65
756
794
2684

251
756
127
756
794
2684

202
756
176
756
794
2684

202
756
176
756
794
2684

2.83
0.00
2.83

3.20
0.00
3.20

3.35
0.03
3.38

3.64
0.05
3.69

3.99
0.08
4.07

4.25
0.11
4.36

4.21
0.08
4.29

4.29
0.06
4.36

4.32
0.09
4.40

4.31
0.12
4.42

4.24
0.14
4.39

4.39
0.17
4.56

19
18
24

57
13
23

105
14
25

99
13
23

102
12
17

101
11
13

102
10
13

101
8
11

100
7
10

98
7
11

98
7
10

97
7
10

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 238 of 241

B2C MARIA
REF - B2C MARIA

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

413

415

417

418

416

411

406

396

389

384

381

379

0.9

1.2

1.4

1.7

2.6

4.2

6.8

8.2

10.0

11.5

12.9

14.5

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

13
17
21
7
0
58

9
13
24
8
0
54

7
12
29
8
0
56

15
11
26
9
0
60

26
12
24
10
0
72

43
12
17
12
0
85

61
9
17
15
0
101

68
7
15
16
0
106

75
5
15
16
0
111

78
7
10
16
0
113

80
9
7
16
0
113

81
11
5
17
0
113

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

19
19
27
3
1

13
14
33
2
1

10
12
39
2
0

17
11
38
1
0

27
12
40
1
0

44
12
38
1
0

61
9
40
1
1

69
6
40
0
1

75
4
40
0
1

79
7
36
0
0

81
9
33
0
0

81
11
32
0
0

1
69

1
64

1
65

1
68

1
81

1
96

3
114

3
119

3
124

3
126

3
126

3
126

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.3

0.3
0.3
0.6

0.4
0.4
1.0

0.6
0.6
1.4

0.9
0.7
1.8

1.3
0.8
2.1

1.9
0.9
2.5

2.6
1.0
2.9

3.3
1.0
3.3

4.1
1.1
3.7

4.9
1.2
4.0

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

11.0

20.1

29.9

42.1

58.0

78.2

101.4

126.2

152.2

178.9

206.2

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Land Use

Million ha
217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
815
722
1868

217
114
0
815
722
1868

174
114
43
815
722
1868

139
114
78
815
722
1868

111
114
106
815
722
1868

103
114
114
815
722
1868

103
114
114
815
722
1868

1.30
0.00
1.30

0.91
0.00
0.91

0.89
0.02
0.91

1.02
0.03
1.05

1.33
0.05
1.38

1.74
0.06
1.81

2.16
0.08
2.24

2.30
0.10
2.40

2.44
0.11
2.55

2.52
0.13
2.65

2.56
0.15
2.70

2.58
0.16
2.74

0
7
7

4
4
6

9
8
5

15
10
7

21
14
9

25
19
12

25
25
15

26
28
16

26
30
15

26
30
14

27
28
14

27
27
14

Population

Million

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 239 of 241

B2C MARIA
ASIA - B2C MARIA
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2642

3062

3450

3796

4089

4316

4479

4613

4720

4813

4851

4888

1.2

2.9

6.3

12.9

19.9

28.1

37.8

46.8

56.9

67.0

76.7

87.3

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

20
26
2
4
0
52

28
34
2
8
0
71

48
54
1
12
0
115

61
82
1
16
0
161

75
100
1
23
0
199

89
119
1
27
0
237

98
135
1
34
0
267

109
148
0
36
0
294

116
158
0
40
0
314

123
167
0
42
0
333

126
176
0
44
0
346

126
183
0
46
0
355

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

28
14
3
1
13

34
23
5
2
17

52
38
8
1
26

64
55
14
1
42

77
76
21
1
43

91
70
28
1
70

99
58
29
0
91

110
58
35
0
100

116
56
41
6
110

123
56
49
4
116

126
74
54
3
105

126
101
59
3
85

1
61

1
82

1
127

1
176

1
219

1
260

17
295

20
324

20
349

21
369

20
383

20
393

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.1
0.0

0.6
0.4
0.1

1.1
0.8
0.2

1.8
1.3
0.3

2.6
2.1
0.5

3.5
2.8
0.8

4.4
3.3
1.1

5.5
3.9
1.4

6.7
4.5
1.8

7.9
5.0
2.3

9.2
5.8
2.9

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

17.8

42.2

74.3

114.3

160.2

207.5

256.6

308.4

362.9

421.4

485.3

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Land Use

Million ha
366
431
0
365
458
1621

366
431
0
365
458
1621

373
428
0
365
455
1621

380
425
0
365
451
1621

380
426
0
365
449
1621

380
426
0
365
449
1621

380
426
0
365
449
1621

380
426
0
365
449
1621

380
426
0
365
449
1621

379
426
1
365
449
1621

350
426
30
365
449
1621

350
426
30
365
449
1621

1.15
0.37
1.53

1.78
0.26
2.03

2.61
0.25
2.85

3.33
0.23
3.56

4.21
0.22
4.43

4.54
0.21
4.75

4.53
0.19
4.72

4.90
0.18
5.08

5.11
0.18
5.29

5.43
0.17
5.61

5.94
0.15
6.09

6.54
0.14
6.69

0
3
4

5
5
7

21
14
12

40
22
18

66
30
25

95
38
32

130
46
36

164
51
36

199
54
33

233
54
27

267
53
29

302
51
30

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 240 of 241

B2C MARIA
ALM - B2C MARIA
Population

1990
Million

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1348

1697

2071

2476

2873

3214

3506

3730

3900

4021

4141

4220

1.7

2.4

3.2

4.9

8.1

13.9

22.3

31.7

41.4

50.2

58.2

67.3

Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total

3
24
5
3
0
35

2
26
4
6
0
38

5
25
7
8
0
45

10
31
12
10
0
63

17
45
16
14
0
91

28
63
18
18
0
127

46
51
45
25
0
167

64
77
31
31
0
203

77
77
43
36
0
234

87
100
30
41
0
258

92
118
21
43
0
275

94
133
15
46
0
287

Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass

6
18
7
0
8

4
23
12
0
6

7
22
19
0
4

11
30
28
0
3

17
44
39
0
2

28
60
50
0
4

46
45
67
0
6

64
68
62
0
10

77
61
84
0
17

87
73
78
0
27

92
74
75
0
44

94
61
74
0
72

2
41

2
46

1
53

1
73

1
103

1
142

24
188

25
228

26
264

26
291

25
310

24
325

Cumulative Resources Use ZJ


Coal
Oil
Gas

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.2
0.1

0.1
0.4
0.2

0.2
0.6
0.4

0.3
0.9
0.7

0.4
1.4
1.1

0.7
2.0
1.6

1.2
2.4
2.2

1.8
3.1
2.8

2.6
3.7
3.7

3.5
4.4
4.5

4.4
5.2
5.2

Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC

0.0

16.4

35.4

57.2

83.8

117.8

158.4

204.6

256.9

313.8

373.2

431.7

Carbon Sequestraction

GtC

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Land Use

Million ha
490
2095
0
2202
2086
6873

490
2095
0
2202
2086
6873

490
2095
0
2202
2086
6873

769
1818
0
2202
2084
6873

965
1630
0
2202
2076
6873

1076
1609
0
2164
2024
6873

1104
1609
0
2163
1997
6873

1104
1609
0
2195
1965
6873

1075
1609
30
2202
1958
6873

1036
1609
68
2202
1958
6873

1036
1609
68
2202
1958
6873

1036
1609
68
2202
1958
6873

0.72
0.73
1.45

1.01
0.82
1.83

1.18
0.80
1.98

1.57
0.79
2.36

2.19
0.77
2.96

2.96
0.88
3.84

3.39
0.87
4.26

4.23
0.75
4.98

4.78
0.71
5.49

5.20
0.69
5.90

5.30
0.68
5.98

5.07
0.66
5.73

0
4
3

2
4
5

12
7
5

20
10
7

32
14
9

54
20
20

84
27
16

120
33
17

157
37
15

190
39
11

211
39
13

223
37
14

GNP/GDP (mex)
Trillion US$
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)

EJ

Other Renewables
Total

Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC
Other CO2
GtC
Total CO2
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N2O total
MtN2O-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN

Page 241 of 241

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